Week 10 proved to be the joint-worst performance of the season for the NFL Picks so the focus in Week 11 is to bounce back.
It is perhaps not a surprise that Week 10 was as indifferent as it was considering the upsets littered throughout the League, although there was a touch of misfortune with a couple of the selections.
The Green Bay Packers lost by four points (+ 3.5) and the New York Jets had their chances on Sunday Night Football as that fanbase is beginning to accept that this is going to be a lost season.
You do have to question the Jets management- as soon as Aaron Rodgers went down with a potentially season-ending injury after just a handful of snaps, they had to have known that Zach Wilson was not going to get it done at Quarter Back... I mean they traded for Rodgers knowing Wilson needed time away from the spotlight and the chance to work under a future Hall of Famer.
Fans will be looking at the Minnesota Vikings with plenty of envy- their decision to bring in Joshua Dobbs as soon as Kirk Cousins was placed on Injured Reserve has actually given the team every chance of making the PlayOffs.
He might not be an elite Quarter Back, but Dobbs could have made enough plays to back up a fantastic Jets Defensive unit and they would certainly feel they could challenge those top teams in the AFC.
Instead, Jets fans may already be thinking about the off-season and hoping for better in 2024 when Aaron Rodgers will be back.
A number of the top teams from my top five list from last week are returning from Bye Weeks so there is not a massive change in the standings.
1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1): we are going to learn plenty about the Eagles in Week 11 as they take part in a Super Bowl rematch.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2): the winner of that Monday Night Football game is going to be the number one team in these standings next week.
3) Detroit Lions (7-2): I had them down at number four last week, but a good win on the road at the Chargers and a healthier looking team pushes them up one place.
4) San Francisco 49ers (6-3): health is the key for the 49ers and they looked rejuvenated out of their Bye Week. A crushing road win over the Jaguars in Chase Young's debut pushes the 49ers right back amongst the elite in the NFL.
5) Baltimore Ravens (7-3): there are a number of teams that could have placed here after the Ravens lost to the Cleveland Browns in disappointing fashion in Week 10. A response is expected from Baltimore and we will know much more about this team, which is dealing with injuries, after a big Thursday Night Football game coming up.
The halfway mark is passed and the majority of teams have completed their Bye Weeks, which means the focus will be very much on building some momentum towards the PlayOffs.
The AFC remains very competitive right up and down the Divisions, while some separation is beginning to be seen in the NFC. These situations can change in a couple of weeks, but you could probably pick five of the seven NFC PlayOff teams right now with confidence and even the extra couple of places could be shored up sooner than later.
On the other side, teams like the Denver Broncos at 4-5 may feel they still have an opportunity to push into the Wild Card places and so games within that Conference are going to feel that much more important.
Selections in Week 11 begin with the Thursday Night Football AFC North game and this thread will have further Picks added to it over the next couple of days.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: We are at that time of the season when you begin to see some separation within Divisions and ultimately Conferences. In Week 10 it was stated that if the season was to end, the AFC North would have four teams featuring in the PlayOffs, while all four teams still have a winning record.
However, the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) will be looking to bounce back from incredibly disappointing defeats.
The Ravens blew a big home lead in the Fourth Quarter in a loss to Divisional rivals Cleveland Browns and have dropped to 2-2 in the AFC North, while only holding a narrow lead over the aforementioned Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Things did not feel much better for the Cincinnati Bengals who were upset by the Houston Texans and have actually dropped behind the Texans in the overall Conference standings.
It makes this Week 11 Thursday Night Football clash take on even more importance and games like this one could be pivotal in the final standings shake up.
Injuries have hurt both of these teams after Week 11 and there is little doubt that a short week will likely mean some key players will be missing out.
So while the Baltimore Ravens would love to get back to basics and run the ball effectively through Gus Edwards and Quarter Back Lamar Jackson, it might be a tougher task without some key Offensive Linemen. Ronnie Stanley will be a huge miss for the Ravens, even if Morgan Moses is expected back, and the Ravens may not be able to exploit the run Defense of the Bengals as much as they would if they were fully healthy.
