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Tuesday 2 February 2021

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 2-4)

The congested nature of the 2020/21 season is being felt the most at this time of the campaign with games being played every few days until the end of February.

There will be more time for rest and recovery as we enter March and April, at least for the majority of the Premier League, but for now every team is in the same boat and managers are having to rotate players. That is not an ideal situation for us Fantasy Premier League players as we try and second guess what kind of teams will be selected, while also planning to get the very best out of our teams.

More on that below, but first my thoughts on the latest round of Premier League games to be played from Tuesday through Thursday. The latest Fantasy deadline comes on Tuesday afternoon so be aware of that.


Sheffield United v West Brom Pick: The term 'relegation six pointer' might be overused, but it is hard to think of Sheffield United versus West Brom as anything else.

The two teams currently prop up the rest of the Premier League and both Chris Wilder and Sam Allardyce can't afford to drop any points in this fixture. It should mean an attacking intent from both knowing a point doesn't really do anything for them long-term and that should produce a decent game of football.

Neither manager can really rely on the defence to keep a clean sheet and so it will be about scoring goals to win this game. When these teams met at The Hawthorns it was a remarkable game in which some huge chances were missed and you have to remain a little concerned by the lack of firepower we have sometimes seen from Sheffield United and West Brom.

However there have been some positive signs from both in recent weeks, at least when it comes to getting forward and creating chances. The last couple of League games at Bramall Lane have seen Sheffield United looking pretty threatening going forward, although the continued defensive vulnerabilities have prevented The Blades cutting a stronger path up the League table.

It is those vulnerabilities that Sam Allardyce will be targeting to exploit and his West Brom team have had to score a fair few goals to make up for their own defensive issues. West Brom have scored at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games in all competitions, but they have only won once in that time and needed three goals to win at Wolves.

The lack of wins comes down to the fact that West Brom have conceded at least twice in their last 7 games in all competitions including in their last 6 Premier League games.

Chances have been created against West Brom at an alarming rate, but in the more winnable games in that run The Baggies have threatened at the other end. That is going to be key here and I do think the layers may be underestimating the chance of seeing goals.

Neither team can allow the game to drift and I expect plenty of effort from both, but the defensive problems for both clubs will likely see chances created.

4 of the last 5 between these clubs at Bramall Lane have ended with at least three goals shared out, while the game earlier this season saw a massive amount of chances created by both. Better finishing will be important, but I also expect this game to be chased to the final minute and it should leave spaces to exploit.


Wolves v Arsenal Pick: Things have changed massively for both Wolves and Arsenal since they met at the Emirates Stadium at the end of November in a game that Wolves won 1-2.

That was the fourth win in 7 games for Wolves in the Premier League, while it was a result in the middle of Arsenal's 7 game run without a League win during which time they lost 5 times.

Back then Nuno Espirito Santo would have been comfortable and Mikel Arteta was under immense pressure, but it was also the fixture in which Raul Jimenez suffered a serious injury. The fractured skull has meant Wolves have been without their talisman number nine, and the form in the Premier League has been really poor since then.

Wolves have won 1 of their last 11 Premier League games since the win in North London and they have struggled for goals. Defensively they can still be very stubborn, but Wolves haven't even been able to rely on that side of their game in recent weeks with the manager changing a system and dealing with plenty of other injuries outside of Jimenez.

The side have conceded five goals in their last 2 Premier League games at home and now face an Arsenal team which has been improving. The form has been turned out just when it felt like Arteta was about to be relieved of his role as manager of the club and Arsenal have only conceded two goals in 7 Premier League games.

Arsenal have won 3 away League games in a row for the first time since October 2018 and this is a team playing with a decent balance as the young players being called upon have thrived.

Injuries are an issue for Arsenal too with key players like Kieran Tierney, Bukayo Saka and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all potentially missing. So far the side have still managed to keep the points ticking over, but you do have to wonder if Arsenal create enough chances to keep getting the better of games.

With the recent form of both clubs, I would not be surprised if one of the teams fail to find the net. However the layers feel the same and the better approach may be looking for this fixture to have two or fewer goals shared out.

Both have shown they can be pretty solid defensively and I do think some of the attacking players that could be absent on Tuesday will help the defences out a little more.

An early goal could open things up and that is always the concern, but the longer this is tight, the less chance we will see a massive tactical rethink from either manager. I think both will want to keep it as tight as possible and punish any mistakes they find from the other and this could lead to a relatively low-scoring fixture.


