NBA Picks 2025- Play In Tournament (Tuesday 15th April-Friday 18th April)

The 4-0-1 run for the NBA Picks in the 2024 Finals proved to be the difference between a winning and losing season for the selections.

Matching the Playoff run through the 2023 tournament was always going to be challenging, but back to back years with a profit returned cannot be ignored.

After a long regular season, and the second NBA Cup, we are back into the post-season beginning with the Play In Tournament from Tuesday through to Friday. We have seen the opening schedule for the Game 1s of the First Round with four to be played on Saturday and four to be played on Sunday and it is no surprise that the four teams that are able to come through the Play In Tournament will be featured on the second of those days.

Of course the final two places will not be decided until Friday and so those two teams will be the ones with the least amount of recovery and preparation before the Playoffs get underway, but that is the downside of either finishing as a the Number 9 or 10 Seed in either Conference or having lost the battle between the Number 7 and Number 8 Seeds.

Those opening games between the highest Seeds involved in the Play In Tournament have been set for Tuesday with the first elimination games played on Wednesday.

The regular season may still be tweaked in the years ahead to ensure games matter even more than they do now, although that does not mean it was a year devoid of storylines.

Even now, the trade made by the Dallas Mavericks to move Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers is being felt throughout the League and the former of those teams has to find a way to win two games and earn a spot in the First Round of the Playoffs. Anything less than that will have Mavericks fans wondering whether there should be firings in the executive areas of the team, namely Nico Harrison, especially as it would have happened less than twelve months since Dallas were playing in the NBA Finals.

It is a big week for the likes of the Golden State Warriors and Orlando Magic, two teams in each Conference that will certainly feel they can give the top Seeds something to think about if they are able to make it through the Play In Tournament. Others may value the experience that participating in the First Round of the Playoffs will give them, even if they are not expected to have a big impact in the Playoff and so there will be plenty of motivation on display when the first phase of the post-season this week.

As in previous years, the First Round Picks for the NBA Playoffs will be split into a couple of threads, but the first of those will be published on Friday evening/Saturday morning.

Before that, the focus is on the Play In Tournament with selections added to this thread over the next four days as the match ups are set.

Tuesday 15th April

Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The regular season series may have been split 2-2, but you cannot place a lot of stock in the Atlanta Hawks win over the Orlando Magic on the final day of the regular season. The Seeds for the Play In Tournament had already been set by then and both the Hawks and Magic knew they would be meeting in Orlando in the first of the Play In games with the teams holding the Number 7 and 8 Seeds.

The reason the Orlando Magic are hosting is thanks to a home win over the Atlanta Hawks last week and that was a game that had meant a lot to both teams.

It will give the Magic the mental edge in this game where the winner will move into the bracket for the Playoff with a Series against the Boston Celtics to come. The losing team will have a second opportunity to earn a spot in the post-season later in the week when hosting the winner of the Chicago-Miami Play In Tournament game, but neither Orlando nor Atlanta will be thinking about anything other than winning this one.

The top two Seeds in the Eastern Conference are both looking very strong and will be tough to beat, but the Orlando Magic may be the most dangerous opponent to meet. Injuries are perhaps the main reason Orlando finished 3 games out of the top six in the Eastern Conference with the likes of Frank Wagner and Paolo Banchero missing significant time during the regular season, but both have been influential to earning the top spot in the Play In Tournament.

Jalen Suggs is missing, which is a blow, but the Orlando Magic have continued to play strong Defensive basketball and that is expected to be key in this game. When beating the Atlanta Hawks at home last week, Orlando were a bit more careful with the ball, but the key was matching the three point output of the Hawks on the night.

They may need more of the same in this one with Atlanta still looking like a team that can rack up the points on any given night. Trae Young has shown his ability to perform in the pressurised environment of the post-season plenty of times and the Hawks finished the season in very consistent form on the Offensive side of the court, although they will have to respect how well Orlando have played against that.

There is also pressure on the Hawks Offensively as they have not performed as well on the other side of the court throughout the season. This Orlando team may not be that convincing Offensively, but they have those players like Banchero and Frank Wagner capable of doing enough and that is how this opening Play In Tournament may end up landings.

With the Magic better at home, they can do enough Offensively to keep the Hawks under some pressure and that should allow the Defensive schemes to just pressurise the road team to force up some shots. As long as the Magic continue to challenge on the boards as they did last week, Orlando can find a way to win this game and cover the spread set.

The Number 7 Seed is 6-2 in the Play In Tournament since this format was introduced and the Orlando Magic can extend that further with the win and cover.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Pick: They were one of a handful of teams that had so much riding on the final regular season game, but the Golden State Warriors were beaten at home in Overtime by the LA Clippers. Despite being one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the All Star Game, that defeat has cost the Warriors an opportunity to take their place in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs and instead they enter the Play In Tournament.

This is still a veteran team that will feel they can have a major impact in the post-season, but the key for the Warriors may be winning this first of potentially two Play In Tournament games. Winning this one would mean facing the Houston Rockets in the First Round, which feels a much more winnable Series than having to go in with the Number 1 Seed and title favourites Oklahoma City Thunder.

Head Coach Steve Kerr will not be too concerned, but it does feel the Number 7 Seed in the Playoff will offer Golden State a much better chance to really build momentum. With players like Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler in the rotation, the Warriors are going to be very dangerous if they can play their way into the First Round.

This opening Play In Tournament game sees the Warriors hosting the Memphis Grizzlies, who had a late, disappointing collapse in their own bid to earn a top six finish in the tough Western Conference. Memphis did win four of their last six games, but consecutive defeats to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets saw those two teams earn one of the top six places and with Memphis now scrambling for a spot in the First Round.

The losing team is likely going to be a favourite in the last elimination game later this week, but having to face the Thunder in the First Round instead of the Rockets will mean there is plenty of motivation to avoid that pressurised final game.

With Ja Morant in the lineup, there has not been a lot wrong with the Memphis Offensive approach down the stretch, although this is a tough test for them against the Golden State Defense. It becomes that much more challenging on the road and the Grizzlies may be put under pressure by the continued absence of Jaylen Wells.

His absence has really been felt on the Defensive side of the court and that may be the case again on Tuesday as they prepare to face an opponent that won three of the four regular season games. That includes the Golden State Warriors winning as a road favourite at the Memphis Grizzlies earlier this month when Steph Curry put up 52 points and was well backed by Jimmy Butler (27 points).

This feels like a decent enough match up for the Warriors and they should have had ample time to recover emotionally and physically from the Overtime loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That game was played in the afternoon and this one is set for Tuesday evening so there will be no excuses for Golden State as they look to avoid an elmination from this Play In Tournament format for the third time in five years.

Last year they were beaten as the Number 10 Seed, while losses to the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies saw the Warriors eliminated in 2021. It has been a few seasons, but revenge can be earned for that home defeat in 2021 with a strong victory over Memphis to take their place as the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference Playoff bracket.

