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Saturday 13 February 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 13-17)

The FA Cup Quarter Finals have been set and as a fan it is always nice to see Manchester United take another step towards ending their wait for silverware- I would love the opportunity to get to a FA Cup Semi Final and Final at Wembley Stadium, although I know I am clutching at straws to even believe that is a slight possibility.

The line up is also important for Fantasy Football players with GW29 seeing a number of matches postponed as many of the top flight clubs are involved in the FA Cup Quarter Finals that are scheduled to take place that weekend. It means upcoming DGWs although at the time of writing we don't have any confirmation of new dates, but I will get into that below.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: The opening Premier League fixture of the latest round of games is a big one which could have huge top four implications for both clubs through the remainder of the season.

Both Leicester City and Liverpool occupy one of those places at the moment, but the queue of teams chasing them down have built behind them and the gap will feel very tight for the losing team.

Brendan Rodgers' team have momentum after winning 2 of their last 3 games in all competitions and they have also won 3 of their last 4 here. However they remain just 4 points clear of 5th placed Chelsea with plenty of fixtures left on the schedule and the manager will be all too aware of the way Leicester City crumbled at the back end of last season.

That memory will be an experience builder for the players, but they have to show they can perform and the last three times they have faced Liverpool it has been one way traffic. One of the defeats came by a 2-1 scoreline, but the last two have seen Leicester City out-scored 7-0 and the visitors on Saturday have created a lot of chances in those wins.

This may not be the same Liverpool team with issues at the back and the team not looking as gelled together as we have come to expect, but Liverpool are still a very good team and they are looking for a big reaction to the embarrassing defeat against Manchester City last weekend.

In the last couple of away games played, Liverpool have dominated at Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United and so they will head to Leicester City with some belief they can turn things around. There is still some real quality in the final third and Liverpool are scoring goals away from home which makes them dangerous.

Leicester City could also be without at least two of the first choice defenders that would be selected, although they should be able to cause problems on the counter in this one.

Picking a winner is not easy, but goals have tended to flow when these teams have met and 8 of the last 10 have ended with at least three shared out. Neither have looked completely convincing at the back and I think an early goal on Saturday morning will open up this League game and could lead to an entertaining early fixture.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: Both Crystal Palace and Burnley are no longer involved in anything but Premier League games between now and the middle of May and both are chasing the points to make sure they are playing more top flight football in the 2021/22 season.

They are on course to do that, but neither Roy Hodgson nor Sean Dyche will be allowing their players to rest on their laurels until they are mathematically certain to be keep their status as Premier League clubs.

With that in mind this has the makings of yet another tight game between two clubs who look to be well organised defensively. In recent weeks Burnley have been conceding more goals than they would like, but they are facing a Crystal Palace team missing the inspiration and magic that Wilfred Zaha brings to the field and that should make things 'easier' to some extent.

At the same time the best avenues towards goal that Burnley like to take are those which Crystal Palace will feel they can defend well enough, namely set pieces and crosses. It is no surprise that 7 of the last 8 between these clubs have ended with fewer than three goals shared out and the same number of fixtures have ended with at least one of the teams failing to score.

One goal certainly feels like it will bring the three points with it and I think that is what is likely going to happen on Saturday.

Burnley have scored a single goal in their last 4 games in all competitions and Crystal Palace have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 at home. It may give the home team the edge, but Burnley have won 2 of their last 4 here (losing the other 2) and a tight game is my feeling for this one more than knowing which way the points will eventually land.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A couple of months ago this might have been a clash between clubs in similar positions as they enter this weekend, but back in December it was Tottenham Hotspur leading the way and Manchester City scrambling.

When these teams met out of the November international break, Tottenham Hotspur counter attacked with devastation to beat Manchester City 2-0, but Pep Guardiola seems to have learned from the experience. Since that result Manchester City are unbeaten in 22 games in all competitions and they have conceded a measly 6 goals.

