The tournaments since the Australian Open have been a little up and down for the Tennis Picks, but this one has been a strong bounce back ahead of the back to back hard court Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami.
The focus has been on the ATP Dubai event and the two Semi Final selections can be read below.
Full markets for the tournaments that are taking place in the United States, Mexico and Chile will not be out until Friday morning (United Kingdom time) so any selections from those events will be added to this thread.
Felix Auger Aliassime-Daniil Medvedev over 0.5 Tie-Breakers: All four Semi Finalists in Dubai have been playing some exceptional tennis this week and there may be very little between them.
The first Semi Final looks a really competitive one when Felix Auger Aliassime, the Number 1 Seed, takes on Daniil Medvedev, the Number 3 Seed.
In three wins each, the two players have combined to lose serve just three times and the numbers have been very solid. Felix Auger Aliassime has held 97% of service games played and has been winning 75% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev has 91% and 69% marks in both categories.
No one will be very surprised to hear that Medvedev has had the superior return numbers, but he has also faced much weaker opposition compared with Felix Auger Aliassime.
The initial meetings on the Tour had been dominated by Daniil Medvedev, but Felix Auger Aliassime won the last completed match at the Paris Olympics a little over eighteen months ago. Last year he beat Medvedev when the Russian retired at the end of the first set in Doha, but the previous seven hard court matches have all been won by Daniil Medvedev.
Felix Auger Aliassime has really struggled to impose his serve in those previous hard court matches, while also having difficulty dealing with the Daniil Medvedev serve. That is perhaps the main reason he is set as the narrow underdog, but this should be close considering what we have seen from both players, not only here in Dubai, but in general over the last month.
The high level performances of both players should mean they are both operating with a lot of confidence and that could make this a really competitive Semi Final.
It may be one that features at least one Tie-Breaker with the expectation that there may be very little between these high Ranked rivals.
My narrow edge is with Daniil Medvedev and the superior return game, but Felix Auger Aliassime has served well enough to deserve a lot of respect.
Andrey Rublev-Tallon Griekspoor over 0.5 Tie-Breakers: There was very little form put together by Tallon Griekspoor prior to the tournament beginning in Dubai and so his appearance in the Semi Final is something of a surprise.
However, the Dutchman will point to some strong numbers in the three wins this week, which have included a couple of wins over opponents Ranked Number 10 and Number 13.
Tallon Griekspoor has held 97% of his service games played at the tournament and he has only allowed four Break Points in three matches- he will need to continue producing at that level if he is going to earn an upset and reach the Final.
The World Number 25 has long been someone who has struggled on the return, but he can build scoreboard pressure behind strong serving. At the tournament, Tallon Griekspoor has only broken in 19% of return games played and has won 36% of return points played and now has to face Andrey Rublev, who has opened 2026 in really strong form on the hard courts.
A 10-3 start to the year will have given Andrey Rublev a lot of confidence ahead of the back to back Masters events which are going to be played over the next month, but he will want to reach a Final.
Last week a close loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the Semi Final in Doha would have hurt, but Andrey Rublev has continued operating at a high level.
Much like his opponent, Andrey Rublev has held 97% of his service games played, although he has been challenged a little bit more with eight Break Points faced.
There is a clear edge in favour of Rublev when it comes to the return of serve, while he has beaten Tallon Griekspoor in all three previous matches on the Tour.
It has been almost two years since they faced one another and Andrey Rublev was a top ten Ranked player in all three previous matches, while the closest contest was on the Doha hard courts in 2023.
In that match, Andrey Rublev was the slightly stronger server and that may be the case in this Semi Final, although like the first, it could be competitive at least for a while. This may be another match in which at least one Tie-Breaker is needed to separate two players who have been using the conditions very effectively and you have to believe the serving power is going to put both in a position to roll through some games without feeling much pressure.
This may end up focusing the two to get to at least one Tie-Breaker and that could be pivotal to the outcome of the contest.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime-Daniil Medvedev Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev-Tallon Griekspoor Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 7-1, + 5.29 Units (8 Units Staked, + 66.13% Yield)
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