Wednesday 16th April

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The regular season has been completed and we move into a portion of the schedule where experience can be more valuable than outright talent.

The experience edge has to be with the Miami Heat in the first elimination game played in the Play In Tournament in 2025 when the Number 10 Seed visit the Chicago Bulls. However, it is the Number 9 Seeded Bulls hosting this game and they will point out that they have won all three regular season games between these rivals and all have been played since February.

That includes the Bulls beating the Miami Heat by 8 points last week, which is effectively why Chicago are hosting rather than travelling to South Florida. In saying that, the situation is a bit different in this Play In Tournament game compared with the three regular season games and that is because the Bulls have been set as the favourite, albeit narrow favourite, for the first time.

Players and fans will know that and that does build pressure with a sense of expectation around the team.

Trades were made by both Chicago and Miami during the regular season which will have dampened enthusiasm for a deep post-season run and both know that their only opponent in the First Round is the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers. Even reaching that Round will mean winning two games in a row this week, but the focus has to be on Wednesday when the 'win or go home' state first comes up.

Seeding has tended to be important in the opening Play In Tournament games and the Number 9 Seed has a 6-2 record against the Number 10 Seed. That includes Chicago winning as a host in 2024, while in 2023 the Bulls were one of the Number 10 Seeds that have secured a road upset to move through.

In saying that, it will not have been lost on anyone that both the 2023 and 2024 Play In Tournament runs ended in the Number 8 Seed Game and both times the Chicago Bulls have fallen at the hands of the Miami Heat.

This is going to be a mental factor that the Bulls have to overcome if they are going to progress and earn one more shot at taking their place in the post-season.

Chicago will need their key players to be healthy and all of the talk in the City is about Josh Giddey and his availability after it was announced he has been dealing with tendinitis issue that could affect his three point shooting capabilities. Like many of the starters, he was rested at times down the stretch in order to be ready to compete and his status is going to be important.

The expectation is that he will suit up and this is a Bulls team that have dominated those they will have expected to beat in recent games. However, the team have struggled against the top teams and so anything more than a First Round Playoff run would be seen as a huge success.

They will be able to attack a Miami team that have not been as strong since trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors, but a team that could benefit from the development some of the younger players have had. Like Chicago, the Heat were focused on the Play In Tournament when concluding the regular season and they will be confident that they can create the situations to hurt a Bulls team missing some of their better Defensive talent.

However, the Heat no longer have that go-to player who can take a post-season game over, while the team lost four of their last six games to close out the regular season. When they played here last week, the Heat actually won the turnover battle, but that was still not enough to secure the victory and Josh Giddey's availability would see this game lean in favour of the hosts.

This is not a big spread so it is reasonable to point out that the Heat have struggled as road underdogs with a 6-14 record in twenty games played in that spot. It is the first time they are being given points against Chicago this season, but those three regular season wins have to count for something and recent history continues to give the Number 9 Seed the advantage in this elimination Play In Tournament game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Both of these teams made big moves by trading away their best Guard ahead of the trade deadline, but there is little doubt that the biggest noise continues to be around the one that the Dallas Mavericks made.

Most teams may have shopped around for the best haul when talking about moving a potentially generational talent, but Nico Harrison has been hugely criticised for not only deciding that the Mavericks are better off without Luke Doncic. Furthering the disgust of the fans has been the news that Harrison had focused only on Anthony Davis as the trade piece he wanted back and so Dallas quietly moved behind the scenes to make a really poor trade with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Poor for the Mavericks, not for the Number 3 Seeded Lakers.

This is going to go down as a historically poor trade and even winning the NBA Championship may not be enough to excuse Nico Harrison's thinking.

The reality is that the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals last year with Luka Doncic a huge piece of that run, but this year they have almost backed into the Play In Tournament and Kyrie Irving has been injured and ruled out for the remainder of the season. Many were baffled that Harrison was so keen to bring in injury-prone Anthony Davis and that is how it has worked out with Davis missing considerable time, although available for this Play In Tournament game.

When the Sacramento Kings moved De'Aaron Fox days after the Doncic trade, it barely made a blip on the radar that was still shaking by what Dallas had done.

The Kings have not exactly been flying since their own trade, but they have been solid and they look to have a team that can produce too much scoring for the current Dallas Mavericks roster. Being at home is another advantage, while the Kings have won both regular season games against the Mavericks since February.

Four losses in five games to round out the regular season offers little encouragement for fans of the Dallas Mavericks and they are likely going to need some fortune if they are going to prolong their season for a few more days. Ultimately they will need the Sacramento shooters to have a poor evening shooting the ball if the Mavericks are going to be able to impose their size on this Play In Tournament game, but that feels like a big ask and Sacramento may have too much.

Sacramento blew out the Golden State Warriors in this exact same spot twelve months ago and there is a chance that this gets out of hand for the Dallas Mavericks.

In recent games, the Dallas Mavericks have been inconsistent when it comes to shooting the three point shot and there is every chance this game becomes ugly if they are being forced to throw up too many of those shots. They are also playing a Kings team that have been pretty good Defensively over the last couple of weeks and one that has the Offensive talent to really push the pace against their opponent.

Nico Harrison is going to have some big questions to answer from those above him if the Mavericks are bounced out early having reached the NBA Finals in 2024, but that looks the only likely outcome of this elimination game. Fans will be wondering what may have been if someone could have stopped the trade that rocked the NBA world, and that may become even more painful to watch and/or read if Dallas do not make the First Round of the Playoff and the Los Angeles Lakers have the kind of run that many feel they can.

MY PICKS: 15/04 Orlando Magic - 5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

15/04 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

16/04 Chicago Bulls - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

16/04 Sacramento Kings - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Play In Tournament: 1-1, - 0.10 Units (2 Units Staked, - 5% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 13th April)

It did feel like the Semi Final was going to get away from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but the battling qualities on the clay courts was on display and it helped him to a competitive defeat against Carlos Alcaraz.

This may not be good news for Davidovich Fokina, but it was for the Tennis Picks with another winner on the board here in Monte Carlo.

On Sunday the tournament comes to a conclusion before important ATP events in Munich and Barcelona next week as the big names continue to get as much clay court tennis under the legs before the second Grand Slam of the season begins. The Final should be a decent match in Monte Carlo, but it is hard to look past Carlos Alcaraz to win the trophy and just underline his status as the player to beat in Paris in June.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There have been successes at Grand Slam level, which is always most important to any player on the Tour, but Carlos Alcaraz will be pleased to end a relatively long wait for a place in the Final of an ATP 1000 event.

Winning the title on Sunday will move Carlos Alcaraz back into World Number 2 and he will certainly feel he can build momentum towards the defence of the French Open title won last year. While his main rival Jannik Sinner continues to serve a suspension, Carlos Alcaraz can build his own confidence and the Spaniard is a strong favourite to win the title in Monte Carlo.

