Tennis Picks 2022 (June 23rd)

It was a mixed day which looked like it was going to be a really bad one for a long time as those inches I've talked about were all going against me.

A late rally prevented it being a really poor day, but I am looking for better results to take into the final three days of the events being played this week and then to carry that forward into Wimbledon.

I have a right to be a touch irritated with the way a couple of the losing Picks came about- Tallon Griekspoor won, but I could never have imagined him losing a set 6-0, while Dan Evans had a chance to get back on serve in the second set at 5-4, 0-40, and that would have been enough for the two setter to cover the total games line set.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Thursday, but there are wetter conditions around in Eastbourne and Mallorca and it may mean delays or matches having to be moved to the outside courts to make sure the tournament is down to the final four in both the ATP and WTA event being played there by the time the day's play is completed.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: For most players the focus will have turned to Wimbledon and making sure they are ready to compete at the third Grand Slam of the season, but that is a tournament without Ranking points. There will be a number of players that will be disappointed to have heard the news, but it also means that some are out there this week looking to make sure they produce some healthy results in order to avoid a massive drop in the Rankings.

Motivation for Alex De Minaur shouldn't be a problem having won the title here in Eastbourne last year and knowing that he suffered a First Round exit at Wimbledon. That defeat may mean he is not as keen to have to dig deep over the next couple of days, but the fact he is looking after some big Ranking points should help keep the Australian focused.

With days remaining until Wimbledon begins, you have to factor in the motivational angles and I do think the defending Champion will want to pick up another title here. Alex De Minaur has played well in his two wins in the tournament and is clearly enjoying the conditions, although it will feel different on Thursday with the rain cooling the temperature down, while De Minaur may not be exactly sure where he will be playing this match.

That shouldn't affect the mindset as Alex De Minaur takes on Tommy Paul for the third time in 2022 having won the previous two matches in straight sets. This is the third surface on which Paul and De Minaur will be competing, but the latter has long suggested grass is his favourite of the surfaces on which the Tour is played and I am not sure the same can be said for Tommy Paul.

The American had not played any grass court tennis since 2019, but he did reach the Quarter Final in London last week and has backed that up with another couple of wins in Eastbourne. However, Tommy Paul has not been the most convincing of performer and has perhaps benefited from the small margins edging his way at key times during matches to earn the victories.

Tommy Paul has held 85% of his service games played on the grass this season, but he is only winning 63% of the points played behind that shot. Those are decent enough numbers, although the main problem for Tommy Paul is his limited return game on the grass and I do think Alex De Minaur can largely keep him under pressure with his own serve.

Alex De Minaur has won 66% of his points played behind serve, but he has only held 81% of his service games and that is largely down to a really poor effort on the break points. He has faced nineteen break points in his four grass court matches, but De Minaur has been broken ten times and you do have to feel he has to get better on those pressure points against someone like Tommy Paul who has broken in 16% of return games.

There is no doubt that Alex De Minaur has been the more efficient return player and that has also shown up in their head to head matches this season with the Australian holding 81% of service games compared with Tommy Paul's 69% mark and I think that will also be the case in this Quarter Final.

It can be tough to really be confident in Alex De Minaur, but he does tend to beat the players expected and I think he will have too much for Tommy Paul who has ridden his luck at times to put together the wins he has this past month.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-19, - 0.54 Units (78 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 22nd)

All of the events being played this week are scheduled to be concluded on Saturday, a couple of days before Wimbledon begins.

That means the middle of the week is perhaps busier than usual with the the tournaments looking to whittle down to the last eight ahead of the Thursday Quarter Finals. A busy day means a fair few Tennis Picks from the matches set to be played as I look for a slightly more consistent day after a mixed Tuesday.

Some of the matches have not been priced up at the time of writing and any Picks will be added to this thread as those markets are released.

Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: He may not be the player he once was, but beating Feliciano Lopez on a grass court is still a tough challenge and Tallon Griekspoor has to be credited for keeping himself focused to secure the victory through a couple of tie-breakers. The raw numbers showed it was a tough day in the office with the Lopez serve a difficult shot to deal with, but Tallon Griekspoor served well enough himself and that is going to be an important shot for him over the next couple of weeks.

Ultimately the return is where Griekspoor is going to have difficulties in progressing his career if he cannot find a bit more out of that side of his game. On the faster surfaces it has been a real issue for the Dutchman and it has been the case during this grass court season with just 31% of points won on the return and that has led to 11% of return games ending in a break of serve.

It has not prevented Tallon Griekspoor winning five of the seven grass court matches played this month and that is down to the 94% of service games being held to build scoreboard pressure.

He is much more experienced than Alex Molcan, one of the improving players on the Tour, although the Slovakian has earned a solid win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the First Round here in Mallorca. The serve is an important shot for Alex Molcan on all surfaces and he has been pounding through those games efficiently in his two grass court matches, although the question for him is the same for his opponent and that is finding a way to improve the returning side of his game.

The two grass court matches has seen Alex Molcan break in just 9% of return games played as he has won 29% of return points played.

This will be a match that is going to be won and lost in the small margins, but Tallon Griekspoor may hold the mental edge having beaten Alex Molcan a couple of times on the Tour already. One of those wins came in Halle last week and Tallon Griekspoor has yet to be broken in their two previous matches, while the inches have been with him on the return.

Tallon Griekspoor has created fifteen break points compared with Alex Molcan's two in their previous matches and that includes a four to one edge last week in Halle. The Dutchman looks like he could hold the slight edge in this one too and I think his serving will build enough scoreboard pressure to find a way to edge past Alex Molcan and cover this line set for the Second Round match.

Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: The World Ranking points are being removed from Wimbledon 2021 over the next couple of weeks and that could have a significant impact on Denis Shapovalov who reached the Semi Final at that event. There are no Ranking points on offer at Wimbledon this year and the Canadian has had a mixed season to this point which means a drop in the World Ranking was expected any way.

He will be Seeded at Wimbledon, but it is important for Denis Shapovalov to try and build some confidence and momentum this week in Mallorca. I am a little surprised he decided to leave England to take in this tournament rather than playing in Eastbourne (or playing Halle rather than Queens last week), but Denis Shapovalov is looking for positive results on the court and a change in conditions may suit him.

Last year Denis Shapovalov really enjoyed his time on the grass, but the loss of confidence since then has contributed to him losing his first match in Stuttgart and London. He has not played badly, but the pressure points have not been played as he would have liked and it has meant Denis Shapovalov has lost matches perhaps a little undeservingly so.

Ultimately you only get the results that you can cross over the line and Denis Shapovalov will need to serve well and hope that can put him in a position to win this match. The Canadian has held 88% of his service games played over the last couple of grass tournaments and was at 89% last season when reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final, but Denis Shapovalov has struggled on the return.

He is going to be tested on that side of his tennis by Benjamin Bonzi who has a solid 13-4 record on the grass courts, although the Frenchman has built that largely against players Ranked outside the top 100. In fact, Benjamin Bonzi has a 2-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, although you should not ignore the fact that both of those were recorded over the last couple of weeks and Bonzi did push Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets in a defeat in Halle.

Benjamin Bonzi has held 95% of his service games played on the grass in 2022, while he certainly has gotten a bit more out of his return than Denis Shapovalov. He created ten break points against a decent server like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Benjamin Bonzi only faced four break points on his own serve so will feel he has the weapons to try and contain Denis Shapovalov in this Second Round match.

You have to believe Denis Shapovalov will be able to roll through some service games of his own and I do think the limited break opportunities could see this Second Round match surpassing the total games line set.

With a very high percentage of service games being held, I do think we will see at least one tie-breaker on the day and that can set this match on the way to a number of games to surpass the line where it is at right now.

Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 22.5 games: The head to head with Emil Ruusuvuori clearly is one that Ilya Ivashka enjoys, but he has not had the same success against Stefanos Tsitsipas with two losses from their two Tour meetings. Both have been pretty one-sided losses too with the Belarusian struggling with the return of serve, but Ilya Ivashka has to feel that the grass courts could be a leveller for him.

He has long been comfortable on this surface and Ilya Ivashka may have felt he could have had a solid impact at Wimbledon if the tournament had not decided to go rogue and ban Belarusian and Russian players from competing. Some may have felt disheartened, but Ilya Ivashka has played some solid grass court tennis this month and his only losses have both come at the hands of World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev.

Both have been competitive losses and Ivashka has been holding 91% of the service games played on the surface and that is a strong number. He has won 68% of points behind serve and that is a number that will make it difficult for a returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas to break him.

While a still improving player, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with his return on the grass and he does not look completely comfortable with how best to approach this side of his tennis. Over the last couple of weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to have a really strong grass court tournament and he has won just 28% of points against the serve and that has produced breaks in 10% of return games played.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed facing the Ilya Ivashka serve, but one of those matches was on a clay court on which the Greek player is much more comfortable than he is on the grass.

It will mean pressure on his own serve, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 69% of points behind serve and he will believe it is a shot that can contain his opponent in the Second Round in Mallorca.

The serve has certainly been too much for Ilya Ivashka to deal with in their previous matches and this could be another match in which the players are able to roll through service games and need tie-breakers to separate them. While holding a mental edge from their previous head to head meetings, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be as comfortable as Ilya Ivashka is on the grass courts and that could make this match the most competitive of the three between them.

Motivation could be a question for Stefanos Tsitsipas if he falls behind in the match with Wimbledon fast approaching, but I do think he wants to at least put a couple of wins on the board before heading to London. I don't expect anything less than a full effort from Ilya Ivashka with this being his last grass court tournament of the month and with two strong servers and two relatively average return players, I think this match will surpass the total set for the match.

MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marcos Giron @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez-Daniel Altmaier Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dan Evans-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ryan Peniston - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-9, + 5.10 Units (42 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 21st)

On a day when 66% of the Picks that were completed returned winners, you should be positive.

But I can't help feel that meat was still left on the table and that can be frustrating when you believe it was a day in which more winners should have been produced.

The Sebastian Korda pick was a bad one, but he has withdrawn from Wimbledon and is clearly not feeling himself.

However, Alison Riske had so many chances to win her match in straight sets and it felt like she was at 0-30 against serve for much of the second set without getting over the line. I truly believe the breaks would have been like London buses (wait for one when two or three come at once), but it was not meant to be.

Later on Taro Daniel reminded me why he is the player I just can't get a read on for love nor money- whenever I back against him he seems to be a pressure point playing demon, which makes me wonder how he continues to flounder outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

But back him? He will make you regret that too.

His late break after saving break points in multiple service games ensured he covered to end the day at 8-4 rather than 9-3, but I will always appreciate a plus day.

Bad Homburg saw much of their schedule rained out and that meant the Bianca Andreescu pick will be played on Tuesday.

Dan Evans - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Two competent grass court players will be looking to put a solid tournament under their belts before Wimbledon begins and I think this will be a competitive First Round match in Eastbourne.

Dan Evans has won a title on the grass courts this season, albeit at the Challenger level, but was beaten in the First Round in Queens. He looks like he will be Seeded at Wimbledon, and he has the potential to have a solid run at the third Grand Slam of the season.

Matches like this will give us a pretty good indication as to where Dan Evans feels his own game is as he goes up against the veteran Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch, but he has dropped out of the top 70 of the World Rankings and surprisingly chose to miss out on the Qualifying events at the big grass court tournaments that were played last week.

Adrian Mannarino looks to be a declining force, but had three solid wins in Hertogenbosch which have to be respected. The loss to Daniil Medvedev came in a close match, while Mannarino was perhaps more disappointed with the defeat to Ryan Peniston in Surbiton at the end of May.

Having a lefty serve makes Adrian Mannarino dangerous and he has long been a solid performer on the grass, although his numbers in recent seasons shows the overall decline he is on. Someone like Dan Evans should be a step above him now and the British player also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage, which can help in what are expected to be close matches.

They have split the two previous grass court matches played against one another, although it was Dan Evans who beat Adrian Mannarino when they met at Queens last year. The serve was dominant for Evans on that day and he has held 88% of his service games on the grass courts this season compared with Mannarino's 83% mark.

The last three matches between these opponents have all been won by Dan Evans and he has had a big edge when it comes to the serve in those too. I expect that could be the difference between Evans and Adrian Mannarino in the First Round here too and he can do just enough to edge past this handicap mark set on his way to the Second Round.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 games v Pedro Martinez: Two Spaniards who would much prefer to be playing clay court tennis than grass court tennis will be meeting in the First Round in Eastbourne in the final warm up event before Wimbledon.

