Tuesday proved to be a better day for the picks as they went 2-1, although that still means the week is slightly on the negative side of things.
With another full day of tennis on Wednesday where the Second Round will be completed, the big names are opening their clay court season following Novak Djokovic yesterday. Today the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will take to the courts as well as the Australian Open Champion Stanislas Wawrinka and there will be a lot of good tennis for the locals to enjoy.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: With the way he approaches tennis, Fabio Fognini is always liable to throwing in the kind of up and down performance he had in the First Round. That is usually enough to dissuade me from backing the Italian to win too many matches, but his form on the clay courts over the last nine months is enough to keep me on his side in this Second Round match.
His opponent, Roberto Bautista-Agut, also looks one that should match up well for Fognini- while most Spaniards would favour the clay courts over other surfaces, I think Bautista-Agut is someone who isn't as comfortable on the slower surfaces.
Bautista-Agut doesn't have a big serve, but looks to wear down opponents with his defensive skills... That shouldn't be an issue for Fognini who has more clay court pedigree than his opponent and who has dominated the head to head between them.
The Italian has won 4 of the 5 previous matches between the players and beat Bautista-Agut in Miami last month and also won their sole meeting on a clay court last season. Fognini should be too good and move through to the Third Round on Wednesday with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Radek Stepanek: The first match on a new surface can be a troubling time for even the very best players on the Tour, but Roger Federer has the benefit of playing someone he will be very familiar with.
The style that Radek Stepanek brings to the court is awkward, especially if you haven't played him before, but he doesn't really ruffle the Federer feathers too often these days. In fact, he has lost 9 in a row since surprising Federer on the clay courts of Rome back in 2008 and Stepanek has been dismissed fairly comfortably more often than not.
Take away Rafael Nadal and Federer could have gone down as one of the best clay court players of all time so this should be a surface he is comfortable on. I also think Federer has taken a Wild Card spot here with the expectation of having a big week and I believe he will prove to be too good for Stepanek when it is all said and done.
The aggressive play should help Federer, although he has the experience to show more patience on the slower courts, but he has been serving well for the most part in 2014 and that should lead to a 64, 62 win.
Marin Cilic + 2.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: I was very tempted in picking Marin Cilic to win this Second Round match outright, but I have decided to take the games on offer in what looks a much closer match than the layers may think.
Cilic had to come through a tough First Round match where a Lucky Loser was placed in the draw and those struggles in the middle of the match could be down to it being his first match on clay this season. That is where the Croatian could take advantage of Stanislas Wawrinka who has admitted some of the mental issues of winning his first Grand Slam title of his career in Australia to open the season.
While Wawrinka has played well at times since then, he has suffered three surprising losses including in the Davis Cup two weeks ago and he may be caught cold by Cilic in this one. Cilic has a decent serve and can cause problems with his aggressive return.
Even if Wawrinka wins the match, it could be very close as their previous matches have tended to be, while the fact he is playing his first clay court match of the season may see Cilic take at least one set comfortably. That would make the games given to Cilic look too high and I will back a player that could potentially win this match outright to at least keep it competitive.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 2-2, - 0.84 Units (8 Units Staked, - 10.5% Yield)
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