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Wednesday 30 June 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2021 (June 30th)

Like many, I have going to be glued to a television screen watching the England vs Germany Last 16 tie at Euro 2020 and that means this is going to be a much shorter post than we have seen in the first two days of the Wimbledon tournament.

I will update any additional Picks on Wednesday when Day 3 is usually the start of the Second Round, but rain in the area makes it feel like there will be plenty of First Round matches that need to be completed too.

It should mean a busy day in this part of SW19, but the weather looks to be improving to get the tournament back on track after the wet start experienced by all.

For those heading to the grounds without Centre, Court One or Court Two tickets, the day should still be full of big names littered on the outside courts and that should mean a really enjoyable day for the fans attending Day 3 of this Grand Slam.


Novak Djokovic-Kevin Anderson over 29.5 games: The 2018 Wimbledon Final saw Novak Djokovic beat Kevin Anderson in straight sets, but in the years since injuries have pushed the latter down the World Rankings.

Both of these players were able to win First Round matches in four sets, but it shows how far Kevin Anderson has fallen over the last couple of years that he has to take on World Number 1 and Wimbledon favourite Novak Djokovic in the Second Round. This is a tough match up for Kevin Anderson at his best, but it feels like Djokovic has the match on his own racquet in this Second Round encounter and it would be a major surprise if the top Seed is not able to work his way through to the Third Round later in the week.

Rain could potentially see the match played under a roof on either Centre Court or Court One, but conditions seem a little drier on Wednesday and that can only benefit Novak Djokovic even more. If this was played under the roof, Kevin Anderson has the kind of serve that could be very difficult to deal with, but the feeling is that Novak Djokovic is going to be too good all around.

This will be the fourth time these two players have met at Wimbledon and it is Novak Djokovic who has won the previous three including in the Final of 2018. However, their most famous meeting may have been the Fourth Round match in 2015 which Kevin Anderson led 2-0 before Djokovic was able to fight back and win in five sets.

The most recent match came on a hard court in January 2020 which was also won by Novak Djokovic and I can't emphasise enough what kind of a shock it would be if Kevin Anderson was able to win this match after the injuries and loss of form he has experienced.

However, it does feel like the layers are expecting a really routine win for Novak Djokovic considering the number of games he is being asked to cover on the handicap and where they have placed the total games line. I am a little surprised by that even if Novak Djokovic is one of the greatest return players of all time and that is largely because Kevin Anderson is a player that can get into rhythm behind his serve and essentially put together enough games to force at least one tie-breaker.

Novak Djokovic did win the opening two sets of the 2018 Final by the same 6/2 scoreline, and he does have a habit of beginning to pick the Anderson serve, but even then Kevin Anderson forced a third set tie-breaker.

The big South African was not broken in his First Round win and he has held 93% of his service games on the grass over the last month. Granted he has not really faced anyone like Novak Djokovic in that time, but I do think Kevin Anderson will be able to serve well enough to at least push the World Number 1 into a couple of longer sets which should put the match well on the way to covering this total games line.


Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 sets v Jiri Vesely: Coming off an upset win is not easy for any player, but Marton Fucsovics may not have felt his victory over Jannik Sinner was as big a surprise as other people may believe it to be. He is a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon and Marton Fucsovics has shown he is more than capable of playing on this surface which will give him confidence.

This is a challenging Second Round match against Jiri Vesely who is another player that has had successes on the grass in the past, although the performances in the build up to Wimbledon have been sub-par to say the least. A comfortable First Round win will be a boost for the confidence, but Vesely will know that he will need to up his game against someone like Marton Fucsovics who has had a consistently better season to date.

Two years ago Jiri Vesely reached the Third Round at Wimbledon after coming through the Qualifiers and that included an upset win over Alexander Zverev. In 2018 Jiri Vesely went one better by reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and those kinds of results will have him very much up for the fight in this Second Round match.

He has a big serve coming from a lefty stance which can be dangerous on the faster surface and Jiri Vesely might feel the pressure is on his opponent. However, he was only holding 82% of his service games prior to the start of Wimbledon, while the Jiri Vesely return was really problematic having won 30% of return points and breaking in just 8% of return games.

I think there is an opportunity to have more success against Marton Fucsovics considering the lack of real bite that the Hungarian will get off his own serve. It can certainly be inconsistent and Marton Fucsovics had been struggling in the preparation tournaments himself, but the win over Jannik Sinner will give him some confidence and his previous levels on the grass courts are certainly good enough to win a match like this one.

The previous head to heads between these players shows how tight the match could become, but I think Marton Fucsovics has played the more consistent tennis of the two over the last few months. That should mean he is more prepared to deal with the really big points and I think Fucsovics is going to be able to come through in either three or four sets against a solid Jiri Vesely in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Kevin Anderson Over 29.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gregoire Barrere - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 6.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Bogdan + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Katie Boulter + 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 17-6, + 18.02 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39.17% Yield)

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