The second international break of the 2018/19 season has come to an end and we now have another month of big Football matches to come both domestically and in Europe.
There are four Rounds of Premier League Football to come between the two international breaks in October and November, while two Rounds of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches will begin to separate those teams making it through to the Knock Out Rounds and those who are going to be left disappointed.
It is a big time for clubs as the season settles into a rhythm and there are big games right out of the international break with ramifications at the top and bottom of the Premier League.
I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the win over Newcastle United which may have done little more than paper over the obvious cracks at Old Trafford. You can read that here.
Earlier this season I mentioned I was going to start adding Fantasy Notes to the selections made in the Premier League each round of games played.
I have decided I will pick who I believe will be the 'Fantasy Star' for each fixture and also an alternative selection.
I am still fine-tuning how I want to this to work going forward, but at the moment the 'Star' will be the player I believe can pick up the most points and bonus points from the official Premier League Fantasy Game .
The alternative selection will be a player who I think can have a positive return from each fixture, but bare with me as I look to find the best way to approach the increasingly popular Fantasy element.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: The noise around Jose Mourinho would have been deafening over the last two weeks if Manchester United had not turned around their Premier League game with Newcastle United and come away with a win after trailing 0-2 inside ten minutes.
Some may look to the result as the chance for Manchester United to turn the corner on what has been a very difficult start to the season, but personally I can't help feel it is nothing more than papering over significant cracks at the club.
The games between the October and November international breaks will tell us a lot about where Manchester United stand as they face Premier League trips to Chelsea and Manchester City as well as a Champions League double header with Juventus.
With 5 points already between Manchester United and the top four it is a big month ahead and this looks a very difficult away game facing them as they come out of the international break.
Chelsea have joined Manchester City and Liverpool on 20 points after a very positive start under Maurizio Sarri and they look to have the best Premier League player in their side. Eden Hazard may have stated his wishes to play under Mourinho again, but he could put another nail in the coffin of the manager at Manchester United with a big performance on Saturday.
As much as I would like to be wrong, it is very difficult to see anything but a Chelsea win on Saturday having beaten Manchester United 3 times in a row at Stamford Bridge while Jose Mourinho has managed the latter. Manchester United haven't scored in any of those trips to this part of West London and I am not convinced that things are all good and proper after one win.
The home team have been creating plenty of chances and showed in two games against Liverpool that they are capable of playing very well against the better teams in the Premier League. If Manchester United are even half as poor defensively as they were against West Ham United and Newcastle United in recent League games I do really worry for them here and the only suggestion for this game is backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Manchester United have conceded three times in losses at Brighton and West Ham United away from home as well as the same number in a home loss to Tottenham Hotspur. Add in the fact that a goal shy Newcastle United scored twice against Manchester United and could have had more and I just can't see the side containing Chelsea here.
Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- Arguably the best player in the Premier League and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup Final against Manchester United. All good things from Chelsea are going through the Belgian.
Alternative: David Luiz- a key figure at centre half for Chelsea who have kept clean sheets in all 3 games against Jose Mourinho's Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. Potential free-kick taker too.
Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: You can't be anything but impressed with the start made by Bournemouth to the new Premier League season and any fears they would be dragged into a relegation battle have to be easing in each passing week.
They can take another big step towards the 40 point mark this weekend and that will still be the aim for Eddie Howe who knows how important it is to keep Bournemouth in the Premier League. However the start made to the season means Howe can also put some stock into giving Bournemouth a real shot at winning one of the Cup competitions.
For now the concentration will be on trying to win this derby game against a Southampton team who have not scored in their last 3 Premier League games.
Mark Hughes has to be feeling some pressure with the owners of Southampton unlikely to accept another battle against relegation from the top flight. The poor run of form in the League has seen Southampton slump to just outside the bottom three, but there is still something to like about a team that has the likes of Charlie Austin and Danny Ings to score the goals to fire them up the table.
I do think Southampton can create chances here against this Bournemouth defence which is anything but watertight. On the other hand it would be a surprise if the attacking football used by Eddie Howe doesn't pay dividends up the other end too and the amount of goals Bournemouth have been scoring makes them very dangerous.
Both teams look capable of hurting the other and I do believe we will see goals in this League game.
I give Bournemouth the slight edge in the fixture on Saturday, but they don't look like a team that will be keeping a lot of clean sheets. With the chances Southampton have been able to fashion I think they can score here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this fixture.
Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- both Ryan Fraser and Josh King are carrying knocks, but Bournemouth score plenty of goals and Callum Wilson is pushing for an England call up.
Alternative: Danny Ings- Southampton have been better away from home and Danny Ings likely leading the line against an opponent who are far from defensively secure.
Cardiff City v Fulham Pick: To call a fixture a relegation six pointer in the middle of October is perhaps overstating things, but you have to feel this is a very important fixture for both Cardiff City and Fulham.
After promotion from the Championship, both clubs have struggled in the Premier League and I would be surprised if both of these teams were good enough to avoid the drop back down a level.
That could mean that the two League games between Cardiff City and Fulham are going to be all important in determining which of the teams is able to finish out of the bottom three positions. I do think both Neil Warnock and Slavisa Jokanovic will understand how imperative it is for their respective teams to come out of the international break with a big positive result and I think it could be a game filled with some real tension.
Despite that I do think the players will be able to express themselves and create chances to score goals.
Cardiff City have been a little goal-shy this season but they have created some big chances and a little more composure is all they have needed. They should be able to create more against a Fulham defence that has been looking extremely vulnerable as they try and find the balance between attack and defence in the move up to the Premier League level.
On the other side I also believe Fulham can create chances as they have in the majority of their League games so far. There are some talented players who like to get forward and Cardiff City have conceded at least twice in their last 4 games at home in all competitions.
Last season they shared out six goals here in a League fixture and I think the two teams will create chances and score goals in this one. The 1-1 is a potentially concerning score, but neither Cardiff City or Fulham have defended anywhere near to the level they would have liked and the points on offer should see the teams take risks to win this one.
Fantasy Star: Kenneth Zohore- Cardiff City have struggled in front of goal, but they are creating chances and Kenneth Zohore may be the best striker they have.
Alternative: Ryan Sessegnon- it hasn't been the introduction to the Premier League Sessegnon would have wanted, but Fulham play attacking football and he did score home and away against Cardiff City last season.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: If Riyad Mahrez had scored his penalty at Anfield two weeks go Manchester City would have been a short priced favourite to retain the Premier League title they won last season.
Instead Mahrez blazed over the bar and that means there are three teams tied together on 20 points with Manchester City leading the way on goal difference. They might have been knocked off top spot by the time this game kicks off on Saturday afternoon, but Pep Guardiola won't be worrying about the League table and instead looking to get the best out of his players.
The squad looks to be getting healthier, but there is always a question mark as to how teams will react out of an international break.
In saying that I would be very surprised if Manchester City can't get the better of a Burnley team whose results have picked up but who have yet to really hit the heights in terms of performances that they did last season.
Teams are creating a lot of chances against Burnley and that would be a real worry for me if I was a fan of the club. All credit has to be given to Burnley for finding a way to pick up points in games where they have not been at their best, but they will have to be ten times better defensively to keep Manchester City at bay.
Manchester City potentially have Kevin De Bruyne back this week to offer an additional threat to opponents and they have already been creating a host of chances in games they have played in recent weeks. Pep Guardiola has not always been happy with the lack of composure shown in the final third, but Manchester City look like a team who will score plenty of goals even if they are not taking all of the chances that come their way.
Last season Manchester City beat a confident and more solid Burnley team by three goal margins in both the Premier League and FA Cup games they hosted against them. With this current Burnley team offering up a lot of chances to opponents, they are going to need Joe Hart to want to prove something to his former club to keep Manchester City at bay.
I simply don't know if Hart will be able to do that and I will back the home team to cover a big Asian Handicap.
Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- strong record against Burnley and been well rested the last two weeks and ready to lead the line for Manchester City. Seems an obvious choice.
Alternative: Benjamin Mendy- Fabian Delph has been ruled out so Mendy wil likely have the left back spot and is good for an assist or two in this attacking line up. Bonus is the potential for a clean sheet too.
Newcastle United v Brighton Pick: This looks to be one of the more intriguing Premier League games of the weekend as Newcastle United try and earn their first win of the season against what is likely to be a relegation rival.
It has been a very difficult start for Newcastle United, but that always looked like it could be the case when you consider they have already played five of the teams that finished in the top six last season. The home defeat to Leicester City would have hurt, but Newcastle United are about to enter into a much more positive set of fixtures for them.
Confidence is going to be a big factor for Newcastle United, but I was impressed with the way they approached their game at Manchester United two weeks ago. Like manager Rafa Benitez said after the defeat, I do think Newcastle United can win plenty of games against the lesser lights in the Premier League if they can match the intensity they showed at Old Trafford.
However playing with that intensity in a nothing to lose situation against Manchester United is different than when the expectation will be on the players to perform. That is going to be the case against a Brighton team who have been very poor travellers since being promoted to the Premier League.
You have to think Chris Hughton is going to look for his team to be well organised and difficult to break down. He will believe his Brighton team can do enough damage from set pieces and the counter attack to hurt Newcastle United, but The Seagulls are simply not as strong away from home as they are at the Amex Stadium.
Last season there were two tight games played out by these teams and I do think we will see something similar here where one goal could be enough to win the game.
6 of the last 7 between these teams has seen at least one of the teams fail to score and that will be my selection from this Premier League game.
Fantasy Star: Kenedy- scored at Old Trafford and could be the key to unlocking the Brighton defence in this fixture.
Alternative: Martin Dubravka- Newcastle United have not been as strong defensively as they would have liked, but the fixture list has been about as tough as it comes. The goalkeeper could be a key reason for a second clean sheet this season.
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have to consider the start to the 2018/19 season to be a mixed one for the clubs as they get set for the first of two meetings in October.
Later this month the teams will meet again in the League Cup Fourth Round but the Premier League clash will likely be more important for both Manuel Pellegrini and Mauricio Pochettino.
Injuries are really hurting both squads, but I think West Ham United are the more settled of the two teams with the potential absence of both Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen a real blow for Tottenham Hotspur.
Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 League games in a row despite the injuries in the squad, but they have not been overly convincing against Brighton, Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City. This is expected to be a tougher challenge than against those teams especially as West Ham United have recently held Chelsea and beaten Manchester United at the London Stadium.
The Hammers have been producing a much more consistent attacking threat over the last six weeks and I think that can be key against a London rival that the fans will love to get one over. Last season Tottenham Hotspur did win 2-3 here, but they had previously lost 3 of 4 visits to West Ham United and I think the healthy start with the home team on the Asian Handicap can't be ignored.
I am surprised to see Tottenham Hotspur as an odds on favourite to win at a ground where two big teams have already stumbled this season. West Ham United have the kind of players who can step up their level against better teams and backing the home team with the start looks the call here.
Fantasy Star: Marko Arnautovic- the home team play much better against better opposition and the Austrian is a key to that having scored for his country during the internationals.
Alternative: Christian Eriksen- the Dane is expected back this week and Tottenham Hotspur have missed him. If they are to win here Christian Eriksen will be the key to it.
Wolves v Watford Pick: There is so much to admire about the way Wolves have gone about their business in the Premier League and the layers clearly agree by having them at odds on to win this fixture.
