The Second Round did not go as planned for the Tennis Picks, but I have to be a little disappointed with the mix of poor luck and poor judgement I displayed across the last two days.
There is plenty of time to turn the tournament back around and that begins with the start of the Third Round, while I am pretty happy to see the majority of the Outright Picks making it through to this stage of the tournament.
Again, there is a long way to go, but I am hoping those selected can earn their spots in the business end of the tournament beginning on Day 5.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The Australian Open is going to begin to put together the list for those players who will be making it through to the second week of the first Grand Slam of the season. In the first week it is all about managing your way through the draw without expending too much energy and to that point Alexander Zverev has been successful with two very strong wins in the books after dropping the opening set of the tournament.
His performances since that dropped set have been strong and Alexander Zverev has to be playing with some confidence in decent conditions for a player with the kind of serve he has. Backing that up has not been an issue and Alexander Zverev has shown he has some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve which would make him a threat to win a maiden Grand Slam having reached the Final of the US Open in September.
The German will be the first to admit he will need to take another step upwards in his level of performance if he is going to beat Adrian Mannarino- the latter has won both matches this week in dominant fashion and Adrian Mannarino is a solid hard courter which makes him a threat in this match.
However in saying all that, Adrian Mannarino did not play that well in two events prior to the Australian Open and beating players outside of the top 40 in the World Rankings is solid form, but still needing more to take on a top tenner who is amongst the favourites to win the Australian Open.
The head to head doesn't make good reading for Adrian Mannarino either having lost all five previous matches against Alexander Zverev including a one-sided defeat at the US Open after taking the first set on the tie-breaker. They did meet two more times after the US Open in 2020 and both times Mannarino was able to take a set, but it does have to be said that Alexander Zverev has largely controlled the tempo of matches between the pair and in a best of five setting that should be the case the longer it goes.
In the four previous hard court matches, Alexander Zverev has held 87% of his service games played compared with Adrian Mannarino's 71% mark and the former has already created more break points in all of those matches. When they met at the US Open last September, Alexander Zverev was just a little more clinical when the chances came his way and on the faster courts that have been put in place in Melbourne I do think the top tenner will have too much for Mannarino.
It won't be a rollover for sure, but Alexander Zverev has looked good in the tournament so far and can win and cover in this Third Round match.
Milos Raonic - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Spending a long time on the courts in the early Rounds of any Grand Slam event is a difficult position to be in, but Marton Fucsovics has shown tremendous resolve to win a couple of five setters already in Melbourne. In the Second Round the Hungarian was able to hold off the Stan Wawrinka rally when beating the former Champion, although it does mean that Marton Fucsovics has already spent over eight hours on court to win two matches.
His opponent in the Third Round has only needed half that time to win his two matches and Milos Raonic's serve is proving to be a devastating weapon on the Melbourne hard courts. The expectation is that this match will provide a more difficult test for the Canadian, but Milos Raonic has to be very happy with his level and he can keep Fucsovics under immense pressure if he is serving as well as he has been this week.
Physical exertions will feel much worse if Marton Fucsovics is not able to get into the Milos Raonic service games and that can also build the mental pressure when it comes to holding your own serve.
No one will confuse Raonic with one of the top returners on the Tour, but he has created sixteen break points in both matches played this week and is winning over 40% of return points played. As impressive as the Marton Fucsovics run has been, he has been holding less than 80% of the service games played in the Australian Open and his return game is going to be tested by Milos Raonic who has held 98% of service games played so far in 2021.
The two previous matches between these two players have come on the grass courts and Milos Raonic has won both against Marton Fucsovics. In those matches he has won 40% of the return points played, but also won 72% of the points played on his own serve and you do have to think he is playing well enough here in Australia to get the better of Fucsovics again.
This is a big spread, but at some point you would not be completely surprised if some physical fatigue sees Marton Fucsovics break down against the big hitting of Milos Raonic. I hate backing a limited returner like Raonic to earn the break points to cover this mark, but the Marton Fucsovics serve may offer up more chances and I think the higher Ranked player is able to work his way through to what is likely to be a big Fourth Round match against the World Number 1.
