NFL Week 17 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th December-Monday 29th December)

This thread will be extended ahead of the Saturday selections, but for now the focus is on the Christmas Day games.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: The NFL schedule was put together several months ago and they would have been hoping that this was going to be a pivotal NFC East clash in Week 17 of the regular season.

A primetime spot on Christmas Day is instead being contested by two teams who have had disappointing seasons and allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to become the first repeat Divisional Winner in over twenty years.

At least the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) can say they were pushing the Eagles until earlier this month, but a run of three straight losses has meant elimination.

The Washington Commanders (4-11) have been even bigger disappointments considering they reached the NFC Championship Game and were expected to build on the 2024 successes. Injuries have been a big factor that has worked against the Commanders and they look set to be playing a third string Quarter Back on Thursday.

Josh Johnson will have got some more reps in with the starters, which should help, and he has plenty of experience at the position. However, Johnson has a 1-8 record as a starter in the NFL and at 39 years old, he is not nearly as strong an athlete as he once was, which is going to be problematic for him

Last week, Josh Johnson struggled in relief, although he will feel this is an 'easier' matchup against a Dallas Defensive unit that has been a little inconsistent all season and who may not have the same intensity after elimination as the Philadelphia Eagles had in the Week 16 win over the Commanders.

The Commanders will look to establish the run, although that is an area where the Cowboys have definitely improved as the season has gone on. Injuries in this position has also limited the effectiveness of the Washington ground game and Josh Johnson may not be as willing to scramble as much as he once did.

However, that may not be a bad thing considering the holes that have continued to be exploited in this Cowboys Secondary and even Josh Johnson may have successes. There are some decent skill players around him and Johnson is likely going to have more time in the pocket than he would have had against the Eagles pass rush last week.

Avoiding turnovers is the key and the veteran Quarter Back will note that this Dallas team have struggled to pick up Interceptions all season.

Washington should feel they can move the ball better than they did when Josh Johnson came into the game last week and that is also down to the fact they can prepare the veteran a little better.

At the same time, the Dallas Cowboys have to be really confident that they can have considerable success moving the chains with a well balanced Offensive output.

This should all begin with the Dallas Offensive Line who can push Washington around up front and set up some strong running lanes. Keeping Dak Prescott in third and manageable spots will always feel like a big win for the Cowboys and especially with the tandem of Wide Receivers being amongst the best in the NFL for the Quarter Back to target.

Struggles to stop the ground game has contributed to stronger numbers against the pass in recent games, but the Commanders Secondary have to know that they are facing a significant test this week. For all of the disappointment of missing out on the Playoffs again, Dallas have to be really satisfied with the way Dak Prescott has gone about his business and the Cowboys should have too much firepower in this potential shoot out.

It was Jayden Daniels who started at Quarter Back in the game between these Divisional rivals in Arlington and the Commanders were blown out on that day.

A big effort was put into the game with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but the Commanders may not be as ready as they need to be on this short week and the Dallas Cowboys can win and cover on the road.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: After coming so close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago and finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in 2024, the Detroit Lions (8-7) were expected to have another big push at trying to reach the big game for the first time. There have been positive moments, but injuries have hurt the team on both sides of the ball and the Week 16 upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers places Detroit in an unenviable position.

Time has virtually run out for the Lions to earn a spot in the post-season and they need a number of results to go their way.

Extending hopes for a few more days means needing to win on Christmas Day and then hoping the Green Bay Packers lose to the Baltimore Ravens. Even if that happens, Detroit will enter Week 18 needing to win and hoping for another Green Bay loss and so it is a long shot for the Lions to make the Playoffs to say the least.

Head Coach Dan Campbell will be trying to focus his players on the main ambition of Christmas Day and that is beating the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).

The Vikings won in Week 16 and they are still hoping to finish with a winning record, although this is another team in the NFC North that will look back at 2025 with some regret after a strong 2024 season.

JJ McCarthy at least looked to be rounding into some form and showing why the Vikings were willing to let Sam Darnold walk and give the youngster the keys to the Offensive unit, but his season is over.

A hand injury means no risk will be taken and that also means Max Brosmer is set to make his second career start for Minnesota. His first was far from memorable, although Brosmer will feel more comfortable throwing against this Lions Secondary that is banged up rather than facing the Seattle Seahawks who are in line to finish with the top Seed in the Conference.

There are skilled Receivers who can aid the Quarter Back, but the problem for Max Brosmer is the injuries in other key areas of the Offensive unit.

For starters Center Ryan Kelly is set to miss out and the Running Backs have been hit hard by injury, which means the Vikings may not be able to exploit the problems the Detroit Defensive Line have been having when trying to clamp down on the run. Putting the young Quarter Back in third and manageable would certainly make his life easier, even if the Lions Secondary is banged up, especially as the Vikings Offensive Line have also had some issues in pass protection.

This is something the Lions will look to expose and try and get the ball back to what has been a stuttering, inconsistent Offensive unit.

Last week was expected to be a game in which the Lions Offensive Line could get themselves right and pummel the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ground, but it was a struggle. With that in mind, it may be tough for Detroit to expose some of the issues that Minnesota have been having against the run and that will mean the pressure is on Quarter Back Jared Goff, who has not always handled that very well.

Sacks have to be in play here for the Vikings, while the Minnesota Secondary have played hard all season.

The problem will be if Max Brosmer is not able to move the ball with any consistency and the field position battle is lost.

Add to that the fact that Brosmer has thrown 4 Interceptions in limited playing time this season and there is a feeling that the Lions can make enough plays to eventually crack past this spread and move clear of this Divisional rival.

Detroit failed to do it last week, but they remain a very good team to back after a loss with Head Coach Dan Campbell leading the way and there may be enough Defensive plays made to help the Lions stay alive in the Playoff chase for a few more days at the very least.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Both of these AFC West teams made the post-season at the end of the 2024 campaign and so the schedule makers would have again picked this game for a big spot on Christmas Day expecting it to be one that matters.

It does for the Denver Broncos (12-3) who are still holding onto the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and who are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. They still need to win out to hold off the Los Angeles Chargers for the Divisional title, although a Broncos win and Chargers loss in Week 17 will do the job, while the loss to the Jaguars means there are a couple of threats capable of taking away the top Seed.

When the schedule was set up, the expectation was that the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) would also be contesting Playoff spots considering they have never missed out on a post-season berth with Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back. In fact they have not failed to reach the AFC Championship Game since 2017, but it has been a tough season for the Chiefs and the ACL injury picked up by Patrick Mahomes means the Quarter Back has a lot of recovery to get through before Week 1 of the 2026 season.

He has already begun his pathway towards a return to the NFL field, but the Chiefs have also been eliminated and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 suggests the team are already thinking ahead to the end of the year.

Facing a Divisional rival and being able to play spoiler is going to provide plenty of motivation, but Patrick Mahomes' backup Gardner Minshew suffered an ACL injury of his own in the defeat to the Titans.

All of that means Chris Oladokun is making his first NFL start at Quarter Back having been Drafted into the League in 2022 with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He had a handful of snaps in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Chris Oladokun had an 11/16 outing and 111 passing yards against the Tennessee Titans last week. That will offer him some confidence, but Oladokun has to be the first to know that facing the Titans Defense and the Broncos Defense are completely different challenges and especially after the latter allowed the Jaguars to put up big points against them in Week 16.