Ruben Dias is a doubt for this fixture and Manchester City may also be missing their two defensive midfielders which may just take away some of the momentum that they have picked up in their 15 game winning run. With both Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero expected to miss out it just changes the feel of the team if they are without Dias, Fernandinho and Rodri, but Manchester City have shown they can overcome losses all season.

The question for Tottenham Hotspur is how much the FA Cup Fifth Round defeat at Everton has taken from the legs- the defending that day was embarrassing, but losing 5-4 in Extra Time would have been a real mental blow as one as a physically taxing one and Jose Mourinho will have to make some serious team selections to get the best out of his team.

Another defeat may have the manager focusing on the Cup competitions left as his best route back into the Champions League as it was in the first season as manager of Manchester United, but for now Tottenham Hotspur have to focus and try and stop the Manchester City machine from rolling to another win.

The lack of chances being created by Tottenham Hotspur in recent Premier League games is a concern, but Harry Kane was absent for much of those and his return is a big positive for the team. Even then it is hard to believe Jose Mourinho will set his side up to play in any other way that what we have become accustomed to seeing and that is sitting in deep and looking to counter Manchester City where they can.

Jose Mourinho has led Tottenham Hotspur to narrow home wins over Manchester City in both of the previous meetings between these clubs. In both Tottenham Hotspur had to ride their luck at times, but they will need to do a lot more of that with Manchester City in their current form and I just can't see them doing it in their current defensive shape.

It would be a surprise if Tottenham Hotspur open up too early, but Manchester City should be able to wear them down with the quality and confidence they have. The away goals have begun to flow, but Manchester City have been all about clean sheets at home and I think a narrow home win is most likely in this one as they continue to pressure their title rivals.


Brighton v Aston Villa Pick: A long Saturday of Premier League Football will come to an end on the south coast at the Amex Stadium where Brighton and Aston Villa will be looking to keep their good runs going.

There has been a touch more inconsistency about Aston Villa, but they have won 3 of their last 5 Premier League games and have had a week to prepare for this fixture.

Brighton had also been enjoying a solid unbeaten run, but they were undone very late on in their FA Cup Fifth Round tie at Leicester City. It did provide further signs that Brighton are still well organised at the back and have found the balance to be effective at both ends of the pitch, although a lack of goals continues to blight them.

They play some wonderfully pleasing football, but the final ball or the finish has let them down at times. However, Graham Potter will be pleased with what he has seen and he will believe his team can at least make things difficult for what has been an erratic Aston Villa team when it comes to the chance creation.

Dean Smith has done a wonderful job at Villa Park and his team are chasing European spots, but he will need his team to show a little more consistency down the stretch. Having a week to prepare will be a huge boost for the players that put in a huge effort to beat Arsenal last weekend, while Aston Villa have managed themselves defensively.

The last two League games between these clubs at the Amex Stadium have both ended 1-1 and I don't think that can be ruled out for a third time in a row. My feeling it is going to be tighter than the layers believe, as they are expecting at least three goals with that being an odds on quote, but games at the Amex Stadium have been tighter than that more often than not in recent weeks.

7 of the last 9 Premier League games in this Stadium have finished with less than three goals scored and while Aston Villa games have tended to feature goals, I think this is one which could be tight and competitive all the way through.


Southampton v Wolves Pick: These two will be sick of the sight of each other by the end of the 90 minutes played on Sunday as Southampton and Wolves meet for the second time in three days. It was Southampton who won the FA Cup game at Molinuex and Ralph Hasenhuttl was rewarded for selecting what looked the stronger team on the day, but I expect a better looking Wolves team in this one.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter what team Wolves select unless they can find some consistency in their play in the final third. They still have not managed to replace Raul Jimenez in the manner they would have liked and Wolves are a hard team to read.

You can understand why Southampton are the favourites because they feel a little more consistent than their visitors, but this is a team that has lost 4 Premier League games in a row. Some of those losses have been a little harsh on the performance, but they were also undone by a huge amount of injuries in the squad and look a little healthier now.

