The NBA First Round Play Off games continue this week although two of the eight First Round series are in the books as the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs have moved through to the Conference Semi Finals.
It would be a big surprise if the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors don't join those teams in the strong position they are currently in, although the big news from the first week of the Play Offs is the injury to Steph Curry. That is going to dominate the headlines in the coming days as the prognosis becomes clear for the best player on the current Champions roster and a prolonged absence may open the door for a few teams who will feel they can take advantage.
This should be another fun few days as the First Round comes to a conclusion.
Monday 25th April
The Oklahoma City will be looking to complete their First Round series on Monday while the two other games to be played will see the higher Seeded teams looking to sneak a win on the road that can set them up to complete their own series later this week.
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets Game 4 Pick: The Miami Heat blew out Charlotte in the first two games of the series, but it all changed around in Game 3 as the Hornets came out desperate to get back to 2-1. They made the adjustments in going much bigger in Game 3 than they had started the first two games, and that could be a real key to Game 4 with the Miami Heat potentially missing Hassan Whiteside.
With the big blocking Center likely sitting out in Game 4, Miami might not have a lot of answers for Al Jefferson and Charlotte will believe they can head back to South Beach back at 2-2 in this First Round series.
Erik Spoelstra won't be panicking at seeing his team completely go off the boil Offensively in Game 4 and has to believe Miami come out with more desperation about them. Finding the Offensive groove will be a key, but the Miami Heat have simply not been as effective away from home than they are in front of their own loud fans.
However I am expecting more of the same as what we saw in Game 3 with Charlotte looking to keep Miami off the boards. Defensively I do think the Hornets are hurt by the absence of Nicolas Batum, but the Under has been the predominant trend when these teams meet in Charlotte and I am going to back that to be the outcome of this one as neither team gets into the upper 90's in terms of points scored.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder may have dropped Game 2 of this First Round series, but back to back wins in Dallas have put them in firm control against the Mavericks. Another win on Monday will see the Thunder move ahead to their Conference Semi Final against the San Antonio Spurs and there has been plenty of talk of maintaining the speed they have injected into the last two games.
The one game Dallas have won was unsurprisingly the lowest scoring one of the series and the only time the Mavericks have held Oklahoma City to fewer than 100 points. They have not been able to corral both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in the last two games, although the big talking point out of Game 4 was Durant's ejection in a chippy series.
The Thunder have to make sure they are not dragged into a dogfight and instead try to show the difference in the talent available on the roster. With Deron Williams likely done for the season, Dallas have to find some scoring to complement the big efforts Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton have offered and trying to keep up with the Thunder has not been a good policy for Dallas.
This is a big spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover even though they have had a couple of big wins on the road. Somehow Dallas have to try and slow the tempo if they are going to win this, but they might have lost some heart from the way they have not just lost home court back to Oklahoma City, but lost both games to move to the brink of elimination.
While these teams tend to play hot in Dallas, the shooting has not been as good in Oklahoma City and I think a tighter game should mean fewer points all around.
LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: The gut feeling I had on Saturday turned out to be the correct call as I expect the Portland Trail Blazers to come out and play desperate. However the LA Clippers have to be feeling sick with themselves for blowing a big lead in the final few minutes of Game 3 when they allowed Portland to finish with a 15-1 run.
After the way they collapsed in the Western Conference Semi Finals last season, the Clippers are more than aware of what can happen in a series when they ease off the peddle. JJ Redick was critical of the way Game 3 was blown and I think the Clippers come out with a lot more motivation to move into a commanding lead before heading back to Los Angeles for Game 5.
Portland will feel better as they finally got the performances they expected out of CJ McCollum and Damien Lilliard, but they need more if this surprise package are going to make this a competitive series. There is little doubt the Clippers are the better team, but going back to 2-2 and heading into a best of three will give the Trail Blazers plenty of belief they can win this series.
The Clippers have won three of their last four games in Portland and they are 12-4 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer on the road. They are also 20-9 against the spread in a revenge spot and while Portland have been very good coming off a home upset, I think the Clippers will knuckle down in the Fourth Quarter and not give up a big lead while moving into a 3-1 lead in the First Round series.
Wednesday 27th April
With just days to go until I am going to be settling down, you have to guess that it is going to be very busy for me in the near future.
That might mean short posts or simply making the picks from the games to be played the rest of this week.
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: The first three games of this series had been blow out wins, but Game 4 was much closer although the Charlotte Hornets got back to 2-2 in the series. That means the pressure shifts onto the Miami Heat in this pivotal Game 5 as they look to hold onto home advantage in this tight series and try and move onto the Conference Semi Finals.
Both of the games in South Beach have been massively in favour of Miami and I think this is a team that have been much better at home than on the road. They also have to expect their players are not hindered by being in foul trouble through Game 5 as they were through Game 4 and the Heat also have plenty of Play Off experience to make the adjustments they need in this series.
This is a team that has thrived at home when playing a team with a winning record and Miami are also 14-7 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer at home. Miami have been able to cover more often than not when playing with double revenge and they have covered the last three times they have hosted the Hornets.
Of course Charlotte will look to continue to play a high level of Defense having held Miami to 85 points or fewer in the last two games, but they haven't performed as well here. I think the Heat can find a way to get back on track and I will back them to cover and win for a third time at home in the series.
Portland Trail Blazers @ LA Clippers Game 5 Pick: Once again it was a Fourth Quarter collapse that prevented the LA Clippers from stealing a game in Portland, but it has gotten much worse for them since then.
It looks like both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are out for the rest of the season and that means the Clippers are without their two best players the rest of the way. Of course it gives others the chance to step up, but the Clippers are not exactly the deepest of rosters and I think the absence of Paul and Griffin is a blow that they will not recover from.
Doc Rivers will have to bring in a Defensive shape to his team to hold Portland and try and sneak a couple of wins in this best of three series, but the layers look to be thinking along a similar line as me. That is the only reason that the Trail Blazers can be considered the favourites to win this one although I wouldn't want to back them as the road favourite here with the Clippers likely to rally around one another.
The Under has been the dominant trend in a 2-2 First Round series and it is actually 7-1 in the last eight games between these teams. I am expecting the Clippers to try and make this a low-scoring game and try and win that way especially as they can't rely on the scoring without Paul and Griffin available.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: They might have won 73 games this season, but it will meaning nothing to the Golden State Warriors unless they win the NBA Championship. When Steph Curry slipped on a wet patch during the Game 4 win over the Houston Rockets, it looked like the Warriors might be losing Curry for a prolonged period.
The MRI has come back and it looks like Curry is out for the next two weeks which could see him back for the Eastern Conference Finals. With the Clippers losing two key players for the rest of the post-season, the Warriors might be feeling confident they can handle the load in the absence of Curry until he returns and the key is to finish off the Houston Rockets who they have in a 3-1 hole.
Golden State are 1-1 without Curry in this First Round series, but only lost a game where James Harden should have been called for an Offensive foul. They effectively crushed Houston without Curry in the Game 4 win on the road and I think the Rockets don't have the same sense of belief as they did when coming back to beat the Clippers from 1-3 down in the Play Offs last season.