Rashee Rice is set to miss out and the Kansas City Offensive Line have not been able to win at the Line of Scrimmage and at least push the ball on the ground to make life more comfortable for the Quarter Back. While Patrick Mahomes was playing the position, you could feel confident that he would make plays down the field, but a third string Quarter Back with little to no experience is going to find it very difficult.

It really does not help that Chris Oladokun is going to be playing behind what has been a turnstile of an Offensive Line and the pressure this Denver team can get up front is going to lead to mistakes and stalled drives.

The Broncos will have to really make a mess of things to lose, but can this team cover with what has been a pretty average Offense?

Creating short fields would certainly help, while the Denver Broncos have to feel they can punish the Chiefs as effectively as the Tennessee Titans did if Kansas City are not fully invested. At the same time Sean Payton will be expecting to get the last big effort from the Chiefs as they look to dent a rival in front of the home fans, but the Broncos Offensive Line can set the table and make life easier for Bo Nix.

The Quarter Back has put up some decent numbers of late, although not necessarily getting going as early as he should, but he is well protected and the Broncos have Receivers capable of making plays for Bo Nix when he does drop back to throw.

Bo Nix had solid passing numbers when facing the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season and he should be able to get the team up to 20-24 points, which may be all they need.

Newst that Kansas City are set to leave Arrowhead may also be a factor in the game with the fans likely to voice their feelings and this just feels like a game that may get away from the Chiefs. The Coaching Staff will do all they can to help the inexperienced Quarter Back, but it is asking a lot against a top Defensive unit and one that will be angry after Week 16 events and Denver may have enough Offensive output to secure a win and cover.

There are going to more starters playing for the Chiefs than when these teams met in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Kansas City were blown out 38-0, but they may struggle for Offensive points again and that can help the road team pull clear.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 40-48, - 12.09 Units (88 Units Staked, - 13.74% Yield)

College Football Playoff Picks 2025- First Round Games (Friday 19th December-Saturday 20th December)

The First Round of the College Football Playoff will hopefully end the controversy about the selections that were made, although those in Notre Dame are unlikely to forgive or forget.

It does feel harsh on the Fighting Irish to miss out, but being an Independent comes with some danger and the head to head against the Miami Hurricanes ultimately made the difference.

Things may have been different if the Hurricanes had made the ACC Championship Game- win or lose, that would have meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish would have likely been invited into the final twelve and the Conference has made it clear that they will change their tiebreaker rules in 2026.

The ACC would have been frustrated if the Hurricanes had missed out seeing as their underdog Champion Duke Blue Devils were always going to be left out.

Instead there are two Power 5 Conference Champions playing in the First Round as big underdogs, but with nothing to lose.

Those should be dominated by two strong home favourites, but there are two very competitive looking First Round games to be played on Friday and Saturday and it should be a really good start to the College Football Playoffs.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: There has been a lot of controversy around some of the selections made for the College Football Playoff this season and the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) were one of the big names that people felt have been fortunate to reach the twelve team Playoff.

That was after the blowout loss in the SEC Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs, which meant a third defeat of the season.

Some believe Alabama should have been punished for the manner of the SEC Championship Game defeat, but those involved with the Crimson Tide have made it very clear that reaching the Conference Championship should mean being involved in a game that should not have an impact on the final standings.

No one is going to be really happy about the outcome, but Alabama have to travel to Norman in the First Round and prove they deserve to be amongst the final twelve. Win here and the Crimson Tide will take aim at the Number 1 Seed, although it has been a far from ideal build up towards the First Round after the controversy of the selection and reports linking Head Coach Kalen DeBoer with the suddenly vacant Head Coach role with the Michigan Wolverines.

Denials have been made by DeBoer and the school, but it is not ideal as the Crimson Tide travel to face the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) in a rematch of a regular season game.

A little over a month ago, Oklahoma Sooners left Tuscaloosa with a victory that virtually secured a spot in the Playoff and the opportunity to host this game. Four straight wins to conclude the regular season will have given the Sooners confidence, although the last couple of performances were far from ideal from an Offensive unit that have not impressed at all.

This is where the challenge is on Friday night to open the College Football Playoffs.

Even in the win over Alabama on the road, the Sooners struggled mightily for any kind of consistency from the Offensive unit and it was big Defensive and Special Teams plays that allowed them to escape with the upset. They were massively outgained in terms of Offensive yardage, although Oklahoma have been a little more convincing overall when playing in Norman.

Like most teams, the Sooners will not shy away from trying to run the ball, but that is going to be a huge challenge for an Offensive Line that were struggling down the stretch and now facing this Alabama Defensive Line.

All of that adds up to the pressure once again being on Quarter Back John Mateer, who did throw for over 2500 passing yards, but also had 12 Touchdown passes and 10 Interceptions.

During this four game winning run, John Mateer has been held to under 175 passing yards three times and the Crimson Tide Secondary have shown up pretty well down the stretch. Big, explosive plays have been produced by the Mateer arm and that is something the Alabama Crimson Tide will have to be aware of, but they held the Quarter Back to 138 passing yards at home and will feel they can make enough plays to give their own Offensive unit an opportunity for redemption.

Ty Simpson has not played well in the last couple of starts for Alabama as he continues to deal with an undisclosed injury, but there has been a couple of weeks of rest since the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide will be hoping that he has had enough time to at least feel better about what he can do on a football field and especially as Alabama will need the Quarter Back being able to throw the ball with confidence.

In the first game in the regular season, Alabama did have issues running the ball and even a returning Jam Miller may not make much of a difference against this strong Sooners Defensive Line.

However, it was Ty Simpson who had given the Crimson Tide a chance having thrown for over 300 passing yards, although the Interception thrown and a Fumble lost were costly parts of the reason Alabama failed to win.

As the season has wound down, there have been holes in this Oklahoma Secondary which can be exploited, although the question will be how healthy Ty Simpson feels?

We cannot really answer that, but this feels like a chance for Alabama to bounce back and earn revenge for the loss in Tuscaloosa to this Oklahoma team.

It should be another close, competitive game, especially with so much on the line.

Alabama should be very motivated to show they belong in the First Round of the Playoff after all of the controversy, although they will be well aware that all four hosts won in this Round twelve months ago.

None of those games were expected to be anything as competitive as this one looks though and the Crimson Tide are backed to find a way in Norman in a hostile environment.

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: If the inclusion of the Alabama Crimson Tide is considered controversial, having an ACC representative that did not win the Conference Championship involved has really stirred things up.

The Miami Hurricanes (10-2) were given plenty of respect by the Playoff Committee down the stretch, but they were not able to push their way into the ACC Championship Game. Ultimately that may not have been a bad thing knowing a defeat would have meant elimination, but Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans will be absolutely sickened to finally have been passed by the Hurricanes in the final Playoff Rankings.

All of the controversy means there is some pressure on Miami and they are heading out on the road for the First Round of the Playoffs against what had been one of the more impressive teams in the SEC.

The Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) will be disappointed that a single loss in the final week of the regular season saw them drop out of the top four in the Rankings, but they are hosting and will be looking to bounce back from that loss to the Longhorns. It was the Defensive unit that really let them down that day, but for the majority of the season the Aggies have played well on that side of the ball and they have had a bit of time to reassess, refocus, and make sure they are ready to compete.

