ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2023- Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic (November 19th)

It has been a fun week in Turin as the Singles Tour comes to a close in 2023.

We still have the Davis Cup to be handed out, but for most, this will be the end of the season and preparation will begin for the 2024 season and the first Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

On Sunday, we have a rematch of a Group Stage match to determine the next World Tour Finals Champion and it should be played in a very good atmosphere as Novak Djokovic looks to win another big title.

Jannik Sinner will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for what can be achieved in 2024 and it has the makings of a very good end to the 2023 season.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: They met in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals and both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner have come through their Semi Final matches on Saturday to compete for the last Singles title of 2023.

Jannik Sinner won their Group match in three tough sets, and he managed to win all four matches played in Turin in front of his home fans. However, one of those wins, the one over Holger Rune, is the only reason that Novak Djokovic is still involved in the tournament and the World Number 1 looks to be peaking with his best performance this week being in the Semi Final win over rival Carlos Alcaraz.

Nothing will come easy for Novak Djokovic in this one and he will know that this is a tough match having lost Group contest. It was a match that lasted over three hours and Sinner finally was able to get the better of Novak Djokovic in their fourth meeting on the Tour.

That will have given him confidence, but Jannik Sinner also needed three sets to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Semi Final and he has played a lot of tennis this week. There were some signs of fatiguing in the Semi Final win, while Jannik Sinner won the big points in the Group win over Novak Djokovic and it will not take a lot for the World Number 1 to turn things around and defend his title won here last year.

Jannik Sinner has really been making good use of the conditions in Turin and his serve has been a big weapon for him, as it was in the win over Djokovic.

However, it should be noted that the Italian won 69% of the points played on serve compared with Novak Djokovic's 73% mark in that match.

Over the course of the tournament, Novak Djokovic has had a narrow edge with the returning performance and that may show up in this Final.

The margins are expected to be tight, as they have been in most matches played this week in fast conditions, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will be extra motivated after losing in the Group. He will have a much better feel for the kind of atmosphere he will face and Djokovic has proven to be someone that can gain a lot of motivation over perceived slights.

In all likelihood, Novak Djokovic would have learned plenty from the loss earlier this week and he is expected to find the solutions needed to turn things around.

The pricing is basically the same as it was when these two players met in the Group Stage, but this time it looks worth backing the World Number 1 to do enough to edge past Jannik Sinner and cover this handicap mark.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 8.52 Units (24 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Nick Ball vs Isaac Dogboe (November 18th)

There was much excitement on Wednesday with the announcement of a deep card in Saudi Arabia to take place a couple of days before Christmas, but the reality is that it is a card filled with favourites that are expected to win and move onto bigger and better things in 2024.

On Thursday it was different.

Every single Boxing fan has been clamouring for the big boys to finally have an Undisputed Bout to determine a single Champion and on Saturday 17th February, we will have our answer.

Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk has finally been signed off in what is expected to be the first of two fights and the fans are going to be the winners.

The press conferences are likely to be one-sided with Fury dominating the exchanges, but Oleksandr Usyk is not interested in the verbals, while English not being his primary language means the Ukrainian can simply allow Tyson Fury to get on with things.

Understandably Tyson Fury is going to be the favourite, but he is a much bigger price than those taking part on the 23rd December and it is a bout that everyone should be looking forward to.

It has been a tough year for the Boxing Picks after the winning 2022 and it will be something that needs to be improved in 2024.

There are still some big weekends to get through before the end of the calendar year and some top fights to come, so any improvement needs to begin now.

This weekend three cards with some real prospects take place and there are also a number of fighters who are ready to move onto the World level. The Magnificent Seven card run by Queensberry looks a lot of fun, while Diego Pacheco is back in action and this is a serious looking fighter who will be involved in a lot of big fights over the next couple of years.

Nick Ball vs Isaac Dogboe

He has only lost three times at the very elite level and Isaac Dogboe is in a rare situation where he will be the taller fighter, but keeping Nick Ball away is not going to be easy.

Ultimately it feels like a top headliner on the Magnificent Seven card in Manchester with the expectation that Ball and Dogboe are going to be involved in a firefight.

Isaac Dogboe has shown plenty of toughness in going the distance with Emanuel Navarrete before being Stopped in the Twelfth Round in the rematch. He won four in a row, albeit never convincingly with two Majority Decisions and a Split Decision, before Dogboe was put down in the Twelfth Round and ultimately beaten widely on the cards by Robeisy Ramirez.

Those losses are against quality opponents so this is a big step up for Nick Ball, who is a super prospect as far as his promoters are concerned.

The winner is going to be in line for a World Title shot in 2024 so there is plenty on the line, while Ball will be plenty confident that he can wear down Isaac Dogboe.

