It does feel harsh on the Fighting Irish to miss out, but being an Independent comes with some danger and the head to head against the Miami Hurricanes ultimately made the difference.
Things may have been different if the Hurricanes had made the ACC Championship Game- win or lose, that would have meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish would have likely been invited into the final twelve and the Conference has made it clear that they will change their tiebreaker rules in 2026.
The ACC would have been frustrated if the Hurricanes had missed out seeing as their underdog Champion Duke Blue Devils were always going to be left out.
Instead there are two Power 5 Conference Champions playing in the First Round as big underdogs, but with nothing to lose.
Those should be dominated by two strong home favourites, but there are two very competitive looking First Round games to be played on Friday and Saturday and it should be a really good start to the College Football Playoffs.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: There has been a lot of controversy around some of the selections made for the College Football Playoff this season and the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) were one of the big names that people felt have been fortunate to reach the twelve team Playoff.
That was after the blowout loss in the SEC Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs, which meant a third defeat of the season.
Some believe Alabama should have been punished for the manner of the SEC Championship Game defeat, but those involved with the Crimson Tide have made it very clear that reaching the Conference Championship should mean being involved in a game that should not have an impact on the final standings.
No one is going to be really happy about the outcome, but Alabama have to travel to Norman in the First Round and prove they deserve to be amongst the final twelve. Win here and the Crimson Tide will take aim at the Number 1 Seed, although it has been a far from ideal build up towards the First Round after the controversy of the selection and reports linking Head Coach Kalen DeBoer with the suddenly vacant Head Coach role with the Michigan Wolverines.
Denials have been made by DeBoer and the school, but it is not ideal as the Crimson Tide travel to face the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) in a rematch of a regular season game.
A little over a month ago, Oklahoma Sooners left Tuscaloosa with a victory that virtually secured a spot in the Playoff and the opportunity to host this game. Four straight wins to conclude the regular season will have given the Sooners confidence, although the last couple of performances were far from ideal from an Offensive unit that have not impressed at all.
This is where the challenge is on Friday night to open the College Football Playoffs.
Even in the win over Alabama on the road, the Sooners struggled mightily for any kind of consistency from the Offensive unit and it was big Defensive and Special Teams plays that allowed them to escape with the upset. They were massively outgained in terms of Offensive yardage, although Oklahoma have been a little more convincing overall when playing in Norman.
Like most teams, the Sooners will not shy away from trying to run the ball, but that is going to be a huge challenge for an Offensive Line that were struggling down the stretch and now facing this Alabama Defensive Line.
All of that adds up to the pressure once again being on Quarter Back John Mateer, who did throw for over 2500 passing yards, but also had 12 Touchdown passes and 10 Interceptions.
During this four game winning run, John Mateer has been held to under 175 passing yards three times and the Crimson Tide Secondary have shown up pretty well down the stretch. Big, explosive plays have been produced by the Mateer arm and that is something the Alabama Crimson Tide will have to be aware of, but they held the Quarter Back to 138 passing yards at home and will feel they can make enough plays to give their own Offensive unit an opportunity for redemption.
Ty Simpson has not played well in the last couple of starts for Alabama as he continues to deal with an undisclosed injury, but there has been a couple of weeks of rest since the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide will be hoping that he has had enough time to at least feel better about what he can do on a football field and especially as Alabama will need the Quarter Back being able to throw the ball with confidence.
In the first game in the regular season, Alabama did have issues running the ball and even a returning Jam Miller may not make much of a difference against this strong Sooners Defensive Line.
However, it was Ty Simpson who had given the Crimson Tide a chance having thrown for over 300 passing yards, although the Interception thrown and a Fumble lost were costly parts of the reason Alabama failed to win.
As the season has wound down, there have been holes in this Oklahoma Secondary which can be exploited, although the question will be how healthy Ty Simpson feels?
We cannot really answer that, but this feels like a chance for Alabama to bounce back and earn revenge for the loss in Tuscaloosa to this Oklahoma team.