Plenty of people believe these teams are well matched and will want to approach this game in similar ways, and it has also been noted that both the Hurricanes and Aggies have not really faced schedules as tough as they may have been. Both have beaten the Florida Gators in dominant fashion during the regular season, but this is another of the very close looking opening Round Playoff games and the team that plays the cleanest is likely to move on to face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the next Round.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important on both sides of the ball- credit has to be given to the Hurricanes and Aggies for knowing that they can open up the playbook by making sure they are performing from in front of the chains and both will be looking to pound the rock behind strong Offensive Lines.

However, the challenge is that they will be going up against two Defensive Lines that have found a way to clamp down on the run more often than not. Again you have to point out that these teams have not faced an opponent like the other, so there is a bigger test coming up, and that is a key part of this game.

Carson Beck and Marcel Reed have both been playing really well at Quarter Back and the passing numbers will offer them plenty of encouragement.

The Hurricanes may take further confidence from some of the issues that the Aggies have had when facing stronger Offensive units this season, while the Miami Defensive unit has kept the team in games. That may be the slight edge needed in what looks like a First Round game that will come down to the wire and the Hurricanes have every chance of finding a way of getting through as an outright winner.

Having the hook over the key number 3 would have been ideal, but backing the Hurricanes with the points looks the right play, even if this Texas A&M Aggies team have impressed against a relatively weak SEC schedule.

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Weak Conferences have allowed a couple of Champions from the Power 5 Conferences to earn spots in the College Football Playoff in 2025.

An upset in the American Conference Championship Game has earned the Tulane Green Wave (11-2) a place in the First Round, but the successes under Head Coach Jon Sumrall has gotten the attention of bigger schools. He is going to depart to take over at the Florida Gators, but Sumrall Coached the win over North Texas in the Conference Championship Game and he will get the chance to sign off with the Green Wave.

They are big underdogs going up against the Mississippi Rebels (11-1), although there has been plenty of upheaval around the team after Lane Kiffin finally decided to leave as Head Coach for a job at the LSU Tigers. It is a decision that has not gone down very well with anyone associated with the Rebels, but the players look focused after it was announced that Kiffin will not be Coaching in the post-season.

Instead Pete Golding has been promoted from within to take over as Head Coach and the hope is that there is some continuity that allows the Rebels to finish 2025 with a flourish. Some of the Coaches that will be departing for LSU along with the former Head Coach have been given a reprieve to stand on the sidelines in the Playoffs, but there is still some uncertainty about how the Rebels will perform.

They are big favourites, which is not a surprise considering the disparity in talent level between a team from the SEC and the American Conferences, while the Rebels have already blown out Tulane in this Stadium in the regular season.

You have to think the Green Wave will have been watching tape of that regular season meeting and looking to make adjustments, while avoiding turnovers is absolutely key in any upset bid.

The Green Wave struggled to run the ball efficiently in the regular season game and that could be the situation for them again, which means the pressure is on Jake Retzlaff. The Quarter Back had 56 passing yards and completed just 5/17 throws in the regular season loss and there will be some wariness about facing a Mississippi Secondary that finished the regular season making big play after big play.

At a lower level, Tulane's Defensive Line have played well and they have been able to clamp down on the run in recent victories, but it isn't too often that they will be coming up against SEC Offensive Lines. The Rebels Offensive Line have been helping establish the run all season and they managed to help the team put up 5.7 yards per carry in a 241 yard day in the win over Tulane in the regular season.

Trinidad Chambliss has been reported to be thinking about his options for next season after a strong year under Center for the Mississippi Rebels.

The Quarter Back should be able to have a comfortable day with the team expected to keep him in front of the chains and he had over 300 passing yards and 2 Touchdown passes already against this Tulane Secondary.

Unsurprisingly the spread is bigger for this First Round Playoff game than it was in the regular season with the line now crossing another key number 17.

However, the Mississippi Rebels do look considerably stronger than the American Champions and that should show up- the players are likely going to be pretty focused to remind people of their quality and move past the Lane Kiffin era and it may be tough for the Green Wave to keep up, much like it was when the teams met back in September.

James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks Pick: There is no reason to be angry with James Madison Dukes (12-1) for making it through to the College Football Playoff at the expense of surprising ACC Champions Duke Blue Devils. Are the Dukes one of the best twelve teams in College Football? No, but they are a Conference Champion and the current selection policy means they have every right to be involved in the First Round.

Of course they have been set as the biggest underdog of the Round as they prepare to travel to face the Oregon Ducks (11-1) who are one of three Big Ten teams that are playing in the Playoffs.

They are the only one involved in the First Round, but the Oregon Ducks may feel that gives them a chance to play themselves into positive form having been given a Bye into the Quarter Final last year, but losing the opening game.

The Bracket also presents an opportunity with the winner of this game facing the Texas Tech Red Raiders- there is no doubting how good the Big 12 Champions are, but it feels eminently more winnable than facing the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes or Georgia Bulldogs and that is something the Oregon Ducks will consider.

Oregon are hosting and they have won six in a row, while covering in three straight, which suggests they finished the season in confident form.

The Ducks are very balanced on the Offensive side of the ball and that is going to make it very difficult for James Madison Dukes, especially as they will not have faced teams with the talent and speed of Oregon very often. The sole defeat this season was a 14 point loss at the Louisville Cardinals, but James Madison upset North Carolina Tar Heels last season and will feel they have 'nothing to lose'.

Stopping this Oregon team will be extremely challenging, but the Dukes will have to see if they can put up enough Offensive output of their own to keep this competitive.

Everything will depend on the Line of Scrimmage when the Dukes have the ball- James Madison's Offensive Line have been very good at the Sun Belt Conference level and controlling the clock and the tempo has to be the plan for the big underdog.

However, they are facing an Oregon Defensive Line which has been very strong all season and while playing a higher class of opponent.

Alonza Barnett III has played well at Quarter Back to back up the strong running game, but it is a very different challenge if he is playing from behind the chains and against a top Big Ten opponent on the road.

It is simply not being used to facing competition of this level that is one challenge and this Oregon Secondary are giving nothing away.

Trying to find an upset on the road just feels too tall a task and the Oregon Ducks should have enough to pull clear and cover as the big home favourite.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 15: 2-2, - 0.29 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)

Week 14: 5-2-1, + 2.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 30.50% Yield)

Week 13: 3-3, - 0.35 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield

Week 12: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)

Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)

Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2025 (Thursday 18th December-Monday 22nd December)

Three regular season weeks of the 2025 year remain for NFL teams and that means the margin for error has all but disappeared.

Last week we saw the Kansas City Chiefs eliminated from the post-season for the first time since Patrick Mahomes took over as starting Quarter Back, although the bigger concern for the team is the ACL injury picked up by the star player. All season he has battled through adversity and pain to make sure he can lead the Chiefs, but the late injury suffered in Week 15 of the 2025 season could potentially impact how the Kansas City Chiefs approach the off-season and perhaps even the entire 2026 year.

Patrick Mahomes was not the only big name player suffering an injury in Week 15 after Micah Parsons went down for the Green Bay Packers and he is another likely to miss the remainder of the season.

It has been one of those seasons- so many important names have been sidelined for huge lengths of time and the top of the NFL has been impacted by that.

Some teams have played up to the level of expectation- the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams looked to be the top teams in the NFC and both are expected to be playing beyond Week 18.

