Ivo Karlovic couldn't quite complete the title win in Memphis last week, but his run to the Final meant the outright picks produced a profit for the week and has helped the season statistics get back into the black. This week we have another four stops on the Tour and I have outright picks which can be read here.
As always, Monday tends to be a quieter day with a lot of the tournaments completing their qualifying rounds and that is the case in Dubai and Marseille to the extent that I couldn't find picks from either of those tournaments that I was comfortable with.
However, the tournament in Rio de Janeiro is getting straight into the action with the qualifiers concluded over the weekend and I hope I can set up a strong week with the following picks from the two tournaments taking place in North and South America.
Facundo Bagnis v Joao Souza: This is a First Round match between the qualifier from Argentina, Facundo Bagnis, and the home Wild Card hope, Joao Souza, but I have a feeling that the fans may be disappointed with the outcome of the match.
Neither of the players can say they have a lot of experience in playing at the top level of the ATP Tour, but both have had considerable success in the Challenger level so this may end up being decided by which of the two can control their emotions and nerves with more effect.
I think Bagnis does have a couple of things in his favour which surprises me that he has been left as the underdog in this match- the first of those is the fact he has beaten Souza in 4 straight matches, all on the clay courts, including their sole meeting in 2013; the second is he has come through the qualifiers which gives him an edge when it comes to the conditions at this new tournament.
Playing at home may inspire Souza enough to see off these two advantages for Bagnis, but I think the latter may also be able to use the two advantages to settle down a little easier in the match. It will only be a small interest, but I like the underdog in the match.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Another player that has been given a Wild Card because he is a home hope is Guilherme Clezar, but I think it is going to be a big ask for him to beat Federico Delbonis who generally plays at a higher level.
There is no doubt that Clezar has a decent record at the Challenger level, but Delbonis has started producing more consistently in the main ATP tournaments, especially on the clay courts. However, Delbonis has suffered a couple of disappointing losses the last couple of weeks and I do wonder if that will play a part mentally on a young player with setbacks in the manner they have arrived.
The Argentine does have a decent serve which will at least set up his points, but Delbonis might have a slight mental block getting over the line and will be disappointed his last two defeats have come despite winning the first set of the match.
Playing at home may also give Clezar the feeling of nothing to lose from the match, but I think Delbonis will prove a little too good and come through 63, 76.
Feliciano Lopez v Sam Querrey: This has all the makings of a quality First Round match and really feels like the winner of the match could easily go all the way to the Final at Delray Beach this week.
If you like big serving tennis, this is the kind of match for you and chances will likely be limited in both directions to earn crucial breaks of serve, but I don't think the layers have got the right favourite in place unless there is an injury for Feliciano Lopez that is not common knowledge.
Lopez was beaten by Ivo Karlovic last week, but the big Croatian has been in decent form, while Sam Querrey has found a way to lose matches he has no right to be doing. The first of those was in the Davis Cup against James Ward when he inexplicably collapsed, while the loss to Alex Bogomolov last week in Memphis would have been another disappointment after Querrey won the first set.
That lack of confidence makes him an uneasy favourite as far as I am concerned and I was surprised that the layers think he is more likely to win the match. Lopez has a decent serve that can keep the pressure on Querrey and the big advantage will be the lefty going into the weaker backhand wing of the American.
It will likely be a tight match, but a couple of recent collapses from Querrey makes me wonder about his state of mind and I like Lopez to come through.
MY PICKS: Facunda Bagnis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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