Wimbledon Tennis Day 2 Picks 2018 (July 3rd)

With the World Cup and England perhaps having a tournament to remember it is no surprise that I am going to try and get the Wimbledon Picks out much earlier than I would usually at this time of the year.

In most cases I may only have the thread scheduled to be posted after the previous day's play is completed, so around 11pm in the evening, but I am going to be writing them before the results are known as I use the early hours and lunch time and early evening to try and get my thoughts down here.

You can read my outright picks from the tournament here although one player has already exited the tournament with an injury.

Day 1 looked a difficult one to call and so I didn't have a lot of Picks out, but Day 2 has been more appealing as far as I am concerned. My concentration has been solely on the men's First Round matches to be played on Tuesday as I couldn't find a confident angle with the women's matches scheduled.

As I have mentioned I am going to put my full thoughts down for some of the matches and add the full selection of Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section down below.

Hopefully these first two days can produce a positive start to the tournament and I will update the results on Tuesday morning from the Day 1 Picks.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Dudi Sela: In the immediate aftermath of winning yet another French Open title it sounded like Rafael Nadal was considering whether to take part in the grass court season at all. Instead he has decided to skip the preparation events for Wimbledon to make sure he is well rested and ready to have a real impact in this tournament for the first time since 2011.

The Spaniard may have continued his dominance on the clay courts, but he has not reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon since losing the Final to Novak Djokovic in 2011. This year presents a good chance for him to do that in a kind section of the draw, but Nadal has not felt his most comfortable on the grass courts so may appreciate this First Round match.

Take nothing away from Dudi Sela who has been a good pro, but he has struggled when stepping up to this level of competition. Like Nadal, Sela has not played any grass court tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon although he did have a very strong showing on the grass in 2017 which may give him some confidence.

In all honesty Sela has always been pretty happy on the grass and his numbers have mainly backed that up, although 2017 was an exceptionally good season for him on this surface. Increasing both hold and break percentages will do that for a player, but the challenge here is very clear against a player who is perhaps a little underrated on the grass.

Nadal has been beaten by some special efforts from big serving and big hitting opponents in recent years on the grass, but that is not what he is going to be facing in this First Round. Last year Nadal had a very strong hold percentage on this surface and that has remained strong on the grass in the recent years even if the results have not been as strong as Nadal would be demanding of himself.

On the clay it is Nadal's break ability which has sparked so much success, but on the grass he tends to find things a little more difficult. I would be surprised if he isn't able to have success against the Sela serve which will give Nadal the chance to get into the rallies on both first and second serve and I like the Spaniard to perhaps produce a statement kind of win in the First Round.

Nadal has been a comfortable winner over Sela in their two previous matches on the Tour and I think he will get stronger in this match the longer he is on the court. The number may be a big one, but I think Nadal is able to produce the breaks he needs to earn the win and the cover in hot conditions in London.


Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 sets v Denis Shapovalov: When you think of the future of tennis once the era of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and the likes is over you would likely have Denis Shapovalov as part of the 'Next Generation' of top male talents.

He is still a work in progress at the moment and as impressive as he can look there is still an inconsistency about his game which makes him a vulnerable Seed at Wimbledon. And there is no denying that Shapovalov would have been hoping for a much more simple First Round match than the one he has been given in the draw.

Jeremy Chardy has been in fine form in June and will be hoping he can carry that over in July. He has had great runs on the grass courts in Hertogenbosch and Queens on the main Tour which came after the Frenchman had won the popular Challenger in Surbiton. I expect Chardy is playing with plenty of confidence at the moment which is backed up by some impressive numbers.

It certainly makes the unseeded of the two players the favourite to progress and the layers look right on the mark as far as that is concerned.

I do think the serve is going to be all important to both players with their relatively poor return numbers on the grass courts. The edge actually may go to Shapovalov when it comes to the return despite Chardy having the superior grass court season, but much of his success has been behind some very, very impressive service numbers and I think that is going to be the key for his success in this First Round match.

I have no doubt that Shapovalov is the more naturally talented of the two players and he will have the better career, but I think Chardy will have the ability to put plenty of scoreboard pressure on his younger opponent when they play in the First Round. That will come with a strong serving day and I think it will be Chardy who progresses and I think he will be able to get past Shapovalov in three or four sets in this match.


Marius Copil-Robin Haase over 39.5 games: The first thing you have to point out when you are making a selection like this is a straight sets win for either Marius Copil or Robin Haase will mean the pick is a losing selection.

Personally I cannot see how this match will end in straight sets when you think of the way the two players have been able to serve on the grass courts while also possessing weak return games which suggests a long day in the office is ahead of them.

There really isn't a lot more to say with this selection with the chances of seeing tie-breakers looking extremely high when you think Copil has won 33% or fewer points on the return of serve in each of the last four seasons while Haase's return numbers are winning 33% or fewer himself.

Neither player has been able to build up some momentum when it comes to the return of serve to produce a huge amount of breaks of serve and it would be a big surprise if there are a lot of breaks in this First Round match.

That is backed up by the impressive service numbers both Copil and Haase have produced on the grass courts and both are very tough to break on the surface. It is made all the tougher when you think of the limited return games they are both facing and I think this number of games is covered fairly comfortably as long as we do see four sets played between them.

Looking at the results both Haase and Copil have had over the past month suggests they are going to show some fight even in the heat of London in this First Round match. I can't see either going away too quickly and I think there is every chance that they will combine for at least the number of games to cover this line.


Mischa Zverev - 1.5 sets v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I am guessing there are still one or two fans out there that love old school tennis with the serve-volley game their favoured type of tennis. Not many play that much these days, but this is the match for those fans as I expect both Mischa Zverev and Pierre-Hugues Herbert to make their way to the net at every opportunity.

