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Saturday, 15 July 2017

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2017- Ladies Final (July 15th)

The Ladies Final at Wimbledon 2017 will involve a Williams again, but it is 37 year old Venus Williams who has come into the tournament that her younger sister Serena could not defend due to pregnancy.

For a long time it was Venus who was the dominant Williams sister on the famous lawns in SW19, but now she will be looking to pull to within one of Serena by taking the title home on Saturday.

That won't be easy against Garbine Muguruza who has played in two previous Grand Slam Finals, both times against Serena Williams. She won the last one of those at the French Open in 2016, but it was Serena Williams who beat Muguruza here at Wimbledon in the 2015 Final.

The Spaniard plays with plenty of power and comes into the Final as the favourite, but Venus Williams has the experience and arguably is playing on her most natural surface.

Venus Williams v Garbine Muguruza: I picked Venus Williams as the winner of this tournament at the start of the event and she has already provided a big return having reached the Final. That means those who followed the outright picks are now sitting on a big priced winner in what has been set as an almost pick 'em Final, but I think it may be worth letting things play out with my feeling being Venus Williams can go on and win the title here for the sixth time.

Both players have only dropped one set in the tournament so far and while Garbine Muguruza had the more straight-forward Semi Final win, I do think Venus Williams has improved in each passing match through the tournament. The serve has been a huge weapon for Venus Williams and it was that delivery which kept Johanna Konta in awkward positions in their Semi Final.

The serve working as well as it has been also means Venus Williams has been able to play with some freedom on the return games and that has seen her put some real pressure on opponents. As well as Garbine Muguruza has served at times, the raw numbers suggest she has been put under some pressure but has managed to play the key points at 30-30, deuce or break point down very effectively.

Some of the players Muguruza have played will be kicking themselves they didn't play those points a little better, but Williams has shown some strength at the key moments in her recent matches. That has been most evident on the serve where Venus Williams has been broken just twice in four matches having dropped serve four times in her first two matches, but it also has seen Venus convert a few more break point opportunities at a better percentage than she was earlier in the tournament.

The Spaniard has not been broken in her last two matches which will certainly give her some confidence, but I don't think Venus Williams will be as loose with her play as Svetlana Kuznetsova and Magdalena Rybarikova were. It won't be easy to get into the Muguruza games if she continues to hit as big as she has been, but I am not sure she has been playing as well as the straight sets victories in her last two matches suggest.

Kuznetsova certainly had her chances in their Quarter Final where there were not many points between them, and I think Venus Williams' comfort on the grass means she may be a little more confident when the chances do come her way. Venus Williams has been very strong when facing those players outside the top ten in the World Rankings on the grass and I think the performances so far this week makes me believe the wrong player is favoured in this one.

If Muguruza continues to play way above average on the big points, then of course she is a big threat, but Venus Williams has been close to her best and I like the veteran American to keep the Williams name on the Wimbledon Champion board.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams @ 2.10 Paddy Power (0 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 44-48, - 6.58 Units (179 Units Staked, - 3.68% Yield)

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