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Saturday, 8 June 2024

French Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 9th June)

Iga Swiatek won a fourth Roland Garros title and there is every reason to believe she will end her career with the most on the WTA Tour side of the sport, although Rafael Nadal's overall record is expected to be safe.

She dominated after allowing Jasmine Paolini to find an early break, but the Men's Final is expected to be a lot more competitive on Sunday.


Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games: After making an out of court settlement regarding a trial for domestic abuse allegations, Alexander Zverev came from behind to cruise into his first French Open Final on Friday.

In seven previous Grand Slam Semi Finals, Alexander Zverev had been beaten six times so this is a big achievement for someone who might have felt the window had been closing when it comes to winning a maiden title at this level. He will need to erase memories of his only ever Grand Slam Final appearance when leading Dominic Thiem 2-0 in sets, but losing in the US Open Final in 2020.

Injury, off court issues and the German having some inconsistent performances at the business end of tournaments means it has been some wait for Alexander Zverev to return to a Slam Final. The performances here in Paris have been strong though and Zverev has also won the Rome Masters in the build up so he will not be lacking for confidence in this big match.

The opponent has won Grand Slam titles in New York City and London and Carlos Alcaraz can move into World Number 2 with a title win in Paris, meaning winning a Slam on all three surfaces used on the Tour. He will be opening Wimbledon as the defending Champion next month and this is an opportunity for the Spaniard to remind the Tour that he is still the man to beat of the next generation having had some of the shine taken away by Jannik Sinner.

The Italian was beaten in five sets in the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz will know that he will need to raise his level if he is going to see off Zverev in the Final.

Over the last twelve months, Carlos Alcaraz has gotten a little nearer to Alexander Zverev on the head to head with crushing wins in Madrid, at the US Open and in Indian Wells. However, during that run, Alexander Zverev holds wins over the Spaniard at the World Tour Finals and the Australian Open.

Two years ago Zverev beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Quarter Final at Roland Garros in what was an upset and there is a feeling that the underdog is a big price to win this title on Sunday.

Alexander Zverev has been serving well and that will put some pressure on Alcaraz, while the confidence will have been restored after two strong wins over Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud. The wins at Grand Slam level means he will not be intimidated by the obvious talented player standing on the other side of the net, and this could be a really good Final.

There is a temptation in backing Zverev, but this is a Final that should need at least four sets to decide it when all is said and done.

With that in mind, the total games line looks a tad shorter than it should be- the US Open win that Carlos Alcaraz produced over Alexander Zverev last year ended in straight sets, but the other two Grand Slam meetings have gone at least four sets and needed 43 and 39 games played respectively before a winner could be determined and so backing the total to be surpassed might be the play with less stress compared with looking for a live underdog to come through.

The experience edge is surprisingly with the younger player in this one and Carlos Alcaraz will feel he can make that pay, but the form is with Alexander Zverev and the fans should be the ones who benefit the most on the day.

MY PICK: Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 22-9, + 16.98 Units (61 Units Staked, + 27.84% Yield)

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