NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

 

NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

The NBA PlayOffs have perhaps not been filled with the drama some would have hoped for, but we are moving into a position to have some very strong looking Conference Semi Final Series beginning next week.

That does not mean there is still not some work to do for the leading teams to move through to the next Round.

At the time of writing, only the Minnesota Timberwolves have swept their way through the First Round after humiliating the Phoenix Suns, although the Oklahoma City Thunder play on Monday bidding to become the second team through without dropping a game.

Six of the eight Series that have begun will need at least a Game 5, but there are a couple of teams heading back home to complete wins, while another is looking to secure the upset that many tipped in the First Round.

Will we get to a Game 7 in any of the First Round Series? Two are tied at 2-2 through four games, and so the feeling is that the Conference Semi Final Round could potentially begin this weekend instead of any Game 7's being scheduled to be played.

It has been an up and down time for the NBA PlayOff Picks and the key going forward is trying to find the consistency to at least push the positive surge forward.

In the main there has not been too many really down days, but that does not mean there is not room for improvement if trying to get anywhere near the number produced at the end of the 2023 post-season.

Tuesday 30th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been frustration throughout this First Round Series for the Philadelphia 76ers- in Game 2 they feel the officiating cost them the chance to leave Madison Square Garden with a split of the first two games, while Joel Embiid voiced his disappointment that there has been so much vocal support for the New York Knicks in both Philadelphia road games.

He did not say much about that after the Game 3 win, but on Sunday night the Knicks held off the Philadelphia 76ers for an important victory that moves them 3-1 clear in the First Round Series.

The first chance of eliminating the 76ers comes on Tuesday when the Series shifts back to New York City and the Knicks have to be confident having won a game where Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo combined for 12 points and had a 3/18 shooting day from the field.

That isn't to say they did not impact Game 4 in a different way, but it also meant the New York Knicks had to lean on Jalen Brunson for the win. After struggling in the first couple of games, Brunson has found his touch in the post-season and set a new franchise record of 47 points while leading the Knicks to the road win.

Momentum is certainly with the Knicks now.

Outside of Game 3, the Knicks have really ramped up their Defensive strengths and they have been able to contain the Philadelphia threats. Shutting down Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey completely always looks to be unlikely, but they are harassing the two best 76ers and ultimately the role players have not been able to make an impact except for in the one game the 76ers won.

The hope for Philadelphia is that they can make the adjustments to get those role players going, but it has long been a much tougher test for those players when having to perform on the road. They almost won Game 2 inside The Garden so there is still hope for the 76ers to at least push this Series into Game 6 back at home, but the momentum has certainly swung very much behind New York.

The Knicks did not shoot the three ball very well in Game 4, which makes the win that much more impressive, but they should get back on the horse on Tuesday. Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5 of the First Round in the PlayOffs in recent years and the Knicks may just do enough to secure passage into the Conference Semi Finals without having to travel again.

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: The Fourth Quarter of Game 2 saw the Orlando Magic rally, but ultimately come up short against the Cleveland Cavaliers and they returned to Florida 2-0 down in this First Round Series.

However, it seemed like the Magic had found something that could give the Cavaliers problems in that Fourth Quarter and back to back home blowouts have seen them run with the momentum that may have been gained, even when coming up short.

All four games in this Series have been won by the home team and backing the home favourite has led to a 4-0 record against the spread.

Things may be about to change.

While the Magic have found the adjustmens and really ramped up their shooting, the steady Cleveland Cavaliers have not really found Offensive answers. Winning the first two games behind strong Defensive performances is one thing as the Cavaliers held the Magic to an average of 84.5 points per game, but Orlando's adjustments have seen them average 116.5 points per game in winning two in a row at home.

A young, inexperienced team have to show they can take those adjustments on the road, and that is where that Fourth Quarter rally in Game 2 may just give Orlando the confidence to win a game in this Arena. They did do that once in the regular season, although this will depend on the bench players showing they can compete in a very different kind of PlayOff intensity and atmosphere that comes with playing on the road.

The Cavaliers have yet to find their own Offensive identity and they may be relying on the Magic to miss more than actually sorting out their own issues as we move into Game 5 of the Series. Cleveland have yet to score more than 97 points in any game in this Series, although they will at least point to their better Offensive performances being at home having failed to crack 89 points in either road loss.

Being at home will help, and home teams have been strong in Game 5 in First Round Series outside of the NBA Bubble of 2020. However, those teams are only 20-20 against the spread, while being 31-9 straight up, and the Orlando Magic look to have rolled some serious momentum behind them.

This looks enough points to expect the road team to keep this one within the number set, especially as Orlando have every chance to winning this one outright.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: The First Round exit to the Miami Heat twelve months ago meant there were some serious discussions in Milwaukee as to how the Bucks can get closer to winning another NBA Championship.

Pairing Giannis Antetokounmpo with Damian Lillard looked a very good plan and am mid-season decision to fire Adrian Griffin and replace him with Doc Rivers suggested they were all in to try and win the NBA Championship for the second time in four years.

Unfortunately the injury bug has bitten the Bucks at the wrong time with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard out of Game 4 as they ran out of steam in the defeat to the Indiana Pacers. A tough looking match up has now left Milwaukee with no room for error with the team trialing 3-1 and with both star players still doubtful to return.

To make matters worse, the Bucks have a banged up Khris Middleton trying to hold things down, while Bobby Portis was ejected during Game 4 to really make things very difficult for the road team. It means the Pacers have won three in a row and have all the momentum they need to try and secure a gentlemen's sweep of this First Round Series.

Quite a lot of factors have fallen in favour of the Indiana Pacers, but there is still room for improvement from the team leading 3-1. In two of the four games played in this Series, the Pacers have lit things up from the three point range, but they are still searching for the consistency that may give them a chance to progress further than the next Round.

Sharing the ball around and finding the hot hand worked in Game 4 as a short-handed Milwaukee team just could not keep up and especially not after Middleton was banged up again and Portis was thrown out of the game.

At home you would expect the Bucks to show their Championship resiliency, but something similar may happen here.

You would make a hard case for the Milwaukee Bucks having enough bodies to keep this one competitive if they fall into a early hole and the Pacers might just be ready to move through to the Conference Semi Finals, which may begin as soon as Saturday if Indiana can win one of the next two games.

Wednesday 1st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The three point onslaught in Game 2 saw the Miami Heat upset the odds and earn a split of the first two games of this First Round Series, but most would have expected that to be an outlier in the overall scheme of this PlayOff clash.

And ultimately those opinions look to be proven to be right.

The Boston Celtics might have had one or two mental demons to exorcise after losing Game 2, but this is a team that has a clear focus on trying to win the NBA Championship. That means needing to respond like Champions and the Celtics have done just that by blowing out the Heat in back to back road games and now moving to the brink of earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

At this stage it would be a real upset if the Celtics are not able to complete the job and most likely as soon as Game 5 is played on Wednesday.

It has not been a perfect Series by any stretch of the imagination and Kristaps Porzingis looks to have picked up an injury that may keep him out until the Eastern Conference Finals at best. The Celtics are unlikely to risk him considering the important role he has been playing with the team, but they will be confident that they can make relatively comfortable passage even if they have to give Porzingis time to recover.

There is also still more to come from the top names on the roster, but the Boston Celtics have to be pleased with the dominance they are showing in this Series even without Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown needing to take control of games. The roster has been built to have threats all over the court and that is what we have seen, coupled with Defensive intensity that has suffocated a Miami Heat team badly missing Jimmy Butler.

The only real hope the Heat had was to nail their three pointers at the clip they managed in Game 2, but that has always felt unsustainable for four out of seven games to win this Series. They managed 23 three pointers in that Game 2 win, but just 18 combined in the last two games at home and neither has been as close as the 20 point and 14 point margins of victory would suggest.

Covering this spread will not be easy as the Celtics have clearly taken their foot off the gas in the last couple of wins, and did the same in Game 1, but they have shown they can build massive leads before they do that.

The chance to eliminate the team that upset their NBA Championship aspirations last year will have given Boston the motivation to ensure they have gotten into position to have those big leads, and that may be the case again in Game 5.

The line has moved up a couple more points with the Series heading back to Boston, but it is shorter than the one set for Game 1 and Game 2 with the Porzingis injury perhaps being a contributory factor. The Celtics have covered double digits spreads in all three of their wins in this First Round Series and they can do that again on Wednesday as they move into the Conference Semi Finals, which could begin this weekend.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Pick: The end of the First Quarter in Game 4 of this First Round Series saw the big road underdog finish with a 23 point lead over the Dallas Mavericks as they looked to square up the Series. There will have been some panic on the Los Angeles Clippers sideline when the Mavericks fought all the way back to level the game, but somehow the veteran team held off the rally and return home at 2-2.

It was a remarkable game and one that will have hurt the Dallas Mavericks.

Perhaps they were overconfident having won two in a row in the Series and with Kawhi Leonard sitting out, but the deep hole of the end of the First Quarter proved to be costly for the Mavericks who now have to win at least once more in Los Angeles if they are going to progress to the Conference Semi Finals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be rested by the time that Series comes around, and so it is important for the Mavericks to exert some control. The last three Quarters of Game 4 will have given them some momentum and the Mavericks have been favoured in all four games in this First Round Series, which makes the fact it is tied at 2-2 all the more disappointing as far as they are concerned.

For the Clippers, replicating the hugely efficient three point shooting day will be the challenge as they look for a couple more upsets to keep the NBA Championship hopes alive for a veteran roster. Failing to win a Championship will likely mean big chances are coming this off-season, although a deep PlayOff run may persuade the higher ups to give the likes of Leonard, Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook one more run.

In the previous two games, both losses, the Clippers had struggled to have an impact from the three point shooting range and that has given the Dallas Mavericks an edge. Defensively the Clippers are giving themselves a chance, and that is going to be key for the team again if they are going to find a way through to the Conference Semi Finals.

