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Monday, 11 December 2017

NBA Picks December 2017 (December 11-17)

December has not started as well as I had hoped and I have taken a couple of days off from the NBA Picks to get back on track.

I missed any picks from Sunday after the New York Knicks blew a big chance to knock off the Chicago Bulls on Saturday and I won't be making any picks from Monday this week either.

However I am putting the thread for the week's NBA games up now and will be adding Picks as the week progresses.

Monday 11th December
There are a few games scheduled for Monday but it is the case of having a watching brief for me as I look to get this month back on track. It has been a good start to the season for the NBA Picks, but nothing really appealed on Monday after what has been a rough opening to December.

Tuesday 12th December
LA Lakers @ New York Knicks Pick: Time restrictions means I will say a few words here for this one NBA Pick from the Tuesday offerings.

The Knicks have been so much better at home than on the road and they will be looking to put another win on the board during a period where so many of their games will have to be played away from Madison Square Garden. They have the shooting to trouble the LA Lakers who will be excited about playing here, but may be a little over-rated having won back to back games.

New York are 3-0 against the spread when favoured by less than 3 points and the superior three point Defensive work may just be enough for the Knicks to win this one and cover this number.

Wednesday 13th December
I would not have been impressed if the LA Lakers had scored their wide open three point attempt when inbounding the ball at 0.6 seconds left.

Down by 4 points, it made absolutely no sense for Luke Walton to call a timeout, and then have his players attempt that shot with the game over. Well it would have made sense in Vegas when the missed shot was the difference between the Knicks and the Lakers covering the number that had been set.

Thankfully the shot didn't go down, but I do wonder what Walton was thinking as there was never going to be the time to get the two possessions the Lakers needed. In usual circumstances the Kristaps Porzingis two free throws ice the game and the Lakers run out the clock themselves, but this was just a strange decision from Walton all around.

Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets Pick: There is no doubting that this is a big number for the Houston Rockets to cover when they host the Charlotte Hornets and look to keep their winning run going. They have blown out the Hornets twice in a row on the road, including earlier this season, but this is a big enough number for Charlotte to secure a backdoor cover at the very worst.

The Rockets also have the San Antonio Spurs next up on deck in a big Western Conference game so there is reason to believe they may overlook the Hornets.

However, I am going to back the Rockets to win because they are clearly in good form and won't want to go into the Spurs game off a loss. They are laying the hammer down Offensively and I am not sure Charlotte have the talent to stay with them even off a good looking win at the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Charlotte return home after this game and they have a couple of key injuries which may make it difficult for the Hornets to challenge the Rockets on the glass like they would like. They haven't much enjoyed playing in Houston either with a 3-12-1 record against the spread in the last sixteen games here and the Rockets have a strong 4-1 record against the spread when being favoured by between 10 and 13.5 points this season.

It won't be easy, but if Houston continue finding their range from the three point arc, I do think they can win and cover here.

Thursday 14th December
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Wednesday was a disappointment with the one NBA Pick missing out by a single point from the cover. Houston were up by 19 points with a little over two minutes remaining which really did stick in the craw, but I got a little lucky with the first Pick this week.

Hopefully Thursday will be better.

The first Pick I have is going with the Detroit Pistons to snap their recent losing run with a trip to Atlanta which looks to be coming at the right time for the visitors. The Hawks are off a long road trip and are making one stop at home before heading to the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday and they have been struggling for the majority of the season.

Of course the Pistons are short of confidence at the moment, but I would expect them to have every chance of getting back on track after some inefficient shooting days in recent games. This Hawks Defensive unit is not one of the stronger ones out there and I would expect the Pistons to have a much stronger day all around.

The Pistons are 5-3 against the spread when favoured by 5 or less points this season and Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread when given up to 5 points as the underdog. Detroit already hold a win over Atlanta at home and they have been a strong road team when it comes to the window and I will look for them to snap a negative run ahead of a big game with the Indiana Pacers on Friday.

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Knicks may have won back to back games, but both were played at Madison Square Garden and there is no denying how much weaker New York have been on their travels. Granted this is not a long trip for them as they go to the Brooklyn Nets, but I also think it is tough to back the Knicks to win when they have been so inconsistent on their travels.

This is a revenge spot for the Nets who have lost at MSG back in October, but who have won three of their last four games going into this one. Being a favourite is a weird position for the Nets, but Brooklyn are 4-0 against the spread as the favourite of less than 3 points this season which makes it easier to want to back them.

The Nets are playing the slightly better Defense at the moment and they have the ability to challenge New York on the boards and I think that is a good enough reason to back them here. Adding the New York factor of being on the road helps especially when the Knicks are just 1-2 against the spread playing a team with a losing record.

The home team is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in this series and the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six. The Nets have been a covering machine in home games recently compared with the Knicks who have had difficulties covering on the road and I will back the narrow home favourite to win this one too.

MY PICKS: 12/12 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/12 Houston Rockets - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
14/12 Detroit Pistons - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/12 Brooklyn Nets - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

December 11-17 Update: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

December 1-10 Final: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)

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