NFL Week 4 Picks 2012

Week 3 Quick Hits

• It was only a matter of time before the replacement referees were going to cost a team a game through their ineptitude and that was the case on Monday Night Football in front of a nationally televised audience. The mistakes made in that game were bad enough as they kept Seattle going in the second half, but missing a clear pick in the end zone to rule the game in favour of the Seahawks was disgusting- it led to outrage on Twitter as sports stars and NFL players not involved in the game openly criticised what the NFL has come to.
• The NFL statement on Tuesday was an embarrassment- Chris Mortenson put it best: 'They should have just said we can't change the game outcome on mistakes made by officials'... Instead, the NFL decided to put their fingers in their ears and pretend nothing had happened.
• Twitter also saw some of the responses from the Green Bay Packers players that were understandably upset with the calls that went against them.
• By the far the funniest 'tweet' I read was one saying 'Russell Wilson is the first player in NFL history to throw a game WINNING interception'.
• A much less funny and biggest issue with the replacement referees is the number of personal fouls the players are getting away with- how did Golden Tate get away with his hit on Sean Lee in Week 2 and what about the one suffered by Darrius Heyward-Bey in Oakland against the Steelers this week?

These were some of the things I had already written before news broke on Wednesday that a tentative deal is in place to get the real referees back in action by Sunday- guess the NFL had their fingers out of their ears for long enough to actually hear the criticism coming their way!

• The game may have been tarnished, but how good was the Seattle Defense for the most part against the Green Bay Packers on Monday? I said I thought the Defense might be for real and I think I have already been proven correct after their performances against the Packers and Dallas the week before... My question now? Will Seattle be able to score enough points?
• I was concerned that the New Orleans Saints may miss Sean Payton's presence this season, but there is no way I had an inclination that they would have looked as bad as they have on both sides of the ball to open the season. The Offense is spluttering while the Defense couldn't stop a high school team the way they are playing and the Saints are already in big trouble in the NFC South thanks to the Atlanta Falcons 3-0 start.
• How many would have tipped Arizona being 3-0 after playing in New England and hosting Philadelphia and also tipped New Orleans at 0-3 after playing Washington and Kansas City in the SuperDome?
• Talking about that Arizona team, did anyone else see how good the Defense played against Philadelphia on Sunday? They dominated Philadelphia and got some good licks on Michael Vick...
• Speaking of Michael Vick, I just can't see him lasting the season if he doesn't find a way to protect himself better- he was crushed by Kerry Rhodes at the end of the second half that led to a fumble and a Cardinals touchdown, while even his performances had Andy Reid almost implying he would be pulled if he doesn't improve.
• What were Detroit thinking going for a Quarter Back sneak on a fourth and one in Overtime? It was a clearly a miscommunication and cost them the win when the chip shot field goal would have at least given them a chance to stop Tennessee and win the game with 7 minutes left.
• When Peyton Manning signed with Denver, I said I was surprised as I didn't think they were the best of the teams that wanted him (Arizona and San Francisco are 5-1 combined without him)- however, the Broncos have faced two really tough teams in their last two games (6-0 on the season) and they are in a winnable Division starting with Oakland at Mile High this week so don't rule out this team just yet.
• I don't like the New York Jets, or any team in the AFC East (apart from my beloved Dolphins), but it was sad to hear a player of Darrelle Revis' calibre has been ruled out for the season- he is one of the star Defensive players in the League and his loss will hurt the Jets massively in their bid to return to the Play Offs.
• What might hurt the Jets more is the play of the Offense- I wasn't sure about Mark Sanchez before the season, but I now think he plain sucks and the Jets just don't have the 'ground and pound' ability through Shonn Greene. The success against the Bills will prove to be an exception in my humble opinion and I think the loss of Revis weakens the Defense massively so my projection that they will miss the Play Offs looks better by the day.

Honestly, I can't believe I ended up with a small profit on the picks for week 3- not because I didn't deserve one, but the fact of the matter is that I would have been up for the season with another big week if those replacement referees hadn't screwed the call in Seattle.

