It has been a strong tournament for the picks in Madrid over the last couple of days and we have reached the final couple of days here, while the rest of the Tour have already moved on to Rome for the final Masters event ahead of the second Grand Slam of the season.
The Final of the Premier Event will be played today and the two Masters Semi Finals are also scheduled as we get set to leave the stop in Madrid.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: One of the best performances of Rafael Nadal's season saw him dismiss the challenge of Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final and that has to give him some confidence as he looks to defend the title he won twelve months ago.
The return to the old racquet that he jettisoned at the beginning of the clay court, which I have been critical of already, might also have helped in the mindset, but Nadal now faces the man who crushed him in Australia at an event where they have previous.
Tomas Berdych has been very consistent all season without quite getting over the hump against many of his fellow top ten players, but he can take some confidence of having the right gameplan after the Australian Open win over Nadal. He will have to deal with the fans who have never forgiven Berdych for the spat he had with Nadal in 2006 in Madrid when this event was a hard court one at the end of the season.
If Berdych can employ the tactics that worked so well at the Australian Open, he may have a chance to beat Nadal, but the Spaniard is a different kettle of fish on the clay courts. I also truly believe he has had some of the confidence restored in his game this week with some impressive performances leading to decent wins and Nadal looks set to be too good for Berdych.
It could be a fascinating match to watch, but one I expect Nadal to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Andy Murray + 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The second Semi Final in the Madrid Masters looks a very close match to call and I think Andy Murray can make it a competitive one even if he is not quite good enough to beat Kei Nishikori to a place in the Final.
Out of the two players, I do think Nishikori is slightly more comfortable on the clay courts and Andy Murray has to deal with the fatigue that comes from a long week in Munich followed by the one he had here.
That fatigue could be a factor considering how gruelling the rallies are likely to be, but Murray can have some joy against the Nishikori serve to make this a close match. Murray has looked comfortable on the clay this season as his injuries of previous years look to be behind him, or so he says at least, and he has every chance of taking one set if he can get a decent percentage of first serves in play.
Taking a set might be enough to make this small number of games count, even in a losing effort, and I will take those on board for a close match.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray + 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Madrid Update: 7-1, + 10.92 Units (16 Units Staked, + 68.25% Yield)
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