The WTA Finals got underway on Sunday and the two matches were both won by the underdogs as Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova stole a march on Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki.
Unlike every other tournament played on the Tennis Tour this does not mean the end of the event for Kvitova and Wozniacki, but they have been put in a precarious spot after both were beaten in straight sets and both won six games in their defeats.
While still alive now, the losing player on Tuesday is going to be virtually out of the WTA Finals, but the winner will stay alive and look to move through to the Semi Final when they play their final match on Thursday.
Those four players make up the White Group, but it is the Red Group which gets underway on Monday. All of the players in this Group have to believe in their ability to make it through to the Semi Finals in Singapore later this week, but that also means there is some pressure to perform from the start of the tournament instead of needing to play catch up.
First up is the match between the last two US Open Champions who are also making their debut in the WTA Finals and that is before the current Wimbledon Champion takes to the court.
On Monday it is also the start of the two ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna which begin First Round matches having seen the Qualifying matches played over the weekend. There are some big names from the ATP Tour who will be playing this week as we get closer to the end of the 2018 season and places at the World Tour Finals are still up for grabs.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have won the last two US Open titles and both Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens have deserved their place in the WTA Finals after strong showings in 2018.
Last season it was difficult for Sloane Stephens to follow up her success at the US Open which really came out of left field after the American had only recently returned from an injury. It took a few months for Stephens to appreciate her new status on the Tour and the target that had appeared on her back for other players, but she began to cope earlier in 2018 and that has seen her have success including reaching another Grand Slam Final.
Stephens was a surprise winner of the US Open in 2017 and her opponent Naomi Osaka has to be considered a surprise winner of the US Open in 2018. The Final may be best remembered for the Serena Williams meltdown which overshadowed Osaka's win, but the composure shown by the youngster that day should have given us an idea as to how she would react as a Grand Slam Champion.
So many other players have won a maiden Grand Slam and struggled to cope with the pressure that comes with reaching that kind of level. However that has not been the case for Osaka who has produced a lot of wins during the Asian hard court swing and who should be happy to compete in Singapore on the hard courts which look to be her most dangerous surface up to now.
The last couple of months has really seen Osaka pick up her game and she has been able to break down opponents with her big hitting. Her numbers on the hard courts have been impressive throughout 2018 and that makes Osaka very dangerous here in Singapore, but those numbers have taken a sharp upturn over the last six weeks since the beginning of the US Open.
In that time Osaka has improved the percentage of points won on both first and second serve while also improving her returning numbers. All of that doesn't bode well for Stephens who has 2-4 record on the hard courts since the end of the US Open.
The American has won a title in Miami and reached the Final in Montreal as well as the Quarter Final in the defence of the US Open. That is impressive stuff from Stephens, but the season has not wound down as she would like and I think Osaka can get the better of her here with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: A relatively poor 2017 saw Angelique Kerber miss out on playing in Singapore, but the Wimbledon Champion is back this year and this is the kind of hard court that should suit her game.
You would think winning Wimbledon would mean Kerber is coming into the WTA Finals with some confidence and comfort with her game. That may not exactly be the case after the decision was made to part with Coach Wim Fissette just days before the final tournament of the 2018 season was due to begin and I wonder if that is going to be a negative factor for her.
At least Kerber has some experience of this tournament format which is not the case for the other three players in the White Group. First up for Kerber is Kiki Bertens who has benefited from the decisions made by Simona Halep and Serena Williams to skip the WTA Finals with injuries ending their seasons earlie than expected.
Getting to the WTA Finals is a huge achievement for Kiki Bertens who has produced some solid tennis outside of the clay courts in the 2018 season. Her numbers on this surface had not been the most impressive earlier in 2018, but she has been very strong over the last three months and Bertens has regularly played tight matches with Kerber.
There is every chance this could be another very competitive match as long as Bertens isn't affected by nerves in playing alongside the top eight players for the first time. It shouldn't be something that bothers the Dutchwoman and a strong serving day should see her keep this one close against Kerber who has not played a lot of tennis over the last seven weeks.
Like Kerber, I think Bertens is going to appreciate the conditions in Singapore and this could be enough games for her to be competitive.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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Showing posts with label White Group. Show all posts
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Monday, 22 October 2018
Friday, 28 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 28th)
The Red Group in the WTA Finals was completed on Thursday and it might be something of a surprise to see Dominika Cibulkova make it through to the Semi Final having begun the day with two defeats in the Group. She can thank a focused Angelique Kerber for coming out and playing with total professionalism too as Madison Keys just needed to win a set to make it through to the Semi Final at Cibulkova's expense, but Kerber recovered a second set break deficit to come through in two straight sets.
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
Wednesday, 26 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 26th)
The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the line up for the Semi Final begins to take shape, although we are yet to get an official Semi Finalist. That might change on Wednesday when the White Group gets through their second round robin of matches after two tight opening matches in the Group.
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
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