Midweek Football Picks 2017 (February 14-16)

The last two months for the football picks have been embarrassingly bad, but I am not getting any breaks when it looks like I have been in a position to get those. Too often missed chances have cost me massively when I've needed just a single goal to get back on track, while some of my picks have been terrible over that time which has put the season into a deep hole.

I do need to be better with my selections, but it would be really useful to get a little luck behind me over the next six weeks before the international break and begin turning around what had been a promising season which is turning into a big negative.


Derby County v Cardiff City Pick: Saturday proved to be a tough day for the home teams, but I am going to back three of those teams that did let me down.

The first of those is Derby County who have maintained their unbeaten run at home after coming back from 0-3 down to earn a 3-3 draw with Bristol City. This is a team who have scored more goals in recent weeks than they have shown over the course of the season and I think Derby County will feel they have some momentum going into this game having scored three goals to earn the draw.

They have to be careful with Cardiff City who had an impressive 0-2 win at Leeds United on Saturday, but this is a team that has been inconsistent away from home. Cardiff City did play well at Elland Road, but they will have to go hard again and this time I will look for Derby County to do enough to win the three points.


Leeds United v Bristol City Pick: It was a really disappointing performance from Leeds United on Saturday but they have shown they can bounce back and produce their best at Elland Road over the course of the season. They were beaten 0-2 by Newcastle United here in the League and beat Aston Villa in their next home game and I am looking for a similar reaction here.

That won't be easy when you think of how many goals Bristol City have been able to score, although The Robins have been vulnerable at the back and look like a team whose confidence can quickly shatter when they do conceded.

Leeds United do have a very good home record against Bristol City in recent years and I think they can be a little too strong for them here. Odds against quotes for Leeds United to win at home looks tempting enough despite the setback on Saturday and I will look for them to win this time.


Reading v Brentford Pick: Home form is going to be so important for all the teams chasing their spots in the Premier League and Reading have to bounce back from a goalless draw with Barnsley at the weekend. They have been much better at home than on their travels and Reading will be looking to take advantage of Brentford's poor recent form.

This has been a fixture that has proven difficult for Reading in recent seasons having lost 3 in a row at home against Brentford and also being crushed 4-1 at Griffin Park earlier this season.

However Brentford have lost 5 of their last 7 away games in the League and this is a team that has struggled defensively. Brentford have won at Brighton in the Championship this season, but generally have found it difficult when facing the best teams in the Division and I think Reading can have a little too much for them.

At odds against this is the third team who I did back on Saturday that let met down who I am expecting to bounce back at home.


Benfica v Borussia Dortmund Pick: This might be the first time in over fifty years that Benfica and Borussia Dortmund will be meeting one another in a competitive tie, but both clubs have become accustomed to playing teams from Germany/Portugal respectively.

Over the last twelve months, Borussia Dortmund have won at Porto (0-1) and Sporting Lisbon (1-2) so there will be a confidence that they can return from Lisbon with themselves in a very strong position to qualify for the Quarter Final.

In the last seven seasons Benfica have played six German sides including having an entertaining 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich here in the Second Round of the Champions League last season. Those games should mean both teams going out onto the field on Tuesday will have a reasonable idea of the level of competition they are facing and the style of play that is going to be employed.

The onus is on Benfica to give themselves a platform for success in Dortmund next month and the feeling is anything less than a win for the Portuguese side won't be enough for the Second Leg. It should mean Benfica push on to score the goals to win this game, but that might suit Borussia Dortmund who have the quality in the final third that can hurt most teams in the tournament.

Borussia Dortmund showed that by winning in Sporting Lisbon in the Group and coming from two goals down to earn a 2-2 draw at Real Madrid. Recent form has to be a big concern for Borussia Dortmund as they have slipped in the Bundesliga, but this Benfica side are perhaps not one of the vintage collection having barely got out of the Group Stage.

Their style does mean there should be chances at both ends though and I do think both Benfica and Borussia Dortmund can play their part in a competitive First Leg. The 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous one as that would suit Borussia Dortmund so they could settle for that, but I think Benfica's style may mean opportunities for more goals at both ends.

