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Thursday 3 June 2021

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2021 (June 3rd)

The tournament really feels like it is underway at the French Open now with half of the Third Round line up completed on Day 4.

There were some upsets and some players being pushed harder than they would have expected, while it was a relatively frustrating day for my Tennis Picks and especially when players were failing to serve out matches.

It could have been worse, but I can still be a little irritated by what has been a really poor year by the standards set on these pages.

The tournament in Paris has barely gotten underway in reality and I am looking for a big response on Day 5 to get things moving back in a positive direction.


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: It was a pretty dominant First Round win for Novak Djokovic and the World Number 1 is playing with a real motivation to try and make sure he ends his career with more Grand Slams than his two main rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Those three players are likely going to be looked back upon as the top three male players of all time, but for the first time the three of them are in the same half of the draw at a Grand Slam and the stories write themselves if all three keep winning.

Novak Djokovic is expected to do his part in the Second Round despite playing a very competent clay court player in Pablo Cuevas.

He saw off Tennys Sandgren in the First Round and Novak Djokovic had his way in the match and the feeling is that this one won't be much different. The crowds will be in attendance for this match so there will be a different feel for Novak Djokovic, but I think players enjoy playing in a Stadium that has some atmosphere and I am not too concerned with the way this match up may go down.

That is taking nothing away from Pablo Cuevas who beat Lucas Pouille in the First Round without breaking a sweat, but the veteran has had an inconsistent season so far on the clay courts. In general this is the best surface for the Uruguayan, but Cuevas will be the first to admit that he is likely going to need to play at a level that he rarely can sustain these days if he is going to be competitive, let alone well enough to beat someone as strong as Novak Djokovic.

Pablo Cuevas has not really been able to get his teeth into the return games as well as he would have liked on the red dirt, while he is going to be under pressure from the Novak Djokovic return.

His own serve is an effective weapon, but Pablo Cuevas is not going to get a lot of cheap points out of one of the best returners on the Tour and I think that plays a massive part in this match. Big favourites have won matches so far in Paris, but they have not really been able to cover the big spreads, which has been something of a surprise at Roland Garros.

However, I expect Novak Djokovic to be able to really get himself settled into a pretty good rhythm in this one and the feeling is that the World Number 1 can find the breaks of serve needed to cover a big mark. There is a feeling that Novak Djokovic needs to get a bit more out of his own serve to really move into a position to win this Grand Slam, but in the Second Round he should have enough to cover this mark on his way towards the next stage of the French Open.


Roger Federer - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: In recent years Roger Federer has made it clear that he is going to do what is necessary to make sure he is ready to compete at the highest level and be able to win Grand Slams. Unsurprisingly he has long chosen to limit his time on the clay courts where he is a significant underdog to the best red dirt players in the world and that has meant very few competitive matches on the surface.

A decision was made to take part at Roland Garros in 2021, although I think many believe this will be the last time Roger Federer plays in this tournament in Paris. A lack of tennis over the last fifteen months means Federer's decision to play here is largely based on getting some competition back into the legs before heading into more winnable tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open.

Roger Federer benefited from a good First Round draw and duly breezed past Denis Istomin and he may be fortunate to be facing another veteran in the Second Round.

Marin Cilic is a former Grand Slam Champion and beat Roger Federer at the US Open in the Semi Final in 2014 on his way to winning that title. However, Cilic is 0-9 in other matches against the 20 time Grand Slam Champion and the Croatian has lost their sole meeting on clay which is going to play a part in this match.

It might have been different if Marin Cilic had been going into the French Open in good form, but a 4-4 record is anything but inspiring. He did improve that to 5-4 after seeing off Arthur Rinderknech in the First Round in straight sets, but Marin Cilic will be the first to suggest his levels will have to improve if he is going to beat Roger Federer even if the latter has barely played any tournament tennis over the last several months.

The problem for Marin Cilic is that he has been struggling with the return and added to the poor head to head you do have to wonder if he is going to be able to put enough belief into his tennis to upset Roger Federer here. This is not the Roger Federer of a couple of years ago, but his win in the First Round will have been encouraging and I think he can do enough behind the serve to work his way past a player he has gotten used to beating over the years.

Neither player will have many secrets from the other, but it is Roger Federer who I think will be the more likely winner and can come through in three or four sets in this Second Round encounter.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Richard Gasquet: There is a new evening session at Roland Garros thanks to the roof on Philippe-Chatrier and the match up between Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet is worthy of taking place under the lights in the Second Round at Roland Garros.

These two have been linked together since they were young boys and both Nadal and Gasquet have obviously had very strong careers on the Tour. Rafael Nadal has been dominant here at the French Open and is the favourite to win the title again, while Richard Gasquet has perhaps just fallen short of expectations by not winning a Slam even though his career has still been a very good one.

Rafael Nadal might be the favourite, but he has yet to really play his best tennis on the clay courts through 2021 and I do think there are signs that he has perhaps moved past his peak. His numbers are still very strong on this surface in 2021, but they are significantly down on the kind of levels that we have become used to from Nadal and the First Round match against Alexei Popyrin underlined the point.

No one can really deny that the Spaniard was a comfortable winner, but the underlying feeling is that Rafael Nadal perhaps did not win as easily as he may have done twelve months ago. That will be encouraging to his opponents through the remainder of Roland Garros including Richard Gasquet, although the Frenchman has been struggling for consistency following a return from injury.

Richard Gasquet has been a mixed bag on the red dirt over the last couple of months, but his dismantling of compatriot Hugo Gaston in the First Round will have been encouraging for the veteran. It is one thing playing at that level against Gaston and doing the same against Rafael Nadal, but Gasquet has to try and play his game and see whether he can at least give his opponent something to think about.

It is a long shot considering the 1-19 head to head record against Nadal on the professional Tour and their last meeting actually came here at Roland Garros in 2018 and ended in a relatively easy win for the former World Number 1.

This is a big spread for Rafael Nadal to cover, but the feeling is that he can get over the top of it because of the decline we have seen in Richard Gasquet. The key will be looking after his own serve and if Nadal can prevent being broken more than twice I do think he has the numbers against Richard Gasquet to believe he can find enough breaks of serve to cover a big handicap mark and especially on the clay courts.

There should be plenty of fun tennis played and some strong rallies to get the crowd into it (or what crowd are allowed into the Stadium) and I think eventually Rafael Nadal will be able to earn a measure of control of this game and make sure he is a relatively comfortable winner in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Betfred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astra Sharma + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 16-17, - 4.70 Units (66 Units Staked, - 7.12% Yield)

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