The Warriors have won each of their last four home games against Houston by double digits which includes a win without Curry in Game 2. I think the Rockets are looking at a roster that doesn't have the same belief and I believe Golden State go on and win this one to move into the Conference Semi Finals with a victory by ten points or more.
MY PICKS: 25/04 Charlotte-Miami Under 195.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/04 Oklahoma City-Dallas Under 205.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/04 LA Clippers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/04 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/04 LA Clippers-Portland Under 197.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/04 Golden State Warriors - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
First Round Update:
Monday, 25 April 2016
Saturday, 23 April 2016
Weekend Football Picks 2016 (April 23-25)
The Premier League and FA Cup take centre stage this weekend as we have reached the business end of the season with teams bidding for titles and trophies as well as promotion and avoiding relegation.
The title race was reignited last weekend and both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur host teams they will be expected to beat, although Leicester City have the advantage of being able to put the points on the board first.
It is also a big weekend in the North East as Newcastle United and Sunderland continue their fight against relegation and the FA Cup Final will also be set by Sunday evening as Everton, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Watford all dream of returning to Wembley Stadium on Saturday 21st May.
The last week was another good one for the picks as the month of April continues to trend in a positive direction and thus gets the season moving back to the positive after a really poor start to the season. Hopefully that can continue this weekend with the picks being made over the next three days.
Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: This game has been shifted to Saturday lunchtime to give Manchester City all the time possible to prepare for their Champions League Semi Final against Real Madrid on Tuesday. There are two ways Manchester City can get into the Champions League next season and while Manuel Pellegrini's preferred method will be through winning the competition this season, finishing in the top four is just as important.
The lead for the top four places was narrowed to 2 points during the week, but Manchester City can increase the pressure on Manchester United who are in FA Cup action this weekend.
They will be expected to do that against a Stoke City team that have conceded four times in their last couple of Premier League games. Defensively Stoke City looked a mess against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur in their last two League games and that won't pay off against Sergio Aguero who has already scored four times this past week.
Of course the white elephant in the room is the Champions League Semi Final and whether that will take away the focus of the Manchester City players. I am not sure that will be the case as this is a team that has been in good recent form and won both League games in the days before facing Paris Saint-Germain in the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
With the top four ambitions of the club, I expect Manchester City will play a strong team to make sure they can get into a position to take the three points before potentially resting players. Stoke City are conceding too many goals to look like they can keep up with Manchester City in this one and I will back the latter to win by a couple of goals this weekend.
Bournemouth v Chelsea Pick: This Premier League game features two clubs that would most likely be pretty content with the season was to end right now for differing reasons. For Chelsea it has been all about underachievement, for Bournemouth about overachievement, but both clubs have been struggling in recent weeks for motivation.
Injuries in the Chelsea squad has seen Guus Hiddink employ the full squad at his disposal which is a good learning tool for incoming manager Antonio Conte. They have lost back to back Premier League games and only the awful Aston Villa team have given Chelsea the chance for a win in recent weeks.
It is the same Aston Villa team that has provided Bournemouth with three points during a run of 3 losses in 4 Premier League games as the side have still be shipping goals at an alarming rate.
Both attacks might feel they have the edge in this League game too and I can see both defences tested again. It is very difficult picking a winner, but it seems to be a League game that should produce chances at both ends and so picking goals looks to be the better option out of the game.
The last 6 Bournemouth Premier League games have featured at least three goals and 3 of the last 4 Chelsea League games have done the same after the club were knocked out of the FA Cup Sixth Round at Everton. The layers are also aware of that so the chance of seeing goals is odds on, but I still think it is a price worth taking out of this game.
Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: The results have been a lot more positive for Newcastle United this past seven days and it has given them a real chance to avoid the drop into the Championship. Both of those games were at home this week though and 10 straight losses on their travels suggests there is still a lot for Newcastle United to do if they are going to avoid another relegation.
As good as the results have been, Newcastle United have still looked vulnerable defensively and that is a big issue for Rafa Benitez to resolve. Swansea City had their chances against Newcastle United last weekend and this is a team that has conceded three times in each of their last two away games in the Premier League at Norwich City and Southampton.
Neither of those teams can be described as high-scoring teams and the defensive work by Newcastle United in both games is not going to be good enough against a Liverpool team in really confident form.
The loss of Divock Origi is a blow as the young Belgian striker seems to be a favourite of Jurgen Klopp and has responded with goals for the team. Daniel Sturridge is hardly a poor replacement and Liverpool are a team that have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks which has to be a concern for Newcastle United as they head to Anfield.
This is a ground where Newcastle United have struggled in recent years with 9 losses in their last 10 visits and the chances Liverpool are creating and taking can expose this backline. Every point counts at this stage of the season so I expect Newcastle United to battle, but Liverpool are looking to keep the momentum going as they head into a big Europa League Semi Final and I will back them to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: When this game was picked for the television cameras it was clear it would have an impact at the top and bottom of the Premier League table. However Arsenal's title challenge has failed to materialise this season and instead they are focusing on ensuring they are back in the Champions League for another season.
That has been the recent goal for Arsene Wenger and it looks like the fans are once again becoming bored of the lack of progress being made by Arsenal. This has been a poor season for them as the FA Cup is not going to put a silver gloss on it and finishing below Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur would be a huge blow for the fans and the club.
The 2-0 win over West Brom has given Arsenal every chance of finishing in the top four, but they can't afford any slip ups here with Manchester United still pushing for one of those places. The Gunners will come into this one as the favourites to win at The Stadium of Light where they have won on their last 4 Premier League visits, but Sam Allardyce would have been preparing for this all week.
Allardyce and Wenger have often failed to be on the same page, and there is no doubt Big Sam loves to get one over the Frenchman. While Arsenal were in a League game on Thursday night, Sunderland have been preparing since Saturday afternoon and this is a team that has been tough to beat in recent weeks.
Sunderland have been creating chances and they should be able to give Arsenal some problems when going forward, although the defensive shape will be tested by an in-form Alexis Sanchez.
I have a gut feeling Sunderland might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat in this one and earn a vital three points to get them moving out of the bottom three. However I have respect for the way Arsenal have played in recent away games and I think both teams can score in this one.
With the importance of the points on offer, neither will likely settle for a draw and backing at least three goals to be scored between Sunderland and Arsenal for a third time this season is my pick.
Leicester City v Swansea City Pick: All of the news ahead of this Premier League game is surrounding Leicester City and how they are going to cope without Jamie Vardy who was sent off last weekend. That saw The Foxes drop two points and now their lead over Tottenham Hotspur is down to 5 points as the race for the Premier League title heats up, but this is far from an easy game with or without Vardy.
After watching Swansea City go down 3-0 to Newcastle United last weekend it is easy to say that this is a team that is perhaps looking ahead to the off-season. I am not sure that is the case as they had some big chances at 1-0 down and conceded twice in the last ten minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline.
Swansea City had only lost 1 of 6 games in the Premier League before last weekend and this is a team that had scored at least twice in three straight away games before that game. With the pressure building on Leicester City, I think Swansea City will have some joy in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if they created chances and scored at least once.
