NBA Picks December 2012

The first month of the NBA season went pretty well, although I have kept my powder dry in the last three weeks as I was just hitting a poor run of form and decided it was better to take a watching brief rather than going 'chasing'.

It has been a very interesting start to the new season, particularly for a New York Knicks fan as myself with the team currently having the best record in the Eastern Conference and already knocked off Miami twice this season, once without Carmelo Anthony.

The Heat have actually been a little lethargic at times to open the season with the knowledge that they can likely beat 85% of the teams in the NBA with a little burst of quality and they have sleep-walked through the majority of games and are doing just enough to win.

However, they are at least winning, while the LA Lakers have made a horrible start to the new season. Injuries are hurting them and exposing a roster that doesn't have a lot of depth and I think they will likely go through more teething problems before things settle down. I still think the Lakers will make the Play Offs, but they don't look the team to beat in the Western Conference... That remains the Oklahoma City Thunder who have suffered no noticeable hangover from losing in the NBA Finals last June and the fact that they have lost James Harden just days before the new season began.

This is still very early in the new season and the NBA is currently playing second fiddle to the NFL and the season won't settle down into a real shape until the new calender year.

December 11th

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The New York Knicks may have the best record in the Eastern Conference at this early stage of the new season, but one result that would have grated on the management and the fans would have been the loss to the Brooklyn Nets earlier in the season.

The chance for redemption is high in this one for the Knicks as they are playing the better basketball of the two teams. I also think the Knicks will not be overlooking this game for the visit of the LA Lakers on Thursday night and they have won 3 of their last 4 road games since the loss in Brooklyn.

The Nets have just been off in recent games with 3 consecutive home losses, and I just think the scoring power of the Knicks carries them over in this one and level the season series at 1-1.


December 12th
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: The San Antonio Spurs are once again one of the hotter regular season teams a year after finishing with the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference and I think they will be too strong for the Utah Jazz in what is traditionally a difficult road game for teams.

However, the Spurs have won 3 of their last 4 games here in Utah and they have been scoring a lot of points coming into this one. Greg Popovich also seems to get the best out of his team when they are due to play on back to back nights, going 19-1 straight up in the first of those games, including winning 10 in a row.

San Antonio are 8-2 against the spread in that 10 game winning run and I think they improve that here.


December 14th
Both of the previous games I went with were a couple rolls of the ball away from being winners, but instead I got a push and a loser so decided to take off yesterday with the small choices I had.

Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the Orlando Magic in the underdog role to keep this game close, even though they have been inconsistent all season.

However, I like the idea that Golden State Warriors could be on an emotional letdown spot following their shocking win over the Miami Heat a couple of nights ago. The Warriors have been very good this season, but it could be tough for them to keep their level up against a much weaker team than Miami.

Golden State have won 5 games in a row, but the last team to beat them was Orlando on the West Coast. The Warriors also have a shocking 1-10 run in the first of back to back nights play while Orlando are 7-4 in that same situation.


Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed to be even more focused to right the wrongs of losing in the NBA Finals last season and are not missing James Harden nor suffering from any hangover from their defeat to the Miami Heat.

They have won 9 straight games, going 7-2 against the spread, and they have three days before they have to play again so they can focus completely on this game. The close win over the New Orleans Hornets will have focused them more and I think they take that out on the Kings.

Sacramento have been beaten comfortably in their last 2 games and I think the Thunder have too much scoring power for them. This is the last of a four game road trip and they may just be looking forward to playing at home and could be beaten with a bit of ease in this one.


Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Denver are one of the best home teams in the NBA so I was a little surprised that they are only giving up 1.5 points in this one against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has lost 3 of their last 5 games in a very promising start to the season.

Much of Memphis' promising start has come from their games at home and although they have won at Oklahoma City, defeats at San Antonio and the LA Clippers suggests this will be another tough ask for them.

Denver did lose their last home game against the Grizzlies, but are 18-2 straight up against them in the last 20 times they have hosted them, while also being 13-7 against the spread so I'll back them here.


December 15th
LA Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The LA Clippers are the best team in Los Angeles and it has been a long time since people could say that... They have been in very good form and the additional rest they have before this game should stand them in good stead for this one.

The Clippers have been playing very effectively defensively and I think they can make enough stops to let their Offense take over this game. The Bucks played last night and they are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games when playing the second of back to back nights play.

LA have not played well here in Milwaukee in recent games, but I think the Clippers have enough on both sides of the court to think they change that here.


December 20th
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The Miami Heat continue to sleep-walk through games at times this season, but they should be focused to play the short-handed Dallas Mavericks after losing the NBA Finals in 2011 to this team.

The Heat have beaten Dallas in the two games since those Finals, but the Mavericks are definitely a better team at home than they are on the road so it won't be easy. However, the spot looks a good one for the Heat to have a statement win on national TV and I think they cover the spread.


December 22nd
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat are in a good spot here as they managed to rest their starters in the blow out of the Dallas Mavericks and have a few days to prepare for their next game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Miami have been playing better defensively and I think they make life tough for Utah in this one, a team that may be looking forward to ending their Eastern road trip and heading back home.

Utah are also just 2-9 in their last 11 games when playing the first of back to back games and they are just 1-9-1 against the spread in those games.

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The spread shows how close the layers think this game will be, although I am of the belief that the Golden State Warriors will be a little too good for the LA Lakers and win the game.

However, instead I am going to back the over 208.5 total points in this one- the over is 6-3 in the last 9 at Golden State between these teams and both have been scoring plenty of points but also struggling in defensive situations.

I am expecting both sides to crack the 105 point mark to see this one go over the total points.


December 23rd
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks Pick: I like the New York Knicks to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves who will be missing Kevin Love in this game.

The Knicks have been very strong at the Garden and I think the Minnesota team could be a little flat after snapping the Oklahoma City Thunder winning streak. This is also a road game between home games and I think New York's scoring power will be too much to overcome.