It should be another close, competitive game, especially with so much on the line.
Alabama should be very motivated to show they belong in the First Round of the Playoff after all of the controversy, although they will be well aware that all four hosts won in this Round twelve months ago.
None of those games were expected to be anything as competitive as this one looks though and the Crimson Tide are backed to find a way in Norman in a hostile environment.
Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: If the inclusion of the Alabama Crimson Tide is considered controversial, having an ACC representative that did not win the Conference Championship involved has really stirred things up.
The Miami Hurricanes (10-2) were given plenty of respect by the Playoff Committee down the stretch, but they were not able to push their way into the ACC Championship Game. Ultimately that may not have been a bad thing knowing a defeat would have meant elimination, but Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans will be absolutely sickened to finally have been passed by the Hurricanes in the final Playoff Rankings.
All of the controversy means there is some pressure on Miami and they are heading out on the road for the First Round of the Playoffs against what had been one of the more impressive teams in the SEC.
The Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) will be disappointed that a single loss in the final week of the regular season saw them drop out of the top four in the Rankings, but they are hosting and will be looking to bounce back from that loss to the Longhorns. It was the Defensive unit that really let them down that day, but for the majority of the season the Aggies have played well on that side of the ball and they have had a bit of time to reassess, refocus, and make sure they are ready to compete.
Plenty of people believe these teams are well matched and will want to approach this game in similar ways, and it has also been noted that both the Hurricanes and Aggies have not really faced schedules as tough as they may have been. Both have beaten the Florida Gators in dominant fashion during the regular season, but this is another of the very close looking opening Round Playoff games and the team that plays the cleanest is likely to move on to face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the next Round.
The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important on both sides of the ball- credit has to be given to the Hurricanes and Aggies for knowing that they can open up the playbook by making sure they are performing from in front of the chains and both will be looking to pound the rock behind strong Offensive Lines.
However, the challenge is that they will be going up against two Defensive Lines that have found a way to clamp down on the run more often than not. Again you have to point out that these teams have not faced an opponent like the other, so there is a bigger test coming up, and that is a key part of this game.
Carson Beck and Marcel Reed have both been playing really well at Quarter Back and the passing numbers will offer them plenty of encouragement.
The Hurricanes may take further confidence from some of the issues that the Aggies have had when facing stronger Offensive units this season, while the Miami Defensive unit has kept the team in games. That may be the slight edge needed in what looks like a First Round game that will come down to the wire and the Hurricanes have every chance of finding a way of getting through as an outright winner.
Having the hook over the key number 3 would have been ideal, but backing the Hurricanes with the points looks the right play, even if this Texas A&M Aggies team have impressed against a relatively weak SEC schedule.
Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Weak Conferences have allowed a couple of Champions from the Power 5 Conferences to earn spots in the College Football Playoff in 2025.
An upset in the American Conference Championship Game has earned the Tulane Green Wave (11-2) a place in the First Round, but the successes under Head Coach Jon Sumrall has gotten the attention of bigger schools. He is going to depart to take over at the Florida Gators, but Sumrall Coached the win over North Texas in the Conference Championship Game and he will get the chance to sign off with the Green Wave.
They are big underdogs going up against the Mississippi Rebels (11-1), although there has been plenty of upheaval around the team after Lane Kiffin finally decided to leave as Head Coach for a job at the LSU Tigers. It is a decision that has not gone down very well with anyone associated with the Rebels, but the players look focused after it was announced that Kiffin will not be Coaching in the post-season.
Instead Pete Golding has been promoted from within to take over as Head Coach and the hope is that there is some continuity that allows the Rebels to finish 2025 with a flourish. Some of the Coaches that will be departing for LSU along with the former Head Coach have been given a reprieve to stand on the sidelines in the Playoffs, but there is still some uncertainty about how the Rebels will perform.