That has been the case in home games against Burnley and Southampton too and Wolves have not disappointed with victories in both while keeping clean sheets. Both have been deserved wins as Wolves have just been guilty of perhaps lacking some composure in the final third which has prevented those victories coming by big margins.
That could be a real problem for Watford who are going to be missing three key defenders for this trip to the Midlands. They are coming off an embarrassing 0-4 home defeat to Bournemouth which saw Watford trailing 0-3 by half time, but for the most part Watford have been playing with some confidence and with some quality football produced.
Watford have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions and they have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games. Some of those have been a little unfortunate, but Watford have just been struggling defensively as opponents have been able to create some quality chances against them.
This Wolves team should be able to do the same with the intensity and attacking quality they have produced at Molineux. They do need to produce a little more composure in the final third to make life a little easier for themselves, but I think Wolves can do that against a Watford team missing key defenders and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- he has been influential in Wolves' start to the season and it really feels a matter of time before Raul Jimenez grabs himself a brace with the chances this team create.
Alternative: Matt Doherty- the wing back has been a key reason Wolves are able to create the chances mentioned. He scored last time out at Crystal Palace and could be good for assists and/or a clean sheet.
Huddersfield Town v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp had been bemoaning the international break after the draw with Manchester City and his mood won't have been improved when news came back that a number of his key players have suffered knocks.
It sounds like Virgil Van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane have avoided long-term problems, although Mane could miss out on Saturday's trip to Huddersfield Town.
Liverpool may not have won any of their last 4 games in all competitions, but it is not something their fans will be overly concerned about. They still have 20 points on the board to be level with Manchester City for the Premier League lead, but Liverpool could point to a much tougher fixture list than their rivals have played.
Now the fixture list looks to ease up for them and Liverpool should be far too good for a Huddersfield Town team who have struggled for goals and already suffered fairly comfortable losses to Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur at home.
Huddersfield Town have not scored in any of their last 6 home games in the Premier League and the style of play should be one that Liverpool are comfortable dealing with. That proved to be the case last season as Liverpool won both League games by the same 3-0 scoreline and I think it would be some surprise if Liverpool are not able to win here.
I think it could be more comfortable than that with Liverpool likely to match the margins both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur secured here by winning by at least two goals. Backing Liverpool on the Asian Handicap to do that is the selection as Liverpool get back to winning ways ahead of another busy week for the club.
Fantasy Star: Roberto Firmino- two of the front three were banged up on international duty but are not expected to miss out this weekend. However I will pick Roberto Firmino who scored at home and away against Huddersfield Town last season.
Alternative: Andrew Robertson- clean sheet possibility and an attacking intent from left back could see the Scottish captain find an assist too. Joe Gomez or Trent Alexander-Arnold are cheaper options in the defence, but could be one or the other this weekend.
Everton v Crystal Palace Pick: The television cameras head to Goodison Park on Sunday for a game between two clubs who will be expecting top half Premier League finishes but who have perhaps underachieved to open the season.
All of the momentum had been with Everton going into the international break as they won back to back League games while Crystal Palace had lost consecutive League games.
There has to be a little concern from Roy Hodgson that his team are not scoring as many goals as he would like and they are about to head into a four game stretch where they will play teams that finished in the top six last season.
Christian Benteke may not have been prolific for Crystal Palace over the last fifteen months, but he offers a focal point to the attack and his absence has been notable. Wilfried Zaha continues to play at a good level, but I do think he is more effective with someone like Benteke in the team and only Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City have scored fewer goals than Crystal Palace.
Everton's defensive issues may offer more chances to The Eagles, but Marco Silva's attacking intentions as a manager has also made them dangerous going forward. The side are creating plenty of chances in recent games and Everton will feel they can do the same against this Crystal Palace team despite the fact that Roy Hodgson's men have been pretty good defensively for the most part this season.
I do think Everton will get the better of Crystal Palace in this fixture and they can make it back to back home wins over their visitors having beaten them 3-1 here last season. There should be enough of an attacking threat from Everton to be able to score twice and that may not be easy for Crystal Palace to match considering their own issues in front of goal.
In their last away League game Crystal Palace struggled to contain Bournemouth and I will back Everton to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Fantasy Star: Richarlison- I like Everton's chances this weekend and the Brazilian can continue his early season form by being influential to that outcome.
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- he might be a little more expensive in the Fantasy game, but Sigurdsson has got four in four for Everton and is always a threat from set pieces.
Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: Any time a team puts together a 9 game winning run in all competitions they have to be respected and you can guarantee the players are excited about going to work.
That is what Arsenal are enjoying right now and it is going to be tough for Leicester City to slow them down, but I do think The Gunners have not been as strong as their results would indicate.
Where Arsenal have been enjoying success is the clinical finishing they have been producing in front of goal. They have some quality attacking players who are making sure that any chances are being gobbled up and that is something that may continue against Leicester City who have not been good enough defensively for Claude Puel's liking.
I do think Arsenal will produce some quality going forward, but Leicester City have to feel there are holes to expose the other way. The home team could be missing some key defenders and they have already been giving up some big chances to opponents but Arsenal have not been punished as they perhaps should have been.
Leicester City will feel they can be more clinical than some of the other clubs that Arsenal have played of late and that confidence will come from scoring at least twice in 3 straight away Premier League games. They also scored at Manchester United and have narrow losses to the 20 time English Champions and also to Liverpool this season.
In both games Leicester City have been competitive and I think they will cause Arsenal some real problems on Monday Night Football so getting the hook with the visitors on the Asian Handicap looks a good way to back a selection from this League game.
A one goal loss for Leicester City would still be a winner in that case and that will mean respecting the fact The Foxes have such a terrible record in this part of North London.
Leicester City may have lost 11 straight League games at Arsenal, but the last 5 of those have come by a single goal margin. Arsenal have needed to score in the 85th minute or later to win their last 3 at home against Leicester City and last season it was Leicester City who had been leading 2-3 here until the 83rd minute in a 4-3 defeat.
All credit has to be given to Arsenal for their strong run since the Chelsea loss in August, but Leicester City will have their chances here and I think they have enough in the final third to make sure they keep this game competitive.
Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- five consecutive League starts for Arsenal and has got three in three for The Gunners. Leads the line for a team who create plenty of chances.
Alternative: Jamie Vardy- well rested having called time on his England career and facing a team who have given up big chances defensively. The big threat for Leicester City who scored three times for them against Arsenal last season and a penalty taker too.
MY PICKS: Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (0 Units)
Bournemouth-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Brighton Both Teams to Score- No @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wolves - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Leicester City + 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
October Update: 14-13-1, + 1.32 Units (56 Units Staked, + 2.36% Yield)
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Showing posts with label October 20-22. Show all posts
Showing posts with label October 20-22. Show all posts
Saturday, 20 October 2018
Friday, 20 October 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (October 20-22)
There is plenty of football coming thick and fast between the October and November international breaks, although I will have to admit that I am going to be glad to see the end of the international games for several months after the next break.
After that it will be the run up to Christmas in what looks an especially busy time of the year for the English clubs who don't have a Winter Break. That issue is likely to make headlines again later in the year, but I love Christmas football even if I didn't agree with the Christmas Eve suggestions that were made for live games.
It might not have worked out as the fans have wanted though with the television companies wanting to show the games they have paid plenty of money to do so and that means the fans have some tough fixtures to negotiate.
For example the Arsenal vs Liverpool and Leicester City v Manchester United games that looked the most likely to be moved to Christmas Eve are now being played on Friday night and Saturday night respectively. That's not a major problem for the fans at home who will probably enjoy something better to watch than the trash TV that Christmas tends to be, but for fans travelling to the game that is arguably a bigger headache than having an early Sunday slot on Christmas Eve.
You can't win it all though and the television rights have been sold for a huge price so these games can be broadcasted and the second Christmas Eve was off the table, then it was always likely the match going fans were going to suffer anyway.
Last weekend saw Jose Mourinho criticised for the tactics employed in the Manchester United draw at Liverpool and I said I was going to write a short piece about that. You can read that here.
This week the Premier League kicks off on a Friday night with West Ham United hosting Brighton and there are four other live games to come over the next couple of days. After a rough opening to October, I am looking for a bounce back performance this weekend with a little more luck behind the picks being made.
West Ham United v Brighton Pick: The Premier League is back in action on Friday night this weekend as the television cameras pitch up in East London to see West Ham United host Brighton. This is a big game for the two clubs who are looking to move away from the bottom three having shown some toughness in recent weeks.
Both West Ham United and Brighton have proven to be tough to crack in recent weeks which has seen them start putting some points on the board to move out of the bottom three.
Out of the two teams West Ham United are dealing with the bigger expectations after investment in the summer transfer window. Slaven Bilic had been under pressure as manager, but the improved form since the injury list began to clear up has worked for West Ham United and even the absence of Andy Carroll won't be too much of a blow for the home team.
They should have plenty of the ball to try and break down a Brighton defence that has been well organised, but who have given up some chances away from home. Goals have been a real problem for Brighton all season and that has especially been the case away from home and could show up again this weekend.
West Ham United have been fairly well organised themselves and have shown some effectiveness in the final third that can't be ignored. They have also looked more comfortable at the London Stadium after the initial struggles in their new home and I think West Ham United will find their way to the three points in this one.
Chris Hughton will make Brighton tough to beat, but I do think they could struggle if they fall behind. The lack of goals simply cannot be ignored and I am going to back West Ham United to find a victory in this one and start their move back towards the top half of the Premier League table.
Chelsea v Watford Pick: There are a few worries at Stamford Bridge that this season is in danger of heading the same way as the 2015/16 season, although I don't personally think Chelsea are going down that road. The recent poor performances are clearly a concern, but Chelsea have not been helped by some big injuries in the squad and I do think they will bounce back sooner rather than later.
The 3-3 home draw with Roma in the Champions League means Chelsea have not won any of their last 3 games in all competitions, while they have lost back to back Premier League games as they have slipped to 9 points behind Manchester City. That will knock the confidence of any squad of players, but Chelsea will feel hard work will get them back on the right track.
They will need to work hard on Saturday lunchtime when they take on Watford in the live television affair, but the two goals from Eden Hazard and the return of Alvaro Morata on Wednesday has to give them some encouragement.
However Chelsea have not played as well at home as they have on their travels for much of this season and they are now facing a confident Watford team who came from behind to beat Arsenal last week. Marco Silva is getting a tune out of his squad and they have looked very effective away from home where Watford have scored twice in each of their 4 away games in the Premier League this season.
None of those games have been played at a team in the top nine in the Premier League though and that should mean Watford are in for a different test this weekend. They are rested though and the style of play looks suited to away games especially when facing an opponent who are perhaps a little short of confidence of their own.
It is hard to oppose Chelsea as the more likely winner in this one, but Watford could trouble them at the back. I am not sure Watford can keep Chelsea from scoring in this one with the way they were defending in their games with Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal this season, but they have the pace and quality in the final third to trouble Chelsea too.
These teams have met 4 times since Watford returned to the top flight and 3 of those have seen both teams score including both League games last season. Both games at Stamford Bridge have also seen both teams score and I think Watford can contribute on Saturday.
Both teams to score can be backed at close to odds against quotes and I will look for that to be the outcome of this one.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: It is a tough part of the season for any club that has to play as many away games in succession as Manchester United have had to, but they have gotten through the two tougher road games at Liverpool and Benfica. In those games Manchester United had to grind out results, but in this one they will feel they can express themselves a little more.
