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Friday 19 February 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 19-23)

The European competitions have resumed during the week and I am not entirely convinced with UEFA's decision to have teams playing 'home' Legs on neutral fields. Personally I prefer the two Leg approach to the Knock Out Rounds through to the Final rather than the neutral site one Leg tournament we have to deal with last summer, but the Covid-19 pandemic continues to play havoc with the schedule.

The same is likely to happen in the March World Cup Qualifiers which are due to commence, while UEFA also have a big decision to make about the upcoming Euro 2020 tournament. I have no doubt the tournament will be played and completed as they want, but whether all twelve Cities will host and whether fans are going to be allowed in, even in limited numbers, is yet to be clarified.

I do commend any organisation which is trying to keep competitions going at this time through the various sports and so many have proved they can run their events effectively even when people have criticised those events taking place. Unlike some, I absolutely believe Euro 2020 can be played and manage the bubbles efficiently, but I would perhaps limit some of the travelling that is currently scheduled to take place.

Instead of twelve Cities you could use four, but UEFA will likely be breaching contracts and that is a big factor to take into consideration.

While those decisions are coming up, the club football continues and this is still a very busy time of the season with games being played every few days. I will get into the Fantasy Football outlook for GameWeek 25 after running through my thoughts of the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend and the make up fixture to come during the week.


Wolves v Leeds United PickFriday Night Football comes from Molineux this week to open the Premier League latest round of fixtures and both Wolves and Leeds United will feel they can still secure a top half finish this season. European Football is perhaps beyond both considering the lack of consistency that has been shown and this is a difficult fixture to predict.

There have been times where both have looked really good, but they are also never that far away from a poorer showing and the first goal is likely going to be important.

Wolves came from behind to win at Southampton last weekend and did the same when hosting Arsenal, while they did create some decent openings against Leicester City in a goalless draw. The absence of Raul Jimenez has really prevented Wolves turning a few close games into wins and they still lack the consistent threat in the final third without their talismanic centre forward.

However, Nuno Espirito Santo will be pleased by some of the build up play his Wolves team have put together and the manager has to be confident they can create chances against this Leeds United team. Even through some of their better results, Leeds United have a style which leaves them wide open and Wolves have some quality wide players who can use pace and skill to expose those areas.

In saying that, the Leeds United style is also one that will create chances and they showed that off in their 1-3 win at Leicester City recently. They have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in the Premier League, but Leeds United have not kept a clean sheet in any of those and have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.

Leeds United lost 0-1 to Wolves at Elland Road, but they created the better chances on the day. They are playing with some confidence even as results remain inconsistent and I think this is a fixture that is likely to feature at least three goals, especially as Wolves have found some attacking threat in recent games.

Both teams scoring wouldn't be a surprise when involving Leeds United, while neither team is likely to settle for a point as they bid to move up the Premier League standings. If the game gets bogged down it could end up being a tight one, but Leeds United don't seem to allow that to happen too often and I would expect at least three goals to be shared out this evening.


Southampton v Chelsea PickThe Champions League has already resumed, but Chelsea will be playing their Last 16 First Leg against Spanish leaders Atletico Madrid in the coming days. That is a competition that will always be a distraction to players and managers, but Thomas Tuchel can't afford to take his eye off the ball in the Premier League as Chelsea look for a top four finish and a return to the Champions League next season too.

In reality everything you hear about Tuchel suggests he will do anything but focus on the next game on deck and he will be looking to prepare his Chelsea team to the best of ability. Changes are likely to be made as he keeps the squad fresh, but his team look to be responding in the manner the manager will appreciate and the 5 game winning run will give Chelsea real confidence.

I do think Tuchel has been fortunate with the way the fixture list panned out in his first few weeks in charge of Chelsea and he may also be going up against Southampton at the right time.

Injuries have hurt the hosts and confidence has been dented which has seen Southampton lose their last 6 Premier League games including the last 3 in a row at St Mary's. However 2 of those defeats have come in games Southampton have taken the lead and the defensive issues are a problem for Ralph Hasenhuttl that he has yet to resolve.