December 25th
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I am taking a couple of underdogs to give themselves Christmas cheer in the NBA, starting with the Boston Celtics as they visit Brooklyn to take on the Nets.

Boston should be fired up after getting into a series of pushing matches with the Nets in their last meeting, one which saw Rajon Rondo ejected and then suspended. This veteran squad is also looking to avoid their longest losing run on the road since 2007.

I also don't trust Brooklyn who have struggled in the role of favourites and who are struggling to put teams away with consistency.


New York Knicks @ LA Lakers Pick: I am also backing my favourite team, the New York Knicks to at least push the LA Lakers in this game.

Carmelo Anthony will likely have a big game to 'impress' former Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni and I also think there is more chemistry in the New York team at this moment in time. Granted, the Lakers have won 4 in a row, but they could easily have lost the last 2 games and I think the Knicks impose their slower tempo on proceedings while also being able to deal with the Lakers Offense having seen it for some time in New York.

I would be surprised if this isn't close until the final buzzer so the points look healthy.


Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls: One of the hottest teams in the NBA at the moment, the Houston Rockets look like they are being given a lot of points in this one and I think the highest scoring team in the League keeps it close against one of the premier Defenses in the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago have been playing well despite laying an egg in the blow out loss at Atlanta, but that was a bad emotional spot for them. I think they will put in a huge effort in this one, but Houston are scoring too many points to be given this head start and I'll take them to cover.


December 26th
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I like the home team's chances of covering the spread in this one as I think the personnel, particularly Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, do provide a match up problem for the Brooklyn Nets' best players in Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

Brooklyn also took a bit of a beat down mentally from the Boston Celtics and have been awful against Milwaukee recently. In fact, they have lost 12 in a row in the series with 6 defeats in a row when they have visited the Bucks.

All of those 6 wins have come by at least double-digits and I think Milwaukee are too good for them here.


Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: This is a terrible spot for the Houston Rockets as the game is sandwiched between the Christmas Day game at Chicago and the visit to the San Antonio Spurs, but 5.5 points head start does look a touch high.

Houston are playing with a lot of momentum and they have the scoring power to at least keep this game close. They also have a decent record at Minnesota, despite losing their last game here, and I think the youthful nature of the Rockets team will be enough to see them through this one.

Hopefully the Rockets realise that beating a potential rival for a Play Off berth is enough to concentrate their minds between much more 'glamourous' games.


December 27th
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Dallas have been struggling all season and they are the kind of team that seems to drop their heads when they fall behind. That could be exposed by a powerful Offense like the Oklahoma City Thunder who will be looking to get back to winning ways.

The Thunder were involved in another loss to the Miami Heat on Christmas Day, but they have been very good at home and will be looking for their 11th win. I just think they have more chances to get things going in this one and I like their chances of covering this double-digit spread.


December 28th
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I just feel the absence of Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen will inspire LeBron James to take the Miami Heat on his back and he will help them continue their recent dominance of the Detroit Pistons.

The Heat are playing as well as anybody in the NBA at the moment and they will want to prove they can get things going on the road and win their 3rd in a row on their travels. The spread looks a reasonable one for them to cover, even on the road.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Atlanta Hawks should be able to win their 4th straight at Cleveland in this one as they should have a big edge when it comes to the Center spot, while Josh Smith looked very comfortable in their win over the Detroit Pistons.

The Hawks should be a little more focused on the road against one of the poorer teams in the Eastern Conference than they were against Detroit and they will want to put the record straight after losing at home against Cleveland earlier this season.

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: This looks the perfect emotional let down spot for the Dallas Mavericks who should have beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder last night and now play a team that had won 3 straight at the American Airlines Center before their last meeting here.

Denver should be much more confident from their beating of the LA Lakers in their last gmae and I just feel the Nuggets will be able to bring that in here and maybe take advantage of a tired Dallas team.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Golden State Warriors look like a team that will have too much scoring power for the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that may be over-rated from their one win over Memphis in their last game.

The 76ers have not been great on the road this season and could be short-handed which leaves me favouring the home side to cover.


December 29th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Pick: I just think this is a tough spot for the Houston Rockets who are playing their fourth game in five days and they are just off a tough loss at the San Antonio Spurs last night.

Oklahoma City haven't been playing that well, but they have players that can expose a Rockets Defense that allows a lot of points and they may just have enough to cover the spread.


December 31st
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the chances of the Miami Heat to turn around their recent road defeats in this one as they face a short-handed Orlando Magic team that are struggling to keep up with their opponents.

Orlando will make it a fight as this is an in-State rivalry, but there is too much in this Heat team to continue performing badly on the road and I like them to cover the big spread.


Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both of these teams are capable of putting up big points and I think this will certainly be a high-scoring game.

However, I like the Houston Rockets to cover as I think the Atlanta team have played a lot of basketball while being short-handed and they have regularly struggled in visits to this part of Texas.


Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Spurs have been playing as good basketball as anyone at the moment and I think they are too experienced for a Brooklyn Nets team that has struggled to find an identity.

The Spurs have dominated the Nets in recent games in the series and I think they get away from them in this one too.

MY PICKS: 11/12 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/12 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Denver Nuggets - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/12 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/12 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Miami Heat - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Golden State Warriors-LA Lakers Over 208.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/12 New York Knicks - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Houston Rockets + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Houston Rockets + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/12 Atlanta Hawks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/12 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/12 San Antonio Spurs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Miami Heat - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
31/12 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

December Update: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units

November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 2013: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NFL Week 14 Picks 2012

Sometimes you just have to take your medicine, but the last two weeks has really bothered me with the number of crappy things that have happened to my picks that has left me with two terrible weeks under the belt.

Last week was probably the worst of all as I only liked three picks and all three let me down in ridiculous ways: New Orleans lost by 10 in Atlanta, but should have covered and maybe even won the game as they managed to put up a lot more yards than the Falcons. Just to rub it in though, the Saints scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery in the 4th Quarter which was rightly taken away.

