Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 9th April)

The first clay court Tennis Pick of the season produced a frustrating result, but it is only day one and there are still two months of action to get through.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had his chances, but ultimately missed the cover by a game after missing the multiple Break Points opportunities he had in the middle of set two and beginning of set three. By the time he brought his clinical best tennis into the biggest moments, the cover was missed and the final set 6-2 win was too little, too late (for the Pick if not for his own personal record at the tournament in Monte Carlo).

The rest of the Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and it is another very busy day in Monte Carlo.

As frustrating as it was on Tuesday, taking careful steps is the only way forward if we want to build on what has been a productive start to the 2025 season.

Two matches have made the shortlist and the selections can be read below.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: Partnering with Marat Safin will have made the headlines, but Andrey Rublev will be much happier if it leads to a bit more consistency on the Tour. He is the World Number 9, which means a Bye through to the Second Round in Monte Carlo, but it has not been the most consistent of twelve months and Rublev is looking for answers to just turn things back around.

The form in 2025 has been feast of famine for Andrey Rublev- he has lost opening matches in Hong Kong, Indian Wells and Miami and was also beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has also won a big title in Doha and had a Quarter Final and Semi Final run during the indoor hard court season in Europe.

An opening clay court match would have been tough anyway, even if Rublev is very comfortable on the surface, but that challenge is that much greater when opposed by someone like Gael Monfils. All of the support in the crowd will be with the player on the other side of the net, which is a challenge to deal with, while Gael Monfils continues to enjoy an Indian Summer with some big performances throughout 2025.

His fightback to comfortably win his First Round match will have certainly helped Gael Monfils after a couple of difficult years playing on the clay. The numbers have not been good enough on the clay in recent seasons with the Gael Monfils serve looking vulnerable, but that First Round win will improve the confidence even as he steps up his level considerably to face a top ten Ranked opponent.

Andrey Rublev, for all his troubles, continues to serve well and that will be key in working his way past the veteran home player.

Breaks have to be expected in this match on this surface, but Andrey Rublev may get his clay court season underway with a solid win over an opponent in good form. His partnership with Marat Safin will be enjoyable to watch, and the hope for Rublev is that his compatriot can just help spark his season with a solid win to open up.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Valentin Vacherot: For the second year in a row, Valentin Vacherot represents Monaco in the Monte Carlo Masters and he is up against Grigor Dimitrov.

The 26 year old will receive plenty of support, although he is facing a popular player, but the World Number 255 has a gap in quality to bridge and that is the much bigger issue for him to deal with.

A Davis Cup win over Nuno Borges on the clay courts will have given Valentin Vacherot confidence, but the majority of the opponents he faces on the Tour are Ranked outside the top 100 and he was crushed by Damir Dzumhur last week in Bucharest.

The First Round win over Jan-Lennard Struff will help, but it is still asking a lot of Valentin Vacherot to compete with Grigor Dimitrov, even if the Bulgarian is much happier on the faster surfaces.

In saying that, it would be foolish to think that Grigor Dimitrov cannot compete on the clay courts with his positive numbers throughout his career suggesting otherwise. His First Round win over Nicolas Jarry underlines the ability of Dimitrov on the red dirt and the World Number 18 has won 66% of his matches played on the clay since the beginning of the 2022 season.

This includes a routine win over Valentin Vacherot on the clay courts of Monte Carlo twelve months ago when Grigor Dimitrov was able to find four Breaks of serve. During that match he only allowed a single Break Point to be created against his own serve and pushed through the gears through the second set to comfortably progress past the Wild Card.

Something similar could happen in this Second Round match with Grigor Dimitrov expected to be able to get on top of rallies as they develop.

Much like that match in 2024, the first set could be competitive, but that soon followed by a more routine set for Grigor Dimitrov and he can do the same here to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 8th April)

Finishing the Miami Masters with a positive return wrapped up the first quarter of the tennis season and concluded the opening stint on the hard courts.

As mentioned at the time, the decision was made to wait until the Monte Carlo Masters before the opening clay court Tennis Picks of the season would be made and that was mainly so the events on the European red dirt would begin. There have been events in the United States, which always feel like clay courts that play a lot differently than those in the build up towards the French Open, while the ATP events last week were at the 250 level and they were events which would give us some early indication of the form of those much lower in the World Rankings.

The Monte Carlo Masters is perhaps not seen in the same light as Madrid and Rome in the preparation for the French Open, but a very solid field has come together this week. For many it will be the first clay court action for several months in a competitive environment, and that can lead to some early upsets, but the picturesque setting should mean fans will arrive at the tournament in as good spirits as most of the contenders.

Most of the First Round has been completed through the first two days at the event, although there are still some opening matches to be played on Tuesday. On the same day, the top Seeds join the Monte Carlo party and this should be another solid week on the Tour for those on the ATP side of the table.