The Buffalo Bills earned a big win last week and may feel this is the most open route into the Super Bowl than thye have encountered in the Josh Allen era- big threats like the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals are out, while the Bills look built to compete in January as long as they can find a way to just get the Defensive unit up another level or two.

You have to expect the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and perhaps the Baltimore Ravens will have something to say about that, but this really does feel like a season in which you can take a handful of teams and still fail to identify the Super Bowl Winner.

Uncertainty on the field has also seeped into the NFL Picks and it is going to take some effort to turn this season around and end another year with a positive return.

Week 15 produced a small victory, but much more is needed with the selections beginning on Thursday Night Football again.

Further Picks will be added to this thread in the days ahead.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC West looks very likely to send three teams into the Playoffs, but the Division is still up for grabs and the top three will all still believe they can finish as Champions. The likelihood is that the NFC West winner will also finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, meaning the run towards the Super Bowl will have to go through them, and this Thursday Night Football game is a very important one.

The Los Angeles Rams (11-3) are leading the NFC West having already earned one win over the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) and having a 3-1 Divisional record compared with a 2-2 mark for the Seahawks.

It makes this an important game for both teams, who are a game ahead of the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers, and the winner of this game in Week 16 will have the momentum to take home the Divisional crown.

Both teams were victorious in Week 15, although the Seattle Seahawks made much tougher work of the Indianapolis Colts than most would have expected.

Some of that could have been down to this upcoming game and not taking the Colts as seriously as they might, but Seattle did win and that makes it four victories in a row.

They will need to make sure they are putting together a more consistent Offensive plan if they are going to win this game, but Seattle should be confident that they can do that. Of course that will only work if they can avoid the turnovers that cost them the game when they visited Los Angeles last month.

Sam Darnold had four Interceptions in that game and the Quarter Back still has plenty to prove when it comes to showing up when the pressure is at its most intense. He has experience, which will help, and Sam Darnold is playing in front of a very loud home crowd and there are holes in this Los Angeles Secondary that can be exploited.

Running the ball is going to be difficult against this Rams Defensive Line, but Seattle will feel they can execute better than they did in the road loss in Los Angeles. As long as they remain balanced, Seattle should have success moving the chains and making sure they give the Defensive unit the best chance to win the battle of the field position.

It is going to be the battle at the Line of Scrimmage on the other side of the ball that really could determine the outcome of this game.

In recent games, the Los Angeles Rams have been very good at establishing the run with the tandem at Running Back operating behind this strong Offensive Line. However, the Seattle Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and they will want to make sure they are stronger than the first meeting when the Seahawks did allow Los Angeles to pound out some big gains on the ground.

Matthew Stafford has been well protected and he has been playing as well as any Quarter Back in the NFL and through a much longer period- his numbers continue to impress, but Davante Adams may be missing and this Seattle Secondary have impressed.

When the teams met earlier this season, the Rams saw Matthew Stafford throw two Touchdown passes, but he was restricted to 130 passing yards and it is going to be a test for the Seahawks to match that kind of output again.

Even in recent weeks, the Seahawks have continued to play the pass really well and this is where they may be able to turn the tables on the Los Angeles Rams and level up the season series.

Los Angeles have won four of the last five Divisional games between these NFC West rivals, but the Seahawks played well enough to beat the Rams last month and they may just do enough to edge this important game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Last year these two NFC East teams ended up meeting in the Conference Championship game, but things have not gone to plan in 2025, at least as far as the Washington Commanders (4-10) are concerned.

Injuries have been a big issue for the Commanders all season and they have struggled to find any momentum.

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) went on and won the Super Bowl after crushing the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, but they have not been as good as they looked last season. This has not prevented them from dominating the NFC East and the Eagles are one win away from becoming the first repeat Champion of the Division in twenty years.

Injuries on the Offensive Line have been a problem for the Eagles and this is a team that have not always been on the same page on this side of the ball. They did at least snap a three game losing run last week and Philadelphia will be hoping that they can round out the regular season with the kind of form and momentum that can carry them through January and February.

Encouragement for this game can be taken from the fact that the Commanders are plenty banged up and the Eagles Offensive Line have been able to help establish the run pretty effectively in recent games. That should bode well for Philadelphia, who know the importance for the whole team to have the Offensive unit playing in front of the chains, and they should be able to pound the rock against this Washington Defensive Line.

This should mean things are opened up for Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back who still has some big time Receivers to target down the field- playing in third and manageable means Hurts remains dangerous with his legs and he can use play-action to expose the holes in the Washington Secondary by getting the ball down the field.

There would be more concerns that they may need to be involved in a shoot out if Jayden Daniels was playing at Quarter Back for Washington, but the young player is not going to be risked the rest of the way so he can fully recover from the injuries he has played through this season.

Instead it will be Marcus Mariota back behind Center and he can at least hand the ball to the Running Backs in this one against an Eagles Defensive Line that is missing Jalen Carter. In recent games, Philadelphia have struggled to stop the run with any consistency and so this is an area that Washington can target, although Marcus Mariota will have to remind the Eagles of his threat with his arm.

We have not seen too much of that of late and this Philadelphia Secondary has really been operating at a high level and look to be the key in any prolonged Playoff run.

It could allow Philadelphia to play closer to the Line of Scrimmage and dare Mariota to beat them with his arm, which is something he has struggled to do with any consistency since coming in for Jayden Daniels. Throwing against this Secondary is dangerous for a player struggling with turnovers and this looks a good chance for the Philadelphia Eagles to come through with a road win.

Almost exactly twelve months ago, Washington did beat Philadelphia at home, but the injury hit Commanders have to face this team twice in the next three games and they look unlikely to be competitive all the way through.

Taking some of the juice away and backing the Eagles to cover a number just below a converted Touchdown mark looks the way to go as they clinch a Playoff spot and remain interested in finished as high as the Number 2 Seed in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The NFC North looks like a Division that will be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs, but it is still uncertain as to which two teams that will be.

With that in mind, a second meeting between the Chicago Bears (10-4) and Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) in three weeks looks vitally important.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears at home in Week 14 when Caleb Williams was Intercepted in the End Zone as he looked to put the Bears in a position to tie the game. Both teams have picked up some serious injuries in the time since, which changes the mood around the game, but it is the case of 'next man up' with the Playoffs fast approaching and both teams targeting a spot in the final Bracket.

Micah Parsons is the big name that suffered a serious injury for the Green Bay Packers, but Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson are banged up on the other side of the ball. The latter two look like they will suit up, which is big news for the Packers as they look to retake the Divisional lead, but the injury to Parsons adds up to others on the Defensive side of the ball and that has to give the Chicago Bears huge encouragement.

In recent games, the Bears have been running the ball really well behind a strong looking Offensive Line and they will feel they did run well enough in the road loss at the Packers. Now they are facing a Green Bay team that have lost key personnel up front and that could see the Bears have perhaps a bit more success compared with the first meeting, which was still amongst the better performances against the Packers Defensive Line.

Putting Caleb Williams in third and manageable spots is very important considering the Bears are without a couple of key Receivers this week.

This will allow the Quarter Back to make moves with his legs when the pocket does break down, while DJ Moore and Colston Loveland can still find spaces to exploit down the field.