While that officiating was correct, the week before the officials screwed up the spot in the Baltimore Ravens win at San Diego and allowed the Ravens to win the game and beat out my pick again.

Back to last week, Dallas are up 11 points and have run the clock down to 30 seconds left and are punting the ball back to the Eagles who have no time outs left... All they have to do is not give up a punt return touchdown and the Cowboys will likely win the game as there isn't much Nick Foles has done in the last Quarter to suggest he can produce a scoring drive.

It was not to be as Dallas allow the punt return with at least 4 players in a position to make a tackle and it feels like the millionth time that the Cowboys have screwed up a cover by a lack on intensity in tackling and shooting themselves in the foot.

Then the final rub was in the New York Giants game where the Giants dominated the game in time of possession but kept killing themselves with penalties to prevent drives from turning into touchdowns- let me make this statistic clear... It was the most penalties given up by New York in TWO years and I would say the majority of them came on the Offensive side of the ball and the Giants ended up 1 point losers.


Anyway, I had to vent a little as that has ruined all the good work from Week 11 and these are the picks for the coming week.


Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins Pick: I like the underdog Baltimore Ravens to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:

First , Baltimore are a team that has regularly bounced back from losses and haven't lost 2 straight games since 2009. They are also 15-8 against the spread in their last 23 games following a home loss.

Second, I understand it was a tough emotional loss for the Ravens last week against Pittsburgh, but they are still in with a shot of finishing in one of the top two seeds in the AFC so I can't imagine they will overlook this game, while Washington are off 3 successive Divisional wins and could have a let down moment.

Third, I just don't trust Washington as the home favourite considering they are 1-7 against the spread in that spot in recent seasons.

However, Robert Griffin III is playing so well at the moment that I won't go too deep on this pick, especially with the Baltimore injuries to consider on the Defensive side of the ball.


San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I'll back the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Steelers know they cannot afford to drop any games against AFC teams with their best route into the Play Offs likely going to come through the Wild Card spot. The return of Ben Roethlisberger makes them a more dangerous team going into the post-season.

Second, the Chargers are out of the Play Off race and have looked like a team that isn't focused at the moment with the expected Head Coach change up coming.

Third, San Diego also have a poor record in the Eastern Time Zone for an early game, going 5-8 against the spread in that spot in recent games.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Colts have dominated the recent series between these two Divisional rivals and have already knocked off the Titans on the road this season.

Second, I think Andrew Luck will make more big plays and less mistakes than Jake Locker and that could be the difference between a cover and not.

Third, Tennessee have struggled when playing teams with winning records under Mike Munchak, going 2-8 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.

Fourth, this is the third Divisional game in a row for the Titans so they could be a little physically worn out, while the Colts should be on a high after their come from behind win against the Detroit Lions last week and with an AFC Wild Card spot within their grasp.


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: This is a big Divisional game with Play Off implications, but I am backing the Chicago Bears to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Bears beat down the Vikings earlier this season at home and they have won 6 in a row in the series, including on their last 2 visits to Minnesota, while covering the spread in all of those games.

Second, the continuing absence of Percy Harvin is huge for the Vikings and even the fact that Chicago are missing Tim Jennings and Brian Urlacher from their Defense, I still think they can cause Christian Ponder to turn the ball over.

Third, after the fast start to the season, Minnesota have come off the pace in recent weeks and I think they are wearing down on both sides of the ball, although Adrian Peterson is playing at an exceptionally high level.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I like the home underdog to do enough to keep this close for the following reasons:

First, since Cam Newton has arrived at Carolina, the Panthers have been close in all 3 games against the Falcons including a 2 point loss earlier this season.

Second, I think the Panthers can also have more consistent success moving the ball in this one and I also think they are going to leave everything on the line with this being the last big home game they play this season in an otherwise disappointing season.

Third, Atlanta have virtually got the Number 1 seed in the NFC locked up, but I think they may also have motivated Carolina when Matt Ryan told them to 'get off his fucking field' earlier in the season in that 2 point win and I think it could be a tough day for him.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, the Eagles are still giving up far too many big plays in the passing game and I think the likes of Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Dallas Clark could all have big games in this one.

Second, how do Philadelphia get up for this game after putting in all they have in their loss to Dallas last week when they led for much of the game?

Third, these two teams are at opposite ends of the market when it comes to results against the spread with Tampa Bay covering a lot in recent weeks and the Eagles being on a 1-6 run.


Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I'll have a small interest in the Miami Dolphins to stay within the spread for the following reasons:

First, Miami are one of the better road underdogs in the NFL and this looks a lot of points to be giving them despite the trip out West. The Dolphins are 23-9-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last few seasons.

Second, this game comes right in the middle of a tough set for the 49ers and it is easy to think they could overlook the Dolphins after back to back road games at New Orleans and St Louis (where they lost last week) and travelling to New England and Seattle following this game.

Not a lot of reasons for this pick, but it is easy to think the 49ers have a let down spot and not necessary go for a win that covers a big spread.


New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Pick: Drew Brees owes me after pretty much knocking me out of two Fantasy pools thanks to his performance at Atlanta last week and I think he can bounce back in this one for the following reasons:

First, both Defenses have struggled against the pass so I think this has all the makings of a game that could be decided by which team has the ball last in the contest... Getting more than a field goal in that situation looks very generous.

Second, New Orleans have played well against the Giants and seem to match up well against them, winning the last 3 in a row although 2 of those were in the Superdome.

Third, I just think the Brees performance against Atlanta will inspire him to have a big game against this New York Giants Secondary on Sunday and maybe even get close to pulling the upset outright.

Fourth, the Giants are a poor home favourite and are just 6-11-1 against the spread in that situation when playing non-Divisional opponents at home.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am backing the road underdog to keep this game close for the following reasons:

First, Detroit have recently given Aaron Rodgers plenty of issues and they have a Defensive front that will cause this Offensive Line all sort of problems.

Second, the Lions have been putting up a lot of yards at the moment and I think they can expose a Green Bay Secondary that has given up a lot of yards, while Matt Stafford should have time to hook up with Calvin Johnson without Clay Matthews in the line up.