We have not always seen his very best tennis at the tournament, but Carlos Alcaraz has played well and the Semi Final victory will have only improved his own belief.

He will be facing Lorenzo Musetti in the Final and the World Number 16 has to be respected for his ability and comfort on the red dirt. However, the Italian has had to dig very deep in the last couple of Rounds in his wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur and you do have to wonder if the accumulated fatigue works against Lorenzo Musetti, especially with the Final scheduled for earlier in the day than would usually be the case.

The challenge for Lorenzo Musetti is being able to serve well enough to contain the threat of Carlos Alcaraz.

In the last two wins, Musetti has faced twenty-nine Break Points and that suggests he will have some issue against Carlos Alcaraz who has won 47% of return points played this week and has broken in 42% of return games played. The issue for Alcaraz has been protecting his own serve, although Lorenzo Musetti has had his difficulties against this opponent in recent meetings.

You cannot rule out Lorenzo Musetti from making this competitive considering how well he can perform on this surface, but this feels a tough ask with the match being played without a lot of rest and recovery time.

A fast start will be needed from the Italian, but Carlos Alcaraz has looked like he has been enjoying his time here in Monte Carlo and the may just be able to get through those early moments to take control of the Final. With his returning working well so far this week, Carlos Alcaraz may just come through with a victory along with a cover of this handicap set.

MY PICK: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 5-1, + 3.49 Units (6 Units Staked, + 58.17% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Jaron Ennis vs Eimantas Stanionis (Saturday 12th April)

When the money is as good as some of the top names in the Boxing community are earning, it is always the hardest thing to let go.

The reality is that for fighters like Joe Joyce, they are unlikely to be in a position to earn at their current levels doing anything else and that makes it that much harder to accept when your time is finished in the ring.

Even Frank Warren sounded a little nervous to commit to further fights promoting Joyce after his latest loss, but this is not a decision for Warren, but one that Joe Joyce is going to have to make himself.

He was not completely outclassed by Filip Hrgovic, but the Croatian has not exactly looked like a top level Heavyweight himself in recent outings and so you have to believe the upper echelon of the Division is now beyond the reach of Joe Joyce. Does he really want to become something of a gate-keeper at 39 years old and with the reflexes slowing down all the time? He cannot seriously believe he can become a World Champion now, even if the Titles are eventually fragmented again, and so that conversation about retirement will have to be had by those around him.

Sometimes the fighter does need to be protected from themselves, but news that Josh Warrington is making another return this week just underlines the point about how hard it is to accept limitations.

Speaking about Warrington, it did felt like something was left in the tank even after suffering a third straight loss and he may get one more big run. That seems much more unlikely for Joe Joyce and that is where people do need to have his best interests at heart.

Last weekend was a crossroads fight for Joyce and Hrgovic and the same could be said for Tim Tszyu who secured a big win after consecutive defeats in the United States. He looks in line to face Keith Thurman as he continues his rebuild, while the controversial ending to David Adeleye's win over TKV has already had the British Board request for a rematch.

Richard Torrez Jr continues his move up the Heavyweight World Rankings with a solid win on the board and it was another good week of action for fans of the sport.

We are now just two weeks away from the Chris Eubank Jr vs Conor Benn card, but there is a big rematch in British terms next weekend when Ben Whittaker and Liam Cameron meet for a second time.

However, the biggest fight left in April should be coming from Atlantic City when the WBA and IBF World Titles in the Welterweight Division are Unified.

Some may feel this is also the bout that should determine the Number 1 in the Division, but Brian Norman Jr can certainly make a challenge to that and is potentially next in line for the winner in yet another Unification.

Jaron Ennis vs Eimantas Stanionis

With Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford moved on after deciding the best in the 147 pound Division in July 2023, the Welterweights have perhaps lost some of the star appeal that has been associated with those fighting for the World Titles for years.

There had been a lot of hype around Jaron Ennis, but recent performances have raised more questions than answers.

He can make a real statement this weekend if he can Unify two of the four World Titles and the hope is that we will continue to see the Champions fight one another through the remainder of the calendar year.

Winning the Interim IBF World Title in January 2023 should have sparked the Jaron Ennis run, but he has struggled to entice a really big name in the ring with him. Two wins over Karen Chukhadzhian and further victories over Roiman Villa and David Avanesyan are not exactly going to bring Ennis to the forefront and he needs to win this fight and win well.

No one should doubt the ability of the IBF World Champion, even if some believe he has been getting hit more than he should against limited opposition. Some of that may be down to the lacklustre names in front of him, but Jaron Ennis will not have many excuses if he underperforms against an unbeaten WBA World Champion.

Eimantas Stanionis won the Regular WBA World Title in his fourteenth fight and defended it in his fifteenth, but has since been upgraded to full World Champion. The worrying part of that is that those two fights took place in April 2022 and August 2024 and inactivity has been a real issue for the 30 year old.

After the Covid pandemic, Stanionis was out twice in quick succession, but there has to be a big impact in his development that his last seven fights have been since December 2019. There is inactivity and there is inactivity and while some of it has not been the fault of the fighter, you do have to wonder how ready the Lithuanian can be for a challenge like this one.

You may look at the Jaron Ennis resume and become a little underwhelmed, but there is almost nothing on the Eimantas Stanionis resume that would have you sit up and take notice.

He has proven to be tough and Stanionis should help create an interesting fight with his come forward style, but this is likely going to end with Jaron Ennis having a chance to show off why so many believe he is the best in the Division.

We should see all of the Ennis skills as he breaks down an opponent that has not really been prepared for this kind of test, while the IBF World Champion has had two solid fights in 2024 and should be improving with the regular return to the ring.

There will be plenty of eyes on this fight, and it is one where Jaron Ennis may just grow as it develops with the American forcing a Stoppage at some stage in the second half of the contest.

MY PICKS: Jaron Ennis to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 15-33, - 10.73 Units (58 Units Staked, - 18.50% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 12th April)

Most, not all, of the Masters events played on the ATP Tour have been extended a few days rather than played within a single week, but the Monte Carlo Masters is a rare event that sticks with the traditional format.

It does mean a fast moving tournament is into the final two days with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.

Some of the top names have been playing here this week with this being the first big step on the road to the French Open, but it is the defending Roland Garros Champion who is the highest Seed remaining in the tournament.

His opponent secured an easy win for the Tennis Picks in the Quarter Final and that has just ensured a solid bounce back after losing the first selection of the clay court season. There are still three potential Picks to be made before we can come to a conclusion on this being a positive week or not, but we are in a good position moving into Semi Final day.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina + 4.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: The feeling was that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would have too much clay court nous for Alexei Popyrin, but it still came as a slight surprise that he was able to win that Quarter Final without any issues at all.

The Spaniard did not face a Break Point in that win, and was able to create nine chances with three Breaks produced, but everyone on his team will be expecting a vastly tougher challenge when going up against the World Number 3.

