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Saturday 12 June 2021

French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2021- Men's Final (June 13th)

We have a new Women's Grand Slam Champion after Barbora Krejcikova found a way to eventually break down the Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova game after splitting the first two sets.

The second Grand Slam of the season will end and in just over two weeks time the third Slam of the season will begin at Wimbledon, although there is some questions as to how many fans are going to be in attendance.

But before all that, we need to crown a current French Open Men's Champion as one of the Big Three looks to hold off a Next Gen talent searching for a first Slam.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Overcoming the Semi Final hurdle which has thwarted him in his early career is clearly a huge moment for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he might have one or two regrets that he was pushed as hard as he was on Friday. After moving 2-0 ahead in sets, Stefanos Tsitsipas could not quite finish off Alexander Zverev and was forced to play for over three and a half hours to eventually prevail in a fifth set.

As I have said, it is a huge moment for his career and the feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas could open the door for multiple Slam successes the moment he is able to pick up his first one. It is not quite the same level of expectation as it was for Roger Federer almost twenty years ago, but a very strong career could develop for Tsitsipas who is much younger than the Big Three and who looks the stand out player of his generation.

Winning his first Grand Slam title will be a big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas as he goes in against the World Number 1 who spent over four hours on the court to beat Rafael Nadal on Friday in the second Semi Final.

Novak Djokovic will have put in a huge amount of effort to get past the dominant player at the French Open and he has become the only player that has beaten Rafael Nadal twice in Paris. Only two men have ever done that before, but it should be pointed out that neither of those (Robin Soderling and Novak Djokovic) went on to win the French Open, but instead they came up short in the Final each time.

I don't think someone who has won 18 Grand Slam titles in his career will be thinking too much about that, but Novak Djokovic might be underlining his status as the best tennis player of all time. His numbers are comparable to Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal across the board, but Novak Djokovic will become the only one of the three who has won multiple titles at each of the Grand Slam tournaments if he is able to secure the title on Sunday.

Emotionally it is a climb down for Novak Djokovic, but I think that is counterbalanced by the amount of emotional investment Stefanos Tsitsipas will have made to reach the Final himself. The World Number 1 has spent considerably more time on the court than Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open and was also winning a title in the days before this Grand Slam began so there will be some questions of Novak Djokovic, although I think the match up is one that he won't mind.

The serve has really worked well in the conditions in Paris over the last fortnight and I think that is key for Novak Djokovic if he is going to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas. He lost some of his focus in a five set win over the Greek superstar in the French Open Semi Final last season having won the first two sets easily, before Tsitsipas was able to rally and eventually come up short in the decider.

These two also met in Rome last month and it was another tight win for Novak Djokovic that went the distance, but the improved serve in Paris is going to give the top Seed another advantage. Novak Djokovic will be helped by the fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas has perhaps not been returning as well as he would have liked despite reaching the Final and that may have something to do with the slightly quicker conditions on these clay courts compared to the other tournaments that were played in preparation for this Grand Slam.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be concerned if his return game is not at a level he would want and that is because he has to expect to be put under pressure by Novak Djokovic's return. This is arguably the best part of the Djokovic game and he can be considered the best returner of serve that there has ever been.

In their head to heads, Novak Djokovic has broken in 25% of return games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas and the Greek player has only responded in 15% of return games. All three previous clay court matches between these players have been won by Novak Djokovic and in those he has broken the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve in 32% of return games played compared with 18% for the younger player and I do think these numbers will ultimately be something we see on Sunday.

The last two clay court matches have needed all eight sets played before Novak Djokovic has got the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas here at Roland Garros in October 2020 and in Rome in May 2021. However, Novak Djokovic has created an eye-watering 45 break points compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 29 and I do think the World Number 1 is going to be very hard to beat on Sunday with all of his focus going in on winning these Grand Slam titles.

If Novak Djokovic wins on Sunday I really think he is going to have a major shot at winning all four Grand Slams in a single season and at that point it would be almost impossible to suggest there is any other player in history who would surpass him. Even without the calendar Grand Slam, Novak Djokovic can move to within a single Grand Slam of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and I don't think he lets the opportunity slip past him.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is a very good player, but ultimately I think the stronger return game of Novak Djokovic makes the difference between them and he might be able to break down the younger man and pull away for a cover of what looks a big mark on paper.

He would have covered this line in the five set win over Tsitsipas at the French Open last year despite the match going the distance, but this time I expect Novak Djokovic to get the job done in four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 50-43, + 1.70 Units (186 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

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