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Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Tennis Picks 2016 (April 21st)

It was a tough day for the picks on Wednesday as two players failed to make the cover in final set deciders with one winning outright and the other going down to a narrow loss.

Thankfully Angelique Kerber came back from a set down to beat Annika Beck with enough space to cover the spread and at least prevent it being a total disaster of a day.

The tournament in Bucharest was affected by the rain in the area meaning none of the matches scheduled for the day got to start and the entire Second Round will be played on Thursday. The remainder of the week at that tournament at least looks better from a weather front and those matches picked on Wednesday and the ones I have picked from Thursday should all be completed by Thursday evening.

Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There is only a few months that separates these players in terms of age and there are only a few places that separate them in the World Rankings. However Damir Dzumhur might have a little more upside than Marco Cecchinato, although the latter has produced the more convincing win this week.

This should be a fascinating Second Round match where I give the slight edge to Dzumhur who had a fantastic week in Monte Carlo before only just being beaten by Milos Raonic. That was a match that Dzumhur will feel he could have won if he was just a little more solid at the big moments in the third set, but he has to take confidence away from that run which should see an improved World Ranking.

The same impact on the main Tour is yet to be made by Cecchinato although the Italian is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts when at the Challenger level. He will likely feel he is the better clay court player in this one, but I am not convinced that is the case and Dzumhur could have the edge in the contest if he is able to produce a high percentage of first serves.

In their two previous matches on the Tour, Dzumhur has won both without dropping a set, including earlier this season. However both have been on the hard courts and Dzumhur has to be at his best to get the better of Cecchinato in this one, although I expect he can do that after a few breaks of serve for both players.

I expect Dzumhur can move through to the Quarter Final after a 75, 64 win in this one.

Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: It is a little weird to write this, but Fernando Verdasco has dropped to Number 86 in the World Rankings after a really inconsistent twelve months. That is still significantly higher than Radu Albot who is in the mid-100's in the World Ranking, but Verdasco would be expecting to improve his World Ranking over the next few months.

When you look back at the results, Verdasco has only won back to back matches in the same tournament twice since Wimbledon which is a big reason he has dropped in the World Rankings. Verdasco didn't have the best of clay court seasons either so this is an opportunity for him to pick up some vital Ranking points to get his position moving in the right direction.

Radu Albot will look for his serve to set up the points in this one, but he won't have faced too many players with the firepower that Verdasco can produce when he is working at top form. It is hard to trust that happening on a day by day basis, but Verdasco has to be encouraged by the way Nicolas Almagro dominated Albot when they met in Casablanca earlier this month.

As long as Verdasco remains focused on the task at hand and is not making a silly amount of unforced errors, he should have the better of this contest. The Spaniard can work his way through to a 63, 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.94 Units (10 Units Staked, - 29.4% Yield)

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