Rafael Nadal had been the dominant clay court player in his time on the Tour and likely goes down as the greatest player on the surface, but Spanish tennis has been given a boost by the arrival of Carlos Alcaraz on the Tour. He is already a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and the World Number 3 is the defending French Open Champion, while likely going into Roland Garros as the favourite to win the title again.

However, it has not been the easiest of weeks for Carlos Alcaraz and he was given a real test in his Quarter Final win over Arthur Fils.

Players at the very elite level of tennis are always going to be looking for improvements and Carlos Alcaraz will certainly feel he can serve better than he has so far this week. His last two opponents have both created at least ten Break Points against him and that is something that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will look to exploit in his bid to earn the upset.

Of course the lower Ranked Spaniard is going to be have to be well aware of the returning power that Carlos Alcaraz has on any clay court.

It has been that aspect of his tennis that has helped him through to the Semi Final here and Alcaraz will not be overly concerned about the serve of the World Number 42, even if Davidovich Fokina is a player that can rally with just about anybody on the clay.

This is likely to be a tough match for both, much like it was when they met in Barcelona two years ago.

On that occasion Carlos Alcaraz was able to come through in two competitive sets, but both players managed to produce eleven Break Points and it was only converting four Breaks to three that helped Alcaraz to the victory.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has played well enough here in Monte Carlo to believe he can at least push the younger man again and this looks like plenty of games to be given to the former. There will be some moments where Davidovich Fokina is going to have to fend off the Carlos Alcaraz charge, but he is certainly capable of returning well enough to create opportunities of his own and ultimately that may see him cover, even in a likely losing effort.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-1, + 2.39 Units (5 Units Staked, + 47.80% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 11th April)

After making hard work of his Second Round win over Jordan Thompson, Stefanos Tsitsipas took all of his chances and dominated the big points in his comfortable win over Nuno Borges in the Third Round on Thursday to tick a winning selection.

We are moving into the Quarter Final Round on Friday with all four matches scheduled to be played- it was almost tempting to back Tsitsipas for a third time this week, but Lorenzo Musetti's performances have been strong enough to push back against that selection.

The feeling is that Carlos Alcaraz and Alex De Minaur will both win, but the handicap mark looks about right for both of those matches and just offers the underdog of covering, even in a losing effort.

That leaves just the one selection from the Quarter Final Round and that comes from the opening match of the day.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Both of these players earned 'upsets' to take their place in the Monte Carlo Masters Quarter Final, although you have to believe Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would have been 'expecting' his win over Jack Draper more than Alexei Popyrin may have done when facing Casper Ruud.

The win for Popyrin deserves plenty of respect on this surface and the Australian has been using his serve to build pressure.

All three of Alexei Popyrin's wins have been in three sets and he has perhaps had a bit of fortune behind them when you think all three of his opponents actually created more Break Points in those defeats. Take nothing away from someone winning the big points to progress, but it is an unsustainable method and you do have to wonder if Popyrin could just run out of fuel in what is expected to be another tough clay court match.

His opponent has fallen down the World Rankings in recent months and comes into the tournament as the World Number 42, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is very comfortable on the clay courts. The Spaniard has also needed three sets in two of his three wins in Monte Carlo, but he has looked more convincing in his victories and that should give Davidovich Fokina some confidence to take into this Quarter Final.

The serve is not the most convincing, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is an effective return players on the surface.

This could be the key to the outcome of this match and Davidovich Fokina looks to have a considerable edge over Alexei Popyrin in that department. While not always being the player that can be trusted to produce his best on any given day, the Spaniard may still have enough here to win the match and cover this mark as the favourite.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 3-1, + 1.59 Units (4 Units Staked, + 39.75% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th April)

It felt like another frustrating day was in the offing at the Monte Carlo Masters, but this time fortune smiled down on the Tennis Picks with some big moments going the way of the players selected.

This was in direct contrast to the opening day and has pushed the total back into a positive number.

The first clay court Picks of the season can be difficult to judge with players adjusting to the red dirt having largely competed on the hard courts to open 2025, but we should see pretty quick improvements in the level, even at this opening Masters tournament in the run towards Roland Garros.

However, saying all that, the Third Round matches scheduled for Thursday look tough and the sole pick is going back in with the defending Champion, even if he let me down a couple of days ago.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Nuno Borges: It took a bit of time to get into his rhythm, but by the end of the Second Round win over Jordan Thompson, Stefanos Tsitsipas was motoring.

This is a venue where Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to find his best tennis and the numbers were up to where he would have wanted them to be at the end of that win over Jordan Thompson.

However, in saying that, the Greek star will be expecting a sterner challenge from Nuno Borges and that in turn means having to come out and play some of his better tennis right from the start of this Third Round match. The defending Champion will have some confidence after a decent couple of months on the Tour and ahead of this clay court part of the year, but this is a tough event and the standard of opponent is taking a big step upwards.

Nuno Borges has two wins under his belt in Monte Carlo, although he was pushed all the way in the Second Round by clay court specialist Pedro Martinez. The opening win over Holger Rune is hard to judge considering the second set retirement that was forced upon the Dane, but Borges will be playing with plenty of belief, even with some mixed results on the surface so far this season.

The World Number 43 is a solid performer on the clay, but he was beaten relatively comfortably by Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface two years ago. While Nuno Borges has improved since then, this is still a big test on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and it may be just a little too much to ask against Stefanos Tsitsipas who loves playing here.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 2-1, + 0.93 Units (3 Units Staked, + 31% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 9th April)

The first clay court Tennis Pick of the season produced a frustrating result, but it is only day one and there are still two months of action to get through.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had his chances, but ultimately missed the cover by a game after missing the multiple Break Points opportunities he had in the middle of set two and beginning of set three. By the time he brought his clinical best tennis into the biggest moments, the cover was missed and the final set 6-2 win was too little, too late (for the Pick if not for his own personal record at the tournament in Monte Carlo).

The rest of the Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and it is another very busy day in Monte Carlo.

As frustrating as it was on Tuesday, taking careful steps is the only way forward if we want to build on what has been a productive start to the 2025 season.

Two matches have made the shortlist and the selections can be read below.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: Partnering with Marat Safin will have made the headlines, but Andrey Rublev will be much happier if it leads to a bit more consistency on the Tour. He is the World Number 9, which means a Bye through to the Second Round in Monte Carlo, but it has not been the most consistent of twelve months and Rublev is looking for answers to just turn things back around.

The form in 2025 has been feast of famine for Andrey Rublev- he has lost opening matches in Hong Kong, Indian Wells and Miami and was also beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has also won a big title in Doha and had a Quarter Final and Semi Final run during the indoor hard court season in Europe.

An opening clay court match would have been tough anyway, even if Rublev is very comfortable on the surface, but that challenge is that much greater when opposed by someone like Gael Monfils. All of the support in the crowd will be with the player on the other side of the net, which is a challenge to deal with, while Gael Monfils continues to enjoy an Indian Summer with some big performances throughout 2025.

