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Thursday 17 April 2014

Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2014 (April 17th)

There weren't too many surprise results on Tuesday and that means the Third Round action in Monte Carlo has a number of intriguing matches, although I do think it is set for a very strong Quarter Final at the first major clay court event of the season.

As I said though, that doesn't mean there aren't some fascinating matches to view on Thursday and I do believe anyone lucky enough to watch the tennis live will certainly be enjoying themselves during the day.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Fabio Fognini: With one of the most improved performances on the clay courts in recent months, it is no surprise that Fabio Fognini is considered the favourite to win this Third Round match. However, I do think Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has the tools to bring in the upset and move through to the Quarter Final.

He may not have had a strong start to 2014, but Tsonga showed some guts to come through his match against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the last Round and some of the attributes he has should give him a great chance to win this match.

Tsonga's serve and heavy shots should pay dividends at times, while he will also get a good chance to see the Fognini serve and really try and earn breaks of serve. The Italian has been playing some brilliant tennis on the clay courts, but he will offer chances to Tsonga, who also has the benefit of knowing he has beaten Fognini on the clay courts before.

There is no doubt that Tsonga has to serve well and try and keep Fognini on the back foot if he is to win the game, but I do think the Frenchman can do so in three sets as the underdog.


Milos Raonic v Tommy Robredo: Another favourite that could be upset on Thursday is Tommy Robredo who faces the big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic in the Third Round.

The experience and comfort of the clay courts will certainly fall in favour of Robredo, but Raonic has the heavy shots that can see him hit through his opponent and also has the benefit of beating the Spaniard in Barcelona on the surface last season.

Raonic was actually favoured to win that match and he has the big game that can see him keep Robredo under pressure. He is also playing a little more aggressively when returning serve and Robredo's serve is not one that will pick up too many cheap points like Raonic's serve will during this match.

There is every chance this will go into a deciding set, but I like Raonic to frank last season's win and move through to the Quarter Final.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: There is a famous line from the film Anchorman that summed up Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Marin Cilic on Tuesday night- 'well, that escalated quickly'.

It was a stunning display from Wawrinka and one that surprised me very much considering how well Marin Cilic usually performs on the clay courts.

The win and the manner in which it came would make Wawrinka a strong favourite against Nicolas Almagro, even though the latter is one of the better clay court players out there. However, Almagro is coming off a tough week in Houston, has had to travel back to Europe and is now playing his third match in consecutive days and that can catch up with any player.

Stanislas Wawrinka will have to play as aggressively as he did yesterday and he also has a strong record against Almagro. He beat him twice last season, once on the clay, and also crushed the Spaniard 63, 63 back in 2012 in Monte Carlo and I like Wawrinka to win this match 64, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: There has to be a lot of confidence on Guillermo Garcia-Lopez' side of the court having won in Casablanca last week and winning a couple of matches here in Monte Carlo, but the run could very much come to an end on Thursday.

As impressive as the win over Alexandr Dolgopolov was, Garcia-Lopez hasn't played anyone of the quality of Tomas Berdych over the last couple of weeks.

Berdych has the serve and the aggressive brand of tennis that will make Garcia-Lopez' serve really feel the pressure and I think he is going to be too good in most areas in this match.

You have to respect the run Garcia-Lopez has had on the clay courts though, especially with this being Berdych's second match of the clay court season, but I still believe the higher Ranked player comes through 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Milos Raonic @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-3, + 0.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 6.86% Yield)

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