Tennis Picks 2014 (February 15th)

As frustrated as I said I was after the results coming through on Thursday, it was actually not as bad a day as it could have been, but Friday has proved to be a very important day for the week and looks to bring in some positives that I have been looking for.

After having a number of matches get close, but not quite over the line, the luck seemed to have turned a little on Friday with some big performances and late breaks of serve helping the picks come in with plenty of winners. Unfortunately, Andy Murray proved to be one of the disappointments as he slipped in the Quarter Finals and ended my outright interest at the ATP 500 event being held in Rotterdam, but other than Robin Haase retiring when very much down in his match with Tommy Robredo, it was a perfect day for the picks.

Even with the two outright exits over the last couple of days, Ivo Karlovic is still flying the flag in that regards and is one match away from making the Final which will produce a profit from the outright picks. Of course, if he can go on and win the tournament, this will prove to be a very strong week all around and raise a confidence that may have sapped a little recently.

That has put the week into a strong positive position as we have reached the Semi Finals in all four events being played across the world and I will look for it to end in a position to at least turn around the poor start to 2014 in general.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: A fascinating Semi Final is in store between these two players who have both shown strong form during the week and I think it is bound to be another close one between them.

However, I think Tomas Berdych is the man that is going to get through to the Final as he takes another step closer to ending his title drought which has stretched back to Stockholm in October 2012.

He has to be careful in this Semi Final though as he plays Ernests Gulbis who has already had back to back surprise wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin Del Potro and has also stunned Berdych in the past as witnessed by their match at Wimbledon in 2012.

Both have been serving very well, but I think the layers have put too much stock in the Gulbis win over Del Potro as I am not sure the latter was feeling 100% comfortable on the court this week. Against Berdych, Gulbis' strength will be going against Berdych's and I think the forehand battle is more likely to be won by the Czech player.

Of course, if Gulbis serves as big as he has in the last two matches, he is going to be incredibly tough to break, but I think Berdych dealt with Jerzy Janowicz' serve effectively enough to think he will make enough returns to force pressure on his opponent. It is unlikely to be straight-forward and breaks could be at a premium, but Berdych to come through 76, 64 is my call.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I will be the first to admit that I was expecting something of a come down from Marin Cilic after winning the title in Zagreb last week, but he has been in exceptional form this week and has already downed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray as the big Croatian looks for back to back titles.

This Semi Final represents a strong chance for Cilic to get into another Final as his recovery from a three month ban continues moving in the right direction and I think he will beat the home hope in the match.

You have to give Igor Sijsling plenty of credit for reaching this stage of the tournament as the Dutch look for the first home winner since Richard Krajicek took the title. However, you would also have to be a little critical and say the draw hasn't been the most difficult and this is going to be the toughest match he has played during the week by some distance.

Sijsling actually represented the first competitive match in three months for Cilic at Paris last October and it was the latter who came through comfortably after losing the first set, which was understandable. Cilic will pressure with his return of serve, one of his key strengths that is very under-rated, while he has also been serving with aplomb.

That combination should really work to his favour in this one and I think Cilic will come through with a 64, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Simona Halep: With the consistency that Simona Halep has shown on the Tour over the last ten months, I think it is fair to say that the Romanian perhaps let nerves get the better of her when dismissed so comprehensively by Dominika Cibulkova at the Australian Open Quarter Final stage.

Halep has shown decent form again this week as she has come through the draw with some comfort after a tricky opening match, but I still believe she will fall short against Agnieszka Radwanska in this Semi Final in Doha.

I will be the first to admit that I am not always a huge fan of the Radwanska game as it seems it will only take her so far and I don't believe it will ever be enough to win a Grand Slam. Defending admirably is one thing, but there will always be a player that gets hot and hits through that, so you have to add weapons of your own to give opponents something to think about.

In saying that, Radwanska has generally made hay outside of the Slams and that is the reason she is a top five player in the Rankings. I can see her frustrating Halep in this match, although the latter has shown she is capable of getting hot enough to win matches against the Pole as shown in Rome last year.

That was even on the clay courts where you would think Radwanska's game had more of a grip, but I am not sure that Halep's confidence is quite there at the beginning of 2014 to replicate that. Radwanska has been incredibly comfortable to this point and I think this will be her hardest match, but I am expecting her to come through with the win.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: David Ferrer is definitely on the downtrend of his career as far as I am concerned, but this could still be a good spot to back him to beat his compatriot yet again.

Ferrer has steadily improved his play this week, and he could be facing Almagro at the right time as the latter has had a lot of tennis in his legs and has looked a little vulnerable at times. There has to be a better serving display from Ferrer, but he should have some chances to break serve too and I think that is where he can come through and cover the spread.

The higher Ranked Spaniard has dominated the head to head record between these two and generally has been a comfortable winner when they have faced one another. Even the slightly poorer form of Ferrer from his heyday, but Almagro is still returning from an injury and I think Ferrer comes through with a 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 9.30 Units (55 Units Staked, + 16.91% Yield)