Claudio Ranieri has announced for the first time this season that Leicester City can win the Premier League title, but that puts pressure on his team to get forward and try and win the game. Anything less opens the door a little more for Tottenham Hotspur who may then feel they have the better of the remaining three games of the season and the stronger goal difference.
I think the layers are underestimating the chance for goals because of the Vardy absence, but both teams are likely to give this game a right go on Sunday. Swansea City away games have featured plenty of goals in recent weeks and Leicester City will likely be a little more open as they will be expected to get forward and score goals. That should lead to an entertaining game on Sunday afternoon and backing goals looks the call.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: I am not particularly impressed with the quality in the Premier League this season and while I am not one of those who thinks highly of Tottenham Hotspur, I can say they have been dealing with the title race pressure very well. This is one of the better teams in England, but I think that says more about the lack of quality through the Division than it does about how good Spurs are and that might be shown up in the Champions League next season.
With that out of the way, I will go back to crediting Tottenham Hotspur for the manner in which they are handling playing second behind Leicester City in the last two weekends. A 3-0 win over Manchester United at home and a 0-4 win at Stoke City shows that Tottenham Hotspur are not willing to go away in this title race and keeping up with Leicester City is key.
There are 5 points to make up which means dropping any points could be fatal and Tottenham Hotspur have to show they are going to take advantage of any slips Leicester City have in the Premier League.
It looks one of the better games Tottenham Hotspur have left when they host West Brom who have the look of a squad looking forward to their summer holidays. Since reaching 39 points in the Premier League, West Brom have lost 4 of 5 Premier League games including their last 2 away from home at Manchester City and Arsenal.
Tottenham Hotspur have the kind of defence that should be able to keep West Brom at bay and the goals have been coming for the home team. I have to expect Tottenham Hotspur to keep handling the pressure as effectively as they have over the last three weeks and I think they can see off West Brom.
Backing Spurs to win by a couple of goals is how I feel Monday Night Football will go and potentially Tottenham Hotspur can close the gap a little further this weekend in the tittle race.
Everton v Manchester United Pick: Both Louis Van Gaal and Roberto Martinez will be desperate for the win on Saturday which will see them ease some of the pressure that has seemingly been on them all season.
On current form it is hard to see past Manchester United earning their way to Wembley Stadium, although the side under Van Gaal have a Jekyll and Hyde personality. Sometimes you can go into a game and expect Manchester United to really get some momentum behind them and they can let you down, while Van Gaal always picks up a result when the pressure seems to be at breaking point.
That is not the case this week as many will expect Manchester United to win after seeing Everton fall apart at Anfield on Wednesday night. I also think Manchester United are the better team with Everton struggling for fit defenders and I think the pace of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford in forward areas could be very difficult for a makeshift defence to deal with.
I do have to expect Everton will have some reaction to their defeat in the Merseyside derby unless the players have lost faith in their manager. There is still enough quality in the Everton line up to give Manchester United problems as they did at Old Trafford earlier this month, but the lack of confidence might be a blow.
For all of the criticisms of Van Gaal, it has to be said the defensive organisation remains strong for the most part. Everton have scored just twice in 6 games since beating Chelsea in the Sixth Round and I think Manchester United can hold them at bay while getting forward and finding joy against this defence.
It has been a long time since Manchester United have won the FA Cup, but they look to be in a great position to do that this time around. I do think they have the confidence to find their way past this Everton team and push Roberto Martinez closer to the exit door at Goodison Park and I will back Manchester United at odds against.
Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: It is going to be interesting to see how the Crystal Palace and Watford players respond in this FA Cup Semi Final having struggled in the Premier League since booking their place at Wembley Stadium. It is hard to turn on the form when you need it, but the edge in that regards might have to be given to Crystal Palace who have picked up points in recent games to get themselves out of relegation trouble.
Both teams will be desperate to put an exclamation point on the season by getting into the FA Cup Final and winning this competition would be a huge achievement for either club.
With that goal in mind and how much it would mean to both clubs I can see this being a tight game as neither team will want to make a mistake that costs them a place in the Final.
There is enough quality in both starting elevens to make this a very entertaining game, but the fear of losing might encompass the game. That could see both Alan Pardew and Quique Sanchez Flores make sure their team is set up to be tough to beat and goals might actually be at a premium on Sunday.
A small interest on there being one goal or fewer looks to be the call in this one and I will back that to happen.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Watford Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Season 2015/16: 129-168-2, - 8.49 Units (652 Units Staked, - 1.30% Yield)
The title race was reignited last weekend and both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur host teams they will be expected to beat, although Leicester City have the advantage of being able to put the points on the board first.
It is also a big weekend in the North East as Newcastle United and Sunderland continue their fight against relegation and the FA Cup Final will also be set by Sunday evening as Everton, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Watford all dream of returning to Wembley Stadium on Saturday 21st May.
The last week was another good one for the picks as the month of April continues to trend in a positive direction and thus gets the season moving back to the positive after a really poor start to the season. Hopefully that can continue this weekend with the picks being made over the next three days.
Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: This game has been shifted to Saturday lunchtime to give Manchester City all the time possible to prepare for their Champions League Semi Final against Real Madrid on Tuesday. There are two ways Manchester City can get into the Champions League next season and while Manuel Pellegrini's preferred method will be through winning the competition this season, finishing in the top four is just as important.
The lead for the top four places was narrowed to 2 points during the week, but Manchester City can increase the pressure on Manchester United who are in FA Cup action this weekend.
They will be expected to do that against a Stoke City team that have conceded four times in their last couple of Premier League games. Defensively Stoke City looked a mess against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur in their last two League games and that won't pay off against Sergio Aguero who has already scored four times this past week.
Of course the white elephant in the room is the Champions League Semi Final and whether that will take away the focus of the Manchester City players. I am not sure that will be the case as this is a team that has been in good recent form and won both League games in the days before facing Paris Saint-Germain in the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
With the top four ambitions of the club, I expect Manchester City will play a strong team to make sure they can get into a position to take the three points before potentially resting players. Stoke City are conceding too many goals to look like they can keep up with Manchester City in this one and I will back the latter to win by a couple of goals this weekend.
Bournemouth v Chelsea Pick: This Premier League game features two clubs that would most likely be pretty content with the season was to end right now for differing reasons. For Chelsea it has been all about underachievement, for Bournemouth about overachievement, but both clubs have been struggling in recent weeks for motivation.
Injuries in the Chelsea squad has seen Guus Hiddink employ the full squad at his disposal which is a good learning tool for incoming manager Antonio Conte. They have lost back to back Premier League games and only the awful Aston Villa team have given Chelsea the chance for a win in recent weeks.
It is the same Aston Villa team that has provided Bournemouth with three points during a run of 3 losses in 4 Premier League games as the side have still be shipping goals at an alarming rate.
Both attacks might feel they have the edge in this League game too and I can see both defences tested again. It is very difficult picking a winner, but it seems to be a League game that should produce chances at both ends and so picking goals looks to be the better option out of the game.