His fightback to comfortably win his First Round match will have certainly helped Gael Monfils after a couple of difficult years playing on the clay. The numbers have not been good enough on the clay in recent seasons with the Gael Monfils serve looking vulnerable, but that First Round win will improve the confidence even as he steps up his level considerably to face a top ten Ranked opponent.

Andrey Rublev, for all his troubles, continues to serve well and that will be key in working his way past the veteran home player.

Breaks have to be expected in this match on this surface, but Andrey Rublev may get his clay court season underway with a solid win over an opponent in good form. His partnership with Marat Safin will be enjoyable to watch, and the hope for Rublev is that his compatriot can just help spark his season with a solid win to open up.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Valentin Vacherot: For the second year in a row, Valentin Vacherot represents Monaco in the Monte Carlo Masters and he is up against Grigor Dimitrov.

The 26 year old will receive plenty of support, although he is facing a popular player, but the World Number 255 has a gap in quality to bridge and that is the much bigger issue for him to deal with.

A Davis Cup win over Nuno Borges on the clay courts will have given Valentin Vacherot confidence, but the majority of the opponents he faces on the Tour are Ranked outside the top 100 and he was crushed by Damir Dzumhur last week in Bucharest.

The First Round win over Jan-Lennard Struff will help, but it is still asking a lot of Valentin Vacherot to compete with Grigor Dimitrov, even if the Bulgarian is much happier on the faster surfaces.

In saying that, it would be foolish to think that Grigor Dimitrov cannot compete on the clay courts with his positive numbers throughout his career suggesting otherwise. His First Round win over Nicolas Jarry underlines the ability of Dimitrov on the red dirt and the World Number 18 has won 66% of his matches played on the clay since the beginning of the 2022 season.

This includes a routine win over Valentin Vacherot on the clay courts of Monte Carlo twelve months ago when Grigor Dimitrov was able to find four Breaks of serve. During that match he only allowed a single Break Point to be created against his own serve and pushed through the gears through the second set to comfortably progress past the Wild Card.

Something similar could happen in this Second Round match with Grigor Dimitrov expected to be able to get on top of rallies as they develop.

Much like that match in 2024, the first set could be competitive, but that soon followed by a more routine set for Grigor Dimitrov and he can do the same here to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 8th April)

Finishing the Miami Masters with a positive return wrapped up the first quarter of the tennis season and concluded the opening stint on the hard courts.

As mentioned at the time, the decision was made to wait until the Monte Carlo Masters before the opening clay court Tennis Picks of the season would be made and that was mainly so the events on the European red dirt would begin. There have been events in the United States, which always feel like clay courts that play a lot differently than those in the build up towards the French Open, while the ATP events last week were at the 250 level and they were events which would give us some early indication of the form of those much lower in the World Rankings.

The Monte Carlo Masters is perhaps not seen in the same light as Madrid and Rome in the preparation for the French Open, but a very solid field has come together this week. For many it will be the first clay court action for several months in a competitive environment, and that can lead to some early upsets, but the picturesque setting should mean fans will arrive at the tournament in as good spirits as most of the contenders.

Most of the First Round has been completed through the first two days at the event, although there are still some opening matches to be played on Tuesday. On the same day, the top Seeds join the Monte Carlo party and this should be another solid week on the Tour for those on the ATP side of the table.

Stuttgart will be the first big event for those on the WTA Tour with that 500 level event being played next week ahead of the Madrid 1000 events to round out the month. All eyes will be sharpening up towards that second Grand Slam of the season with the men's tournament looking pretty wide open and Iga Swiatek still being the player to beat in the women's event.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The last two times these players have met on the Tour have been huge battles with both Jordan Thompson and Stefanos Tsitsipas working their way to a victory apiece. However, both were played on the hard courts and there feels like a big advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player when it comes to matches on the clay.

Furthering that advantage is this Second Round match being played in Monte Carlo where Stefanos Tsitsipas has really enjoyed his time.

His 22-3 record is one thing, but it should also be noted that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won the title in three of the last four years after returning to the event in 2021. The only exception was a Quarter Final defeat to Taylor Fritz in 2023, but the World Number 8 made up for that by winning the title in 2024 with wins over the likes of Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner on the way.

He was born in Greece and represents that nation, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is clearly very comfortable in Monte Carlo with this being his main home these days. That has been reflected in his level of performance at the event and since 2021, Tsitsipas has dominated most aspects of his tennis when playing at this Masters event.

The serve has been very strong, although the key to the successes that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had is the returning numbers with 37% of return games ending in a break of serve in his favour. Numbers on both the serve and return move even more in his favour when only considering matches against players Ranked lower than him and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be seen as a strong favourite, even in his first match back on the clay courts.

A couple of disappointing efforts in Indian Wells and Miami may have knocked the confidence, but being back on the red dirt will really help Stefanos Tsitsipas.

His opponent has come through a First Round match, so is adjusted to the conditions, but you have to consider Jordan Thompson as a pretty poor clay courter. The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston last week, and he had lost sixteen of seventeen clay court matches played on European soil before his First Round win.

Jordan Thompson can take confidence from that win, but his numbers have been really poor on the surface and going up against someone as comfortable on this surface as Stefanos Tsitsipas makes it hard to believe the former can be competitive.

The serve is a big weapon for Thompson on most surfaces, but that is not the case on the clay where patience is as important as power. Ultimately his return has also suffered with opponents capable of pushing him around the court and this may be a rare match against Stefanos Tsitsipas where the World Number 38 is unable to challenge the top ten player as he would like.

It is a big spread for a first match on the surface, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is capable of covering in surroundings where he has always felt right at home.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 68-51, + 13.08 Units (157 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 30th March)

The last match in Miami is set to feature a veteran Champion clinging onto his spot amongst the elite and a young, up and coming player who will want to become the next big star representing Czechia.

It is an intriguing Final, but you can read my thoughts below and the reason I am favouring Novak Djokovic to win a seventh title at the event.

After Aryna Sabalenka's strong win in the WTA Final, the Tennis Picks will be ending with a positive return from the event regardless of the outcome in the ATP Final.

Of course chasing one more winner is still the ambition with the tournament coming to a conclusion on Sunday, while most of the Tour are already preparing for the clay court season.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Jakub Mensik: There are already so many records held by Novak Djokovic in the world of tennis and he can become the player with the most titles in Miami if he is able to win on Sunday. At the moment Novak Djokovic shares the record with Andre Agassi with both players having secured six titles here, but the former World Number 1 has an opportunity to secure a very positive time in South Florida by winning a seventh.

He has not played in the Miami Final since 2016 when winning the last of three straight titles here and Novak Djokovic has produced some of his best tennis over the last several days to earn this shot.

