Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 14th)

Wow, that was some day...

The last three weeks have been really frustrating, but I don't think any of the previous days have been as irritating as the last one.

I've lost count of the number of tie-breakers that have inched the other way this week, and those really hurt on Thursday.

Karen Khachanov won more points during the first set against Andrey Rublev, but lost a tie-breaker and was not able to take advantage of an early break in the second set.

Let's be honest- if Novak Djokovic plays that match with Lorenzo Musetti later this month, I think he wins well. He had Set Points at 5-2 and 5-3 in the first set and, even though he eventually won that set, Novak Djokovic was not able to regain the dominance he had in the match at that point and lost in a tight three setter.

But the worst of the misfortunes was saved for the last match of the day.

Alexander Zverev served for the match in the second and in the third set and also had a Match Point on serve in the final set tie-breaker.

I'd have been disappointed to have gone 2-1, but to have a 0-3 day is a bitter blow.

So it makes Friday pretty important- after the early positives for this season, I am having a look at what is going wrong at the moment. My feeling is that the majority of selections have fallen down due to bad luck rather than a bad look, but I am keeping a tight leash on the Tennis Picks and Friday's Quarter Final action will be important to get back to winning ways in what is likely going to be a tournament ending in a negative number.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 5-9, - 9.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 32.20% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 14th)

That was not a good day.

The late break when serving for the match in the final match of the day proved to be the difference and has taken the week from a winning position into a losing one.

But the only positive is that I can't really be unhappy with any of the selections made. It is only worse when you feel regret about any Pick you make, but that was not the case despite the losing day.

On Thursday we are down to the Third Round as the Monte Carlo Masters heats up and that means players who want to win the title are going to be asked to play every day through the remainder of the event. It looks like a very open tournament with a case to be made for a number of players and I do think the Third Round matches are highly competitive which means I have only three Picks from the eight matches set to be played.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: It was a tougher than expected Second Round match, but Casper Ruud did what he needed to in order to progress to the next Round at the Monte Carlo Masters. He will know that he needs to be stronger in the return part of his game, but the conditions in Monte Carlo should be a little easier to deal with on Thursday compared with Wednesday and being back on the red dirt should see Casper Ruud go from strength to strength.

Others have fallen by the wayside so it was important for Casper Ruud to dig in and beat Holger Rune having recovered from difficult spots in both the first and second sets.

He should be stronger with the match under his belt and Casper Ruud is facing an opponent in Grigor Dimitrov who is far from at his most comfortable on the clay courts. The Bulgarian had a solid win in the Second Round over Dusan Lajovic and also benefited from having Wednesday as a day off, but Grigor Dimitrov is going to have to expect to be put under a lot more pressure by Casper Ruud than he has faced in this tournament so far.

Much is going to depend on the Grigor Dimitrov serve and whether he can keep Casper Ruud under pressure- earning breaks against the Norwegian has been a challenge for opponents on the clay courts so it is imperative that Dimitrov serves well and tries to stick with the top ten Ranked player he is facing.

When they met on a hard court last year, Grigor Dimitrov was able to find enough breaks of serve to push Casper Ruud, although he ended up losing in a deciding set. Playing on the clay courts look to give Casper Ruud a much stronger edge and I think that shows up in the early match at the Monte Carlo Masters as the Third Round is completed through the day.

The performance on Wednesday was not the best, but Casper Ruud has plenty more to give on the clay courts and I am happy to back him here.

David Goffin - 1.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Any time you earn a win like the one that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina produced in the Second Round, it can be very difficult to pick yourself up emotionally and ready yourself for the next challenge. It cannot be ignored that Davidovich Fokina has not really had as many impressive wins as the one he put together against Novak Djokovic in the Second Round, and especially not on the clay courts.

He did win plenty of clay court matches last year too, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina plays in tight margins and the question is whether he has been able to refocus after the biggest win on his career.

Having a day off on Wednesday may actually benefit Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but he will have to produce some top tennis to beat a confident David Goffin who won the title in Marrakech last week.

After injuries have meant a loss of form, winning that title will have just reminded David Goffin of the level he can produce on the Tour. It may have been easy to not be able to get himself ready for the Monte Carlo Masters after investing a lot of energy into winning in Marrakech, but David Goffin has looked good in his two wins here and will be heading to the court looking to book himself a Quarter Final spot.

Those injuries and loss of form mentioned have meant a couple of difficult years on the clay courts, but David Goffin has looked good so far in 2022. Sustaining the level will not be easy, but I do think the David Goffin return game may give him an edge in this Third Round match.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has to be given plenty of respect with a solid return game of his own, but David Goffin has been serving at a considerably higher level on the clay courts. It is important to be able to do that and at least keep some of the pressure from building on you and I think the Belgian may have enough to beat out an opponent who needs to have recovered emotionally from a top win.

It would not be a massive surprise if we need three sets to separate these two players on the day, but I think David Goffin can do enough with his serve to edge to the victory.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: We have not really seen the best of Pablo Carreno Busta so far this week in Monte Carlo and there will be pressure on him to pick up his level if he is going to earn a spot in the Quarter Final of this Masters event. Instead of being the higher Ranked player as he has been in the first two matches here, Pablo Carreno Busta is taking on a top ten Ranked opponent who has returned to the clay in strong form.

Alexander Zverev was perhaps fortunate to avoid a suspension from the Tour for his actions in Acapulco and he did not have the best tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, but he did crush Federico Delbonis in the Second Round on Wednesday. He has also won a couple of matches against overmatched opponents on the surface in the Davis Cup, but the German is likely to be the first to admit that this is going to be the toughest test he has faced on the surface since losing in the French Open Semi Final last year.

The serve has been a big weapon for Alexander Zverev over the last couple of years on the red dirt and he is a productive returner which suggests he should be very comfortable on the surface. For a long time his numbers on the clay have been very impressive and Alexander Zverev will feel that his overall tennis is enough to secure his place in the Quarter Final.

Pablo Carreno Busta cannot really point to the same impressive numbers- he is holding 77% of service games on the clay courts in 2022 and breaking in 22% of return games, although the twelve month totals are stronger. The problem for the Spaniard is that those numbers have dipped significantly when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface.

The same is not true for Alexander Zverev who has kept his level very high when facing the better players on the Tour and I do think he is going to have the edge against Pablo Carreno Busta in this Third Round match.

Mentally he holds the edge too having won both previous matches between these players on the Tour, although both of those were on the hard courts. The last of those was played in the 2020 US Open and I do think Alexander Zverev remains the more consistent of the two top 20 Ranked players and his serve may prove to be the key difference between them on the day.

If he serves well, the return game should find the breaks needed to win this match by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update; 8-9, - 2.90 Units (34 Units Staked, - 8.53% Yield)

Monte Carlo Tennis Day 5 Picks 2021 (April 14th)

A much clearer day in Monaco has allowed the Monte Carlo Masters to get back on track and Wednesday is going to be another very busy day at the tournament.

Only two of the sixteen Second Round matches have been played and that means fourteen matches are scheduled to be played through the day. Some big names return on Tuesday having not played for a few weeks since the Australian Open as both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal begin their build ups towards the French Open.

In a Masters event it can be easy to be caught cold as some of the top names have played limited tennis since the first Grand Slam of the season. They will be going up against opponents who have been moving across the Tour and also someone who has won at least one match at this tournament so are comfortable in the conditions and it can be a ripe situation for an upset or two.

After a slow start to the week, I am hoping I can avoid some of those upsets and put some solid winners on the board as the tournament goes on.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: The Australian Open Champion returns for the first time since winning the opening Grand Slam of the 2021 season and Novak Djokovic is certainly going to be welcomed back by what looks like being a special talent on the Tour.

Jannik Sinner has already won a match here in Monte Carlo and he reached the Final of the first Masters of the season in Miami, albeit a tournament that is played on the hard courts. However it is felt that the Italian can play his best tennis on the clay courts and underlined his potential by beating Stefanos Tsitsipas, David Goffin and Alexander Zverev on this surface in the Autumn of 2020, while Sinner also pushed Rafael Nadal considerably harder than most would have thought at the French Open.

The confidence of the 19 year old cannot be underestimated and I really think Jannik Sinner takes to the court with the belief he can win every match he plays. There is also a real mental toughness displayed by Sinner and he showed that in his run to the Miami Masters Final having won matches where he looked to be under intense pressure from the opponent he was playing.

A solid serve and a very encouraging return game makes Jannik Sinner a dangerous opponent not only here in Monaco, but also when the draw for the French Open is made next month.

I have little doubt that Novak Djokovic is well aware of what he is going to be seeing from the other side of the net, but the Serb has long been one of the top three clay court players in the world along with Nadal and Dominic Thiem. After winning the Australian Open, Djokovic made it clear that his remaining ambitions in his career is trying to win as many Slams as possible and the rest of the Tour is solely about building towards each Slam.

However that does not mean Novak Djokovic will be taking to the court at other events without the intention of winning them and his return in Monte Carlo will be the start of a number of important weeks for the World Number 1. In recent seasons Novak Djokovic has not been able to have as deep a run in Monaco as you would imagine, but he should be comfortable in the conditions with a base here and I do think he showed how happy he is on the clay courts by winning the Rome Masters and reaching the French Open Final in a shortened clay court season in 2020.

Novak Djokovic is someone who has an elite return game and he is able to really get that side of his game going on this surface.

As well as Jannik Sinner has played on the clay courts in 2020 and in general in 2021, the Italian is likely to be put under pressure from Novak Djokovic once the World Number 1 gets his eye in. I do think it will be a competitive match with some strong tennis from both of these players, but Novak Djokovic is very confident on the clay courts and I think he will find a way to edge past this number of games on the handicap.

David Goffin - 2.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: He may have dropped back to Number 92 in the World Rankings and is now under pressure to hold onto a top 100 place, but Marco Cecchinato has an opportunity to at least pick up some vital World Ranking points in the weeks ahead. The Italian is still very capable of playing his best tennis on the clay courts, although he has not really found the consistency that he showed in 2018.

It is almost three full years since Marco Cecchinato reached the French Open Semi Final and he showed flashes of what is capable of by making it through to the Third Round at the same Grand Slam played at the back end of 2020. That was an encouraging run and Cecchinato had some solid results in other events too, although it has been more of a struggle to open this season.

At least the Italian can point to the three wins he has earned in Monte Carlo as a sign that there is perhaps going to be a turn in form having previously been 2-7 in matches played in 2021 before those victories. He has come through two Qualifying matches and then beaten a fellow Qualifier on his way to the Second Round, but that will mean Marco Cecchinato is going to be stronger if he is going to progress past a top 20 Ranked opponent.