Huddersfield Town are not going to be a pushover for any opponent they face, but I do think the style of play is one that the better clubs in the Premier League will exploit. They want to use David Wagner's style to play the ball out of the back and press from the front, but the quality of the top teams in the Premier League can expose the vulnerabilities of that system.
That was highlighted by a Tottenham Hotspur team who won 0-4 here last month and who were leading 0-3 by half time. Manchester United have shown they can really put the 'weaker' teams in the Premier League to the sword this season and I can see Jose Mourinho asking for a more positive display than what was required at Liverpool and Benfica.
The lack of goals in the home squad is a real concern for Wagner and Huddersfield Town who have scored once in their last 7 games in all competitions. Now they have to try and breach a well organised Manchester United defence and I am not sure that is going to happen here.
Instead I think Manchester United will earn their second away win of the week and they are likely to do that with a clean sheet. However I want to back Manchester United to produce an attacking display that will please the fans and I think they will create chances against a Huddersfield Town team who have just lost some confidence in recent weeks.
Manchester United have won comfortably at Swansea City and CSKA Moscow already this season and I think they can do that at the John Smith's Stadium on Saturday. Injuries mean Jose Mourinho might not be able to rotate the squad as he would have wished, but I think the players had a relatively comfortable night on Wednesday in Lisbon and I think the likes of Anthony Martial, Juan Mata, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Romelu Lukaku can create the chances to help Manchester United win this by a couple of goals at least.
Huddersfield Town have been better at home, but I think they will struggle to contain Manchester United and I like the away team to cover the Asian Handicap.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: It is no surprise that Manchester City are such strong favourites to win this game this weekend when you think of the way they have not just been winning games, but hammering teams. That has been the case at the Etihad Stadium where Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 5 consecutive wins and the layers are expecting another one sided, big win on Saturday.
That could easily happen with the way Manchester City have been playing, but I can't help think Burnley have been disrespected considering how they have performed so far this season. I mean this is a team that has won at Chelsea and drawn at both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, while Sean Dyche's men have only lost 1 of their last 18 away Premier League games by more than a single goal margin.
Burnley will be well organised and look to frustrate Manchester City, especially as they have had a week to prepare for this fixture while their hosts were playing a tough Champions League game.
Pep Guardiola's team have shown they can break down and wear down teams who want to sit in and defend in numbers and they have been beating teams by wide margins. That makes it a risk to oppose Manchester City, but I do think Burnley are getting a big start on the Asian Handicap when you think of the toughness they have shown away from home this season.
They have also shown they have a goal in the side and I do think they can cause a couple of problems of their own from set pieces and also when creating quick turnovers.
It will never feel easy to oppose Manchester City in their current form, but I do think Burnley can give them one of their tougher games of the last six weeks. They won't go toe to toe like Napoli did with some success, but Burnley won't panic if they do fall behind but will continue to set up to make life difficult for Manchester City and I think the belief in the system means they will be confident in keeping things tight enough.
Manchester City are much improved from last season, but they did have their troubles with Burnley and I think that may be the case on Saturday. Anything other than a Manchester City win would be an upset, but I think Burnley can at least make this competitive and I will back the away team with a start on the Asian Handicap.
Swansea City v Leicester City Pick: It might only be October but this feels like a big game between Swansea City and Leicester City who will be desperate for the three points to just start putting some distance between themselves and the bottom three.
This was expected to be another difficult season for Swansea City who had to sell Gylfi Sigurdsson in the summer transfer window. A lack of goals continues to be an issue for Swansea City although Tammy Abraham is trying to change that for them, while the bigger concern has to be the poor form at the Liberty Stadium.
Beating Huddersfield Town is a positive step in the right direction and now they host a Leicester City team who have decided to sack a second manager in the space of eight months. Craig Shakespeare might have been fortunate to be given the top job in the first place and the owners of Leicester City have bigger ambitions than merely surviving in the top flight.
Goals have been a problem for Leicester City too and it is pointing to a fixture that may not feature too many goals. Both Swansea City and Leicester City have had their issues in front of goal and the situation of the fixture should mean that neither team is wanting to take too many risks in this one.
A single goal could be good enough to win this, but picking that winner is much more difficult. Instead I will simply look for the game to feature two or fewer goals which has been a feature of the recent Swansea City and Leicester City games.
Backing that to happen would have resulted in a winner in 6 of the last 7 Swansea City games as well as in 4 of the last 5 Leicester City games. 6 of the last 7 between these clubs in Swansea have also ended with two or fewer goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome of this fixture this weekend.
Southampton v West Brom Pick: You always seem to know what to expect whenever a Tony Pulis side takes to the field and I wouldn't think West Brom will change their system too much for this one either. Pulis will want his team to be hard to beat and to try and frustrate the hosts in this one and I expect his team to be set out in exactly that manner.
It is much more difficult to know what to expect out of this Southampton team who can really struggle for goals at times. They may have scored twice last week, but that only matched the same number of goals Southampton had scored in their previous 6 games combined and I do think they could have a tough time breaking down West Brom.
There is no doubt that the issues in the final third are the ones that fans tend to focus on, but Mauricio Pellegrino has to be wondering what has happened to Southampton defensively. They conceded twice to Newcastle United last Sunday which means Southampton have conceded that number in 4 of their last 5 home games in all competitions.
You may not think West Brom are capable of exploiting those defensive vulnerabilities, but this is a team that has some pace on the counter attack and who seem to make the most of their opportunities when they do arrive. And The Baggies certainly have enough to be respected more than they are in this one considering Southampton have been priced at fairly strong odds on to win this live fixture.
I can't have that from a team who had failed to score in 3 consecutive home games prior to the 2-2 draw with Newcastle United and I certainly don't think Southampton win this one easily if they do earn the victory. There is every chance a strong West Brom defensive showing can frustrate the home team for long enough to allow The Baggies to perhaps hit them on the counter attack, and I don't think this Tony Pulis team will be blown away by too many teams in and around them.
West Brom were crushed 3-1 at Brighton, but I have to wonder if Southampton have the goals in the side to do that. Backing West Brom with the start on the Asian Handicap should at least return half of the stake here, but with every chance of a full pay out if Tony Pulis' men can earn any kind of result at St Mary's.
Everton v Arsenal Pick: At the start of the season I was critical of the transfers that Everton had made and could not understand why so many were not only tipping them to improve on last season, but to actually go on and challenge for a Champions League berth for next season. Even though they have fallen short of that as I pretty much expected, the underachievement of Everton is a real worry for the fans and for Ronald Koeman.
The issue I had with the Everton transfers was simply that I didn't think any of them improved the starting eleven which had lost Romelu Lukaku. Ross Barkley was another who was out of contention and the signings lacked pace which has been a real problem for Everton.
Defensively players like Ashley Williams and Phil Jagielka have declined, while Michael Keane is nothing like the player that was advertised as Everton have not really offered a lot of protection in front of the back four. There is an over-reliance on young players which is another surprise considering how much Everton have spent this summer and all around they have looked a poor team.
Ronald Koeman is under immense pressure as the manager of the club and he looks a little lost in trying to find the answers to get things turned around. It is no wonder he is long odds on to be the next manager to be sacked in the Premier League and a defeat on Sunday might be the end of his time at Goodison Park.
Everton have to show something, but Arsenal are coming in after being criticised by Troy Deeney for 'lacking cajones' which has to be a real embarrassment for the players. They may have won at Red Star Belgrade during the week, but it has been clear that this is the bigger game for Arsenal this week as Arsene Wenger tries to show his team are capable of winning the Premier League.
Arsenal do look miles away from Manchester City so any title challenge feels a long shot, but the players have to show more heart with the Deeney criticism likely to be ringing in their ears. The 3 losses in 4 away games is really disappointing, but Arsenal should have done better at Watford when leading 0-1 and missing some key chances before a controversial penalty turned the game on its head.
You have to say that this does feel the kind of game where Arsenal would come in a lay a dud, especially if recent years are any proof. That worries me, but Arsenal should not be odds against to beat Everton who have been struggling all over the field and whose fans are coming into the Stadium with nerves which transfer onto the pitch.
They haven't played well here in recent years, but Arsenal did beat Everton 0-2 at Goodison Park a couple of years ago. Last week at Watford they didn't have Alexis Sanchez or Aaron Ramsey and I think those two being back this week would be huge for the away side and I am going to back Arsenal to win this fixture and potentially end the Ronald Koeman reign at Goodison Park.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: Putting together a winning run at Wembley Stadium will be the best way for Tottenham Hotspur to consign all talk about a 'curse' to the rubbish bin and they are going for a third straight win here in all competitions. The 1-1 draw at Real Madrid during the week has given the fans plenty of confidence that Tottenham Hotspur can compete with the best teams in both at home and in Europe, but the tests keep coming for them.
The next couple of Premier League games see Tottenham Hotspur face Liverpool and Manchester United and Mauricio Pochettino will be looking to add four points to really ignite the season. That won't be easy and Tottenham Hotspur have to snap a recent poor run against Liverpool if they want to begin those two games with three points this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur have won none of their last 10 games against Liverpool in all competitions and did not win any of their last 4 League games at White Hart Lane against them. They will also have to respect the fact that Liverpool have a very good record against the top teams in the Premier League since Jurgen Klopp came in as manager.
Klopp was under a bit of pressure though as Liverpool have not been winning games as much as they would have wanted. A run of 1 win in 8 games in all competitions was ended emphatically with a 0-7 win at Maribor during the week in the Champions League, but Liverpool will be looking to get back on track in the Premier League where they have faltered of late.
The German manager shifted the blame onto Jose Mourinho for the goalless home draw with Manchester United last weekend, but his own tactics have to be questioned. Liverpool will also expect to have more space when travelling to Tottenham Hotspur who will be looking to get on the front foot themselves and that should play into the hands of the away team.
The performances against the top teams makes Liverpool very dangerous here and I do think they can earn a result against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not played as well as Wembley as they would have liked. Their team also put in a huge shift against Real Madrid while Liverpool coasted to a win in Slovenia, and I can see The Reds having the fresher legs in this one.
Tottenham Hotspur have lost to Chelsea at Wembley Stadium this season and failed to beat Burnley or Swansea City. I think they will have a tough time against Liverpool this weekend too, and I will back the visitors to earn a result here this weekend against a team they have had considerable success against in recent years.
MY PICKS: West Ham United@ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Watford Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City-Leicester City Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Brom + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
After that it will be the run up to Christmas in what looks an especially busy time of the year for the English clubs who don't have a Winter Break. That issue is likely to make headlines again later in the year, but I love Christmas football even if I didn't agree with the Christmas Eve suggestions that were made for live games.
It might not have worked out as the fans have wanted though with the television companies wanting to show the games they have paid plenty of money to do so and that means the fans have some tough fixtures to negotiate.
For example the Arsenal vs Liverpool and Leicester City v Manchester United games that looked the most likely to be moved to Christmas Eve are now being played on Friday night and Saturday night respectively. That's not a major problem for the fans at home who will probably enjoy something better to watch than the trash TV that Christmas tends to be, but for fans travelling to the game that is arguably a bigger headache than having an early Sunday slot on Christmas Eve.
You can't win it all though and the television rights have been sold for a huge price so these games can be broadcasted and the second Christmas Eve was off the table, then it was always likely the match going fans were going to suffer anyway.
Last weekend saw Jose Mourinho criticised for the tactics employed in the Manchester United draw at Liverpool and I said I was going to write a short piece about that. You can read that here.
