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Thursday, 13 July 2017

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2017 (July 13th)

This feels like a tournament that is going to be one which has come really close to some strong numbers, but one that ultimately comes close, but not close enough.

Seeing Simona Halep fall as an 8-1 pick to win the Fourth Quarter in the Ladies draw was a disappointment considering how close she came to beating Johanna Konta. That coupled with both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic failing to win their Quarter of the draw despite being big favourites in their Quarter Final matches makes it tough, and even more difficult to take when you see injury cost both Murray and Djokovic.

With Angelique Kerber also out, it was down to Marin Cilic and Venus Williams to keep the outright picks alive and both still have a chance to produce some strong numbers for me. Cilic is already a winner in the Second Quarter having come in as a 4-1 shot prior to the tournament, while Venus Williams was a big price to win the tournament and has reached the Semi Final.

It won't be easy for Venus Williams when she faces home hope Johanna Konta, while Magdalena Rybarikova takes on Garbine Muguruza in the other Semi Final. Rybarikova came into the tournament way outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and is on the brink of making the Saturday Final in what has been a fairytale run and the two Semi Final matches both look decent on Thursday.

Magdalena Rybarikova + 3.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: There is no doubt that Magdalena Rybarikova is going to feel the nerves of playing in a Grand Slam Semi Final, even though the Slovakian has shown real grit throughout this fortnight. Confidence is clearly soaring for Rybarikova who has had a tremendous grass court season, although it is not a surprise that she has been set as the underdog in this one.

She had never been beyond the Third Round at any of the Grand Slams, but you would never have guessed it with the way Rybarikova has played at key moments throughout Wimbledon. The win over Karolina Pliskova shows that Rybarikova is not afraid to take on the big names either and I do think she can give Muguruza plenty to think about.

The numbers back that up with Rybarikova returning as well as anyone left in the draw and she has dealt with the big serves of Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe well enough to believe she can have success against the powerful Muguruza delivery. Rybarikova has won 40% of the return points against Pliskova and 46% against Vandeweghe, while backing that up with strong serving of her own.

Muguruza is very capable of blowing players away on the grass as a former Wimbledon Finalist, but I am not sure the Spaniard hasn't been riding her luck at times. The win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final looks like a routine one, but it would have been a different story if the latter had been as clinical with her chances as Muguruza was on the day.

The flashier shots are likely to come off the Muguruza racquet with the big hitting winners very impressive and the more memorable shots you will see. However she has been under the cosh in her last two matches and Rybarikova has shown she can take the chances when they come her way throughout the grass court season which could see her surprise by reaching the Final.

The last two matches for Muguruza can be summed up by her going 6/11 on break points converted compared with her opponents going 3/13 and I do think Rybarikova is playing well enough to keep this one close at the least. Generally Rybarikova has served very well during this tournament and that backs up her performances in pre-Wimbledon grass court events too.

With that in mind I do think Rybarikova can take a set in this one which will give her every chance of covering with the games she is being given. It will be an upset, but I think Rybarikova can beat Muguruza on Thursday in what looks a very close Semi Final as long as the Slovakian can keep her nerves under control.

Venus Williams v Johanna Konta: Anyone who has been on the outright picks that I put up prior to the tournament beginning may want to lay off some of the Venus Williams price ahead of this Semi Final. Others may just want to let the pick ride and that is going to be a decision that each individual has to make for themselves.

This might not be the ultimate test at Wimbledon it once was, but beating Venus Williams on the famous green lawns in SW19 has remained one of the toughest matches anyone can play. That is what is in front of Johanna Konta on Thursday and I have to admit I am a little surprised that the British player is favoured to win the match.

She might be a lot younger than Venus Williams, but Konta has played three really tough matches at Wimbledon already and I have to think that accumulated fatigue is going to play a part at some point. I can't see Konta continuing to win the big points as she has done with the numbers both have produced so far this fortnight and that is a key reason I believe Venus Williams will get the better of her.

Konta did beat Williams at the Miami Masters on her way to the biggest title of her career, but Williams did snap a run of three consecutive losses to Konta when beating her in the Rome Masters. Playing on the grass is also a surface on which Williams has thrived much more than Konta and I do think the American former World Number 1 has been serving at a pretty high level which gives her every chance of earning the 'upset' in this one.

As well as Konta has done to get through the draw, she has been relying on the serve to be firing and I think that is going to be tested by Venus Williams. The latter has been returning effectively throughout the tournament and nullified some of the big hitters she has faced with her strength on the grass courts and the ability Williams has shown on the return.

The Konta serve has been a serious weapon for her and she has beaten Williams enough times to believe she can do it again. Wins over the American at the Australian Open and in Miami will give her confidence, but I think Konta is perhaps not as strong on the return as Williams and accumulated fatigue as well as the build up of pressure may just be the telling factors in this one.

While the media will be dreaming of a Konta Wimbledon win forty years after Virginia Wade, I think Venus Williams will get the better of her in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Magdalena Rybarikova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Venus Williams @ 2.05 Bet Victor (0 Units)*

*Having picked Venus Williams each-way in the outright picks, I do think Venus Williams is still capable of winning this match on the numbers. However I won't be putting any units on it having Williams in the outright picks.

Wimbledon Update: 43-46 (6 Voids), - 4.24 Units (173 Units Staked, - 2.45% Yield)

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