Games between Benfica and German sides here in recent years have produced at least three goals on a fairly regular basis (5 of last 6), while Borussia Dortmund shared out three goals in their win at Sporting Lisbon. At close to odds against, I will look for that to be the case here.


Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona Pick: Games between Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona have tended to produce plenty of goalmouth action and I would be surprised if that isn't the case when they meet in the French capital on Tuesday in the Champions League Second Round First Leg.

Unai Emery has had plenty of success in the Knock Out Rounds of European football with Sevilla and Paris Saint-Germain will be hoping he can bring that know-how into this Champions League competition. Most of the successes Emery had came at the lower level of the Europa League though and inspiring a win over Barcelona over two Legs is going to be a big challenge for the manager.

He has to know that anything other than a win at home is going to be too big to overcome next month at the Nou Camp. That should mean an attacking formation is set out by Paris Saint-Germain to try and rattle a Barcelona team who have some issues at the back, although the problem is going to be containing the Catalan club at the other end of the field.

Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi are all capable of producing the magic in the final third to hurt Paris Saint-Germain who are missing talisman Thiago Silva at the heart of their own defence.

I did consider backing Barcelona to win here like they did two seasons ago, but I think they will need to score at least twice to do that because it is difficult to imagine Paris Saint-Germain not scoring themselves. Backing at least three goals to be shared out as there has been in all 3 games played in Paris since 2013 is where I will go with this First Leg.


Bayern Munich v Arsenal Pick: This is a critical portion of the Arsenal season, especially for manager Arsene Wenger, as the pressure of collapsing at the business end of the season in previous seasons weighs heavily on their shoulders. After winning their Champions League Group, Arsenal would have hoped for a much better Second Round draw than taking on one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

A few weeks ago this might not have looked the daunting draw it does now as Bayern Munich were just struggling to cope with the new demands Carlo Ancelotti had for the team. Since then they have been winning games for fun and the players are confident they will be stronger in the Champions League where teams won't defend as deep as they try and do in the Bundesliga.

One of the big criticisms of Arsenal is that they do tend to let teams play against them in these big games and that is their downfall more often than not. Anyone who saw the 1-1 draw at Paris Saint-Germain will recognise the amount of space and chances the home side created and that is not going to cut it at Bayern Munich.

The lack of perceived toughness in the big games was evident again in the 3-1 loss at Chelsea a couple of weeks ago and I think it will take something special for Arsenal to come through over the two Legs. The First Leg is important for The Gunners to try and stay in the tie, but I simply think Bayern Munich are playing much better over the last month and they are going to be too good.

I will back Bayern Munich to have a decent lead to take to The Emirates Stadium next month and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.


Real Madrid v Napoli Pick: It has been a long time since the defending Champions have retained the European Cup but Real Madrid do have a real chance of doing that this season. Overlooking Napoli would be a mistake though and this First Leg looks like being one of the best of the entire Second Round.

Real Madrid have not been at their very best in recent weeks but still have the attacking threat to be a danger to any team left in this competition. They have won plenty of games at home over the last few months and it would be a real surprise to me if Real Madrid did not have a lead to take into the Second Leg in Naples next month.

However I very much expect Napoli to play their part having been on a tremendous run since the end of October and winning plenty of games themselves. This is a team that will come at Real Madrid and have shown they can score goals at the very best teams they face and I do think Napoli will get on the scoresheet in this one.

Real Madrid have not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League this season and Napoli have scored in their last 6 away games in this competition. Napoli have scored in their last 9 away games overall which includes at Juventus, Benfica, Fiorentina and Milan and are playing with the kind of confidence that a team needs when visiting Real Madrid.

I am anticipating a few goals in this one, but I will have a small interest on Real Madrid to win the game in which both teams score at least once. I think home advantage will be just enough to take a lead to Italy, but this tie might be far from over by the time they recommence battle in Naples and I am anticipating the best tie of the Second Round to be contested by these two teams.


Gent v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Guessing the kind of team that Tottenham Hotspur are going to pick is a tough ask for this First Leg and that makes them an unappealing price at odds on to win in Belgium. Add in the fact that Tottenham Hotspur have won just 2 of their last 10 away European games and just 2 of their last 13 on their travels overall and it is hard to imagine people rushing out to back them to win here.