The last 6 Bournemouth Premier League games have featured at least three goals and 3 of the last 4 Chelsea League games have done the same after the club were knocked out of the FA Cup Sixth Round at Everton. The layers are also aware of that so the chance of seeing goals is odds on, but I still think it is a price worth taking out of this game.
Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: The results have been a lot more positive for Newcastle United this past seven days and it has given them a real chance to avoid the drop into the Championship. Both of those games were at home this week though and 10 straight losses on their travels suggests there is still a lot for Newcastle United to do if they are going to avoid another relegation.
As good as the results have been, Newcastle United have still looked vulnerable defensively and that is a big issue for Rafa Benitez to resolve. Swansea City had their chances against Newcastle United last weekend and this is a team that has conceded three times in each of their last two away games in the Premier League at Norwich City and Southampton.
Neither of those teams can be described as high-scoring teams and the defensive work by Newcastle United in both games is not going to be good enough against a Liverpool team in really confident form.
The loss of Divock Origi is a blow as the young Belgian striker seems to be a favourite of Jurgen Klopp and has responded with goals for the team. Daniel Sturridge is hardly a poor replacement and Liverpool are a team that have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks which has to be a concern for Newcastle United as they head to Anfield.
This is a ground where Newcastle United have struggled in recent years with 9 losses in their last 10 visits and the chances Liverpool are creating and taking can expose this backline. Every point counts at this stage of the season so I expect Newcastle United to battle, but Liverpool are looking to keep the momentum going as they head into a big Europa League Semi Final and I will back them to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: When this game was picked for the television cameras it was clear it would have an impact at the top and bottom of the Premier League table. However Arsenal's title challenge has failed to materialise this season and instead they are focusing on ensuring they are back in the Champions League for another season.
That has been the recent goal for Arsene Wenger and it looks like the fans are once again becoming bored of the lack of progress being made by Arsenal. This has been a poor season for them as the FA Cup is not going to put a silver gloss on it and finishing below Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur would be a huge blow for the fans and the club.
The 2-0 win over West Brom has given Arsenal every chance of finishing in the top four, but they can't afford any slip ups here with Manchester United still pushing for one of those places. The Gunners will come into this one as the favourites to win at The Stadium of Light where they have won on their last 4 Premier League visits, but Sam Allardyce would have been preparing for this all week.
Allardyce and Wenger have often failed to be on the same page, and there is no doubt Big Sam loves to get one over the Frenchman. While Arsenal were in a League game on Thursday night, Sunderland have been preparing since Saturday afternoon and this is a team that has been tough to beat in recent weeks.
Sunderland have been creating chances and they should be able to give Arsenal some problems when going forward, although the defensive shape will be tested by an in-form Alexis Sanchez.
I have a gut feeling Sunderland might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat in this one and earn a vital three points to get them moving out of the bottom three. However I have respect for the way Arsenal have played in recent away games and I think both teams can score in this one.
With the importance of the points on offer, neither will likely settle for a draw and backing at least three goals to be scored between Sunderland and Arsenal for a third time this season is my pick.
Leicester City v Swansea City Pick: All of the news ahead of this Premier League game is surrounding Leicester City and how they are going to cope without Jamie Vardy who was sent off last weekend. That saw The Foxes drop two points and now their lead over Tottenham Hotspur is down to 5 points as the race for the Premier League title heats up, but this is far from an easy game with or without Vardy.
After watching Swansea City go down 3-0 to Newcastle United last weekend it is easy to say that this is a team that is perhaps looking ahead to the off-season. I am not sure that is the case as they had some big chances at 1-0 down and conceded twice in the last ten minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline.
Swansea City had only lost 1 of 6 games in the Premier League before last weekend and this is a team that had scored at least twice in three straight away games before that game. With the pressure building on Leicester City, I think Swansea City will have some joy in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if they created chances and scored at least once.
Claudio Ranieri has announced for the first time this season that Leicester City can win the Premier League title, but that puts pressure on his team to get forward and try and win the game. Anything less opens the door a little more for Tottenham Hotspur who may then feel they have the better of the remaining three games of the season and the stronger goal difference.
I think the layers are underestimating the chance for goals because of the Vardy absence, but both teams are likely to give this game a right go on Sunday. Swansea City away games have featured plenty of goals in recent weeks and Leicester City will likely be a little more open as they will be expected to get forward and score goals. That should lead to an entertaining game on Sunday afternoon and backing goals looks the call.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: I am not particularly impressed with the quality in the Premier League this season and while I am not one of those who thinks highly of Tottenham Hotspur, I can say they have been dealing with the title race pressure very well. This is one of the better teams in England, but I think that says more about the lack of quality through the Division than it does about how good Spurs are and that might be shown up in the Champions League next season.
With that out of the way, I will go back to crediting Tottenham Hotspur for the manner in which they are handling playing second behind Leicester City in the last two weekends. A 3-0 win over Manchester United at home and a 0-4 win at Stoke City shows that Tottenham Hotspur are not willing to go away in this title race and keeping up with Leicester City is key.
There are 5 points to make up which means dropping any points could be fatal and Tottenham Hotspur have to show they are going to take advantage of any slips Leicester City have in the Premier League.
It looks one of the better games Tottenham Hotspur have left when they host West Brom who have the look of a squad looking forward to their summer holidays. Since reaching 39 points in the Premier League, West Brom have lost 4 of 5 Premier League games including their last 2 away from home at Manchester City and Arsenal.
Tottenham Hotspur have the kind of defence that should be able to keep West Brom at bay and the goals have been coming for the home team. I have to expect Tottenham Hotspur to keep handling the pressure as effectively as they have over the last three weeks and I think they can see off West Brom.
Backing Spurs to win by a couple of goals is how I feel Monday Night Football will go and potentially Tottenham Hotspur can close the gap a little further this weekend in the tittle race.
Everton v Manchester United Pick: Both Louis Van Gaal and Roberto Martinez will be desperate for the win on Saturday which will see them ease some of the pressure that has seemingly been on them all season.
On current form it is hard to see past Manchester United earning their way to Wembley Stadium, although the side under Van Gaal have a Jekyll and Hyde personality. Sometimes you can go into a game and expect Manchester United to really get some momentum behind them and they can let you down, while Van Gaal always picks up a result when the pressure seems to be at breaking point.
That is not the case this week as many will expect Manchester United to win after seeing Everton fall apart at Anfield on Wednesday night. I also think Manchester United are the better team with Everton struggling for fit defenders and I think the pace of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford in forward areas could be very difficult for a makeshift defence to deal with.
I do have to expect Everton will have some reaction to their defeat in the Merseyside derby unless the players have lost faith in their manager. There is still enough quality in the Everton line up to give Manchester United problems as they did at Old Trafford earlier this month, but the lack of confidence might be a blow.
For all of the criticisms of Van Gaal, it has to be said the defensive organisation remains strong for the most part. Everton have scored just twice in 6 games since beating Chelsea in the Sixth Round and I think Manchester United can hold them at bay while getting forward and finding joy against this defence.
It has been a long time since Manchester United have won the FA Cup, but they look to be in a great position to do that this time around. I do think they have the confidence to find their way past this Everton team and push Roberto Martinez closer to the exit door at Goodison Park and I will back Manchester United at odds against.
Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: It is going to be interesting to see how the Crystal Palace and Watford players respond in this FA Cup Semi Final having struggled in the Premier League since booking their place at Wembley Stadium. It is hard to turn on the form when you need it, but the edge in that regards might have to be given to Crystal Palace who have picked up points in recent games to get themselves out of relegation trouble.
Both teams will be desperate to put an exclamation point on the season by getting into the FA Cup Final and winning this competition would be a huge achievement for either club.
With that goal in mind and how much it would mean to both clubs I can see this being a tight game as neither team will want to make a mistake that costs them a place in the Final.
There is enough quality in both starting elevens to make this a very entertaining game, but the fear of losing might encompass the game. That could see both Alan Pardew and Quique Sanchez Flores make sure their team is set up to be tough to beat and goals might actually be at a premium on Sunday.
A small interest on there being one goal or fewer looks to be the call in this one and I will back that to happen.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Watford Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
April Update: 14-8, + 10.38 Units (44 Units Staked, + 23.59% Yield)
March Final: 22-17-2, + 9.06 Units (80 Units Staked, + 11.33% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
March Final: 22-17-2, + 9.06 Units (80 Units Staked, + 11.33% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)
December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 129-168-2, - 8.49 Units (652 Units Staked, - 1.30% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 23rd)
I couldn't really have asked for much more from the tennis picks on Friday than what I got- there were five picks made, and all five came in as winners.
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
Thursday, 21 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 22nd)
The tournaments in Barcelona, Bucharest, Istanbul and Stuttgart have all reached the Quarter Finals on Friday and there are plenty of matches that will be played through the day.
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
Wednesday, 20 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 21st)
It was a tough day for the picks on Wednesday as two players failed to make the cover in final set deciders with one winning outright and the other going down to a narrow loss.
Thankfully Angelique Kerber came back from a set down to beat Annika Beck with enough space to cover the spread and at least prevent it being a total disaster of a day.
The tournament in Bucharest was affected by the rain in the area meaning none of the matches scheduled for the day got to start and the entire Second Round will be played on Thursday. The remainder of the week at that tournament at least looks better from a weather front and those matches picked on Wednesday and the ones I have picked from Thursday should all be completed by Thursday evening.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There is only a few months that separates these players in terms of age and there are only a few places that separate them in the World Rankings. However Damir Dzumhur might have a little more upside than Marco Cecchinato, although the latter has produced the more convincing win this week.
This should be a fascinating Second Round match where I give the slight edge to Dzumhur who had a fantastic week in Monte Carlo before only just being beaten by Milos Raonic. That was a match that Dzumhur will feel he could have won if he was just a little more solid at the big moments in the third set, but he has to take confidence away from that run which should see an improved World Ranking.
The same impact on the main Tour is yet to be made by Cecchinato although the Italian is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts when at the Challenger level. He will likely feel he is the better clay court player in this one, but I am not convinced that is the case and Dzumhur could have the edge in the contest if he is able to produce a high percentage of first serves.
In their two previous matches on the Tour, Dzumhur has won both without dropping a set, including earlier this season. However both have been on the hard courts and Dzumhur has to be at his best to get the better of Cecchinato in this one, although I expect he can do that after a few breaks of serve for both players.
I expect Dzumhur can move through to the Quarter Final after a 75, 64 win in this one.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: It is a little weird to write this, but Fernando Verdasco has dropped to Number 86 in the World Rankings after a really inconsistent twelve months. That is still significantly higher than Radu Albot who is in the mid-100's in the World Ranking, but Verdasco would be expecting to improve his World Ranking over the next few months.
When you look back at the results, Verdasco has only won back to back matches in the same tournament twice since Wimbledon which is a big reason he has dropped in the World Rankings. Verdasco didn't have the best of clay court seasons either so this is an opportunity for him to pick up some vital Ranking points to get his position moving in the right direction.
Radu Albot will look for his serve to set up the points in this one, but he won't have faced too many players with the firepower that Verdasco can produce when he is working at top form. It is hard to trust that happening on a day by day basis, but Verdasco has to be encouraged by the way Nicolas Almagro dominated Albot when they met in Casablanca earlier this month.
As long as Verdasco remains focused on the task at hand and is not making a silly amount of unforced errors, he should have the better of this contest. The Spaniard can work his way through to a 63, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.94 Units (10 Units Staked, - 29.4% Yield)
Thankfully Angelique Kerber came back from a set down to beat Annika Beck with enough space to cover the spread and at least prevent it being a total disaster of a day.
The tournament in Bucharest was affected by the rain in the area meaning none of the matches scheduled for the day got to start and the entire Second Round will be played on Thursday. The remainder of the week at that tournament at least looks better from a weather front and those matches picked on Wednesday and the ones I have picked from Thursday should all be completed by Thursday evening.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There is only a few months that separates these players in terms of age and there are only a few places that separate them in the World Rankings. However Damir Dzumhur might have a little more upside than Marco Cecchinato, although the latter has produced the more convincing win this week.
This should be a fascinating Second Round match where I give the slight edge to Dzumhur who had a fantastic week in Monte Carlo before only just being beaten by Milos Raonic. That was a match that Dzumhur will feel he could have won if he was just a little more solid at the big moments in the third set, but he has to take confidence away from that run which should see an improved World Ranking.
The same impact on the main Tour is yet to be made by Cecchinato although the Italian is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts when at the Challenger level. He will likely feel he is the better clay court player in this one, but I am not convinced that is the case and Dzumhur could have the edge in the contest if he is able to produce a high percentage of first serves.
In their two previous matches on the Tour, Dzumhur has won both without dropping a set, including earlier this season. However both have been on the hard courts and Dzumhur has to be at his best to get the better of Cecchinato in this one, although I expect he can do that after a few breaks of serve for both players.
I expect Dzumhur can move through to the Quarter Final after a 75, 64 win in this one.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: It is a little weird to write this, but Fernando Verdasco has dropped to Number 86 in the World Rankings after a really inconsistent twelve months. That is still significantly higher than Radu Albot who is in the mid-100's in the World Ranking, but Verdasco would be expecting to improve his World Ranking over the next few months.
When you look back at the results, Verdasco has only won back to back matches in the same tournament twice since Wimbledon which is a big reason he has dropped in the World Rankings. Verdasco didn't have the best of clay court seasons either so this is an opportunity for him to pick up some vital Ranking points to get his position moving in the right direction.
Radu Albot will look for his serve to set up the points in this one, but he won't have faced too many players with the firepower that Verdasco can produce when he is working at top form. It is hard to trust that happening on a day by day basis, but Verdasco has to be encouraged by the way Nicolas Almagro dominated Albot when they met in Casablanca earlier this month.
As long as Verdasco remains focused on the task at hand and is not making a silly amount of unforced errors, he should have the better of this contest. The Spaniard can work his way through to a 63, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.94 Units (10 Units Staked, - 29.4% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 20th)
The first day of picks from the tournaments being played this week was a mixed bag with one pick coming in as a winner and the other falling short.
There wasn't a lot that interested me on Tuesday, but on Wednesday there looks to be more options to go with as I look for the week to really get going from here.
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: This looks to be a match between someone who is very comfortable on the clay courts against another player who has perhaps a surprisingly good record at the Challenger level. Paolo Lorenzi is the favourite in this match, but Taro Daniel can't be underestimated and I think it could be a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.
There is reasons you can make to back either player, but for Lorenzi is the more solid player at this level on this surface and I expect he can make that experience count. The Italian doesn't have the most intimidating serve with it being little more than a rally starter, but the same can be said for Daniel and that is the reason I think there will be a few breaks of serve.
It is hard to trust a player that lost to Tommy Paul on the clay, but that defeat for Lorenzi came in Houston where the clay courts definitely play in a much more unusual manner than the majority of those around the world. His First Round win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was much more impressive and I do think Lorenzi is the better player in this match.
Lorenzi will need to serve semi-effectively to keep Daniel from building any confidence, but doing that should give him a chance to come through in two tough sets with a 64, 64 scoreline behind him.
Guido Pella - 2.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: These players have already met once on the Tour this season in Rio de Janeiro when Guido Pella had to come from a set down to see off Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Both players are very comfortable on the clay courts, although this time Gimeno-Traver may be looking for the European clay to give him an advantage over Argentinian Pella who won on the South American clay.
Neither player has really had a strong clay court season since the move across to Europe and both have suffered disappointing early losses. However both have played well in Bucharest to get through to the Second Round, although the more impressive win was Pella's.
He will need to serve effectively from the left handed stance to keep Gimeno-Traver from getting too comfortable in the match and it would be a surprise if both the Spaniard and Pella don't suffer some breaks of serve. While it is difficult holding serve consistently on the slower surfaces, both Pella and Gimeno-Traver know they need to protect the first serve to give them the best chance of progressing through to the Quarter Finals.
I do think Pella is more likely to do that and I do think he can come through this one with a 75, 64 kind of win.
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It hasn't been the best season for Ekaterina Makarova but the run at the Miami Masters might have given her the confidence to take into the clay court season. The tournament in Stuttgart is a tough one from the very opening match so Makarova will need to be at her best when she faces Roberta Vinci.
Their previous matches have been competitive with Makarova winning three and Vinci winning two of those. It is the Russian who won their one previous match on the clay courts, while Vinci will have to pick herself up from two very one-sided losses to the Spanish team at the Fed Cup.
There has been a title win for Vinci this season, but generally it has been an inconsistent season for the Italian who had a memorable run to the US Open Final last season. She is obviously very happy on the clay courts being from Italy, but this is a tough match up for her with the obvious power advantage that Makarova has.
Makarova is also a lefty which means she will be attacking the weaker Vinci wing- the Italian relies on a sliced backhand which should allow Makarova to dominate the points and I will back her to win this in three sets and get over this number.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: It might be Lucie Safarova who is the higher Ranked player in this contest, but she has not been in the kind of form to take on compatriot Karolina Pliskova in this contest in Stuttgart. In fact Safarova has lost all four matches she has played in 2016 after a delayed start to the season and she is yet to win a set which is going to be tough to change against Pliskova.
I don't think there is any doubting that Pliskova is better on the faster surfaces as her movement is not the best around the court and can be exposed on the clay courts. However the serve should still be effective on the indoor clay courts and Pliskova has had some positive results on the surface which should mean she can see off Safarova.
It has to be a matter of time before Safarova turns her form around, but it could be a big test for her in this one. Some of the losses that Safarova has suffered have been really disappointing and that has to have knocked the confidence to a level that Pliskova can take advantage of.
Not being able to protect her serve as she would normally like is an issue for Safarova and I think Pliskova will earn enough cheap points to lead to a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: Coming off the Australian Open win has been tough for Angelique Kerber, but there have been signs she is coming to terms with the target on her back. The German will meet compatriot Annika Beck in the Second Round here in Stuttgart and Kerber should be full of confidence after two impressive wins in Fed Cup action.
Playing on the clay should suit Kerber who also reached the Semi Final in Charleston before pulling out with an injury, and I expect she will be too good for Beck. The latter had an impressive win in the First Round, and had some good results on clay last season, but Beck has to really raise her level to stay with someone as good as Kerber.
At the Australian Open, Kerber beat Beck 64, 60 but that was a closer match than the scoreline suggested with Kerber and Beck both struggling to hold serve at times.
That could easily occur here again, but Kerber should be able to work her way through to break points more often than Beck. That should help her produce a 64, 62 win in this one and move into the next Round.
Guido Pella - 2.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: These players have already met once on the Tour this season in Rio de Janeiro when Guido Pella had to come from a set down to see off Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Both players are very comfortable on the clay courts, although this time Gimeno-Traver may be looking for the European clay to give him an advantage over Argentinian Pella who won on the South American clay.
Neither player has really had a strong clay court season since the move across to Europe and both have suffered disappointing early losses. However both have played well in Bucharest to get through to the Second Round, although the more impressive win was Pella's.
He will need to serve effectively from the left handed stance to keep Gimeno-Traver from getting too comfortable in the match and it would be a surprise if both the Spaniard and Pella don't suffer some breaks of serve. While it is difficult holding serve consistently on the slower surfaces, both Pella and Gimeno-Traver know they need to protect the first serve to give them the best chance of progressing through to the Quarter Finals.
I do think Pella is more likely to do that and I do think he can come through this one with a 75, 64 kind of win.
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It hasn't been the best season for Ekaterina Makarova but the run at the Miami Masters might have given her the confidence to take into the clay court season. The tournament in Stuttgart is a tough one from the very opening match so Makarova will need to be at her best when she faces Roberta Vinci.
Their previous matches have been competitive with Makarova winning three and Vinci winning two of those. It is the Russian who won their one previous match on the clay courts, while Vinci will have to pick herself up from two very one-sided losses to the Spanish team at the Fed Cup.
There has been a title win for Vinci this season, but generally it has been an inconsistent season for the Italian who had a memorable run to the US Open Final last season. She is obviously very happy on the clay courts being from Italy, but this is a tough match up for her with the obvious power advantage that Makarova has.
Makarova is also a lefty which means she will be attacking the weaker Vinci wing- the Italian relies on a sliced backhand which should allow Makarova to dominate the points and I will back her to win this in three sets and get over this number.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: It might be Lucie Safarova who is the higher Ranked player in this contest, but she has not been in the kind of form to take on compatriot Karolina Pliskova in this contest in Stuttgart. In fact Safarova has lost all four matches she has played in 2016 after a delayed start to the season and she is yet to win a set which is going to be tough to change against Pliskova.
I don't think there is any doubting that Pliskova is better on the faster surfaces as her movement is not the best around the court and can be exposed on the clay courts. However the serve should still be effective on the indoor clay courts and Pliskova has had some positive results on the surface which should mean she can see off Safarova.
It has to be a matter of time before Safarova turns her form around, but it could be a big test for her in this one. Some of the losses that Safarova has suffered have been really disappointing and that has to have knocked the confidence to a level that Pliskova can take advantage of.