Third, the injuries on the Packers Defense will give the Lions a chance to even grab a backdoor cover in this one and this is the last game where they can have a real impact on the Division (Detroit play Chicago in Week 17, but the Bears could already have a Play Off place wrapped up by then and it wouldn't be as important as this game to the fans).


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bwin (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Detroit Lions + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks (December 8-10)

Let's face facts here- there is only one game of importance to me this weekend and I am beginning to feel like a nervous wreck in anticipation of it.

It's the calm before the storm and I just know it is going to be a game that puts me through the wringer.

These are my picks from the weekend football after a pretty good start to December. Let us hope that continues as the month moves on.


Wigan Athletic v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is a big game for both sides, especially for Queens Park Rangers who could be dead and buried in the Premier League with yet another defeat.

However, I think QPR will create chances in this game against a Wigan team that are down to their bare bones when it comes to defensive personnel in this one and they are not exactly a solid defensive team anyway with 7 of their last 8 home games in the Premier League seeing them concede at least 2 goals.

On the other hand, it is likely that Wigan will look to use the old saying of 'attack being the best form of defence' and I think they will also get opportunities as long as they not given another harsh sending off as they did at Newcastle United last Monday night.

Wigan have only failed to score against Chelsea and Manchester City this season at home and have beaten Reading and West Ham United here so this looks a game that has all the makings of goals and that will be my pick.


Sunderland v Chelsea Pick: Rafa Benitez did earn his first win as manager of Chelsea in the simple beating of Nordsjaelland during the week, but it will be a different test for them at the Stadium of Light. However, this does seem like a good time to play Sunderland as they have really been struggling for form and may be more interested in their big home game against Reading coming up during the week.

Chelsea have a good record here at Sunderland and I think they will likely have a bit too much for a team that has struggled to score goals all season. Sunderland have only scored 3 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions, and even one of those was an own goal.

However, Chelsea haven't been the best defensively so I expect Sunderland to have some chances to up their goal tally in this one. It is hard to trust either one of these sides, but I just feel the added importance of Chelsea earning a win during the week, even in  a futile effort to remain in the Champions League, will help them get through here.

I can see Chelsea picking up the three points, but by the minimum of margins.


Southampton v Reading Pick: After watching Reading at first hand last week against Manchester United, it is clear that their defending leaves a lot to be desired, while they are effective going forward.

With Southampton having a similar policy, this looks like a game that could be one of the higher scoring ones over the course of the whole weekend.

Neither team is better defensively than going forward so neither will sit back, although sometimes a 'relegation six pointer' can be tense affairs that stifles the creative players as managers are scared to lose rather than going to win the game. In saying that, I don't think either Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins fall into that category and I think there is every chance we see at least 4 goals shared in this one.

The corresponding fixture ended 1-3 to Reading last season when both were promoted to the Premier League and I'll be looking for goals in this one.


Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: The biggest game of the weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and I am both not looking forward to it and asking what it to be brought on.

I would be surprised if either of these teams decide to go all out attack for this fixture and am particularly concerned that Sir Alex Ferguson will set out United to defend in a manner similar to the game in April that effectively handed City the inside track to the Premier League title.

If the performance is as tepid on that evening, it will be inevitable that City will find the breakthrough and likely win the game. However, their swagger is not the same as at this stage last season when they were blitzing teams off the park and Arsenal, Everton and Swansea City have all limited City to just 1 goal here.

I know all the talk ahead of the game will be the amount of attacking talent both teams possess, but even United with all that ability have been held goalless at Everton and Norwich City this season and I just think the chances for goals in this game are not as great as the layers seem to think.

I am actually expecting a tight game that may only be decided by a single goal or finish as a 1-1 draw... The last 6 League games here have all be low-scoring games and I think we see more of the same on Sunday.


Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of Tottenham Hotspur supporters I know seem to be upset with the team performances and it seems the results they are obtaining are a form of smoke and mirrors to whether the team actually deserves those points.

They face the draw specialists of the Premier League in Everton and will be missing the services of Gareth Bale, a big loss in a game where the counter attack could be effective as Everton push forward.

Everton have 8 draws from their League games this season and have drawn 3 of their last 4 at Goodison Park, but they have been unfortunate to an extent. They just haven't put teams away when they have them under the cosh, but I think they will be too strong for Spurs in this one.

I just feel Spurs are a touch vulnerable at the back and the likes of Maruoane Fellaini and Nikica Jelavic will be able to cause plenty of problems. Everton have also beaten Spurs the last 2 times they have visited Goodison and I like the home side at odds against for a small interest.


West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: West Ham United were really impressive against Chelsea in the second half last week and if they can take that form into this game, I really fancy them to beat Liverpool and I don't quite no why they are the underdogs in this game.

Liverpool are missing their one and only centre forward in Luis Suarez and I struggle to see how they will score the goals without his presence in the side. Suarez either creates or scores the majority of the goals that Liverpool have scored so his absence is huge and there is a chance that Liverpool will not be able to play with a recognised striker.

That could give West Ham the chance to get on the front foot and I think they have been playing really well in recent weeks and could ride the momentum of last week to another win in front of their own fans this week.

At the prices, it would be silly not to have a small interest in the home side to win this game.


MY PICKS: Wigan Athletic-Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chelsea to win by 1 Goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Stan James (1 Unit)
Southampton-Reading Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



December Update: 9-7, + 3.70 Units (18 Units Staked, + 20.6 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks (December 4-6)

This is the final round of games in the Champions League and the Europa League Group Stage and that does mean there are a number of teams that will rest players in anticipation of domestic League games with most of the scenarios for qualification already completed.

Therefore, you have to be careful in trying to second guess managers and what their policies will be and I would certainly suggest listening to as many press conferences as possible to get an idea as to what each manager is thinking ahead of their games.