The Semi Final proved to be a routine day in the office for Novak Djokovic as he once again got the better of Grigor Dimitrov and he has continued to pile the pressure on his opponents through strong serving. That has freed up the best return player of all time to take his chances at attacking on the return and Novak Djokovic has found a strong balance in his tennis to make him the favourite to win another title in Miami.

His opponent in the Miami Final has plenty of supporters and at 19 years old there is a feeling that Jakub Mensik will develop into a top 15 player at the worst. Three top 18 Ranked players have been beaten in the tournament, which will have given Jakub Mensik plenty of confidence, and he is already guaranteed a spot in the top 30 in the World Rankings at the end of this tournament.

The serve is going to be a big weapon for the player from Czechia over the next decade and it has proven to be very important in this tournament.

However, Jakub Mensik has not been nearly as effective on the return of serve and you have to believe that a veteran with the qualities of Novak Djokovic will find a way to get into the return games.

His win over Taylor Fritz will have given Jakub Mensik a huge amount of belief that he can compete with the best players on the Tour. It should also mean he can make this more competitive than when he was beaten by Novak Djokovic in Shanghai at the end of last year, although closing the gap is still a big ask of the teenager.

As may have been expected, Jakub Mensik struggled on the return when these two met in Shanghai and the Novak Djokovic return built up the pressure on the youngster. He was able to keep himself together for a while, but ultimately that pressure told and something similar could happen in the Miami Final with Novak Djokovic finding a way to break down Jakub Mensik and ultimately lead to a cover in the Miami Final.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 14-9, + 2.86 Units (23 Units Staked, + 12.43% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer II (Saturday 29th March)

With Terence Crawford set to leave the Light Middleweight Division permanently, it has opened things up for those left behind.

Sebastian Fundora has already taken advantage of some of the uncertainty and he produced a big win last week and is now looking to be a little more active than he has been after upsetting Tim Tszyu.

His next challenger looks to be lined up as unbeaten Xander Zayas has had his mandatory called, while Vergil Ortiz Jr will be looking to build on a big win of his own having secured an Interim World Title.

Fighters like Serhii Bohachuk, Erickson Lubin, Jesus Ramos and Callum Walsh should be in the mix and Tim Tszyu is back in early April as he begins a rebuild of his own after back to back losses. In the near future we can expect Jaron Ennis to join these names at the very top of the Light Middleweight Division, although his current ambition is to clear out the Welterweight Division, beginning with Eimantas Stanionis in April.

The big cards continue to be put out by the promoters and there are a couple of good looking headliners this weekend, although both are going to be taking place in the early hours of Sunday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom.

Both are also rematches of tight first fights with controversy attached.

Mikaela Mayer has to be given a lot of credit for offering Sandy Ryan a rematch considering the American has been on the wrong end of a couple of Decisions she felt she had earned and without having an opportunity to put those defeats right.

The winner is almost certainly going to be in line for a big fight against Lauren Price, who holds the other three World Titles in the Welterweight Division and there is little love lost between Mayer and Ryan, which should mean another fun, exciting battle between the two.

Over in Mexico William Zepeda has an opportunity to make a clearer statement in a bout against Tevin Farmer after earning a Decision win that many felt could have gone the other way.

A really poor run has put the 2025 Boxing Picks in a tough position, but March has been better than what had come in the first two months of the season.

Finishing up the month with another strong weekend will be a boost ahead of another strong month of action for fans of the sport.

William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer II

After meeting on the undercard of a big fight night set up in Saudi Arabia, William Zepeda was perhaps fortunate to get away with his unbeaten record intact.

That is certainly the feeling in the Tevin Farmer camp having put William Zepeda down and losing on a Split Decision- all three cards ended in a 95-94 score and it really was a fight that could have landed in favour of the veteran.

My feelings back in November was that William Zepeda would break down Tevin Farmer and ultimately outwork him through the early Rounds to sap the energy of the older fighter. He should have seen the lack of success rival Raymond Muratalla had by fighting at a slower tempo, but Zepeda has admitted that he lost his focus in the first fight with Tevin Farmer and he will be much more likely to stick to the game plan in the rematch.

This is key and the likelihood is that William Zepeda will have learned a lot more from the first fight compared with his opponent.

Tevin Farmer will come out and try and frustrate the home fighter again and his motivation will be plenty high considering the crossroads nature of the contest for the veteran. A win will likely mean a big fight, but a loss and Farmer will effectively become a gate-keeper at best and potentially think about retirement instead.

When you think of some of the names around the Lightweight Division, William Zepeda has to really look to make a statement in this rematch if he is going to get a shot against the likes of Gervonta Davis or Shakur Stevenson. A wide Decision will work with that in mind, but the feeling is that William Zepeda will have been thinking about his mistakes from the first fight and will be able to be a lot more composed in this one.

This time he should make the early investments that slow Farmer down and William Zepeda may be able to force the Stoppage that was expected when they met in Saudi Arabia.

This bout is scheduled for Twelve Rounds, not Ten, and that should also help William Zepeda when you think of how hurt Raymond Muratalla had Tevin Farmer in the second half of their contest. That was also scheduled for Ten Rounds and you do have to wonder if Muratalla may have got the job done without the cards with the extra six minutes ringtime.

William Zepeda may be the one that benefits and he looks worth backing to win this fight in the second half of the contest.

Once again Oscar Collazo is involved in a card that features William Zepeda and the Minimumweight World Champion made the biggest impact in Saudi Arabia back in November.

He has asked for more respect for the lowest of the weight classes in Boxing, but there is no doubt that people recognise how good Oscar Collazo is.

Holding two of the four World Titles, Oscar Collazo will be looking to Unify over the course of 2025, but he will head to Cancun ready to defend against home fighter Edwin Cano.

The Mexican is pretty highly Ranked with both the WBO and WBA, but he has not really mixed with the elite company and this is a big step up for a fighter that has two losses on his record.

Edwin Cano is not expected to be too difficult to find and the layers are expecting an easy night for the World Champion.

However, you have to expect some resilience from Cano and only one of the last seven Oscar Collazo fights have ended inside the first Four Rounds.

In saying that, not many have moved beyond the Seventh Round recently and the Unified World Champion may get this done in the middle of the contest.

The Top Rank card in Las Vegas is headlined by the Mikaela Mayer rematch with Sandy Ryan, but just like the layers, I am finding it tough to separate the two.

In Two Minute Rounds, the action can be very close and competitive and scoring those Rounds feels that much more difficult than in a Three Minute contest. It is unsurprising that so many of the top women fights end up in a bit of controversy or with Split Decisions read out and this one really could go either way.

There are a couple of good looking undercard contests with the 'A' side fighters looking to move forward with their careers.

Bruce Carrington is highly Ranked in all four governing bodies in the Featherweight Division and is set for a World Title tilt later this year.

Four wins were secured in 2024 as the level was stepped up and this feels like a contest in which Carrington can get through his work effectively.

The layers are expecting a Stoppage and Bruce Carrington will have his moments, but Enrique Vivas has shown some toughness in his defeats, which can be expected from any Boxer representing Mexico. He may just be able to get through the Ten Rounds, although the expectation is that Bruce Carrington will be a relatively comfortable winner on the cards.

One American will be chasing a World Title later in the year, but another on the undercard is looking to defend his Welterweight World Title for the first time.

Brian Norman Jr won the Interim World Title in impressive style last May, but was upgraded by the WBO after Terence Crawford moved up in Division.

His opponent, Derrieck Cuevas has been poking Norman Jr about not being a 'real' World Champion with that in mind, but the American has refused to bite back.

He was supposed to fight Jarron Ennis in a Unification at the back end of last year, but an injury ended that opportunity for Brian Norman Jr and he has to focus on getting the job done on Saturday. It has been a considerable length of time away from the ring, which will mean the early Rounds are about shaking off some of the rust that naturally develops, although it has to be noted that Cuevas has been away even longer than the defending Champion.

It feels like a fight in which they should gel, but Brian Norman Jr has been operating at a higher level and that class should show.

MY PICKS: William Zepeda to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oscar Collazo to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Bruce Carrington to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Brian Norman Jr to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 13-31, - 12.93 Units (53 Units Staked, - 24.40% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 29th March)

We are down to the final couple of days at the Miami Masters.

Saturday will place the spotlight on the two WTA Finalists as Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face Jessica Pegula and the tournament is going to be rounded out by the ATP Final on Sunday.

A win for Novak Djokovic has just pushed the Miami totals back in the right direction after his convincing win over Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final, although his opponent in the Final will be determined later on Friday evening.

This thread will be posted before that result is official, and the focus here is on the WTA Final.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The WTA Final in Miami will be competed by two of the top four players in the World Rankings and so it should be a decent contest.

The World Number 1 and top Seed in Miami, Aryna Sabalenka, has looked the more confident of the two players with the way she has dismissed all challengers to reach the Final. She has not lost a set, while Sabalenka has beaten three players that are Ranked inside the top 15 in the last three Rounds and that will give her plenty of confidence as she looks to win her first big title in 2025.

Nothing can be taken for granted by Aryna Sabalenka who has lost the Australian Open Final and Indian Wells Final already this season, but the match up has been one that she has enjoyed.

Jessica Pegula will point out that she has beaten Aryna Sabalenka twice on the hard courts and she was considerably lower Ranked when upsetting the Belarusian in Cincinnati in August 2020. She also lost 7-5, 7-5 in the US Open Final in September 2024 to show she can compete with the World Number 1, but Jessica Pegula is going to have to serve well and try and put Sabalenka under some pressure.

Her run through to the Miami Final has had more challenges and Jessica Pegula has dropped three sets in her five wins, including in each of the last two Rounds. And that may be a concern when you think that only player beaten in this tournament has been Ranked inside the top 30 and so Aryna Sabalenka represents a major step upwards in terms of an opponent.

The serve has been important for Jessica Pegula, but she has to find a way to be more consistent on the return if she is going to upset the top Seed.

Aryna Sabalenka has perhaps not served as well as Jessica Pegula as far as the numbers are concerned, but she is not that far behind and especially when you factor in Ranking of opponents faced. Where the World Number 1 has looked much more effective compared with Jessica Pegula has been on the return and she can certainly put the home player under pressure if she is not hitting her marks on the serve.

In their head to head matches on the hard courts, Aryna Sabalenka has been the stronger returner and she can show that here, while covering the handicap number set for the Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 13-9, + 1.99 Units (22 Units Staked, + 9.05% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 28th March)

For the first time in a little while, one of the Tennis Picks made on Thursday felt like it had gotten through the cracks and one that should not have been made.

There has been a real focus on my part to ensure that only selections that pass a few check boxes are written up, but the Arthur Fils selection in his Quarter Final felt like a wrong decision and is one to put in the learning box.

Jessica Pegula won, but did not cover on the day too, although that selection still feels like it would return as a winner more often than not and so it is not really one that will leave a bad taste in the mouth. In reality even the Picks that feel the best can ultimately lose, but it has been a clear approach to tighten the way the selection process is made.

We are onto ATP Semi Final day on Friday with the Women's and Men's Finals to be played over the weekend with both the headline match of Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Bouncing back from a poor Thursday is the only ambition from the Semi Final matches set to head out onto the court.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Failing to win a match since suffering an injury at the Australian Open had to have raised some concerns for fans of Novak Djokovic.

Reports suggested the former World Number 1 might have also called time on the surprising partnership with Andy Murray that had been announced on the eve of the new season beginning, although that was denied by Novak Djokovic.

With that in mind, it has been an important few days in Miami at the end of March with Novak Djokovic now the favourite to win the Masters event. His performances have been impressive and Djokovic has used the event to remind everyone that he remains one of the top players on the Tour, even if others are perhaps receiving a bit more attention for their tennis.

Novak Djokovic faces fellow veteran Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final with the Bulgarian also showing off considerable form at the event. Most importantly is the fact that Dimitrov has looked healthy with a number of mid-match retirements already on the board in 2025, which would have raised some concerns about the Bulgarian and his prospects.

The serve has been an immense weapon for Grigor Dimitrov in Miami, and that has perhaps covered up some of the returning shortcomings. This will be that much tougher to do on Friday in the ATP Semi Final against a return player as effective as Novak Djokovic and that will put Dimitrov under some pressure to get into the return games.

This looks a tough challenge considering the level of serving we have seen from Novak Djokovic throughout this Masters event.

He has also had significantly better returning numbers compared with Grigor Dimitrov, while Novak Djokovic holds the mental edge having won twelve of thirteen previous matches between the players. That record reads a perfect 7-0 on the hard courts and in those matches there has been a huge edge to Novak Djokovic on the serve (88% of games held compared with Grigor Dimitrov's 70% number).

There is no doubting the talent of Grigor Dimitrov and his ability to string points together when at his best, as he has been this week in Miami. However, Novak Djokovic is playing at a higher level and that has proven to be decisive when these players have met on the Tour in the past.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-9, + 1.24 Units (21 Units Staked, + 5.90% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 27th March)

With the new rules within tennis that they will not have matches beginning after a certain time to cut out the super late finishes that had frankly become far too common in recent years, the Miami Masters is slightly out of line right now.

Rain on Tuesday has meant a couple of matches have been pushed back and the Sebastian Korda-Novak Djokovic Quarter Final was bumped on Wednesday and instead will be played alongside two other ATP Quarter Final matches. However, the two WTA Semi Finals are also scheduled to take place on Thursday and there is every chance that one of those will have to be played on Friday, especially with the potential of another late start.

The schedulers have all five Singles matches set to be played on the same main court, but the 1pm start time means they will want all to be relatively quick if they are going to get through the entire day of play.

With that in mind, the second Pick on this thread is one that may ultimately be played on Friday instead, but it is the way the tournament has shaken up thanks to the huge amount of rain delays that were in place a couple of days ago.

A win for the one selection on Wednesday has just turned the Miami totals back around after a slump in the middle of the week- with a strong finish, there is every chance that the poor outcome from the Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks can be erased and push some momentum behind us prior to the clay court season getting underway.

In all likelihood, the first Picks from those tournaments will begin at the Monte Carlo Masters in the first full week of April with the opening events taking place in North America, Morocco and Bucharest.

The draws will determine if that is the case, but that is a matter for the weekend and the focus is on securing a few more winning selections before that.

Arthur Fils v Jakub Mensik: Two players who were young enough to compete in the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2024 meet in a big Masters Quarter Final on Thursday and the layers are struggling to split the two.

You can partly explain that away by the fact that Arthur Fils had to come from behind to beat Alexander Zverev in the Fourth Round on Wednesday. That match had originally been scheduled for Tuesday, but the rain in Miami meant having to wait, although the only benefit for Arthur Fils is that the upset over Alexander Zverev did not last more than two hours on the court.

However, while Arthur Fils was battling for a place in the Miami Quarter Final, Jakub Mensik had benefited from a walkover twenty-four hours earlier. Some of the rhythm may have been broken, but Mensik has had plenty of time to rest and recuperate for this big match as he looks for a win that would see him earn a new career high World Ranking at the event of the weekend.

Jakub Mensik is not Seeded in Miami and that means he has started a Round earlier than Arthur Fils so both players have had the same three wins to earn the spot in the last eight.

The 19 year old player from Czechia upset Jack Draper, the Indian Wells Champion, in the Second Round and Jakub Mensik has been serving very well in the conditions. The courts are playing pretty quickly in Miami and that has been an issue when it comes to the Mensik return and the slightly stronger numbers Arthur Fils has been producing in the event here should give him the edge.

In their meeting at the Next Gen Finals, Arthur Fils was able to produce the much more effective return play and he is playing well enough in Miami to believe he can do the same in this Quarter Final. Those Finals are played in a shorter set format, but the numbers on the day gave Fils a considerable edge and his performances this week look more in line with the season numbers and that should suggest that the higher Ranked player can at least maintain the standards set.

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Alexandra Eala: The 19 year old Filipino has stood next to tennis royalty in her time graduating from Rafa Nadal's Academy, but Alexandra Eala had not really pushed her way onto the main WTA Tour before taking a Wild Card in Miami.

She did not even attempt to make the main draw in Indian Wells, but instead had been playing at the lower level events on the hard courts in Mumbai and Trnava. Little impact had been made there with a 2-2 record and Alexandra Eala had failed to Qualify for the Australian Open and the tournament played in Singapore.

With all that in mind, Alexandra Eala may have arrived in Miami with very little expectation- winning one match would have given the World Ranking a boost, but things have clicked together for the left-hander and it has been an amazing run through to the WTA 1000 Semi Final.

This run has guaranteed a place in the top 100 for the first time, which will open up other opportunities, but it has been anything but a lucky run and that is where the confidence could really grow. In Miami, Alexandra Eala has beaten Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek, three former or current Grand Slam Champions and all without dropping a set.

It has been an incredible run.

Alexandra Eala may feel she has nothing to lose and there will be plenty of respect for Jessica Pegula, but no sense of fear about playing the World Number 4.

The serve has been a little vulnerable, but Eala has impressed massively on the return numbers and that is going to be a key battle in this Semi Final considering how well Jessica Pegula has been serving in the conditions. It was that serve that kept Emma Raducanu at bay in the Quarter Final and the last American left in the WTA tournament will feel that there is still more to come from the return of serve.

It will be important to try and keep Alexandra Eala under pressure on both the first and second serve deliveries. The 19 year old has similar numbers behind both of those shots and so Jessica Pegula has to feel she can get into most rallies on the return, while also trying to get on top of the first strike momentum that landing her own opening shot can produce.

Some players on the WTA Tour have shown that they can ride the momentum all the way to a surprise title and Alexandra Eala has all of the momentum after the performances and results to work her way through to the Semi Final.

However, she is playing an opponent in Jessica Pegula that has been operating at a high level over the last month on the Tour and it may just see the World Number 4 find the breaks of serve to push clear of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Arthur Fils @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-7, + 3.24 Units (19 Units Staked, + 17.05% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 26th March)

For the third day in a row, it looked like some of the fortune was going to be missing, which is always needed when making Picks from a long year on the Tour.

Gael Monfils looked to be completely comfortable in the final set decider as the underdog, but threw in one poor service game and ultimately that cost him in a match where he had won more points than Sebastian Korda.

Thankfully Novak Djokovic was a comfortable Fourth Round winner and then some of the luck changed with Aryna Sabalenka finding a way to recover in the second set and beat Qinwen Zheng in straight sets and cover the wide mark set.

It has pushed the Miami totals back in a positive direction, but Wednesday looks a difficult day and only one selection is made from the four Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played. Rain in Miami has forced one of the ATP Fourth Round matches to be played on the day too, which means having to play on back to back days for the winner of the Alexander Zverev-Arthur Fils match.

Four days remain at the tournament and the hope is that a strong finish can round out the first quarter of the season and attention can turn to the clay court season and the build into the French Open.

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Another Coach has lasted a short amount of time with Emma Raducanu and her team, but the British player has enjoyed a big week in Miami and will be chasing her biggest title since surprising the sport by winning the US Open.

These days Emma Raducanu is playing as the World Number 60, but she has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points over the next couple of months and could be in a much stronger position by the time Wimbledon rolls around in late June.

Before all of that, Emma Raducanu is hoping to keep the momentum going having secured four wins in Miami, which is more than her total number of wins in 2025 prior to the tournament. She has beaten two top 20 Ranked opponents, although Emma Raducanu may have benefited from the scheduling when crushing Amanda Anisimova in the Fourth Round.

This time both Raducanu and opponent Jessica Pegula have had a day of rest after their Fourth Round wins and the latter has been playing with more consistency over the course of the year.

Jessica Pegula has won a title on the hard courts, while the three wins in Miami have come in confident manner and that will give the World Number 4 a huge amount of belief in her tennis. She has been serving really well in Miami and that is going to be key against Emma Raducanu to try and put some pressure on the British player.

Both previous matches between the players have been competitive with both earning a win apiece.

Breaks of serve have to be expected considering the quality with which both Emma Radacanu and Jessica Pegula can return, but the slight edge has to be with the latter.

She has been serving with a bit more effectiveness not only in Miami, but on the hard courts in general in 2025 and it feels like Raducanu is playing at a level that may be more difficult for her to sustain. It also should be noted that Emma Raducanu was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round at this tournament and a similar level might not be good enough when facing the World Number 4 in her current form.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 11-7, + 2.39 Units (18 Units Staked, + 13.28% Yield)