On the other hand Tottenham Hotspur should be far too good for a Gent side who are in mid-table in the Belgian top flight and conceded 7 goals in their last couple of European games here against Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting Braga. However this is a team that has scored goals in the Europa League so far this season and I think they can trouble a Tottenham Hotspur defence that are likely to have some changes made.

Over the two Legs I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur will be too good for Gent, but they may have to wait until the Second Leg to finally put their opponents away. They should have the quality, assuming the majority of their starters are picked, to score goals here and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can match what Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting Braga did here, although I also think Gent will cause problems of their own.

6 of the last 7 European games hosted by Gent have produced at least three goals and I think both teams will likely score in this one. The home team have to feel their best bet to move into the Last 16 is winning this game and that might leave spaces for Tottenham Hotspur to exploit too and it could be an entertaining First Leg.

I would keep a keen eye on the Tottenham Hotspur team news for this one knowing they have an FA Cup tie to play on Sunday and Pochettino's previous of playing fringe players in the Europa League. However there should be enough quality in the final third to play their part in this one and I will look for three goals to be shared out at odds against.


Rostov v Sparta Prague Pick: At this time of the season, the majority of the Leagues in Eastern Europe have yet to restart after the 'Winter Break' and so it is hard to find an angle on how teams are performing. The last competitive matches have been played over two months ago, yet they come into this Last 32 Round having to get going immediately.

That factor has negated itself when Rostov and Sparta Prague play one another as neither team has been in competitive action. Both teams have played in the Champions League this season before falling down into the Europa League, although Rostov's run to the Group Stage was the more impressive performance of the two.

I did consider backing Rostov at odds on to win this game when you consider how well they played here earlier in the Champions League. Wins over Ajax and Bayern Munich are very impressive, but I was put off by the draws with Anderlecht and PSV Eindhoven.

One factor that did stand out is that both teams scored in each of those games, while Rostov scored at least twice in those 4 games and also conceded two goals in 3 of those games. In fact Rostov didn't have a clean sheet at home in any of their European games this season while only Atletico Madrid prevented them scoring.

Sparta Prague have shown they can be dangerous going forward and that makes odds against quotes for the home team, who have conceded plenty of goals here, hard to stomach.

However I do think Rostov can win the First Leg although I do think they will need to score twice to do that. Sparta Prague have given the likes of CSKA Moscow and Krasnador some really difficult times in Russia over the last eighteen months and have earned a 2-2 draw at the former and a 0-3 win at the latter and Sparta Prague will feel they can score here.

7 of the last 10 Sparta Prague away games in European competition have also featured at least three goals shared out including in 2 of 3 in the Europa League. Both teams should have chances to score and Rostov have shown they can score and concede goals at home which makes the huge price on at least three goals in this First Leg look far too appealing.


Anderlecht v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: You don't really know how some of teams in the Last 32 of the Europa League are going to react to the long 'Winter Break' they have been on and Anderlecht must feel they have a good chance to get into Zenit St Petersburg. Anderlecht have generally played well at home in the Europa League in recent seasons and they are a team that can score goals.

They will need all of those against Zenit St Petersburg who were scoring plenty in the Group Stage, but this is another step up in class. Anderlecht may take encouragement from the goals Zenit St Petersburg were shipping in their away games in the Group having conceded three times at Maccabi Tel Aviv and AZ Alkmaar and also conceding at Dundalk.

Anderlecht have scored at least twice in each of their 4 home games in the Europa League although they were beaten 0-2 by Rostov in the Champions League here. They did concede in each of their 3 home games in the Group and Anderlecht have only kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home European games.

How quickly Zenit St Petersburg can get into their stride is a key for this First Leg, but it does look like another where the layers might have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals. Picking that to occur would have been a winner in all 4 home Anderlecht games and all 3 away Zenit St Petersburg games in the Europa League this season and both teams scoring also happened in all but one of those games.