As injuries have cleared up on the Defensive side of the ball, the Chicago Bears have shown improvement here and that will be something that they will be looking to show in this rematch. If Josh Jacobs was going to miss out, the Bears might have felt more comfortable, especially as they allowed the Running Back to almost reach 100 yards on the ground in the game two weeks ago.

This is still an area that the Green Bay Packers will be looking to exploit considering the Bears Defensive Line have continued to show some weakness to the run.

Making life comfortable for Jordan Love could give the Quarter Back the opportunities that the Bears feel they can offer Caleb Williams, and Christian Watson being available would certainly help. Key players have returned to the Chicago Secondary, which will make the passing game that much tougher to execute, but Jordan Love had over 200 yards through the air in the first game between these NFC North rivals and that meant the Packers were extremely balanced in the Offensive output.

Interceptions could be a key part of the game as it was in the first meeting.

This Bears Secondary have been very dangerous and they did pick off Jordan Love in the first game, while the Week 15 win over the Cleveland Browns underlined the ability of this Chicago team to win the turnover battle.

Losing two key Receivers hurts though and that is where the Green Bay Packers have to feel they still have enough Offensive firepower to come through.

It will be wise to keep an eye on the injury report with both Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson needed and pushing to be included, even if the Coaching staff are less sure.

Conditions will not be easy at Soldier Field in a night kick off in December, but the Green Bay Packers may just have enough to maintain the mental edge in this rivalry by earning a narrow road victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The top of the NFC South will be decided in the last three weeks of the regular season as the two leaders meet twice in the remaining schedule.

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) and Carolina Panthers (7-7) have been struggling for consistency, while both are 2-2 in the Division- make no mistake, the team that wins both of the regular season games between these teams is going to be making it through to the post-season, although the pressure on the losing team will be having to win next week to make sure the winner has not been able to pull clear ahead of the Week 18 rematch.

Neither will be thinking ahead though and this Week 16 game is hugely important.

The Buccaneers lost on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 on a late Field Goal, but Mike Evans was back in action and the mini-Bye has to do the team the world of good. Key players have either missed significant time or they have been playing through the pain and that has hindered the long-time dominant NFC South team.

Carolina were not able to take advantage of the Buccaneers slip after losing to the New Orleans Saints for a second time, but they have been much better in 2025 compared with 2024 and there is still so much for them to play for.

They may be without an important Offensive Lineman for this game, but the Panthers have to feel they can still establish the run against what has been a surprisingly vulnerable Tampa Bay Defensive Line. That is an area where big players have been playing through injury and that has meant the Buccaneers have struggled to stop the run with any consistency, which is an area Carolina have to exploit.

It is important just to take the pressure from Quarter Back Bryce Young, who has continued to be a little up and down.

Bryce Young will be facing a Tampa Bay Secondary that has been struggling to stop plays, but he is hoping that Tetaiora McMillan is able to suit up to give him more options.

Running the ball should be something the Buccaneers are able to do in this game too and they have Bucky Irving back in the lineup, which is a boost. They will be looking to keep the pressure away from Baker Mayfield, who is clearly playing despite not being at 100% healthy, although the return of Mike Evans is a massive boost for the veteran under Center.

He has been faced with some pressure as the Offensive Line have struggled to offer time, but Baker Mayfield can step back and target Evans in any jump ball situation knowing his Wide Receiver will likely win.

That should help and the experience of the Buccaneers should mean they have not panicked too much about some tight losses.

Having a bit of extra time to prepare for this game should also be an important factor in favour of the road team, while Tampa Bay will not have forgotten the dominance they have had over this Divisional rival in recent years. This could all be at play with the Buccaneers capable of finding enough big plays, and perhaps a turnover or two, to turn this game in their own favour.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The defeat on Monday Night Football might have spelled the end of the Tua Tagovailoa era as Quarter Back of the Miami Dolphins (6-8). The underwhelming 2025 season has officially ended with elimination with the defeat at the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Tagovailoa's performance was heavily criticised and he has been replaced at Quarter Back by rookie Quinn Ewers.

The Dolphins are hosting a Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) team who have had another really poor season where Quarter Back Joe Burrow has missed a number of games again.

Joe Burrow has even hinted at the potential of leaving the Bengals, although that looks unlikely in the very near future- the focus instead is to bounce back from a miserable day in the office for the Bengals when blown out by the Baltimore Ravens and failing to score a point.

There is expected to be a reaction to that, even if Joe Burrow's comments have raised plenty of eyebrows this past week.

He is fortunate to be going up against a Miami Defensive unit that may struggle to pick up the intensity after elimination was confirmed and with a rookie Quarter Back coming into the lineup on the other side of the ball. It may feel Miami are already thinking ahead to next season, which could cloud the thinking of those on the field, and this Dolphins Defensive unit have been inconsistent all season anyway.

To give them some credit, Miami have played pretty well on this side of the ball in recent games, but could not do much to slow the Pittsburgh Steelers and are now playing on a short week.

The Bengals may be without Tee Higgins, but Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow can make connections to keep the ball moving and Chase Brown has been running the ball with real competitive spirit. He has also proven to be capable of catching the ball when leaking out of the backfield and Cincinnati have to feel they can move the chains.

It is easy to say the same for the Miami Dolphins as they look to lean on De'Von Achane, who had a tough night in Pittsburgh, but who has been a huge figure in the Offense with the way he has been running the ball behind this Miami Offensive Line.

Coming up against the struggling Bengals Defensive Line should be a huge advantage, but it may depend on how much respect there is for a rookie Quarter Back- there is every reason to believe the Bengals play closer to the Line of Scrimmage and dare Quinn Ewers to beat them with his arm, rather than allow Achane to run all over them.

Things will feel a lot different if Quinn Ewers is able to make some plays with his arm, although it should be noted that the Miami Offensive Line have been struggling with their pass protection. Instead the focus may be to get Ewers going with quick passes closer to the Line of Scrimmage, and that may just benefit Cincinnati to come up and make sure they are keeping the Miami Offensive unit in third and long spots where they can.

Being at home has to give Miami motivation, even on a short week, and Head Coach Mike McDaniel is convinced Quinn Ewers gives his team a shot in the arm from the Quarter Back position.

As long as he can make some throws to give the Bengals something to think about, it should keep things clear up front for De'Von Achane to have a bounce back game and having more than a Field Goal worth of points with the home team looks too good to pass up here.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: Both of these teams may be eliminated, but the end of the regular season is an opportunity to assess how they can turn things around in 2026. Both have young, inexperienced Quarter Backs starting in this game, and those players need to impress upper management ahead of the Draft where both teams will potentially have high Picks.

The New York Giants (2-12) are one of three teams with just two wins secured this season and there will be some in the fanbase hoping they lose out.

They have a tough test this week against an improving Minnesota Vikings (6-8), although that improvement has come too late. In Week 15 they effectively ended the Dallas Cowboys season with a win on Sunday Night Football and it is going to be a test for the Vikings to back that up after winning in front of a national audience.

JJ McCarthy has not been quite as good as hoped, but he had a big game against the Cowboys and has some big Receivers who can help him continue that trend. It certainly helps that he is throwing against a New York Secondary that has been struggling in recent games and the young Quarter Back can have another solid performance.

He is throwing outdoors this time, which is going to bring its own challenges, but it will help that McCarthy should be well backed by the running game and that should keep him in third and manageable spots around the field.