It has been a competitive Series, but the response of the Mavericks in the last three Quarters of Game 4 should see them come out much faster than they did in that one. They cannot afford to be chasing again, but showed they do have an ability to drag back the Clippers if needed.

This time the Mavericks may be in the game at the end of the Third Quarter and that could lead to them finding the big plays late on to secure a win and cover.

Thursday 2nd May

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: The First Quarter ended with an 8 point deficit, but the Milwaukee Bucks were not prepared for the season to end and dominated the middle two Quarters to pummel the Indiana Pacers and force Game 6 on the road.

Keeping the positives going will not be easy without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Milwaukee Bucks have found something in the last three games.

Bobby Portis had a very big Game 6 having apologised to his team mates for being ejected in Game 5 and allowing the team to be overwhelmed. Without the top two names on the roster, Portis and Khris Middleton have become major players for the Milwaukee Bucks and the former showed in his 29 point effort in Game 6 just how important he is going to be for the remainder of this Series and potentially beyond.

Finding the same quality of shots on the road will be a challenge for the Milwaukee Bucks, but they will feel they are still being very competitive against the Indiana Pacers, who are not as experienced when it comes to winning PlayOff Series.

The depth of the Pacers makes them dangerous, and they should be all the better for being back at home despite absorbing a big haymaker in Game 5. They shot the ball incredibly well in Game 4 at home, but the three point shooting has not been as strong for the Pacers in the games around that one and it should give the Bucks an opportunity if they can keep all of their players involved in the game.

Winning here will be very tough, but road teams are 29-10 against the spread in Game 6's of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent years and the Milwaukee Bucks look to be receiving enough points where they can be backed to keep this one competitive.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: We have already seen the Philadelphia 76ers recover from an incredible collapse in a PlayOff game once in this First Round Series, but it is going to be the New York Knicks looking to do the same when Game 6 is played on Thursday.

The Series looked to be coming to an end with the Knicks holding a two possession lead and with thirty seconds remaining, but things turned around just as unexpectedly as the Game 2 that New York won. This time they were forced into Overtime before coming up short as they looked to close out a Series at Madison Square Garden for the first time in almost thirty years.

Bouncing back will not be easy and the Knicks have struggled to find their shooting rhythm outside of Jalen Brunson, who is trying to carry this team into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals again.

Earlier in the Series others were stepping up for New York, but there has be a concern with the level of performance in the last couple of games. Josh Hart has been having his struggles, while the depth of rotation is not as great as the New York Knicks fans would have hoped.

Injuries have played a part and the Knicks have to find a way to lift themselves having more than a single foot moving into the Conference Semi Finals before capitulating late on in Game 5.

For Philadelphia, the feeling is that they have deserved to at least have one more game at home even if it came about in unexpected fashion. They have been very much relying on Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to lead the way and have some of the other players on the roster chip in, something that should be easier to do at home.

It will be the game plan going forward for the 76ers, but the feeling is that the Defensive schemes are getting on top of the opponent.

This has been key in Game 6's in recent years in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and that has also been important for road teams in their bid to cover. Those on the road looking to close out a Series have also been very successful against the spread and the New York Knicks can be backed to bounce back from the heartbreak of Game 5.

Friday 3rd May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Game 6 Pick: A strong start was needed and made by the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 having dropped back to back games in this First Round Series. Both losses had been on the road and they would have been extremely concerned about potentially losing in the First Round of the PlayOffs for a second season in a row if the Orlando Magic had stolen home court advantage away.

It all came down to the final ninety seconds of Game 5 with the Cleveland Cavaliers holding on to a narrow lead and they did just enough to secure a single point win, one point that means leading 3-2 and with the chance of earning a spot in the Conference Semi Finals against the Boston Celtics as soon as Friday evening.

Doing so without Jarrett Allen made the win that much more special for the Cleveland Cavaliers and gives them options- they can either choose to begin Allen on the bench for Game 6 to make sure he is fully ready to go in case of any Game 7, or bring him back into the fold as long as he can deal with the bruised hip that kept him on the sidelines a couple of days ago.

This is a game time decision for the Cavaliers, but the 3-2 lead has allowed them to think ahead as to how they can approach the end of this First Round Series. They did crack 100 points for the first time in this Series, but the Cavaliers have to show they can compete much better on the road than they have in Game 3 and Game 4 when suffering blowouts.

The Magic will be disappointed with the defeat in Game 5, but they have been much more confident at home and the shooting efficiency backs up that belief. After nailing down 12 three pointers in Game 3 and 13 in Game 4, the Magic only managed 9 in the last game and that effectively proved to be pivotal to the narrow margin in which they were beaten.

Players have been much more comfortable in home settings and Orlando have been stronger on both ends of the court in front of their own fans. Hosts of Game 6 have not had a very successful time of late and road teams closing out a Series in Game 6 have tended to be strong covering options, but the Magic have to have more confidence after the way in which they have both games at home in this Series.

Game 5 proved to be the first one in which the host has failed to cover in this First Round Series and the Orlando Magic can ensure that is the exception as they push for a win and cover that forces a Game 7 decider on Sunday.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: It really did feel like the Dallas Mavericks may still have had the momentum, despite dropping Game 4 at home, and that was largely down to how they performed for all but a single Quarter in that one.

Game 5 had a similar feel with the First Quarter being closely contested against the Los Angeles Clippers, but this time the Mavericks were not 23 points behind and instead a single point ahead. From that moment it was all Dallas and the blowout win on the road has given them a 3-2 lead in the Series and with an opportunity to close out and progress into the Conference Semi Finals as soon as Friday evening when the Series shifts back to Texas.

Luka Doncic played through illness and an injury, one that he felt would have meant rest in the regular season. However, this is the PlayOffs and it is all pumps to the deck as Dallas look to fight past an injury hit Los Angeles Clippers who have a veteran core that may be wearing down.

They did hang onto the win in Game 4 even when the huge lead evaporated, but that would have meant a considerable effort from the Clippers and it perhaps hurt them last time out. There is little time for rest between Game 5 and Game 6, but having the likes of Paul George and James Harden playing fewer than 34 minutes each will at least help a little bit as the Clippers hope to bring this Series back to Los Angeles for a PlayOff decider.

Kawhi Leonard missed out again and has to be considered doubtful for Game 6- even if he finds a way to suit up, Leonard is going to be limited and all of the chips are now in favour of the Dallas Mavericks having won three of the last four games.

Most have been close so this spread seems a touch high, especially if the travelling back and forth from Los Angeles means a little more suffering for Luka Doncic. He showed he can battle through and be very effective and was also given considerable rest in the Fourth Quarter of Game 6 to ensure he is going to be ready and that should mean Dallas are in a position to move into the Conference Semi Finals.

Covering might be more challenging, but it should be noted that the last two Dallas wins in this Series have been by double digits so the play is to back them to find some big buckets in the Fourth Quarter to pull clear of this line set.

Sunday 5th May

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: Out of all of the First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, there was a feeling of inevitability about seeing a Game 7 between the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Seven of the eight Conference Semi Finalists have moved through to the next Round without the need for a decider, but this one is going to have that Game 7 on Sunday after the Orlando Magic made it six straight wins for the home team on Friday evening.

They covered the mark after a meaningless three pointer was missed at the buzzer by the Cleveland Cavaliers, but it was another close game following the one point win for the Cavaliers in Game 5. Donovan Mitchell was huge for Cleveland, despite not looking at 100%, but he was not supported enough and the Cavaliers might be a touch concerned about their top player and what he has left in the tank.

Being back at home will help considering the impact of the role players at home compared with on the road.

The same can be said for the Magic, albeit from a negative stance, with the team not nearly as effective in their three road games as they have been at home. Momentum is with Orlando having won three of the last four games and only just coming up short in Game 5 on the road, but this is a young core of players lacking post-season experience and that could be telling.

Jarrett Allen has missed the last two games and his return will be very important for Cleveland as they look to fend off the opponent they 'wanted' to face in the First Round having allowed themselves to tank on the final day of the regular season. The Number 1 Seeded Boston Celtics will be rested and waiting in the wings for whoever comes through, but there feels like a bit more pressure on the Cleveland shoulders with another First Round exit likely leading to significant off-season decisions to be made.

In recent times, the favourite has tended to prevail in these First Round Game 7s, although those teams are only 6-10-1 against the spread when going 13-4 straight up.

Cleveland are unsurprisingly the favourites, but the line has dipped a couple of points from where it stood in Game 1 and Game 2 and that underlines the feeling that the Orlando Magic have been the better team.

Backing the Magic to finally get over the line on the road looks to be the right decision as the First Round concludes on Sunday.

SIDE NOTE- the Conference Semi Finals begin on Saturday, the day before the First Round is concluded. The first selection and thread for Game 1-4 can be read here.

MY PICKS: 30/04 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Indiana Pacers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

01/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

01/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 Milwaukee Bucks + 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Dallas Mavericks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

05/05 Orlando Magic + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia (Saturday 20th April)

For most fight fans, the 5 vs 5 undercard to the Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol main event featuring fighters from Queensberry promotions facing off against Matchroom would not have been a surprise.

All five fights had long been reported to be taking place, despite Eddie Hearn's insistence he had only made one of his selections on the morning of the press conference, but even then it was something special to see the ten boxers on the stage together.

A very good main event is now being complemented by a very strong undercard, arguably the best fight card that Saudi Arabia have been able to put together as they continue to push their investment into the world of boxing.

I am still convinced that the overall game plan is to make their new 'Undisputed Champion' belt the main attraction in the sport, meaning having control of the sport.

Unlike golf or tennis, sports that have to be played in different venues throughout the course of the year, controlling a sport like boxing looks to be much more manageable, especially if they can push their own belt to being the ultimate one to hold. That would mean picking the fights to be staged in their own country and promoting Riyadh Season all year around, pretty much as they are already beginning to do.

There are obvious concerns, but for fight fans, this is an exciting time knowing that the very biggest fights are going to be able to be put together.