Seriously, if I was on Seattle on Monday night, I would have played the lottery to see if my luck holds out- the referees choked the call because there was no way they were going to overturn a touchdown for the home team whose fans would have strung them up.

It wasn't just that call that bothered me- Seattle didn't move the chains at all in the second half until a 'roughing the passer' call (wrong call), a 30 yard pass interference on Sam Shields (wrong call) and then that non-call on Golden Tate at the end of the game when he clearly pushes the aforementioned Shields before putting his finger on the ball to be awarded the touchdown.

Would have been almost 5 units of profit for the week if the replacement referees had balls and eyes, instead it is a small profit leaving the thread in a loss for the season.

My Top Ten

This isn't a Power Ranking, but it isn't solely a personal view either- records are important, but so is my perception of a team.

1) Houston Texans (3-0): Still unbeaten and they looked very, very good in Denver when outplaying the Broncos.

2) San Francisco 49ers (2-1): The defeat to Minnesota was a surprise, but forgiveable considering they had beaten Green Bay and Detroit in consecutive weeks so a letdown was always a possibility.

3) Atlanta Falcons (3-0): Atlanta crushed San Diego and have a high-scoring Offense while looking the best team in the NFC South.

4) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): Arizona are the biggest surprise so far, but anyone who saw them end last season with a 7-2 record may have foreseen this start.

5) Baltimore Ravens (2-1): It was an impressive comeback against New England on Sunday night, although I did think they had missed another game winning/tying field goal against them for a moment.

6) Green Bay Packers (1-2): The only team with a losing record in my top ten that should have a winning record... Offense still not clicking, but Defense has looked good the last two weeks.

7) New England Patriots (1-2): The only team with a GENUINE losing record in my top ten... New England blew the win in Baltimore, but they played pretty good for most of the game and will beat most teams with that level of performance.

8) Dallas Cowboys (2-1): I know there will be a lot of people thinking I have placed this team too high... If the Offense can just find a little more consistency, this Defense can help them win games as they shut down Tampa Bay to 10 points, a team who scored 34 in New York in week 2.

9) Buffalo Bills (2-1): Losing CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson for at least a couple of weeks is tough and this week we get to see who the Bills are as they host the Patriots.

10) New York Giants (2-1): Back in my top ten after a total and utter dismantling of Carolina on both sides of the ball to back up a big comeback against Tampa Bay.

My Bottom Five

32) Cleveland Browns (0-3): Still having some teething problems early in the season and were beaten easily by Buffalo... Now on a short week at Divisional rivals Baltimore.

31) New Orleans Saints (0-3): They are just not playing well at the moment, although I imagine Drew Brees will get them out of their slump sooner rather than later... Unfortunately I don't see that happening against an angry Green Bay in Wisconsin this week.

30) Washington Redskins (1-2): The injuries to the Defense are going to put a lot of pressure on RG3 to win games by scoring lots of points.

29) St Louis Rams (1-2): Only above Washington after handling them in week 2 and I think they have shown enough signs to think they will at least double last season's 2 win total, although the Division looks ridiculously tough.

28) Indianapolis Colts (1-2): Should have beaten Jacksonville at the weekend, but they are still getting all their pieces together.

Week 4 Picks

Hopefully the Picks this week are not going to be affected by people who can't tell the difference between a touchdown and an interception.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15374-Cleveland-Browns-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15455-New-England-Patriots-at-Buffalo-Bills.htm)

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15457-Carolina-Panthers-at-Atlanta-Falcons.htm)

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15458-Minnesota-Vikings-at-Detroit-Lions.htm)

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15456-Miami-Dolphins-at-Arizona-Cardinals.htm)

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15459-New-Orleans-Saints-at-Green-Bay-Packers.htm)

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15460-Oakland-Raiders-at-Denver-Broncos.htm)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15461-Cincinnati-Bengals-at-Jacksonville-Jaguars.htm)

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15469-Chicago-Bears-at-Dallas-Cowboys.htm)

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 12 Points @ 1.96 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 4 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units

Season 2012: 13-13, - 2.29 Units