This should give the Vikings every chance of keeping the chains moving, while the Brian Flores led Defensive unit have to be confident of giving Minnesota a chance to pull clear for a road win.

Jaxson Dart had given the Giants a boost when being brought in as the starting Quarter Back, but he has not looked fully healthy and it really does not help that key Offensive skill players have gone down with injury around him. With a potential high Draft Pick coming up, the Quarter Back will be looking to show the management what he can bring to the field, although a new Head Coach is going to arrive and that may spell Dart being pushed backwards in any pecking order.

He will need the Giants Offensive Line to help establish the run, although Jaxson Dart has not looked as comfortable running the ball himself to steer clear of pressure.

The Vikings Defensive Line may be extra ready to stop the run in order to bamboozle Jaxson Dart by asking him to make plays from third and long spots on the field. That would be the plan so they can perhaps create some turnovers, while the Minnesota Secondary have been playing well and will believe they have the talent needed to shut down this Giants passing attack.

It is a tough spot for the Vikings with this game being after a big win on national television and moving from indoors to outdoors.

However, they look stronger than a Giants team that have to be counting down the days until the end of the regular season and Minnesota can do enough to win and cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The top of the NFC South and NFC West are being fought out pretty hard as we close on the end of the regular season, but both of these teams are not involved. There will be real disappointment around the Atlanta Falcons (5-9) and Arizona Cardinals (3-11) for the seasons that have been put together and that does make it hard to know what kind of motivation that both will be playing with.

At least the Falcons can point to a couple of wins in the last four games played, but the Arizona Cardinals have lost six in a row and look like they really have lost their way.

Jacoby Brissett has not been to blame for the poor season put together by the Cardinals and he has shown enough to have the team thinking they need to move on from Kyler Murray. That means the veteran will conclude the season at Quarter Back for the Cardinals and he could have a strong outing in this game against a vulnerable Atlanta Defensive unit.

Injuries have not helped the Cardinals, but there have been players willing to step up and make big plays for the team and they will feel there are opportunities against the Falcons.

Just being able to run the ball well enough to put Jacoby Brissett and third and manageable spots is the key and it should allow the veteran to make some plays into this Secondary. Marvin Harrison Jr looks set to miss out again, but Michael Wilson has shown his qualities while Harrison Jr has been on the sidelines and Arizona should have successes.

However, you can say the same for the Atlanta Falcons, even if Kirk Cousins continues to guide the team instead of Michael Penix Jr- the veteran was an important figure in the Falcons Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is talent on this side of the ball.

Bijan Robinson was not the star of the show, but he had another big outing in the win over the Buccaneers and there is every chance he picks up from where he left off against this banged up and vulnerable Arizona Defensive Line. Having Robinson rip off some big gains on the ground would be a huge edge for the entire Offensive unit and it should mean Kirk Cousins and the passing game can take advantage by finding plenty of balance on this side of the ball.

There is a hope that Drake London could be ready to suit up, while Kyle Pitts Sr had a dominant game at Tight End- this should make Kirk Cousins' life very easy and the Atlanta Falcons should be comfortable playing indoors in this one.

Time should be given to Kirk Cousins by the Offensive Line and the road team may have a bit too much firepower for the home team.

Both teams should score plenty of points, but the Falcons may find a bit more Offensive balance and that can be key to a road win.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions Pick: Both of these teams are in a position to push their way into the Playoffs, although there is a feeling that the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) pathway is much clearer than the one faced by the Detroit Lions (8-6), despite both holding the same record in different Conferences.

The record has proven to be good enough for the Steelers to lead the AFC North and they remain a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, while Pittsburgh would also be in touch with those teams chasing Wild Card spots. Winning out is important for Aaron Rodgers, who is incredibly familiar with the Lions from his time with the Green Bay Packers, and the Steelers in their bid to return to the Playoff.

For the Detroit Lions, 8-6 means being third in the tough NFC North and the team are needing to win out and hope for results to land their way in order to finish in a Wild Card spot. The likelihood of winning the Division again look very, very slim after the latest loss and Head Coach Dan Campbell will be disappointed by some recent inconsistency as injuries continue to take a toll on the team.

One important factor to note is that the Lions have bounced back from losses and they are looking to do that again this weekend. Under Dan Campbell, not only do the Detroit Lions regularly avoid back to back losses, but they tend to come out with something to prove and that will be the case in this Week 16 game.

There has to be some real excitement amongst the group after seeing the way the Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled to stop the run in recent weeks and they are going to have to deal with 'Sonic and Knuckles' this time.

Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should get back on track in this one, especially with the Steelers set to be without TJ Watt again, and the Detroit Lions should keep Jared Goff in third and manageable spots throughout the game.

Jared Goff should have a touch more time in the pocket with Watt out of the game, but he also should not have to hold onto the ball for too long as he looks to attack this Pittsburgh Secondary. Credit has to be given to the Steelers for the performance in the win over the Miami Dolphins, but playing in Detroit against this Lions Offensive unit is a different challenge and the pressure will be on Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers to keep up on the scoreboard.

The injuries have piled up on the Defensive side of the ball as far as Detroit are concerned and that should offer Pittsburgh real encouragement.

However, the Steelers have not always been the most consistent Offensive team, although Aaron Rodgers has led his team to consecutive wins to hold onto the Divisional lead.

Aaron Rodgers has found some chemistry with his Receivers and Kenneth Gainwell has given the team a real spark running the ball and so you do have to expect the Steelers to at least move the chains and have some Offensive successes. They should find some balance, but the Steelers Offensive Line can be a little hit or miss and this Detroit Lions team may have the anger and motivation to wear down a team playing on a short week.

As mentioned before, Detroit have bounced back from straight up losses very well under Head Coach Dan Campbell and this game feels more important to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It means plenty to the Steelers, but the Lions would be on the brink of elimination with a defeat and that motivation is going to keep them focused and ready to grind down this opponent at home.

Covering will not be easy, but find any layer that takes the juice out of the price by dropping the line below a key number 7.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The collapse in the Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills have raised the volume of the doubters around the New England Patriots (11-3), but this is a team that remains in charge of the AFC East. Bouncing back with a victory will be a tough test for the Patriots who will be travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) who host this Sunday Night Football game knowing they have very little margin for error in their bid to return to the post-season.

Not many teams in the AFC would like to see the Ravens in January, but Baltimore have had to battle through adversity this season.

In Week 15 they secured an important win over the Cincinnati Bengals to snap a two game losing run and the Ravens can still win the AFC North by making sure they sweep the remainder of the regular season scheduled and hope the Pittsburgh Steelers lose twice.

Focus has to be on winning this game and the Baltimore Ravens are going to be really confident that they can establish the run against this Patriots Defensive Line. Lamar Jackson will have to make sure he is using his legs when the pocket breaks down, but the Ravens being in third and manageable spots will give them every chance of making sure they are keeping the chains moving.

Lamar Jackson will know that his Offensive Line has had some issues in pass protection, but the team being in third and manageable should mean the Quarter Back does not need a lot of time. There are Ravens Receivers who can make some big plays, although Jackson will respect this Patriot Secondary and the performances produced this season.

New England are going to try to bounce back from the home loss to the Buffalo Bills, but they are up against an improving Baltimore Defensive unit.