His team are not completely out of form as they have progressed to the FA Cup Quarter Final through this poor League run, but Southampton have not always been consistent in the final third. Coupled with the defensive worries which has seen Southampton concede at least two goals in 5 of their last 6 games in the Premier League and I think there is every chance that Chelsea can extend their winning run at least one more game.

The Blues have shown an attacking threat in recent games, but they have also been organised defensively and I think that gives them a real edge. Chelsea have also won 5 in a row at St Mary's and I think they are capable of adding another three points here and keeping the pressure on the teams in and around the top four race to stay with them.


Burnley v West Brom PickIf you are being honest you have to say that both West Brom and Sheffield United are almost certainly heading for Championship Football in the 2021/22 season as both have looked cut off at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Sam Allardyce has plenty of experience to pull teams out of trouble in the Premier League, but he has not had the kind of impact West Brom have wanted and this is a team struggling for results. 2 points from a possible 18 since beating Wolves in the Midlands derby suggests there isn't the confidence in the squad to avoid the drop and West Brom are continuing to concede far too many goals.

At least this weekend they are not facing a top attacking unit and West Brom did restrict Manchester United to a single strike last week.

However Burnley have created a lot of chances in their recent 1-1 home draws against Brighton and Fulham at Turf Moor and only some poor finishing has let them down. They have not been helped by gifting leads to both of those visitors, but Burnley have not offered out a lot of chances to the relegation rivals they have faced and Sean Dyche will have Ben Mee back for this one too.

With the goals that West Brom are conceding I do think Burnley deserve the edge in this match and I think they will find a way to the maximum points. It will be close and another draw can't be ruled out, but that is no good to West Brom and I feel they may have to take the risks which will open spaces for Burnley who have been creating enough to produce one more goal than they concede.


Liverpool v Everton PickIn recent years the Merseyside derby has become a pattern depending on where the game is played- those at Goodison Park have tended to finish up as draws, while Liverpool have dominated the victories at Anfield and the feeling is that the midweek results have once again given Liverpool the momentum to take into the latest derby.

While Liverpool were bouncing back from their latest Premier League setback with a win over Leipzig in the Champions League, Everton have lost back to back home games against Fulham and Manchester City. They played much better in the second of those games than the first, but Everton will have had some confidence dented.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could return and that is a boost for Everton, while they have been better away from home than at Goodison Park. In fact Everton are unbeaten in 7 away games in the Premier League and they have scored at least twice in 5 of those fixtures so they won't be worried about taking on a Liverpool backline which is still leaking chances.

At the same time Everton have not looked that convincing at the back themselves and there are signs Liverpool are returning to form in the final third. They created chances against Leicester City and perhaps should have gotten a lot more out of that game than they eventually did, while Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah both scored during the week to give themselves some belief.

Goals at Anfield have not been easy to come by, but Liverpool will feel they can get after an Everton team which has conceded three or more goals in 3 of their last 4 overall. Everton haven't had a clean sheet in the Premier League since Boxing Day and this feels like a derby that could see both teams hitting the back of the net with the strengths being in the final third compared with the defensive third.

Only 3 of the last 9 Merseyside derby games have finished with at least three goals shared out, but that includes the last Premier League game at Anfield which ended 5-2 in favour of the home team. This feels like a game in which both teams will have to use attack as the best form of defence and I think they are likely to be involved in a higher-scoring derby than we are used to seeing.


Fulham v Sheffield United PickTwo clubs inside the bottom three of the Premier League meeting in late February is clearly going to be a very important fixture and that is the case for Fulham and Sheffield United.

However, I do think this game should mean more to Fulham because they have a much more realistic path to get themselves out of relegation trouble compared with Sheffield United. That doesn't mean the visitors will roll over for Fulham, but the feeling is that even a win for The Blades will only be postponing what looks like an inevitable relegation and so the three points are much crucial to Scott Parker's team.

If Fulham can win they will move to within 3 points of safety having earned 4 points over the last week, while they also hold the goal difference edge over Newcastle United. The victory will give this Fulham team a huge jolt of confidence, but they have not played as well at home as they have away from Craven Cottage and you can't ignore the fact that Fulham are the lowest home scorers in the Division.