By the end of June 1st, we will have Undisputed Champions in the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Divisions and it would not be a surprise if further Divisions are added to that over the course of the year. And much should concern the four governing bodies if those Undisputed Champions are willing to drop the other belts and focus on defending the one they will be given by the Saudi Arabians instead.

It is something to ponder, but for now the excitement has to be building towards a really strong run of fights right through to the end of June.

That run begins this weekend in New York City when two of the 'new four kings' face off, although the build has been strange to say the least.

Last weekend we added another positive unit to the Boxing totals for the 2024 season, but more is still expected after going 1-2 overall with the selections after an underwhelming main event showing in Corpus Christi.

Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia (Saturday 20th April 2024)

Add in Teofimo Lopez and Tank Davis to the mix and there was a real hope that Boxing would have another 'Four Kings' era with Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia completing the numbers.

We have yet to really have those cross-bouts that would spark that kind of interest, although this is Ryan Garcia's second shot at taking down one of his peers having come up very short against Davis already.

It is hard to know what to expect from Garcia after a roller-coaster of a build up to this fight- at times he has looked mentally checked out and some of the behaviours, both in public and on social media, have fans wondering if Ryan Garcia SHOULD be fighting.

There is a real feeling that Garcia may have something of a mental breakdown in this one, while his training has been erratic and recent reports suggest he may struggle to make weight. After losing to Tank Davis, this feels like a significant moment for Garcia and he is not likely to be forgiven by the Boxing fans if he underperforms in this one.

However, this is of little concern to Devin Haney who has moved up from the Lightweight Division and dominated Regis Prograis in the Light-Welterweight ranks to pick up a World Title. The Division is a strong one, without many stand out names outside of Teofimo Lopez, and that remains the Unification that Haney wants most.

We still don't really know what kind of level Devin Haney possesses and those bouts against the likes of Lopez and Davis are the ones that many hope he pursues. Two consecutive wins over George Kambosos Jr before a controversial win over Vasyl Lomachenko in the Lightweight Division is a decent enough run, but Haney was at his absolute best when beating Prograis and this weight class may suit him much more than 135.

No one will dispute the clear talent that Devin Haney possesses- the fundamentals are very strong, although there are bigger tests ahead if he is going to try and become Undisputed in the Light-Welterweight Division and then potentially move into the Welterweight ranks.

Beating Ryan Garcia is one thing, but Devin Haney will be looking to make a real statement of his intent in this one.

A long standing rivalry is motivation enough, but Haney has been looking irritated by the Garcia behaviours in this build up and The Dream may look to settle down on his punches once he feels he has broken the spirit of his opponent.

Devin Haney is not the biggest of punchers, but Ryan Garcia has struggled to put together the kind of improvements his fans would have hoped. There is also this feeling that Garcia is not nearly as focused as he should be, and that remains true even if he has been playing up a bit more to put Devin Haney into a comfort zone.

Replicating the kind of performance he produced against Luke Campbell will give Ryan Garcia more of a chance, but something seems off about him. Missing weight underlines the point, especially as badly as he has missed it, and I remain unsure as to whether he should be in the ring at all this weekend.

It has been almost five years since Devin Haney last finished a fight inside the distance, but he could turn the screw late on in this one and force his old rival to just have to take that backward step. A late referee intervention or a corner pullout cannot be dismissed and Devin Haney following Gervonta Davis' path in stopping Ryan Garcia in the second half of the contest is the pick.

Making weight has been a problem, as suggested, and Ryan Garcia has perhaps been doing things he should not have been doing during a training camp, as has also been suggested, so there is every chance Devin Haney can put a combination or two together late on to secure a decisive finish. He has not really shown that ability in recent big bouts, but Ryan Garcia may just lose that focus which allows Haney to produce the kind of statement he will be targeting before once again calling out Teofimo Lopez for a blockbuster bout.

This is a PPV offering this weekend, but the undercard is perhaps a little underwhelming.

Arnold Barboza Jr was placed in the chief support as a backup in case either of the main event fighters were forced to pull out late on and he is a strong favourite to maintain his unbeaten run.

He is likely going to earn a Stoppage against Sean McComb, even though the latter is on a seven bout winning run.

Those have largely been at a lower level than the one he faces on Saturday and Gavin Gwynne was able to Stop McComb, but Barboza Jr has not exactly been working limited hours in recent outings. Five straight Decisions had to be earned before a late Stoppage last time out, but he is expected to close the show somewhere in the mid-Rounds before calling out some of the Champions in the Light-Welterweight Division.

Bektemir Melikuziev should also earn a Stoppage, even against an unbeaten opponent as he pushes for bigger fights.

Not many have been able to stand up to the power of Bully, and Pierre Hubert Dibombe has been operating at levels below.

Canelo Alvarez is unlikely to be looking at the Bully as a potential opponent, but Bektemir Melikuziev is rapidly moving up the WBA Rankings and a potential bout with David Morrell may eventually be the target.

He should overpower Dibombe very early in this one.

In the United Kingdom, potential new superstar Sam Noakes will be looking to take the next step in his career by getting the better of veteran Yvan Mendy.

Winning is not really being questioned, but Noakes will have to show a bit more against an experienced opponent and he is unlikely to continue his run of early Stoppages.

The Frenchman is 38 years old now, but he has yet to be Stopped and has caused some problems for those looking to breakthrough into the top tier of the Division.

Holding the European Lightweight Title would be another step for Sam Noakes and the WBO and IBF World Titles remain vacant in the Division. The top contender for the WBO World Title is Denys Berinchyk, who beat Mendy a couple of fights ago, but who was unsuccessful in becoming the first boxer to stop the veteran.

Sam Noakes will certainly be calling for huge opportunities if he can become the first person to Stop Yvan Mendy, but this is expected to be a tough test for someone who has overpowered previous opponents. Getting the Rounds under the belt cannot be seen as a bad thing and Noakes may need to head to the cards for the first time as a professional.

MY PICKS: Devin Haney to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.80 Coral (1 Unit)

Bektemir Melikuziev to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 17-25, + 13.92 Units (59 Units Staked, + 23.59% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 1-4 (April 20-29)

NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks, Games 1-4 (April 20-29)

It is quite hard to believe that we are already into the NBA PlayOffs with the Finals from last June not feeling nearly as distant in the past as they are.

The Denver Nuggets made their favouritism count as they won it all, but they will try and go again, this time as the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference.

Instead it may be the Boston Celtics who are going to be the team to beat, even with a potentially awkward First Round Series coming up. That will be determined on Friday evening when the final Play In Tournament games are completed, while there are going to be some new faces in the post-season compared with last season.

Another year of experience may be needed by some, including the top Seed in the Western Conference the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the window is officially closing on other contenders all around.

And of course, it would not feel like much of a post-season if MY New York Knicks were not involved.

A strong end to the season has seen the Knicks rock up with the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference and they will have every chance of producing a strong run if they can overcome a tough First Round opponent. Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in twenty-five years is still feeling like a long shot, but you just never know what is going to happen in the post-season and any injury issues that may open the door for a first Championship since 1973.

Looking back at last year's PlayOff numbers, the NBA Picks returned a + 10.49 Units return with a 14.98% Yield.

Three of the four Rounds produced a winning return, including the NBA Finals, but it was the First Round when the foundation was laid with a really strong return.

Matching that will not be easy, but it does give us something to aim for.

Much like last season's PlayOffs, I am splitting the First Round, and subsequent Rounds through to the NBA Finals, into Games 1-4 and 5-7 threads just to limit the length of them.

The First Round opening thread will tend to the be the longest with eight Series in play, but these are also most likely to be concluded in four or five games.

A 22-9 record in the First Round of the PlayOffs produced the strong foundation for a successful run in the post-season, but this is not a case of all or nothing over the next couple of weeks. Instead the focus has to be trying to put the winning runs together to ensure a positive return, and not allowing any dips to make us lose focus on the bigger picture.

Four of the First Round Series will be beginning on Saturday and the remaining four on Sunday and the selections from Games 1-4 will be added below.

Good luck and let's hope for some really good Basketball... And a New York Knicks win.

Saturday 20th April

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: Motivation is going to be incredibly easy to find for the Orlando Magic in this First Round PlayOff Series with suggestions that the Cleveland Cavaliers 'tanked' their final regular season game when hosting the Charlotte Hornets. Resting starters throughout the entirety of the Fourth Quarter as they game got away from the Cavaliers has been the story ahead of their return to the post-season and the suggestion they 'targeted' this First Round Series has to be pinned to the wall of the Orlando locker room.

The Magic have not made the PlayOffs since 2020 so there is a suggestion that it was the right plan from the Cavaliers, but a win would have seen them climb into either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed and that would mean avoiding a likely Conference Semi Final showdown with the Boston Celtics.

Ultimately the Cavaliers have 'chosen' to face the Orlando Magic against whom they split the four regular season meetings, including both teams winning on the floor of the other once.

Health is a factor and the Cavaliers have been beset by injuries throughout the course of the season so it is key that their main starters are fit and ready to go. The Cavaliers will go as far as the likes of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will take them, although it certainly feels like there is a ceiling on their ambitions in this post-season.

Pressure will be on them to at least progress further than last year when upset by the New York Knicks in a home First Round Series, but the inexperience of the Orlando Magic is expected to be factor too.

It also should be noted that the Magic have been a lot stronger on their own court than they been on the road and it will be a real challenge for them to head back to Orlando with a split of the first two games in this First Round Series. The edge looks to be with the Cleveland Cavaliers thanks to their impressive Defensive work and the talented players mentioned can get hot Offensively to help guide Cleveland to the victory.

A lot of eyes will on this Series to see if the Cavaliers can make use of the Series they picked and there will be plenty ready to mock them if they do not.

Smaller home favourites have not had a very strong covering record in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs First Round Series, but in general the home teams have been piling up the wins outright.

The line is a tough one to read, but the Cleveland Cavaliers might just have enough in the tank to just take advantage of an opponent that has not played enough PlayOff games in recent years to know exactly what to expect. It could free up some of the younger players in the Orlando locker room, but the feeling is that the Cavaliers are healthy at a good time and they can open this Series with an important victory.

Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Pick: This has the makings of a really good First Round Series and the Number 6 Seeded Phoenix Suns will believe they match up really well with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

You cannot blame the Suns in feeling that way having won all three regular season meetings this season to extend their run to five wins in a row over the Timberwolves. Games were not really that competitive either, while Phoenix secured their Number 6 Seed by beating the Minnesota Timberwolves in this Arena on the final day of the regular season, which also dropped the Timberwolves into this First Round Series.

Both of these teams will feel they can have a significant impact in the post-season, even being in the same half of the Western Conference bracket as the defending Champions Denver Nuggets who are the Number 2 Seed.

However, it would be foolish for the Suns and the Timberwolves to overlook the team right in front of them and Phoenix have an ambition of returning home next week knowing they have at least taken home court away from Minnesota.

Game 1 might be a really good opportunity for Phoenix to do that with the Timberwolves still likely figuring out how a returning Karl Anthony Towns can impact the team. There is no doubting the talent of KAT, but the Timberwolves had found a rhythm without him and having to reintegrate him may just knock the team a little out of sync.

That is not idea before facing an opponent that has gotten the better of you throughout the regular season and one loaded with the experiences and talent that the Suns clearly have.

Last season it was the Nuggets who ended both the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves PlayOff ambitions, but the Suns have felt close to a breakthrough since reaching the NBA Finals in 2021. The health of the rotation looks good and the window is beginning to close so this feels an important PlayOffs for the Phoenix Suns who can begin with an upset on the road.

Home teams have won a lot of the Game 1's in recent First Round Series, but they do not always cover and smaller favourites have been most vulnerable. That is the position the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in and First Round home favourites of just 4 points or fewer are now 27-39-1 against the spread in this Round of the PlayOffs in recent seasons.

Add in the Phoenix win here last Sunday and overall dominance of the regular season series between the teams and the Suns look an underdog that can be backed with the points.

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Statements made from a bench player for the Philadelphia 76ers that they wanted to face the New York Knicks in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs as they are 'easier' than facing the Boston Celtics would make sense to a lot of fans.

However, you do have to question the mindset of players saying things like that out aloud and there is little doubt it will serve as massive motivation as far as the Number 2 Seeds are concerned.

In recent years, those teams coming out of the Play In Tournament games have been able to ride the momentum against rested opponents and upset the odds in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Last season the Lakers and the Miami Heat both won the opening games in the First Round of the PlayOffs having come through the Play In Tournament, but both were the Number 8 Seed and the 76ers have had a couple of days to rest and just ease out of the intensity they would have needed to narrowly knock off the Miami Heat.

Joel Embiid has been back and the 76ers have won nine in a row, but Paul Reed's comments will have resonated in New York.

The Knicks may not be the Boston Celtics, who have dominated the Eastern Conference this season, but they have fought through injury and the team have really picked up their own levels since the All Star Break. Add in the fact that Jalen Brunson has grown into a genuine star and the grit and determination shown by the Knicks, and they will certainly feel they are capable of beating this 76ers team having won three of the four regular season games.

All of those have been played this calendar year and Embiid has featured so there is nothing to intimidate the New York Knicks, although they are in a poor position of being a short priced home favourite, which has not been a good covering spot for teams in recent seasons in the First Round of the PlayOffs.

In saying that, the Knicks have shown little concern at having to face the winner of the first Play In Tournament game, even when it was clear that it was going to be either Philadelphia or Miami. Other games had finished as they entered Double Overtime on the final day of the regular season and the Knicks could have easily dropped that game against the Chicago Bulls to ensure a Series with the Indiana Pacers instead.

However, they do not think they can beat the 76ers and that would mean avoiding the Boston Celtics until the Eastern Conference Finals at the earliest, which could be enough time for things to change dramatically ahead of any potential Series.

Last season the Knicks won four of the five home games played in the post-season and they can open this Series with an important win. Narrow home favourites may not have a very strong covering record in the First Round, but teams are capable of covering and the Knicks can lay down an early marker to the 76ers that they are just as happy at having to face them as Philadelphia are the other way around.

The long winning run will have given Philadelphia confidence and momentum, but the Knicks finished the regular season with six wins in their last seven games and New York can open with an important win to get their post-season underway.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: It was very quickly shut down and then mocked by Head Coach Darvin Ham, but there was genuine talk ahead of the first Play In Tournament game that the Los Angeles Lakers should think about losing. The likes of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, as well as the Head Coach, would not have entertained the idea, but pundits and those watching believed it would be better for the Lakers to try and avoid a First Round Series with the Denver Nuggets.

After making their way through the Play In Tournament and then upsetting the Number 2 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies, the Los Angeles Lakers found themselves with plenty of momentum to take into the Western Conference Finals. However, they were swept aside by the Denver Nuggets, the eventual NBA Champions, and the Lakers have lost all three regular season games against them this season too.

It makes it eight straight wins for the Denver Nuggets and this is a dominant home team, which will make it very difficult for the Los Angeles Lakers to win this best of seven game Series.

Having Davis and James will be important, but the balance of the Denver roster is going to be tough to shake off and the Lakers will need one of the role players to step up and have a massive Series.

Even if that happens, stopping the Nuggets from doing what they want is going to be very difficult and the expectation is that they will underline their dominance right out of the gate.

Denver have not only won eight in a row against Los Angeles, but they have covered in the last five and remain a team with a dominant home court advantage. They will also note that big home favourites in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have had a dominating recent run at the betting window and they will be looking to create that uncertainty in the Lakers by having everyone speaking about how Los Angeles should have aimed to avoid playing the Nuggets in the First Round.

The successes of last season after coming through the Play In Tournament will help the Lakers, who are plenty experienced, but this feels like a Series that will be dictated by the Denver Nuggets and they can begin with a strong win.

Sunday 21st April

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The seven game Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Miami Heat would have bothered the Boston Celtics right through the off-season, but it has also provided motivation to have the best regular season in the NBA.

Eleven months on from attempting to become the first NBA team to rally from a 0-3 deficit in a PlayOff Series, only to fall short in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat meet in the First Round of the post-season.

Once again the Celtics are going to be big favourites when facing the Number 8 Seed in the East, but everyone associated with the team will be sitting back and reminding themselves of what can potentially go wrong against a grizzled opponent.

However, it is likely going to be a Series where the Heat are not able to call on Jimmy Butler and that does give the Boston Celtics a significant advantage. They have shown throughout this regular season that they are the team to beat and Boston are going to be very difficult shake off in a best of seven Series setting, which deservedly makes them favourites to win the NBA Championship.

Pressure will be on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown to put their names alongside some of the legendary Boston Celtics Champions of the past and that may be the one factor that holds them back. The rejigged roster looks very balanced though and the Celtics will be looking to make a big statement to the rest of the teams in the PlayOffs by crushing an opponent that ended their last post-season run.

In saying that, the Celtics look to be asked to cover a very high number in Game 1 of this Series.

The Heat showed last year that they can fight their way through adversity and being the Number 8 Seed having won one and lost one of their Play In Tournament games not going to be something that concerns them. Miami may be the best Coached team in the NBA and you have to believe Eric Spoelstra will find a way for his team to remain competitive, even without Jimmy Butler.

We saw that on Friday in the last Play In Tournament game as the Heat crushed the Chicago Bulls at home and that rhythm may allow them to keep things close against the Boston Celtics, even in a losing effort.

Games between the Celtics and Heat have been closely fought more often than not and this is a huge number of points being given to the road underdog.

Boston should win, they will have plenty of motivation from the way the Eastern Conference Finals ended last year and the Celtics are the better team. However, the Miami Heat are Coached so well and they have the rhythm that Boston may need to pick up as Game 1 develops with the number of days of rest between this one and their final regular season game.

Of course the Celtics are a team that can blow by any at any time, but this is a number of points that makes the Miami Heat appealing as this First Round Series gets underway.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: This was supposed to be a season in which the Milwaukee Bucks were going to be able to challenge for the NBA Championship once again.

Signing Damian Lillard to pair him with Giannis Antetokounmpo after the hugely disappointing First Round PlayOff exit was supposed to take the Bucks much further, but it has been an up and down season.

Firing a first year Head Coach just mere months into the season, despite a solid enough record, and hiring Doc Rivers has not exactly sparked the Bucks. A defeat on the final day of the regular season saw Milwaukee slip out of the Number 2 Seed and into this tough looking First Round Series against the Indiana Pacers.

To make matters worse, Antetokounmpo is set to miss Game 1 of this Series and there is a real concern that Milwaukee could be without their best player for considerably longer. That will be tough to overcome, especially as the Bucks have not matched up well with the Indiana Pacers already this season.

They missed the PlayOffs last season, but the Indiana Pacers have played really well this season and Tyrese Haliburton is a genuine star in the making.

Four wins in their last five games have seen the Pacers hold off the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat for a top six spot in the Eastern Conference, while they have won four of the five regular season games against Milwaukee. The Pacers have won two of three games on the road against the Bucks and they are a very trendy pick to cause one of the upsets of the First Round by working their way into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

Momentum is certainly with the Pacers and they are a team that will know how to beat the Milwaukee Bucks.

With the main player out for the home team, this looks a huge opportunity for the Indiana Pacers to at least steal away home court advantage in this First Round Series and they can do that with a win in Game 1.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: In recent years there has been plenty of talk of the roster being built by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Last season they came up short in the last of the Play In Tournament games, but the Thunder have grown from the experience and have surprisingly earned the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

The PlayOffs will feel like a very different kind of intensity for the young Thunder team, but they have shown throughout the course of the regular season that they are able to step up and take on new challenges. It will also help Oklahoma City knowing they beat the New Orleans Pelicans in the first of the Play In Tournament games twelve months ago, while they also won two of the three regular season games against this opponent.