In particular, the Baltimore Defensive Line have really been clamping down on the run in recent games and they will be very keen to make sure they put Drake Maye in a position to beat them where he needs to hold onto the ball a little longer than usual. The Patriots are a strong Offensive Line and TreVeyon Henderson has been in fine form, but they struggled to maintain the run in the loss to the Buffalo Bills and that did ultimately cost them the chance of closing out the win.

Drake Maye does have some solid Receivers around him, much like Lamar Jackson, but it is always going to be more challenging if asked to make plays from third and long spots.

The Quarter Back will know that there are some holes in this Baltimore Secondary that can be exploited, but a desperate Ravens team may still have the edge in this big prime time game.

There have been some doubts about this New England team seeing as they have yet to beat anyone of note outside of Buffalo in the first game, but the Bills earned revenge in Week 15 and the Ravens will feel they are still a genuine Super Bowl contender.

It is a game that matters more to the home team and Lamar Jackson can play well enough to help build on the big win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Patriots are unlikely to roll over under Head Coach Mike Vrabel, but they have a tough task to bounce back from a really disappointing defeat. It also helps that the Patriots can still win the Division even if they lose this game and they will maintain control of their own destiny and the Baltimore Ravens have the clarity to secure an important win and they can cover too.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 37-43, - 9.81 Units (80 Units Staked, - 12.26% Yield)

NFL Week 15 Picks 2025 (Thursday 11th December-Monday 15th December)

This is a thread that will be a little longer by the time the Sunday games come around- I will have a few thoughts about how the Playoff Picture looks, but Thursday Night Football has come around quickly this week and there is a selection from that game, which can be read below.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Once again, the NFC South looks like it will only be sending one team into the post-season and in recent times the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) have found a way to win the Division. However, a poor defeat in Week 14 has just opened the door for the Carolina Panthers who have the same record as the Buccaneers and those two teams are facing one another twice in the final three weeks of the season.

Those games are likely going to decide the fate of the Division, but the Buccaneers will be keen to find some momentum after recent setbacks. The loss to the New Orleans Saints means the Buccaneers have dropped five of the last seven games and injuries are just taking a toll on the team ahead of this Thursday Night Football game.

Divisional games against the Panthers will be key to the outcome of the NFC South, but that does not mean Tampa Bay can overlook the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) who have confirmed to be having another losing season.

Head Coach Raheem Morris may struggle to hold onto his role at the end of the season, but the Falcons will be keen to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills, the Atlanta Falcons have lost seven of eight games played, but they have to be motivated by trying to play spoiler for a long-time dominant Divisional rival.

The game in Week 14 was tied at 6-6 at half time, but the Falcons allowed a Kick Return for a Touchdown and then imploded with turnovers to allow the Seahawks to pull clear.

Veteran Quarter Back Kirk Cousins has struggled since coming in to replace an injured Michael Penix Jr, but he may benefit from handing the ball to Bijan Robinson to try and keep the Offensive unit in a stronger position. The Running Back may have had issues running against the Buccaneers Defensive Line in the past, but over the last few games there have been clear signs that the Tampa Bay front has worn down and that should be a positive for the Falcons.

Of course Kirk Cousins has to prove he can still make the throws needed to keep the chains moving and he is trying to do that without Drake London, who is set to miss out again.

There have been a couple of holes that have opened up in the Buccaneers Secondary as they have struggle to stop the run and this should give Atlanta a chance to at least move the chains with some consistency.

The question in this short week is whether Tampa Bay can at least produce a bit more out of their own Offensive unit, which has let them down a little during this poor run. Baker Mayfield has been playing through an injury, as have the Offensive Line, and the Buccaneers have just found it tough to keep the ball moving as they were perhaps doing earlier this season.

A part of the problem has been the injuries that have piled up around the Quarter Back and the Offensive Line, although the return of Bucky Irving has given the running game a boost.

Tampa Bay could have the likes of Mike Evans back in Week 15 too, which would be a monster addition to the passing game and give Mayfield a target who can make the big catches for him. You cannot be sure that Evans is completely ready and instead his big impact could come in the final three weeks of the regular season, although just having his presence could at least open some spaces for Baker Mayfield's other Receivers.

In recent games the Falcons have at least played the run a little better and that could be key in forcing Baker Mayfield to show his shoulder is not giving him issues after back to back poor passing games. The Falcons Secondary could still make a few stops if the team continue to build the pressure up front if, or when, the Buccaneers are in obvious passing situations and the road team can take advantage of having more than a Field Goal worth of points in this one.

The Buccaneers are 0-7 against the spread when playing at home on Thursday Night Football, while they have already beaten the Falcons this season and that could see the home team suffer a bit of complacency.

Atlanta have won on their last two visits to Tampa Bay- as long as they can avoid making the mistakes that saw the Week 14 game get away from them, the Falcons can keep this close enough on the scoreboard to make the points being given to them earn the cover.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: A few weeks ago it looked like the AFC South was going to be sending the Divisional Winner into the post-season as perhaps the Number 1 Seed. Injuries have curtailed the Indianapolis Colts and the defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) in Week 14 has allowed the latter to take control of the Division instead.

Four wins in a row have been put together by the Jaguars since the defeat to the Houston Texans and that gives them a game lead over both Houston and Indianapolis in the standings.

There are still four weeks of the regular season to negotiate and the Jaguars have two Divisional games as well as a tough looking road game at the Denver Broncos to come, which makes this game in Week 15 important. With such a narrow lead in the standings, the Jacksonville Jaguars cannot afford to lose focus against the struggling New York Jets (3-10) who will be down to a third string Quarter Back.

New York have lost three of the last four games, including a blowout home defeat to the Miami Dolphins in Week 14, while Tyrod Taylor joins Justin Fields on the sidelines.

It means Brady Cook is set to make the start and it is a big test for an Undrafted Free Agent rookie- he came into the game against the Miami Dolphins last week, but threw two Interceptions and now faces a Jaguars Defensive unit that have been looking stronger and stronger down the stretch.

Brady Cook had a decent enough career with the Missouri Tigers, but the step up to the NFL level is huge and the New York Jets do not have a lot of experience around him. With the rookie in at Quarter Back, it is going to be even tougher to run the ball against the Jaguars Defensive Line which has been playing at a high level during this winning run and keeping Cook in third and long spots is an obvious win for the home team.

An Offensive Line that has been struggling to protect whoever has been behind Center is going to be challenged by the Jacksonville pass rush and the Jets are going to be even more reliant on their Special Teams to keep them in this game.

Credit has to be given to the Jets for continuing to play hard on the Defensive side of the ball, despite trading away a couple of key pieces several weeks ago.

They are a bit easier to run the ball against and so Travis Etienne Jr may have a bigger impact than he has been able to produce consistently in recent weeks. Trevor Lawrence has also been keen to use his legs when the pocket has collapsed and you should expect to see the Jaguars moving the ball into third and manageable spots.

Jakobi Meyers has arrived to give the Jaguars legitimate threats in the passing game and Trevor Lawrence has made full use of that and getting up to 24 points may be enough to cover if Brady Cook struggles on the other side of the ball as much as is expected.

The spread is a concern with Jacksonville simply not used to being asked to lay double digits as a favourite- it has happened once since 2018 and the Jaguars were beaten outright on that occasion.

However, this is a Jaguars team with more momentum than most in recent times and it really is a selection opposing the Jets as much as backing Jacksonville.

