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Wednesday, 23 March 2011

Recap of the Week and Picks Update

It has been a very good March so far, although we are reaching the stage where we have to be careful in giving back too much back to the greedy bookmakers.

The English Premier League, and the other top European Leagues, have shut down for a 2 week International break. I hate the fact that this seems to sap the momentum being built up as the season draws to a close, but I am extremely happy as a Manchester United fan that we have this time to get some defenders back up to speed with a tough looking trip to Upton Park next on the schedule.

Talking about United, a quiet piece of news was that Red Holdings, the company in control of United, made a loss of over 100 million pounds during the last year. The lack of a superstar being sold, as Cristiano Ronaldo was 18 months ago, makes me suspicious of what the Glazers are getting up to at Old Trafford. They maintain there is 100 million sitting in a bank waiting to be spent when there is 'value in the market'- I am just beginning to wonder when this 'value' will appear as the squad is ageing and definitely needs reinvestment.

Watching Cheltenham last week reminded me of how the Premier League title race is shaping up this season. While the public concentrates on the two horses leading the way, the eye is taken off the old timer powering behind them on the rails. Chelsea are looking more and more dangerous with each passing game, and I am beginning to believe that they are the biggest threat to United winning the record 19th top flight title. The game at Old Trafford on May 7th may just be the title decider, not the May 1st meeting between Arsenal and United at the Emirates.

I just cannot wait for the Internationals to get out of the way and we can then enjoy an April packed with big games and moments.

The NBA will always have its doubters as to how legitimate teams are playing. The minute you see a team blow a big lead and fail to cover a spread, there are a number of people on message boards, blogs and websites disputing the validity of the performances. I do not agree with them- teams are playing for one thing and one thing only, the W. They dont care if they fail to cover as long as the game is in the bag and they take one more step towards the Play Offs.

The teams that are looking particularly dangerous as we get to less than a month to go in the regular season are the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. Both are already playing with Play Off intensity and will be tough to knock off- while it is still too early to be talking about who will make the Finals in June, I am sure no one is looking forward to playing those two teams.

On the other hand, whoever finishes 8th in the East are going to struggle, while the New York Knicks look like they will not be making the impact in the Play Offs that fans will have expected. If the Knicks draw Boston, I would say get ready for next season New Yorkers.

The NHL is another League drawing to a close for the regular season. The hits being dished out and taken have really come under the microscope in recent weeks as the issues surrounding concussions become clearer day by day. At the end of the day, I dont want to watch a hockey game where the star players are on the sidelines with injuries, or take limited part as they are targeted with vicious hits.

The San Jose Sharks have been in hot form in recent weeks, and could end up being a dangerous lower seed in the loaded Western Conference. There are a bunch of teams that can beat one another in both Conferences, and it is really hard to find a standout team. I wont even guess at a pick to win the whole thing until the Play Off seedings are completed.

Finally, there has been a lot of discussions in recent weeks about what constitutes a good record for the various people picking games all over the Net. The bottom line is this- no one can possibly pick at greater than 70% for spread betting in any League over the course of a season. However, if you can play your bank in the correct manner, it is possible, along with a 55-60% strike rate, to make plenty of profit.

My only advice would be to use units to distinguish your picks, keep a record of your tips, and do not get too disheartened if you suffer a couple of losses- remember to research your picks and you should come good. If not, check your research, whether you are looking at the correct angles for games and use it in trial and error. NEVER bet your life savings, or more than you can afford to lose.

Picks Update for March
Football (Soccer) + 10.72 Units

NBA + 17.98 Units

NHL + 1.1 Units

Latest Picks
Remember to check http://www.goonersguide.com/ for picks every day (mine are under Auls)

Today I have:
Miami Heat - 8.5 points @ Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets - 8.5 points v Golden State Warriors

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