This week the Premier League kicks off on a Friday night with West Ham United hosting Brighton and there are four other live games to come over the next couple of days. After a rough opening to October, I am looking for a bounce back performance this weekend with a little more luck behind the picks being made.
West Ham United v Brighton Pick: The Premier League is back in action on Friday night this weekend as the television cameras pitch up in East London to see West Ham United host Brighton. This is a big game for the two clubs who are looking to move away from the bottom three having shown some toughness in recent weeks.
Both West Ham United and Brighton have proven to be tough to crack in recent weeks which has seen them start putting some points on the board to move out of the bottom three.
Out of the two teams West Ham United are dealing with the bigger expectations after investment in the summer transfer window. Slaven Bilic had been under pressure as manager, but the improved form since the injury list began to clear up has worked for West Ham United and even the absence of Andy Carroll won't be too much of a blow for the home team.
They should have plenty of the ball to try and break down a Brighton defence that has been well organised, but who have given up some chances away from home. Goals have been a real problem for Brighton all season and that has especially been the case away from home and could show up again this weekend.
West Ham United have been fairly well organised themselves and have shown some effectiveness in the final third that can't be ignored. They have also looked more comfortable at the London Stadium after the initial struggles in their new home and I think West Ham United will find their way to the three points in this one.
Chris Hughton will make Brighton tough to beat, but I do think they could struggle if they fall behind. The lack of goals simply cannot be ignored and I am going to back West Ham United to find a victory in this one and start their move back towards the top half of the Premier League table.
Chelsea v Watford Pick: There are a few worries at Stamford Bridge that this season is in danger of heading the same way as the 2015/16 season, although I don't personally think Chelsea are going down that road. The recent poor performances are clearly a concern, but Chelsea have not been helped by some big injuries in the squad and I do think they will bounce back sooner rather than later.
The 3-3 home draw with Roma in the Champions League means Chelsea have not won any of their last 3 games in all competitions, while they have lost back to back Premier League games as they have slipped to 9 points behind Manchester City. That will knock the confidence of any squad of players, but Chelsea will feel hard work will get them back on the right track.
They will need to work hard on Saturday lunchtime when they take on Watford in the live television affair, but the two goals from Eden Hazard and the return of Alvaro Morata on Wednesday has to give them some encouragement.
However Chelsea have not played as well at home as they have on their travels for much of this season and they are now facing a confident Watford team who came from behind to beat Arsenal last week. Marco Silva is getting a tune out of his squad and they have looked very effective away from home where Watford have scored twice in each of their 4 away games in the Premier League this season.
None of those games have been played at a team in the top nine in the Premier League though and that should mean Watford are in for a different test this weekend. They are rested though and the style of play looks suited to away games especially when facing an opponent who are perhaps a little short of confidence of their own.
It is hard to oppose Chelsea as the more likely winner in this one, but Watford could trouble them at the back. I am not sure Watford can keep Chelsea from scoring in this one with the way they were defending in their games with Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal this season, but they have the pace and quality in the final third to trouble Chelsea too.
These teams have met 4 times since Watford returned to the top flight and 3 of those have seen both teams score including both League games last season. Both games at Stamford Bridge have also seen both teams score and I think Watford can contribute on Saturday.
Both teams to score can be backed at close to odds against quotes and I will look for that to be the outcome of this one.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: It is a tough part of the season for any club that has to play as many away games in succession as Manchester United have had to, but they have gotten through the two tougher road games at Liverpool and Benfica. In those games Manchester United had to grind out results, but in this one they will feel they can express themselves a little more.
Huddersfield Town are not going to be a pushover for any opponent they face, but I do think the style of play is one that the better clubs in the Premier League will exploit. They want to use David Wagner's style to play the ball out of the back and press from the front, but the quality of the top teams in the Premier League can expose the vulnerabilities of that system.
That was highlighted by a Tottenham Hotspur team who won 0-4 here last month and who were leading 0-3 by half time. Manchester United have shown they can really put the 'weaker' teams in the Premier League to the sword this season and I can see Jose Mourinho asking for a more positive display than what was required at Liverpool and Benfica.
The lack of goals in the home squad is a real concern for Wagner and Huddersfield Town who have scored once in their last 7 games in all competitions. Now they have to try and breach a well organised Manchester United defence and I am not sure that is going to happen here.
Instead I think Manchester United will earn their second away win of the week and they are likely to do that with a clean sheet. However I want to back Manchester United to produce an attacking display that will please the fans and I think they will create chances against a Huddersfield Town team who have just lost some confidence in recent weeks.
Manchester United have won comfortably at Swansea City and CSKA Moscow already this season and I think they can do that at the John Smith's Stadium on Saturday. Injuries mean Jose Mourinho might not be able to rotate the squad as he would have wished, but I think the players had a relatively comfortable night on Wednesday in Lisbon and I think the likes of Anthony Martial, Juan Mata, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Romelu Lukaku can create the chances to help Manchester United win this by a couple of goals at least.
Huddersfield Town have been better at home, but I think they will struggle to contain Manchester United and I like the away team to cover the Asian Handicap.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: It is no surprise that Manchester City are such strong favourites to win this game this weekend when you think of the way they have not just been winning games, but hammering teams. That has been the case at the Etihad Stadium where Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 5 consecutive wins and the layers are expecting another one sided, big win on Saturday.
That could easily happen with the way Manchester City have been playing, but I can't help think Burnley have been disrespected considering how they have performed so far this season. I mean this is a team that has won at Chelsea and drawn at both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, while Sean Dyche's men have only lost 1 of their last 18 away Premier League games by more than a single goal margin.
Burnley will be well organised and look to frustrate Manchester City, especially as they have had a week to prepare for this fixture while their hosts were playing a tough Champions League game.
Pep Guardiola's team have shown they can break down and wear down teams who want to sit in and defend in numbers and they have been beating teams by wide margins. That makes it a risk to oppose Manchester City, but I do think Burnley are getting a big start on the Asian Handicap when you think of the toughness they have shown away from home this season.
They have also shown they have a goal in the side and I do think they can cause a couple of problems of their own from set pieces and also when creating quick turnovers.
It will never feel easy to oppose Manchester City in their current form, but I do think Burnley can give them one of their tougher games of the last six weeks. They won't go toe to toe like Napoli did with some success, but Burnley won't panic if they do fall behind but will continue to set up to make life difficult for Manchester City and I think the belief in the system means they will be confident in keeping things tight enough.
Manchester City are much improved from last season, but they did have their troubles with Burnley and I think that may be the case on Saturday. Anything other than a Manchester City win would be an upset, but I think Burnley can at least make this competitive and I will back the away team with a start on the Asian Handicap.
Swansea City v Leicester City Pick: It might only be October but this feels like a big game between Swansea City and Leicester City who will be desperate for the three points to just start putting some distance between themselves and the bottom three.
This was expected to be another difficult season for Swansea City who had to sell Gylfi Sigurdsson in the summer transfer window. A lack of goals continues to be an issue for Swansea City although Tammy Abraham is trying to change that for them, while the bigger concern has to be the poor form at the Liberty Stadium.
Beating Huddersfield Town is a positive step in the right direction and now they host a Leicester City team who have decided to sack a second manager in the space of eight months. Craig Shakespeare might have been fortunate to be given the top job in the first place and the owners of Leicester City have bigger ambitions than merely surviving in the top flight.
Goals have been a problem for Leicester City too and it is pointing to a fixture that may not feature too many goals. Both Swansea City and Leicester City have had their issues in front of goal and the situation of the fixture should mean that neither team is wanting to take too many risks in this one.
A single goal could be good enough to win this, but picking that winner is much more difficult. Instead I will simply look for the game to feature two or fewer goals which has been a feature of the recent Swansea City and Leicester City games.
Backing that to happen would have resulted in a winner in 6 of the last 7 Swansea City games as well as in 4 of the last 5 Leicester City games. 6 of the last 7 between these clubs in Swansea have also ended with two or fewer goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome of this fixture this weekend.
Southampton v West Brom Pick: You always seem to know what to expect whenever a Tony Pulis side takes to the field and I wouldn't think West Brom will change their system too much for this one either. Pulis will want his team to be hard to beat and to try and frustrate the hosts in this one and I expect his team to be set out in exactly that manner.
It is much more difficult to know what to expect out of this Southampton team who can really struggle for goals at times. They may have scored twice last week, but that only matched the same number of goals Southampton had scored in their previous 6 games combined and I do think they could have a tough time breaking down West Brom.
There is no doubt that the issues in the final third are the ones that fans tend to focus on, but Mauricio Pellegrino has to be wondering what has happened to Southampton defensively. They conceded twice to Newcastle United last Sunday which means Southampton have conceded that number in 4 of their last 5 home games in all competitions.
You may not think West Brom are capable of exploiting those defensive vulnerabilities, but this is a team that has some pace on the counter attack and who seem to make the most of their opportunities when they do arrive. And The Baggies certainly have enough to be respected more than they are in this one considering Southampton have been priced at fairly strong odds on to win this live fixture.
I can't have that from a team who had failed to score in 3 consecutive home games prior to the 2-2 draw with Newcastle United and I certainly don't think Southampton win this one easily if they do earn the victory. There is every chance a strong West Brom defensive showing can frustrate the home team for long enough to allow The Baggies to perhaps hit them on the counter attack, and I don't think this Tony Pulis team will be blown away by too many teams in and around them.
West Brom were crushed 3-1 at Brighton, but I have to wonder if Southampton have the goals in the side to do that. Backing West Brom with the start on the Asian Handicap should at least return half of the stake here, but with every chance of a full pay out if Tony Pulis' men can earn any kind of result at St Mary's.
Everton v Arsenal Pick: At the start of the season I was critical of the transfers that Everton had made and could not understand why so many were not only tipping them to improve on last season, but to actually go on and challenge for a Champions League berth for next season. Even though they have fallen short of that as I pretty much expected, the underachievement of Everton is a real worry for the fans and for Ronald Koeman.
The issue I had with the Everton transfers was simply that I didn't think any of them improved the starting eleven which had lost Romelu Lukaku. Ross Barkley was another who was out of contention and the signings lacked pace which has been a real problem for Everton.
Defensively players like Ashley Williams and Phil Jagielka have declined, while Michael Keane is nothing like the player that was advertised as Everton have not really offered a lot of protection in front of the back four. There is an over-reliance on young players which is another surprise considering how much Everton have spent this summer and all around they have looked a poor team.
Ronald Koeman is under immense pressure as the manager of the club and he looks a little lost in trying to find the answers to get things turned around. It is no wonder he is long odds on to be the next manager to be sacked in the Premier League and a defeat on Sunday might be the end of his time at Goodison Park.
Everton have to show something, but Arsenal are coming in after being criticised by Troy Deeney for 'lacking cajones' which has to be a real embarrassment for the players. They may have won at Red Star Belgrade during the week, but it has been clear that this is the bigger game for Arsenal this week as Arsene Wenger tries to show his team are capable of winning the Premier League.
Arsenal do look miles away from Manchester City so any title challenge feels a long shot, but the players have to show more heart with the Deeney criticism likely to be ringing in their ears. The 3 losses in 4 away games is really disappointing, but Arsenal should have done better at Watford when leading 0-1 and missing some key chances before a controversial penalty turned the game on its head.
You have to say that this does feel the kind of game where Arsenal would come in a lay a dud, especially if recent years are any proof. That worries me, but Arsenal should not be odds against to beat Everton who have been struggling all over the field and whose fans are coming into the Stadium with nerves which transfer onto the pitch.