New York have found Special Teams plays that have kept them more competitive than they have deserved to be in games this season, but Jacksonville's Defensive unit may create a couple of turnovers to really swing this game in their favour.

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears Pick: The late Interception as the Chicago Bears (9-4) were driving for a tying-Touchdown has meant losing the lead of the NFC North, but the players are simply focusing on bouncing back. They are back at home in frigid conditions in Week 15, and it is important for the Bears to not think ahead to earning revenge against the Green Bay Packers when the Divisional rivals meet for a second time in three weeks in Week 16.

The Bears have been set as the favourites against the Cleveland Browns (3-10) who have officially been eliminated from the post-season having been beaten for the fifth time in six games.

Shedeur Sanders has come in to give the Browns a boost at Quarter Back, although there are still big questions about whether he is someone that Cleveland will look to get behind next season. The last four games will continue to be a learning experience for both Quarter Back and team, although there is no doubting that Sanders has offered a spark.

He will be looking to lean on the running game against a Bears Defensive Line that have had issues in stopping the ground attack- however, the Cleveland Offensive Line has been battered by injury and they have not been able to exert real control up front, which has put the pressure on the Quarter Back to make plays with his arm.

To give him his credit, Shedeur Sanders has been able to do that and even this improving Chicago Secondary could allow Cleveland to make a few plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving.

Scoring points as they have against Las Vegas and Tennessee will give the Browns Defensive unit a huge boost and that will allow them to pick up their intensity to try and help earn the upset.

You have to like what has been produced by Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears when they have the ball in their own hands, but there is no doubt that they are facing one of the stronger Defensive units in the NFL. The key is the Line of Scrimmage where Chicago have been doing well to establish the run, but who are now facing a Browns team that have prided themselves on making it very difficult to push the ball against them on the ground.

If the Cleveland Defensive Line can stand up, they have the personnel who can rush Caleb Williams and a Secondary that is capable of making big plays. This could be all important in the expected conditions and there is every reason to believe the Browns can at least keep this competitive.

Most will still need convincing about Shedeur Sanders, which is the same for me personally, but he can use the Cleveland strengths at the Line of Scrimmage to be placed in a position for success.

Avoiding turnovers will be key in what are going to be tough conditions, especially if holding onto the ball too long.

As long as Shedeur Sanders can avoid those, he should be capable of helping the Cleveland Browns stay within this spread set.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC East is still up for grabs, but it is the New England Patriots (11-2) who have stolen the march on the Buffalo Bills (9-4).

They have already beaten the Bills on the road, which means another win on Sunday will earn the New England Patriots the Divisional crown, although everyone associated with the road team are going to be expecting a big test from the long-time AFC East dominant team.

Ten straight wins have taken the Patriots to the top of the Division, although the win over the Bills is the standout victory in that run. That victory was all the way back in early October and New England have beaten those teams they would have expected to beat, which is still going to give them a lot of confidence as they edge closer to a return to the Playoff.

It should mean New England play with plenty of motivation to prove themselves by sweeping an opponent that will be thinking Super Bowl or bust.

We will learn plenty about the Bills this week too- over the course of the season the team have had issues on the Defensive side of the ball, but they look to be rounding into Playoff form at just the right time, although that is going to be tested by the Patriots.

A positive for the Bills Defensive Line is that they should be able to maintain recent standards when it comes to playing the run- they have held recent opponents to way below the season average and Buffalo will be facing a New England team that will look to pound the rock, but who have been struggling to rip off big gains.

Drake Maye will not be intimidated by the challenge he could be facing at Quarter Back and the numbers have remained very strong.

However, he is also going to be tested by an improving Buffalo Secondary as injuries have begun to clear up and this is a real opportunity for the Bills to close the gap at the top of the Division if they can maintain recent levels.

Josh Allen and company will feel the Buffalo Offensive Line can be the dominant unit on the Line of Scrimmage on either side of the ball and the Quarter Back can use his own legs and James Cook's in a bid to put his team in third and manageable spots. The Bills will be firm in that belief and will continue to pound the rock against this New England Defensive Line, which has struggled to clamp down up front, and that could be the edge needed in this big AFC East game.

This will also be key in giving Josh Allen time when he does step back to throw the ball down the field, although he will be aware that this New England Secondary are the strength of the team.

New England won a tight game on the road at Buffalo and there is every reason to believe this one will be competitive throughout too.

However, it is that Buffalo Offensive Line versus New England's Defensive Line edge that has to be given to the road team and it may be the factor that makes all of the difference in the final outcome.

The Bills have been solid road favourites when they have had Josh Allen under Center, while the Quarter Back has a very strong winning record against the spread when operating with revenge. After losing to the Jets and Patriots in Divisional games in 2023, Buffalo were able to win the second time around and it feels like an experienced team can do that in Foxboro in Week 15.

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three straight losses and four defeats in the last five have pulled the Indianapolis Colts (8-5) backwards at a time when injuries have decimated them in key positions.

Losing Daniel Jones to injury has really hurt a team that is going to be down to a third string Quarter Back with Riley Leonard looking likely to earn the call on Sunday.

Things have become so desperate that grandfather Philip Rivers has been signed up to the practice squad for the Colts- he has previously played here back in 2020 and Rivers feels he can make a big impact for the team, although he might only be seen as someone who can potentially come into the game if things do not go right for the starter, at least this week.

No matter the experience, or inexperience, at Quarter Back, this is going to be a huge test for the Indianapolis Colts.

Three wins in a row have taken the Seattle Seahawks (10-3) to the same record as NFC West leaders Los Angeles Rams and the teams are meeting in a big game on Thursday Night Football. The Colts have to hope that serves as a distraction, but it is the Seahawks Defensive unit that has really impressed and so it could be a very difficult day for Riley Leonard or whoever lines up under Center.

Indianapolis do have Jonathan Taylor, but the Offensive Line have been struggling to open up holes for the Running Back and there are not going to be a lot of spaces allowed by this Seahawks Defensive Line. They have been strong against the run anyway, but you have to believe Seattle will make sure Taylor is not going to beat them and instead it is up to the Colts Quarter Back to make the plays needed.

A strong Defensive Line is backed up by very good work in the Secondary and this just feels like a difficult game in which to move the ball with any consistency as far as the Indianapolis Colts are concerned.

Turnovers could be key to helping Seattle pull clear in this game, much as they were in the win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Extra possessions and/or short fields gives the Seahawks an edge and they should be able to make enough plays to push forward and earn a big victory.

Running the ball against the Colts Defensive Line has been a challenge all season, but there have been improvements made in the Seattle run blocking and that could at least help them keep Sam Darnold in third and manageable positions on the field. The Quarter Back has been solid in his first season with the Seahawks and he should be able to expose an injury hit Colts Secondary.

Pass rush pressure has been able to get to Sam Darnold at times and the Colts can still find a push up front, although it will be difficult to make stops consistently and especially if the Offensive unit are losing the field battle.

The spread is a wide one and the Indianapolis Colts have to be respected for the fight they have been showing, despite injuries beginning to really take a toll.

They were unable to stay with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14, who also have a solid Defensive unit, and the Seattle Seahawks may make enough plays on that side of the ball to be in a position to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cleveland Browns + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 34-41, - 10.54 Units (75 Units Staked, - 14.05% Yield)