Two of the last three wins have been with a Twelfth Round Stoppage that underlines the fact that Nick Ball will carry his power late on and you have to factor in the wars that Isaac Dogboe has already had in his career.

Nick Ball is likely going to have to weather some big shots, but the feeling he can land plenty of his own and stopping a former World Champion and World Title Challenger will be a huge achievement. We have seen Isaac Dogboe show plenty of resiliency in the past and against big hitters, but Nick Ball can just push forward enough to break down this opponent and secure another Knock Out, while making a statement to the rest of the Division.

Solomon Dacres should be able to find a Stoppage against unbeaten Michael Webster in an English Heavyweight Title bout, while Nathaniel Collins can secure another relatively early defence of his British Featherweight Title.

After a stunning finish of Jason Cunningham, Liam Davies faces an unbeaten Italian in defence of his EBU European Super Bantamweight Title. Vincenzo La Femina will be confident, but over the distance, you have to believe Davies can break down and secure another Stoppage as he continues to build towards a World Title.

The chief support in Manchester is a British Middleweight Title clash between Denzel Bentley and Nathan Heaney.

There is much to admire about Heaney and he is going to be supported by a huge amount of people, but this is also a considerable step up.

Denzel Bentley may have lost his World Title fight against Janibek Alimkhanuly, but it was a really close fight that went the distance against the 'bogeyman' of the Middleweight Division. The latter has gone on to Unify a couple of World Titles, but Bentley feels he deserves to belong at that level and he will come out looking to make a point.

He hits very, very hard and the feeling is that Denzel Bentley can go through the gears early and have Nathan Heaney out of there before the bell rings for the Seventh Round.

Franck Petitjean vs Adam Azim

After the big news conferences coming out this week to announce two big cards in Saudi Arabia, it was noticeable that Boxxer were not involved.

Matchroom and Queensberry have not seen eye to eye very often, but both were represented and so there will feel like a gap has developed between those promotions and Boxxer who have a card featuring on Sky Sports this weekend.

A fighter like Adam Azim can bridge that gap as he looks to continue his development as a professional. The last couple of fights have been tougher than expected, but Azim is stepping up his level of competition and will be looking to win the European Title this weekend.

Franck Petitjean is an experienced veteran, and has only ever been Stopped once, but the feeling is that he has struggled to get down to the weight this time.

It will be an opportunity for Adam Azim to make a statement by getting back to winning by Stoppage and he can do that by turning things on in the second half of this one with plenty of body work expected.

Another Boxxer fighter who might have been thinking he could be called up for the Saudi Arabian card is Richard Riakporhe who returns this weekend looking to get his career moving.

Criticism has been levelled at Riakporhe for not taking up an opportunity to face Jai Opetaia for the right to be called the top Cruiserweight in the world, while he has not built on his crushing win over Glowacki back in January.

He is expected to stop Dylan Bregeon, but Richard Riakporhe may have to wait until he gets into the second half of this contest. The opponent has been the full Twelve Rounds with Chris Billam-Smith and a full Eight Rounds against Isaac Chamberlain, so the feeling is that Richard Riakporhe may have to be patient before showing off the power to break Bregeon down.

Tyler Denny will be looking to send the home fans happy by winning the European Middleweight Title, but veteran Champion Matteo Signani could still be a threat.

Ultimately Denny should be too fresh for a 44 year old, although the prices are plenty short.

Over in the United States, Matchroom have put together a card featuring two very highly touted prospects.

Marc Castro is fighting for a second time in 2023 and he can get the better of Gonzalo Fuenzalida in the first half of a scheduled Ten Rounder.

There is so much excitement around Diego Pacheco who is a very big Super Middleweight and making rapid rises up the World Ranking. He might be the best of the young talent coming through under the Matchroom banner, but they do want to see him tested.

Veteran Marcelo Coceres has been given the call up and he has pushed some prospects even in losing efforts. He put down Edgar Berlanga in the Ninth Round and looked to have gotten the better of Billy Joe Saunders before being Stopped in the Eleventh Round, but Diego Pacheco may be better than both of those fighters.

It still may take a little longer than we have become used to seeing from Diego Pacheco, but eventually his pressure should tell.

A small interest on Diego Pacheco getting this done at around halfway looks the play against a canny veteran.

MY PICKS: Nick Ball to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Solomon Dacres to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nathaniel Collins to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

Liam Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Denzel Bentley to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Adam Azim to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Riakporhe to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marc Castro to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Diego Pacheco to Win Between 5-6 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 53-96, - 28.77 Units (275 Units Staked, - 10.46% Yield) 

College Football Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 18th)

The penultimate week of the College Football regular season does not have the same jeopardy as some may think for the top teams, but Week 13 is when rivalry games can turn the PlayOff picture upside down.

That does not mean the teams leading the way in the Rankings can overlook opponents, but there are some massive favourites in Week 12, while some of those leading teams are in non-Conference action.