They haven't played well here in recent years, but Arsenal did beat Everton 0-2 at Goodison Park a couple of years ago. Last week at Watford they didn't have Alexis Sanchez or Aaron Ramsey and I think those two being back this week would be huge for the away side and I am going to back Arsenal to win this fixture and potentially end the Ronald Koeman reign at Goodison Park.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: Putting together a winning run at Wembley Stadium will be the best way for Tottenham Hotspur to consign all talk about a 'curse' to the rubbish bin and they are going for a third straight win here in all competitions. The 1-1 draw at Real Madrid during the week has given the fans plenty of confidence that Tottenham Hotspur can compete with the best teams in both at home and in Europe, but the tests keep coming for them.
The next couple of Premier League games see Tottenham Hotspur face Liverpool and Manchester United and Mauricio Pochettino will be looking to add four points to really ignite the season. That won't be easy and Tottenham Hotspur have to snap a recent poor run against Liverpool if they want to begin those two games with three points this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur have won none of their last 10 games against Liverpool in all competitions and did not win any of their last 4 League games at White Hart Lane against them. They will also have to respect the fact that Liverpool have a very good record against the top teams in the Premier League since Jurgen Klopp came in as manager.
Klopp was under a bit of pressure though as Liverpool have not been winning games as much as they would have wanted. A run of 1 win in 8 games in all competitions was ended emphatically with a 0-7 win at Maribor during the week in the Champions League, but Liverpool will be looking to get back on track in the Premier League where they have faltered of late.
The German manager shifted the blame onto Jose Mourinho for the goalless home draw with Manchester United last weekend, but his own tactics have to be questioned. Liverpool will also expect to have more space when travelling to Tottenham Hotspur who will be looking to get on the front foot themselves and that should play into the hands of the away team.
The performances against the top teams makes Liverpool very dangerous here and I do think they can earn a result against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not played as well as Wembley as they would have liked. Their team also put in a huge shift against Real Madrid while Liverpool coasted to a win in Slovenia, and I can see The Reds having the fresher legs in this one.
Tottenham Hotspur have lost to Chelsea at Wembley Stadium this season and failed to beat Burnley or Swansea City. I think they will have a tough time against Liverpool this weekend too, and I will back the visitors to earn a result here this weekend against a team they have had considerable success against in recent years.
MY PICKS: West Ham United
Thursday, 20 October 2016
College Football Week 8 Picks 2016 (October 20-22)
The College Football season has been a little inconsistent for my picks but I am still in a decent position to start putting this season back into the black as we reach Week 8.
Seriously, has the College Football season really got through two months already? It feels like you wait so long for the season to begin and we are already over half way through the regular season already.
It does mean the big games are fast approaching as teams try to position themselves in favourable Bowl Games as well as pushing for Play Off berths.
This week I am beginning my picks from Thursday as I do like the look of a couple of games during the midweek selection in Week 8. I will add the rest of the picks through the next couple of days in time for the full Saturday slate of games.
Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: The ACC Atlantic is a much clearer picture than the ACC Coastal, but both the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies know the winner's chances in the Division will remain, but the loser will simply be looking to become Bowl eligible.
That would be a mighty blow for the Hurricanes who came so close to beating Florida State at home but then followed that up with a disappointing loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels. It means one more Conference loss would likely be curtains for the Hurricanes, although the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be feeling sick after losing a silly Conference game at Syracuse Orange last week.
Virginia Tech do hold a tie-breaker over the North Carolina Tar Heels but they can't afford a loss to this Miami team and it makes for a big game on Thursday night.
On the face of it I immediately thought Miami are getting too many points, but they need to find their Offensive groove having just struggled the last couple of weeks. They are playing one of the better Defensive units in the ACC, but Miami would have been encouraged with the way Syracuse got things going and they still have some top playmakers in Brad Kaaya, Mark Walton and Joe Yearby who would have picked up something from the 561 total Offensive yards the Orange produced.
It is easy to imagine the Hokies overlooked Syracuse in Week 7 and I expect the Defense to come out with more to prove this week which will make it difficult for Miami. However the Hurricanes can still point to their own Defensive unit which has been a strength of the team as a way of keeping with the Virginia Tech Hokies in this one.
Jerod Evans could be huge for the Hokies as a mobile Quarter Back that can try and keep the Hurricanes off balance. However, I think Miami have gotten some experience dealing with mobile Quarter Backs their last two games and the Hurricanes played very well Defensively in the second half of their loss to the Tar Heels to think they can make plays in this one.
The difference between these teams looks to be the plays of the Secondary units and that is where I think Miami have the edge. If the Hurricanes can make enough plays back there, they could turn the ball over and at least keep the Offense in the game and I think getting almost a Touchdown of points looks too many for the Virginia Tech Hokies to cover.
Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: When this spread came out early last week, I had Texas Longhorns down on my shortlist especially while they were getting three points. The spread has since come down to the current number, but I still think the Longhorns can potentially win outright in Kansas State this weekend.
Neither team really has much hope in the Big 12 Conference having slipped to 1-2 from their opening three Conference games but the winner will take a big step towards becoming Bowl eligible at 4-3 overall. I don't think they can overlook the opponent this week either as the losing team is going to be under pressure to find three wins from their remaining schedules as they are.
Charlie Strong needs to end the season strong to show the Longhorns that they can stick with him as Head Coach and is under more pressure than Bill Snyder for the wins. Strong took over the Defensive side of the ball a couple of weeks ago and last week got a big response from that unit in shutting down the Iowa State Cyclones and holding them to just six points.
Trying to back that up is going to be a big challenge for Texas, but I do think they potentially match up very well with the Kansas State Offense. That could be the key to the entire game as the Longhorns have been stout against the run which is so important for the Wildcats to get their entire Offensive unit going.
A mobile Quarter Back has helped and Jesse Ertz is expected to play despite sitting out the second half of the defeat to Oklahoma. He has joined Charles Jones and Dalvin Warmack in helping Kansas State establish the run and Ertz has not exactly been asked to make a lot of big time throws.
If the Longhorns can continue to be solid enough against the ground game, they will force Kansas State to have to drop back and pass more than they are used to. The Longhorns Secondary has been a big weakness, but they do get considerable pressure up front and putting Ertz under pressure may lead to mistakes and the possibility of knocking the Quarter Back out of a second game in a row
The big match up on the other side of the ball also involves the line of scrimmage and Kansas State are hoping their Defensive Line can continue their strong play and try and shut down the much vaunted Texas running game. That is going to be a huge part of this game as Texas do like to establish the run too, but the key difference to the two Offenses has to be the balance that Texas have found from their Quarter Back throwing the ball compared with Kansas State.
Shane Buechele has been really good for Texas and is facing a Secondary that have allowed almost 400 passing yards per game in their last three games. Interceptions are still an issue for Buechele, but he should have some big numbers with limited pressure likely to reach him even if Texas are in third and long spots as expected.
It is the expectation of Texas moving the chains via two methods compared with Kansas State trying to ram the ball down their throat which makes me believe the Longhorns earn the upset on Saturday. Texas have lost on their last three visits to Manhattan, but I think they have the quality to snap that run.
Bill Snyder's Wildcats have thrived when set as the underdog, but they are now just 1-5 against the spread as the home favourite and I like the Longhorns again this week.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: One team might be looking ahead to a tough couple of weeks as the Northwestern Wildcats take on Ohio State and Wisconsin following this game. However the other may easily be licking some wounds after some big battles over the last three weeks when the Indiana Hoosiers had to take on Michigan State, Ohio State and Nebraska.
Both teams are at 3-3 overall as they chase Bowl eligibility, but Northwestern's 2-1 Conference record means they have a shot at playing in the Big Ten Championship Game in December. It has the makings of a really important game for both teams and the layers think it will be close.
The Hoosiers have been using two different Quarter Backs in their games to keep teams off-balance with one a better passer and the other a little more mobile. Richard Lagow should have the majority of snaps as the better passer on the team especially as the Wildcats have been strong at the line of scrimmage and held teams to 140 yards per game on the ground.
It could mean Zander Diamont is used at Quarter Back to help open up the running lanes with his abilities to move the chains with his legs, but I don't think Indiana will shy away from throwing into a Secondary that have allowed over 275 passing yards per game. Lagow should be able to have a big day statistically but he will also be under some pressure from the pass rush Northwestern have been able to generate while he has also been guilty of throwing Interceptions.
Having extra possessions would make Northwestern very dangerous who have improved after losing their first two games. The defeat to Western Michigan doesn't look half as bad as it did after Week 1, but the loss to Illinois State is unforgivable especially if Northwestern miss out on a Bowl by a game. Northwestern may thank Justin Jackson for their improvement as the Running Back has been able to pound the rock and keep the Offense in positive yardage and I think he will be able to do that against Indiana's Defensive Line which has had some tough games of late.
Getting things going on the ground makes the Wildcats very effective and eases the pressure on Clayton Thorson at Quarter Back with play-action becoming a serious weapon. Keeping the team in third and manageable also means Jackson has helped in pass protection for Thorson who is capable of making some plays in this one against a Secondary that has been able to turn the ball over.
It does have the feeling of a close game and I don't think there will be much in it going into the Fourth Quarter. However I think ultimately the Wildcats can make the bigger plays on the Defensive side of the ball than Indiana who have got to be feeling a little worn out after three tough games in a row where they have come up short twice.
Northwestern look to have some momentum behind them after scoring 92 points in their last two wins and I like the Wildcats to win this one thanks to a late Interception to close the show.
Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Western Michigan Broncos Pick: The MAC Conference probably hasn't received this much attention through eight weeks of the regular season for a few years since Northern Illinois looked to be threatening for a place at the top table of the NCAAF.
This feels different though as there was no real threat from Northern Illinois to play for the National Championship, but the Western Michigan Broncos could easily be invited into the Play Offs if they can run the table and win the Conference Championship Game. They might already have ticked off the level of competition accusation that some might point to as a reason for their unbeaten record by winning in Northwestern and Illinois already this season.
All of the headlines are being grabbed by Western Michigan, but Eastern Michigan deserve a lot of respect for coming into the game at 5-2. They are 2-1 in the Conference and a win on Saturday would mean having the inside track to the Championship Game while ruining the Broncos hopes of making it to the 'final four' in College Football. The 5-2 record is even more impressive when you think Eastern Michigan have finished 2-10 or 1-11 in each of the last four seasons.
The Eagles do have to step up again in this one though as the Broncos look the team to beat in the MAC Conference. They should have some success keeping the Western Michigan Offense on the sidelines as the establish the run, but Eastern Michigan will be throwing in a Secondary that have allowed just 207 passing yards per game and whose overall Defensive unit only allow 333 total yards per game.
Brogan Roback has been playing really well for Eastern Michigan and will come in with some confidence, but he could find himself under more duress than usual with the Broncos pass rush setting things up for the Secondary. This has all the makings of a career year for Roback who has helped the Eagles get to a win of becoming Bowl eligible, but the challenge against this Western Michigan Defensive unit is a big one for him.
That challenge will only increase if the Broncos are able to move the chains and end drives with Touchdowns as I think they will be able to do. Western Michigan have a nice balance on the Offense and importantly have not been turning the ball over which makes them tough to defend and I think the Eastern Michigan Eagles are in for a tough afternoon.
Jarvion Franklin has been able to establish the run for the Broncos and there have been signs in recent games that the Eagles Defensive Line is just struggling in that regards. While their season stats are not bad, recently Eastern Michigan have been allowing quite a significant number higher in yards per carry and I expect Franklin to be able to rip off some big gains.
That should open the door for Zach Terrell to be able to make his plays against an Eagles Defensive Line that hasn't really been able to pressurise the Quarter Back as they may have liked. Terrell has looked after the ball when he has been throwing it and I think the Broncos are going to be tough to contain with Franklin likely ripping off some huge runs in the Third and Fourth Quarter after some tiredness sets in for the Eagles.
Western Michigan have won the last two games in the series by at least 30 points per game and while I respect the improvement made by Eastern Michigan, I think the Broncos secure another big win in Week 8.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The SEC West looks to be a straight shoot-out between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies although both the Auburn Tigers and LSU Tigers are still within striking range of the lead. This is a great Division in the NCAAF and there are some huge games to come in the final few weeks of the regular season with this one between two unbeaten teams taking place in Week 8.
The Aggies are coming in off a bye after a narrow escape in beating the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 6. Alabama picked the bones of the Volunteers last week in a beat down in Nashville and the Crimson Tide are a healthy favourite to make it 8-0 for the season and 5-0 in the SEC since winning the National Championship last January.
There is so much to like about this Alabama team who have found a really nice balance on the Offensive side of the ball. Jalen Hurts was expected to be a big time Quarter Back for the Crimson Tide, but not until next season at the earliest and he has come in a really helped give them the balance that Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin love.
I do think the Aggies have overachieved so far and that they are perhaps not as good as their record may indicate. They've had a couple of Overtime wins in which they actually had less yardage than both UCLA and Tennessee and I think the Defensive unit has given up a few big plays which is problematic against Alabama.
At least they have had a week to prepare the team and get them ready for this game. It might be the kind of rest they would have needed as the Defensive Line had just started to give up some big numbers on the ground and that is not good news when facing an Alabama Offensive unit that puts up over 250 yards per game on the ground and who look to be improving in each passing week despite the level of competition improving too.
That only opens things up for Hurts who should be able to have a strong day throwing against this Aggies Secondary which has had some problems against the pass and the Crimson Tide might actually find some consistency moving the chains.
The question is then posed to Trevor Knight and the Aggies Offense as to whether they can keep up with the Crimson Tide if Alabama are rolling like they could be. While the Aggies have shown some balance on the Offensive side of the ball, they won't have come across too many Defensive units as powerful as the one that Alabama have who have 11 Touchdowns from their Defensive and Special Teams this season.
Knight is a mobile Quarter Back, although Alabama have begun to deal with those since Johnny Manziel ripped them apart, and Knight was also the MVP of the Sugar Bowl when Quarter Backing Oklahoma to a big win over the Crimson Tide in 2014. That experience should give him confidence but he has to avoid the big turnovers and Knight is also likely to be swarmed by a fierce pass rush even when he tries to make plays with his legs.
Alabama have been giving up next to nothing on the ground which suggests Trayveon Williams is in for his most difficult game at Running Back for the Aggies and I am struggling to see how Texas A&M find consistent scoring drives outside of creating turnovers.
Doing that will give the Aggies a chance, but this Alabama team looks better than the one that won the National Championship and I think they are stronger than Texas A&M on both sides of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor Knight make some big plays for the Aggies, but eventually they will be worn down and he will be under pressure which should lead to some mistakes.
The Crimson Tide have been able to pull away and dominate the Aggies the last two times they have met and I think the Aggies might be a little overrated in this one as an unbeaten team. I will back Alabama to go into their bye week in complete control of the SEC West and I am looking for them to pull away for the cover in the second half.
Tulane Green Wave @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick: These two teams are not likely to be challenging in the American Athletic Conference but both the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Tulane Green Wave have a chance of at least reaching Bowl eligibility. That makes a game like this very important for both teams although more so for the Golden Hurricane who do think they can get back into their Division race despite being dropped to 1-1 in the Conference.
It is an interesting match up between one team that relies on their Defensive unit (Tulane) playing one who has a high powered Offense (Tulsa) and the winner is going to be the one that can impose their will on the other. Both teams are coming off tough, close losses in Week 7 and Tulsa also have to make sure they don't overlook Tulane with Memphis next on deck which is a game they have to win.
The Golden Hurricane have really gotten going Offensively once they have got into Conference play having needed to play the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road in non-Conference play in Week 2. Playing teams more of their own level has seen Tulsa improve their Offensive stats and this is a team that has pretty good balance on the Offensive side of the ball.
They have been able to run and throw the ball, but it might be more difficult to establish the run against a Tulane team that have already played Navy but yet still only allow 3.7 yards per carry on the season. The Green Wave will feel they can at least force Tulsa into a few third and long spots which is going to be key to unleash their strong pass rush against the Golden Hurricanes Offensive Line which has struggled to protect Dane Evans.
Evans has still played well at Quarter Back having already surpassed 1500 passing yards for the season after throwing over 4300 yards last season. However he has been hit a fair bit and the pressure up front has led to some Interceptions, an area Tulane will look to impress in and try and create extra possessions.
The question for Tulane is whether they can get enough Offensive output to at least keep up with Tulsa who will likely score points even when some drives are shut down. The triple option Offense has not been churning out as many yards on the ground as they would have wanted but the Tulsa team have had some difficulty slowing down the run already and will be seeing the triple option for the first time.
Glen Cuiellete has been able to make some plays with his arm, but Tulane won't want him to have to do too much. The triple option makes the Green Wave dangerous if Tulsa are perhaps thinking about the big game with Memphis next week having come off the big game with the Houston Cougars.
The Green Wave Defensive unit are capable of making enough plays to keep their team in this one and Tulsa are just 4-9 against the spread as the home favourite. I am looking for Tulane to surprise and keep this game within double digits.
Michigan State Spartans @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: When the Michigan State Spartans knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, it looked like the kind of win that could spark them to have a real go in the Big Ten Conference. It has all gone wrong since that win, which also doesn't look as strong as it once did thanks to poor Notre Dame performances, and Michigan State head into Week 8 with a 0-3 record in the Conference and 4 losses in a row.
The Spartans need four wins to become Bowl eligible this season and they are under some pressure to do that when you look at the remaining schedule which includes hosting Michigan and Ohio State. It is the Michigan Wolverines next up on deck for Michigan State and I do wonder if they can focus on the Maryland Terrapins.
Losing this week would make it impossible for Michigan State to make a Bowl game without an upset or two in their remaining games and that has put the pressure on. They have been poor Offensively after losing Connor Cook, which was to be expected, but some of the performances from the Defensive unit have been particularly worrying.
Michigan State have not confirmed who they will be starting at Quarter Back with both Tyler O'Connor and Brian Lewerke having struggled when they have been given their opportunities. Their cause has not been helped by a lack of a running game and Michigan State might have a difficult time establishing the run this week too.
That is down to how they have played rather than who they are playing as the Maryland Defensive Line have just begun to get worn down and been giving up a few big plays. In saying that, they might load the box and dare Michigan State to beat them through the air which is going to be very difficult against a Secondary that have been playing well.
Some of that is down to Maryland not being able to stop the run so not tested through the air, but they do bring a strong pass rush and will expect to hit both O'Connor or Lewerke depending on who is starting.
Maryland might also be given a boost by the returning Perry Hills at Quarter Back who missed the game against Minnesota last week. Hills is a mobile Quarter Back and can join Lorenzo Harrison in being able to not only establish the run, but make sure their Quarter Back is left in third and manageable spots as they look to move the chains. Maryland will be confident they can move the chains on the ground after seeing Northwestern create big holes against the Spartans Defensive Line who have not been very good over the last month.
The Terrapins have to avoid big turnovers but they have every chance of upsetting Michigan State who might be looking ahead to the game with the Wolverines as a chance to play spoiler for a really big rival. Maryland have played well enough on both sides of the ball to have enough successes in this one and I like them in the home underdog spot against a team that has been battered around and looked uncomfortable over the last few weeks.
That look ahead spot for Michigan State is too hard to ignore and I will take the points with Maryland in Week 8.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: The best chance for the Big 12 to have a representative in the Play Offs this season is if the Oklahoma Sooners are not the unbeaten team in the Conference. Their losses to Ohio State and particularly Houston are likely to hold back Oklahoma without a Conference Championship Game, but the Sooners are very alive in the Big 12 where they have a 3-0 record.
The Sooners visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 8 after this team fell to 1-2 in the Conference with their blow out loss to the unbeaten West Virginia Mountaineers. It doesn't get any easier for Kliff Kingsbury this week either as his high-scoring team have struggled Defensively through the season.
Samaje Perene is out this week which is a huge blow to the Sooners Offense, although it will still take some effort from the Red Raiders Defensive Line to stop Oklahoma establishing the run. The Red Raiders have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground and Joe Mixon is a capable back up to Perene having averaged 6 yards per carry this season and almost putting up 500 yards on the ground.
It is a big weekend for Quarter Back Baker Mayfield who actually started his College career at Texas Tech and he could have a huge game if Mixon gets the running game going. The Texas Tech Secondary have struggled all year and they have not been able to get to the Quarter Back up front which has only increased the time the Secondary need to keep Receivers covered.
While Oklahoma should have a balanced Offense, Texas Tech should have some chance of keeping up with them with Patrick Mahomes one of the better Quarter Backs in the Big 12. He has been put under some pressure and likely will have to avoid the Oklahoma pass rush, but Mahomes will be throwing into a Secondary which has allowed over 275 passing yards per game which should mean keeping Texas Tech somewhat in a shoot out.
The problem for Mahomes is that he is not likely to be helped by much run support and that means having the challenge to consistently make throws from third and long. That is a problem for a Quarter Back who hasn't been given as much time by the Offensive Line as he would have liked, while Mahomes is also carrying a couple of knocks having been banged around.
It feels like this could develop into a shoot out but the Sooners have gotten the better of Texas Tech in recent games and have blown them out in three of the last four. Despite what Bob Stoops may say, I can imagine Oklahoma are more fired up for their Quarter Back Mayfield in his return to Texas Tech and I think that will motivate the Sooners to produce a strong game.
Having more balance on the Offensive side of the ball should prove to be a game breaker and I like the Sooners to come through with a win by around seventeen points in Week 8.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The Penn State Nittany Lions have already been blown out by the Michigan Wolverines this season, but they have another chance to take on the elite of the Big Ten Conference. This time they get to host the Ohio State Buckeyes and I think the Nittany Lions can make this a much more competitive game than the layers believe.
The public are buying the number with the money pouring in on the Buckeyes, but I like the number of points being given to Penn State and being able to oppose the public on this pick works for me too.
Ezekiel Elliot might be tearing things up for the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have not missed a trick when it comes to running the ball. Mike Weber has helped the Buckeyes average 300 yards per game on the ground along with mobile Quarter Back JT Barrett and you have to think the Buckeyes are going to have a strong day running the ball in this one.
That is partly due to how good they are and also the fact that it has been possible to run against the Nittany Lions this season. Penn State's Defensive Line had question marks before the season began thanks to the experienced players that had left at the end of the 2015 season and they have struggled to hold worse teams than the Buckeyes when it comes to stopping the run.
Penn State's Secondary have played well but that is partly down to teams not needing to throw against them. However they do have a solid pass rush and Penn State might feel they can stop some Ohio State drives if they can make a couple of big plays up front.