Southampton put in a huge effort to win the Cup tie at Molineux and are unlikely to make many changes, although they do have some players that can come in and freshen things up. Defensively they don't give a lot away and Wolves may need something special to score here, but Southampton will also be trying to break down what should be a more familiar personnel in the Wolves defence.

Goals may once again be hard to come by and the team who scores first will believe they can contain the other for long enough to secure the three points. I don't think there will be much in it, although I give a slight edge to Southampton who have been looking a little better than Wolves in recent weeks even if the results have not always made that clear.

One of the teams failing to score again after the Thursday Cup tie will be no surprise in the early Sunday kick off.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: Roy Keane has been quite vocal in his criticisms of the Manchester United players and the attitude of consistently hearing the club were not in the title race when they were leading the way. The former Captain knows what it takes to win the biggest trophies at Old Trafford and I tend to agree that the lack of belief has been a real factor in some of the recent results which have seen United lose ground on rivals City.

Maybe the pressure being off will help, but for now the focus has to be making sure they are not allowing clubs to get too close when it comes to the top four race. That is now the main aim barring Manchester City having a collapse that most can't see coming and Manchester United can't afford to drop more points against a club mired in relegation trouble.

They did that at Old Trafford in the 1-2 defeat to Sheffield United, but I do have to say that The Blades have been in much better form over the last month.

I cannot say the same for West Brom who have had little improvement since Sam Allardyce came in as manager and the veteran looks to set to lose his record of never being relegated from the Premier League. It isn't just the fact that West Brom have not being earning points, but they have shown none of the hallmarks of an Allardyce team and defensively West Brom have been nothing short of a mess.

Mistakes happen, but it is the fatal ones West Brom continue to make which Sam Allardyce is finding impossible to erase. The players have also not felt comfortable playing at home all season, but under their new manager they have been conceding an alarming amount of goals and overall West Brom have conceded at least 10 more home goals than any other team in the Premier League.

West Brom have conceded at least twice in their last 6 home Premier League games, but more alarming is that the 2-2 draw with Fulham ended a run of at least three goals being conceded at The Hawthorns at 5 games. The Baggies have not really been competitive in those 5 defeats either and I think Manchester United should have too much for them as long as they are focused.

Winning games away from home has not been an issue, but Manchester United have rarely blown past opponents. Only 1 of their last 8 away games has seen Manchester United win by two or more goals, but I think this is a good chance to get back to the run they had been on during the middle of the 2020 calendar year and I think they will have too much for their hosts.

Extra Time on Tuesday is not great, but Manchester United have plenty of time to give their loving fans a strong St Valentine's Day gift.


Arsenal v Leeds United Pick: This has the makings of a really good Premier League game, but that is the case for most that Leeds United have been involved in this season.

Even when they have played at the traditional Big Six clubs, Marcelo Bielsa has set his team up to get on the front foot and cause problems for those teams. So far Leeds United have done that with a narrow loss at Liverpool followed by more comprehensive defeats at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Bielsa won't change his plans.

He has been rewarded with his Leeds United team putting plenty of away wins on the board and they are visiting an Arsenal team that is not of the level they were even three or four seasons ago.

Arsenal have been inconsistent at home and this is a team that can be got at, although the spaces Leeds United will leave behind are likely to be exploited by some talented younger players.

That should make it an interesting game and I would be surprised if Arsenal can extend their run of clean sheets at home to 5 games here. Teams have created chances against them and that is something that will encourage Leeds United.

It should be a decent watch on Sunday afternoon and the lack of draws in Arsenal home/Leeds United away games respectively suggest we will find a winner. Arsenal have just knuckled down a bit in recent weeks, but they still feel vulnerable and I do think Leeds United have the ability to earn a good result here.

The recent 1-3 win at Leicester City shows what Leeds United can do when at their best and I would not be surprised if they win this one. However keeping the draw on your side is probably the 'smarter' play in this game.