David Goffin is a hard player to get that excited about having been so inconsistent over the last couple of years and fallen out of the top ten having reached a peak career Ranking in November 2017. The Belgian won a tough First Round match against Marin Cilic on Sunday, but David Goffin had lost three matches in row before the win over the veteran and his numbers in 2021 have been nothing to write home about.

He has previously shown some decent form on the clay courts, although David Goffin lost both matches played on the surface in 2020 without winning a set. There was a struggle in all aspects of his tennis in those two losses to Jannik Sinner and Marin Cilic, but Goffin is a player that has a decent return on the clay courts and is capable of getting enough of his serve to restrict the kind of damage a returner like Marco Cecchinato is able to create.

I do think David Goffin has to be encouraged about this Second Round match when you see some of the issues Marco Cecchinato has had behind serve and that can at least ease some of the pressure on the Goffin serve.

Mentally there may be some good memories for Cecchinato to take into the match having beaten David Goffin when these two last met on the clay courts which came at the French Open in 2018. However, Goffin has since beaten him on the hard courts and I do think David Goffin can edge to a victory here having been the superior return player of the two.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Masters Update: 2-4, - 4.58 Units (12 Units Staked, - 38.17% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 14-16)

The Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final matches were completed this past week and my fear of Liverpool going on and winning the Champions League is becoming a reality.

They deservedly got through their tie against Manchester City and Liverpool look like they are peaking at the right time with the likes of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid failing to impress in the same way.

Roma may have something to say about that, but I am not convinced about the Italian team who are also battling for a top four spot in Serie A while the other teams left can all rest players in anticipation of Champions League matches.

The Europa League Semi Final line up also looks a decent one as we were treated to more memorable comebacks in that competition after the stunning performances Roma and Juventus had in the Champions League. This time it was Salzburg who were 2-5 down on aggregate against Lazio with 35 minutes left of the Second Leg only for the Austrian Champions to score four unanswered goals to go through.


This weekend we are back to domestic matters around Europe but we are hitting that period of the season when some of the focus can be lost by those teams who have nothing much left to play for.

That can produce some surprise results while others in 'must win' situations see their prices shortened by the layers who know it is human nature to want to behind teams with 'motivational edges'.

You have to be aware of that, but this weekend in the Premier League there are plenty of matches with lots of the line for the teams involved even if the title and top four places look to be set.

The relegation battle could also see some separation this weekend as games begin to run down and this is still an important weekend for the teams involved as we enter the final month of the season in the Premier League.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: This is a preview of the second FA Cup Semi Final to be played next weekend but for Southampton there is no doubting the more important fixture.

Being relegated from the Premier League would be a big blow for Southampton but they are beginning to feel the pressure of that after losing their third Premier League game in a row last weekend.

For the third time in a row they have also conceded three times in those defeats although Southampton do get to return home this weekend.

They could be facing Chelsea at the right time with the top four chances likely gone and only the FA Cup left to really play for. However that may also mean Chelsea can head to St Mary's without too much pressure and that may see them show a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

With the likes of Eden Hazard and Willian supporting Alvaro Morata, Chelsea will believe they can create plenty of chances against a vulnerable Southampton defence. They were perhaps unfortunate not to score at least another against West Ham United last weekend and a similar level of performance going forward should be good enough for Chelsea.

Southampton have been tough to beat at home as shown by draws with Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur in their last 8 League games here. However a lack of goals has to be a worry for Mark Hughes as he tries to take his new club out of the bottom three and the problems at the other end have underlined those.

Chelsea have won on 3 of their last 4 visits to St Mary's and they visit without the pressure the home side will be feeling this weekend. I think that makes enough of a difference for Chelsea to pick up another victory on this ground and snap their poor recent run of away results.

However with the way Chelsea have been defending themselves, I imagine they will need to score at least twice to win here and backing them to win a match with two or more goals looks an appealing price compared to the odds on quotes for a Chelsea win.


Burnley v Leicester City Pick: This fixture might not have huge ramifications at the top and bottom of the Premier League but it could determine the team which is likely to earn the final Europa League spot next season.

Assuming Southampton don't surprise everyone and win the FA Cup, 7th place in the Premier League will come with a Europa League spot and Burnley have won 4 games in a row to take control of that position.

Avoiding defeat would keep Burnley in a position of strength, but a win would almost certainly mean a 7th place finish for Sean Dyche's men. That will keep the players focused against a Leicester City team who have won back to back away League games at West Brom and Brighton, although they had to ride their luck in the win over Brighton.

Last weekend Leicester City were beaten 1-2 at home by Newcastle United to dent their hopes of a top seven finish and this is a very tough Stadium to visit.

Burnley don't score a lot of goals which will give Leicester City a chance, but I think the home team are in strong form and playing with a little more confidence than The Foxes. That may be enough for the home team to earn the victory, although I will back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw here.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: When you look at the remaining fixtures that Crystal Palace have to play you would think they have enough to earn the points to avoid the drop out of the Premier League.

The recent results may not suggest that is the case, but they have been performing far better than those results have indicated. Late goals being conceded has been a real issue for Crystal Palace who have lost their last 3 home games against teams in the top four with goals conceded in the 84th minute or later.

However Crystal Palace also led against Liverpool and Manchester United which should give the players the belief they can get the better of those teams around them. The 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last weekend is another game in which Crystal Palace led twice and conceded late to drop two points, but they are scoring goals and that may be enough to see off a Brighton team who have not scored a lot of away goals.

Brighton have been tough to beat with Chris Hughton organising them effectively and they will also be keen on securing another win which would almost certainly keep their status as a Premier League club. They have not scored a lot of goals on their travels though and Brighton were not at their best last weekend which should give Crystal Palace the edge in this one.