Making plays against this Ohio State Defense is going to be very difficult for Trace McSorley unless Penn State can run the ball as effectively as they did last week. Saquon Barkley has not been able to find the holes behind this Offensive Line that he would have liked through the season, but he had a huge game in Week 7 and confidence should be high.
It does have to be noted that the Buckeyes have struggled in road games at Oklahoma and Wisconsin when it comes to stopping the run, but they should win at the line of scrimmage more often than not. Penn State will need Barkley and McSorley to work in tandem and try and keep the Ohio State Offense on the sidelines by working the clock behind their Offensive Line.
Ultimately the Buckeyes are going to be too strong, but Penn State won't be a walkover and they are coming in off a bye week which should have given James Franklin the time to put together a strong game plan. Franklin has a decent record as the home underdog as a Head Coach and I think Penn State are going to be able to put together a late score that should keep them within this number.
MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes + 6 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Northwestern Wildcats - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Western Michigan Broncos - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Stan James (1 Unit)
Tulane Green Wave + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins + 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 14 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions + 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Season 2016: 33-32-2, - 1.45 Units (67 Units Staked, - 2.16% Yield)
Seriously, has the College Football season really got through two months already? It feels like you wait so long for the season to begin and we are already over half way through the regular season already.
It does mean the big games are fast approaching as teams try to position themselves in favourable Bowl Games as well as pushing for Play Off berths.
This week I am beginning my picks from Thursday as I do like the look of a couple of games during the midweek selection in Week 8. I will add the rest of the picks through the next couple of days in time for the full Saturday slate of games.
Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: The ACC Atlantic is a much clearer picture than the ACC Coastal, but both the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies know the winner's chances in the Division will remain, but the loser will simply be looking to become Bowl eligible.
That would be a mighty blow for the Hurricanes who came so close to beating Florida State at home but then followed that up with a disappointing loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels. It means one more Conference loss would likely be curtains for the Hurricanes, although the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be feeling sick after losing a silly Conference game at Syracuse Orange last week.
Virginia Tech do hold a tie-breaker over the North Carolina Tar Heels but they can't afford a loss to this Miami team and it makes for a big game on Thursday night.
On the face of it I immediately thought Miami are getting too many points, but they need to find their Offensive groove having just struggled the last couple of weeks. They are playing one of the better Defensive units in the ACC, but Miami would have been encouraged with the way Syracuse got things going and they still have some top playmakers in Brad Kaaya, Mark Walton and Joe Yearby who would have picked up something from the 561 total Offensive yards the Orange produced.
It is easy to imagine the Hokies overlooked Syracuse in Week 7 and I expect the Defense to come out with more to prove this week which will make it difficult for Miami. However the Hurricanes can still point to their own Defensive unit which has been a strength of the team as a way of keeping with the Virginia Tech Hokies in this one.
Jerod Evans could be huge for the Hokies as a mobile Quarter Back that can try and keep the Hurricanes off balance. However, I think Miami have gotten some experience dealing with mobile Quarter Backs their last two games and the Hurricanes played very well Defensively in the second half of their loss to the Tar Heels to think they can make plays in this one.
The difference between these teams looks to be the plays of the Secondary units and that is where I think Miami have the edge. If the Hurricanes can make enough plays back there, they could turn the ball over and at least keep the Offense in the game and I think getting almost a Touchdown of points looks too many for the Virginia Tech Hokies to cover.
Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: When this spread came out early last week, I had Texas Longhorns down on my shortlist especially while they were getting three points. The spread has since come down to the current number, but I still think the Longhorns can potentially win outright in Kansas State this weekend.
Neither team really has much hope in the Big 12 Conference having slipped to 1-2 from their opening three Conference games but the winner will take a big step towards becoming Bowl eligible at 4-3 overall. I don't think they can overlook the opponent this week either as the losing team is going to be under pressure to find three wins from their remaining schedules as they are.
Charlie Strong needs to end the season strong to show the Longhorns that they can stick with him as Head Coach and is under more pressure than Bill Snyder for the wins. Strong took over the Defensive side of the ball a couple of weeks ago and last week got a big response from that unit in shutting down the Iowa State Cyclones and holding them to just six points.
Trying to back that up is going to be a big challenge for Texas, but I do think they potentially match up very well with the Kansas State Offense. That could be the key to the entire game as the Longhorns have been stout against the run which is so important for the Wildcats to get their entire Offensive unit going.
A mobile Quarter Back has helped and Jesse Ertz is expected to play despite sitting out the second half of the defeat to Oklahoma. He has joined Charles Jones and Dalvin Warmack in helping Kansas State establish the run and Ertz has not exactly been asked to make a lot of big time throws.
If the Longhorns can continue to be solid enough against the ground game, they will force Kansas State to have to drop back and pass more than they are used to. The Longhorns Secondary has been a big weakness, but they do get considerable pressure up front and putting Ertz under pressure may lead to mistakes and the possibility of knocking the Quarter Back out of a second game in a row
The big match up on the other side of the ball also involves the line of scrimmage and Kansas State are hoping their Defensive Line can continue their strong play and try and shut down the much vaunted Texas running game. That is going to be a huge part of this game as Texas do like to establish the run too, but the key difference to the two Offenses has to be the balance that Texas have found from their Quarter Back throwing the ball compared with Kansas State.
Shane Buechele has been really good for Texas and is facing a Secondary that have allowed almost 400 passing yards per game in their last three games. Interceptions are still an issue for Buechele, but he should have some big numbers with limited pressure likely to reach him even if Texas are in third and long spots as expected.
It is the expectation of Texas moving the chains via two methods compared with Kansas State trying to ram the ball down their throat which makes me believe the Longhorns earn the upset on Saturday. Texas have lost on their last three visits to Manhattan, but I think they have the quality to snap that run.
Bill Snyder's Wildcats have thrived when set as the underdog, but they are now just 1-5 against the spread as the home favourite and I like the Longhorns again this week.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: One team might be looking ahead to a tough couple of weeks as the Northwestern Wildcats take on Ohio State and Wisconsin following this game. However the other may easily be licking some wounds after some big battles over the last three weeks when the Indiana Hoosiers had to take on Michigan State, Ohio State and Nebraska.
Both teams are at 3-3 overall as they chase Bowl eligibility, but Northwestern's 2-1 Conference record means they have a shot at playing in the Big Ten Championship Game in December. It has the makings of a really important game for both teams and the layers think it will be close.
The Hoosiers have been using two different Quarter Backs in their games to keep teams off-balance with one a better passer and the other a little more mobile. Richard Lagow should have the majority of snaps as the better passer on the team especially as the Wildcats have been strong at the line of scrimmage and held teams to 140 yards per game on the ground.
It could mean Zander Diamont is used at Quarter Back to help open up the running lanes with his abilities to move the chains with his legs, but I don't think Indiana will shy away from throwing into a Secondary that have allowed over 275 passing yards per game. Lagow should be able to have a big day statistically but he will also be under some pressure from the pass rush Northwestern have been able to generate while he has also been guilty of throwing Interceptions.
Having extra possessions would make Northwestern very dangerous who have improved after losing their first two games. The defeat to Western Michigan doesn't look half as bad as it did after Week 1, but the loss to Illinois State is unforgivable especially if Northwestern miss out on a Bowl by a game. Northwestern may thank Justin Jackson for their improvement as the Running Back has been able to pound the rock and keep the Offense in positive yardage and I think he will be able to do that against Indiana's Defensive Line which has had some tough games of late.
Getting things going on the ground makes the Wildcats very effective and eases the pressure on Clayton Thorson at Quarter Back with play-action becoming a serious weapon. Keeping the team in third and manageable also means Jackson has helped in pass protection for Thorson who is capable of making some plays in this one against a Secondary that has been able to turn the ball over.
It does have the feeling of a close game and I don't think there will be much in it going into the Fourth Quarter. However I think ultimately the Wildcats can make the bigger plays on the Defensive side of the ball than Indiana who have got to be feeling a little worn out after three tough games in a row where they have come up short twice.
Northwestern look to have some momentum behind them after scoring 92 points in their last two wins and I like the Wildcats to win this one thanks to a late Interception to close the show.
Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Western Michigan Broncos Pick: The MAC Conference probably hasn't received this much attention through eight weeks of the regular season for a few years since Northern Illinois looked to be threatening for a place at the top table of the NCAAF.
This feels different though as there was no real threat from Northern Illinois to play for the National Championship, but the Western Michigan Broncos could easily be invited into the Play Offs if they can run the table and win the Conference Championship Game. They might already have ticked off the level of competition accusation that some might point to as a reason for their unbeaten record by winning in Northwestern and Illinois already this season.
All of the headlines are being grabbed by Western Michigan, but Eastern Michigan deserve a lot of respect for coming into the game at 5-2. They are 2-1 in the Conference and a win on Saturday would mean having the inside track to the Championship Game while ruining the Broncos hopes of making it to the 'final four' in College Football. The 5-2 record is even more impressive when you think Eastern Michigan have finished 2-10 or 1-11 in each of the last four seasons.
The Eagles do have to step up again in this one though as the Broncos look the team to beat in the MAC Conference. They should have some success keeping the Western Michigan Offense on the sidelines as the establish the run, but Eastern Michigan will be throwing in a Secondary that have allowed just 207 passing yards per game and whose overall Defensive unit only allow 333 total yards per game.
Brogan Roback has been playing really well for Eastern Michigan and will come in with some confidence, but he could find himself under more duress than usual with the Broncos pass rush setting things up for the Secondary. This has all the makings of a career year for Roback who has helped the Eagles get to a win of becoming Bowl eligible, but the challenge against this Western Michigan Defensive unit is a big one for him.
That challenge will only increase if the Broncos are able to move the chains and end drives with Touchdowns as I think they will be able to do. Western Michigan have a nice balance on the Offense and importantly have not been turning the ball over which makes them tough to defend and I think the Eastern Michigan Eagles are in for a tough afternoon.
Jarvion Franklin has been able to establish the run for the Broncos and there have been signs in recent games that the Eagles Defensive Line is just struggling in that regards. While their season stats are not bad, recently Eastern Michigan have been allowing quite a significant number higher in yards per carry and I expect Franklin to be able to rip off some big gains.
That should open the door for Zach Terrell to be able to make his plays against an Eagles Defensive Line that hasn't really been able to pressurise the Quarter Back as they may have liked. Terrell has looked after the ball when he has been throwing it and I think the Broncos are going to be tough to contain with Franklin likely ripping off some huge runs in the Third and Fourth Quarter after some tiredness sets in for the Eagles.
Western Michigan have won the last two games in the series by at least 30 points per game and while I respect the improvement made by Eastern Michigan, I think the Broncos secure another big win in Week 8.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The SEC West looks to be a straight shoot-out between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies although both the Auburn Tigers and LSU Tigers are still within striking range of the lead. This is a great Division in the NCAAF and there are some huge games to come in the final few weeks of the regular season with this one between two unbeaten teams taking place in Week 8.
The Aggies are coming in off a bye after a narrow escape in beating the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 6. Alabama picked the bones of the Volunteers last week in a beat down in Nashville and the Crimson Tide are a healthy favourite to make it 8-0 for the season and 5-0 in the SEC since winning the National Championship last January.
There is so much to like about this Alabama team who have found a really nice balance on the Offensive side of the ball. Jalen Hurts was expected to be a big time Quarter Back for the Crimson Tide, but not until next season at the earliest and he has come in a really helped give them the balance that Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin love.
