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Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (April 30th)

Santiago Giraldo decided to pull out of the tournament this week, but that didn't stop the picks from having a positive start to the week. However, I am trying to keep as close a eye as possible on the motivation of players that may be thinking of heading to Madrid earlier in the hope of qualifying for the tournament there.

Motivation is always a factor that needs to be considered when making picks on a daily basis, especially on the tennis courts where a player even at 10% lower than his/her normal level would be defeated fairly comfortably.

In all honesty, the next two weeks are far more important in terms of Ranking points, but that mostly applies to the players that are already qualified for the big events. For others, these weeks are the good times to try and pick up a title, but it can be a minefield trying to determine who is interested in doing what.

That has also shown up in the number of seeds that have already lost in both tournaments before the middle of the week with players perhaps already looking ahead to the big month of May.


Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 games v Rui Machado: I mentioned yesterday that I am not a big fan of backing Daniel Gimeno-Traver to cover too many spreads simply because of the weakness of the serve, but he came through his First Round with so much confidence that I am going back to the well one more time this week.

His opponent, Rui Machado, had it even easier with a double bagel of Dmitry Tursunov, but I don't think he will be given such an easy day in the office this time.

Firstly, the Spaniard is very happy on the clay courts compared with someone like Tursunov and Gimeno-Traver has been playing at a higher level than Machado over the last couple of years. The home support will help Machado, but replicating the performance from yesterday may be too much to ask and I like Gimeno-Traver to come through with a 64, 64 win.


Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: I wouldn't associate the clay courts with Kaia Kanepi usually, but she has actually done pretty well on the surface over the last couple of years including winning a title and reaching the Semi Final here in 2013.

I am expecting her to be too strong for the qualifier from Romania despite the relative success that Irina-Camelia Begu has had on the clay courts.

Winning matches does breed confidence, even if the titles have come on the level below the main WTA Tour, but that won't matter to Begu who will feel she can't lose. However, she has generally found herself coming up short against the better players once she hits the higher level and Kanepi is definitely capable of proving too good.

It might be a little closer than I originally imagined simply because of all the wins Begu has had this season, but Kanepi to come through 75, 63 is my call.

MY PICKS: Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.4 Units (6 Units Staked, + 23.33% Yield)

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