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Playing in a Grand Slam is tough enough, but playing against a compatriot can be really tricky and that is what both Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime are facing in the Third Round. While you have to learn on the job when facing opponents you don't know so well, playing against a compatriot means there are no secrets and both of these young Canadians are going to be well aware of how dangerous the other can be.
There is so much potential behind both Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime and it would be a surprise if both are not Grand Slam Champions as they develop on the Tour. At this moment in time you would feel that both are not quite ready, but the confidence will have been built off the back of the strong wins already produced in Melbourne.
To that extent you have to feel that Felix Auger-Aliassime is the more confident of the two players having reached the Final of a warm up event last week and his two wins this week have been very, very comfortable. However, it would be foolhardy to not mention the fact that both have come against players Ranked outside the top 100 and this is a huge step up in level.
Even the wins put together last week were not against the top players on the Tour and Auger-Aliassime did not beat anyone from inside the top 50 of the World Rankings. His sole match against one of those opponents saw him dismantled by Daniel Evans and this young Canadian is only 15-23 in hard court matches against top 50 Ranked players in his career.
Last season in particular saw Felix Auger-Aliassime struggle against the top 50 players he met on the hard courts and his numbers were not good enough. Holding 72% of service games and only breaking in 14% of return games is an issue and certainly will give Denis Shapovalov some confidence.
An easy Second Round win made up for the battle Shapovalov had to negotiate in the First Round against Jannik Sinner, but that win does look a good one even if the lefty was a little fortunate on the day having given up double the amount of break points than he earned.
Denis Shapovalov does need to improve his return game if he is going to take the next step in his development, but he does look further along the development road than his compatriot. His numbers against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts underline that point with a superior hold and break percentage, while the head to head also favours Shapovalov.
These two players have met four times on the pro Tour and it is Denis Shapovalov who leads 3-1, while that become a 3-0 record when only considering their hard court matches. Two of those matches have been at the US Open and the last saw Denis Shapovalov beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets, although that came in 2019 and the latter has developed since then.
It should be a much more competitive match, but I do think Shapovalov is the deserving favourite and I think he is still slightly superior than the improving Felix Auger-Aliassime and will come through this match in three or four sets.
Dominic Thiem-Nick Kyrgios over 36.5 games: Anyone who doesn't know the kind of impact sports fans can have on matches in any sporting event inside the Stadiums just needs to watch the Second Round match between Nick Krygios and Ugo Humbert. In a sanitised and quiet environment it is hard to imagine Kyrgios would have found the motivation to turn the match around from match point down and I think the Australian even suggested as much in his post-match presser.
He has made enough noise about loving playing on the John Cain Arena that Nick Kyrgios has been placed back on the court for the Night Session.
The atmosphere is unlikely to be any less vocal than it was in the Second Round and Nick Kyrgios will know he needs all the support he can get as he bids to beat one of the top players in the world. Dominic Thiem may not be the strongest on the hard courts, but runs to the Australian Open Final and following that up by winning the US Open means he is a big favourite to beat the home player.
You can't really argue against that with Dominic Thiem having played plenty of tennis to keep his rhythm going and being involved in big matches while Kyrgios decided he would rather not travel during a global pandemic. You can't blame the Australian, but it does mean that it will be a challenge to try and reach the level that his opponent will be able to rely on in this tough Third Round match.
The run through to the Third Round has been a lot more simple for Dominic Thiem than it has been for Nick Kyrgios and the former has the kind of serve that will make it difficult for a limited returner like the Australian to expect to have a lot of success. However Kyrgios is someone who is inspired to face some of the better players on the Tour and he does have a 16-19 record against top 10 players when meeting them on the hard courts.
That is impressive, but Nick Kyrgios has lost all seven in that spot when those matches have come in Grand Slam matches and that is 0-4 at the Australian Open. It is the return which has let Nick Kyrgios down, but he has held 86% of the service games played against those top tenners here and the last three defeats have all come in matches where Kyrgios has taken at least one set.
Even though he is a US Open Champion, I do have to say that Dominic Thiem doesn't have the best returning numbers on the hard courts and so it is entirely possible that Nick Kyrgios will be inspired enough to take a set off of him here. Doing more than would be a surprise though and I think Dominic Thiem will be able to handle the crowd even when it does become a little difficult during this match.