However, to give both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pedro Martinez their credit, both have produced some big results on the grass courts and can have an impact on the surface.

Last week was a disappointment for Pedro Martinez who was beaten early at Queens, but he did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last season and beat Gael Monfils during that run. I have to respect that, but Pedro Martinez is just 1-4 in grass court matches outside of the two wins at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was well beaten last week.

His opponent hasn't exactly got a grass court record to write home about, but Davidovich Fokina did reach the Quarter Final in London last week.

Being friends does change the dynamic of the match a little bit and I am a little wary of asking one of them to be able to cover a big spread, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have a bit more quality with his grass court tennis and that can be key to the outcome of the match.

I expect to see breaks of serve both ways, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did hold 77% of his service games last week, while Pedro Martinez was put under immense pressure by Francisco Cerundolo in his defeat. I think that could be the case here and Davidovich Fokina can work his way into a position to cover this mark as he moves through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.24 Units (24 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 20th)

The final week before any Grand Slam can be a difficult one to negotiate as far as Tennis Picks are concerned and that is largely down to the chance of there being a lack of motivation to have a deep run with a big tournament coming up.

However, the WTA event in Eastbourne is one of the bigger events on the Tour, while the top names are largely absent in the two ATP tournaments being played. That should mean players will be looking to put solid results together to build some confidence, while others know they will not be able to compete at the third Slam of the season and so may not be worried about conserving energy.

It is a week in which I will be keeping an eye on the early results and making sure I am not in the same kind of hole as I found myself last week.

The late bounce back was not completely satisfactory, but it does mean having some momentum to take into what is a very busy week of tennis as the final approach towards Wimbledon is taken.

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: With Wimbledon out of bounds for those representing Russia and Belarus, it might be hard to find the motivation for players from those nations to put in a big week in the final one before the third Grand Slam of the season begins. However, I do think the Ranking points that can be earned should be motivation enough and there are plenty of events to play next month and then in the lead to the US Open to make up for the disappointment of missing the event in South West London that is a week away from getting going.

Players like Ilya Ivashka may not have been a genuine title contender at Wimbledon, but he is close to surpassing his career best World Ranking and has been a pretty solid player on the grass courts.

The serve is a potent weapon for Ilya Ivashka who has held 90% of his service games played on the grass courts over the last couple of weeks. Only Daniil Medvedev has ended his runs in Hertogenbosch and Halle, but Ilya Ivashka is on the opposite side of the draw in Mallorca this week and will be hoping that serve can help him out of difficult spots.

His return numbers have not hit the kind of marks that Ivashka has reached in 2019 and 2021 on the grass courts, but he can be an effective return player.

It was that side of his game that saw Ilya Ivashka beat Emil Ruusuvuori in Hertogenbosch and I am a little surprised the latter has decided to leave England and play in this event in Mallorca rather than playing in Eastbourne. The travel back and forth shouldn't be a major issue, while Emil Ruusuvuori may feel more confident having Qualified for Queens last week and then reaching the Quarter Final.

Emil Ruusuvuori has not really had the time to adjust as he may have liked having played in London on Friday and this match scheduled for Monday, but again I am not expecting that to be a major factor. The Finn has been serving very well on the grass courts and he will be looking to be more efficient with his performance behind that shot compared with how he played against Ivashka in Holland.

However, the head to head has shown that Ilya Ivashka has been more productive on the return of serve compared with Emil Ruusuvuori and that was the bottom line in Hertogenbosch as Ivashka beat this opponent for a fourth time in a row. In those wins, Ilya Ivashka has held 89% of his service games compared with Emil Ruusvuori's 50% mark and the former did not face a break point when these players met a couple of weeks ago.

The run in Queens will give Emil Ruusuvuori more confidence, but it may not be enough to bridge the gap in this match up and I think Ilya Ivashka can win and cover.

MY PICKS: Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tallon Griekspoor-Feliciano Lopez Over 22.5 Games @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kirsten Flipkens - 0.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Harriet Dart @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 0.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 19th)

A wet day in Birmingham means both Semi Finals and Final at that tournament will be played on the same day, but the other events have all managed to get through their Saturday schedules.

