US Open Day 10 Picks (September 5th)

I haven't made one complaint about any of the picks I have made over the last ten days, blaming myself for making bad picks rather than anything that happened on the court... until yesterday.

This time it was the weather that conspired against me in both matches that were completed- the Victoria Azarenka match was unfortunate as she won the first set 6-1, only for Sam Stosur to play out of her skin for the next two sets, even in a losing effort. That was annoying as Azarenka was up 3-1 and 4-2 in the final set, but couldn't hold on to her serve until it was too late.

It was the David Ferrer match that really hurt as he went up 15-30 in the third set as he led 4-3, only for the weather to kick in and delay the match for several hours... Richard Gasquet was finished to be honest, but he was able to come back out, save a break point and then hold before being broken in his next service game and missing the cover by one game.

As I said on Twitter 'that was as predictable as it was gut-wrenching'.


The weather is expected to be in play again today and it will likely be another stop-start day... I am not happy with the fact that Serena Williams and Roger Federer have been scheduled for the night session as there is every chance that the other matches are all completed by that time and theirs could easily be postponed until tomorrow with the way the rain could be playing its part today.


Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: An all-Italian battle in the Quarter Final would not have been high on many people's projections at the beginning of this tournament, but that is the case as both of these girls knocked out Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska in their Fourth Round matches, the two favourites from this quarter of the draw.

Sara Errani is the more experienced at this level considering she reached the Final at the French Open earlier this year and she also holds a 3-2 head to head record against Roberta Vinci, winning the last three matches they have competed in.

Both have been in wonderful form with Errani reaching the Semi Final in New Haven the week before the US Open, while Vinci won the tournament in Dallas in the same week.

Both have also played well here in the early Rounds, but I think it is Errani who has the slightly more consistent game and I think that will see her reach her second Grand Slam Semi Final of the season, a real achievement.


Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: Serena Williams is clearly the best player in the Women's draw and she is a short favourite to win the tournament after handing out a bagel in each of the last three sets she has played.

It might be a little more difficult against Ana Ivanovic, a player who is also playing pretty well at the moment, and someone who has at least made her previous matches somewhat competitive against Serena in the past.

The 6.5 games being given to the Serb may be down to the beating she took at Wimbledon by Victoria Azarenka as well as the fact she was handed a double bagel in her only match ahead of the US Open, but she has enough in her game to think she will average 3 games a set in this match to cover the handicap.

Serena is 3-0 against Ivanovic, but her largest win is 6-2, 6-4, so here's hoping Ivanovic can make this competitive.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Before the US Open began, Tomas Berdych spoke candidly about the top four in the Men's game and how there is a definite gap between them and the other players in the Tour and I am not sure he has the belief that he can beat someone like Roger Federer at this moment in time, particularly with the way Federer has been playing.

Both Men have come through their opening Rounds easily, but I think the mental edge will definitely belong to Federer as the court suits his game just fine.

It is possible that the match will be extended to four sets, and possibly until tomorrow with some of the rain in the area, but I like Federer's chances and I think Berdych is the kind of player than can fall away when he thinks the match is beyond his reach, and that should see the cover come in.

I'll look for a 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Running from yesterday with the score tied at 6-6 in the first set
Sara Errani - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 10-13, - 3.84 Units (43 Units Staked)