The oddsmakers must believe in the First Legs being tight affairs cliche and they aren't too wrong with only 5 of the 16 First Legs in the Europa League last season finishing with three or more goals. However I think both teams can play their part in this one and Anderlecht will be pushing for a lead which may leave spaces and I will back at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.


Athletic Bilbao v APOEL Pick: A team from a weaker European League can be hard to judge when they are performing so well at home and that is where APOEL are. They have been the best team in Cyprus for some time, but APOEL have yet to be able to bridge the gap to the teams in the European competition and not since surprising everyone by reaching the Champions League Quarter Final five seasons ago.

They will need to be at their best to stay in this Last 32 tie after the First Leg when visiting Athletic Bilbao who have been very good at home all season.

Athletic Bilbao score goals at home and that will make them dangerous although they can be a little inconsistent on their travels which may cause problems down the line. They have also played well in the Europa League in recent seasons and Athletic Bilbao scored 9 goals in their three home Europa League Group games.

That attacking threat might be too much for APOEL to handle having conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 away European games. APOEL have shown some attacking threat of their own but this is arguably their toughest opponent they have faced so far and I think Athletic Bilbao will be too good in this First Leg.

The home team will be looking to build a margin of victory to take to Cyprus next week and I will back them to win by a couple of goals on Thursday.


Manchester United v St-Etienne Pick: Manchester United host St-Etienne at Old Trafford for the first time in the First Leg of this Last 32 Europa League tie and Jose Mourinho will be looking for his side to continue their dominance in the Cup competitions. The form at Old Trafford was key for Manchester United to progress to the Last 32 having won all 3 games here in the Group Stage and the side have been very strong at home in the Cup competitions.

The side have won all 8 Cup games played at Old Trafford under Jose Mourinho and I don't think you can ignore the fact that 6 of those have come by at least two goals. Manchester United have had some issues with finishing off the chances they are creating in the Premier League, but that has not been the case so far in the Cup games having scored at least four times in games at Old Trafford against Fenerbahce, Feyenoord, West Ham United, Reading and Wigan Athletic.

You have to expect Mourinho will play a strong side that can get Manchester United into a strong position ahead of the Second Leg which is played in St-Etienne next Wednesday. Getting into that position won't be easy against a St-Etienne team who have improved in each of the last three seasons in the Europa League and who are on a 10 game unbeaten run in this competition and have won 4 of their last 5 away games.

They are also playing well in a French top flight which was represented so well by Paris Saint-Germain earlier this week and St-Etienne have drawn at The Parc des Princes already this season. A narrow defeat at Nice shows St-Etienne can defend well, but this is a huge test for them against a Manchester United team who have been creating plenty of opportunities at Old Trafford.

Since returning to the Europa League in the 2013/14 season, St-Etienne have played 15 away games in the competition and have lost 5 of those but none by more than a single goal margin. That includes games at Lazio and Basel but St-Etienne did have to come from 2-0 down to beat Anderlecht 2-3 in their last away Europa League game.

Their record does have to be respected, but Manchester United have really put their strongest performances in front of goal in the Cup games and I think they will have a little too much for St-Etienne in the First Leg. While I respect the run of games in the Europa League without a loss by more than one goal, I think this is the toughest test they have faced and I expect Manchester United to head to France next week with a margin to defend.

MY PICKS: Derby County @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leeds United @ 2.15 William Hill (2 Units)
Reading @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benfica-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Real Madrid Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.88 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Gent-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rostov-Sparta Prague Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anderlecht-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)

February Update: 9-17, - 12.36 Units (49 Units Staked, - 25.22% Yield)

January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 212-232-9, - 28.11 Units (872 Units Staked, - 3.22% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (February 14-16)

Yeah I know- none of you lot are going to be watching any of the football on Saturday because of Valentine's Day right?

To be fair, there isn't really the most exciting slate of games on offer for viewers because of the FA Cup Fifth Round taking centre stage, even if both live games should be decent enough on Saturday. The big names will all be expected to move through to the Sixth Round, although perhaps not at the first time of asking.


This midweek saw a full Premier League schedule taking place and a late Chelsea winner means they are still very much in pole position when it comes to sorting out the destination of the title this season. Manchester City did secure a vital win at Stoke City and have both Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony returning from the African Cup of Nations before they take the field again, but 7 points is going to be tough to make up now the games are beginning to run down.