At the same time Sheffield United are the only club in the Premier League that have lost at least 10 away League games this season. The Blades have not been sharp enough in the final third having scored just 6 away goals this season and defensively they are liable to a mistake or two which will give teams a chance.

Fulham have been playing better defensively, but this is a team who have been lacking goals. They have been inconsistent in the final third all season, but there have been one or two signs they are finding their feet and Fulham may have a very slight edge in the fixture.

It won't be easy for either team and there will be some tense moments, while a mistake could prove to be the difference on the day. The home team have just shown a little more at both ends of the pitch compared with Sheffield United and I do think Fulham have an opportunity for a big three points to keep the momentum going before fixtures look to be getting a little tougher.

You can't really rule out the draw with confidence, but Sheffield United have not been as solid as their results may indicate and were fortunate not to be beaten by West Brom at home. Fulham are playing a little better than the two teams that are below them in the Premier League table and I think they earn a narrow victory in this game.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur PickThe extra days off should really favour West Ham United in this Premier League fixture and they have to take advantage of that if they are going to continue their unexpected challenge for Champions League Football next season.

It is not just the extra days of recovery, but the form has been decent too and that has to be encouragement to David Moyes and his players.

Michail Antonio's absence would be a blow, but West Ham United have continued to create chances without him and I think they are a dangerous team as long as they have belief in their own game. That was not the case in their home defeat to Liverpool last month, but you have to think the players will have learned from that and they should not be in awe of a Tottenham Hotspur team that have been struggling for form.

A big win in the First Leg of the Europa League Last 32 means there is little pressure on the Second Leg and Jose Mourinho can turn his attention to the Premier League. The position looks precarious, but Tottenham Hotspur could be right back in the top four mix with a win at the London Stadium and they have won their last 4 away games at West Ham United.

Tottenham Hotspur have struggled away from home in the Premier League in recent weeks with a single win in their last 7 on their travels. They should have a fresh Harry Kane ready to go, but Tottenham Hotspur will have to be better defensively if they are going to finish in the Champions League spots, which has to be the minimum aim for Jose Mourinho at the end of this season.

Both teams should be strong in the final third with the recent performances they have produced, but neither has looked convincing at the back.

Games between these rivals have tended to be high-scoring and that includes the 3-3 draw at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this season. I have also noted that there are plenty of recent games where the losing team has made late comebacks which have either been completed or come up a little short so neither will feel comfortable until the final whistle is blown and the points are secured.

In 2 of the last 3 Premier League games here, West Ham United have fallen 0-3 down and then almost fully recovered in 2-3 defeats. David Moyes will want a stronger start in this one though, but I do think goals are likely to be the outcome between these teams with at least three expected on Sunday lunchtime.


Aston Villa v Leicester City PickThis is really a fixture that could develop in a couple of different ways and I am of the feeling that an early goal could open things up.

Neither Aston Villa nor Leicester City will want to give too much away as they both look for a surprising spot in the top four at the end of this season, but Dean Smith's men do have a few more days to rest and prepare for this one. While Leicester City have played in Europe on Thursday, Aston Villa have not been in action since last Saturday evening and they should be ready to go.

They are facing a Leicester City team with some key injuries in the back, but Aston Villa will also be well aware of how good Leicester City have been away from home. Brendan Rodgers will set his team up to counter the spaces Aston Villa do leave and the injury to Matty Cash at right back will be a disruption for the hosts.

Aston Villa have been giving up some massive opportunities of late and this Leicester City team have a very good front line that should be more clinical than the likes of Southampton and Brighton have been. The goalkeeper has been important, but Aston Villa will need to get on the front foot in this one with attack being the best form of defence at times and I do think this will be a decent fixture.

3 of the last 5 between these clubs have finished up with at least three goals shared out and I do think an early goal opens this fixture up.

Both teams should be looking for the maximum points and that should keep the intensity up, but much will depend on a first half goal to prevent the teams from perhaps becoming more and more cautious as they begin to fear defeat than think about the positives of a victory.


Arsenal v Manchester City PickThe Champions League resumes during the week and Manchester City's focus will turn to that shortly, but Pep Guardiola has made it clear to his players to ignore the schedule and play matches as they come. He will rotate his first eleven to keep players fresh as Manchester City remain in contention for all four competitions they entered back in August and Manchester City are playing with real confidence.