I do think the Aggies have overachieved so far and that they are perhaps not as good as their record may indicate. They've had a couple of Overtime wins in which they actually had less yardage than both UCLA and Tennessee and I think the Defensive unit has given up a few big plays which is problematic against Alabama.
At least they have had a week to prepare the team and get them ready for this game. It might be the kind of rest they would have needed as the Defensive Line had just started to give up some big numbers on the ground and that is not good news when facing an Alabama Offensive unit that puts up over 250 yards per game on the ground and who look to be improving in each passing week despite the level of competition improving too.
That only opens things up for Hurts who should be able to have a strong day throwing against this Aggies Secondary which has had some problems against the pass and the Crimson Tide might actually find some consistency moving the chains.
The question is then posed to Trevor Knight and the Aggies Offense as to whether they can keep up with the Crimson Tide if Alabama are rolling like they could be. While the Aggies have shown some balance on the Offensive side of the ball, they won't have come across too many Defensive units as powerful as the one that Alabama have who have 11 Touchdowns from their Defensive and Special Teams this season.
Knight is a mobile Quarter Back, although Alabama have begun to deal with those since Johnny Manziel ripped them apart, and Knight was also the MVP of the Sugar Bowl when Quarter Backing Oklahoma to a big win over the Crimson Tide in 2014. That experience should give him confidence but he has to avoid the big turnovers and Knight is also likely to be swarmed by a fierce pass rush even when he tries to make plays with his legs.
Alabama have been giving up next to nothing on the ground which suggests Trayveon Williams is in for his most difficult game at Running Back for the Aggies and I am struggling to see how Texas A&M find consistent scoring drives outside of creating turnovers.
Doing that will give the Aggies a chance, but this Alabama team looks better than the one that won the National Championship and I think they are stronger than Texas A&M on both sides of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor Knight make some big plays for the Aggies, but eventually they will be worn down and he will be under pressure which should lead to some mistakes.
The Crimson Tide have been able to pull away and dominate the Aggies the last two times they have met and I think the Aggies might be a little overrated in this one as an unbeaten team. I will back Alabama to go into their bye week in complete control of the SEC West and I am looking for them to pull away for the cover in the second half.
Tulane Green Wave @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick: These two teams are not likely to be challenging in the American Athletic Conference but both the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Tulane Green Wave have a chance of at least reaching Bowl eligibility. That makes a game like this very important for both teams although more so for the Golden Hurricane who do think they can get back into their Division race despite being dropped to 1-1 in the Conference.
It is an interesting match up between one team that relies on their Defensive unit (Tulane) playing one who has a high powered Offense (Tulsa) and the winner is going to be the one that can impose their will on the other. Both teams are coming off tough, close losses in Week 7 and Tulsa also have to make sure they don't overlook Tulane with Memphis next on deck which is a game they have to win.
The Golden Hurricane have really gotten going Offensively once they have got into Conference play having needed to play the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road in non-Conference play in Week 2. Playing teams more of their own level has seen Tulsa improve their Offensive stats and this is a team that has pretty good balance on the Offensive side of the ball.
They have been able to run and throw the ball, but it might be more difficult to establish the run against a Tulane team that have already played Navy but yet still only allow 3.7 yards per carry on the season. The Green Wave will feel they can at least force Tulsa into a few third and long spots which is going to be key to unleash their strong pass rush against the Golden Hurricanes Offensive Line which has struggled to protect Dane Evans.
Evans has still played well at Quarter Back having already surpassed 1500 passing yards for the season after throwing over 4300 yards last season. However he has been hit a fair bit and the pressure up front has led to some Interceptions, an area Tulane will look to impress in and try and create extra possessions.
The question for Tulane is whether they can get enough Offensive output to at least keep up with Tulsa who will likely score points even when some drives are shut down. The triple option Offense has not been churning out as many yards on the ground as they would have wanted but the Tulsa team have had some difficulty slowing down the run already and will be seeing the triple option for the first time.
Glen Cuiellete has been able to make some plays with his arm, but Tulane won't want him to have to do too much. The triple option makes the Green Wave dangerous if Tulsa are perhaps thinking about the big game with Memphis next week having come off the big game with the Houston Cougars.
The Green Wave Defensive unit are capable of making enough plays to keep their team in this one and Tulsa are just 4-9 against the spread as the home favourite. I am looking for Tulane to surprise and keep this game within double digits.
Michigan State Spartans @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: When the Michigan State Spartans knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, it looked like the kind of win that could spark them to have a real go in the Big Ten Conference. It has all gone wrong since that win, which also doesn't look as strong as it once did thanks to poor Notre Dame performances, and Michigan State head into Week 8 with a 0-3 record in the Conference and 4 losses in a row.
The Spartans need four wins to become Bowl eligible this season and they are under some pressure to do that when you look at the remaining schedule which includes hosting Michigan and Ohio State. It is the Michigan Wolverines next up on deck for Michigan State and I do wonder if they can focus on the Maryland Terrapins.
Losing this week would make it impossible for Michigan State to make a Bowl game without an upset or two in their remaining games and that has put the pressure on. They have been poor Offensively after losing Connor Cook, which was to be expected, but some of the performances from the Defensive unit have been particularly worrying.
Michigan State have not confirmed who they will be starting at Quarter Back with both Tyler O'Connor and Brian Lewerke having struggled when they have been given their opportunities. Their cause has not been helped by a lack of a running game and Michigan State might have a difficult time establishing the run this week too.
That is down to how they have played rather than who they are playing as the Maryland Defensive Line have just begun to get worn down and been giving up a few big plays. In saying that, they might load the box and dare Michigan State to beat them through the air which is going to be very difficult against a Secondary that have been playing well.
Some of that is down to Maryland not being able to stop the run so not tested through the air, but they do bring a strong pass rush and will expect to hit both O'Connor or Lewerke depending on who is starting.
Maryland might also be given a boost by the returning Perry Hills at Quarter Back who missed the game against Minnesota last week. Hills is a mobile Quarter Back and can join Lorenzo Harrison in being able to not only establish the run, but make sure their Quarter Back is left in third and manageable spots as they look to move the chains. Maryland will be confident they can move the chains on the ground after seeing Northwestern create big holes against the Spartans Defensive Line who have not been very good over the last month.
The Terrapins have to avoid big turnovers but they have every chance of upsetting Michigan State who might be looking ahead to the game with the Wolverines as a chance to play spoiler for a really big rival. Maryland have played well enough on both sides of the ball to have enough successes in this one and I like them in the home underdog spot against a team that has been battered around and looked uncomfortable over the last few weeks.
That look ahead spot for Michigan State is too hard to ignore and I will take the points with Maryland in Week 8.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: The best chance for the Big 12 to have a representative in the Play Offs this season is if the Oklahoma Sooners are not the unbeaten team in the Conference. Their losses to Ohio State and particularly Houston are likely to hold back Oklahoma without a Conference Championship Game, but the Sooners are very alive in the Big 12 where they have a 3-0 record.
The Sooners visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 8 after this team fell to 1-2 in the Conference with their blow out loss to the unbeaten West Virginia Mountaineers. It doesn't get any easier for Kliff Kingsbury this week either as his high-scoring team have struggled Defensively through the season.
Samaje Perene is out this week which is a huge blow to the Sooners Offense, although it will still take some effort from the Red Raiders Defensive Line to stop Oklahoma establishing the run. The Red Raiders have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground and Joe Mixon is a capable back up to Perene having averaged 6 yards per carry this season and almost putting up 500 yards on the ground.
It is a big weekend for Quarter Back Baker Mayfield who actually started his College career at Texas Tech and he could have a huge game if Mixon gets the running game going. The Texas Tech Secondary have struggled all year and they have not been able to get to the Quarter Back up front which has only increased the time the Secondary need to keep Receivers covered.
While Oklahoma should have a balanced Offense, Texas Tech should have some chance of keeping up with them with Patrick Mahomes one of the better Quarter Backs in the Big 12. He has been put under some pressure and likely will have to avoid the Oklahoma pass rush, but Mahomes will be throwing into a Secondary which has allowed over 275 passing yards per game which should mean keeping Texas Tech somewhat in a shoot out.
The problem for Mahomes is that he is not likely to be helped by much run support and that means having the challenge to consistently make throws from third and long. That is a problem for a Quarter Back who hasn't been given as much time by the Offensive Line as he would have liked, while Mahomes is also carrying a couple of knocks having been banged around.
It feels like this could develop into a shoot out but the Sooners have gotten the better of Texas Tech in recent games and have blown them out in three of the last four. Despite what Bob Stoops may say, I can imagine Oklahoma are more fired up for their Quarter Back Mayfield in his return to Texas Tech and I think that will motivate the Sooners to produce a strong game.
Having more balance on the Offensive side of the ball should prove to be a game breaker and I like the Sooners to come through with a win by around seventeen points in Week 8.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The Penn State Nittany Lions have already been blown out by the Michigan Wolverines this season, but they have another chance to take on the elite of the Big Ten Conference. This time they get to host the Ohio State Buckeyes and I think the Nittany Lions can make this a much more competitive game than the layers believe.
The public are buying the number with the money pouring in on the Buckeyes, but I like the number of points being given to Penn State and being able to oppose the public on this pick works for me too.
Ezekiel Elliot might be tearing things up for the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have not missed a trick when it comes to running the ball. Mike Weber has helped the Buckeyes average 300 yards per game on the ground along with mobile Quarter Back JT Barrett and you have to think the Buckeyes are going to have a strong day running the ball in this one.
That is partly due to how good they are and also the fact that it has been possible to run against the Nittany Lions this season. Penn State's Defensive Line had question marks before the season began thanks to the experienced players that had left at the end of the 2015 season and they have struggled to hold worse teams than the Buckeyes when it comes to stopping the run.
Penn State's Secondary have played well but that is partly down to teams not needing to throw against them. However they do have a solid pass rush and Penn State might feel they can stop some Ohio State drives if they can make a couple of big plays up front.
Making plays against this Ohio State Defense is going to be very difficult for Trace McSorley unless Penn State can run the ball as effectively as they did last week. Saquon Barkley has not been able to find the holes behind this Offensive Line that he would have liked through the season, but he had a huge game in Week 7 and confidence should be high.
It does have to be noted that the Buckeyes have struggled in road games at Oklahoma and Wisconsin when it comes to stopping the run, but they should win at the line of scrimmage more often than not. Penn State will need Barkley and McSorley to work in tandem and try and keep the Ohio State Offense on the sidelines by working the clock behind their Offensive Line.
Ultimately the Buckeyes are going to be too strong, but Penn State won't be a walkover and they are coming in off a bye week which should have given James Franklin the time to put together a strong game plan. Franklin has a decent record as the home underdog as a Head Coach and I think Penn State are going to be able to put together a late score that should keep them within this number.
MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes + 6 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Northwestern Wildcats - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Western Michigan Broncos - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Stan James (1 Unit)
Tulane Green Wave + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins + 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 14 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions + 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 7: 4-5, - 1.28 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.22% Yield)
Week 6: 7-1-1, + 5.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 59.44% Yield)
Week 6: 7-1-1, + 5.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 59.44% Yield)
Week 5: 2-7-1, - 5.14 Units (10 Units Staked, - 51.40% Yield)
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.78% Yield)
Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Season 2016: 33-32-2, - 1.45 Units (67 Units Staked, - 2.16% Yield)
Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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