Some teams also don't put so much faith in finishing top of their individual Groups as others, especially when you consider Real Madrid will be a 'second seed' when it comes to the draw which takes place on Thursday 20th December for the last 16. As Jose Mourinho said, it isn't much of a 'reward' to win a Group and potentially be drawn with Real Madrid who are certainly one of the leading contenders for the Champions League title this season.

While there are some games that will see much changed line ups, we also can see some strange results at this stage or convenient scores set up by teams... Shakhar Donetsk and Juventus could easily play out a draw which would send both sides through to the last 16 at the expense of Chelsea, regardless of what the current European Champions do in their final game against Nordsjaelland. The layers are aware of the situation so the draw is priced at odds on, prices you would never see in other games.


I have also updated the November final tally and you can see it was a disappointing month, but the season is still heavily in the black and the early results from December have been positive. This is going to be a busy month with the Christmas period meaning a lot of games going through a short period of time so let''s hope the first days of the month was a sign of things to come going forward.


Paris Saint-Germain v Porto Pick: This is one of the few games that has a real meaning behind it as top spot in the Group is up for grabs- Porto will win the Group as long as they avoid defeat in the French capital, while Paris Saint-Germain can steal top spot with a win.

Carlo Ancelotti is under a lot of pressure at Paris after a huge spending spree in the Summer has failed to ignite the results that would have been expecting in the French domestic League and that does mean he is looking for positives wherever he can find them. His side has won 7 of their last 9, but the 2 exceptions have been defeats and both of those have come in the last 4 games.

I think PSG have been a little vulnerable in recent games and that should lead to one of the more exciting games in the evening and I like the chances of goals in the game as both sides could create chances in this one.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: While all the talk in Madrid is about whether or not Jose Mourinho will be in charge of the club next Summer, Real Madrid are still concentrating on winning this Group game that doesn't have a great deal of meaning to them.

The side are locked into second spot in the Group no matter what happens in the final games, but that doesn't mean there will be sweeping changes to the first team and the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kerim Benzema will be playing in this one.

Ajax were outclassed when they first met Real Madrid in Amsterdam and they have been comfortably beaten on their two previous visits to this ground in the last two seasons. Borussia Dortmund were also far too good for Ajax in their last game and I just think it will be a tough day in the office for the Dutch side.


Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City Pick: This might be a dead rubber for Borussia Dortmund, but both teams will still have pride to play for in what could be an entertaining game on Tuesday evening.

Both sides are certainly better going forward than they are defensively, and I think there is a reasonable chance that we will see space in this game and that could lead to a high-scoring contest.

Manchester City have been saying all the right things in the build up to this game and Roberto Mancini must be feeling some pressure from his superiors with another disappointing Champions League campaign under his belt.

Therefore, even getting the consolation prize of a Europa League spot is something that City will want to pick up and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are at least 4 goals in the game at a decent price.


Montpellier v Schalke Pick: Montpellier may be knocked out of the Champions League and Europa League, but they will be playing for pride in this one as no one wants to end the Group Stage without a win.

They have lost both home games by the same 1-2 scoreline and Schalke certainly have the motivation and the form to think they may be the third side to manage that. However, the German side have lost 3 straight away games domestically which reduces my enthusiasm somewhat in backing them to win this one.

Schalke away games remain high-scoring affairs as they have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games while they had scored at least 2 goals in 9 straight away games before only managing 1 in their last 2 games.

I think this could be the third high-scoring game of the evening and at odds against it looks worth chancing.


Chelsea v Nordsjaelland Pick: Rafa Benitez was a terrible choice as manager for Chelsea as far as I am concerned and the fans are still upset with the side performing really badly in their first 3 games under the Spaniard's watch.

However, this looks a perfect tonic to their woes which has seen them record just 1 win in their last 11 games in all competitions, despite the fact that Chelsea are very much looking like their defence of the Champions League ends at the Group Stage this season.

Nordsjaelland have conceded at least 4 goals in 3 of their 5 Group Stage games in the Champions League and they do look vulnerable at the back. I expect a strong side to take to the field to build confidence for Chelsea in this game and I think they will likely pull away to a convincing victory in this one.


Manchester United v Cluj: This is a tough game to read as Manchester United will be making wholesale changes to their team ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend. Cluj are a decent counter-attacking side that will likely cause problems for United during this game, but I expect Old Trafford will be a little daunting for them and it will be tough for them to pick up a result that could potentially see them through to the last 16.

I don't have a great angle and insight into the game with changes likely to make this is a 'bitty' game, but Sir Alex Ferguson has suggested Wayne Rooney will start and that is where I will focus my attention.

Rooney got a brace at Reading and he is the kind of player that goes on runs of really good form in front of goal and I think those goals at the Majedski Stadium will set him up over this Christmas period. He will be the designated penalty taker on Wednesday night and will also probably behind any free kicks within shooting range so he looks a lively contender to open the scoring in this one as long as United don't decide to fall behind yet again this season.


Bayern Munich v BATE Borisov Pick: Bayern Munich were embarrassed when they fell to a 3-1 loss in Belarus earlier on in the Group, but they have recovered to the point that a win in this one will ensure they top the Group.
So with revenge for the earlier loss and real motivation behind them to top the Group, I think BATE Borisov could be in a real spot of bother here. Remember when Basel stunned Bayern Munich with a 1-0 win in the last 16 last season? The Bavarians decided to teach them a lesson with a 7-0 home win and they also smashed 6 past Lille earlier this campaign.

I don't think Bayern will score 6 or 7 tonight, but can see them reaching 4 or 5 as BATE have looked a little suspect defensively in their last 3 Champions League games and have already secured a Europa League berth. The home side may be resting some players after a gruelling game with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but I think the prize on offer to win the Group keeps them focused and revenge will be theirs.


Tottenham Hotspur v Panathinaikos Pick: This is the first pick of two from the Europa League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong for their Greek opponents and should be able to win the game with a little room to spare.

It is true that Spurs only need a point to progress, but it can be dangerous to play for that scoreline as a Panthinaikos win would see them through at Tottenham's expense.