Stuttgart will be the first big event for those on the WTA Tour with that 500 level event being played next week ahead of the Madrid 1000 events to round out the month. All eyes will be sharpening up towards that second Grand Slam of the season with the men's tournament looking pretty wide open and Iga Swiatek still being the player to beat in the women's event.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The last two times these players have met on the Tour have been huge battles with both Jordan Thompson and Stefanos Tsitsipas working their way to a victory apiece. However, both were played on the hard courts and there feels like a big advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player when it comes to matches on the clay.

Furthering that advantage is this Second Round match being played in Monte Carlo where Stefanos Tsitsipas has really enjoyed his time.

His 22-3 record is one thing, but it should also be noted that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won the title in three of the last four years after returning to the event in 2021. The only exception was a Quarter Final defeat to Taylor Fritz in 2023, but the World Number 8 made up for that by winning the title in 2024 with wins over the likes of Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner on the way.

He was born in Greece and represents that nation, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is clearly very comfortable in Monte Carlo with this being his main home these days. That has been reflected in his level of performance at the event and since 2021, Tsitsipas has dominated most aspects of his tennis when playing at this Masters event.

The serve has been very strong, although the key to the successes that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had is the returning numbers with 37% of return games ending in a break of serve in his favour. Numbers on both the serve and return move even more in his favour when only considering matches against players Ranked lower than him and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be seen as a strong favourite, even in his first match back on the clay courts.

A couple of disappointing efforts in Indian Wells and Miami may have knocked the confidence, but being back on the red dirt will really help Stefanos Tsitsipas.

His opponent has come through a First Round match, so is adjusted to the conditions, but you have to consider Jordan Thompson as a pretty poor clay courter. The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston last week, and he had lost sixteen of seventeen clay court matches played on European soil before his First Round win.

Jordan Thompson can take confidence from that win, but his numbers have been really poor on the surface and going up against someone as comfortable on this surface as Stefanos Tsitsipas makes it hard to believe the former can be competitive.

The serve is a big weapon for Thompson on most surfaces, but that is not the case on the clay where patience is as important as power. Ultimately his return has also suffered with opponents capable of pushing him around the court and this may be a rare match against Stefanos Tsitsipas where the World Number 38 is unable to challenge the top ten player as he would like.

It is a big spread for a first match on the surface, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is capable of covering in surroundings where he has always felt right at home.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 68-51, + 13.08 Units (157 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 14th)

Wow, that was some day...

The last three weeks have been really frustrating, but I don't think any of the previous days have been as irritating as the last one.

I've lost count of the number of tie-breakers that have inched the other way this week, and those really hurt on Thursday.

Karen Khachanov won more points during the first set against Andrey Rublev, but lost a tie-breaker and was not able to take advantage of an early break in the second set.

Let's be honest- if Novak Djokovic plays that match with Lorenzo Musetti later this month, I think he wins well. He had Set Points at 5-2 and 5-3 in the first set and, even though he eventually won that set, Novak Djokovic was not able to regain the dominance he had in the match at that point and lost in a tight three setter.

But the worst of the misfortunes was saved for the last match of the day.

Alexander Zverev served for the match in the second and in the third set and also had a Match Point on serve in the final set tie-breaker.

I'd have been disappointed to have gone 2-1, but to have a 0-3 day is a bitter blow.

So it makes Friday pretty important- after the early positives for this season, I am having a look at what is going wrong at the moment. My feeling is that the majority of selections have fallen down due to bad luck rather than a bad look, but I am keeping a tight leash on the Tennis Picks and Friday's Quarter Final action will be important to get back to winning ways in what is likely going to be a tournament ending in a negative number.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 5-9, - 9.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 32.20% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 13th)

While I will admit that I have not had the time to write out my reasoning for the Tennis Picks this week, I have been putting in the research to see if the selections are within the parameters set.

Three more games from Diego Schwartzman would have made it a very good day, but he was not able to finish his match with Jannik Sinner and I have had to settle for a 3-2 return.

On Thursday we are into the Third Round at the Masters event and all eight matches are scheduled to be played and conditions should be warming up through to the end of the weekend. I do want to see my returns warming up too after a poor start to the tournament and there is still some work to do in order to see that improvement.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 5-6, - 3.66 Units (22 Units Staked, - 16.64% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 12th)

It was a mixed day at the Monte Carlo Masters, but the meat of the tournament will be played in the next couple of days and I am looking for a real upturn in returns.

I have not been very happy with the first two days for the Tennis Picks, although I do think there have been fewer 'bad selections' compared with those that had chances to get into a winning position. My feeling is that a slight improvement in the fortune at key moments will swing things back around in a positive direction and I will be looking for some of that on Wednesday.

The update for the season totals will be added to this thread on Wednesday morning, but the late creation of some of the markets means I will place my selections for the day below beforehand.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka @ 2.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 2-4, - 4.52 Units (12 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Tennis 2023: + 12.21 Units (432 Units Staked, + 2.83% Yield)

March 2023: - 1.73 Units (189 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

February 2023: + 0.26 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.44% Yield)

January 2023: + 13.68 Units (146 Units Staked, + 9.37% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 11th)

That was a rough opening to the clay court season.