Even then, you have to expect the Ravens to have success running the ball, while Lamar Jackson will be grateful that Sam Hubbard has been ruled out for the Bengals. Trey Hendrickson is going to play, but it should mean Jackson is able to bounce back from the mistakes made that ultimately cost Baltimore the win over the Cleveland Browns.
The Offensive passing game has yet to really operate at a level that many would have hoped, but Lamar Jackson is throwing into a Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It should help the Ravens if Jackson is in third and manageable when looking down the field and Baltimore have scored at least 30 points in four games in a row as they prepare to try and beat the Bengals for a second time this season.
Doing so will be tough and Joe Burrow is much healthier now than when the teams met in mid-September.
However, Burrow will be without Tee Higgins and the Ravens have a Defensive unit that have played very well this season, even with the capitulation against the Browns in mind. They were not helped by the Offense struggling as they did, and the potential absence of Marlon Humphrey is a big blow, but the Ravens have to believe they can make enough stops to edge this game.
Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is important for Baltimore and they will look to at least lock down Joe Mixon as a runner, although he can still be a threat as a pass catching Running Back.
They can bring some pressure against Joe Burrow, although this is an elite Quarter Back capable of making plays against the best Defensive units, even without a Receiver like Tee Higgins to help. Ja'Marr Chase has been a little banged up too and so it does feel like a challenging game for Burrow and the Bengals on a short week.
Trusting the Baltimore Ravens after what we saw last week is not easy, but you also have to remember they blew out the likes of the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks in home games before that. They are banged up and Divisional games in the AFC North have a habit of becoming tight and competitive right to triple zeroes.
It has been the Cincinnati Bengals who have gotten the better of recent meetings between these AFC North rivals, but the short week may favour the home team as both teams look to overcome being without some banged up bodies.
Both of these teams have been strong bouncing back from a loss, while they have strong trends as the home favourite/road underdog respectively.
My edge is with the Baltimore Ravens Defensive unit being able to make one or two bigger plays than their Cincinnati counterparts and that may make the difference in a pivotal Divisional game.
It would have been very nice if we could have gotten Baltimore below a key number, but the feeling is that they still cover and remain in control of this tough Division.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Double digit spreads are usually there to be opposed, but it has not been a bad approach for the NFL Picks this season to back big favourites to cover in the right spots.
This might be the right spot for the Miami Dolphins (6-3) who return from the Bye Week with their position at the top of the AFC East strengthened as the Buffalo Bills continue to struggle. They do have to avoid thinking ahead to a Black Friday clash with the New York Jets, which is a new addition to the NFL schedule, but losing in Germany to the Kansas City Chiefs and having two weeks to think about that should mean a big effort is put together by the Dolphins.
Mike McDaniels has made it clear that there is an importance to winning the Division and earning at least one home PlayOff game, while the remaining schedule is one that could see Miami push much higher than a Number 4 Seed they currently hold.
Miami will have to respect the fact that the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) have won two in a row and are still firmly in the Wild Card race in the AFC, while interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce is earning a lot more respect from those in the Raiders locker room than predecessor Josh McDaniels.
However, the Raiders are playing with a rookie Quarter Back these days and wins over the two New York teams is not something that is going to impress that many people.
The expectation is that Miami will return from the Bye Week looking a bit healthier and they do match up pretty well with the Raiders from their Defensive standpoint. Shutting down Josh Jacobs is very important and the Miami Defensive Line have played the run pretty well through the entirety of the season and that will force the pressure onto the shoulders of Aidan O'Connell.
Completely clamping down on Jacobs is not going to be easy, but the Dolphins can do enough up front and then believe their scoring power may force the Raiders to need O'Connell's arm to keep up. He has a big time Receiver in Davante Adams, but O'Connell has only needed to throw for a little over 350 passing yards to help the Raiders win their last couple of games, while having 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Interception to his name since replacing Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting Quarter Back.