I think Manchester City are still capable of winning the title, but they have the harder set of fixtures and would likely need Chelsea to have a deep run in the Champions League and themselves to perhaps not. According to their fan base, the Champions League isn't a big concern and not ahead of the Premier League in a list of priorities, but I have a feeling the owners won't be thinking like that and Manuel Pellegrini needs to find a way to beat Barcelona in the Second Round of the Champions League later this month.


The relegation battle also took another big twist after Queens Park Rangers finally managed to win a game away from home at Sunderland, a result that saw Chris Ramsey being given the managerial reins until the end of the season. That win actually pushed QPR out of the bottom three and sent Aston Villa into those positions, a situation that resulted in Paul Lambert being fired and Tim Sherwood the favourite to take over at about the tenth club this season.

It was no surprise that Aston Villa pulled the trigger on Lambert's sacking because they have been on a downward spiral for some time- I have said before that the mental pressure of actually being in the bottom three at this stage of the season is very tough to overcome, especially when you haven't been in that spot all season, and it has panicked the owner Randy Lerner. I'd say rightly so again because I don't think Lambert was getting any response from his Aston Villa players and the next decision is going to be a huge one to prevent Villa falling into the Championship.

The bottom of the table is very tight is you discount Leicester City for now, whose own managerial situation is bordering on the comedic line. Nigel Pearson was supposedly sacked last weekend, but reinstated by another member of the board and Leicester look like they are going to be relegated as they are now 5 points from safety.

However, there are only 6 points separating Everton in 12th and Burnley in 19th, although Burnley have a horrendous fixture list upcoming, and this looks like a battle that has plenty of life left in it.


The bottom of the table is tight, but the race for the Champions League places figures to be just as much of a battle with the results over the last eight days. Liverpool are back in contention thanks to a late Mario Balotelli winner against Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield on Tuesday night, while neither Manchester United or Southampton look secure in 3rd and 4th place after earning 4 points from a possible 6 over the last week.

It is the performances that might be more of a worry as Manchester United continue to struggle to impose themselves in games and Southampton are finding it tough to win home games. With Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Liverpool right behind, 5 points separate these five teams and it figures to be another fight that likely won't be settled until the final month of the season.


West Brom v West Ham United Pick: The Fifth Round of the FA Cup means teams are only two games away from playing at Wembley Stadium thanks to the continued insistence of the FA that the Semi Finals are to be played in the national stadium. That means the likes of West Brom and West Ham United have to feel they have a great chance of doing that, especially with the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea out of the competition and I think both Tony Pulis and Sam Allardyce will know the importance of this game.

Tony Pulis actually took Stoke City to the Final in 2011, but his priority since coming in as the new manager at The Hawthornes is to make sure that West Brom remain a Premier League side. A 2-0 win over Swansea during the week has boosted their survival hopes, but Queens Park Rangers and Hull City both won so West Brom won't want a replay in this competition, while Pulis may opt to make changes.

On the other hand, Allardyce has made it clear that he wants a strong FA Cup run and will likely name a very strong line up, although West Ham United miss Andy Carroll for the rest of the season. They still have enough attacking talent to maintain the form that has seen them up in 8th place in the Premier League and they can concentrate fully on this game.

West Ham did have to play with ten men for a long time in the goalless draw at Southampton during the week and that might have put a few tired legs amongst the squad, especially with an early Saturday morning kick off to contend with. Whether that makes a difference will be told on the pitch, but I do think West Ham can win for the second time here this season, especially as they are a side that does usually create chances no matter where they play this campaign.

I do have to say that Pulis has made West Brom a tougher team to play against, but he might think about making a few too many changes that gives West Ham the edge in this tie and they have to be worth a small interest to win.


Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City Pick: Mark Hughes had plenty of success as a player in the FA Cup with Manchester United and Chelsea and he won't be taking this competition lightly as manager of Stoke City as he looks to emulate what Tony Pulis did in 2011.