Out of the leading teams, the most vulnerable looks to be the Washington Huskies who are underdogs on the road at the Oregon State Beavers in a big Pac-12 game. Having the Huskies lose may actually hurt the Conference as they will no longer have the potential for an undefeated Champion, but winning in Oregon State is going to be incredibly tough and the lean is actually with the Beavers to come through.

Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: A court argument was expected to be made on Friday, but Jim Harbaugh and the Big Ten have made a deal which means the Michigan Wolverines (10-0) Head Coach will be suspended for the remainder of the regular season. The benefit for Harbaugh is that the 'sign stealing' allegations will not be pursued by the Big Ten, although the NCAA may still have a role to play, but the Head Coach will miss the chance to oversee Michigan's 1000th win.

He has already spent some time away from the sidelines through suspension this season, but the Michigan Wolverines players have not allowed outside noise to distract preparation for each game played. They remain unbeaten with an absolutely massive game coming up against rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes, one that could determine which of those teams is playing in the College Football PlayOff.

With that in mind, there is a slight concern that the Michigan Wolverines will 'overlook' the Maryland Terrapins (6-4) who are just 3-4 in Big Ten play this season.The victory over Nebraska in Week 11 is arguably the best one that Maryland have produced this season, but no one associated with the team will downplay the tough game in front of them as they look to play spoiler.

Being in the Big Ten East means facing three of the top 15 schools in College Football- this is the final one of those games for the Terrapins who have suffered a 20 point loss on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes and been blown away by 36 points at home against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Many believe the Wolverines may be the best team in the entirety of College Football and so this is a monster challenge for the Maryland Terrapins, who will not be expecting a distracted Michigan team to come to town.

In the 2023 season, Michigan have been an absolute dominant Defensive unit and it is going to be a huge test for the Terrapins to move the ball with any consistency. The Michigan Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and pick up First Downs from third and long situations, and ultimately the Secondary are playing at a really good level even without the kind of pass rush that the Wolverines would have hoped to generate.

They will be expected to get into the backfield a little easier in this one against a struggling Maryland Offensive Line which has not opened holes for the run or offered much protection for Tua's younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.

He has played well and has some solid numbers behind him for the season, but Tagovailoa is throwing into a Secondary giving up less than 135 passing yards per game this season. That is an incredible number when you think of the leads Michigan have built up and forced teams to throw to stay with them, and Interceptions are likely to be at play in this one.

Covering this kind of number will depend on the Wolverines Offense, although the feeling is that scoring 34 points would likely do the job considering how well they have played on the other side of the ball.

The Wolverines will have noted that their rivals, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a Terrapins Defense which is playing well.

Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will share carries and look to pick up from where they left off against Penn State after another impressive Michigan win, while JJ McCarthy has been a solid Quarter Back. This has been a position that has perhaps held the Wolverines back in recent years, but McCarthy has well over 2000 passing yards to go along with 18 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions and he can boost his Heisman Trophy bid.

Turnovers might be the best way for the Terrapins to make this competitive and they have a Secondary that will attack the ball, but the balance of the Michigan Offensive unit should keep this team rolling.

Style points are not going to make a real impact on Michigan- if they win out, they will be in the College Football PlayOff- but only the Nittany Lions have been able to escape a game against the Wolverines with a defeat by fewer than 24 points.

It feels like this one is more likely to end the way the Penn State Nittany Lions beat the Terrapins rather than the smaller margin Ohio State produced and the Wolverines can move into the Week 13 decider with the Buckeyes with plenty of confidence.

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They are no longer the Number 1 Ranked team in College Football, but the feeling is that Head Coach Ryan Day will care as little as he has over the last two weeks. Ultimately Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) might be surprised that they have been knocked off top spot despite a crushing win over the Michigan State Spartans, but will also know the sole ambition is to finish in the top four and earn a PlayOff spot.

That is likely to be decided in Week 13 when the Buckeyes make the trip to the Michigan Wolverines with both of these teams unbeaten in the Big Ten East. The winner of that game will enter the Big Ten Championship Game as a significant favourite, while the losing team may still have some hope of earning a top four spot.

No one associated with either team is going to be considering 'what might be' if they lose and the sole focus is to come out hard in Week 13.

Overlooking this game and losing in Week 12 would be a big mistake, but the Buckeyes are expected to take care of business when they face the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-5) who are 3-4 in Conference play.

Back to back losses to the Illinois Fighting Illini and Purdue Boilermakers have ended Minnesota's interest in reaching the Big Ten Championship Game, while they still need one more win to become eligible for Bowl Season. They were favoured to win both of those games and the Golden Gophers are likely going to need an upset in the final two weeks of the regular season if they are going to earn a sixth win.

The blowout loss to the Boilermakers will have hurt, but the Minnesota Golden Gophers have to be motivated in their role as spoiler.