However, Panathinaikos are not exactly the best travellers when it comes to European games and they have already lost 3-0 at both Maribor and Lazio in this Group already to make it three consecutive losses by that scoreline in this competition. They were also beaten 2-0 at Malaga in the Champions League Play Offs.

Gareth Bale is out, but Emmanuel Adebayor is back and this Spurs team still has goals in it. I also expect they could cause plenty of problems on the counter attack with the away side needing a win to go through and they could use the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe to get away another killer goal.

All in all, the 2.35 that Spurs win by at least 2 goals looks a little too generous to me.


Udinese v Liverpool Pick: After playing a lot of fringe players for much of this competition, Brendan Rodgers has taken a strong side to Italy in a bid to help Liverpool achieve the result they need to progress through to the last 32 of the Europa League. It is simple for Liverpool in this one- win and they are through, draw and they need Young Boys to fail to beat an already qualified Anzhi Machachkala, lose and they are out.

Udinese have no permutations to worry about as they have already been knocked out of the tournament, but they are looking to build some momentum after a poor run of form saw them win their first game in 8 at the weekend.

They have insisted they will get on the front foot in this one and this does have the makings of a high-scoring game.

Udinese's last 4 home games in all competitions has seen at least 3 goals scored and 3 of their 5 games in this Group have also seen that number covered. Liverpool themselves have also played in high-scoring games in 3 of their 5 in the Group while 5 of their last 8 away in all competitions has seen goals.

With Liverpool needing to obtain the win to be sure of their place in the last 32, I expect them on the attack to ensure that is done and this could be a game with space to be exploited... However, we have to hope Anzhi don't take a big lead over Young Boys in the other game as that could be infiltrated to the players on the pitch and Liverpool may be more content to settle with whatever positive result they have at that time.


MY PICKS: PSG-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Borussia Dortmund-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Montpellier-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Udinese-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)



December Update: 4-3, + 2.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 26.1 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2012

It is the end of the season today as teams play their Championship Games while other schools finish their regular season in the hope that they will be playing in a Bowl Game in the coming six weeks.

These are my picks from the final week of the regular season.


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Pick: I am going to back the Cowboys to cover the spread in an entertaining game for the following reasons:

First, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have dominated the recent series, winning 6 in a row by 32 points per game.

Second, the Cowboys look the better team on both sides of the ball although I am expecting a lot of points in the game. I just feel they will make more stops when it is all said and done.

Third, the Cowboys are 11-2 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons.


Kansas Jayhawks @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll take West Virginia to end a disappointing season on a high ahead of their Bowl Game and back them to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I fully expect the Mountaineers to move the chains all day and score plenty of points and I don't believe Kansas will be able to keep up despite the porous Defense that West Virginia have.

Second, Kansas have struggled all season and don't exactly get up for being the road underdog as they are 2-7-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.

Third, the Mountaineers do usually finish their home season on a high; they are 11-3 straight up in that spot and I just think they overmatch the Jayhawks in this one.


Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: I like the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, not just because of their great name, but for the following reasons:

First, Louisiana don't have the best record against the Owls, but they do look the better units on both sides of the ball tonight and that should help them just about pull away at the end of the game.

Second, there is also an advantage for the Ragin Cajuns at the Quarter Back position and that should see them win by more than a touchdown.

Third, I expect Louisiana to try and build some momentum ahead of their Bowl Game and I think they will be a little too strong for Florida Atlantic in this Conference game.


Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I will back the home underdog to at least keep this game close for the following reasons:

First, Connecticut may be 2-6 in this series, but they have blown out Cincinnati in 2 games in a row.

Second, this game does mean more to the home team as they can become Bowl eligible with a win, while the Bearcats can't win the Big East now and have already won enough games to be invited to a post-season game.

Third, Connecticut do match up well with Cincinnati on the field and it looks like this is going to be a close game throughout which makes the points very handy.

Fourth, the Huskies are 13-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog in the last few seasons.


Georgia Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is the SEC Championship Game and the winner is likely to be playing for the National Championship in January. I think Alabama will win the game, but I like the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the spread with the points for the following reasons:

First, I like Aaron Murray more than AJ McCarron and I think he can make enough plays to help the Bulldogs keep this close in what is a closely matched game.

Second, the Bulldogs should be the fresher team with Alabama having to negotiate a tougher schedule through the regular season.

Third, Alabama are just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games while Georgia are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games and seem to have the momentum behind them.


Pittsburgh Panthers @ South Florida Bulls Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Panthers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Bulls have to be disappointed and a little flat in what has been a disappointing season and they are missing their big time starter BJ Daniels at Quarter Back.

Second, the Panthers have won 4 in a row in the series by 17 points per game and it is hard to know how South Florida keep up in this one without their star player.

Third, Pittsburgh are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games, while South Florida are 1-4-1 in their last 6.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Florida State Seminoles Pick: This is the ACC Championship Game and I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Florida State's Defense has been strong on the ground and will be upset with the 244 yards they gave up to the Florida Gators last weekend and I think they will have some success against the triple option run by Georgia Tech and that could make all the difference.

Second, the Seminoles are the much better team as they are in this game on merit, while the Georgia Tech team got in because Miami and North Carolina are ineligible this season.

Third, Florida State are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games on a neutral field while Georgia Tech are 2-7 against the spread in that situation.


Nebraska Cornhuskers v Wisconsin Badgers Pick: This is the Big Ten Championship Game and I think it is worth backing Wisconsin with the points to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Wisconsin pushed Nebraska all the way on the road in the regular season and I think they are playing better than the 3 losses from 4 would suggest. The Badgers have lost all of those games in overtime which shows how close they have been.

Second, both teams are really well matched and both Defensive units will feel they are better than the Offenses they have faced and that could lead to a low-scoring game where even 3 points looks very big.


MY PICKS: Oklahoma State Cowboys - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies + 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs + 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks (December 1-3)

The weekend football picks are below... I will update the season profit/loss in the Midweek Football Picks before the Champions League games during the week.