A 17th win in a row in all competitions is keeping the momentum going and Manchester City have won 10 away games in succession. They have scored at least two goals in their last 9 and many of those fixtures have ended in comfortable wins for Manchester City with the strong defence now being backed up by a motivated forward line.

They will feel they can hurt this Arsenal team who have been conceding goals and who have been giving up some chances even when going through a period of better results. Mikel Arteta will be pleased by the progress he is seeing, but his Arsenal team are still lacking consistency and they have not had much success against this Manchester City team.

The last 5 at the Emirates Stadium have not only ended in defeats, but defeats by two or more goal margins. That includes a thumping defeat in the League Cup Quarter Final and Arsenal have also allowed some big chances to Manchester United in a recent goalless draw here.

Ultimately they are now taking on the best team in England and a team that looks to have overcome any injuries that have affected them. This weekend it looks like Manchester City have a much stronger squad all around with the returns of Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan expected and I simply don't think Arsenal will be able to stay with their visitors.

Having had one day less than Manchester City to prepare and travelling back from Italy are other factors going against Arsenal and I think the away team produce an 11th win in a row away from the Etihad Stadium. Like the previous 9, I think Manchester City will win by a good margin too if showing the clinical finishing they have been of late.


Manchester United v Newcastle United PickThe big win in Italy on Thursday afternoon has set Manchester United up for a comfortable passage to the Last 16 of the Europa League and the hope will be that the result can spark the Premier League form.

A poor 1-1 draw at West Brom last weekend has ended any real hopes of challenging Manchester City for the title, but Manchester United cannot expect to coast into the top four. They have to pick up their form and there will be some pressure on them depending on how their top four rivals have performed in earlier games played this weekend.

Even that won't be an excuse for Manchester United when they host a slumping Newcastle United team. Steve Bruce's men are edging closer and closer towards the bottom three with 7 losses in their last 9 Premier League games, but recent wins at Everton and Southampton have just about kept The Magpies clear of the relegation zone.

However the gap may be as close as 3 points if Fulham have beaten Sheffield United earlier this weekend and that will put pressure on Newcastle United. Despite the bid to play improved attacking football, Steve Bruce's men are struggling in the final third and the injury to Callum Wilson does not help at all.

They have not scored in 5 of their last 6 away games and Manchester United, for all their mistakes at the back, have not given up a huge amount of chances in recent games. It feels like Manchester United will be punished whenever they make mistakes at the moment, but their visitors are without their best striker and I would expect a relatively comfortable evening for the hosts.

Manchester United should have enough attacking threat to break down this Newcastle United team that is likely without Federico Fernandez and I think they can win with what has been a rare clean sheet of late.


Brighton v Crystal Palace PickThe M23 derby is played on Monday Night Football this week and Brighton look plenty short to win the game at odds on.

They are playing well and Brighton are unbeaten in 6 Premier League games, but last weekend was further evidence of the issues that have dragged them into the relegation battle. Namely they don't score enough goals despite the really good chances they are able to create and I imagine purchasing a striker will be a big request Graham Potter has of the board in the summer.

His team are still churning out results without a consistency in the final third and that is because Brighton have found a really good balance defensively. It has seen them restricting the threat teams are posing against them and Brighton have been able to edge away from the bottom three.

A win on Monday will see them take a big step towards maintaining their Premier League status for another season and Brighton have to be confident they can restrict a Crystal Palace team missing Wilfred Zaha. Without that magic from their best player, Crystal Palace have looked short of ideas and confidence and it has seen them lose back to back games without scoring a goal.

Any derby can produce some strange results though when the form guide may be pointing in one direction, while Crystal Palace did win here last season and were minutes away from beating Brighton at home earlier this season. Roy Hodgson has had plenty of time to work with the players he has available and, despite a long injury list, he will be looking for a much better performance than has been seen in the last 2 League games.

At odds on it is hard to back Brighton, but Crystal Palace can't be trusted without Wilfred Zaha either. Both defences will feel they can get on top of what has been inconsistent attacks to say the least and I would not be surprised if one of these teams fails to score.

