This is the last NFL Week of the season where there are teams on Byes and that means the focus has ramped up considerably when it comes to the Playoff race.
Some Divisions are wide open, but the Wild Card race is already beginning to see some separation after Thanksgiving Weekend and the pressure is on teams with some big games ahead.
The opening game of the Week 14 schedule is one of those that feels like an early Playoff game when the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions face off- the winner will certainly feel they can push into the post-season, but the loser would have not only lost ground on those above them, but would have another tie-breaker to overcome.
With the design of the NFL schedule, there are always big games left over in the final weeks of the season as Divisional battles lead the way,
It has been a poor season for the NFL Picks, the first in a while, although there is still plenty of time to turn things around.
However, losing another week would be a blow after a tough Sunday in Week 13 and the selections below need to return a solid return to just give the Picks some momentum if nothing else.
Opening up with a selection from Thursday Night Football, further Picks will be added to this thread in the days ahead.
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions Pick: This is not going to be like a traditional short week for teams preparing to play on Thursday Night Football and that is because both the Detroit Lions (7-5) and Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) played last week on Thanksgiving Day.
Results could not have been any different for the two teams- the Lions lost another Divisional game to rivals Green Bay and that makes it very difficult to see how Detroit can win the NFC North now. However, the defeat was actually one that has a big impact on their hopes of even earning a Wild Card spot and if the Playoffs were to start today, the Lions would not be involved.
This makes this Week 14 game hugely important, but even more so when considering the Dallas Cowboys did earn an important win on Thanksgiving Day, which keeps them alive in the NFC East and in the Wild Card race. The Cowboys have put pressure on themselves to try and win out, and that may still be the only way into the post-season, but three wins in a row have given them real momentum and Dallas might be very tough to stop.
Offensively you can only admire how they are playing right now from Quarter Back to Wide Receivers to Running Back and the Offensive Line.
After seeing how Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers moved the ball with consistency in Week 13, Dallas are going to be very confident that Dak Prescott is going to be able to do the same with two Number 1 level Receivers and a balanced approach to the attack.
The Lions Defensive Line have continued to be pretty good when it comes to playing the run, but injuries in the Secondary are taking a toll.
With limited pass rush pressure being generated, Dak Prescott is going to have all day to find the likes of Jason Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens down the field and this looks a game in which the Cowboys can match the efforts of the last two opponents faced by the Lions who have both scored at least 27 points.
It all adds up to the likelihood of Jared Goff and the Lions Offense to have to step up and keep up on the scoreboard- they did that as well as they could in the defeat to the Green Bay Packers, but injuries are beginning to hurt on this side of the ball and the Quarter Back could be without his top Receiver.
Amon-Ra St. Brown did not play very long in the Thanksgiving Day game and he is seen as a late decision to take part in Week 14, although the lean has to be that he missed out. The Lions are already without Sam LaPorta and Jared Goff may not have the consistent weapons needed in the passing game.
Earlier in the season he could at least have relied on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to rip off some big gains on the ground, but it is impossible to ignore the improvements made by the Dallas Defensive Line after late trades made. The Lions Offensive Line is a little banged up too, which has limited the time being given to Jared Goff when he has stepped back to throw the ball down the field and this Cowboys team looks to be peaking at a very good time, especially with the top of the NFL looking as wide open as it has this season.
Head Coach Dan Campbell has usually gotten his team to bounce back from losses very well and that has to be respected here.
The Lions might be hurt, but they will play hard, although you do have to wonder how they are going to find consistent stops against this Dallas Offense.
Having a hook over the key number 3 would be most appealing, but taking the points with the Dallas Cowboys looks the right play here, especially if Dak Prescott continues to play at his current level.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)
Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)
Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 34-40, - 9.54 Units (74 Units Staked, - 12.89% Yield)