A rivalry game can be tough to read though and Brighton will feel they can create tension in the Stadium which may see the nerves move into the home players. However I do think Crystal Palace have shown enough in recent weeks to pick up the win in this one and I can see them scoring twice which may be too much for Brighton to earn a result.


Huddersfield Town v Watford Pick: There are five Premier League games left for Huddersfield Town this season and you have to think the next two at home are going to be vital if they are going to avoid the drop back into the Championship.

Back to back home games against teams in mid-table in the Premier League should be an opportunity for Huddersfield Town to pick up some key points and I do think they can begin with a result against Watford.

Goals are a big problem for Huddersfield Town which tempers some of the enthusiasm for them this week, but they should be confident of doing enough against a Watford side that have not been in the best focus in recent games.

There is no doubting that there is some quality in the Watford squad, but they look like a side that want to do the bare minimum to survive and then perhaps lose some of the focus. The away form doesn't make for good reading either with Watford failing to win any of their last 10 away games, losing 9 of those and only scoring twice in that time.

That should encourage Huddersfield Town and I do think The Terriers can win this one even though it will be tough. The performance in Brighton last weekend would have shown the players what they are capable of achieving and I think Huddersfield Town's motivation could also be enough to see off a poor travelling Watford team.

I don't think the away side will roll over, but they may not show a lot of fight if Huddersfield Town are able to take the lead and backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the pick. That will return the stake in the event of the draw, but I can see Huddersfield Town just edging out Watford and earning a vital three points towards safety.


Swansea City v Everton Pick: We have got to the stage of the season where teams are beginning to become a little desperate for points and Swansea City have to deal with the pressure of expectation as they bid to avoid the drop.

Fixtures like this one will have been circled by Swansea City to earn three points which will give them a huge boost of confidence to take into the remaining five games. That does put some pressure on the players to perform like the manager will want especially in front of the expectant fans too and that is one danger for Swansea City.

However they have been able to cope with pressurised spots since Carlos Carvalhal has taken over as manager of the club and Swansea City have been particularly good at home. They may have been thumped in the FA Cup Quarter Final by Tottenham Hotspur, but Swansea City have won 4 straight League games here and now face a team who don't travel the best.

Sam Allardyce has not managed to win over the Everton fans and they have looked a team short of some confidence despite 1 loss in 4 League games. The side have particularly faced some hardship away from home even though Everton did snap their 6 game losing run on their travels in the 1-2 win at Stoke City last time out.

That win came in a game where Stoke City were reduced to ten men in the first half hour and that obviously had a big impact on the fixture.

In recent seasons Everton have not had a lot of success at Swansea City and I do think the home team can edge them out. Backing Swansea City to keep their run of home wins going looks to be the right side and I will do that on the Asian Handicap which at least returns the stake in the event of a draw.


Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: Getting through to the Champions League Semi Final was a remarkable achievement for Liverpool and the fans will be hoping they can win the competition for the sixth time in their history.

The draw for the Semi Final will have been made on Friday, but Jurgen Klopp will try and ensure his players are not distracted and can focus on their Premier League campaign. There is still work to be done for Liverpool to confirm their spot in the top four of the Premier League and Klopp will want to earn a vital three points on Saturday to move a step closer to achieving that goal.

Being at Anfield means Liverpool will start this game as a very strong favourite which can't be denied. However Bournemouth will try and play their football and they have shown they can score goals even when visiting the top clubs after beating Chelsea 0-3 at Stamford Bridge.

Bournemouth try and get the ball down on the floor and that can be very pleasing on the eye but also potentially leaves them open for some heavy losses. It is no surprise that Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have all scored four times in wins over The Cherries this season and that has to be a concern for Eddie Howe.

He won't change his style though and Bournemouth may be able to at least get on the scoreboard too as they should be much better rested than Liverpool. Ultimately I still think Liverpool will have too much attacking class for Bournemouth who have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks and I will back the home side to win a game featuring four or more goals at odds against.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: I am not entirely sure why the Tottenham Hotspur versus Manchester City Premier League fixture has been picked for Saturday at 7:45pm local time but that is the case for the third live Premier League game of the day.

There isn't as much on the line for the two teams as the television companies would have hoped for when they picked this for live coverage. Manchester City are going to win the Premier League while Tottenham Hotspur look secure for a top four finish, but that doesn't mean this shouldn't be a good game of football.

Both teams play with attacking football on their mind and I think it should be an entertaining game for those tuning in.

It's hard to imagine Manchester City losing four games in a row when you think of how well they have played throughout this season, but that is the potential for this side going into the weekend.

They haven't played badly in any of their defeats, but Manchester City look slightly off the pace as a long season begins to take its toll on the players. It has been hard for Manchester City to maintain the intensity they have used for much of the season and a team like Tottenham Hotspur are more than good enough to take advantage.

Unlike Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur have had a week to prepare for this fixture and they are at Wembley Stadium where they have been very strong this season. Tottenham Hotspur look to be playing with more confidence than Manchester City too and I think they can get at a vulnerable looking Manchester City defence and expose the issues at the back.

As I said before, it is hard to imagine Manchester City losing a fourth straight game in all competitions, but they are facing a tough opponent here.

Backing Tottenham Hotspur on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. I think Spurs have enough to win this one though with the quality in their starting line up and with Manchester City looking slightly off the pace and I will be behind Tottenham Hotspur in this one.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: You have to say that Arsenal are showing some character in difficult moments in recent weeks but the majority of those have come in matches at the Emirates Stadium.

It is a different test for this team when they play away from home and Arsenal have a difficult game at Newcastle United on Sunday.

While their hosts will have been resting and preparing for this fixture, Arsenal had a tough away tie in Moscow on Thursday and I am expecting Arsene Wenger to make some changes to his starting line up. There is still some real quality in the Arsenal team which makes them dangerous for opponents, but I do wonder about the mental strength away from home in the Premier League considering they have won 3 of 15 away League games.

They may be visiting Newcastle United at a tough time with the home team recording 3 straight home wins in the League. They have kept clean sheets in each of those wins and will be confident of snapping their 10 game losing run to Arsenal.

Newcastle United have lost 4 in a row at home against them, but I do feel this is a good schedule spot for them and I will back The Magpies to take advantage of that.

The home team could be facing an Arsenal team who will be resting key players for more important games in the weeks ahead. The travel from Moscow and little preparation time is a difficult spot for The Gunners too and I will back Newcastle United to find a way to earn a result in this one.


Manchester United v West Brom Pick: There should be a positive atmosphere at Old Trafford after the fans saw Manchester United come from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 2-3 in the derby at the Etihad Stadium last weekend.

The game this weekend is not as big as that one, but Manchester United will try and pick up where they left off last Saturday and that is getting on the front foot to take the game to West Brom.

The visitors come into this fixture having snapped their 9 game losing run with a 1-1 home draw last week against Swansea City, but they look certain to be relegated from the Premier League. Dave Moore is currently in charge as temporary manager of West Brom following Alan Pardew's departure, but this is a team low on confidence and one that is never too far away from capitulating.

It is going to be very difficult for West Brom to compete with Manchester United who have been in very strong form at Old Trafford, although the fans will be hoping for more consistent attacking from Manchester United. One aspect that can be improved is the number of goals being scored and Manchester United have only scored more than two goals in 1 of their last 10 Premier League games at Old Trafford.

Last weekend they did surpass that number against Manchester City and Manchester United are facing a West Brom team who have lost 4 away games in a row. The Baggies have conceded at least twice in 3 of those 4 losses and I do think their recent strong record at Old Trafford won't count for much here.

With the momentum from last weekend Manchester United should be looking to get on the front foot in this League game and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap here. It would not be a big surprise if West Brom just drop their heads if they fall behind and struggle to compete, and that could see Manchester United produce a comfortable win on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Chelsea Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2016 (April 14th)

Wednesday has to be described as a really frustrating day for the tennis picks with some poor ones coupled in with a little bit of bad luck and I have been a little disappointed by that.

It has meant the week has descended into a negative position over the last couple of days, but there is still time to turn things around with the Third Round of the Monte Carlo Masters all scheduled to be played on Thursday.


I can't go on without mentioning the big surprise of the tournament as Novak Djokovic was beaten in his first match back on the clay courts. It isn't a result that should overly worry Djokovic fans as he looks to add the French Open to his Grand Slam trophy cabinet, but it is a defeat that might have encouraged many of his rivals as Djokovic had been dominating recent Masters events.

It has opened the door for the rest of the field to put up some big Ranking points by winning this event in the absence of Novak Djokovic and build some momentum for the rest of the clay court season. There are some big events coming up in the next few weeks and so winning a Masters event is the kind of performance that could see someone get into a confident state to have a real assault at winning the French Open.

The absence of Djokovic has opened up the top half of the draw and I am looking forward to which of those players can take advantage of their draw the best.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: The arrival of his first child and an absence from the Tour was always going to be tough for Andy Murray to deal with. I still think there will be surprised faces that he has yet to really have an impact on his return having been beaten early in both Indian Wells and Miami and so this tournament in Monte Carlo is an important one for the World Number 2.

Everyone reacts differently to becoming a parent for the first time and I think Murray is yet to find his groove back on the court. He came through a Second Round match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert in three sets which might set Murray up for a strong week, but he needs to be a little more solid behind serve and keep the focus on his tennis.

The match up with Benoit Paire should be one that Murray can enjoy with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play likely to frustrate the Frenchman. I still can't quite believe Paire is close to breaking into the top 20 in the World Rankings as he has a lot of early exits in the 2016 season, although his confidence could be in a good place having won two matches in Monte Carlo already.

Paire has a decent serve when he is playing his best tennis, but he goes through too many patches of playing some poor stuff and I think that will make a difference in this one. I expect Murray will have some difficult moments protecting serve, but ultimately I think he will be able to break down the Paire game in a 75, 63 win.


Milos Raonic - 4.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Beating Pablo Cuevas was not an easy task for Milos Raonic, but he has come through that difficult test and I expect better from the Canadian when he faces Damir Dzumhur in the Third Round. The latter surprised me with his win over Tomas Berdych in the Second Round, but a lot of that was down to a really poor performance from the Czech player.

There will be some confidence that Dzumhur can upset Raonic too if the latter is not serving as effectively as he can. He didn't serve well against Cuevas and could easily have been beaten, but Raonic might hold the mental edge having crushed Dzumhur for the loss of just three games in Miami last month.

That result might not bother Dzumhur having already won four matches in Monte Carlo and beating Tomas Berdych in the impressive way he did on Wednesday. His movement can see him extract errors, but the key will be if he can get enough balls back from the Raonic serve like he was doing when facing Berdych in the Second Round.