Crystal Palace have not scored in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions, while Brighton have conceded once in their last 6 Premier League games. During the same run, The Seagulls have only scored 4 goals themselves and have had goalless draws with the likes of Fulham, Newcastle United and Burnley here already this season and so the feeling is we are going to see at least one clean sheet on the scoreboard at the end of this one.


Leeds United v Southampton PickThe European Football will take most of the headlines during the week, but there are games to be made up in the Premier League and Leeds United and Southampton have found a slot for one of the fixtures they have to complete.

Both teams were involved early this past weekend so they should have had time to prepare, although both Leeds United and Southampton are stretched through injury. It means there are unlikely to be wholesale changes as both clubs look to earn the points to confirm Premier League Football for another season as soon as possible.

That might sound like weak ambitions, but I think it would be the makings of a strong season for a newly promoted club and another who have been involved in too many relegation battles in recent years. Both will have more convincing aims of trying to finish in the top half of the table, while Southampton have the bonus of a FA Cup Quarter Final to be played next month.

Neither team has shown much consistency of late, but Leeds United look to have the edge being at home and with more wins over the last few weeks. The 1-1 draw for Southampton against Chelsea snapped a 6 game losing run in the Premier League and it should be noted that Leeds United look to be the more creative of the two taking part in this one.

You can't really rely on Leeds United to produce a big defensive effort, but they controlled Wolves in the 1-0 defeat on Friday and it was only a ridiculously poor piece of luck which cost them a result. In the last home game Leeds United kept a clean sheet against Crystal Palace too and I do lean towards them earning the victory here.

It won't be easy as Southampton have been a team that can be very good on their day and have attacking players that can cause problems, but containing Leeds United may be beyond them.

Both teams have had inconsistent results over the last month, but the feeling is that Leeds United have been creating more chances than their visitors. With a little more composure in the final third, I think Leeds United will edge to the three points.

MY PICKS: Wolves-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool-Everton Over 2.5 Goals
Fulham - 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 25
It was a solid week for the Fantasy Football team in GW24 with almost 100 points earned and that is without using a Chip.

As I am writing this most in the Community are still waiting to see which fixtures are going to be placed in GameWeek 26 which looks like being the biggest Double GameWeek remaining this season. The comments made by Pep Guardiola before the match against Everton suggests Manchester City will be playing Wolves in GW26 as an addition to the home match against West Ham United, while they will then be facing Southampton the following week.

However it may mean having to wait until close to the GW25 deadline, which is Friday evening, before we get an idea as to how the March calendar is going to look.

That is an issue for my team with the idea that the Bench Boost Chip is best to be employed in DGW26 and with two free transfers to use this week. Both Leeds United and Southampton are on a double this week so I don't really want to touch those assets, but I do have to make use of one and then keep two for the following week when I can shape my squad to cover as many Doubles as possible.

It is causing problems and I am wondering whether Everton and Southampton will be the teams with most DGWs remaining this season if their match scheduled for Monday 1st March is not moved/swapped with another earlier that weekend. If it isn't, they won't be involved in a DGW in 26, but will have at least two matches each that need to be re-scheduled and that is after the Southampton match at Manchester City is already likely to be played in GW27.

By the time most read this we should have a release of the fixtures for GW26, but I would not be surprised if Aston Villa vs Everton is set for a DGW27.

I still believe there will be twelve teams on a DGW, but the irritation would be if Southampton are not one of those teams. It would mean I have as many as six players missing the double, which loses some of the impact of the Bench Boost. That means I will be making my Free Transfer this week as late as possible to the Friday 6:30pm deadline, although I won't be touching the four players in the squad that are scheduled to play twice this week (Che Adams seemingly has been dropped from the starting eleven for Southampton which is a blow, but I will keep him in as he may get at least one full game and a sub appearance in the other).

The most likely transfer will involve Aaron Cresswell as someone who is guaranteed to be playing only one fixture in DGW26 and that coming at Manchester City no less. A bigger decision may be which teams to target to replace him, but much will depend on the fixtures released for March which I am hopeful will be out before the deadline as I have mentioned before.

I will update my team on Twitter around the deadline.

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