They are big favourites, which is not a surprise considering the disparity in talent level between a team from the SEC and the American Conferences, while the Rebels have already blown out Tulane in this Stadium in the regular season.
You have to think the Green Wave will have been watching tape of that regular season meeting and looking to make adjustments, while avoiding turnovers is absolutely key in any upset bid.
The Green Wave struggled to run the ball efficiently in the regular season game and that could be the situation for them again, which means the pressure is on Jake Retzlaff. The Quarter Back had 56 passing yards and completed just 5/17 throws in the regular season loss and there will be some wariness about facing a Mississippi Secondary that finished the regular season making big play after big play.
At a lower level, Tulane's Defensive Line have played well and they have been able to clamp down on the run in recent victories, but it isn't too often that they will be coming up against SEC Offensive Lines. The Rebels Offensive Line have been helping establish the run all season and they managed to help the team put up 5.7 yards per carry in a 241 yard day in the win over Tulane in the regular season.
Trinidad Chambliss has been reported to be thinking about his options for next season after a strong year under Center for the Mississippi Rebels.
The Quarter Back should be able to have a comfortable day with the team expected to keep him in front of the chains and he had over 300 passing yards and 2 Touchdown passes already against this Tulane Secondary.
Unsurprisingly the spread is bigger for this First Round Playoff game than it was in the regular season with the line now crossing another key number 17.
However, the Mississippi Rebels do look considerably stronger than the American Champions and that should show up- the players are likely going to be pretty focused to remind people of their quality and move past the Lane Kiffin era and it may be tough for the Green Wave to keep up, much like it was when the teams met back in September.
James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks Pick: There is no reason to be angry with James Madison Dukes (12-1) for making it through to the College Football Playoff at the expense of surprising ACC Champions Duke Blue Devils. Are the Dukes one of the best twelve teams in College Football? No, but they are a Conference Champion and the current selection policy means they have every right to be involved in the First Round.
Of course they have been set as the biggest underdog of the Round as they prepare to travel to face the Oregon Ducks (11-1) who are one of three Big Ten teams that are playing in the Playoffs.
They are the only one involved in the First Round, but the Oregon Ducks may feel that gives them a chance to play themselves into positive form having been given a Bye into the Quarter Final last year, but losing the opening game.
The Bracket also presents an opportunity with the winner of this game facing the Texas Tech Red Raiders- there is no doubting how good the Big 12 Champions are, but it feels eminently more winnable than facing the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes or Georgia Bulldogs and that is something the Oregon Ducks will consider.
Oregon are hosting and they have won six in a row, while covering in three straight, which suggests they finished the season in confident form.
The Ducks are very balanced on the Offensive side of the ball and that is going to make it very difficult for James Madison Dukes, especially as they will not have faced teams with the talent and speed of Oregon very often. The sole defeat this season was a 14 point loss at the Louisville Cardinals, but James Madison upset North Carolina Tar Heels last season and will feel they have 'nothing to lose'.
Stopping this Oregon team will be extremely challenging, but the Dukes will have to see if they can put up enough Offensive output of their own to keep this competitive.
Everything will depend on the Line of Scrimmage when the Dukes have the ball- James Madison's Offensive Line have been very good at the Sun Belt Conference level and controlling the clock and the tempo has to be the plan for the big underdog.
However, they are facing an Oregon Defensive Line which has been very strong all season and while playing a higher class of opponent.
Alonza Barnett III has played well at Quarter Back to back up the strong running game, but it is a very different challenge if he is playing from behind the chains and against a top Big Ten opponent on the road.
It is simply not being used to facing competition of this level that is one challenge and this Oregon Secondary are giving nothing away.
Trying to find an upset on the road just feels too tall a task and the Oregon Ducks should have enough to pull clear and cover as the big home favourite.
MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 15: 2-2, - 0.29 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)
Week 14: 5-2-1, + 2.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 30.50% Yield)
Week 13: 3-3, - 0.35 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield
Week 12: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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