Manchester United v Southampton Pick: This is a really intriguing game and that is largely because both Manchester United and Southampton have played well at times in the 2020/21 season, but have perhaps not been in the best form of late.

The Southampton slump has been evident for a bit longer than Manchester United's, but they will believe anything like the performance on Saturday against Aston Villa will see results turn around sooner rather than later.

However it is also impossible to ignore how stretched the squad feels at the moment and Southampton have just been regressing to the mean in the final third. Earlier this season they were being very clinical in front of goal, but recently Southampton have not been taking advantage of the chances they have been creating.

The regression comes from the fact that Southampton were perhaps scoring more than they deserved earlier in the season and now they face a Manchester United team who have looked a little better defensively.

Individual mistakes and some sloppiness cost Manchester United against Sheffield United, but they have been largely restricting what opponents have been able to produce over the last month. That has seen the clean sheets pick up and Manchester United have also looked pretty threatening going forward.

Poor finishing from Edinson Cavani cost two points on Saturday at Arsenal, but Manchester Unite will believe they can create more opportunities against the defence they are facing in midweek. The recovery time is not ideal as well as the travel, but Southampton will be feeling the same and there is no doubt that Manchester United have the superior squad on paper at least.

Games between these clubs have been competitive since Ralph Hasenhuttl took over at St Mary's and I have no doubt Southampton will cause some problems in this one too. They have energy and intensity which has to be respected and if they are underestimated Southampton will punish their hosts in this game.

After the defeat to Sheffield United I would be extremely disappointed if we don't see an all around better Manchester United who created some very good chances at Arsenal. I think those will eventually start being converted into goals and with plenty of time before facing Everton, I think a strong Manchester United may have too much for a Southampton team who have been just struggling of late.

The away team could play a part if Manchester United give the ball away in the final third as they have been doing at times, but for the main I do think United will be too good. With the quality in the final third, I think Manchester United will be able to get after a Southampton team that could be without a couple of key players in defensive areas and it will result in a more comfortable scoreline than the actual ninety minutes will be.


Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace have earned important wins for Steve Bruce and Roy Hodgson this past weekend and both earned clean sheets too which will really make the managers smile.

Now they meet each other as another round of Premier League fixtures quickly comes around and both clubs will be targeting a positive result which will maintain a healthy gap to the bottom three.

Both teams have a similar style- they would love to be organised defensively and then look for the magic from the wide players to create something going the other way. Callum Wilson is the best forward so will give Newcastle United hope, but Wilfred Zaha and Eberechi Eze arguably give Crystal Palace a better balance in the wide areas than Newcastle United can rely upon.

It does make for a competitive fixture and both teams will be looking to cover up for defensive absentees which may leave them vulnerable.

There are similarities and that is perhaps why games between Newcastle United and Crystal Palace have been as competitive as they have been. Nothing much has separated the teams in recent times and the last four games between them have seen both win twice.

Goals have been hard to come by and there have been just nine goals in total from the last 8 between the clubs. Only one of those games has seen both teams move the scoreboard and I do think this is going to be another tight, competitive fixture with nothing much between them.

It might lead to at least one clean sheet on Tuesday, although you do have to wonder about the run of quick fixtures and whether some tiredness leads to more mistakes than we would normally see. Even then I think these two teams rely on some real magic to break the door down in the final third and both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace will believe they have the schemes to close down the other.

With a lack of goals between these clubs in recent times, I think the trend may continue on Tuesday.


Burnley v Manchester City Pick: The games come thick and fast in the Premier League at the moment and February is looking like another incredibly busy month for teams in the top flight.

With that in mind rotation is going to be important, but it is much more difficult for those in the lower half to do that and maintain standards compared with those in the top half.

Sean Dyche might have a busy summer with the new investment at Burnley, but for now he has to focus on his team and making sure they are at their best in each passing game. With that in mind you do think they will avoid risking players that may be carrying knocks knowing there is a much more 'important' League game to come this weekend against fellow relegation rivals Brighton.

Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood should both miss out and I do think that will only aid Manchester City who have dominated Burnley over the last few seasons.

Pep Guardiola made a number of changes to his first eleven in the 1-0 win over Sheffield United on Saturday, but that means the likes of John Stones, Joao Cancelo, Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling are well rested. I expect those four to play on Wednesday, although the manager will also have one eye on the big Sunday fixture at Anfield which could see Manchester City take complete control of the destiny of the Premier League title.

