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Wednesday, 20 May 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (May 20th)

Wednesday is a very busy day across the tournaments being played this week with all of them looking to get the results in the bag by Saturday as the French Open will begin on Sunday. That means all the Quarter Finals will be played on Thursday, Semi Finals on Friday and Finals on Saturday which means the tournaments are looking to get on schedule on Wednesday.

There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.

As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.

Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.

The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.

While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.

While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.

Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.

However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.

Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.

The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.

Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.

That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.

Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.

As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)

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