We have all of the Finals scheduled for Sunday on the same day the last events before Wimbledon are set to begin. I won't have any Picks from the First Round matches that will get those events underway on Sunday as first I concentrate on ending this week with something of a flourish.

Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 23.5 games: Despite the ban that is going to prevent Daniil Medvedev from playing at Wimbledon, the current World Number 1 has continued to shine on the grass courts. He will be playing in his second Final on the surface in two weeks and will also be competing in Mallorca to make sure the Ranking points are put in the bank before the move onto the hard courts in the build towards the US Open.

I would not be surprised if Daniil Medvedev decides to play a tournament or two in July to make sure he doesn't lose any match sharpness before looking to defend the Grand Slam title he won last season. For now his main focus is making sure he continues to perform at a high level on the grass courts, although Daniil Medvedev will also be looking to be much more competitive than he was in the upset loss last week in Hertogenbosch.

This has not always been the best match up for Daniil Medvedev having split four matches with Hubert Hurtkacz over the last twelve months. The first one of those was played between these two in an epic match at Wimbledon that lasted five sets and there really has not been much between two solid servers.

It has been a strong week for Hubert Hurkacz who has upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarter Final and then come from behind to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Semi Final. The character and mental strength shown by Hubert Hurkacz to win the match against the Australian without breaking serve once is going to be a huge factor in how far he can go at Wimbledon again, and I do think he has the serving power to keep this one competitive even in a two set loss.

Both of these players have produced very strong serving numbers in their run to the Halle Final and that is backed up by the fact that Daniil Medvedev has held 97% of his service games and Hubert Hurkacz has held 94% of his . You can't ignore the fact that Medvedev has faced a lot more break points than Hubert Hurkacz, but he has played the big points well and has held 88% of his service games played in the four matches against this opponent.

Daniil Medvedev has a huge advantage when it comes to the returning numbers in Halle this week, but Hubert Hurkacz is confident with his serve and has held 90% of his service games against the World Number 1. I do think there will be at least one tie-breaker needed in this one and the matches have been competitive enough to see three of the four needing a deciding set to determine the winner.

That is a real possibility in this Final and I do think both can be confident in the serving they have been producing for this match to go pretty long and cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 26-25, - 4.04 Units (106 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 18th)

It has been a difficult week.

And for about an hour on Friday, I felt things were just not going to get much better as two players I picked won the first set of their matches and were then beaten in three sets.

Both of those were at close to odds against plays (one was odds against) and one of the players had been up a break in the second set before falling away.

At that point I honestly thought this was going to be one of those weeks where bad fortune and bad Picks were going to combine to really batter the numbers.

But then things changed...

After a 1-2 start on Friday with those aforementioned three set defeats, the Tennis Picks surged to a 7-1 conclusion for the day and almost completely wiped out the deep hole the numbers had been in through the first four days of the week.

Even then I feel it could have been even better, but I have to be very happy with the outcome of the Quarter Final matches and now we are down to the final two days at the events being played this week.

Conditions were very difficult for the two Great Britain based tournaments on Friday, but Saturday looks to be cooler all around, especially at the WTA Birmingham event. However, rain is also expected both in Birmingham and London so both tournaments are expected to be impacted.

It will be much tougher in Germany though with the heatwave moving across Europe hitting this weekend in time for the Semi Final and Final matches in Berlin and Halle. You have to factor those into your plays, but most of the players left in the draws should be used to what they have to deal with.

Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios over 23.5 games: It has been hot in Halle all week, but the temperature rockets upwards over the weekend and I do think that is only going to favour the server even more than usual.

Both of these Semi Finalists have been dominant behind serve so far this week and I do think that both Hubert Hurkacz and Nick Kyrgios are likely going to keep that going against each other.

You have to give Nick Kyrgios the edge when it comes to the returning numbers this week in his run to the Semi Final, but he has struggled against the first serve of both Daniel Altmaier and Stefanos Tsitsipas before overwhelming Pablo Carreno Busta. While the earlier Rounds saw Hubert Hurkacz with his first serve percentage, he landed 65% of them in his Quarter Final upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime and that will be the key to any success that the Polish player is going to have in this match.

