We are down to the final four players at Roland Garros in 2024 and there are three players vying for a first title in Paris.
Two are going for a first Grand Slam full stop, but it will be a tough ask in the Women's event with a dominant Champion in the way.
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: You can only be warmed by the infectious smile and the clear joy Jasmine Paolini feels when she is on a tennis court and a strong tournament for Italian tennis has been put together on both sides of the Tour.
On Monday we will have an Italian World Number 1 on the ATP Tour for the first time and Jasmine Paolini's run to the French Open Final has moved her into World Number 7, while an upset on Saturday will mean she will be the new World Number 5 when the Rankings are released following the tournament.
It is a remarkable rise for a 28 year old who had never been beyond the Second Round at a Grand Slam before reaching the Fourth Round at the Australian Open in January. She has won a big hard court title in Dubai, but Paolini had not really been in the best of form on the clay courts before arriving in Paris, despite most feeling this would be her best surface.
That form has counted for little as she has worked her way through the bottom half of the draw to reach the Final, including beating a couple of former Grand Slam Champions on the way. Jasmine Paolini dominated Mirra Andreeva in the Semi Final to earn her place in the showpiece event on Saturday, but another level is going to have to be found if she is going to prevent Iga Swiatek from joining legendary names like Monica Seles and Justin Henin in winning the French Open three times in a row.
It will actually be a fourth title in five years for Iga Swiatek and the World Number 1 has cruised through the draw after facing Match Points in the Second Round against Naomi Osaka. There is little doubt that Swiatek has been the best clay courter on the WTA side of the Tour for some time and she does go into this Final as a massive favourite.
Pressure and tension may be the biggest threat to Iga Swiatek who has produced really strong numbers throughout the tournament with the exception being the win over Osaka in the Second Round. The serve is really functioning well and the Pole has dropped this shot just twice in four matches after losing serve five times in the Second Round match, and that is going to be key for Iga Swiatek to try and keep the pressure on her inexperienced opponent.
You have to credit the grit and the defensive ability of Jasmine Paolini and that has helped her produce plenty of breaks of serve in this tournament, but this is an entirely different challenge, even compared with the multiple Breaks earned against big serving Elena Rybakina.
And the pressure that will be put on the Paolini serve cannot be underestimated with Iga Swiatek having broken every opponent at least four times, except for Naomi Osaka.
That exception was a real one and Iga Swiatek was very fortunate to get through that match against Osaka, but Paolini is not really going to be follow the blueprint left by the former World Number 1. Instead the match is more likely to be in line with others we have seen involving Iga Swiatek throughout this clay court season and the feeling is that she will have too much experience and quality for the Italian to deal with.
Last year's Final was a tighter affair than anticipated, but the previous two French Open titles won by Iga Swiatek have been in dominant victories and she would have covered this line in both.
Make no mistake it is a big line, but a 6-3, 6-2 kind of win has to be expected and the current World Number 1 can underline her status as the dominant clay courter on the WTA Tour.
MY PICK: Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 William Hill (2 Units)
French Open Update: 21-9, + 15.66 Units (59 Units Staked, + 26.54% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment