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Tuesday, 4 June 2024

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th June)

It looked like a serious injury, but Novak Djokovic ended his Fourth Round match in such strong fashion that the feeling was that a day of rest would be enough for him to take to the court.

Unfortunately the MRI scan on Tuesday showed more knee damage than hoped, and Djokovic has to withdraw from the tournament.

The longer-term concern is that the 24 time Grand Slam Champion will be unable to compete at Wimbledon and then potentially the Olympic Games and US Open. More on that will likely come out in the days and weeks ahead, but the short turnaround into the third Grand Slam of the season makes it unlikely that Novak Djokovic can add to the seven titles he has won in SW19.

A new World Number 1 will be made official on Monday when Jannik Sinner moves into that slot, and deservedly so, but before that a new French Open Champion will be crowned on Sunday. Every player left in the draw will feel confident about winning the title and you can make a case for all five left in the draw, although Casper Ruud might benefit from the Novak Djokovic walkover in their Quarter Final.


Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The World Ranking points might suggest the top three are clear of the rest on the WTA Tour, but there is little doubt that the 2022 Wimbledon Champion Elena Rybakina is right up alongside Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka.

An Australian Open Runner Up and a Wimbledon Quarter Final were the highlights of her 2023 Grand Slam season, but a very disappointing Second Round defeat in Melbourne earlier this year has kept Rybakina from really closing on the top three players in terms of Ranking points.

Illness meant she could not defend the title she won in Rome last year, meaning more significant points came off the record, but Elena Rybakina has powered through the draw in Paris. She has matched her Quarter Final appearance in 2021, but Rybakina has to be feeling pretty confident about her all around tennis to believe she can set a new career mark for this tournament.

Overlooking Jasmine Paolini would be a mistake and a win for the Italian would mean she would enter the top ten in the World Rankings for the first time. While the path through to the Quarter Final has been relatively serene for Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini has come through a couple of three setters, although the sets won were very one-sided in her favour.

Earlier this year she reached the second week at a Grand Slam for the first time and Paolini has made it through to her first Quarter Final at this level in Paris on her favoured clay courts.

The build up to the French Open was perhaps a little disappointing as far as Jasmine Paolini is concerned, but her performances here will give her confidence. She also pushed Elena Rybakina in a three set loss in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court, but it was the higher Seed who created double the Break Point chances and that is likely to be the case here.

Defence is key for Paolini as she will look to frustrate Elena Rybakina and ask her to play one more shot wherever she can, but the serve looks to be a huge weapon as far as the World Number 4 goes.

Ruling out Jasmine Paolini completely would be a mistake and she can make this competitive, but Elena Rybakina has powered her way through big moments throughout this week. She looks to be playing with a real confidence and the bigger hitting could shine through even when the weather is perhaps taking a slight dip again.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: There is little doubting the sense of expectation around Mirra Andreeva and her potential as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion in the making.

She has only just turned 17 years old at the end of April and continues to show maturity beyond her years in handling the pressures that are around her.

In the Fourth Round, Mirra Andreeva faced a home player who had the crowd firmly behind her, but it did not rattle the youngster at all and she came through with a strong win. The victory marked her first Grand Slam Quarter Final appearance and plenty more are expected from a player who will be allowed to play more tournamnts and really grow onto the Tour.

Regardless of the result on Wednesday, Mirra Andreeva will be reaching a new career high World Ranking as she enters the top 30 for the first time. An upset would really see her making moves towards the top 20 and that will be motivation for Andreeva, although she will also understand there is a huge challenge in front o her.

Aryna Sabalenka is the current World Number 2 and she will not be able to improve on that position even if she was to win the title in Paris next Saturday. However, it would mean Sabalenka holds the first two Grand Slams of the 2024 season and not many would consider anyone else to be the top player in the world.

This is the seventh Grand Slam in a row that Aryna Sabalenka has made it through to the Quarter Final since her Third Round loss in Paris in 2022, and she made it into the Semi Final on each of the last six occasions. Two Slams have been won in that time, and she has been a beaten Finalist, while Sabalenka has become a very consistent force on the Tour.

She reached the Final in both Madrid and Rome, although was beaten both times by Iga Swiatek, and the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka will overpower Mirra Andreeva.

That has been the case in their two previous meetings, both in Madrid, in 2023 and this year. In both matches Mirra Andreeva has picked up just four games and the youngster has found very little joy at winning points against the big Sabalenka serve.

In Paris the conditions may suit Mirra Andreeva a bit more than Madrid, especially with the weather not as hot as it could be. However, it will still take a big shift in the match up for this to be much more competitive and right now Aryna Sabalenka might just be too powerful for a younger player still growing into her body.

Aryna Sabalenka has simply not been troubled in Paris and seems to be enjoying her time here and that makes her dangerous- she can come through this one with another reminder to Mirra Andreeva that there is still considerable work to be done before she really begins to mix it with the elite of the WTA Tour.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: Get things right, playing back to back five setters in a Grand Slam is extremely challenging for any player and especially when you think there are still three more matches to win if a title is to be secured.

That is the challenge for Alexander Zverev who is playing under the cloud of a legal case being heard in Germany regarding domestic abuse allegations.

While the ATP Tour and the French Open are trying to ignore those off the court issues, Alexander Zverev himself has also managed to bring in enough PR support to ensure that he is not being heckled by the crowd.

It has been a tough tournament from the outset with Zverev having to beat Rafael Nadal in the Spaniard's potentially last French Open appearance. That was in the First Round, while the last two wins over Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune have both needed some late drama for the World Number 4 to progress.

He has long had a liking for the clay courts and this Quarter Final may feel a step down in level of opponent compared with the Fourth Round when facing Holger Rune.

Alex De Minaur may have something to say about that after an impressive win over Daniil Medvedev, but the run to the Quarter Final has been surprising to say the least. He had never been beyond the Second Round at Roland Garros before, while the Australian has proven to be much happier on the faster surfaces rather than the red dirt.

An inconsistent build up to the second Grand Slam of the season would have underlined the feeling that Alex De Minaur would have been a vulnerable higher Seed, but all credit has to be given to him. He has dropped the first set in each of his last two wins, but this will feel a much tougher match up for him as long as Alexander Zverev is able to recover from a late night finish.

The German does have a solid match up record against Alex De Minaur and their one sole clay court match in Rome in 2022 ended up in a relatively comfortable win for Alexander Zverev. The serve is really working well for the higher Seed in this Quarter Final and that is likely going to be key for Zverev in his bid to reach another Semi Final in Paris.

Nothing ever comes easily against a tenacious competitor like De Minaur, but the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas have had strong wins over the Aussie on this surface over the last couple of months. Alexander Zverev is certainly playing up to that kind of level and overcoming any lingering fatigue can be helped with a strong Quarter Final win.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 18-5, + 18.02 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39.17% Yield)

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