The Jets Secondary gave him problems and Vic Fangio has a healthier Miami Secondary that will certainly believe they can largely control what the Raiders can bring to the field. The pass rush is effective enough to rattle this Vegas Offensive Line and it may be a tough day for the Raiders on this side of the ball playing in the early Eastern Time slot.
Las Vegas have played well Defensively in their last two games, but facing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson is not exactly ideal preparation to deal with the Miami passing attack.
Recent games have just slowed the hype train, but the Dolphins have a stronger looking Offensive Line this week out of their Bye. Injuries have not helped get the run game going, which has been massively important for Miami, although the expectation is that they get back to basics in Week 11 and can pound the Raiders on the ground.
It will be a case of picking your poison for the Raiders considering the top two Receivers Miami will have on the field and Tua Tagovailoa may have enough time to make sure Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle are getting loose in the Secondary. The Dolphins have been massively impressive at home this season, where they are 4-0 against the spread, and they have the scoring power to pull away and put a crushing win on the board before focusing on the New York Jets.
The Raiders have been competitive for much of this season, but their biggest loss was at the Buffalo Bills and Miami might come out and put a big number on them here.
Miami are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight coming out of a Bye Week and beat the Houston Texans by 15 points in Mike McDaniels first season in 2022. Under their current Head Coach, the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite too and all of their home wins have been by at least 14 points.
A backdoor cover is always possible when dealing with a spread of this size, but the Miami Dolphins should be angry with their performance in Germany two weeks ago and they can get on top of the Las Vegas Raiders and force a couple of mistakes from a rookie Quarter Back to ensure a big win.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Time may feel it is running out for both of these teams if they have a genuine ambition of making the PlayOffs.
As we enter Week 11, the Green Bay Packers (3-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) have to get going as the two teams sit in 11th and 12th place in their respective Conferences. Winning Divisions is almost impossible for the teams, but the Wild Card Race has to be targeted, although the pressure is on the Packers and Chargers to put together strong winning runs.
Both come into this game having lost tight games in Week 10, which would have felt like a body blow. Injuries are not aiding either team, while the Green Bay Packers have to try and focus and not concern themselves with their Thanksgiving Day game at the Detroit Lions, which is played in Week 12.
Trading away Aaron Rodgers and turning to Jordan Love has been a real tough transition for the Packers, but the new Quarter Back will be frustrated by the injuries all around him. He is also throwing to a young Receiving corps and the main leaders as far as skill players go have not been available on the Offensive side of the ball.
Out of the two teams, the Chargers have shown a bit more life of late and had won two in a row before losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 10, but the Green Bay Packers fans might be seeing shoots of life from the struggling Offensive unit. This will bode well going into 2024 and Jordan Love and company can at least challenge their visitors, who are well backed by the public.
Aaron Jones is back and that means the Packers can at least rely on the run with Jones and AJ Dillon keys to any success they can put together. This was the plan at the start of the season and they can certainly get something going on the ground against this Chargers Defensive Line, which in turn should mean Jordan Love is able to find a bit more time to operate at Quarter Back.
Slowing down the Chargers pass rush will be an important part of being able to run the ball successfully, while third and manageable is always important for inexperienced Quarter Backs. Jordan Love will know there are some holes in the Chargers Secondary that can be exploited if he is given time and Green Bay look like a team that should be able to move the ball with some consistency throughout this contest.
A couple of weeks ago you might have suggested the same for the Los Angeles Chargers, but injuries have really hurt them on the Offensive side of the ball. Keenan Allen is going to play through the pain, but Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett are all out and Green Bay are going to be bolstered in the Secondary with Jaire Alexander finally expected to suit up.
Justin Herbert is a top Quarter Back and will still find some places to throw the ball, but it is tough being down a number of Receivers that can complement Allen. It also has been difficult for Herbert knowing the Chargers Offensive Line have not been able to open too many running lanes throughout the course of the season and so Austin Ekeler's biggest plays may be as a pass catching Back.
Pittsburgh were able to wear down Green Bay up front last week with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combining for 183 yards on the ground, but it feels less likely that this Chargers team can do that. Kenny Pickett had less success throwing and having Alexander back in the Secondary could mean the home underdog has the edge in this contest.
The Packers failed to cover last week as the underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four in that spot this season.
It tempers some enthusiasm for this selection, although it should be noted that Green Bay are 1-1 against the spread as the home underdog. They are also facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that has not exactly flourished when set as the road favourite and who could overlook a non-Conference opponent when knowing the high-flying Baltimore Ravens are next on deck.
As long as Jordan Love can avoid the mistakes that have proven costly at times, the Green Bay Packers can keep this one close and perhaps even earn the outright upset to move onto the Detroit Thanksgiving Day game with some confidence.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: After big wins in Week 10 to remain on the coat-tails of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, fans of both of these teams would have been walking with a spring in their step.
However, the Cleveland Browns (6-3) fanbase have long anticipated something happening that would knock them out of their stride as they are not allowed to have good things happening with their team.
And on Monday, it happened.
Deshaun Watson played arguably his best game as a member of the team when leading them back to a win over the Ravens on the road, but it was soon revealed that he had picked up a shoulder injury and will miss the rest of the season. After losing Nick Chubb earlier in the season and with injuries ravaging key areas of their Offensive unit, the Browns now go with a backup Quarter Back the rest of the way.
The only surprise is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be given the keys to the Offense rather than PJ Walker. The latter made three starts while Watson was out earlier this season, but his 1 Touchdown and 5 Interceptions perhaps meant the Browns lost faith in him, although Walker was better than Dorian Thompson-Robinson who threw for 121 yards and had 3 Interceptions in his sole start.
Regardless of who will start (or finish) at Quarter Back, the Cleveland Browns know the Defensive unit is going to be key for them. In PJ Walker's three starts, the Browns won twice and they will feel that was down to the performance of the Defense rather than anything Walker was able to put together.
This week Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be tasked with 'not losing' the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3), a team that is massively over-performing compared with their overall numbers.
The Quarter Back would usually want to lean on the run game, but the Steel Curtain has been looking stronger up front in recent games and the focus for Pittsburgh may be to control the Line of Scrimmage and see if a rookie can beat them through the air. There are injuries in the Secondary that may be exploited, but it may be asking too much for Thompson-Robinson to do that, especially with the pass rush that the Steelers are likely to generate against a rookie that will need to go through his progressions when scanning the field.
Mike Tomlin has proven to be a very effective Head Coach and his Steelers team will be able to create chances Defensively, although they will be challenged on the other side of the ball by a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit.
The Steelers look to have gone back to 'old school' Steeler Football as they have leaned on the Offensive Line and two strong Running Backs to make sure the Offensive unit is moving the chains. In recent games there have been signs that the Pittsburgh Offensive Line is picking up their levels and they did rush for almost 200 yards through Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren alone last week against the Green Bay Packers.
Both of the Running Backs are expected to be key as the Steelers go for the road upset that will keep them right behind the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North. It has been made clear that the current levels of performances to produce wins should not be sustainable with Pittsburgh given up more yards than they gain, but the Steelers control the tempo of games and they will look to wear down Cleveland on the ground and then open up some passing lanes for Kenny Pickett.
The Quarter Back has struggled for consistency this season, but the Steelers are trying not to ask too much from Pickett, who has averaged under 160 passing yards per game in their last three games. The fact of the matter is that the Steelers have won the last two of those with that conservative approach and Mike Tomlin will not want his Quarter Back taking too many chances with a Browns Secondary that have thrived on creating Interceptions.
Turnovers are likely to be key to the outcome of this game and so playing a clean one when throwing the ball is vitally important.
After what we have seen from the backup Quarter Backs in Cleveland, you have to give a lean to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the further addition being that the public are behind the home team.