Not being able to protect her serve as she would normally like is an issue for Safarova and I think Pliskova will earn enough cheap points to lead to a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: Coming off the Australian Open win has been tough for Angelique Kerber, but there have been signs she is coming to terms with the target on her back. The German will meet compatriot Annika Beck in the Second Round here in Stuttgart and Kerber should be full of confidence after two impressive wins in Fed Cup action.
Playing on the clay should suit Kerber who also reached the Semi Final in Charleston before pulling out with an injury, and I expect she will be too good for Beck. The latter had an impressive win in the First Round, and had some good results on clay last season, but Beck has to really raise her level to stay with someone as good as Kerber.
At the Australian Open, Kerber beat Beck 64, 60 but that was a closer match than the scoreline suggested with Kerber and Beck both struggling to hold serve at times.
That could easily occur here again, but Kerber should be able to work her way through to break points more often than Beck. That should help her produce a 64, 62 win in this one and move into the next Round.
MY PICKS: Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guide Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Guide Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Tuesday, 19 April 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (April 19-21)
The Premier League looks to be hotting up at the top and bottom of the table after the weekend results which have reignited the title race as well as the relegation one. This week is a 'make up' week for a number of teams who had games in hand and could have a big impact when it comes to the top four and the bottom three in the League table which should keep the neutrals intrigued over the next three days.
This weekend is another which has seen the League schedule disrupted thanks to the four teams who are featuring in the FA Cup Semi Final, but the focus for most will be on this week's Premier League games first.
Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: This is a game that will have big implications at the top and bottom of the Premier League and both Newcastle United and Manchester City will be desperate for the three points. The win for Newcastle United over Swansea City on Saturday will give the team and The Toon Army plenty of confidence, but they have to be better defensively to avoid a defeat.
The 3-0 scoreline looks a comfortable day for Newcastle United, but that doesn't tell the full story when it comes to the chances Swansea City had with the game at 1-0. Those chances will be taken by players in from like Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and Manchester City look to be a team rounding into form at the right time to avoid missing a Champions League place.
Manchester City had their own 3-0 win on Saturday as they impressively dismissed Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and seven goals in their last couple of away games in the Premier League shows the confidence this team has.
They have also loved visiting St James' Park in recent years with their last six away games at this ground ending with Manchester City wins by at least two goals each time. With the way they are performing in front of goal, Manchester City should have the chances to get on the front foot in this one and I do think they are able to come through and take away the three points.
It should be quite a test for Manchester City if Newcastle United are encouraged by their fans after the win on Saturday. However it is one I think they can come through with some confidence and I think Manchester City cover the Asian Handicap.
West Ham United v Watford Pick: If this game was played over the weekend, you would think it would be a tough one for West Ham United against a Watford team that have made life difficult for some teams. However, the midweek fixture means it is likely that this one means a lot more to West Ham United and I think they can win with something to spare.
There is no doubt that the Watford attention has shifted to the FA Cup Semi Final now they have reached the 40 point mark in the Premier League. It has already been announced that changes will be made to the starting eleven for this one as they focus on that game on Sunday and West Ham United are playing well enough to take advantage.
Slaven Bilic will be hoping his team can at least defend better than they have been in recent games which has cost his team a number of points. He will also be hoping for better refereeing decisions as West Ham United try and exert some pressure on those teams in the top four of the Premier League table.
West Ham United score plenty of goals though and I think they can give this Watford team a lot of problems through the contest. There will be players in the away line up who will be hoping to persuade their manager they deserve a start in the Cup Semi Final, but the motivation is all on the side of West Ham United and I expect that will show up on Wednesday.
It hasn't been too often that West Ham United have won by a comfortable margin this season, but I am looking for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one as they move to within 4 points of Arsenal in the top four.
Liverpool v Everton Pick: Both Liverpool and Everton have a number of injuries in their squad going into the final Merseyside derby of the season, but the fans won't be looking for excuses as to why their team did not perform. The bigger factor might be the FA Cup Semi Final that Everton are due to play on Saturday against Manchester United and that could mean Roberto Martinez takes no risks with his big players.
It is a big risk for Martinez personally because the fans are already disillusioned with his time as manager of the club as Everton have fallen off the standards set by David Moyes. Winning the Cup might relieve some of the pressure on Martinez, but basically rolling over for Liverpool and then losing to Manchester United in the Semi Final might mean curtains for him as manager here in the summer.
That means Martinez has to play a fine balancing act, while Jurgen Klopp can look to keep the momentum behind his team. Liverpool have shown some real determination in recent games, no more so than when coming back to beat Borussia Dortmund in the Europa League Quarter Final, and I think the momentum is firmly behind them.
However they can't take Everton for granted as they have been very difficult to beat away from home in the League all season. On the other hand, Everton look a team riddled by knocks and injuries and a much changed team might struggle to make the impact their fans will be hoping for at Anfield.
It makes it hard to see anything other than a home win in this one and the layers have been shortening the Liverpool price ever since the weekend games were in the books. I will back the home team to win this live TV offering from Wednesday night and stay on track for a place in Europe through their League position.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: The rollercoaster of performances under Louis Van Gaal continued for Manchester United as they struggled to see off Aston Villa at Old Trafford following a very strong performance at West Ham United days earlier. The important factor was that Manchester United did win as they can't afford any more slip ups when it comes to trying to finish in the top four in the Premier League table.
That looks to be the deciding factor in whether Louis Van Gaal is given an opportunity to see out his final year of his contract as manager. Even winning the FA Cup won't be enough on its own and the pressure is on Manchester United to earn the three points and stay with the two teams above them.
It might be a good time for Manchester United to run into Crystal Palace who have been earning points in recent games to keep them out of the relegation battle developing behind them. Those points have meant Alan Pardew is confident enough to make changes to his team as he focuses on the FA Cup Semi Final that his side are playing in on Sunday.
While the fringe players will be looking to make a statement of their form to stake a claim for a FA Cup Semi Final spot, it also means players are perhaps unsure of tackles to avoid suspensions. I think Crystal Palace would take a point from this game now and I expect they will look to defend through the game to earn that point.
That should mean Manchester United dominate the possession but the key will be finding the breakthrough to stay with the top four. I think a stronger Manchester United team than the one Crystal Palace will send out can do that and they can then look to their strong defensive record at Old Trafford as helping them earn the three points.
Backing Manchester United to win a third straight game at Old Trafford without conceding is the call at odds against.
Arsenal v West Brom Pick: It has to be considered another disappointing season for Arsenal who might not have too many better chances to mount a successful title challenge as they had this season. Once again they have gotten into the second half of the season and then fallen away and now the fear has to be that Arsenal might fall out of the top four with Manchester United potentially breathing down their neck.
The boo boys were out in force at the end of Arsenal's 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace but it might be a more positive evening for them on Thursday against West Brom. While Crystal Palace have been earning positive results, West Brom have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and the players might be looking forward to the end of the season already.
This is not a ground that West Brom have enjoyed playing at in recent seasons and they were hammered here 4-1 last season, while you have to expect Arsenal will have a response to the result on Sunday. In all honesty they should never have been stuck at 1-0 when Crystal Palace scored their late equaliser and more composure in the final third might have led to a fairly comfortable Arsenal win.