That season saw Stoke City reach the Final of the FA Cup before finding Yaya Toure and Manchester City a little too good and it has taken the best teams in England to knock them out of the FA Cup in recent seasons. Hughes admitted that his Stoke team's best chances of winning silverware comes in the two domestic Cup competitions and that they can't overlook that, especially with a strong enough record in the Premier League to think they will avoid the drop to the Championship.

Stoke are an established Premier League team so they should think about winning silverware, but it won't be easy at Ewood Park where Blackburn Rovers have scored plenty of goals and dismissed Swansea in the Fourth Round. However, they were aided by a 7th minute sending off of Kyle Bartley and you have to believe that Stoke City won't be in such a disadvantageous position.

There is no doubt that the likes of Jordan Rhodes and Rudy Gestede provide a real threat for Blackburn, and in previous years I would certainly look at a game like this and wonder about the chances of an upset. However, Stoke have actually improved away from the Brittania Stadium markedly this season and will have the pace in the forward positions to give Blackburn plenty to think about if they push too far forward and I think I will have a small interest in Stoke getting this done at the first time of asking.


Derby County v Reading Pick: Steve McClaren might not see the FA Cup as the number one priority for Derby County this season, but being two games away from Wembley and having a home draw at this stage of the competition is tough to ignore. He has made changes to his team in the last couple of Rounds, but you have to feel that McClaren picks as strong a team as possible to make sure Derby County move into the Sixth Round without needing a replay.

A home draw is all Derby could have hoped for at this stage, especially as they have been given a draw against one of the sides below them in the League pyramid. However, Reading have been an improving side under Steve Clarke and really have nothing but the FA Cup to play for the rest of the way.

They have already won at Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City in the Cup this season, but neither of those sides are of the level of Derby County and this is going to be a tough game for Reading. Even getting the game back to the Majedski Stadium would have to be seen as an achievement for Reading, but that might also be beyond them considering how well Derby have played at the iPro Stadium.

Derby have already beaten Reading here in the other Cup competition this season and also crushed them away from home in the League, both times without conceding a goal. I expect they will take this game seriously enough to move through to the last eight and provide another boost in confidence to take into their next League games.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: This looks a fascinating Fifth Round tie and is the tie of the Round in the FA Cup this weekend as Crystal Palace host Liverpool. The winner of the tie will certainly feel they have every chance of going all the way in the competition and I expect both Alan Pardew and Brendan Rodgers to put a lot of effort into helping their sides win this at the first time of asking.

Of the two managers, Pardew has to feel his Crystal Palace team will have their best opportunity to beat Liverpool at home, while Rodgers won't want to add to an already congested fixture list for Liverpool by having to play a replay at Anfield in two weeks time.

Pardew will look to offer his own experiences to the Crystal Palace players having been taken into the fans' hearts with the extra time winning goal against Liverpool in the FA Cup Semi Final in 1990. That has never been forgotten by the fans in the classic 4-3 win for Crystal Palace, although it will be a big task for his team to match that feat. As well as Crystal Palace have played since Pardew came in, they are facing an in-form Liverpool side and matching the win from earlier this season won't come easy.

I do like the pace that Palace have in the forward positions and they do create chances at home, but defensively there are still some issues for the home team that the likes of Daniel Sturridge, Raheem Sterling and Phillipe Coutinho will look to exploit.

Goals have not been much of a problem for Liverpool of late with the amount of chances they create, but they do look a short price considering they have failed to win any of their last 6 visits to Selhurst Park. The fact is that Crystal Palace have won 4 of those 6 games, including earlier this season, so the short prices on Liverpool don't look attractive enough.

Both teams should create their chances and I think both teams can score- I don't expect either manager to take a backward step in this game as they look to move into the Sixth Round at the first time of asking and so backing at least three goals from this game looks the call. The last 3 games between Crystal Palace and Liverpool at Selhurst Park have produced a combined 12 goals and I think the price is good enough.


Bradford City v Sunderland Pick: The way that Bradford City stormed back to beat Chelsea has to raise the questions as to what they are doing outside of the top six in League One and that might come down to their 6 home losses from 15 League games played at Valley Parade this season. That would be a concern for them in trying to back up the win over Chelsea by beating another Premier League side, although they won't have a better chance against a Sunderland team that is going to be shell-shocked by their home loss against Queens Park Rangers.