Having the chance to oppose them here is not a bad thing, while Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have the best cover percentage as an underdog of any team in the NFL since taking over as Head Coach ahead of the 2007 season (55-32-5). Since Ben Roethlisberger retired, Pittsburgh are 7-3 against the spread as the road underdog and the feeling is that they will have a game plan that will frustrate either of the two Cleveland Quarter Backs that may end up taking snaps in this one.
Next week the Steelers face another backup Quarter Back against a AFC North rival so this is the chance for them to make hay and really begin to cement a PlayOff spot, even as a Wild Card team.
The Browns will play hard for their backup Quarter Back and they are 2-0 against the spread as the home favourite, but the Steelers may match up effectively with them in Week 11 and earn the road upset.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The team are going to get an incredibly high Draft Pick barring a strong turnaround in form from the Carolina Panthers, but players do not think about what a franchise is going to do in the future. Instead, the Chicago Bears (3-7) come out of a mini-Bye with a 2-2 record in the absence of Justin Fields.
In Week 11, Fields is back on the, er, field, for the Chicago Bears as they look to spoil some of the fun for NFC North leaders Detroit Lions (7-2). At one point it felt like the Lions were going to dominate their Divisional rivals, but the Minnesota Vikings are creating a challenge within the North and the Lions will have to face them twice in the final three weeks of the regular season.
No will be looking that far ahead, but Thanksgiving Day could be a distraction with the Lions set to host the Green Bay Packers on the short week. They will still be focused on winning a Divisional game of course, but Detroit know they will have a big chance to underline their improvement to a national audience when opening the trio of Thanksgiving Day games.
Unsurprisingly the Chicago Bears have lost a couple of games by wide margins, but this is not an uncompetitive team and they have given Justin Fields plenty of time to return close to full health. That is important for them as they look to give the Lions something to think about in a tough road environment.
His ability to scramble from the Quarter Back position is important for the Bears and there is also the boost that the returning Khalil Herbert can give the running game. In recent games, it has been possible to establish the run against the Lions Defensive Line and having both Fields and Herbert in the backfield gives the Chicago Bears a chance to do that here and control some of the tempo of the game.
Justin Fields may also have a decent game throwing the ball- the Chicago Offensive Line has been pretty good in pass protection in recent games and the Lions are not flooding the backfield like usual, while establishing the run means they will have to be aware of the ability of Fields to get out of the pocket and scramble for First Downs too.
The feeling is the Bears can move the chains and they may also believe they are playing well enough to make the Detroit Lions a little one-dimensional on the other side of the ball.
The Bears Defensive Line has been very strong against the run all season and they may feel they can limit the one-two punch that has been so effective for Detroit all season. David Montgomery will be playing with a bit of fire having been allowed to leave the Bears despite securing 801 yards on the ground for them last season, but the Chicago Defensive Line have been very good defending the run and will look to force the Lions to take to the air.
Jared Goff won't be too concerned about that as the Bears Secondary have not matched the performance of those on the Defensive Line. Little pass rush pressure, even with the addition of Montez Sweat should mean Goff has all of the time he needs to locate some very good Receivers and the Lions should be able to move the ball when it is in their hands.
Of course the Bears may feel they can clamp down in the red zone and force Field Goals rather than Touchdowns, while a team throwing out of third and long on a semi-consistent basis makes it tough to keep converting.
You still have to expect the Lions to win and they have a solid 6-2 record against the spread when set as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season.
They have also dominated the NFC North in that time with a perfect 7-0 record against the spread compared with a Chicago team that are 1-7 against the spread in Divisional games. It does not make me feel much better knowing the Bears are 0-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing off a win and the Detroit Lions are plenty dangerous Offensively.
However, it does feel the most likely spot where you may get a relatively flat performance from the Lions, while the Bears should have had plenty of time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. Having those extra days and with Justin Fields returning at Quarter Back, coupled with the fact the Lions are returning home from a West Coast game with Thanksgiving Day looming large, and you have to feel the Bears can make this many points count.
It may need a backdoor cover to finally get over the line, but it looks a good situation for the Chicago Bears to do that with over a Touchdown worth of points in the bank.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 7 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