West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea fans are right to be upset with the direction the club took by employing Rafa Benitez, particularly considering the fractured relationship he had with those fans while manager of Liverpool.

The back to back goalless draws has hardly inspired and this is a far tougher game than the layers clearly think it is. West Ham United have shown enough at Old Trafford during the week that suggests they can at least get a point from this game and holding Manchester City here also backs up that thinking.

I just can't see how Chelsea are so short in the market on current form which has seen them win 1 in 10 and backing West Ham to avoid defeat looks the best way to get involved.


Liverpool v Southampton Pick: Liverpool have won just 4 of 16 home games in the Premier League during this calender year and that makes them far too short in the markets to win this game.

Southampton should be full of confidence after picking up 8 points from a possible 12, but I don't trust them fully defensively to think they can hold Liverpool here.

However, I think Southampton do have something about them and they do look a side that could push Liverpool as long as they don't make the defensive errors that have blighted them this season. Liverpool are too short as I mentioned and I will back the Saints with a 1.5 goal head start.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: Everton are playing very well at the moment, although they are not turning draws into wins despite their performances. They will feel confident they can shock Manchester City here as they have won 8 of the last 10 games between the teams, but I just think City may have turned a corner with their own recent results.

I think this will be close, but I have a feeling City continue with the momentum ahead of the Manchester derby next weekend, but this could be a close game and backing the home side to win by a single goal looks the way to go.


Queens Park Rangers v Aston Villa Pick: A relegation six pointer might be a bit over-dramatic before Christmas, but don't tell me that Queens Park Rangers are not going to be in big trouble if they lose this game, the first Harry Redknapp will be in charge of at Loftus Road.

Both teams should attack from the off with the three points being so important and I think both defences have shown enough vulnerabilities to think that goals is in the offing in the game.

Both sides have conceded 14 goals in their home and away games respectively and we could see those tallies added to on Saturday afternoon.


Reading v Manchester United Pick: I think Manchester United are going to have too many attacking options for Reading when all is said and done in this match, but it is hard to find a really good angle in United games with the way they have been erratic all season.

However, one element that stands out to me is the lack of clean sheets achieved by United away from home, something that I believe will be exploited by Reading who have been scoring freely at home for the most part this season.

I imagine United will come through with a 1-3 scoreline so taking both teams to score with an away win looks the call.


West Brom v Stoke City Pick: West Brom may just have had their bubble burst when Swansea over ran them in a 3-1 win at the Liberty Stadium and this is a game where they have regularly struggled in the recent past.

Stoke City have been playing better themselves to ensure they are not involved in a relegation scrap and I think they could be the first team to win at the Hawthornes this season.

However, I just don't have enough faith in Stoke who are not a great team on their travels so will back them on the draw no bet market.


Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend and I think taking the over 3.5 goals could be the way to go.

Both sides will be playing attacking football and Fulham have been involved with a number of high-scoring games as they have been vulnerable defensively while also showing enough attacking creativity to cause problems for other teams.

Spurs themselves have been vulnerable all season at the back as Andre Villas-Boas tries to employ new methods at the club, but the likes of Aaron Lennon, Gareth Bale and Jermaine Defoe should also be able to create chances and score goals.

Half of the last 8 games at Craven Cottage has seen at least 4 goals shared by the teams and that is my call for a small interest in this one.


MY PICKS: West Ham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win by 1 Goal exactly @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stoke City Draw No Bet @ 2.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Fulham-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

NFL Week 13 Picks 2012

Another week has flown by and I think the new Thursday night game has not helped matters as work takes priority during the week.

However, this week I thought I'd have a quick look at the Divisions and how things are shaping up as we fast approach the Play Offs.

This was my pre-season preview of the AFC Conference

And this was my pre-season preview of the NFC Conference


In the AFC East, you will notice that New England have pretty much reached the expectations that I had for them, although they may not be quite good enough to pick up the Number 1 seed in the Conference as I thought they could.

The rest of the teams have surprised me, although Miami have reached my initial expectations for them rather than the lowered targets. Buffalo have been the biggest disappointment in this Division and the New York Jets blow up has hardly been a surprise to anyone.


The Baltimore Ravens are on course to win the AFC North, although I only expected them to finish behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and earn a Wild Card spot. Injuries are really hurting the Steelers and they look a really vulnerable side when it comes to making the Play Offs, especially if they can't stop turning the ball over and Ben Roethlisberger misses extended time.

Cincinnati could be the team that takes advantage, but they still have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the most of their winning record at this stage. The Browns are performing as expected and I doubt they surpass the 4 wins that I believed was the maximum they earn this season.


The AFC South hasn't surprised in some aspects as Houston lead the Division and Jacksonville are in the basement... The Texans have already reached double digits and look like they could earn the Number 1 seed in the Conference, while the Jaguars look set to fall short of the 5 wins they managed last season.

Tennessee have also not surpassed expectations as I believed they would likely end with a losing record and are 2 losses from that situation. However, I couldn't have been more wrong about the Indianapolis Colts as I didn't think they would be close to a winning record. The Colts have been so surprising that they could be in line to make the Play Offs as a Wild Card team, and I doubt even Jim Irsay would have been expecting that this season in what was a rebuilding year... Interestingly, if the Play Offs started today, the Colts would be visiting Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round.


Speaking of Denver, Manning has been excellent and has helped them far exceed what I thought the Broncos would achieve... I projected another 8-8 season for them this season, but they are already 8-3 and look in total control of the AFC West.

I had believed in San Diego again this season, but they need to win out if they are to finish with a winning record and even the Play Offs looks a stretch for them. Both Oakland and Kansas City have been poor this season, with the latter in the best position to finish with the Number 1 pick in the Draft next April.


The NFC East was always a tough Division to project, but the performance of Philadelphia has been far worse than what most would have expected. Andy Reid is likely to be on the way out as is Michael Vick and the Eagles are virtually set to have a losing record.