Everton v Fulham Pick: The late finish to the FA Cup Fifth Round tie will have drained some of the Everton legs and they may even be missing Lucas Digne and Dominic Calvert-Lewin who both picked up knocks in the victory over Tottenham Hotspur.

It was a victory though and that should mean a spring in the step as Everton look to close in on the top four places in the Premier League. Playing at home has been difficult for Everton who have needed Extra Time to win a couple of their FA Cup ties at Goodison Park, while they have not won any of their last 3 Premier League games here, but they are going up against an increasingly desperate Fulham team.

Scott Parker has made his team a little more difficult to beat and 4 away Premier League draws in a row underlines the point. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 League games overall, but Fulham continue to struggle for consistency in the final third and we are getting to a stage of the season where only wins will do.

For every point Fulham have been picking up, it seems their relegation rivals Burnley and Brighton have earned three big points to move further clear. That has put some pressure on Fulham who will be looking for a big result before facing a huge relegation six pointer at Turf Moor and this could be a pivotal week for the club.

Two wins would see Fulham have momentum and close in on those teams outside of the bottom three, but failure to win both would leave them in a desperate position. Scott Parker has to find the right balance between attack and defence but his team have been perhaps riding their luck through some of their recent away draws.

Everton would have felt more confident if Dominic Calvert-Lewin was leading the line, but in James Rodriguez, Richarlison and possibly Josh King leading the line I do think this Everton team have enough about them to win the game.

The side have only scored a single goal in 3 home Premier League games which is a concern, but Everton do create more chances than Fulham and I think they can earn a 13th home win in a row against this opponent.


West Ham United v Sheffield United Pick: There are two games on Monday afternoon and the first could have big implications at the top and bottom as West Ham United continue their surprising chase of a top four place and Sheffield United look for a morale boosting League win in their fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams are likely to come up short when it comes to these goals at the end of the season, but for now David Moyes and Chris Wilder are trying to motivate the players that are ready to go.

Injuries could play a key part in how far West Ham United can go, but they are hoping the likes of Michail Antonio will be available for selection on Monday. He is a hugely important part of the team for David Moyes, especially without a recognised back up, and the manager will be looking to get at least 60 minutes out of his player.

Jesse Lingard is back and he has given West Ham United some energy, although the absence of Angelo Ogbonna might take away the strong defensive numbers they have been producing. Even then it is hard to make a strong case for Sheffield United to expose any vulnerabilities with their struggles in the final third and this is a team that has really struggled away from home.

Defensively it feels like there is an opportunity against Sheffield United and I think The Hammers will nick the points. If they can get 60 minutes out of Michail Antonio I think the home team have the goals in the squad to do enough to hurt Sheffield United, while they are good enough defensively to earn a narrow victory.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: A learning curve is moving forward at Stamford Bridge as the players become used to Thomas Tuchel and the manager understands what makes his squad tick. That has led to some decent, but unspectacular performances from Chelsea who have been more functional than amazing since their new manager has arrived at the club.

They have certainly looked more balanced and Chelsea have only conceded a single goal in their 5 games under Tuchel. That includes a solid 0-1 win at Barnsley on Thursday evening in the FA Cup Fifth Round with a much changed team, while Chelsea's only goal conceded under their German manager was a ridiculous error between Edouard Mendy and Antonio Rudiger at Bramall Lane.

Chelsea are not scoring a lot of goals, but they are doing enough in the final third and they should feel confident in getting the better of Newcastle United.

2 wins from 3 Premier League games will give Newcastle United some confidence, but they have lost Callum Wilson for a while and that leaves them a little short in the forward areas. There is some pace and quality in the squad that will have to be respected, but Newcastle United had not scored in 6 consecutive away games in all competitions before the win at Everton in their last away League game.

However, it was Callum Wilson who scored twice that day and his absence is likely to be felt. Newcastle United have a poor record at Stamford Bridge over the years too and I think Chelsea are likely to have enough to secure the three points behind their latest clean sheet under Thomas Tuchel.