He has not been as consistent with the first serve as he would like, but found a rhythm on Friday and that will give Hubert Hurkacz every opportunity to get in front of the scoreboard and keep the pressure on Nick Kyrgios.

The Australian has played the big points well on the return of serve this week, which makes him dangerous, but he will need some help from Hubert Hurkacz to get into a position to break serve.

However, Nick Kyrgios will be very confident in his own serve and looking for that shot to put Hubert Hurkacz under pressure. The latter admitted he could not get a read of the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve in the Quarter Final and resorted to guessing, but it will be that much harder to produce effective returns against someone like Nick Kyrgios who is landing 64% of first serves an winning 83% of points behind that shot.

With a limited return, Hubert Hurkacz is going to have to serve well to make this a competitive match, but he showed he can handle the pressure of a serve-dominated match on Friday. A hot day in Halle is likely going to make the ball fly a little faster all around and I would expect to see at least one tie-breaker between these two very strong servers, especially as both Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz can be a little bit hit and miss with their return.

Both have been winning over 71% of their service points played and I would not be surprised if this is a match that comes down to one or two points in tie-breakers to determine the outcome. A place in the Final is going to mean plenty of motivation to take to the court, and it should mean even dropping the first set is not going to see heads drop and we may even need a decider to see who can earn their spot as a Finalist in Halle.

MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev-Oscar Otte Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-22, - 1.44 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1.57% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr (June 18th)

We should have had the return of Jermall Charlo this weekend, but the Middleweight bout against Maciej Sulecki has been postponed.

It will mean that we have not seen Jermall Charlo in the ring for over twelve months as he waited out an opportunity to face Canelo Alvarez, but that doesn't look like coming to fruition any time soon and the American needs to be more active.

His absence has come at a time when twin brother Jermell has become an Undisputed Champion in the Light Middleweight Division and arguably become the more sellable of the two. Considering where the two would have been placed a year ago, you can see how inactivity has hurt Jermall and we will have to wait a little while longer before he is involved in a big fight.

While this is feeling like a quieter weekend of Boxing after some of the solid shows we have had over the last couple of months, there is still a massive Undisputed fight taking place in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Dmitry Bivol has already shown the world the kind of calibre of Champions in this Division when he comfortably beat Canelo Alvarez, but Artur Beterbiev has long been considered the King of the 175ers.

Joe Smith Jr is another popular name and their Unification is going to move the Light Heavyweights that much closer to a Super Fight with all of the belts on the line either later this year or early in 2023.

Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr

Right now you would say there are three Light Heavyweights that will have to duke it out to see who is the best of the best in the 175 pound Division.

More critical people may even suggest it comes down to a straight shoot out between Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev to decide the King of the Light Heavyweights and that argument could be made when you think Bivol holds a win over Joe Smith Jr, the opponent facing Beterbiev this weekend who also holds one of the World Title Belts.

Gilberto Ramirez and Callum Smith may have something to say about who should be the headliner in the Division, but the reality is that we are likely one fight away from determining the best fighter in this weight class. And that will be the winner of this one on Saturday facing off against Dmitry Bivol with all four World Titles on the line.

I am hopeful we will get there and this Unification on Saturday has all of the makings of a brutal slugfest.

Not many would choose to stand trade with Artur Beterbiev who has yet to hear the final bell in his pro career and who has fought and stopped some solid names. However, one person who shouldn't be too hard to find is Joe Smith Jr, who buzzed Dmitry Bivol late on in what was otherwise a one-sided win for the WBA World Champion.

That power cannot be underestimated and we did see Beterbiev put down by Callum Johnson and look pretty hurt, although that is the only time we have really seen that happen.

There is no doubting the heart that Joe Smith Jr will likely show too, but I cannot help think that he is not going to have faced someone who hits as hard as Artur Beterbiev. Standing in front of the Russian fighter just seems a bad move all around, but Smith Jr only fights one way and I think that is going to lead to a dismantling and an eventual stoppage in favour of Artur Beterbiev.

Joe Smith Jr has to be respected and has some decent wins behind him, but I think a crude, pretty basic style is going to be tailor-made for Artur Beterbiev who hits plenty hard.