Both players will be looking to get the serve going and it could see the match cover the total games line in what I expect to be at least a four set match. Tie-breakers will likely be in play as long as Nick Kyrgios has recovered from his Second Round exploits and can stay mentally checked in when things are hard for a player that has played little competitive tennis over the last several months.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Much is being made of the speed of the courts at Melbourne Park in 2021 and Novak Djokovic is even making the point that he needs to make some adjustments having become accustomed to a certain speed when winning this Grand Slam eight times. Even with the chances, Djokovic has looked pretty good in the first two Rounds, although he will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more clinical when it comes to the break points being played to just ease the nature of matches.
He did need over three hours on the court to see off Frances Tiafoe, but the main problem for Novak Djokovic that day was allowing his young American opponent to hang around. The numbers were largely skewed in favour of the World Number 1, but he couldn't quite pull away from Tiafoe until the end of the match, while dropping a set won't be a massive concern.
Novak Djokovic goes up against another young American in the Third Round when he gets set to face Taylor Fritz in the night session at the Australian Open. The latter has come through a gruelling Second Round match against compatriot Reilly Opelka and Taylor Fritz has spent just under eight hours on the court already which is tough with the limited preparation for the first Grand Slam of the season in mind.
A lot of people have high hopes for Fritz and he is experienced enough to have faced the likes of Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem in Grand Slam events, while also facing Rafael Nadal in another hard court tournament. This isn't the first time he will face Djokovic, but it is the first time these two will be meeting on this surface as the two previous matches have been won by the World Number 1 on the clay courts.
Much will depend on how much recovery Taylor Fritz has been able to put into his legs after the wins in the first two matches at Melbourne Park. He will need to serve well against arguably one of the best returners of all time and anything less will mean pressure on Taylor Fritz considering his own returning struggles when facing the very best players on this surface.
He may be encouraged by seeing the way Novak Djokovic dropped serve against another limited returner in Frances Tiafoe, but the Serb only faced three break points in the entire match and happened to drop serve twice. You have to think the two matches on the Rod Laver Arena will give Novak Djokovic a better way to deal with the conditions now and his first match came in the night session when he was much more dominant than the day match against Tiafoe.
Taylor Fritz has given up at least ten break points in both matches played so far in the tournament, and it has to be a worry that Reilly Opelka was able to create thirteen break opportunities. The latter got tight when the match was ready to be won, but Novak Djokovic is not expected to do that and I think he can cover this big mark as he wears down Fritz and puts the breaks of serve together.
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Fiona Ferro: Winning a Grand Slam is a fantastic achievement for any player and Iga Swiatek has long looked like a player that would be capable of winning plenty of the majors in the years ahead. Putting the French Open on the CV is a great start for the 19 year old and this is a player that looks like she has the capability to be a huge success on any surface.
In the last couple of years Iga Swiatek has produced some strong numbers on the hard courts, although she looks like she is still room to develop further. The comfortable wins in the last two Rounds at the Australian Open shows this is a player who is producing strong, confident tennis and the serve has set up Swiatek to go on the offensive when it comes to return numbers.
The length of the run that Iga Swiatek can have in this tournament will be dependent on the serve but she has shown she can produce this kind of level for long enough to put plenty of wins on the board on the hard courts. It certainly looks like being capable of getting the better of Fiona Ferro in this Third Round match, although the Frenchwoman is coming in off an upset in the Second Round against Elena Rybakina.
It was a solid win, but Ferro was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Rybakina and this is a completely different kind of challenge. Where the Russian will look to hit through with power and dictate the play, Iga Swiatek is a capable defender, a strong mover and someone who will use variations where she can to swing the points back in her favour.
So far in her career, it has looked like Fiona Ferro is going to be a better clay court player than a hard court one and so you do have to wonder if she will appreciate the court speed as much as someone with an all-court ability like her Polish opponent.
Her two wins in this tournament have to be respected, but I do think Iga Swiatek is going to be the stronger returner of the two players. She also looks like she holds a more consistent serve and it end up seeing her through to the Fourth Round with a good looking win in this one.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem-Nick Kyrgios Over 35.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 20-23, - 11.28 Units (86 Units Staked, - 13.12% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment