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Thursday, 26 February 2026

Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 26th February)

The selections this week have been focusing on the ATP Dubai tournament, but the events in Acapulco and Santiago are moving into the business end too.

Of course the Final in the Middle East events are scheduled for Saturday so Dubai is a little further along compared with the other tournaments.

Any selections from the other two events will be added to this thread on Thursday, but there are three picks from the ATP Dubai Quarter Final matches that are set to be played through the day.


Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: This has been a solid couple of days for Daniil Medvedev, but he will not want to lose any momentum in Dubai with solid Ranking Points on offer.

It is also an opportunity for Daniil Medvedev to regain a bit of lost confidence and perhaps win a second title of the season before the Tour moves to North America for two big Masters events. He is not going to be able to crack the top ten again in the World Rankings, but Medvedev has some important Ranking Points to protect at the Indian Wells Masters and would love to head to California with another trophy to add to his collection.

Two strong wins have shown the Daniil Medvedev strength.

The first serve has been a big weapon, and it has allowed the World Number 11 to have a real aggressive approach to the return, which has resulted in at least four Breaks in each match won. Daniil Medvedev has been keeping opponents under constant pressure with his return of serve and that is going to be the ambition he will be looking to show once again in this Quarter Final.

Credit has to be given to Jenson Brooksby for winning a couple of matches here this week having shown little form prior to the tournament beginning in Dubai.

He may not have impressed as much as Medvedev, but Jenson Brooksby has not dropped serve this week and that will give him some confidence to take into the match.

The level has been higher than what has been seen in the 2026 season and so Brooksby may be playing with a bit more belief in what he is trying to do.

Even then, it may be asking too much for the World Number 49 to find the right tennis to earn an upset and it could also be tough for Jenson Brooksby to keep the scoreboard competitive if things start poorly.

When these two players met previously on the Tour, it was Daniil Medvedev who ended up pulling away after a competitive first set, but this one could potentially be a bit more routine.


Felix Auger Aliassime-Jiri Lehecka over 0.5 Tie Breakers: A poor run Down Under that culminated in a First Round exit at the Australian Open in a match that Felix Auger Aliassime was unable to finish will have been a cause for concern for his fans.

Those have been eased after the Canadian returned to the Tour to win the title in Montpellier and follow up by reaching the Rotterdam Final before coming up short against Alex De Minaur.

Two wins in the tournament in Dubai has maintained the strong form and Felix Auger Aliassime will move into the top six of the World Rankings by winning the title in Dubai. The serve has been a huge weapon in 2026 with 92% of games ending in holds and Auger Aliassime has impressed by finding a Break in 20% of return games played.

Throughout his career, Felix Auger Aliassime has struggled for consistency on the return and so his form this year will offer a huge amount of encouragement.

The Quarter Final will not be easy against Jiri Lehecka who also struggled through the opening weeks of the season before finding some form last week. He reached the Quarter Final in Doha and has backed that up in Dubai, although Jiri Lehecka has benefited by beating two opponents Ranked outside of the top 100.

Felix Auger Aliassime deserves to be favourite, but the two hard court matches between the players have both been dominated by the server.

In those, Auger Aliassime has held 97% of service games played and Lehecka is at 92% and you have to feel that this is going to be a match where both should be able to roll through service games.

These two players have had to play seven sets on the hard courts against one another and four of those have needed a Tie-Breaker to determine the outcome.

It certainly looks overpriced to have at least one Breaker in this Quarter Final with the serving prowess that both possess and that looks the right play.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: He has always been a comfortable performer on the hard courts, but Andrey Rublev had a dip in form in 2025. With that in mind, Andrey Rublev will be much happier with the way things have begun in 2026 and he will make a big move back towards the top ten in the World Rankings if he can win the title in Dubai.

He has twice reached the Semi Final in hard court events this season and Andrey Rublev is looking to at least match that run by coming through this Quarter Final and backing up the run in Doha.

Holding serve in 89% of service games and backing that up with Breaks in 25% of return games will make Andrey Rublev tough to beat and he gave Carlos Alcaraz something to think about in coming up short last week.

In two wins this week, Andrey Rublev has yet to drop serve, but he has perhaps not been as composed when the Break Points have come his way. Five Breaks have been secured in two wins, but Andrey Rublev has needed 25 Break Points to do that and he will need to be a little more efficient against a server like Arthur Rinderknech.

The World Number 31 did win a match at the United Cup, but he had lost early in Melbourne, Rotterdam and Doha and wins over two players who were Ranked 200 or lower in the Davis Cup would not have given Arthur Rinderknech much confidence. That makes the two wins here in Dubai will have been a boost, especially the victory over Jack Draper who is Ranked considerably higher than the Frenchman.

Arthur Rinderknech has dropped a set in both wins this week, but his serve is still a big weapon with 89% of games ending in holds.

He has offered little in the returning department, but has made use of the moments when Rinderknech has found a way into those returning games here in Dubai.

It may be more difficult to do that against Andrey Rublev who has won all three previous matches against Arthur Rinderknech and all of those have been on the hard courts.

The lower Ranked player has not only struggled for consistency on the return, but Arthur Rinderknech has allowed Andrey Rublev to Break in 30% of return games played against him.

In the 2024 US Open, Arthur Rinderknech will have felt he should have beaten Andrey Rublev having moved two sets ahead, but the current form suggests this one should be a match that the World Number 18 can eventually control and cover the handicap set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Felix Auger Aliassime-Jiri Lehecka Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.53 Units (5 Units Staked, + 50.60% Yield)

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