I had projected the Giants to finish 9-7 and that looks a record that could see them win the Division, while they are on course to surpass that projection at 7-4 already. I also tipped Dallas to be either 8-8 with the possibility of going a win or loss either side of that mark and they look set to finish around that number.

The biggest surprise so far is Washington as I didn't think they would reach 5 wins for the season, but they are already at that mark and have a chance of making the Play Offs, but that could all depend on whether they can beat the Giants at home on Monday Night Football this week.


The Green Bay Packers were my pick in the NFC North and I still think they will do that, although they won't be reaching the 13 wins I had projected for them this season. That is mainly down to a couple of bits of bad luck, especially the loss in Seattle and a disappointing defeat to the Colts despite being up big in that game.

In pre-season, I couldn't separate the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions and while the former is on course to reach the record I projected, the latter has been a huge disappointment and will be missing the Play Offs this season. Minnesota have surpassed the 3 wins from last season as expected, but I didn't have them finishing outside of the basement in the Division, although that does look the case at this moment.


As with many, the New Orleans Saints have severely under-achieved from my pre-season expectations, although it says a lot about the character in the team that they are still in a position to enter the Play Offs despite a 0-4 start. The NFC South is in control of the Atlanta Falcons, a team that I thought could win the Division with a bit of luck, but one I did not see winning double digit games this season, something that has already been surpassed.

Carolina are going to be a disappointment as I had believed they will reach the same record as last season, but that looks to be a step too far as they need to win 3 of their last 5 games to do so. I had tipped Tampa Bay to reach 6 or 7 wins, but they have responded to Greg Schiano and they are set to finish at least 0.500 for the season with 2 more wins avoiding a losing record.


The NFC West was probably the easiest Division to pick in the NFL this season and I don't think too many people will be surprised by the way it is shaping up. I had picked San Francisco to reach double-digit wins again this season and take the title, which they are well on course to do so, while I also projected Seattle to come behind them.

However, the Seahawks have managed the surprise wins that they needed to avoid a 7-9 record that I had picked for them, although I still think they come up short for the Play Offs.

St Louis have also doubled last seasons wins as expected, and Arizona are set for another losing record (although at 4-0, I thought the Cardinals could surpass expectations massively).

My Top Ten

1) Houston Texans (10-1): There really isn't a stand out team in the NFL this season that I think is 'unbeatable', but the Texans look the best balanced.

2) Baltimore Ravens (9-2): Injuries are still an issue, and the Ravens are not half as good on the road as they are at home, but I still think they are a legitimate SuperBowl contender.

3) New England Patriots (8-3): The arrival of Aqib Talib improves the Defense, and the Patriots have the experience of winning the big games.

4) Atlanta Falcons (10-1): I can't be the only person that doesn't have faith in this team when it comes to the Play Offs.

5) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1): This team would be my pick to represent the NFC right now.

6) New York Giants (7-4): Are they back? If they play like they did on Sunday night against Green Bay, I think the Giants will be the biggest threat to San Francisco.

7) Green Bay Packers (7-4): I believe Sunday night was an aberration and the Packers will get better as injuries clear up going forward. Still the team to beat in the NFC North.

8) Denver Broncos (8-3): Have struggled against the best teams they have played in Houston, Atlanta and New England and their next big test will be how they have handle the Baltimore Ravens.

9) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): Lost their last 2 games down to mental errors and Special Teams play. Will be falling out of this list if Ben Roethlisberger isn't back sooner rather than later.

10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5): Were very close to knocking off the Atlanta Falcons last time out and are a real threat to make the Play Offs if they can pick up confidence and momentum again.

My Bottom Five

32) Kansas City Chiefs (1-9): Any team that chooses to start Brady Quinn isn't very good... They'll get the Number 1 Draft Pick next April unless they do something foolish in their last 5 games.

31) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8): 7 consecutive losses and they know there are a lot of changes to be made this off-season.

30) Oakland Raiders (3-8): Have plain given up!

29) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9): Least these guys have shown more heart and determination than the two teams immediately below them.

28) Cleveland Browns (3-8): Had 8 turnovers last week and still almost lost the game while Colt McCoy may be back in the Quarter Back starting role this week.

NFL Week 13 Picks

I will update my review from last weeks picks either later or tomorrow, but the Thursday night game pick has to be put up first.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I like the road team to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, this spread does seem an over-reaction to the New Orleans loss last week when it was only a couple of pick sixes that cost the Saints the game.

Second, the Saints have won 7 of their last 8 games against Atlanta in the Divisional series and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at the Georgia Dome.

Third, it goes back to when I picked the Saints to beat the Falcons three weeks ago, I just prefer their Offense of the two teams and think they are more likely to score touchdowns. That makes being given more than a field goal head start look very appealing.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the Cowboys, despite being a crappy team to back when considered the home favourite, for the following reasons:

First, despite the injuries the Philadelphia Eagles are playing with, Dallas will not take this game lightly in the Division as they have lost their last 2 home games against the Eagles and can't afford another Divisional loss this season if they want to catch the New York Giants.

Second, I just think the Eagles are too banged up to get things done against this Defense, particularly if LeSean McCoy is out to join Michael Vick  and DeSean Jackson on the sidelines.

Third, the Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: I will be taking the road underdog to win this game on Monday Night Football and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, barring one terrible overthrow, Eli Manning looked fresh in the dismantling of the Green Bay Packers last week and I think he will torch a Washington Defense that has been obliterated by injuries.

Second, I feel the New York pass rush is going to cause some issues, while I believe they will eventually win the turnover battle as they did in the first game between the teams this season.

Third, it should be a high-scoring game tonight as I feel both Offenses will be able to move the ball with some success, but I just think Manning makes more plays with his receivers than RG3 can when it is all said and done.

Fourth, I know the Redskins swept the Giants last season and the game earlier was very close, but New York had previously won 5 in a row at FedEx Field and they are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 visits here.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)



Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units

Season 2012: 31-32-4, + 0.09 Units