Arsenal do have goals in their side once they get into a free flowing mode and being out of the title race might just loosen their players up as it has in previous years. There might be some pressure on them if both Manchester City and Manchester United win their League games on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, but Arsenal should take advantage of a West Brom team playing out the string.
I think Arsenal will be too good on the day and I believe they win this by at least two goals.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Season 2015/16: 129-168-2, - 8.49 Units (652 Units Staked, - 1.30% Yield)
This weekend is another which has seen the League schedule disrupted thanks to the four teams who are featuring in the FA Cup Semi Final, but the focus for most will be on this week's Premier League games first.
Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: This is a game that will have big implications at the top and bottom of the Premier League and both Newcastle United and Manchester City will be desperate for the three points. The win for Newcastle United over Swansea City on Saturday will give the team and The Toon Army plenty of confidence, but they have to be better defensively to avoid a defeat.
The 3-0 scoreline looks a comfortable day for Newcastle United, but that doesn't tell the full story when it comes to the chances Swansea City had with the game at 1-0. Those chances will be taken by players in from like Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and Manchester City look to be a team rounding into form at the right time to avoid missing a Champions League place.
Manchester City had their own 3-0 win on Saturday as they impressively dismissed Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and seven goals in their last couple of away games in the Premier League shows the confidence this team has.
They have also loved visiting St James' Park in recent years with their last six away games at this ground ending with Manchester City wins by at least two goals each time. With the way they are performing in front of goal, Manchester City should have the chances to get on the front foot in this one and I do think they are able to come through and take away the three points.
It should be quite a test for Manchester City if Newcastle United are encouraged by their fans after the win on Saturday. However it is one I think they can come through with some confidence and I think Manchester City cover the Asian Handicap.
West Ham United v Watford Pick: If this game was played over the weekend, you would think it would be a tough one for West Ham United against a Watford team that have made life difficult for some teams. However, the midweek fixture means it is likely that this one means a lot more to West Ham United and I think they can win with something to spare.
There is no doubt that the Watford attention has shifted to the FA Cup Semi Final now they have reached the 40 point mark in the Premier League. It has already been announced that changes will be made to the starting eleven for this one as they focus on that game on Sunday and West Ham United are playing well enough to take advantage.
Slaven Bilic will be hoping his team can at least defend better than they have been in recent games which has cost his team a number of points. He will also be hoping for better refereeing decisions as West Ham United try and exert some pressure on those teams in the top four of the Premier League table.
West Ham United score plenty of goals though and I think they can give this Watford team a lot of problems through the contest. There will be players in the away line up who will be hoping to persuade their manager they deserve a start in the Cup Semi Final, but the motivation is all on the side of West Ham United and I expect that will show up on Wednesday.
It hasn't been too often that West Ham United have won by a comfortable margin this season, but I am looking for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one as they move to within 4 points of Arsenal in the top four.
Liverpool v Everton Pick: Both Liverpool and Everton have a number of injuries in their squad going into the final Merseyside derby of the season, but the fans won't be looking for excuses as to why their team did not perform. The bigger factor might be the FA Cup Semi Final that Everton are due to play on Saturday against Manchester United and that could mean Roberto Martinez takes no risks with his big players.
It is a big risk for Martinez personally because the fans are already disillusioned with his time as manager of the club as Everton have fallen off the standards set by David Moyes. Winning the Cup might relieve some of the pressure on Martinez, but basically rolling over for Liverpool and then losing to Manchester United in the Semi Final might mean curtains for him as manager here in the summer.
That means Martinez has to play a fine balancing act, while Jurgen Klopp can look to keep the momentum behind his team. Liverpool have shown some real determination in recent games, no more so than when coming back to beat Borussia Dortmund in the Europa League Quarter Final, and I think the momentum is firmly behind them.
However they can't take Everton for granted as they have been very difficult to beat away from home in the League all season. On the other hand, Everton look a team riddled by knocks and injuries and a much changed team might struggle to make the impact their fans will be hoping for at Anfield.
It makes it hard to see anything other than a home win in this one and the layers have been shortening the Liverpool price ever since the weekend games were in the books. I will back the home team to win this live TV offering from Wednesday night and stay on track for a place in Europe through their League position.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: The rollercoaster of performances under Louis Van Gaal continued for Manchester United as they struggled to see off Aston Villa at Old Trafford following a very strong performance at West Ham United days earlier. The important factor was that Manchester United did win as they can't afford any more slip ups when it comes to trying to finish in the top four in the Premier League table.
That looks to be the deciding factor in whether Louis Van Gaal is given an opportunity to see out his final year of his contract as manager. Even winning the FA Cup won't be enough on its own and the pressure is on Manchester United to earn the three points and stay with the two teams above them.
It might be a good time for Manchester United to run into Crystal Palace who have been earning points in recent games to keep them out of the relegation battle developing behind them. Those points have meant Alan Pardew is confident enough to make changes to his team as he focuses on the FA Cup Semi Final that his side are playing in on Sunday.
While the fringe players will be looking to make a statement of their form to stake a claim for a FA Cup Semi Final spot, it also means players are perhaps unsure of tackles to avoid suspensions. I think Crystal Palace would take a point from this game now and I expect they will look to defend through the game to earn that point.
That should mean Manchester United dominate the possession but the key will be finding the breakthrough to stay with the top four. I think a stronger Manchester United team than the one Crystal Palace will send out can do that and they can then look to their strong defensive record at Old Trafford as helping them earn the three points.
Backing Manchester United to win a third straight game at Old Trafford without conceding is the call at odds against.
Arsenal v West Brom Pick: It has to be considered another disappointing season for Arsenal who might not have too many better chances to mount a successful title challenge as they had this season. Once again they have gotten into the second half of the season and then fallen away and now the fear has to be that Arsenal might fall out of the top four with Manchester United potentially breathing down their neck.
The boo boys were out in force at the end of Arsenal's 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace but it might be a more positive evening for them on Thursday against West Brom. While Crystal Palace have been earning positive results, West Brom have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and the players might be looking forward to the end of the season already.
This is not a ground that West Brom have enjoyed playing at in recent seasons and they were hammered here 4-1 last season, while you have to expect Arsenal will have a response to the result on Sunday. In all honesty they should never have been stuck at 1-0 when Crystal Palace scored their late equaliser and more composure in the final third might have led to a fairly comfortable Arsenal win.
Arsenal do have goals in their side once they get into a free flowing mode and being out of the title race might just loosen their players up as it has in previous years. There might be some pressure on them if both Manchester City and Manchester United win their League games on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, but Arsenal should take advantage of a West Brom team playing out the string.
I think Arsenal will be too good on the day and I believe they win this by at least two goals.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
April Update: 10-7, + 4.62 Units (34 Units Staked, + 13.59% Yield)
March Final: 22-17-2, + 9.06 Units (80 Units Staked, + 11.33% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
March Final: 22-17-2, + 9.06 Units (80 Units Staked, + 11.33% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)
December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 129-168-2, - 8.49 Units (652 Units Staked, - 1.30% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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