Changes will be made, but Manchester City have found the system which has given them strong balance between attack and defence. They continue to offer up very little in their own final third, while creating chances going forward and I think we will see yet another game where Manchester City keep a clean sheet.

6 of the last 7 against Burnley have ended with a win to nil for Manchester City including both played this season.

They have only conceded 1 goal in their last 3 visits to Turf Moor and that was an 89th minute consolation in a 1-4 win here.

With Burnley perhaps focused on the big fixtures coming up, Manchester City should be able to take control and keep the clean sheets coming in another victory.


Fulham v Leicester City Pick: This is an important game at the top and bottom of the Premier League between two clubs who have suffered poor results this past weekend. Fulham will feel they dropped two points in their draw at West Brom, which leaves them stuck in the bottom three, while Leicester City blew a 1-0 lead in their 1-3 home defeat to Leeds United.

Both Scott Parker and Brendan Rodgers will be looking for much better on Wednesday evening with the quick return to Premier League action. At least Fulham have had twenty-four hours longer to prepare, but Parker has to be concerned with the amount of chances Fulham continue to give their opponents.

They were fortunate to draw at Brighton last week, but Fulham have been punished in home losses to Chelsea, Manchester United and Burnley. They have given up plenty of opportunities in those defeats and Fulham will likely feel some pressure from a Leicester City team looking for a reaction to a couple of bad results.

Brendan Rodgers will note his team have had the better of the chances against Everton and Leeds United, but he will also be hoping to see more composure in the final third. Jamie Vardy is still missing, but that can't be an excuse for some of the poor finishing we have seen.

However he will be encouraged by the chances created and Leicester City earn a measure of revenge for the home loss to Fulham earlier this season.

As poor as Fulham have been at the back in recent games, they are also not creating as many chances as Scott Parker would hope. The injuries in the Leicester City defensive areas will be something Parker will feel his team can exploit, but I think there is a real gap in quality here and Leicester City can underline that.

The Foxes have been very good away from home all season and Fulham have faced five of the current top ten in the Premier League and lost 4 of those games with the draw coming against Liverpool. I expect Leicester City to have the best moments in this one over ninety minutes and they can become the latest of the top clubs to win at Craven Cottage while plunging Fulham into further relegation trouble.


Leeds United v Everton Pick: On the face of things you have to expect there will be goals when Leeds United host Everton and that is largely down to the manner in which the home team approach games. Leeds United love pushing forward in numbers, but that can leave them open to the counter attack and so the layers are not going to take risks in the prices for goals.

That is the main expectation of neutrals whenever Leeds United play, but it is perhaps down to the performances Marcelo Bielsa's team have had against the top clubs. Those fixtures linger longer in the memories for most football fans, but I think there is every chance that goals are not as free-flowing as some may believe.

Both Rodrigo and Raphinha could miss out and Patrick Bamford is also a doubt which would remove some key attacking players for Leeds United. It also should be noted that Leeds United have had 9 home League games this season and 5 of those have finished with two or fewer goals produced, while Elland Road's playing surface did not look the best in the 0-1 home defeat to Brighton in the last fixture played here.

Everton have played well away from home so they will be expecting to bounce back having scored just two goals in their last 2 Premier League games, both played at Goodison Park. Defensively they have looked decent in recent games too, although Newcastle United found considerable success attacking Everton on Saturday.

3 of the last 5 Everton away games have finished with less than three goals scored and this is a team that haven't been creating a lot of chances in recent games. The results have perhaps covered up those shortcomings and the best avenue to success for Everton in this one may come from the quality they produce from set pieces.

Everton have struggled for good chances in their last 6 Premier League games and I would not be surprised if one of the two teams fail to score. Teams have had more successes going forward against Everton in that time, but Leeds United might be without key attacking players which will just reduce their threat somewhat.

Most will be expecting goals and an early one will spark this fixture, but I think the value is looking for this to be a low-scoring game. It has happened more than some may think in recent Leeds United and Everton home/away games respectively and the game at Goodison Park saw plenty of chances created but only a single goal scored on the day.

With potential fatigue building in both camps and squads stretched, I think goals may be in shorter supply than expected.


Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: There will be some disappointment and hurt around the London Stadium after the poor performance in the 1-3 home loss to Liverpool, but David Moyes will be looking to pick his players up and steady themselves for the big games ahead.

