The biggest news in English Football was the decision made by Arsene Wenger to step down as manager of Arsenal after twenty-two years in charge of the club.
While Wenger has rightly been lauded in many quarters since the decision was revealed, I also think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Arsenal have slid massively in the last few years of his tenure at the Emirates Stadium.
Stubbornness has not helped Wenger who has refused to make the signings that everyone has been crying out for which would have made Arsenal more competitive. And it does feel this decision is a few years later than most Arsenal fans would have wanted, although at least Wenger is going to be given a positive send off which is the least he deserves.
Winning the Europa League would be the perfect way to underline his time at Arsenal, but that is for another day with another round of Premier League games to be played this weekend. We also have two FA Cup Semi Final ties to be played on Saturday and Sunday.
West Brom v Liverpool Pick: This is a chance for Liverpool to put the Premier League to the back of their minds and concentrate fully on an assault to win the Champions League if they are able to win on Saturday.
A win would likely be enough to secure a top four spot in the Premier League which is the main goal for Liverpool this season and they are certainly good enough to earn that at The Hawthorns.
You have to consider the fact that Liverpool could make changes to the starting eleven for this fixture as they are facing Roma in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg on Tuesday. If they rest some of the big names for that First Leg then winning at The Hawthorns will be that much more difficult, but I am going to second guess Jurgen Klopp and expect a strong team to be named to secure a top four berth and then rest players the rest of the way.
They will need to be at their best to beat West Brom after the relegation threatened club secured a stunning 0-1 win at Old Trafford last Sunday. That should focus the Liverpool minds, but I also think West Brom were given a lot of belief by a poor Manchester United performance.
In recent weeks West Brom have not had a lot of belief in what they are trying to do and that saw them lose 9 games in a row before sacking Alan Pardew. The players are playing for Darren Moore, but they were poor two weeks ago in a 1-1 draw with Swansea City and this Liverpool team are capable of putting them to the sword and then being able to rest their key men in the second half.
I expect that will be the request from Klopp and Liverpool are capable of winning with some comfort on the day. West Brom can score goals at home, but Liverpool have defended much better in recent weeks and I will back the away side to give themselves a boost for the Champions League with a good looking win on Saturday lunch time.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The end of the last couple of Premier League seasons have seen Watford struggle to maintain their concentration once their relegation battle has been concluded with a success. The same has happened this season as they have been beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and that won't be good news for those teams still fighting against relegation.
The reason for that is Watford host Crystal Palace this weekend and the away side come in with plenty of motivation and also positive form as they bid for another victory. The three points on offer could be enough for Crystal Palace to ensure they avoid relegation and they are playing well enough to do that.
Wilfried Zaha is in fine form and Crystal Palace have their attacking players back to give them a boost in confidence. They need the goals because Crystal Palace have continued to struggle defensively and Watford have been stronger at home which suggests they could take advantage of those problems at the back.
Watford have scored in their last 13 home games in all competitions and I think they are still showing enough to think they can create chances. However Watford have not looked that convincing defensively which is where Crystal Palace should have their joy and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals in this one.
Both teams could easily score and the three points on offer should mean Crystal Palace are pushing to score the goals to earn those points. With Watford at home they will be pressed by the fans to attack too and I can see there being enough chances in this fixture to see goals arrive.
Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a long time coming, but Arsene Wenger has finally decided to step down as manager of Arsenal with the team on course for their lowest finish under his tenure. While most Arsenal fans will be happy, the players have a chance to show their appreciation for the manager with a strong end to the season and a possible return to the Champions League.
The team selection did not help Arsenal's cause in their defeat at Newcastle United last weekend, but it was also a real indicator of how they have played away from home. Once again they lost a game in which they had led and that has been a source of frustration for Arsene Wenger all season.
Playing at the Emirates Stadium has been much more positive for the Arsenal players and it has been suggested a strong team will be picked even with the Atletico Madrid Europa League tie in mind.
Wenger wants momentum and he wants his key players to be mentally ready for the Europa League Semi Final so he will also expect a big performance from those players. It can be difficult for players to avoid the distraction of bigger games to come, but the loss last weekend should be enough to keep them focused.
They will need to do that against a West Ham United team who are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games and still searching for one more win to ensure they avoid the drop. David Moyes will look to set his team up to frustrate their hosts, but West Ham United have not been as good at doing that away from home although they have found a way to score goals.
Unfortunately they do concede plenty of chances and a strong Arsenal team can go into the Europa League Semi Final First Leg with some positives behind them. I will look for the home team to have a little too much creativity in the final third and break down this West Ham United team for a win by a couple of goals on the day.
Stoke City v Burnley Pick: The performances from Stoke City under Paul Lambert have not been bad, but a lack of goals and losing winning positions have put them on the brink of being relegated from the Premier League. Anything less than a win on Sunday may be costly for Stoke City who probably need 3 wins from their final 4 League games to have any chance of escaping the drop.
This may be a fixture that represents a good chance to earn the first of those wins after Burnley had a tough evening on Thursday competing against Chelsea. There won't be many changes to the Burnley starting eleven which means tiredness could work against them as this game goes on, but Burnley have proven themselves to be defensively resolute.
The home team have simply not scored enough goals to be warranted as a pretty short favourite to win this game, especially when you think of the lack of wins under Paul Lambert.
Stoke City do get on the front foot and have some talented players that could cause problems for Burnley, but I imagine Sean Dyche will have his players well drilled for this fixture even on the short turnaround from Thursday's game.
Burnley may not have the best recent record at Stoke City, but they have played with a lot more belief than their hosts all season. As long as Burnley remain as tough as they have been defensively, I think they will have an opportunity to at least earn a point here and backing the visitors with a start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go.
Manchester City v Swansea City Pick: A party atmosphere in the stands can sometimes filter down to the players, but I would be surprised if Pep Guardiola allows his Manchester City team to ease off the throttle in their final League games. Instead I imagine this is a time when he will want this team to lay down a marker for next season and underline their desire for future success too.
The game on Sunday does look a good opportunity for Manchester City to express themselves as they go up against a Swansea City team who have not been as secure defensively as they once looked under Carlos Carvalhal. The Swans have kept the points ticking over to keep their head above water in the Premier League, but they were clearly second best in a 2-0 loss at Manchester United at the end of March and it is a big test for them here.
They don't have anything to lose so Swansea City can try and express themselves, but that might leave them a little open to a Manchester City team who have been in imperious form at home for much of the season.
And it could be dangerous to be too open against a team who are trying to snap a 3 game losing run at the Etihad Stadium, although I am not convinced Swansea City will get much here regardless of the system employed.
If you defend in numbers you can limit the damage done by the home team, but Manchester City are well rested and ready to celebrate and I can see this being a comfortable win for the home team. They have struggled to win their recent home games against Swansea City, but this Manchester City team look much stronger than recent editions and I think it could be a long afternoon for their visitors.
Manchester City won 0-4 at the Liberty Stadium, but they could settle for a margin of one less than that. Regardless, I am going to back Manchester City to cover a big Asian Handicap as they celebrate the title with a stylish win.
Everton v Newcastle United Pick: For most fans the difference between finishing 9th and 10th in the Premier League table may not be here nor there, but for clubs there is a financial reward for a higher League finish. That may be the only thing on the mind of those in the board room when Everton host Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, but the players should be free enough to perform as they would like.
Newcastle United are on a very good run of 4 consecutive wins which has pulled them away from the bottom three, and they won their last away game at Leicester City. That should give them enough belief they can head to Goodison Park and pose problems for an Everton team who have not won any of their last 3 League games.
However you can't ignore the fact that Everton have played 2 of the top four in that time and they have generally performed better at home. Some of the football has been disappointing under Sam Allardyce and that has put the fans off from backing him to stay in charge of the club, but no one can deny it has mainly been effective to make sure Everton were not involved in a relegation battle.
The home form has generally been pretty good under Allardyce and only the 1-1 home draw with West Brom under the former England manager could be seen as a poor result. Everton have beaten West Ham United, Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Brighton at home since Allardyce took over as manager and the other failures to win games here outside of the West Brom game have been against top five clubs.
Everton have a strong record at home against Newcastle United and I think they can win this fixture too. I don't doubt that Newcastle United are playing well enough to earn a result here, but I lean towards Everton and backing them on the Asian Handicap will return half the stake if this does end in a draw.
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is a heatwave in the United Kingdom with some unusually high April temperatures in London which could play a real part in this FA Cup Semi Final. The fans will be hoping the football on the pitch can match the weather as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet for a place in the Cup Final on May 19th.
Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some questions to answer having had an up and down week in the Premier League in the chase for one of the top four positions.
At least Manchester United bounced back from a stunning loss to West Brom by beating Bournemouth on Wednesday night whereas Tottenham Hotspur have failed to win either of their last 2 League games.
Losing back to back games at Wembley Stadium will also be on the mind of the Tottenham Hotspur players despite their familiarity with what has been 'home' in the 2017/18 season. That has given Tottenham Hotspur an edge in this Semi Final and has to be considered one of the main reasons they are favoured to beat Manchester United having done the same in the Premier League in January.
That game was changed completely after Tottenham Hotspur scored in the opening seconds, but this time Manchester United may come in with more belief having beaten the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City recently. The loss to West Brom was a strange day, but the bounce back at Bournemouth and 7 wins from 9 games means Manchester United do come in with confidence.
Tottenham Hotspur's familiarity with Wembley Stadium may give them plenty of belief of their own and I think this will be a good Cup Semi Fina.
My lean is that Manchester United do earn the result to take them through to the FA Cup Final for the second time in three years. However Tottenham Hotspur won't go down without a fight either and the attacking players should have opportunities in this one with every chance of seeing three goals shared out by the teams.
Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This FA Cup Semi Final may mean a great deal more to Chelsea than Southampton in the grand scheme of things, but playing at Wembley Stadium with a trophy just two games away is not something to ignore for the Southampton players.
This is a team who reached the League Cup Final last season but things have taken a rapid downward swing since that day. Now it looks like Southampton are destined for relegation down to the Championship as they have slumped in the Premier League and the focus has to be in avoiding the drop.
Of course they won't want to throw away the FA Cup Semi Final, but Mark Hughes has suggested he will freshen things up and I think he may consider resting key players for the final four League games.
Antonio Conte's focus is much easier to understand as he bids to help Chelsea win their remaining fixtures regardless of how that will affect his future as manager of the club. Winning out will give Chelsea an outside chance of a top four finish, but Conte will get the chance to sign off with a trophy and that has to be at the forefront of his mind.
Recent Chelsea performances will encourage Conte with impressive wins over Southampton and Burnley particularly the way Chelsea have rallied under pressure. The win over Southampton gives Chelsea a real mental advantage in this Semi Final and they will feel they can expose what has been a shaky defensive unit to say the least.
Chelsea look more secure with their formation and the team that is likely going to be picked and I would be surprised if they can't make it three wins in a week. The likes of Eden Hazard and Willian are well rested and should be ready to make an impact in this Semi Final and I am going to back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day as they punish Southampton for chasing a way back into this one late in the day.
MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label FA Cup Semi Final. Show all posts
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Saturday, 21 April 2018
Friday, 17 April 2015
Weekend Football Picks 2015 (April 18-19)
The big Premier League game this weekend comes from Stamford Bridge as Manchester United visit Chelsea, but there are also two FA Cup Semi Finals to be played over the weekend.
We should also begin to get more of a picture as to how the bottom of the Premier League will shape up in the next six weeks, while Manchester City have to win this weekend to prevent the nerves really kicking in as they hope to at least finish in the Champions League in an otherwise disappointing season.
Crystal Palace v West Brom Pick: One of the obvious story lines from this game is the return of Tony Pulis who saved Crystal Palace from the drop last season before walking out days before the start of the new season. However, don't expect Pulis to be interested in those dynamics as he bids to prevent his West Brom team's slide to the bottom three after it looked like survival had almost certainly been earned.
You do have to wonder if the players began to believe that too and have switched off somewhat in the last few weeks. West Brom have lost to the likes of Aston Villa, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City in that time, all teams below them in the table, and they have conceded seven goals in the last two games.
That won't bode well against a confident Crystal Palace team that have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and are riding a 4 game winning run. While the Palace team have been conceding goals, they have scored at least twice in each of those 4 games and have the pace and power in the forward areas to give West Brom a lot of problems to deal with.
In saying that, Tony Pulis should know exactly what to expect from the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie and he should have West Brom well drilled to deal with the threat from out wide. That is where the chess game will begin between Pulis and Alan Pardew and could be the key to the whole match.
Confidence is definitely flowing in the home team though and they love playing in front of a loud home support. If Crystal Palace can get on the front foot early on and get a goal, this game could really open up and goals have been a feature of games between these teams. At a big price, backing at least three goals to be scored looks the right call.
Everton v Burnley Pick: The fear for Burnley was that they were going to have two months of really difficult fixtures and might have lost touch with the sides above them. However, football results are now in the books and Burnley have done enough in that period to give themselves a great chance of surviving in the Premier League which would be a remarkable achievement for the club.
This is arguably the hardest game they have left to play with fixtures against rivals around them and teams with nothing to play for to come, but getting something from Everton will be incredibly difficult.
Burnley have not played as well away from Turf Moor and have lost 5 of their last 6 on their travels which has to be a concern for Sean Dyche. They are also running into Everton at the wrong time of the season as the home team have picked up their form and have won 4 in a row at Goodison Park in all competitions.
The return of Romelu Lukaku will give Everton more attacking options and they do have the look of a team that is hoping to end the season in the right way. A top half finish would be respectable considering where Everton were two months ago and I think they are a squad that is on the up.
The home team have looked a little more secure defensively in recent games and they do have goals in the side so I think they are a decent enough price to back to win.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: I don't know what Louis Van Gaal has done to finally get his Manchester United team to click in the manner they have in recent weeks, but he has definitely got the side playing in a way that will excite the fans for the future. There is a real return of the confidence and swagger that made Manchester United so successful under Sir Alex Ferguson and the freshness of not being in Europe this season has also played a part.
Some may disagree with that, but I think you would be foolish to dismiss the importance of having limited games under your belt at this stage of the season. While Manchester United have flourished, Chelsea have looked a little fatigued as a long season takes its toll on a small squad.
They have been forced to huff and puff in recent games and been fortunate to win against Hull City and Queens Park Rangers, while the home form has also dipped alarmingly as they have won just 2 of their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard is top quality, but some of the other players in the Chelsea squad, especially further up the field, have looked short of ideas at times and I do wonder if they would last in the title race if there was a team a lot closer to them.
Goals have dried up to some extent for Chelsea and Jose Mourinho will look to stifle the Manchester United attack and protect a defence that hasn't been as tight as you would expect. The return of Nemanja Matic gives them some more protection, but Manchester United will give this back line a real test on Saturday.
After the performance last weekend, I was convinced that Manchester United can come to Stamford Bridge and win this game. However, dismissing Chelsea is foolish especially as they are unbeaten in the Premier League here. There are still some holes in the Manchester United defence that Chelsea can take advantage of as Manchester City and Liverpool have shown in recent games.
That is a concern for me and I think both teams will have their chances to score in this game. If Didier Drogba is leading the line for Chelsea, I think Manchester United really can win this game and I don't mean that from the heart, but from the head.
The freshness that Manchester United have shown and Louis Van Gaal's preparation for these big games will both play a big part in the game. Loic Remy will pose more problems with his pace and power, but confidence seems to be higher in the Manchester United squad compared to some of the tiredness that Chelsea have displayed in their performances.
Manchester United's record at Stamford Bridge is not the best in recent seasons which is putting me off a little, but they do look a very, very big price to win here. It is hard to imagine a situation where Chelsea don't score so it might be worth a small interest this weekend on Manchester United winning a game in which both teams score at a massive 7-1.
However, the latest news about the injuries in the Manchester United squad do temper the enthusiasm and instead it might be best picking there being at least three goals shared by the teams on Saturday.
Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: The manner of the defeat at Old Trafford last weekend must have raised some eyebrows in the Middle East as Manchester City fell below rivals Manchester United by four points. Manuel Pellegrini insists it is not about him at the moment, but that hasn't stopped the rumours regarding his future as manager of the club, especially not after Jurgen Klopp announced his departure from Borussia Dortmund.
Carlo Ancelotti is another big name that could be available this summer and finishing outside of the Champions League places will spell the end for Pellegrini. Even a 4th place finish the year after stealing the title from under the noses of Liverpool may not be enough, but Pellegrini will be focusing on getting back to winning ways this weekend.
As bad as some of the recent results have been for Manchester City, those have come away from the Etihad Stadium and they have won 3 in a row at home in the Premier League. All of those wins have come fairly comfortably and they are facing a West Ham United team that might be without their forward threats.
There has also been a loss of form for West Ham United in the last three months as they have been hit by injuries as well as the future of Sam Allardyce being up in the air. That uncertainty and the season soon coming to a close means West Ham United have been there for the taking in a few of their games and they might have a hard time this weekend against a Manchester City team looking to right recent wrongs.
Goals at home haven't been a problem and Manchester City have won 6 straight games at the Etihad Stadium against West Ham United. If City get in front early, I can see West Ham dropping their heads and that might see the home team win yet another game here with some comfort and I will back them to win by a couple of goals at least.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Neither Newcastle United nor Tottenham Hotspur are in the form to inspire their fans and there really isn't much of a case to be made for either team winning this game. John Carver might continue to tell anyone who listens that he is 'Newcastle through and through', but the players haven't responded to him at all and are playing like they know a new face will be sitting in the manager's office in the summer.
They were sleep-walking for much of the game at Liverpool on Monday night and were fortunate to lose 2-0 when better finishing would have increased that margin considerably. A lack of effort has to be a real concern for Carver, especially coming off the Tyne-Wear derby defeat to Sunderland, while both Manchester United and Arsenal have come to St James' Park and left with the three points.
On the other hand, Tottenham Hotspur look tired and out of ideas in recent games as they failed to score in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and were beaten by Aston Villa last weekend. The Champions League places now look beyond them and Spurs were lacklustre in a recent goalless drab game at Turf Moor.
It has been more of the same for Tottenham Hotspur on their travels where they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 in all competitions and you can't make much of a case for them here.
For as bad as Newcastle United have been, they have at least been somewhat competitive at St James' Park and I expect they will make life difficult for Tottenham Hotspur. I am not sure many of the neutrals will be tuning in early in this one as it clashes with the second FA Cup Semi Final of the weekend, and they might not miss much as far as I am concerned.
No form and struggling for goals doesn't inspire me for either side and it might be a game that fails to ignite for much of it. The draw doesn't really do much for either team, but they are closely matched and it will likely take something special to separate them, if they are indeed separated.
Reading v Arsenal Pick: This should be a really good day out for the Reading fans, but Steve Clarke won't be going to Wembley Stadium with a white flag coming out of the team bus. He will understand there is a big difference in terms of quality that both squads have, but Clarke will look to challenge Arsenal through hard work and getting amongst them as a team and trying to unsettle their Premier League opponents.
That won't be easy for a Reading team that played on Tuesday without the expected rotation that some suggested in their game against Bournemouth. The problem will be trying to restore energy levels to get around the large Wembley playing area and failing to get close to Arsenal will only result in one result.
Reading can take heart from the way Wigan Athletic played against Arsenal in the FA Cup Semi Final when they managed to take the Gunners to a penalty shoot out, although ultimately losing, twelve months ago. Getting in front will give Reading something to hold onto, but this is a team that has struggled in front of goal in recent weeks and now have to raise their level.
The form also points to Arsenal being too good on Saturday and it is hard to ignore the fact that they have regularly scored at least twice in their recent wins. Getting to that total again will give Arsenal every chance of winning this Semi Final comfortably and an early goal could see them exploit plenty of spaces on the counter attack.
As long as complacency doesn't set in, as it did at times in the win over Burnley when there were some lapses in concentration, I would expect Arsenal to come through far more comfortably than twelve months ago. It just looks like Arsenal have too much pace and power for Reading and I expect them to win by at least a couple of goals.
Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: One of the hardest factors to guess in any sport is how nerves will affect the competitors and that is a big question for the Aston Villa and Liverpool players who know the importance of this Semi Final.
Both have other goals to achieve in the Premier League, but they won't be focusing on those and I think both managers will be looking to get their team forward and win this one by scoring plenty of goals.
Liverpool and Aston Villa have both looked nervy at the back in recent weeks which could play into the tactics that both Brendan Rodgers and Tim Sherwood look to bring to the table. There is pace in both forward lines which will worry the defenders and I think chances will be created at both ends of the field.
Christian Benteke is the form striker who can be called upon and he will fancy his chances of increasing his recent tally of goals, while Raheem Sterling could lead the line for Liverpool. Sterling did score a goal against Newcastle United, but he missed two sitters and can't always be trusted in one on one situations so Liverpool's success could come down to how he is feeling on the day.
There should be goals in the second FA Cup Semi Final of the weekend, but I also believe Liverpool are the better team and should prove to be too strong. Gaps could open up for their counter-attack if Aston Villa go chasing the game at some point, and I like Liverpool to win a game that features at least three goals.
MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Draw @ 3.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
April Update: 9-12-1, - 4.85 Units (41 Units Staked, - 11.83% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
We should also begin to get more of a picture as to how the bottom of the Premier League will shape up in the next six weeks, while Manchester City have to win this weekend to prevent the nerves really kicking in as they hope to at least finish in the Champions League in an otherwise disappointing season.
Crystal Palace v West Brom Pick: One of the obvious story lines from this game is the return of Tony Pulis who saved Crystal Palace from the drop last season before walking out days before the start of the new season. However, don't expect Pulis to be interested in those dynamics as he bids to prevent his West Brom team's slide to the bottom three after it looked like survival had almost certainly been earned.
You do have to wonder if the players began to believe that too and have switched off somewhat in the last few weeks. West Brom have lost to the likes of Aston Villa, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City in that time, all teams below them in the table, and they have conceded seven goals in the last two games.
That won't bode well against a confident Crystal Palace team that have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and are riding a 4 game winning run. While the Palace team have been conceding goals, they have scored at least twice in each of those 4 games and have the pace and power in the forward areas to give West Brom a lot of problems to deal with.
In saying that, Tony Pulis should know exactly what to expect from the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie and he should have West Brom well drilled to deal with the threat from out wide. That is where the chess game will begin between Pulis and Alan Pardew and could be the key to the whole match.
Confidence is definitely flowing in the home team though and they love playing in front of a loud home support. If Crystal Palace can get on the front foot early on and get a goal, this game could really open up and goals have been a feature of games between these teams. At a big price, backing at least three goals to be scored looks the right call.
Everton v Burnley Pick: The fear for Burnley was that they were going to have two months of really difficult fixtures and might have lost touch with the sides above them. However, football results are now in the books and Burnley have done enough in that period to give themselves a great chance of surviving in the Premier League which would be a remarkable achievement for the club.
This is arguably the hardest game they have left to play with fixtures against rivals around them and teams with nothing to play for to come, but getting something from Everton will be incredibly difficult.
Burnley have not played as well away from Turf Moor and have lost 5 of their last 6 on their travels which has to be a concern for Sean Dyche. They are also running into Everton at the wrong time of the season as the home team have picked up their form and have won 4 in a row at Goodison Park in all competitions.
The return of Romelu Lukaku will give Everton more attacking options and they do have the look of a team that is hoping to end the season in the right way. A top half finish would be respectable considering where Everton were two months ago and I think they are a squad that is on the up.
The home team have looked a little more secure defensively in recent games and they do have goals in the side so I think they are a decent enough price to back to win.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: I don't know what Louis Van Gaal has done to finally get his Manchester United team to click in the manner they have in recent weeks, but he has definitely got the side playing in a way that will excite the fans for the future. There is a real return of the confidence and swagger that made Manchester United so successful under Sir Alex Ferguson and the freshness of not being in Europe this season has also played a part.
Some may disagree with that, but I think you would be foolish to dismiss the importance of having limited games under your belt at this stage of the season. While Manchester United have flourished, Chelsea have looked a little fatigued as a long season takes its toll on a small squad.
They have been forced to huff and puff in recent games and been fortunate to win against Hull City and Queens Park Rangers, while the home form has also dipped alarmingly as they have won just 2 of their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard is top quality, but some of the other players in the Chelsea squad, especially further up the field, have looked short of ideas at times and I do wonder if they would last in the title race if there was a team a lot closer to them.
Goals have dried up to some extent for Chelsea and Jose Mourinho will look to stifle the Manchester United attack and protect a defence that hasn't been as tight as you would expect. The return of Nemanja Matic gives them some more protection, but Manchester United will give this back line a real test on Saturday.
After the performance last weekend, I was convinced that Manchester United can come to Stamford Bridge and win this game. However, dismissing Chelsea is foolish especially as they are unbeaten in the Premier League here. There are still some holes in the Manchester United defence that Chelsea can take advantage of as Manchester City and Liverpool have shown in recent games.
That is a concern for me and I think both teams will have their chances to score in this game. If Didier Drogba is leading the line for Chelsea, I think Manchester United really can win this game and I don't mean that from the heart, but from the head.
The freshness that Manchester United have shown and Louis Van Gaal's preparation for these big games will both play a big part in the game. Loic Remy will pose more problems with his pace and power, but confidence seems to be higher in the Manchester United squad compared to some of the tiredness that Chelsea have displayed in their performances.
Manchester United's record at Stamford Bridge is not the best in recent seasons which is putting me off a little, but they do look a very, very big price to win here. It is hard to imagine a situation where Chelsea don't score so it might be worth a small interest this weekend on Manchester United winning a game in which both teams score at a massive 7-1.
However, the latest news about the injuries in the Manchester United squad do temper the enthusiasm and instead it might be best picking there being at least three goals shared by the teams on Saturday.
Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: The manner of the defeat at Old Trafford last weekend must have raised some eyebrows in the Middle East as Manchester City fell below rivals Manchester United by four points. Manuel Pellegrini insists it is not about him at the moment, but that hasn't stopped the rumours regarding his future as manager of the club, especially not after Jurgen Klopp announced his departure from Borussia Dortmund.
Carlo Ancelotti is another big name that could be available this summer and finishing outside of the Champions League places will spell the end for Pellegrini. Even a 4th place finish the year after stealing the title from under the noses of Liverpool may not be enough, but Pellegrini will be focusing on getting back to winning ways this weekend.
As bad as some of the recent results have been for Manchester City, those have come away from the Etihad Stadium and they have won 3 in a row at home in the Premier League. All of those wins have come fairly comfortably and they are facing a West Ham United team that might be without their forward threats.
There has also been a loss of form for West Ham United in the last three months as they have been hit by injuries as well as the future of Sam Allardyce being up in the air. That uncertainty and the season soon coming to a close means West Ham United have been there for the taking in a few of their games and they might have a hard time this weekend against a Manchester City team looking to right recent wrongs.
Goals at home haven't been a problem and Manchester City have won 6 straight games at the Etihad Stadium against West Ham United. If City get in front early, I can see West Ham dropping their heads and that might see the home team win yet another game here with some comfort and I will back them to win by a couple of goals at least.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Neither Newcastle United nor Tottenham Hotspur are in the form to inspire their fans and there really isn't much of a case to be made for either team winning this game. John Carver might continue to tell anyone who listens that he is 'Newcastle through and through', but the players haven't responded to him at all and are playing like they know a new face will be sitting in the manager's office in the summer.
They were sleep-walking for much of the game at Liverpool on Monday night and were fortunate to lose 2-0 when better finishing would have increased that margin considerably. A lack of effort has to be a real concern for Carver, especially coming off the Tyne-Wear derby defeat to Sunderland, while both Manchester United and Arsenal have come to St James' Park and left with the three points.
On the other hand, Tottenham Hotspur look tired and out of ideas in recent games as they failed to score in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and were beaten by Aston Villa last weekend. The Champions League places now look beyond them and Spurs were lacklustre in a recent goalless drab game at Turf Moor.
It has been more of the same for Tottenham Hotspur on their travels where they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 in all competitions and you can't make much of a case for them here.
For as bad as Newcastle United have been, they have at least been somewhat competitive at St James' Park and I expect they will make life difficult for Tottenham Hotspur. I am not sure many of the neutrals will be tuning in early in this one as it clashes with the second FA Cup Semi Final of the weekend, and they might not miss much as far as I am concerned.
No form and struggling for goals doesn't inspire me for either side and it might be a game that fails to ignite for much of it. The draw doesn't really do much for either team, but they are closely matched and it will likely take something special to separate them, if they are indeed separated.
Reading v Arsenal Pick: This should be a really good day out for the Reading fans, but Steve Clarke won't be going to Wembley Stadium with a white flag coming out of the team bus. He will understand there is a big difference in terms of quality that both squads have, but Clarke will look to challenge Arsenal through hard work and getting amongst them as a team and trying to unsettle their Premier League opponents.
That won't be easy for a Reading team that played on Tuesday without the expected rotation that some suggested in their game against Bournemouth. The problem will be trying to restore energy levels to get around the large Wembley playing area and failing to get close to Arsenal will only result in one result.
Reading can take heart from the way Wigan Athletic played against Arsenal in the FA Cup Semi Final when they managed to take the Gunners to a penalty shoot out, although ultimately losing, twelve months ago. Getting in front will give Reading something to hold onto, but this is a team that has struggled in front of goal in recent weeks and now have to raise their level.
The form also points to Arsenal being too good on Saturday and it is hard to ignore the fact that they have regularly scored at least twice in their recent wins. Getting to that total again will give Arsenal every chance of winning this Semi Final comfortably and an early goal could see them exploit plenty of spaces on the counter attack.
As long as complacency doesn't set in, as it did at times in the win over Burnley when there were some lapses in concentration, I would expect Arsenal to come through far more comfortably than twelve months ago. It just looks like Arsenal have too much pace and power for Reading and I expect them to win by at least a couple of goals.
Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: One of the hardest factors to guess in any sport is how nerves will affect the competitors and that is a big question for the Aston Villa and Liverpool players who know the importance of this Semi Final.
Both have other goals to achieve in the Premier League, but they won't be focusing on those and I think both managers will be looking to get their team forward and win this one by scoring plenty of goals.
Liverpool and Aston Villa have both looked nervy at the back in recent weeks which could play into the tactics that both Brendan Rodgers and Tim Sherwood look to bring to the table. There is pace in both forward lines which will worry the defenders and I think chances will be created at both ends of the field.
Christian Benteke is the form striker who can be called upon and he will fancy his chances of increasing his recent tally of goals, while Raheem Sterling could lead the line for Liverpool. Sterling did score a goal against Newcastle United, but he missed two sitters and can't always be trusted in one on one situations so Liverpool's success could come down to how he is feeling on the day.
There should be goals in the second FA Cup Semi Final of the weekend, but I also believe Liverpool are the better team and should prove to be too strong. Gaps could open up for their counter-attack if Aston Villa go chasing the game at some point, and I like Liverpool to win a game that features at least three goals.
MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Draw @ 3.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
April Update: 9-12-1, - 4.85 Units (41 Units Staked, - 11.83% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 12 April 2014
Weekend Football Picks 2014 (April 12-13)
It's been a long trip away from home, but it is good to be back even if the time change hasn't quite seen me catch up just yet.
With that in mind, from next week these posts will be back in their normal fashion, but here are the picks from this weekend.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick Below
Stoke City v Newcastle United Pick: The form guide points to only one winner in this game and the motivation will certainly also be on the side of Stoke City in this one as they look to make sure they finish in the top half of the Premier League table.
Stoke City have been playing good football in recent weeks and they have been winning plenty of games in front of their own fans including against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United.
That is in sharp contrast to Newcastle United who have lost a couple of away games at Fulham and Southampton which makes it tough to really believe they can avoid defeat at the Brittania Stadium. The lack of goals in the Newcastle team has been a real problem, especially in the continued absence of Loic Remy and that is all pointing to a home win in this game.
Of course, the Premier League is always likely to throw up strange results on a weekly basis, but Stoke City seem to be holding all the aces in this game and I think they look worth backing to overcome Newcastle and earn another three points at home.
Sunderland v Everton Pick: Some recent performances from Sunderland suggest this is a group of players that are beginning to feel the drop is very much in their future, but they can reinvigorate some optimism by winning this game. It is imperative that Sunderland find the three points in this game if they are to have a real chance of avoiding relegation, but Everton have a lot of momentum behind them and are going to be very confident.
The 3-0 win over Arsenal has given Everton a real chance of finishing in the Champions League places this season, but they can't afford to take their eye off the prize and fail to win this game.
However, the away form has been up and down all season for Everton as they haven't found it as easy scoring the goals needed to win games on their travels. 20 goals in 16 away games highlights that problem and shows why they have only won 6 away games to this point, but back to back impressive wins at Newcastle United and Fulham may have seen the side turn a corner.
There should be goals in an Everton team that has the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Leon Osman and Kevin Miralles able to put away chances that come their way and I expect they can do enough to earn the three points here.
Even with that in mind, backing Everton at odds on away from home makes little sense for me considering their season form on their travels. Instead, I think Everton will need to score more than once to win the game and I am going to back them to score either 2 or 3 goals here.
Sunderland have conceded that amount to Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton this season, while Chelsea managed to score a late fourth in their win at the Stadium of Light. Add the fact that Hull City and West Ham United have scored twice in their recent visits to Sunderland and I think backing Everton to score either 2 or 3 goals is the call.
West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a game that has ramifications at both ends of the table and that should produce a fascinating game of football for the fans in attendance on Saturday afternoon. West Brom will feel the win at Norwich City last weekend has given them one foot in the Premier League for next season, but they need to use that momentum to at least push away with another win this weekend.
With Fulham facing Norwich City on the same day, West Brom could find themselves dragged back into the relegation mix if they lose this game and Fulham win and that keeps the motivation high for the home team.
West Brom have certainly struggled at home this season, especially when it comes to wins, but they have also been tough to beat as Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Chelsea will all tell you. Taking into account Tottenham Hotspur's recent struggles away from home, West Brom will feel they can earn another three points that will put them a long way from relegation.
Before the recent away results, Tottenham Hotspur had been very solid away from home and I think they can cause problems for a West Brom team that haven't kept too many clean sheets at home. They have also conceded three goals in back to back games at the Hawthornes and Spurs are coming in having scored five against Sunderland.
I would be surprised if this isn't a game that produces goals, although the 1-1 scoreline is the one that bothers me the most with it being a popular one for West Brom against the better teams in the Premier League. Still, I would expect both teams to go for the three points that are so important at this stage of the season and will back the game to see at least three goals.
Wigan Athletic v Arsenal Pick: There is no doubt that Arsenal are really having a hard time in recent weeks as they barely hold onto their top four place in the Premier League, but this FA Cup game should be to their liking against a team in the lower Leagues.
That is not disrespecting Wigan Athletic, but a long season may be beginning to take its toll on their players and their form coming into the game is not as strong as when they surprised Manchester City. Of course the FA Cup Semi Final will re-energise some of the players taking to the field, but promotion is the bigger importance to Wigan who would probably take an appearance in the Play Off Final at Wembley over an FA Cup one at this point.
No team rolls over in the FA Cup Semi Final though and I fully expect Wigan to really give this a go and perhaps trouble Arsenal more than some may initially expect.
The problem is that Arsenal should have more quality and the bigger pitch should help them stretch the play to the point of being able to win this game. If Wigan are forced to chase the game, Arsenal should also be able to hurt them on the break and I will back them to win this game by a couple of goals.
That should ease some of the pressure on Arsene Wenger that has been building up in recent games, although it could quickly return if the side fall out of the top four in the coming weeks.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: A lot of the experts are suggesting that the winner of this live game on Sunday will be the new Premier League champions come May and it is hard to argue with that logic with the way both teams have been playing.
Liverpool have won 9 in a row in the Premier League and have all the momentum behind them with the visit of Manchester City and Chelsea- a win in both games will surely see them end their 24 year wait for the title, but writing off Manchester City to upset the apple-cart is a big mistake.
Much like Liverpool, Manchester City are set up to attack and score goals and I can see them causing plenty of problems for their hosts, although will also be vulnerable to the pace that Liverpool have in the forward positions.
With all the attacking talent on display, this should be a game for the neutrals as both sides will look to get forward and win the game. Of course, there is the potential for the tension to get to both teams and force them to play it a little more cautious than they would naturally be inclined to do, especially with all that is at stake.
I believe that both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rodgers will be urging their side to get forward and I think there is the potential for at least four goals to be shared between the sides, something that has happened a fair bit between them in recent matches. Last season saw both games end 2-2, while it has been a more common scoreline when the teams have met at Anfield.
In fact, 3 of the last 5 games between the sides at Anfield have ended 2-2, including the last two times they have played here. At 2.40 being offered, the layers are taking no chances with the expectation of goals, but I still think that is a price worth backing this weekend.
Swansea v Chelsea Pick: There are only five games left for Chelsea to play in the Premier League and they know their chances of winning the title will be reduced hugely if they fail to win in Swansea as they have done in their 3 previous visits to the Liberty Stadium.
All of those games have ended in draws, but Chelsea should be on a high after booking their place in the Champions League Semi Final and they have had enough time to prepare for this game.
Chelsea have been struggling away from home including back to back losses in the Premier League, but Swansea have also been having a tough time and remain in the relegation mix. It would become even more precarious for Swansea if Fulham beat Norwich City on Saturday, but they will probably have enough to steer clear of the bottom three.
At home, Swansea should be able to cause problems, but they have struggled against the top teams in the League and I believe Chelsea will find the victory. Eden Hazard's absence would be a big loss, but Swansea might not have enough to take advantage on current form and I think the away side are worth backing, even with the odds on quotes.
Hull City v Sheffield United Pick: Since Nigel Clough arrived at Sheffield United, there has been a huge upturn in form for the Blades and they can't be under-estimated by Premier League Hull City simply because they have beaten two Premier League teams already in the competition this season.
I expect they will make it very difficult for Hull City, but I am also surprised that the team that is two Divisions higher are a bigger price than, for example, Southampton beating Cardiff City this weekend.
Yes, this game is being played on a neutral ground that should even up the game, but the playing surface at Wembley Stadium should also suit Hull and I expect the width of the pitch should also make it more difficult for Sheffield United to dig in as they are expected to do.
If Hull can forget the expectation that will be on their shoulders, they should pose enough quality to wear down an opponent that has overachieved in the FA Cup this season. Patience might be the order of the day, but the price looks too hard to ignore on a Hull City win and a place in the Final next month.
MY PICKS: Fulham @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Stoke City @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Everton Goal Bands- 2/3 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.38 Stan James (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Hull City @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
With that in mind, from next week these posts will be back in their normal fashion, but here are the picks from this weekend.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick Below
Stoke City v Newcastle United Pick: The form guide points to only one winner in this game and the motivation will certainly also be on the side of Stoke City in this one as they look to make sure they finish in the top half of the Premier League table.
Stoke City have been playing good football in recent weeks and they have been winning plenty of games in front of their own fans including against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United.
That is in sharp contrast to Newcastle United who have lost a couple of away games at Fulham and Southampton which makes it tough to really believe they can avoid defeat at the Brittania Stadium. The lack of goals in the Newcastle team has been a real problem, especially in the continued absence of Loic Remy and that is all pointing to a home win in this game.
Of course, the Premier League is always likely to throw up strange results on a weekly basis, but Stoke City seem to be holding all the aces in this game and I think they look worth backing to overcome Newcastle and earn another three points at home.
Sunderland v Everton Pick: Some recent performances from Sunderland suggest this is a group of players that are beginning to feel the drop is very much in their future, but they can reinvigorate some optimism by winning this game. It is imperative that Sunderland find the three points in this game if they are to have a real chance of avoiding relegation, but Everton have a lot of momentum behind them and are going to be very confident.
The 3-0 win over Arsenal has given Everton a real chance of finishing in the Champions League places this season, but they can't afford to take their eye off the prize and fail to win this game.
However, the away form has been up and down all season for Everton as they haven't found it as easy scoring the goals needed to win games on their travels. 20 goals in 16 away games highlights that problem and shows why they have only won 6 away games to this point, but back to back impressive wins at Newcastle United and Fulham may have seen the side turn a corner.
There should be goals in an Everton team that has the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Leon Osman and Kevin Miralles able to put away chances that come their way and I expect they can do enough to earn the three points here.
Even with that in mind, backing Everton at odds on away from home makes little sense for me considering their season form on their travels. Instead, I think Everton will need to score more than once to win the game and I am going to back them to score either 2 or 3 goals here.
Sunderland have conceded that amount to Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton this season, while Chelsea managed to score a late fourth in their win at the Stadium of Light. Add the fact that Hull City and West Ham United have scored twice in their recent visits to Sunderland and I think backing Everton to score either 2 or 3 goals is the call.
West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a game that has ramifications at both ends of the table and that should produce a fascinating game of football for the fans in attendance on Saturday afternoon. West Brom will feel the win at Norwich City last weekend has given them one foot in the Premier League for next season, but they need to use that momentum to at least push away with another win this weekend.
With Fulham facing Norwich City on the same day, West Brom could find themselves dragged back into the relegation mix if they lose this game and Fulham win and that keeps the motivation high for the home team.
West Brom have certainly struggled at home this season, especially when it comes to wins, but they have also been tough to beat as Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Chelsea will all tell you. Taking into account Tottenham Hotspur's recent struggles away from home, West Brom will feel they can earn another three points that will put them a long way from relegation.
Before the recent away results, Tottenham Hotspur had been very solid away from home and I think they can cause problems for a West Brom team that haven't kept too many clean sheets at home. They have also conceded three goals in back to back games at the Hawthornes and Spurs are coming in having scored five against Sunderland.
I would be surprised if this isn't a game that produces goals, although the 1-1 scoreline is the one that bothers me the most with it being a popular one for West Brom against the better teams in the Premier League. Still, I would expect both teams to go for the three points that are so important at this stage of the season and will back the game to see at least three goals.
Wigan Athletic v Arsenal Pick: There is no doubt that Arsenal are really having a hard time in recent weeks as they barely hold onto their top four place in the Premier League, but this FA Cup game should be to their liking against a team in the lower Leagues.
That is not disrespecting Wigan Athletic, but a long season may be beginning to take its toll on their players and their form coming into the game is not as strong as when they surprised Manchester City. Of course the FA Cup Semi Final will re-energise some of the players taking to the field, but promotion is the bigger importance to Wigan who would probably take an appearance in the Play Off Final at Wembley over an FA Cup one at this point.
No team rolls over in the FA Cup Semi Final though and I fully expect Wigan to really give this a go and perhaps trouble Arsenal more than some may initially expect.
The problem is that Arsenal should have more quality and the bigger pitch should help them stretch the play to the point of being able to win this game. If Wigan are forced to chase the game, Arsenal should also be able to hurt them on the break and I will back them to win this game by a couple of goals.
That should ease some of the pressure on Arsene Wenger that has been building up in recent games, although it could quickly return if the side fall out of the top four in the coming weeks.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: A lot of the experts are suggesting that the winner of this live game on Sunday will be the new Premier League champions come May and it is hard to argue with that logic with the way both teams have been playing.
Liverpool have won 9 in a row in the Premier League and have all the momentum behind them with the visit of Manchester City and Chelsea- a win in both games will surely see them end their 24 year wait for the title, but writing off Manchester City to upset the apple-cart is a big mistake.
Much like Liverpool, Manchester City are set up to attack and score goals and I can see them causing plenty of problems for their hosts, although will also be vulnerable to the pace that Liverpool have in the forward positions.
With all the attacking talent on display, this should be a game for the neutrals as both sides will look to get forward and win the game. Of course, there is the potential for the tension to get to both teams and force them to play it a little more cautious than they would naturally be inclined to do, especially with all that is at stake.
I believe that both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rodgers will be urging their side to get forward and I think there is the potential for at least four goals to be shared between the sides, something that has happened a fair bit between them in recent matches. Last season saw both games end 2-2, while it has been a more common scoreline when the teams have met at Anfield.
In fact, 3 of the last 5 games between the sides at Anfield have ended 2-2, including the last two times they have played here. At 2.40 being offered, the layers are taking no chances with the expectation of goals, but I still think that is a price worth backing this weekend.
Swansea v Chelsea Pick: There are only five games left for Chelsea to play in the Premier League and they know their chances of winning the title will be reduced hugely if they fail to win in Swansea as they have done in their 3 previous visits to the Liberty Stadium.
All of those games have ended in draws, but Chelsea should be on a high after booking their place in the Champions League Semi Final and they have had enough time to prepare for this game.
Chelsea have been struggling away from home including back to back losses in the Premier League, but Swansea have also been having a tough time and remain in the relegation mix. It would become even more precarious for Swansea if Fulham beat Norwich City on Saturday, but they will probably have enough to steer clear of the bottom three.
At home, Swansea should be able to cause problems, but they have struggled against the top teams in the League and I believe Chelsea will find the victory. Eden Hazard's absence would be a big loss, but Swansea might not have enough to take advantage on current form and I think the away side are worth backing, even with the odds on quotes.
Hull City v Sheffield United Pick: Since Nigel Clough arrived at Sheffield United, there has been a huge upturn in form for the Blades and they can't be under-estimated by Premier League Hull City simply because they have beaten two Premier League teams already in the competition this season.
I expect they will make it very difficult for Hull City, but I am also surprised that the team that is two Divisions higher are a bigger price than, for example, Southampton beating Cardiff City this weekend.
Yes, this game is being played on a neutral ground that should even up the game, but the playing surface at Wembley Stadium should also suit Hull and I expect the width of the pitch should also make it more difficult for Sheffield United to dig in as they are expected to do.
If Hull can forget the expectation that will be on their shoulders, they should pose enough quality to wear down an opponent that has overachieved in the FA Cup this season. Patience might be the order of the day, but the price looks too hard to ignore on a Hull City win and a place in the Final next month.
MY PICKS: Fulham @ 2.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Stoke City @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Everton Goal Bands- 2/3 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.38 Stan James (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Hull City @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Friday, 13 April 2012
English Football Weekend Picks (April 13-16)
My picks for the weekend will come out on this thread in a staggered period over the next 48 hours. Remember that the weekend fixtures start on Friday night as Southampton take on Reading in the Championship, and we will see Premier League, FA Cup as well as other Championship fixtures over the following four days.
As always, you can check in with my Twitter account that will be updated whenever any new picks are made.
Southampton v Reading Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13775-Southampton-v-Reading.htm)
West Brom v QPR Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13777-West-Brom-v-QPR.htm)
Norwich City v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13792-Norwich-City-v-Manchester-City.htm)
Swansea v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13794-Swansea-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Sunderland v Wolves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13797-Sunderland-v-Wolves.htm)
Nottingham Forest v Blackpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13798-Nottingham-Forest-v-Blackpool.htm)
Millwall v Leicester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13799-Millwall-v-Leicester-City.htm)
MY PICKS: Southampton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.25 Coral (1 Unit)
West Brom-QPR Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Panbet (2 Units)
Manchester City to come from behind and win or draw @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Blackburn Rovers Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 3.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Sunderland to come from behind and win or draw @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Blackpool @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Leicester City Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.38 Coral (1 Unit)
As always, you can check in with my Twitter account that will be updated whenever any new picks are made.
Southampton v Reading Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13775-Southampton-v-Reading.htm)
West Brom v QPR Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13777-West-Brom-v-QPR.htm)
Norwich City v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13792-Norwich-City-v-Manchester-City.htm)
Swansea v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13794-Swansea-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Sunderland v Wolves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13797-Sunderland-v-Wolves.htm)
Nottingham Forest v Blackpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13798-Nottingham-Forest-v-Blackpool.htm)
Millwall v Leicester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13799-Millwall-v-Leicester-City.htm)
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Blackburn Rovers Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 3.20 Coral (1 Unit)
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Blackpool @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Leicester City Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.38 Coral (1 Unit)
Wednesday, 28 March 2012
A few thoughts from the last week in Football (March 17-28)
I have been extremely busy at work during the last month and that has meant I have not been able to do many recaps due to time constraints and making sure all the picks were out in time.
It has been a busy time in the world of football as we get to 'squeaky bum time' meaning games are coming thick and fast, but I have found a slight window to put down a few thoughts on some of the issues that have arisen in the last couple of weeks.
The reaction to the Fabrice Muamba incident: This is something that united the football world as everyone hoped the best for the young midfielder, but more recently it has become a source of contention- not what happened to the player, but the reaction of people throughout the country.
The first thing we have to point out is the advances of social networking in the last ten years which has allowed people to put to their everyday thoughts down instantly. Therefore, any news can quickly expand and we can also see uprisings down to planned meetings on such sites, for example what happened in Egypt.
My position on Muamba is that when I initially heard what had happened, I was shocked... Not because of his age, but because it is a shock when a professional sports athlete would suddenly just collapse. It was the exact same reaction I had when I heard Daniel Jarque of Espanyol died after a training session in August 2009 and when Antonio Puerta of Sevilla died on the pitch in August 2007.
The issue I had was the number of one minute applauses held up and down the country at football matches in the days following Muamba's collapse... I could understand this a LOT more if he had passed away, but I found it a little distasteful considering he was still fighting for his life. The last time I checked, an applause was unlikely to be helpful and it just seemed really out of place because... well because Muamba was still alive.
I could understand his former clubs at Birmingham and Arsenal holding some sort of event to let Muamba's family know he wasn't forgotten as there were players that likely had played with him, and I could understand Spurs fans wanting to do something as they were sadly witnesses to the event, while Bolton was a given.
BUT I didn't understand the need to hold an applause at Chelsea v Leicester the day after Muamba collapsed, or at Blackburn v Sunderland on Tuesday evening.
It just seems to me that people want to show their grief at something like this as a barometer as to how decent a human being they are- if you didn't shed a tear or applaud or offer your thoughts at every moment in the following days while Muamba was fighting for his life and you were disregarded as being heartless and out of order.
The last couple of days we have seen people attack the Red Issue cover, which took a satirical dig at the people who have been OTT with their response to this whole issue- the ones that seem to revel in showing how upset they are over events they have no control of.
The people who seem to have the loudest voices offering their disgust at the cover also, unsurprisingly, seem to be the people that wanted to put their grief on their sleeves in the most prominent manner.
I just don't remember the reaction of these same people to Antonio Puerta when he actually DIED on the pitch as they have had for Fabrice Muamba who is, gladly, making a recovery from his unfortunate events.
The question I have left is in what situations will a one minute applause NOT be applicable from now on? A dangerous precedent has been set in my opinion, and one that has nothing to do with people's actual feelings on the matter, making much more reasonable requests for a minute's applause/silence just part of a national grieving day.
FA Cup Semi Final Dilemma: We are coming up to the 23rd anniversary since the Hillsborough Disaster and the FA have been left in a tough spot as to what they can do with the FA Cup Semi Finals that are due to take place that day.
Liverpool, understandably, have always requested not to play on April 15th and that is the date for the second Semi Final this season. The problem for the FA is that the other Semi Final involves Chelsea, a team that are likely to be playing a Champions League Semi Final on Tuesday following this weekend.
Now what to do? The first thing is they could talk to Liverpool and ask them their feelings of playing on April 15th considering they are meeting Everton, a local rival but one that was also affected by the events in 1989. It is no exaggeration to say families can be split down the middle in that City with their support for either Everton or Liverpool, so it could be the ultimate way to pay respects to those that lost their lives 23 years ago as the two famous clubs come together.
However, that is a question for Liverpool and they have every right to say they do not wish to play on that date regardless of the opposition.
Therefore, the FA have only two real options in my opinion for the Semi Finals. Both involves keeping the Sunday clear for Chelsea as well as they deserve to be given the best opportunity to win the Champions League and need the rest between this game and the Semi Final of the other competition.
The first is simply to move the Liverpool-Everton game to take place at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff... This stadium is closer to Liverpool than Wembley and this game could take place as the early game on Saturday 14th April, with Chelsea meeting Spurs at Wembley in the evening.
However, I think the FA are adamant in playing both Semi Finals at Wembley and the only reasonable idea seems to be Chelsea-Spurs meeting on Friday evening and leaving the Liverpool-Everton game on the Saturday. Some will argue that it is impossible for the police to ensure crowd safety for the Chelsea game if everyone has been on the drink during the day, but there have been night games between the teams in the past and the police have had night games at Wembley in the past.
It seems the most logical way to avoid any issues for Chelsea and Liverpool as both clubs will be keeping a close eye on this game. The London Semi Final makes sense to be played on a Friday night as most fans will be close enough to attend and it keeps the April 15th free for both Chelsea and Liverpool for their respective reasons.
Patrick Vieira is clearly still in touch with Garry Cook: That is the only logical reason I have for the comments coming out of the 'Manchester City legend' (he was there for 18 months at the end of his career) regarding Manchester United.
Last week he described the current League leaders as 'desperate' and was promptly put in his place by Sir Alex Ferguson later that week.
He clearly hasn't learned that he was looking like a tool (much like Garry Cook didn't recognise that until it was too late) and today has made comments about how Manchester City 'deserve' to win the League and Manchester United get all the decisions at Old Trafford.
Vieira states City deserve to win the League because they have played the best football, but clearly didn't receive the news that it was announced last week that 16 of the 20 top flight managers had nominated Tottenham as playing the best football this season.
I'm guessing the former Arsenal midfielder also missed the tape of Newcastle United being awarded a ridiculous penalty at Old Trafford earlier this season that cost Manchester United two points.
Granted it was a penalty on Monday night for the challenge on Fulham's Danny Murphy, but that has evened up the bad decision earlier this season, while Vieira also tried to hide the 'bitterness' that was brewing by suggesting all the big clubs get these decisions and that is what City are striving for.
I just think Vieira has not forgiven United were thwarting his dreams on more than one occasion during his time at Highbury, but surely someone needs to have a word that the team need to keep the focus on the field during this City run that has seen them drop to second in the League table rather than giving Sir Alex Ferguson more 'ammunition', which he already has 'plenty of'.
The relegation picture got a little murkier: Am I the only one that used to love it when the press would release their predictions as to who will win the League and who will go down based on how they thought the final fixtures would go?
I am going to release something like that on the blog in the coming days, before the weekend games, but what I do know is that last weeks results from the Premier League have made it a little tighter at the bottom of the League with all 5 teams still involved.
The biggest loser was Wolves who find themselves 4 points behind Bolton in the final position of safety (5 if you include their horrible goal difference), but a win for Wigan at Liverpool is a huge boost for their chances while Bolton beating Blackburn has dragged the latter back towards the trapdoor.
Momentum is a big thing at this stage and I think Bolton are leading that front, while Wigan and QPR have an awful set of fixtures to come. I would say Wolves will be all but down if they fail to beat Bolton this weekend at home because they have no momentum and nothing positive happening for them right now.
Blackburn had been playing better of late but the loss last week would have hurt them and it is getting tougher down the bottom. Aston Villa may want to be a little careful in thinking they are fine as there are only 8 points between them and QPR in 18th and they too have an awful set of fixtures to come and looked a little lost at times in their loss to Arsenal.
What is it with those Manchester City fans crying at Swansea and Stoke City?: I have a couple of theories: Either they had heard such a funny joke that it had brought tears to their eyes, or they have been following City for around two seasons.
I mean seriously, crying because the team is second in the table and still in control of their own destiny? (Win every game left and City are Champions as it stands).
This is a team that has gone 34 years without a trophy before winning the FA Cup last season, a team that was playing in the League One Play Offs just a few short years ago and one that has had more bad times than good for a generation.