It is important for Dzumhur as his own serve will give Raonic some chances to break serve and I think that will be the reason he is unable to back up his upset win on Wednesday. I can't imagine Raonic making as many sloppy mistakes behind his serve as he did in his own match and I expect he can come through with a 63, 64 win.


Dominic Thiem + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: A win over Aljaz Bedene helped Rafael Nadal into the Third Round, but the big story out of that victory for me was Bedene's assertion that Nadal's forehand has become his weaker wing. There is little doubt that he is not getting the penetration through the court that the Spaniard used to get from that wing, but beating Nadal on a clay court is still a big challenge for most players.

He did crush Dominic Thiem when they met at the French Open in 2014, but the more recent meeting came during the Golden Swing in South America earlier this season. On that occasion it was the young Austrian who got the better of Nadal thanks to a third set tie-breaker and Thiem is certainly someone who could be a threat during the next six weeks heading into the French Open.

There is plenty of strong movement that Thiem brings to the court, but he also is able to find plenty of penetration through the clay courts which makes him very dangerous. He has a decent return game which should give Thiem a chance to take at least a set in this one and I expect this is going to be a very close match that could go either way.

I think Thiem is more than capable of beating Nadal and will have that same belief having done it on a clay court already in 2016. The Nadal serve is far from unbreakable and I think Thiem can enjoy enough success to make these games count when the final score is produced.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Last season at the French Open, Stan Wawrinka crushed Gilles Simon on his way to winning the title at Roland Garros. I would be very surprised if Wawrinka was to dominate this match in the same manner, but I do think the Swiss player is the more likely winner of this Third Round match.

You might think the slower courts would favour someone like Simon who has decent movement and can get plenty of balls back in play, but the slower courts mean his counter punching doesn't have the same penetration as on the hard courts. That can prove a problem when Simon's own shots will give his opponent time to earn clean hits from them and someone like Wawrinka can take advantage of that.

Wawrinka just needs to protect his serve better than he did in the win over Philipp Kohlschreiber when a couple of sloppy games made the match much closer than it should have been. However the Swiss player should get plenty of chances to break serve with Simon not having the same pop on the serve as Kohlschreiber can produce and I think Wawrinka will prove too strong in this Third Round match.

He is a former winner here and Wawrinka may be thinking of once again winning this Masters event to show he is ready to defend the French Open title he won last season. I think Wawrinka will prove a little too good in both sets in this one and come through with a 64, 64 kind of win.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Roger Federer made his return to the Tour following knee surgery with a routine win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Second Round. He faces another Spaniard in the Third Round in Roberto Bautista Agut and Roger Federer has to be happy with the draw having won the last four matches between these two.

It is a comfortable match up for Federer who knows exactly what Bautista Agut is capable of producing- while the latter has played well in 2016, he is the kind of player that will give Federer the rhythm to build his confidence while the serve is not overpowering and will allow Federer to have his way on the return.

The key for Federer is seeing how the knee holds up after his first match since the Australian Open. If he is able to have come through that without any setbacks, Federer should have every chance of recording another fairly comfortable win over Bautista Agut having won all ten sets against this opponent in the past.

In the last three matches between these players, Bautista Agut has yet to break serve and only produced one break point. That should change on a slow clay court, but Federer should have control of this match and I think he will be too strong on the day as he produces another straight sets win over the Spaniard and covers this number.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-7, - 6.42 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.18% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (April 12-14)

I've not made any picks from the football over the last few weeks thanks to a busy trip to Las Vegas and perhaps not finding the right choices over the last weekend. Sometimes it is better to err on the side of caution when you feel the right decisions are not going to be made through lack of time to research, or simply a gut feeling it isn't right.

It has worked for me over the last three months which have all produced a positive return from the football picks as I get this season turned around after a pretty horrific start. There is still work to do over the last couple of months to make sure this is a positive season, which would be huge considering I had all but given up on that happening back in December.


The first picks from the April matches comes from the Second Legs of the European Quarter Finals to be played this week as well as from the FA Cup Sixth Round Replay between West Ham United and Manchester United. There is also a single Premier League game to be played as teams try to make sure they are on schedule to finish the season on time and that game involves two teams that will be playing at Wembley Stadium in under two weeks time in the FA Cup Semi Finals, although Crystal Palace and Everton are not facing one another in that Semi Final.

It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain who are trying to reach the Champions League Semi Final for the first time under current ownership, while Louis Van Gaal will be desperate for a positive result in the Cup for Manchester United.

Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund meet again for a place in the Europa League Semi Final and it should be an interesting three days of football for the neutrals out there.


Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This is a huge game for two clubs owned by people based in the Middle East as both Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain are on the edge of making the Champions League Semi Final. The 2-2 draw in Paris has set up the Second Leg in Manchester nicely and I can only see another game where both clubs put their attacking talent on show.

There is no doubt that Paris Saint-Germain have to go forward as they need to score at least once to earn their way into the Semi Final. The game last week has still given them confidence they can win this tie after creating plenty of chances, while suspensions to the likes of David Luiz and Blaise Matuidi means they can't rely on their defence to help them through.

On the other hand, Manuel Pellegrini has admitted that he will not play for the draw as that will likely mean Manchester City are going to be knocked out of the competition. That means an attacking team looking to take advantage of the missing defensive pieces for Paris Saint-Germain and it is all pointing to another game featuring goals.