This will be a real test for West Ham United who will still think they are good enough to earn a European berth through their final League position. The Champions League is likely going to be beyond them, but West Ham United can only focus on things one game at a time and Moyes will feel his team have enough to challenge Aston Villa.

That will especially be the case if Aston Villa are as porous defensively as they were on Saturday. A clean sheet might argue against that, but VAR really did come down on Aston Villa's side having disallowed a Southampton goal for the tightest of offside decisions and also bafflingly not awarding the home team a Penalty in the first half.

Southampton created a lot of chances against Aston Villa and this West Ham United have been very productive in the final third which should make them dangerous. Prior to the defeat to Liverpool, West Ham United had largely been defending pretty well with the limited chances being offered out to opponents and that sparked their 6 game winning run in all competitions.

Keeping Aston Villa quiet is not an easy task with the quality and confidence in the home squad and I do think this is going to be a really good game to watch. Both Dean Smith and David Moyes will believe their team have enough attacking threat to produce the goals to win this game and I can see these teams sharing out at least three goals between them for the second time this season.

This corresponding fixture ended goalless last season, but both Aston Villa and West Ham United are playing with a real attacking threat. Both have been creating a lot of chances and this game may be sparked by an early goal as two teams chasing European places become involved in an entertaining game.


Liverpool v Brighton Pick: The momentum looks to be back behind Liverpool after 1-3 wins at Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, but they will be looking to snap the poor form at Anfield. Confidence has been restored behind the wins in the capital though and Liverpool are now taking advantage of the chances they have been creating.

It will be a challenge against this Brighton team who have been well organised in recent games and who have earned 3 clean sheets in succession in the Premier League. During that time Brighton have earned 7 points from a possible 9 to put some distance between themselves and the bottom three, but the games are coming at a rapid rate at the moment and Graham Potter may choose to make some changes.

You wouldn't really blame him if he did that because Brighton put in a huge effort to beat Tottenham Hotspur at home on Sunday evening. They have a trip to Burnley to come this weekend too and that has to be the priority as a fixture against a relegation rival and so Graham Potter and his players could easily look beyond this one.

Liverpool do have a huge game on deck themselves when they host Manchester City, but the 4 point gap to the leaders is one they cannot allow to get out of hand. Manchester City also have a game in hand so it is imperative for Liverpool to put some wins together and see if the pressure can cause their title rivals to crack even a little bit, while Jurgen Klopp will also look for a third win in a row to give the team confidence before the big game on Sunday.

They haven't always had it easy against Brighton and I do think the visitors can make things awkward if they choose to sit in and hit Liverpool on the counter attack. Defensively there are still some questions for Liverpool to answer, but they have looked more secure in the last two League games and they did restrict the amount of chances Spurs and West Ham could create.

Brighton could use set pieces to hurt their hosts, but Liverpool should have the edge and I expect them to beat this opponent at Anfield again.

The last 2 between these teams at this ground have been tight, but I think Liverpool are playing well enough to break down Brighton even if it takes some time to do so. Sadio Mane's absence could hurt, but Liverpool managed without him on Sunday and I think they will likely win this one by a couple of goals on the night.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea will feel failure to return to the Champions League would make this a hugely unsuccessful season. Even a League Cup success for Spurs would not improve the mood too much, despite the long wait for silverware at the club, and so there is some pressure on Jose Mourinho to turn things around.

He does have two routes back into the Champions League with the other being the Europa League. Jose Mourinho did the League Cup/Europa League double in his first season as manager of Manchester United so there is previous if that is the best avenue for Tottenham Hotspur to return to the Champions League.

For now Mourinho will not want to lose any more ground on the top four teams in the Premier League having seen Tottenham Hotspur suffer back to back defeats to Liverpool and Brighton. They have created very little in those defeats which will be a real worry for Mourinho, while defensively Tottenham Hotspur have been sloppy to say the least.

This has the makings of a tactical game between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea with the visitors being led into the fixture by Thomas Tuchel. The Blues won for the first time under their German manager on Sunday, but there is still a feeling out process between the players and Tuchel and Chelsea didn't create a lot of chances despite the dominance of the ball.

It was the same story against Wolves, but in that fixture Chelsea were not able to break the door down.

At least defensively they have been stronger and this does feel like a game that might be tight and competitive. Both teams will want to stifle the other and then exploit gaps, but it won't be the first fixture between those clubs expecting top four finishes to end up lacking some goalmouth action.