I expect Gus Poyet will still play a strong team in this one despite his side being dragged back down to the relegation dogfight in the Premier League following that loss, and that quality should give them the edge in the match. However, I think Sunderland are going to be under a lot of pressure in this one and the expectation of winning might play into their minds too.

Bradford City are a lively outsider in this one and they will certainly believe they have the beating of Sunderland despite being a lot lower than them in the League pyramid. Over the last couple of years, Phil Parkinson has found the right formula to take down Premier League teams in Cup competitions, although it is going to be tough for them against a usually solid Sunderland team.

The odds against quotes on Sunderland winning this game does look like it could be a big price in hindsight, but I think this is going to be a very difficult tie for them. It may just need Sunderland to take this back to the Stadium of Light to get the job done and I think the draw is worth a small interest.


Arsenal v Middlesbrough Pick: Aitor Karanka was a strange appointment by Middlesbrough last season, but the former Real Madrid defender and Assistant Manager is exceeding expectations in his first full year at the helm at the Riverside Stadium. There is plenty of football still to be played, but Middlesbrough lead the Championship and have already come away from Manchester City with a 0-2 FA Cup win.

That should be enough to focus Arsenal on the task at hand in this Fifth Round tie despite being the favourites to win the FA Cup for the second successive season after the exits of Manchester City and Chelsea. A home draw seems to have come at the right moment of the season with plenty of days between games and so Arsene Wenger can play as strong a team as he likes.

It should be the key for Arsenal to progress at the first time of asking and I do think their pace is going to be an issue for Middlesbrough to deal with. As well as they did in beating Manchester City, it took an inspired performance from Tomas Mejias, the second choice goalkeeper, to keep Middlesbrough from being a couple of goals down by half time in that game.

If Arsenal are a little more clinical than Manchester City were that day last month, I would expect the Gunners to have too much firepower for the Championship leaders. Going ahead will only open the door for the speedy counter-attacks that makes Arsenal so dangerous, although the concern would be if they play as poorly defensively as they did against Leicester City.

However, Aitor Karanka has used his full squad in the FA Cup this season, even in the game at the Etihad Stadium, and I would be surprised if Middlesbrough can ride their luck for a second consecutive Round. Confidence is high which can help teams make their own luck, but Arsenal should be too strong and I like them to come through with a couple of goals separating the sides at least.


Preston North End v Manchester United Pick: This looks like an FA Cup tie that is going to be far from easy for Manchester United if you consider the way they had to huff and puff in their away games at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United in the last two Rounds of the competition. Both of those games saw Manchester United have to ride out a storm before coming through and I expect Preston North End to make things very awkward for Louis Van Gaal's men on Monday evening.

The likes of Kevin Davies will thrive on long balls that will look to unsettle the Manchester United back line, while Joe Garner has been a consistent threat at the lower level and will want to prove what he is capable of against Premier League opposition.

Both will pose their problems, but Manchester United should at least feel a little easier at Deepdale than they did at Huish Park and the Abbey Stadium because the facilities are better here. The pitch isn't as constricted as it was at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United and that should at least allow the quality players to show what they can do.

The problem has been that those 'quality' players have been struggling for Manchester United in recent weeks to really impose themselves and I expect that might be the case on Monday too. It might take them a little while to get to grips with what Preston North End are producing and the difference in quality may not show up until the second half.

That has happened in both previous FA Cup ties for Manchester United with the second half away performances being better than the first half as their host have tired. Against Yeovil Town it proved to be the difference maker in a 0-2 win, but Cambridge United managed to hold out and force the replay.

Preston are better than both of those teams, so I would expect they are going to perhaps last a little longer than those teams too. However, I do think the Manchester United quality can come through without needing to take this game back to Old Trafford and I think backing this game to be a draw at half time before Manchester United win could pay dividends.

MY PICKS: West Ham United @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stoke City @ 2.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Derby County @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bradford City-Sunderland Draw @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester United FT @ 4.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

February Update: 4-9, - 10.24 Units (25 Units Staked, - 40.96% Yield)

January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)