While I will hold my hands up and say the Cameron Norrie was a poor performance and never stood a chance of recovering, the Sebastian Baez defeat to Jack Draper was incredibly frustrating.

He had three times as many Break Points as Draper, but the latter played every critical point better than the Argentine player. A match that saw Jack Draper win in straight sets also had Sebastian Baez convert 1/12 Break Points compared with Draper's 3/4 record on the day.

That is definitely a selection I would make again if I was given the numbers that they were both going to produce, but the fortune was not on the side of Baez this time.

A tough start, but it is only the start of the week. On Tuesday there is another loaded day in Monte Carlo as the First Round is completed and a few Second Round matches are scheduled to be played with more of the big names in action for the first time on the red dirt in 2023.

I will have a fuller thread on Wednesday, but time constraints means I will only place my selections below with the updated total for the tournament.

MY PICKS: Jiri Lehecka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 10th)

It was a mixed time in the Sunshine Double for the Tennis Picks as the first half of the hard court season came to a close.

Still, I can't really argue with the results through to the start of the clay court season as the build up to the French Open continues. Tournaments have already been played at the opening of the month, but the big names are getting their preparation going when the ATP Tour makes a stop in Monte Carlo for the first Masters on the clay courts ahead of further big stops in Madrid and Rome.

The run up to the French Open will see plenty of tennis being played with both Tours giving players the time to really adjust back onto the clay courts.

It is also a time of the year where some of the players that have enjoyed a lot of success through the first three months of the season may have not have the same level of enjoyment and quality of results on the red dirt. On the other side there are going to be some huge opportunities for the clay court specialists that thrive at this time of the season and I do think it is something to keep in mind when making selections, rather than solely focusing on the season numbers.

I am going to update the season totals in either the Tuesday, or most likely Wednesday, thread at the Mont Carlo Masters.

The opening Tennis Picks from the Monte Carlo Masters and the clay court season overall can be read below.

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: You might not always consider a player out of Great Britain as being a 'clay court specialist', but Cameron Norrie has played some of his best tennis on the surface.

The Monte Carlo Masters can be a tournament filled with surprises, especially early in the event, and it is the only Masters event on the Tour that is not a mandatory one when it comes to the World Rankings. That has sometimes meant it is one that skipped by the top names or one where players do not hang around for too long, but Cameron Norrie may feel he is ready to have a deep run following an early exit in his last appearance in the beautiful surroundings.

Cameron Norrie did not stay in Europe and the Middle East between the Australian Open and the hard court Masters events in North America, but instead chose to join the Golden Swing in South America. It is a decision that has proven to be a good one for a player that put together a 10-1 record, which included picking up a big title in Rio.

In general he did not face too many top players, but splitting two matches with Carlos Alcaraz will have Cameron Norrie feeling confident ahead of the European clay court season.

It was a less successful time for Francisco Cerundolo who has a 4-4 record on the clay courts in 2023, but this is a player that has grown up on the red dirt. He will feel his return game is superior than Cameron Norrie's, but Francisco Cerundolo is going to have to pick up his serving numbers when entering these Masters tournaments.

The record is disappointing when you think of the kind of level of opponents Francisco Cerundolo was drawn to face in the tournaments played on the Golden Swing. Wins in events held during the summer in 2022 helped the confidence of the Argentinian, but this is a tough opening draw in Monte Carlo and I do think Cameron Norrie can frank the form that saw him edge past Francisco Cerundolo in Lyon last year.

A loss to Daniel Evans at the French Open was a disappointing one for Francisco Cerundolo and I think he is beaten by a British player here.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Jack Draper: I am backing one British player on Monday, but I am opposing another when Jack Draper faces Sebastian Baez in the First Round in Monte Carlo.

This is another match between a Brit and an Argentine player, but this time I am looking for Sebastian Baez to show off his clay court prowess.

I do like Jack Draper and his potential, but he is coming in off an injury and his lack of experience on the red dirt is a problem. Last year we saw Draper play a couple of quality matches at the Madrid Masters, but that is a tournament played in conditions that tend to be some of the faster clay courts in the lead up to the French Open and would have suited the big hitting game that Jack Draper wants to play.

Unfortunately that is not likely to be the case in Monte Carlo and Sebastian Baez did reach the Quarter Final in Estoril last week.

He was well beaten by Casper Ruud as the defending Champion in Estoril, but Sebastian Baez has had plenty of wins on the red dirt and I think he is one of those players that will thrive playing on this surface over the next couple of months.

Sebastian Baez has found a certain level too much to handle on this surface, but he is 22-5 in clay court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 over the last year. The know how on the clay courts have allowed Baez to serve well and really build the pressure on the return and I think he can put that together in winning his opening match at this Masters tournament.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)