Zverev is very much known for the successes he has had in the last eighteen months behind his serve-volley style while Herbert is a very competent Doubles player and is able to bring that volleying onto the Singles court.

I definitely would give the edge to Zverev on the face of things but there is a question mark about him and that is because he won his first title on Saturday in Eastbourne. Most may say that should be a boost in the confidence for the German to take into Wimbledon, but a long week in the soaring temperatures of the United Kingdom can sap the legs and this is a match in which Zverev won't be getting a lot of rhythm.

And there is no doubting that Herbert is very comfortable on the grass courts even as a Singles player. The serve is a big weapon for Herbert and will see him rush through a few games, but I do think the limited return game may be a hindrance for the Frenchman in trying to win this match.

I don't think Zverev has been serving as well as he would like, but he has produced a strong 85% hold percentage in the last month and that has allowed him to take a few swings off the return. I also have to respect the fact that Zverev is the stronger returner in this match and he has improved his percentage of points won against the serve from 37% in 2016 to 40% in 2018 and that is despite facing some very strong servers in his matches.

The key for Zverev is going to be getting enough racquets on the big serves of Herbert and punishing any second serves he gets a look at. As long as he hasn't left something on the court both emotionally and physically after winning in Eastbourne I do like Zverev to win this match with his stronger returning game being a difference maker in what is expected to be tight sets.

The small improvement in the return may not be a lot in terms of actually percentages, but that makes a huge impact in the ability to break serve and I think Zverev is able to get through this match in three or four sets.


Damir Dzumhur v Maximilian Marterer: In the years ahead I can see Maximilian Marterer being a player who could be a dangerous threat at Wimbledon if he can just improve his game a touch. He is certainly young enough to do that and has the tools to do well on the grass courts, but his first appearance at this tournament could be a short one.

He faces a title winner from last week at ATP Antalya where Damir Dzumhur perhaps surprised with his success. You wouldn't really expect Dzumhur to be a serious contender on the grass courts, but he gets the best out of his game and the title win in Turkey will give him belief going into this First Round match.

There is a concern about the travel that Dzumhur would have had to do having won the title in Antalya on Saturday and playing here in London on Tuesday, but I think he should be alright even with the travel factored in.

In each of the last two seasons on the grass Dzumhur has found something from his serve although it is a very small sample of matches we are talking about. However I still have to respect the fact that he has found a way to win a huge amount of the points behind serve which has made what has looked a vulnerable serve a little stronger all around.

The key for Dzumhur and his success on the Tour will always be about how well he returns the ball and that was the reason he won the title in Antalya last week. In the last three matches there he really started seeing the ball very big, but it will be a challenge against the Marterer serve which is a huge part of the German's game.

There is not doubt that is going to be a tough task for Dzumhur when you look at the strong numbers Marterer can produce on the grass. He hasn't had a lot of competitive tennis on the surface, but close losses to Nick Kyrgios and Yuichi Sugita this past month are not bad losses and Marterer isn't far away from putting some wins together on the grass.

It makes him a dangerous opponent if Dzumhur is feeling any effects from the long week in Antalya. I certainly think this is going to be a close one, but Dzumhur's performances may give him the momentum to take into Wimbledon and I am going to back him to win this match even if it perhaps takes four or even five sets.


Mikhail Kukushkin - 1.5 sets v Vasek Pospisil: The run to the Wimbledon Quarter Final in 2015 looks to have been the high point in Vasek Pospisil's career as he has struggled to really compete consistently on the main Tour level since then. While still being Ranked high enough to Qualify for the Grand Slams, Pospisil has been asked to work his way into the main Tour events outside of those and it has been tough for the Canadian.

You would think the grass courts would absolutely favour the Pospisil game considering the serve he has been blessed with, but very little outside of that shot can be admired. He isn't as bad as I am suggesting, but I do think Pospisil is the kind of player who will have a really hard time relying on his ability off the ground if his serve is not working as he would like.

For the most part it does come good on the grass courts and he will feel that is very important against an opponent like Mikhail Kukushkin who has produced some very strong return numbers on the grass. It may only be a sample size of seven matches over the last thirteen months, but Kukushkin won at least 40% of points on the return of serve in 2017 and has upped that to 44% this past month.

That helped Kukushkin reach the Semi Final last week in Eastbourne where he knocked off some solid opponents like Alex De Minaur and Kyle Edmund before finding Mischa Zverev a little too good. Vasek Pospisil will try the serve-volley tactics too so facing Zverev may aid Kukushkin here even if this serve is coming from the orthodox right hander.

It is the Kukushkin serve that does worry me a little bit as he had to save a host of break points in every match he played on the grass over the last month. He has faced at least seven break points in each of the five matches played on the grass in 2018 and that kind of pressure can be tough to deal with especially if Pospisil is serving as well as he can.

However I think Kukushkin will be aided by the fact that Pospisil has proved himself to be something of a limited returner on this surface. Last year was an exceptional year for Pospisil aided by playing some weaker opposition in Qualifying matches, but generally he does struggle to break serve on the grass and I think that will be the key to the outcome of this one.

While I expect Pospisil to have some chances to break serve, I also think Kukushkin's return game will put pressure on the Canadian. The confidence has to be with Kukushkin after his Semi Final run in Eastbourne and I think he gets this done in three or four sets as he makes his way through to a potential Second Round match against Rafael Nadal.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Robin Haase Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Damir Dzumhur @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yuichi Sugita - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato + 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-2, + 4.14 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.5% Yield)