The layers understand the situation and the prices for goals have been shrunk in the last week and I can completely agree with those hammering those prices. I can only see the Second Leg having a similar feel to the First Leg and I can see both teams looking to get forward as much as possible to score the goals to help them into a maiden Semi Final.

Backing goals was my feeling from this game since the tie was made and I am not going to change my mind on that front.


Real Madrid v Wolfsburg Pick: It was easily the most stunning result of the Champions League Quarter Final First Legs as Wolfsburg took a commanding lead over Real Madrid. This tie is far from over though and I think the home team have been playing well enough to get things turned around, especially if Wolfsburg are as poor as they were at Manchester United and PSV Eindhoven earlier in the Champions League.

This is a difficult position for Wolfsburg to be in- do they twist and look for the away goal that might be enough to put this tie to bed, or do they sit back and hope to defend their 2-0 advantage?

That uncertainty should give Real Madrid a chance to build up some momentum and this is a team that has scored plenty of goals at home. With a full squad, I do think Real Madrid will be confident they can get this deficit turned around and I believe they are going to have a similar response to when Bayern Munich overturned their First Leg deficit against Porto twelve months ago.

I am not disrespecting Wolfsburg in that sense, but I simply don't believe they are able to stand up to the pressure they will be under this week. Playing away from home in a raucous Madrid cauldron is tough and that has helped Real Madrid overturn First Leg defeats in the past.

Real Madrid will get through is my feeling and I am going to back them on the Asian Handicap to cover the two goals they are being asked to by the layers.


Atletico Madrid v Barcelona Pick: All four Champions League Quarter Finals look to be in the balance and this one between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona is one that all the other teams will have a keen eye on. Before the First Legs, Barcelona looked to be the team to beat in the Champions League, but they are in a very dangerous position against an Atletico Madrid team that recorded a 1-0 win over them at this stage two seasons ago to progress to the Semi Finals.

That experience will be key for Atletico Madrid, but they have struggled to put together the Diego Simeone game plan against Barcelona so far this season. Last week they were unfortunate in being reduced to ten men early in the game, but the more worrying factor has to be that Atletico Madrid have had the lead in all three games against Barcelona this season and lost all three of them by the same 2-1 scoreline.

What I have come to expect from a Simeone side is a strong defensive shape that would be incredibly tough to break down once Atletico Madrid have had the lead, but Barcelona have not been fazed so far.

On the other hand, Barcelona are arguably coming into this Second Leg at their lowest ebb in terms of confidence for over twelve months. They seem to be over-reliant on the front three doing all the attacking damage and it is clear Barcelona will need more than Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez to unlock an eleven man Atletico Madrid team.

We will also see Atletico Madrid have to come forward as they need at least one goal and I think this is an intriguing Second Leg for the neutrals to enjoy.

The layers are expecting a tight game, but I think we may see goals again between these two teams with Barcelona always dangerous and Atletico Madrid likely needing a couple of goals themselves to stay in the tie. I was a little surprised that the layers have dangled odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out for a fourth time between these teams this season and I am finding it hard to ignore that.

This is a game that could easily see a late goal with the chances of entering the final 15 minutes at 1-1 and that meaning counter attacking opportunities as well as a team loading the box with attacking players. The odds against quote for goals just looks wrong to me and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Benfica v Bayern Munich Pick: Another Champions League tie which is finely balanced heading into the Second Leg takes place in Lisbon on Wednesday and this could be a surprisingly open game if the First Leg is anything to go by. It might have ended 1-0 to Bayern Munich in Germany last week, but there were chances at both ends and an early goal in Lisbon will open things up you would expect.

Some might think a 1-0 lead for Benfica will slow things down, but Bayern Munich are unlikely to change their game plan and the home side will be expected to get forward where possible. On the other hand, an away goal for Bayern Munich will force Benfica to get forward to score the three goals to move into the Semi Final for the first time in over twenty-five years.

Perhaps things will be tighter after an open game in Munich, but I can't see either team changing their style too much in this one. Bayern Munich have a few defensive injuries which make them vulnerable and Benfica have to take heart from the fact that Porto beat this team 3-1 at home at this stage of the Champions League last season.

It would be a big surprise to see Bayern Munich fall into such a defeat again and I have to say this is a team that has goals in the squad as they showed in Turin in a 2-2 draw with Juventus. Bayern Munich also look vulnerable when they concede though and I think there might be a few goals shared out between the teams in this Second Leg.

At odds against, backing at least three goals to be scored as the teams show a little more composure in front of goal looks to be the call for me. I fancy Bayern Munich will win the game, but they look like a team that might concede in doing so and backing goals looks to be the outcome of this one.


West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: After the capitulation at White Hart Lane and the stories that the players were vocal in their lack of support for Louis Van Gaal this has become a huge game for the manager if he wants to see out his contract as manager of Manchester United.

The FA Cup might not be salvation enough for Van Gaal without a top four position in the bag, but it is a competition in which he is desperate to progress. The pressure is on Manchester United having failed to win the initial tie at Old Trafford especially as they have lost 5 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.

That task is only made tougher by the form West Ham United have been producing in recent months and there is no doubt that they are rightly favoured. Up until the game on Sunday at White Hart Lane, Manchester United had bafflingly been made the favourites to win this Replay, but I can't see how anyone could have suggested that on the form of the two clubs.

Take away the names involved and it is hard to imagine how West Ham United are not stronger favourites to win this one. They have the creativity and pace in forward areas that Manchester United fans will be envious of and Slaven Bilic has put a lot of faith in his side winning the Cup this season.

