Last week was a tough one for the Tennis Picks and that has dented some of the early numbers, which have been updated below.
At least Tuesday proved to be a decent start to the next set of tournaments to be completed before the entire Tour moves to Indian Wells.
The opening selections on Wednesday are from the ATP Dubai event, but any additions from the other ATP 500 event in Acapulco will be added to this thread.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A crushing win in the First Round has moved Daniil Medvedev into a match with a veteran having one last hurrah on the Tour.
As far as we know, Stan Wawrinka is going to be retiring at the end of the 2026 season, even if some are speculating that he may choose to play on if he can maintain the current levels being produced. He has been able to rejoin the top 100 of the World Rankings and Wawrinka had little issue in coming through his own First Round match, although the level of opponent picks up considerably on Wednesday.
The older player has been relying very much on the strong serving to put himself in a position to win matches, but Stan Wawrinka has found it very difficult on the return. That has led to plenty of defeats in 2026, but he is outperforming expectation levels and Stan Wawrinka has a 2-3 record on the hard courts when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents.
Daniil Medvedev has been struggling to back up his own serve as effectively as he will need if he is going to win big titles, but there has been little wrong with the return.
In the First Round, Medvedev broken the Juncheng Shang serve four times and ended up producing a comfortable win over Stan Wawrinka when these two last faced one another on the Tour in Rotterdam in February 2025.
The line is a dangerous one if Stan Wawrinka continues to serve as well as he has been in the opening weeks of the season.
However, you do have to feel that Daniil Medvedev can force his way into enough rallies to eventually create the Break Points needed to have a chance of covering and he can wear down the veteran over the course of a couple of hours on the court in Dubai.
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: It has been a difficult start to 2026 for Jenson Brooksby who had suffered opening Round defeats in Melbourne, Dallas and Doha. Prior to the arrival in Dubai, Brooksby had only earned a single win on the Tour in 2026 and that was against an opponent Ranked way outside the top 500.
It makes his First Round win in this tournament feel really important and especially as it came against an in-form Zizou Bergs.
Now the American has to face another player who is producing some confident tennis when taking on Karen Khachanov- last week Khachanov reached the Doha Quarter Final before losing in a tough battle against Carlos Alcaraz. Karen Khachanov has to be really happy about his run in Doha and the World Number 16 has been playing with more confidence compared with his opponent.
Holding onto 89% of his service games will always give Karen Khachanov a chance to win matches.
You may not always see Karen Khachanov as a really strong return player, but his numbers on the hard courts have tended to be solid enough. We have not seen him find the consistency on the return in 2026 compared with the numbers he has produced in recent years, but Khachanov may feel he can put plenty of pressure on Jenson Brooksby and his 78% service games held mark.
Two previous matches on the hard courts have ended with each of these players winning once- the most recent of those have been won by Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati last summer as the Tour continued building up towards the final Grand Slam of the season.
Prior to that, Jenson Brooksby beat Khachanov in Indian Wells, but that was back in 2022 and it is the higher Ranked player who looks to be putting together enough quality tennis to frank the victory earned on the hard courts several months ago.
Tallon Griekspoor-Alexander Bublik over 0.5 Tie-Breakers: This is going to be the fifth time that these two opponents are meeting on the Tour and it is Alexander Bublik who has won all of the previous four.
All of those wins have been on the hard courts with the most recent being right here in Dubai two years ago and Alexander Bublik looks to be playing with a lot more joy and confidence on the hard courts.
That has seen him open 2026 with a 12-3 record on a surface that Bublik has openly disparaged, and he has been really dominant behind serve with 88% of service games ending holds. This has been the important part of the wins that have been produced, but Bublik still needs to find some improvement on the return of serve with just 18% of return games ending with a Break.
He will know what to expect from Tallon Griekspoor, although Bublik will have to respect the fact that the World Number 25 looks to have fully come out of a slump in form to open the season.
Tallon Griekspoor lost his first four matches this year, including his opening match at the Australian Open, but he has reached a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts of Montpellier and Rotterdam. Those are indoor hard court events, but Griekspoor is going to hope he can continue to find some rhythm on the serve with the full knowledge that his return has not been good enough or consistent enough on the hard courts.
In 2026, Griekspoor has only broken in 10% of return games played and you have to believe that the serve is going to be extremely important for both players.
In the previous four matches, Tallon Griekspoor and Alexander Bublik have competed in nine sets- six of those have needed Tie-Breakers, including both played here in Dubai a couple of years ago and they may need at least one in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Tallon Griekspoor-Alexander Bublik Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 1.63 Units (2 Units Staked, + 81.50% Yield)
Season 2026: 54-44, + 9.96 Units (164 Units Staked, + 6.07% Yield)
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