The edge has to be given to Chelsea simply because of Tottenham Hotspur's current form, and especially with Harry Kane absent, but I would not be surprised to see a reaction from the home team. At the same time Chelsea are hard to trust to win here as they are still learning the methods of a new manager at the helm and games between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have been tight.

Both fixtures this season have seen two or fewer goals shared out and the last 3 games hosted by Spurs have failed to see three or more goals scored. This has the makings of another low-scoring game on Thursday with the potential of a draw quite high, a result that may not be nay good to either team in the long run.

MY PICKS: Sheffield United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals
Newcastle United-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City Win to Nil
Leicester City
Leeds United-Everton Under 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 22
I can't really complain with the return from the latest GameWeek in the Fantasy Football season, but I still feel I am leaving some points out there which is creating frustration.

The decision to bring in Harvey Barnes worked out well enough with a goal this weekend, but Lucas Digne and Everton largely disappointed. However the feeling is that Everton vs Manchester City will produce a Double GameWeek sooner rather than later, assuming Manchester City beat Swansea City in the FA Cup Fifth Round, and that will make those assets valuable.

Guessing the Manchester City rotations will be difficult though as they look to balance the FA Cup with Premier League and Champions League commitments this month and that was the case in GW21. The likes of Joao Cancelo, John Stones, Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling are popular assets that were rested against Sheffield United and you would imagine some changes will be made whenever Manchester City play and especially with the loaded February schedule to come.

I do think they will have at least two extra games this month, once again assuming Manchester City will be too good for a Championship team in the FA Cup, and that is why I am holding the players I have. There has been some consideration about how to best arrange the squad for what is likely to be a very busy GW26 as fixtures are made up from the early postponements and with the upcoming FA Cup Quarter Finals also seeing some Premier League games needing to be moved from GW29, but the Manchester City assets stay for now as they are.

That GW26 does look like being a loaded one, although I am a little surprised the Premier League have not decided to at least re-arrange some of the earlier postponed games. The Covid-19 cases being picked up by the League have reduced in each passing week since the high of early January, but you can't rule out further outbreaks which would really restrict spaces in the calendar and so I was expecting more fixtures to be played when they could.

UEFA have already given the green light for Leagues to re-arrange games on nights reserved for their big European competitions and so there are spaces for Aston Villa and Everton to have their games made up before GW26, but for now the Premier League is perhaps waiting to see how the FA Cup Fifth Round shakes up.

They have previously re-arranged games at short notice so that won't be a surprise if they do that again, but that lack of clarity is making it that much harder to prepare than we would usually have in a 'normal' League season.


In the last GameWeek I mentioned I would love to roll a transfer over, but I feel that is impossible after Hakim Ziyech was left out of the Chelsea squad in their 2-0 win over Burnley. It has been suggested that he was rested having hit the 'red zone' but I am not sure where Thomas Tuchel stands with his team and the transfer was made before Frank Lampard was Sacked.

At his price range I feel I am carrying Ziyech at the moment despite the good looking fixtures in front of Chelsea and I can't count on him from week to week. With rotation at a high level at this time of the season, I do think you need a full bench to fall back upon just in case and so it is an easy decision to move Ziyech from the squad.

My focus has fallen on Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Everton as the best teams to use to cover for Ziyech.

It is hard to trust Crystal Palace despite the good looking schedule in front of them and it is mainly down to the fact they have not created a lot of chances. However you would have to say that both Wilfred Zaha and Ebrechi Eze are most likely to be involved in any goals they score and there is a possibility of being covered with an additional player expected to play twice in DGW26.

Both Aston Villa and Everton have a high chance of being asked to play twice in that week and both have other fixtures that also need to be re-arranged. The latter is more likely to be involved in an early Double which is tempting, but Aston Villa have been creating more chances and I think they are the best team to look to when adding a midfielder to the squad.

That is especially the case with money to be saved by removing Ziyech for one of their players and both Ross Barkley and Bertrand Traore do offer some value in my opinion. They both have decent underlying numbers over the last few weeks and playing in an attack minded team helps, while the two players are involved in set pieces too.

Jack Grealish is the best player and his numbers are pretty hard to ignore, but using Barkley or Traore does open the door for the squad to be improved in other areas in the weeks ahead. It will also give me some more options as I think about what to do with the likes of Marcus Rashford and Che Adams who continue to disappoint more than they should.

Both players will be given an opportunity to turn it around, but we are now at the stage of the season where you don't want to to wait too long for players to fulfil their potential and instead need to make sure your squad is performing as it should be.

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