New Orleans secured the Number 8 Seed after beating the Sacramento Kings in the Play In Tournament on Friday, while also ensuring they are not the first Number 7 Seed that has failed to earn a path into the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Zion Williamson missed out and is expected to be missing on Sunday for Game 1 of this First Round Series, while the Pelicans may have a different mentality in a game like this one.

Against the Kings, the New Orleans Pelicans had dominated the regular season series and that would have helped in overcoming the absence of one of their better players. It is not the case against the top Seed in the Western Conference and it is no surprise that the Thunder are such a strong favourite to win this opening game.

Big home favourites in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have done really well in covering the spread and the Oklahoma City Thunder may use the home crowd to propel them to a big start in this First Round Series.

The Thunder ended the regular season with five wins in a row and the last three were in blowout fashion.

They are a young team and PlayOff experiences are going to be different, but this looks like being a potentially very good Series for the Oklahoma City Thunder and they can can cover to begin the post-season.

Monday 22nd April

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers dominated Game 1 of this First Round Series and it was relatively comfortable for them right from the tip off. They never looked in danger of missing out on a cover, never mind winning the game outright, and there will be a real confidence that Cleveland can build on that victory before they travel to Florida for Game 3 and Game 4.

More of the pressure will be on an inexperienced Orlando Magic team that fell way short of the standard needed.

This entire PlayOff run is expected to be a growing experience for the Magic, but they will not want the season to end in a whimper and that means showing some fight and determination. It has long been felt that the Magic are not as strong on the road as they are at home, but they are also well aware that they need to win at least one road game if they are going to find a way past the Cleveland Cavaliers.

During the regular season, Orlando did win a road game here so they will be well aware that it is possible.

However, the entire intensity of the PlayOffs are much different to what teams cope with in the regular season and Orlando will have to come out with a lot more fire than they did in Game 1.

Even then, it will be a tough challenge to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers who importantly have a healthy Donovan Mitchell leading the way for the team. He gives the Cavaliers a proper Offensive spark and that only aids a team that have shown Defensive strength throughout the season.

Losing to the New York Knicks in the First Round last season is something that will have given the Cavaliers a bit more motivation and they have 'chosen' to face the Orlando Magic.

That decision will feel the correct one after the Game 1 win and Cleveland are capable of backing that up in Game 2.

In recent PlayOff years, Game 2 of the First Round has been dominated by the home team and they have covered at a very high rate. Some have sworn by the approach of switching teams to back between games in the post-season, but Game 1 hosts who returned as winners have a very strong 28-9 record against the spread in Game 2.

This one is expected to be closer, but Cleveland can still do enough to edge past the Orlando Magic at the betting window.

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: The starters may not have reached the levels they would have hoped, but the New York Knicks have shown they have a deep rotation. The bench was called upon in Game 1 and responded with a huge effort to help the Knicks edge past the Philadelphia 76ers and secure a 1-0 lead in this First Round Series.

They played really well at Madison Square Garden in the 2023 PlayOffs and the Knicks will know that it is important to hold serve again.

The efforts towards that could potentially be helped if Joel Embiid is limited again on Monday with little rest given between Games 1 and 2 of this First Round Series.

After a strong start, Embiid clearly hurt himself in the First Half and his impact on the game was weakened considerably after he spent a bit of time on the bench. He did return to the action, albeit in a clearly compromised state, and the 76ers struggled to stay with the New York Knicks.

Now the status is Questionable for Game 2, although the belief is that Joel Embiid will suit up with the 76ers a massively different proposition with him in or out of the starting lineup. Philadelphia have won a lot of games with Joel Embiid leading the way, but they were playing like a lottery team without him.

However, the New York Knicks have now become the second team this season to beat the Philadelphia 76ers TWICE with Joel Embiid in the lineup. This will give the Knicks a huge amount of encouragement, as will the fact that they will be expecting to get more out of the starters to ease some of the pressure on the bench players.

Like mentioned in the other Eastern Conference Game 2 being played on Monday, home teams at this stage of the First Round have been covering at a very high rate and especially when playing behind a win. If Joel Embiid is not quite able to reach the levels he can, the Knicks are certainly going to be able to take advantage and New York look in a good spot to move into a 2-0 lead with another cover.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: There were plenty of positives to take out of Game 1 of this First Round Series for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Keeping the Denver Nuggets away from the Free Throw line and having big games from LeBron James and Anthony Davis will have been the game plan before a ball had been tipped.

All of that came together, but the real worry is that the Lakers still lost for a ninth time in a row against the Denver Nuggets and were undone by double digits on Saturday.

Game 2 takes place on Monday night and the Denver Nuggets are big favourites to make it two in a row in this First Round Series, while the recent First Round PlayOff trends suggest they are likely to do that with another strong win.

Nikola Jokic continues to play at a dominant level and the Lakers really do not have many answers for him, but the Nuggets will still feel there is more to come from their team. Despite the big win, Denver will certainly feel they were under-par when it comes to the shooting standards and that room for improvement certainly gives them an opportunity to take a strong lead to the City of Angels where Game 3 and Game 4 is going to be played later this week.

Darvin Ham, the Lakers Head Coach, has suggested he has some adjustments in min that will help his team be more competitive as they bid to steal home court away.

He made the point that he did not want to give away all of his secrets in Game 1, but the Lakers have simply struggled to deal with the Denver Nuggets for a long time. Even if Ham has something special up his sleeve, the Nuggets need to be below par by a considerable margin for the Lakers to feel they can get away with a victory, especially here on the road.

Game 2 home teams playing with a win under their belt have been on a very strong run over the last eight years in the post-season and it feels like the Denver Nuggets can get the better of the same line they covered in Game 1.

Tuesday 23rd April

Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 Pick: Adjustments will be made by both of these teams, but Game 1 saw the Minnesota Timberwolves put an impressive performance on the board.

It was very important for the Timberwolves considering they had been swept by the Phoenix Suns in the regular season.

Backing up the Game 1 victory is going to be tough with the expectation that the Phoenix Suns will be stronger than they were in the blowout defeat. Kevin Durant played well enough, but he will need more support from Bradley Beal and Devin Booker who struggled to be as effective as the Suns would have hoped.

Grayson Allen is expected to suit up for the Suns having been limited in his impact in Game 1, while it has been made clear that they need to find a way to get Devin Booker better looks on the court. Keeping out of foul trouble will help, as Booker looks to develop stronger rhythm throughout this contest, and Phoenix have the positive mindset of having dominated the Timberwolves through the regular season.

However, the Suns are going to have to overcome some recent PlayOff trends that have seen teams recovering from blowout losses struggle in their next outing.

Add in the strong run home teams have been on in Game 2 of the First Round of the PlayOffs and there is plenty of good feelings in the Minnesota Timberwolves locker room as they bid to move into a 2-0 lead in this Series.

Showing off some of the bench depth could be important for the Timberwolves and that may prove to be the key as they look to make it two wins in a row.

Seeing Anthony Edwards continue to grow can only be positive news for Minnesota, who might have been a touch concerned about the potential match up with Phoenix. The early win in the Series will certainly have the Timberwolves believing that they can make their way through to the Conference Semi Finals and they may just have the qualities to continue a strong trend for home teams in Game 2 of the First Round by winning and covering here.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: Every PlayOff Game so far has been won by the home team through three days of the post-season, but there are a couple of road teams who will be confident of snapping that run on Tuesday.

First up as far as that is concerned is the Indiana Pacers, who really underperformed in Game 1 of this First Round Series, one that is likely going to see the Milwaukee Bucks go without Giannis Antetokounmpo a little longer.

This did not prove to be a problem in Game 1 of the Series after the Bucks blew out the Indiana Pacers thanks to a huge effort from Damian Lillard. For all of their regular season setbacks against the Pacers, the experienced Milwaukee team showed of their PlayOff nous in crushing an opponent with limited post-season games under their belt.

It was also the first time the Pacers have faced a Bucks team Coached by Doc Rivers, but they will be expecting a big reaction from the team. Tyrese Haliburton was locked down in Game 1, so the key for Indiana is making sure he has a much bigger impact on this one, which has to be expected.

Milwaukee will also be looking to make some adjustments and the experiences of Doc Rivers will be very important. The change in the Head Coaching position was made with the post-season in mind and finding a way through the First Round before having Giannis Antetokounmpo return would be a huge boost for the Bucks.

The first three PlayOff Series have all seen the home teams move into a 2-0 lead, but this one has had the makings of a competitive Series and the Pacers can find a way to bounce back. They have played well against the Bucks this season and increasing the intensity will give them the shot at earning the 'upset' before heading back home for two games.

Home teams behind wins have long dominated Game 2 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but those teams are 1-2 against the spread early in this one and Indiana can perhaps help push a new 'trend'.

Wednesday 24th April

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: They are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, and perhaps the NBA as a whole, but the Boston Celtics showed they are also pretty focused on making sure they do not slip up as they did last year.

Anything less than a NBA Championship will feel like a failure so there is real pressure on the Boston Celtics, although you would never have guessed it after the blowout of the Miami Heat in Game 1 of this First Round Series.

As has been the game plan for the season, the Celtics used a heavy dose of three point shooting to earn the victory in Game 1 and it was a game where they allowed the Fourth Quarter to drift away and still won by 20 points. The three point shooting from game to game can be a rollercoaster for any team in the NBA, but the Celtics will be most impressed with the manner in which they created their looks and the confidence they have in their role players to make the big plays is clear to see.

Eric Spoelstra is one of the best, if not the best, Head Coaches in the NBA and you have to believe he will be making significant adjustments to prevent his Miami Heat being in the kind of hole they got into during Game 1. However, the Head Coach is an intelligent man and he will know that the Heat have a mighty effort in front of them considering they are going to be without Jimmy Butler and simply not as productive from the three point range as the Boston Celtics.

With that in mind, the feeling is that the Heat are going to need their hosts to be as bad as Miami are going to need to be good to even make this a competitive Series and that looks a long shot.

There is little doubt that the Boston Celtics will have focused on avoiding the same fate as when they were upset by the Miami Heat eleven months ago in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that Series the Celtics were 0-3 down before fighting back, but this time they will be looking to sweep past the Heat and make sure every other team in the NBA knows what they are in for when facing Boston.

Covering this kind of number is clearly going to be challenging if the shots are not falling and you have to believe the Heat will be better than they were in Game 1.

Ultimately they will need to find a couple of players who can step up in the absence of Jimmy Butler, but that is a big ask and the Boston Celtics may just cover the same line as they did on Sunday.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: PlayOff experience is a real thing and that is why so many believe the Oklahoma City Thunder may not be ready to win a NBA Championship just yet. They finished with the top Seed in the Western Conference, but this is going to be a learning month for the Thunder, which should put this young team in a very good position to win Championships going forward.

In saying all that, the more PlayOff games they can get under their belt, the better, and so the Thunder will be looking to at least push themselves to progress as far as possible.

Holding off the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 1 helped the Oklahoma City Thunder to a lead in the First Round Series and they will be pushing to go 2-0 ahead before heading on the road for two games. Those are going to be a whole new level of experience for the young Thunder team, but there is a feeling that finding a way to get over the line in Game 1 will also stand them in very good stead going forward.

Being without Zion Williamson is a huge blow for the Pelicans, but they have shown enough in Game 1 to believe they can make the adjustments and really turn this into a big First Round Series. They will need a bit more out of their two big players, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, especially as the Pelicans are going with a relatively small rotation.

Defensively they have played like a top team for some time, but the challenge in keeping this Oklahoma City Offensive unit quiet throughout this Series is going to be a very big one.

And it does ramp up the pressure on the Pelicans Offensively considering how well the Thunder have played all season on the Defensive side of the court.

Ultimately the close defeat in Game 1 may have just given the Pelicans a bit more belief and especially when you believe they can get a bit more out of Ingram and McCollum.

This Thunder team is a really good one, but they are still young and learning and it may allow the New Orleans Pelicans to bounce back after a very close defeat.

Teams that have lost First Round PlayOff Games by less than four points have bounced back to go 33-14-2 against the spread in their next game and we have seen home teams struggling to cover in Game 2 of the First Round this season. With the big number in front of the Thunder again, it may be the New Orleans Pelicans who surprise by keeping this one competitive and perhaps even earning an outright upset.

It would feel a lot different if Zion Williamson was suiting up, but even without him, the Pelicans have shown they can remain a competitive unit and they can make the adjustments to perhaps keep themselves within this line again.

Thursday 25th April

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: They did not play well down the stretch in the regular season and barely held on for a top six spot in the Eastern Conference and that loss of form has seeped into the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. A more experienced team might have been able to cope with things a bit better, but the Orlando Magic are under immense pressure having dropped both game on the road and without really impacting either.

The reality is that the Cleveland Cavaliers have 'held serve' by winning both games in this First Round Series, but they have looked superior to the Orlando Magic by a big margin.

Things are expected to flip a little bit now this Series moves to Florida where the Orlando Magic have been much stronger, but Cleveland will arrive knowing they won their previous visit to this Arena in the regular season.

Jalen Suggs looked to have picked up a serious injury in the Game 2 loss, but he was back on the court for the second half. However, there will be some questions about his status ahead of Game 3 with the knee likely to have flared up once the adrenaline of the game wore off.

Orlando need much more out of their starters who have struggled to cope with the strong Cleveland Defensive schemes- they simply will not win this Series if they cannot find a more efficient scoring structure having been contained to 33% from the field in Game 1 and 36% in Game 2 and with the three point shooters being hassled.

Playing at home should make it more reasonable to believe in the Orlando Magic Offensive threats, but it is still a big ask.

Despite the lead, the Cleveland Cavaliers may still believe that there is more to com from their own Offensive players, especially from the three point line. Donovan Mitchell is still pushing the team forward, but he is just 5/18 from the three point arc through the first two games of the First Round Series and that is an efficiency the top player, and the rest of the Cavaliers will want to improve.

If they can do that, the Cavaliers can take a firm grip of this First Round Series and it does feel the spread has moved too far in favour of the home team.

This is not a big home favourite and Game 3 hosts who are set a narrow line have really struggled in recent years when it comes to the cover. The former well used trend of backing a team 0-2 down to fight back and secure a First Half cover is no longer valid with the layers well on top of those lines and the simplest approach to this First Round Series is backing the road team with the points to continue their dominance of a lower Seed.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: There was an immense amount of frustration as to how Game 2 of this First Round Series ended and the Philadelphia 76ers have not had that long to get over the disappointment of the defeat to fall into a 2-0 hole.

The Knicks managed to score eight points in the final 20 seconds and that saw them overcome a five point deficit to steal the win away and make sure they have held serve in both home games in the Series.

However, there was a lot of controversy attached to some of the officiating down the stretch and it is clear that the 76ers feel very hard done by.

Even now, Joel Embiid is insisting his team will find a way to earn a place in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, but they dare not lose Game 3. The fact the NBA admitted that the calls against Philadelphia in the final two minutes of Game 2 had been wrong does not make a jot of difference for the 76ers, although there is a feeling that the officials may edge on the side of caution in this one.

It should allow the 76ers to try and impose themselves on the grizzled New York Knicks who still think there is room for improvement from themselves. Jalen Brunson has been very inefficient from the field and the Knicks will need him to just tighten up some, while New York have been relying on dominating the boards to edge both games in the Series.

Doing that on the road will be that much more challenging and the 76ers have been placed as a pretty big favourite to at least halve the deficit in this one.

The layers have tended to get those lines right in Game 3 of the First Round of the PlayOffs and teams favoured by at least 4.5 points at home have a 12-2 record against the spread.

A motivated and heated Philadelphia 76ers team are likely going to come out very hot and it may just see them control this game by Half Time. The Knicks have shown plenty of fight and determination all season, but it may be tough to contain the home crowd and players after perceived injustices from Game 2 and the 76ers may just remind everyone why the confidence remains high despite being in a 2-0 hole.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: There were clear mistakes made in the Philadelphia 76ers loss to the New York Knicks, but a pivotal one in the Third Quarter between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets swung the pendulum in Game 2 of their First Round Series.

Instead of having two Free Throws to add to a big lead, the Lakers saw the call overturned and LeBron James was incredibly upset after the game.

He is experienced enough to know the Lakers need to also take some responsibility for blowing a big lead in Game 2 as they looked to steal away home court advantage and prevent losing to the Denver Nuggets for a tenth game in a row. The late collapse will really have stung and, like many, I will be questioning what kind of resolve the Lakers are going to be able to show.

This has clearly been a bad match up for them and losing a game in the manner they did in Game 2 will have some questioning whether they can win a single game against the Nuggets, never mind the Series.

Being back at home will give the Lakers some belief, while teams who have lost narrowly in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have recovered to post a really strong 20-6-2 record against the spread when they have been set between a + 5 and - 5 Point range, which is exactly where the Lakers are.

However, the Lakers will know that those narrow home favourites/underdogs in Game 3 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have been on a really poor run of covering form and this Denver team will certainly believe they have more to show. The lead is a strong one in the First Round Series, but Denver have certainly not been able to put a full 48 minutes together and that will offer them plenty of encouragement as they look to return home with a place in the Western Conference Semi Finals secured.

After putting so much into Game 2 and still falling short, it is hard to really trust the Los Angeles Lakers here and so backing the Denver Nuggets looks the right play.

Friday 26th April

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: Damian Lillard is going to do Damian Lillard things in the PlayOffs and we know that from his time with the Portland Trail Blazers. Shutting off that tap is unlikely, but the Indiana Pacers showed that if they can control some of the role players, they are the better team in this First Round Series.

This is most definitely the case with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing time on the court, although the Pacers will feel they have gotten the better of the Bucks often enough in the regular season to not have been concerned if The Greek Freak played or not.

Ultimately it is an absence that is going to affect the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as their top player is missing, although they have shown enough to believe they can steal back home court advantage before heading back to their own Arena.

Dropping Game 2 will have stung, and it was much to do with the adjustments made by the Indiana Pacers who improved their shooting significantly between the first and second game in this Series. Tyrese Haliburton has yet to get going with just 21 points combined, way below his average of the season against the Bucks and overall, but Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam are doing what they like.

Bobby Portis was critical of the Indiana Pacers and called them 'frontrunners' who are not nearly as effective when they are chasing the game. This looks a decent point to make, but Indiana are back on their home floor for Games 3 and 4 and stealing one of those away is going to be a tough ask for Milwaukee if they cannot tighten up Defensively.

There is also some concern about an injury that Khris Middleton has picked up and him being on the sidelines along with Giannis Antetokounmpo will really swing the First Round Series in favour of the lower Seed.

We have seen adjustments already being made in this Series and Doc Rivers has plenty of experience, but the Pacers look the play as a strong home favourite. This has been a good spot for those teams in Game 3 of the First Round of the PlayOffs in recent times, while teams coming home after a win have been covering more often than not in this Round.

The last time Milwaukee played here, they ended with a 12 point loss and the Indiana Pacers may just move in front behind a win and cover.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: The saying is that a PlayOff Series does not begin until the road team has won a game, and that is what happened when the Dallas Mavericks edged past the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 2.

Levelling the Series means the Mavericks have taken away home court advantage, but backing that up is going to be the challenge. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving continue to lead the way for the Mavericks, but a couple of key contributions from the role players really helped them on their way to secure an important win in a tight, PlayOff atmosphere.

In both games the Dallas Mavericks have been favoured so it is perhaps a surprise that they are not stronger favourites now the Series has shifted to their home court. The fact that Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers perhaps is a contribution to that, especially as Leonard finished up Game 2 and admitted he is not feeling any issues after making a return from another lay-off.

Injuries have been used as an excuse as to why the Los Angeles Clippers have not achieved more in this Leonard and Paul George era, but having both available is big. James Harden is playing well and has plenty of his own PlayOff experiences to fall back upon and there will be no sense of panic from the Clippers having lost last time out.

Like a number of teams in the NBA, the Clippers are very much reliant on strong three point shooting and the numbers from Game 1, when they hit eighteen, slipped off significantly in Game 2 when they managed just eight. They will live and die by those looks, but adjustments can be made to just help along the shooters who struggled to make an impact from the distance.

The Mavericks look a lot more steady- they will expect Doncic and Irving to take a large majority of the shots and just need a few role players to step up alongside them. Both of the big names are playing efficiently and can be tough to stop Offensively, but it is the intensity on the Defensive side of the court which has impressed Head Coach Jason Kidd.

More will be needed in what has been two tough games for the Dallas Mavericks, a team who averaged 117 points per game in the regular season but who have yet to crack 97 in this Series. Being back at home will help those role players, while the Clippers could be without Tim Hardaway Jr, a significant contributor from the bench.

You cannot rule out another 'under' in Game 3, but the total points line has shrunk considerably from Game 1 to Game 3 after what has been seen.

Instead the momentum looks to be behind the Dallas Mavericks and they may be able to kick on at home, even against a Los Angeles Clippers team back at full strength as far as the starters go. Adjustments will be made to help the Clippers become more effective from the three point line, but the Mavericks can back up the strong Game 3 trends of big home favourites and they may just edge over this line set.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns Game 3 Pick: Anthony Edwards was not going to be allowed to beat the Phoenix Suns, but it just allowed Jaden McDaniels to step up and the Minnesota Timberwolves dominated the second half in Game 2.

It has moved them 2-0 ahead of the Phoenix Suns and the pressure has most definitely shifted onto the home team ahead of this one.

Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have had moments, but they have not been nearly as effective as the Suns need them to be and it has placed pressure on the role players to step up. Unfortunately for the Suns, Grayson Allen looks to have hurt himself and is Questionable to even suit up in Game 3 so has to be expected to be limited, while they have not been able to get a couple of players going from the bench at the same time.

More adjustments will be needed to try and spark this Offensive unit, which is massively underperforming, and the Phoenix Suns will be hoping home court at least offers some respite.

Things are much smoother for the Minnesota Timberwolves who will feel there is still some room for improvement, despite the strong wins to open this Series. They have had issues facing the Phoenix Suns in the regular season, but those victories show the growth that the Timberwolves had have now we enter PlayOff situations.

The first half was competitive, but the Timberwolves will feel they have the depth to wear down this Phoenix team.

In both wins, the Timberwolves have had significant contributions from the bench, while the starters have shown they can spread the ball around and dominate inside the paint. The three point shooting may need some work if Anthony Edwards is still finding his spaces swarmed, but you have to expect Edwards to be much better in Game 3 with his personal adjustments likely going to have an impact.

Last season teams suffering blowout losses in the First Round and then returning home had been really strong so the Phoenix Suns have to be respected in Game 3, even if they have looked well short of the Timberwolves so far in the Series. There is a talented starting group that can put things right very quickly, but this is a line that home teams have struggled to deal with in Game 3 of the First Round in recent years and that is with the sense of expectation that can be around them.

The 'under' has come in compared with the earlier lines after the dominant performances of the Timberwolves on the Defensive side of the court. However, they have also shown they have the Offensive firepower to hurt this Phoenix team and the feeling is that the Timberwolves will find a way to keep this one close.

Backing against a team full of talented players like the Suns is hard, especially in their desperate spot, but even in wins in the regular season, Phoenix rarely pushed clear of the Timberwolves easily. Add in the fact that the Minnesota Timberwolves are operating at full health and have bench players contributing, and this has the makings of a close game where the road underdog may even have late opportunities to win outright.

Saturday 27th April

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Game 4 Pick: It has long made a difference in the NBA PlayOffs when playing at home compared to the road and that genuinely can see role players have up and down performances throughout a Series.

After losing both games on the road, the Orlando Magic were under pressure on Thursday evening when playing at home for the first time in this First Round Series.

The fans might have been a little edgy after watching a relatively slow start, but the Magic most definitely found their rhythm in building the biggest half time lead in a PlayOff game since 2011. Even the break did nothing to slow them down and the Orlando Magic earned a blowout win that has halved the deficit in the Series.

Almost everything worked as planned with a very efficient shooting day coupled with a dominance on the boards that made it almost impossible for Cleveland Cavaliers to even threaten to fight back.

You have to expect the road team will make adjustments, but the problem for the Cavaliers is that they are not performing well enough Offensively to make up for any Defensive level like the one they produced in Game 3. For all of their ambitions, there has to be a big improvement with the way Cleveland are shooting the ball having won the first two games in this Series behind dominant Defense.

Momentum may be with Orlando, but the Cleveland Cavaliers knew what they were getting into when allowing themselves to slip into the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They will look to get Jarrett Allen more active around the boards, and that will certainly help them make this more competitive, but bouncing back from a blowout loss has proved challenging for teams in the First Round of the PlayOffs in recent times.

Home teams in Game 4 between plus three and negative three spread lines have a very strong record against the spread by going 19-8-1 against the spread since 2013. The feeling is that the Orlando Magic have found a good way to get into games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the limited rest between Game 3 and Game 4 should favour them as they look to level the Series before both teams head back to Cleveland early next week.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 Pick: Zion Williamson looks set to miss at least the remainder of the First Round Series for the New Orleans Pelicans and a tough task has been made that much more difficult for the Number 8 Seed.

The blowout loss in Game 2 on the road will have stung, but the New Orleans Pelicans return home on Saturday and will know that all the Oklahoma City Thunder have done is to hold serve twice at home.

However, being 2-0 down in this Series and knowing that Williamson is not going be able to return to offer the Pelicans a boost will give the rest of the roster a bit more concern. Turning the First Round Series around would have been a big ask even with their star player in the lineup, and New Orleans have to find a way to get more Offensive production out of those remaining.

In both games in the Series, the Pelicans have been restricted to 92 points and that is putting a lot of pressure on the Defensive schemes to try and contain Oklahoma City. Of course being back at home should free up some of the role players in a PlayOff intensity, but somehow the Pelicans have to find the right balance to make sure they are not on the brink of an exit after Game 3.

Depth is going to be a potential issue for the Oklahoma City Thunder the deeper they move into the post-season, but the starters have shown how good they can be throughout the campaign. It was those starters who powered the Thunder clear in Game 2 and they are likely going to give them an edge in this one too.

Even if they are not at full tilt, the Defensive powers have limited the damage the Pelicans have been able to do and that could be key for Oklahoma City.

One factor that could work against the Thunder is the inexperience as this young core prepares for a first road PlayOff game, but this is a spot in which a narrow road favourite in Game 3 of the First Round Series have dominated, much as the Denver Nuggets did on Thursday evening.

Those hosts in narrow spread situations in Game 3, either as a narrow favourite or underdog, are just 7-18-1 against the spread and the Thunder look to have the Offensive power to win a big game on the road.

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: After winning Game 1 by 20 points, a margin that could have been much greater if the hosts had wanted it to be, the Boston Celtics might have just been 'smelling themselves' ahead of Game 2 as they looked to earn redemption for the Eastern Conference Finals defeat to the Miami Heat last year.

No Jimmy Butler... No problem!

The Heat did something quite unexpected without their leading player and bombarded the hosts from the three point line with 53% of their shots landing from the distance. That number alone is not impressive, but the fact that the Heat hit 23 three pointers compared to just 12 for the Boston Celtics turned the tables and means they can return to South Beach with the Series tied at 1-1.

Plenty of demons might have risen in the Boston minds after that defeat and there is little doubt that Erik Spoelstra continues to underline his status as the best Head Coach in the NBA. He made the adjustments Defensively that seemed to rattle the Number 1 Seed, while the Head Coach can only be proud of his players stepping up and hitting three pointers for fun.

It is a make or miss League and the Boston Celtics will know that- they had 22 three pointers in the Game 1 blowout, but just 12 in the Game 2 loss and it will be up to the best team in the NBA to show they can settle down much quicker than they did last season when suddenly finding themselves 3-0 down in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Heat will continue to go without Jimmy Butler, but the home crowd should help the role players as they look to back up the upset on the road.

This is still a big ask for the Miami Heat and they will need the Boston Celtics to come out cold from the three point arc as they were in Game 2. For much of the season we have seen it is difficult to expect Boston to underperform again and they can bounce back and at least regain home court advantage in this First Round Series.

Hosts who are give 4.5 points or more are 7-11-1 against the spread in Game 3 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and the Celtics should be much better than they were last time out. Going back to the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston have won four in a row in this Arena and the reaction should be a positive one from the Number 1 Seed in the East.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: There are a lot of questions about the decision making at the Los Angeles Lakers that saw them go into this season with a very similar roster to the one that was swept away by the Denver Nuggets last season.

Instead of trying to make moves to close the gap, the Lakers seemingly decided the Western Conference Finals Series sweep was 'close' enough to believe that things could easily swing back their way.

Regular season losses to the Denver Nuggets should have perhaps made the Lakers change their approach and try and get things changed before the trade deadline, but failure to do that looks to be something they may regret. The Nuggets have not exactly needed to be at their best to win all three games in this First Round Series and the Lakers are very unlikely to become the first NBA team to turn a 0-3 deficit into a Series win.

Game 3 could not have begun much better for the Lakers with Nikola Jokic in early foul trouble and Los Angeles coming out very quickly. However, much like recent meetings with the Nuggets, the defending Champions were able to grind down the Lakers with the latter not having a bench that can ensure that the likes of Anthony Davis and LeBron James are given a bit of rest.

The fourth game in the Series takes place with just a day of rest between games and it really feels like a very difficult spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.

You have to imagine they will leave it all on the court to try and push this Series back to Denver early next week, but the Nuggets have been comfortably the better team. Losing Game 2 in the fashion they did will have really hurt the Lakers, but the lack of consistency from three point shooting makes it hard to replicate that kind of performance over and over again.

Even with a 3-0 lead, the Denver Nuggets will certainly feel there is still more to come from them having had issues finding their own consistency from three point range. However, they have a deeper bench and the stronger starting five and ultimately it is not a fluke that Denver keep beating the Lakers, no matter how close some of the games may have been.

Teams trailing 3-0 in the First Round have a 14-18-1 record against the spread, while hosts coming off a loss and being back at home have a losing record against the spread over the last eight years too.

Maybe we get one massive effort from the likes of Davis and LeBron James to at least secure a gentleman's sweep at worst, but Denver's run of wins against Los Angeles are impossible to ignore and they may just ensure a bit of rest before the Western Conference Finals.

Sunday 28th April

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: This had the makings of a tetchy First Round Series before a ball had even been tipped and the intensity has picked up as we have moved just away half way through the Series.

The New York Knicks opened with two wins at Madison Square Garden, but the Philadelphia 76ers bounced back on Thursday with Joel Embiid backing up his comments stating he believed his team would recover from 2-0 down. The 76ers top player scored 50 points in the win over the Knicks and he was shooting the ball really well from all over the court.

An incident with Mitchell Robinson has only increased the tension for both of these teams.

Joel Embiid has suggested he was looking after his own health when pulling on Robinson has both were landing, but Josh Hart described the play as 'dirty' and other Knicks players feel the same. It stung all the more knowing Mitchell Robinson was unable to participate in the second half and he looks set to miss at least Game 4 and possibly longer.

He was going to be a key part of the New York approach to deal with Joel Embiid, and freeing up the latter is going to be a tough situation for the Knicks to deal with after what was shown in Game 3.

While the final score was heavily in favour of the 76ers, the New York Knicks have to be happy enough with their own performance and will expect Joel Embiid to not be nearly as efficient as he was in the defeat on Thursday. They did deal with the rest of the team pretty well, although the Knicks will have to expect the Philadelphia role players to have a bigger impact at home than they have at Madison Square Garden.

Both teams are going to launch a lot of three pointers and some of the issues in Game 3 might see players looking to be a bit more physical in this one, which in turn may lead to more Free Throws.

We have seen enough from both the 76ers and Knicks to believe they can surpass this total points line for the third time in four games in this First Round Series. That strong three point shooting can make a big impact on the getting over the total and the layers may not have pushed this total out far enough just yet.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: They have been favoured in every game in this First Round Series, but the Dallas Mavericks learned a tough lesson in Game 1 as they were beaten on the road.

Jason Kidd would have wanted to see a big response from his team, who look to have a window to win a NBA Championship, and physical Defensive performances have led to a 2-1 lead, including moving ahead on Friday in Game 3 at home.

That physical intensity led to a couple of ejections on Friday, one for the Mavericks and one for the Los Angeles Clippers. while Luka Doncic admitted he had a stiff knee after a tough Fourth Quarter. This is not expected to keep him out on Sunday as the Mavericks push for a significant lead in the First Round Series before heading back to the City of Angels.

A small Championship window remains in front of the Clippers, but Kawhi Leonard struggled with his knee in Game 3 and that leaves him doubtful for Game 4, especially with the quick turnaround. Much like recent years, Leonard's injuries have come at a bad time for the Los Angeles Clippers and the pairing with Paul George and now the addition of James Harden looks like it will end in failure rather than a Championship.

Even if Kawhi Leonard cannot go, and he will be a big miss, the Clippers can take solace in the fact they won Game 1 without arguably their best player.

However, the Dallas Defensive pick up has contained the Los Angeles Clippers since a strong output in Game 1 and it is a big ask for the higher Seed to turn this around.

The spread is a touch higher than it was for Game 3 and that is largely down to the expected absence of Leonard.

Keep an eye out for the Luka Doncic news, but it would be a massive surprise if he sits out rather than trying to move into a position to end this Series as soon as possible. The Mavericks have been far from perfect in this First Round Series, but they may feel there is a bit more to come and they can move clear in the second half to take a grip of this one.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: The First Quarter of the first home PlayOff game could not have gone much better for the Indiana Pacers, while they had a big lead midway through the Third Quarter.

However, the Milwaukee Bucks finished with the Number 3 Seed and have genuine NBA Championship aspirations and this is a team with plenty of post-season experience. They showed all of that to fightback from the 17 point deficit and force Overtime, but the Bucks came up short thanks to Tyrese Haliburton.

After struggling with his shot in Game 3, much as he has throughout this First Round Series, Tyrese Haliburton hit a three pointer to win the game and help the Indiana Pacers to move into a 2-1 lead in the Series.

It was the only three pointer made by Tyrese Haliburton in twelve attempts in Game 3, but it could not have come at a bigger moment. The victory also erased a monster game from Khris Middleton, who suited up for the Bucks despite being Questionable and it is going to be a huge challenge for the road team to bounce back with a day of rest between games.

To make it even tougher, Damian Lillard has aggravated an injury and that has to leave him Questionable, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to sit out again.

After all of the efforts put into fighting back in Game 3, it may be tough for the Bucks to back that up and especially if Lillard is limited.

The Pacers might be better for the first home PlayOff game under the belt and they may be able to contain any recovery from Milwaukee in a much better fashion having a bit of experience of coping with a situation. They have looked the stronger team over the last couple of games and the Pacers can really take a real grip of this First Round Series.

Monday 29th April

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Things very much spiralled out of the control of the Boston Celtics eleven months ago when they fell into a 0-3 hole against the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but that PlayOff experience might have shaped this current roster. A few changes were made, but some of the core players remain and they showed how much they learned from last season when not allowing the Game 2 slip to prolong much further.

They might have won by 20 points on Saturday, but this was a much easier win for the Boston Celtics than even that final margin would suggest.

With a little over four minutes left, the Boston Celtics were able to withdraw starters and the bench players only added two more points, which allowed the Miami Heat to at least closer on the scoreboard. Ultimately both teams will know Boston were very comfortable and the pressure is back on the Heat to respond.

The Celtics will feel they were still not quite at their very best level in the win in Game 3, despite the dominance on the scoreboard, but they once again picked up their Defensive intensity. It was never likely that the Miami Heat were going to be able to replicate the heavy dose of three point shooting that pushed them to a Game 2 victory, but it was a hugely significant drop off on Saturday and much more in line with what we saw in the opening game of this First Round Series.

It is very clear that the Heat are going to have play lights out Basketball to win this Series, but that Game 2 effort feels like an exception rather than the rule to the standards they can reach. Without Jimmy Butler it is a very tall task for the Miami Heat and even with their strong Coaching, they might find themselves on the brink of an elimination when returning to Boston later this week.

The Celtics will have noted their their Semi Final opponent will at least have played six games in the First Round and so there is an opportunity to earn some rest by working their way past Miami as soon as possible.

Big home underdogs have struggled in Game 4 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and teams continue to have issues when playing off a blowout loss. This Series has seen the big loser bounce back in the next game, but these heavy losses have tended to linger on in the First Round and the Boston Celtics are expected to be a little better from outside of the three point arc.

If they can do that as expected, the Celtics should be able to pull clear for a third big win over the Miami Heat in this Series and be able to cover this big line.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans Game 4 Pick: Five wins in a row over the New Orleans Pelicans has contributed to the Oklahoma City Thunder moving into a 3-0 lead in this First Round Series. For all of their post-season inexperience, the Thunder have to be commended for the way they have handled the last two games after narrowly beating the Pelicans in Game 1.

Back to back blowouts is impressive enough, but the fact the Game 3 blowout was on the road really will have gotten the rest of the Conference to take note.

There won't be many downplaying the talent of this Oklahoma City Thunder roster, but they are young and inexperienced and so some may have expected the team to just have to find their feet when dealing with road PlayOff intensity.

It is perhaps a factor that they are being helped by playing a New Orleans team missing Zion Williamson, although that alone is not an excuse. The Thunder have really limited what the Pelicans have been able to create from the three point arc and that has been a big issue when Oklahoma City are pretty much having their way Offensively.

When the Pelicans have had Zion Williamson against the Thunder, they have been getting into the triple digits of points scored, but the absence is contributing to the fact they are averaging less than 90 points per game in this Series. This is simply not going to cut it for the Pelicans who are playing to avoid being swept out of the PlayOffs.

The Los Angeles Lakers managed to do that on Saturday, but something drastic has to change if the New Orleans Pelicans can follow suit.

We have seen very little sign of that in the last two games and it has begun to feel that the Game 1 narrow defeat has just knocked a lot of the stuffing out of a team missing their best player. Home fans will try and rally them, but the Thunder have matched up well with the Pelicans and the young players are showing that they are not willing to be overawed by the occasion having secured the top Seed in the Western Conference.

In the last two wins, the Thunder have had their way Offensively and they have found good looks all around the court.

Home underdogs being given 3.5 points or more are just 13-22-1 against the spread, while teams looking to avoid a sweep are 15-18-1 against the spread. New Orleans will have to have significant adjustments and hope the Thunder have suddenly gotten a little nervous to better those numbers and that looks unlikely at this stage after the blowout win for the road team on Saturday.

MY PICKS: 20/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

20/04 Phoenix Suns + 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/04 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

20/04 Denver Nuggets - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

21/04 Miami Heat + 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

21/04 Indiana Pacers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

21/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

22/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

22/04 New York Knicks - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

22/04 Denver Nuggets - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

23/04 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

23/04 Indiana Pacers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

24/04 Boston Celtics - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

24/04 New Orleans Pelicans + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

25/04 Cleveland Cavaliers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

25/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

25/04 Denver Nuggets @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

26/04 Indiana Pacers - 5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

26/04 Dallas Mavericks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

26/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

27/04 Orlando Magic - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

27/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

27/04 Boston Celtics - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

27/04 Denver Nuggets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/04 Philadelphia 76ers-New York Knicks Over 208 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/04 Dallas Mavericks - 6 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

28/04 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

29/04 Boston Celtics - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

29/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 16-13, + 1.78 Units (28 Units Staked, + 6.38% Yield)