Burnley v Fulham PickYou hear the term 'relegation six pointer' thrown around a little too freely at times, but there is no doubting the importance of this fixture between Burnley and Fulham. It is actually the first time the two clubs are meeting in the Premier League this season and both games are going to be hugely pivotal towards which Division they are playing in next season.

If Fulham are able to win at Turf Moor they will really feel there is some momentum behind them- the win at Everton on Sunday shows there is plenty of belief in the squad with the victory coming twenty-four hours after Burnley had extended their lead to 11 points over Fulham with a win at Crystal Palace.

That has to be hugely encouraging for Scott Parker and the Coaching staff, but they will also be well aware of how much more difficult things will look if they were to lose on Wednesday.

It would put Burnley in a position where they would begin to be feeling pretty safe if they are able to win, while keeping a distance to 17th placed Newcastle United as a safety net too. The win at Crystal Palace came out of a very good performance and Burnley dominated when hosting Brighton in their last League game here despite having to settle for the 1-1 draw.

A point would actually be a relatively decent outcome for Burnley with an 8 point gap over Fulham and another fixture ticked off the list. I don't think they will play for a draw, but Burnley are more likely of the two to sit back if it is level with 20 minutes to go and Fulham may find it hard to break down this opponent even though Ben Mee is going to be missing from the heart of the defence.

An early goal could really open this fixture up, but I don't think either manager will want to give too much away in the first half. Both teams can sometimes find it hard to create really good chances and I do have to note that both Burnley and Fulham have actually produced some decent defensive efforts of late.

The lack of goals can't be ignored and I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility to see a fixture where at least one of the teams fails to hit the back of the net. A draw might not be the best result for Fulham, but it would keep them in touch with those teams above them, while I imagine Burnley will look to keep things tight as they have largely managed to do against Brighton and Crystal Palace in their last couple of League games.

This feels like a match that will see goals hard to come by and the 1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous score against the pick.


Everton v Manchester City PickNo wants to concede the Premier League title in February, but the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City and Manchester United have only themselves to blame for falling so far behind Manchester City.

A win for the latter will mean they are 10 points clear at the top of the table with 14 League games to be played and Manchester City have put together a strong run at a time where others have not been able to keep up.

During that time they have beaten all of those teams mentioned aside from Leicester City and Manchester City are on a roll. Kevin De Bruyne gets injured and Ilkay Gundogan steps up, and even the injury to the latter which may force him to miss this game will see either Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva or Riyad Mahrez raise their game to fill in the gaps.

Kevin De Bruyne looks set to return before the end of the month and Gundogan may have only been a precautionary sub on Saturday. Manchester City thus look really strong and not many would rule them out on winning another domestic treble having done that in 2019, while Pep Guardiola could soon turn full attention to the Champions League if their domestic schedule is under control.

They look dangerous and Manchester City have made it a habit of beating Everton ever since the 4-0 loss suffered here in Pep Guardiola's first season in charge of the club. Manchester City have won the last 5 overall and their last 3 at Goodison Park with all of those three wins here coming by two or more goals.

Everton have really struggled for consistency in recent weeks too which makes it hard to believe they can cause too many concerns for the home team. Without the fans a trip here is not nearly as intimidating as it may be and Everton have not won any of their last 4 League games here, while they have lost the last 3.

Goals have been a problem and Everton don't do clean sheets which should give Manchester City a real edge. The last 2 League games here have seen Everton lose to Newcastle United and Fulham by the same 0-2 scoreline and Manchester City have been grinding down opponents both home and away.

The last 8 away wins for Manchester City have come by two or more goal margins and I think they will cover the handicap in another victory here.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Brighton-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals
Southampton-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Everton
West Ham United & Under 4.5 Goals
Chelsea Win to Nil
Burnley-Fulham Both Teams to Score NO
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 24
This is not a normal season for clubs, players, fans and Fantasy Football players and it does mean we are perhaps not going to have the big DGWs we tend to see at the end of the season.

Instead we may see a few small DGWs through the remainder of the season with the biggest one left likely to be in GameWeek 26 when a number of the matches scheduled for GW29 (FA Cup Quarter Final weekend) will be moved forward. That is largely down to the limited time between now and the end of the season while needing to add in the European competitions which resume this week and the possibility for further postponements for teams that go deeper in the FA Cup and we might even only get very short notice of games being added to weeks.

GameWeek 24 is actually the latest Double GameWeek coming up with four teams playing twice and the likes of Manchester City and Everton do have other games that need to be rescheduled having both made it through to the FA Cup Quarter Final where they will meet one another.

They meet in the Premier League this week as they play twice along with Burnley and Fulham and I had already kept some of those players in my squad- as I have mentioned here before, I believed the Premier League would look to re-schedule games where they could this season as we remain unsure whether any more clubs will be affected by Covid-19 as both Newcastle United and Aston Villa have been already this season.

I am a touch surprised the Aston Villa vs Everton game that needs to be played somewhere wasn't added to GameWeek 25 alongside the DGW for both Leeds United and Southampton coming up.

And now we can begin to guess how the Premier League is going to deal with the eleven confirmed postponed games that have to be re-arranged.

As I have said, I think GW26 is going to be the biggest DGW left on the schedule and I expect seven additional matches to be set which means fourteen of the twenty Premier League teams could play twice that week.

With the way the FA Cup Quarter Final line up has worked out, Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur is almost certainly going to be added to that weekend to make four Premier League games to be played- I am likely to use my Free Hit that week and keep the Wild Card in hand for the weeks ahead.

That means there are likely to be ten games left to be re-scheduled and I can see the upcoming weeks having a look like this:

DGW24
Burnley v Fulham
Everton v Manchester City

DG25
Leeds United v Southampton

DGW26
Burnley v Leicester City
Crystal Palace v Manchester United
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool v Chelsea
Manchester City v Southampton
Sheffield United v Aston Villa
West Brom v Everton

DGW27
Aston Villa v Everton
Manchester City v Wolves

GW29
Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur

In this case only Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton would have be placed in the schedule, but it would mean there are at least two free weeks in which it could be played after Easter now that Spurs are out of the FA Cup. And importantly it would mean that Jose Mourinho's men won't have the fixture pile up like their manager has been worrying about even if Everton were to beat Manchester City in the FA Cup Quarter Final as it would mean a maximum of two Tottenham Hotspur games that need to be re-arranged and with two free midweeks left in the calendar after the March international break.

You could swap the Manchester City matches with Southampton and Wolves in DGW26 and 27, but something like that schedule can't be ruled out.

I certainly think the teams that are still in the FA Cup and playing European Football will have their original GW29 fixtures moved forward because of the limited time available if those clubs are to go deep into their respective European competitions and progress in the FA Cup, but the Premier League is not under the same pressure when it comes to moving the matches involving clubs that are not involved in Europe.

For example Everton have been picked to play Southampton in DGW26 on Monday Night Football- with that in mind Manchester City could face Wolves that midweek instead and play Southampton the following week, while Everton's trip to West Brom has a number of additional weeks in which it can be guaranteed to be play even if The Toffees were to progress as far as the FA Cup Final.

It is something to consider and certainly something I am thinking about with the expected DGW26 looking the best time to play the Bench Boost.

My worse case scenario right now is that eight of my fifteen players would be playing twice that week, but I was also hoping the Premier League would have decided where they were going to re-schedule a number of those fixtures before the deadline for GW24.

But at the same time I think the Free Transfers can focus on the following teams who should be playing twice in GW26: Aston Villa, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Tottenham Hotspur who I feel are most likely to be in that spot.

If you can carry a transfer I would do that, but I pushed one forward last week and need to make a play, although I am comfortable with the squad as it is and where I am positioned while I wait for the fixture re-schedule to be announced by the Premier League.

I have five players on the DGW this week, which is a bonus, and I don't want to change the look of the team too far with the Bench Boost Chip looking an important one to play now.

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