Artur Beterbiev is 37 years old now though and you always have to wonder if Father Time will catch up with on any given night. He hasn't had a lot of wear and tear on his body though, but I do think the age has meant he has taken a little longer to perhaps get into his groove and really start digging home with the big shots.

Only two of his first fourteen opponents were able to make it out of the Fifth Round, but each of his last three have lasted at least Nine Rounds. Some of that is down to the increased level of competition, but Adam Deines and Marcus Browne are perhaps a tier or two below Joe Smith Jr in terms of their ability to stick in a fight and I do think the American will not go down easily.

Ultimately everyone has eventually gone down.

Only one fighter has even made it to the last Round against Artur Beterbiev, but I would be surprised if he is able to get Joe Smith Jr out of there much earlier than his last three opponents. Joe Smith Jr was stopped in the Fourth Round early in his career, and there was a feeling that Dmitry Bivol could have forced a stoppage in the second half of their fight before being buzzed late on.

I just don't think Artur Beterbiev is nearly as likely to 'coast' in this one as it felt Dmitry Bivol was doing late on and I think he will get this fight won in the second half of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

The main undercard bout features stand out amateur Robeisy Ramirez continue his pro career.

He has bounced back from a debut defeat and Ramirez is clearly on a fast track to the top of the Featherweight Division, but this is not going to be an easy test against the undefeated American Abraham Nova.

Both will feel this is a step up in their level of competition, but the feeling is that Ramirez has the skills to edge past Nova in what should be a very good undercard bout. He has made up for that sole loss on the record by beating Adan Gonzalez over Six Rounds, and I just think he will flash at times to impress the judges, although the Boxing Pick will solely come from the main event.

On Friday evening, we have the latest of a series of boxing events that are going to be shown on UK terrestrial television that are being promoted by Wasserman Boxing.

It is the chance to try and build some big local names and two fighters are on the same card in Liverpool looking to put a spark back in their careers.

Both Josh Kelly and Nathan Gorman were earning some big headlines before devastating Knock Out losses on their resumes.

Josh Kelly certainly had a big reputation and looked to be fast tracked into the World Title scene, but after a fifteen month lay off during the Covid pandemic, he was obliterated by David Avanesyan in Six Rounds. The feeling was that the fight was coming too soon, but the manner of the loss would have really hurt and he has not been out since that defeat in February 2021.

He returns having had an opponent pull out of a bout at the last minute last month, but Josh Kelly is now operating at the Light Middleweight limit. You have to expect he is going to be given an opponent that can help shake off some of the ring rust, although they have picked Peter Kramer who has been pulled down from the Middleweight Division.

Peter Kramer has fought a couple of times in the UK over the last ten months and took opponents to the cards on both occasions, although those were over Six Rounds and this has been scheduled for Ten. His two previous stoppages have come pretty early, but one of those was in the Fourth Round against Sam Eggington and it may take Josh Kelly a little bit longer to really get his timing and feeling back in the ring.

The layers expect an early night, but Josh Kelly may need a little longer than that and I think it is worth a small interest in this one getting a few Rounds under his belt before finding a Stoppage somewhere in the middle of the contest.

Nathan Gorman's career has really stalled since his early defeat to Daniel Dubois and this is only his third fight since that defeat all the way back in July 2019.

It has been fifteen months since we last saw Gorman in the ring when he was beating Pavel Sour in the Second Round and he is fighting another Czech on his return.

Tomas Salek has won the Czech Heavyweight Title and defended that in a Ten Rounder on the cards against the aforementioned Sour last time out.

However, Salek should not pose too many problems for Nathan Gorman having been stopped in the Third Round by Kash Ali and I expect the fast hands of the British fighter to get this one done pretty quickly. If his promoters have any sense, Nathan Gorman will be fighting at least two more times in 2022, and perhaps even throwing a third fight, and the boxer himself has talked about getting into the mix in a deepish Heavyweight Division so will know he needs to be as active as possible.

I am not expecting too many problems for Gorman and I will look for this contest to end before the Fourth Round begins.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Josh Kelly to Win Between 5-6 @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Nathan Gorman-Tomas Salek Under Four Rounds @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 24-36, + 20.86 Units (109 Units Staked, + 19.14% Yield)