Crying? I mean come on... It has been rightly ridiculed in a number of quarters, so much so that one of the so called 'fans' came on a radio show to claim he was just 'tired and frustrated'. Those 'fans' need to get a grip- it hasn't all be Sheikhs and financial fortunes at City in recent years and they haven't lost anything just yet.
It has been a busy time in the world of football as we get to 'squeaky bum time' meaning games are coming thick and fast, but I have found a slight window to put down a few thoughts on some of the issues that have arisen in the last couple of weeks.
The reaction to the Fabrice Muamba incident: This is something that united the football world as everyone hoped the best for the young midfielder, but more recently it has become a source of contention- not what happened to the player, but the reaction of people throughout the country.
The first thing we have to point out is the advances of social networking in the last ten years which has allowed people to put to their everyday thoughts down instantly. Therefore, any news can quickly expand and we can also see uprisings down to planned meetings on such sites, for example what happened in Egypt.
My position on Muamba is that when I initially heard what had happened, I was shocked... Not because of his age, but because it is a shock when a professional sports athlete would suddenly just collapse. It was the exact same reaction I had when I heard Daniel Jarque of Espanyol died after a training session in August 2009 and when Antonio Puerta of Sevilla died on the pitch in August 2007.
The issue I had was the number of one minute applauses held up and down the country at football matches in the days following Muamba's collapse... I could understand this a LOT more if he had passed away, but I found it a little distasteful considering he was still fighting for his life. The last time I checked, an applause was unlikely to be helpful and it just seemed really out of place because... well because Muamba was still alive.
I could understand his former clubs at Birmingham and Arsenal holding some sort of event to let Muamba's family know he wasn't forgotten as there were players that likely had played with him, and I could understand Spurs fans wanting to do something as they were sadly witnesses to the event, while Bolton was a given.
BUT I didn't understand the need to hold an applause at Chelsea v Leicester the day after Muamba collapsed, or at Blackburn v Sunderland on Tuesday evening.
It just seems to me that people want to show their grief at something like this as a barometer as to how decent a human being they are- if you didn't shed a tear or applaud or offer your thoughts at every moment in the following days while Muamba was fighting for his life and you were disregarded as being heartless and out of order.
The last couple of days we have seen people attack the Red Issue cover, which took a satirical dig at the people who have been OTT with their response to this whole issue- the ones that seem to revel in showing how upset they are over events they have no control of.
The people who seem to have the loudest voices offering their disgust at the cover also, unsurprisingly, seem to be the people that wanted to put their grief on their sleeves in the most prominent manner.
I just don't remember the reaction of these same people to Antonio Puerta when he actually DIED on the pitch as they have had for Fabrice Muamba who is, gladly, making a recovery from his unfortunate events.
The question I have left is in what situations will a one minute applause NOT be applicable from now on? A dangerous precedent has been set in my opinion, and one that has nothing to do with people's actual feelings on the matter, making much more reasonable requests for a minute's applause/silence just part of a national grieving day.
FA Cup Semi Final Dilemma: We are coming up to the 23rd anniversary since the Hillsborough Disaster and the FA have been left in a tough spot as to what they can do with the FA Cup Semi Finals that are due to take place that day.
Liverpool, understandably, have always requested not to play on April 15th and that is the date for the second Semi Final this season. The problem for the FA is that the other Semi Final involves Chelsea, a team that are likely to be playing a Champions League Semi Final on Tuesday following this weekend.
Now what to do? The first thing is they could talk to Liverpool and ask them their feelings of playing on April 15th considering they are meeting Everton, a local rival but one that was also affected by the events in 1989. It is no exaggeration to say families can be split down the middle in that City with their support for either Everton or Liverpool, so it could be the ultimate way to pay respects to those that lost their lives 23 years ago as the two famous clubs come together.
However, that is a question for Liverpool and they have every right to say they do not wish to play on that date regardless of the opposition.
Therefore, the FA have only two real options in my opinion for the Semi Finals. Both involves keeping the Sunday clear for Chelsea as well as they deserve to be given the best opportunity to win the Champions League and need the rest between this game and the Semi Final of the other competition.
The first is simply to move the Liverpool-Everton game to take place at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff... This stadium is closer to Liverpool than Wembley and this game could take place as the early game on Saturday 14th April, with Chelsea meeting Spurs at Wembley in the evening.
However, I think the FA are adamant in playing both Semi Finals at Wembley and the only reasonable idea seems to be Chelsea-Spurs meeting on Friday evening and leaving the Liverpool-Everton game on the Saturday. Some will argue that it is impossible for the police to ensure crowd safety for the Chelsea game if everyone has been on the drink during the day, but there have been night games between the teams in the past and the police have had night games at Wembley in the past.
It seems the most logical way to avoid any issues for Chelsea and Liverpool as both clubs will be keeping a close eye on this game. The London Semi Final makes sense to be played on a Friday night as most fans will be close enough to attend and it keeps the April 15th free for both Chelsea and Liverpool for their respective reasons.
Patrick Vieira is clearly still in touch with Garry Cook: That is the only logical reason I have for the comments coming out of the 'Manchester City legend' (he was there for 18 months at the end of his career) regarding Manchester United.
Last week he described the current League leaders as 'desperate' and was promptly put in his place by Sir Alex Ferguson later that week.
He clearly hasn't learned that he was looking like a tool (much like Garry Cook didn't recognise that until it was too late) and today has made comments about how Manchester City 'deserve' to win the League and Manchester United get all the decisions at Old Trafford.
Vieira states City deserve to win the League because they have played the best football, but clearly didn't receive the news that it was announced last week that 16 of the 20 top flight managers had nominated Tottenham as playing the best football this season.
I'm guessing the former Arsenal midfielder also missed the tape of Newcastle United being awarded a ridiculous penalty at Old Trafford earlier this season that cost Manchester United two points.
Granted it was a penalty on Monday night for the challenge on Fulham's Danny Murphy, but that has evened up the bad decision earlier this season, while Vieira also tried to hide the 'bitterness' that was brewing by suggesting all the big clubs get these decisions and that is what City are striving for.
I just think Vieira has not forgiven United were thwarting his dreams on more than one occasion during his time at Highbury, but surely someone needs to have a word that the team need to keep the focus on the field during this City run that has seen them drop to second in the League table rather than giving Sir Alex Ferguson more 'ammunition', which he already has 'plenty of'.
The relegation picture got a little murkier: Am I the only one that used to love it when the press would release their predictions as to who will win the League and who will go down based on how they thought the final fixtures would go?
I am going to release something like that on the blog in the coming days, before the weekend games, but what I do know is that last weeks results from the Premier League have made it a little tighter at the bottom of the League with all 5 teams still involved.
The biggest loser was Wolves who find themselves 4 points behind Bolton in the final position of safety (5 if you include their horrible goal difference), but a win for Wigan at Liverpool is a huge boost for their chances while Bolton beating Blackburn has dragged the latter back towards the trapdoor.
Momentum is a big thing at this stage and I think Bolton are leading that front, while Wigan and QPR have an awful set of fixtures to come. I would say Wolves will be all but down if they fail to beat Bolton this weekend at home because they have no momentum and nothing positive happening for them right now.
Blackburn had been playing better of late but the loss last week would have hurt them and it is getting tougher down the bottom. Aston Villa may want to be a little careful in thinking they are fine as there are only 8 points between them and QPR in 18th and they too have an awful set of fixtures to come and looked a little lost at times in their loss to Arsenal.
What is it with those Manchester City fans crying at Swansea and Stoke City?: I have a couple of theories: Either they had heard such a funny joke that it had brought tears to their eyes, or they have been following City for around two seasons.
I mean seriously, crying because the team is second in the table and still in control of their own destiny? (Win every game left and City are Champions as it stands).
This is a team that has gone 34 years without a trophy before winning the FA Cup last season, a team that was playing in the League One Play Offs just a few short years ago and one that has had more bad times than good for a generation.
Crying? I mean come on... It has been rightly ridiculed in a number of quarters, so much so that one of the so called 'fans' came on a radio show to claim he was just 'tired and frustrated'. Those 'fans' need to get a grip- it hasn't all be Sheikhs and financial fortunes at City in recent years and they haven't lost anything just yet.
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