Manchester United have struggled away from home in recent games and West Ham United look a team that can score goals which is going to be tough for Louis Van Gaal's team to keep up with. As a fan I would love for Manchester United to prove me wrong, but West Ham United look a really big price to win this Replay and their current form suggests this is likely to only go one way.


Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: A win for either of these teams in the Premier League on Wednesday should be enough to make sure they are going to be playing in this League again next season. There should be some freedom in the way both teams are able to play in this fixture with the three points on the line and no immediate concern regarding relegation especially for Crystal Palace after beating Norwich City over the weekend.

Both teams have shown some defensive vulnerabilities and both have attacking talent at their disposal which should lead to an entertaining game for the fans who get to watch this one.

It has to be noted that both Crystal Palace and Everton home/away games respectively have not featured a lot of goals in recent games, but there is a chance this one bucks the trend.

There is enough in the forward areas to think both teams will have chances in this one and I think the problems in defence that both Crystal Palace and Everton have had can see openings for both. With both managers desperate for a win, I can see this being an attacking game for the most part and backing goals at odds against looks to be the call.


Sparta Prague v Villarreal Pick: A 2-1 defeat in Spain would have given Sparta Prague the kind of platform to earn their way past Villarreal in this Quarter Final, but it looks like the home team are facing an injury crisis at the wrong time. That won't have sapped all their confidence with Sparta Prague having a really good run in the Europa League and they have won 4 of their last 6 home games in this competition.

Even a full strength Sparta Prague team might have been considered the underdog against Villarreal with a 1-2 deficit to overturn, but they would have been feeling more confident if they could call on everyone.

However they will go into this Second Leg in the position they are in and a long unbeaten run at home will get the fans behind them as they look to surprise Villarreal. The Spanish side have not exactly pulled up too many trees when travelling in the Europa League while they have recently ended an 8 game away run without a win with a victory at Eibar.

That might make this more of a Second Leg than the layers think as they have placed Villarreal as odds on favourites to win here. I think the home side will push Villarreal despite the injuries through the squad and Sparta Prague have proven they can upset teams through their run to the Europa League Quarter Final.

It would be a surprise if Sparta Prague didn't continue to try and impose their attacking style on proceedings and that might help this become an entertaining game for those watching. I will be backing both teams to earn some goal-scoring chances through the contest and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Liverpool v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Jurgen Klopp has been the focal point for this Europa League Quarter Final tie and there should be more of the same when Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund meet at Anfield on Thursday. The tie is finely balanced for the Second Leg following the 1-1 draw in Dortmund last week, although it is the German side that remain the favourites to progress.

If last week is anything to go by, this Second Leg could be another very interesting and exciting game to watch for the neutrals. Jurgen Klopp will ask his team to get forward and it has been made clear by Thomas Tuchel that he will send his Borussia Dortmund team out looking for goals and taking risks to achieve their goals.

This should really be a fast paced game and either team scoring should spark the game into life and you have to think goals will be produced.

Both teams have some real attacking talent and neither defence can really say they are strong enough to repel attack after attack for long periods. That should see both managers urging their team forward to win the game rather than protect whatever they may have and that should produce at least one more goal than last week.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the call from this game.


Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Both Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao have just hit a stumbling block in terms of form in recent games, but it is Sevilla who have a distinct advantage in this Quarter Final having won the First Leg 1-2 away from home.

There is little doubt that Sevilla are now putting all their eggs in the Europa League basket as they look to get back into the Champions League. With the added experience of having won this competition two years in a row, Sevilla should know exactly what they need to do to make sure they are moving through to yet another Semi Final.

I am sure they will be pushed by Athletic Bilbao, but this is a team that had lost 3 of 4 games prior to their 1-0 win over Rayo Vallecano this past weekend. Athletic Bilbao have also lost their last 2 away games and have been beaten in 3 of their last 4 away visits to Seville.

The pressure is on Athletic Bilbao to make the running as they need to score at least twice to win this Quarter Final and I think that will work for Sevilla. The home team might have seen their 17 game winning run in front of their own fans come to an end in their last game against Real Sociedad, but Sevilla are comfortable in their home surroundings.

I can see Sevilla picking off Athletic Bilbao if the away side begin to get desperate to get back into this tie and I like Sevilla to win the Second Leg to comfortably move into the Semi Final.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting Braga Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk looked to be the much stronger team when they visited Sporting Braga in the First Leg and they are deservedly in the lead in the tie. There is a feeling the lead should be by a wider margin than it is, but Shakhtar Donetsk will still be strong favourites to progress to the Semi Final.

The onus is on Sporting Braga to push the tempo, but they will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to have a chance to turn around the deficit in this Quarter Final. Finding the right balance between attack and defence is the key for Sporting Braga, but they have not played well in recent away games.

That suggests it is going to be beyond their capabilities to earn the victory in the Ukraine to move into the Semi Final and I think Shakhtar Donetsk can pick them off when the Portuguese visitors over-commit. Shakhtar Donetsk are the team in better form and have home advantage and I can see them continuing their run of successes in the Knock Out Stage of the Europa League.

Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 straight Knock Out ties and I am expecting them to get themselves into the Semi Final draw with another victory on Thursday in the Second Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester City-PSG Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 Bet365 (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benfica-Bayern Munich Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sparta Prague-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Liverpool-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)

March Final: 22-17-2, + 9.06 Units (80 Units Staked, + 11.33% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)

January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)

December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 129-168-2, - 8.49 Units (652 Units Staked, - 1.30% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)