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Tuesday, 26 May 2015

French Open Day 3 Picks 2015 (May 26th)

The final First Round matches, which are scheduled over three days at the French Open, will be played on Tuesday as the tournament will begin to take a more familiar feel. You can read the outright picks I have made from the French Open which can be read here.

Tuesday is a great day for the spectators, especially those who will be viewing action on the Philippe-Chatrier Court as the two men's favourites and the women's favourite all begin their charge to the title. Once Petra Kvitova concludes her match, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams will all begin their tournament and there will be plenty of attention to see how those players deal with the pressure and expectations on them.


It has been a very good tournament for the picks in the opening two days as they have gone 11-2 during that time. Of course this is a long two weeks and I don't think it is even close to the time to start patting myself on the back, although I have to say I am pleased with a positive start to the second Grand Slam of the season.

Things can quickly change if losing focus coupled with some bad luck so the key is to try and remain clear in the thinking and try and find the right match ups that have been wrongly set in the markets.


Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: Neither of these players will be expected to challenge deep into the second week of this Grand Slam, while the lower Ranked Julia Goerges is favoured to beat Coco Vandeweghe. Goerges certainly looks like a player that might already have had her best days on the WTA Tour, but she does seem the more comfortable on the clay courts which should give her a big advantage in this First Round match.

It has been another poor season for Vandeweghe on the clay courts in Europe, but she will be expecting bigger things for herself when the Tour moves onto the grass courts and especially when it moves back to the North American hard courts ahead of the US Open.

There is a real issue for Vandeweghe when it comes to movement on the red dirt, although she can't be underestimated having pushed Petra Kvitova into a third set in Madrid. However I am not sure she has the confidence on the surface even if Julia Goerges is another inconsistent player that can throw in too many unforced errors from out of nowhere.

Aside from Madrid, it has been a poor clay court season for Goerges too, although she has had a slightly stronger season than Vandeweghe. There will be a lot of momentum changes in this match though as both players have a chance to break serve and this is likely to go into a third set. However, it is the German who I believe is happier on the clay courts and can battle to a 63, 36, 63 win and a place in the Second Round.


Timea Bacsinszky - 4.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: Timea Bacsinszky has had a very strong 2015 season which would have erased the doubts that almost saw her quit her professional tennis career. While Bacsinszky could be a real threat in tournaments through the year, the clay courts are probably her worst surface and it would be a real surprise for her to go deep in the draw at the French Open.

This is also a tougher First Round draw against Lara Arruabarrena than it may initially seem on first glance, especially as the Spaniard is very confident on the clay courts being from that nation.

Arruabarrena has had a decent clay court season and has been beaten by some of the best players on the Tour while also reaching the Semi Final in Nuremberg last week. She also lost a close match at the French Open last season and she will give Bacsinszky some problems with her ability on this surface.

Bacsinszky had to qualify for Roland Garros last season and was barely beaten by Carla Suarez Navarro and it shows how good her last twelve months have been as she comes in as a Seed this time around. She should be the tougher player mentally with the form she has displayed in 2015 and I believe Bacsinszky will eventually have too much for Arruabarrena in a narrow 75, 63 win.


Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lourdes Dominguez Lino: Coming through the qualifiers will make Lourdes Dominguez Lino a very dangerous First Round opponent for Christina McHale, especially as the Spaniard should be more accustomed to the clay courts than McHale. Dominguez Lino is now Ranked outside the World Top 100 and she spends the majority of her time playing in clay court tournaments.

In fact Dominguez Lino has a winning record on the clay courts over the last three seasons and the veteran will believe she has a very good chance to win this match. However, McHale has also been producing some good stuff on the red dirt and doesn't mind playing on the slower surface unlike many of her American compatriots.

It hasn't been a great 2015 season for McHale, but she has at least shown some flashes of form in good runs in Madrid and Rome while preparing for the French Open. She will also have some good intel from her fellow American players like Lauren Davis and Alexa Glatch who have beaten Dominguez Lino over the last couple of months on clay courts.

McHale will have to serve well to keep the rallies under her own control because she will get chances to break the Dominguez Lino serve. If McHale can do that, I can see her battling past the veteran Spaniard with a 64, 64 win.


James Duckworth - 2.5 games v Andrea Arnaboldi: With the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal beginning their French Open campaign, matches like this in the First Round will be lucky to get anything more than a result flashing across the screen or result pages on the internet.

That is unless something special happens in the match, for example something like what happened in Andrea Arnaboldi's second qualifier which needed 52 games to be played in the final set before the Italian moved through. Arnaboldi will be glad his First Round match was left for the Tuesday after all three qualifiers went the distance including that tough match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

It was perhaps a surprise that Arnaboldi qualified for the main draw here in Roland Garros considering his lack of real form over the last couple of months on the clay courts. Coupled with the physical fatigue he has to be feeling even with a couple of days of rest should give James Duckworth every chance of progressing to the Second Round.

Duckworth is perhaps suited to other surfaces, but he reached the Quarter Final in Nice last week and has been more consistent than Arnaboldi at a similar level of competition over the last couple of months. He'll have to try and cut out the unforced errors that blighted him in the loss to Borna Coric in Nice, but Duckworth might also have been given confidence by what has looked faster clay courts than usual in Paris.

That helps Duckworth because he does like finishing points at the net and he could take away some time from Arnaboldi when he feels he wants to get forward. It might be wise to test Arnaboldi physically too by keeping the rallies going and Duckworth should have a great chance of progressing if he can control the unforced errors. It might go four sets, but that shouldn't affect his chances to cover this spread too and I like Duckworth to do that.


Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Jack Sock: I think Jack Sock could have a really good grass court campaign this year as he seems to have got a hold of his game with some good performances in 2015. However, I am not sure he is going to have enough on the clay courts to give Grigor Dimitrov another surprise loss at Roland Garros.

Dimitrov, like Sock, looks a player who would enjoy the faster surfaces more than the clay courts, but he has had plenty of success outside of Paris to be disappointed with his record here. The Bulgarian has never surpassed the Third Round at the French Open and has twice been beaten in the First Round in four visits which includes a huge surprise defeat to Ivo Karlovic last season.

This entire season has been something of a disappointment for Dimitrov heading into the second Grand Slam of the season, but I can see him coming through a really tight first set before pulling away from Jack Sock in this match. The American does have a big serve and a forehand that can get a lot of spin going on a surface like this, but Sock can't really hide the limited backhand on the slower courts.

That will be where Dimitrov will be focusing to find the short ball to take control of rallies and going to the Sock backhand is an easy 'get out of jail free card' that can be played under pressure. While Sock can hide that on the faster surfaces with quick-fire tennis, it's harder for him to do that on the clay courts and it doesn't surprise me he comes in on a three match losing run.

For the most part Sock has been very competitive, but the best of five set situation will give Dimitrov a chance to cover this spread because I can see him producing at least one 61 or 62 kind of set. As long as Dimitrov doesn't get frustrated, which he has shown signs of as his game has struggled to come together in 2015 on a consistent basis, I think he can win this one 76, 62, 64.

MY PICKS: Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
James Duckworth - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 11-2, + 17.24 Units (26 Units Staked, + 66.31% Yield)

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