PJ Fleck is a very strong Head Coach, but he has admitted it is difficult with the injuries the Golden Gophers have picked up. Each week it seemingly gets a little more difficult for the team and it looks like the Ohio State Offensive unit are going to be able to do much of what they like on this side of the ball.

Ohio State have started slowly at times, but this is a game in which they should be able to run the ball against a banged up Minnesota Defensive unit, while Marvin Harrison Jr continues to impress with his Receiving numbers. The Buckeyes will have balance Offensively, which makes it very difficult to stop them, and they will be able to pile up the numbers for as long as they want.

Of course a blowout could mean pulling key starters and getting them ready for the massive Week 13 game, but you do have to wonder how Minnesota are going to find much of their own Offensive output.

The Golden Gophers may want to shorten the game by running the ball, but they may not be able to throw effectively and especially not if they fall behind by a number of scores. Ohio State's Secondary have been operating at a high level and this is a Buckeyes team that have given up just 48 points across their last five games.

Covering this mark will depend on a strong Buckeyes Offensive day, but getting up to 35 points might be enough in this game with Minnesota struggling.

Winning with style won't matter much in the grand scheme of things, but Ohio State are rounding out their home schedule and will want to send off some important players with a strong performance. That should be motivation enough for the Buckeyes who can win big and then concentrate on the game up in Ann Arbor.

Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Both the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks (9-1) are just outside the top four of the College Football Rankings with a couple of games left to play. There is still a real hope that the Pac-12 Champion will be able to earn a PlayOff spot, but the Ducks have less scope for error than the Huskies having already been beaten by Washington.

There is a big game coming up for Washington when they travel to the Oregon State Beavers in Week 12 and the Oregon Ducks will be playing their rivals next week at home.

However, in Week 12, the Ducks are big road favourites when travelling to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-7) who are unlikely to become Bowl eligible even if they can somehow reach five wins. The team are 2-5 in the Pac-12 and Kenny Dillingham has had a tough first season as Head Coach, although he does have some insider information about the Oregon Ducks having previously been the Offensive Co-Ordinator.

Facing players and staff he knows well should not be an issue for Dillingham who is looking for his team to continue to grow having won two of their last three games. Sandwiched in between the wins over the Washington State Cougars and UCLA Bruins is an embarrassing blowout loss to the Utah Utes, but the Sun Devils need to be respected.

They have played the Washington Huskies very close this season and this is a big spread for any road team to cover.

Oregon should have a lot more Offensive success than Washington managed against the Sun Devils and Kenny Dillingham will know all about how good Bo Nix is at Quarter Back for the Ducks. The only reason Bo Nix is playing in Oregon is because of Dillingham who has a solid relationship with the Quarter Back, even if he will want to shut him down in Week 12.

Bo Nix has produced big numbers, but he can lean on the running game in this one considering the problems Arizona State's Defensive Line have had in stopping the run in recent games. If the Ducks are operating in third and short, or if they are exploiting play-action, this should be a game in which they find the balance Offensively and are able to put up some strong numbers against a Sun Devils team that may be looking ahead to upsetting rivals Arizona in Week 13.

A real problem for the Sun Devils is going to be scoring enough points to remain competitive in this game with injuries on this side of the ball making it difficult to believe they can keep up in a potential shoot out.

They are down potentially three Quarter Backs after Trenton Bourguet needed a walking boot last week with both Jaden Rashada and Drew Pyne also expected to miss out.

An inability to run the ball consistently could really increase the pressure on Arizona State, even with their Head Coach's knowledge of the Ducks. It is really difficult to imagine the Sun Devils having any consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball and the pressure on the Defense to contain Oregon may ultimately be too much to deal with on the day.

Covering this kind of spread is never easy, but Oregon did win by 29 points in their only road game played since losing at the Washington Huskies. The Ducks know that they need to keep impressing the PlayOff Committee having suffered one loss already this season, one they may be able to erase by winning the Pac-12 Championship, and Oregon can move clear for a wide win.

MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 23.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 1 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)

Missouri Tigers - 10.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 18th)

It was always going to be a big ask of Daniil Medvedev to want to fight back when falling behind to Carlos Alcaraz and it made little sense with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.

Add to that the fact that a straight sets defeat would mean avoiding Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final and Daniil Medvedev will likely be pleased with his Group performance.

The top four players have all made it through to the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and you'd find long odds on someone other than one of these four winning the Australian Open, which begins in a couple of months time.

With that in mind, this feels like an important end to the World Tour Finals as all four will be looking to lay down a marker to their rivals and show that they are ready to win the next Grand Slam getting underway at Melbourne Park.

Both Semi Finals look like they could be filled with drama, as my Tennis Picks for Saturday suggest.

Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev over 23.5 games: The Semi Final line up was confirmed after Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev in the Friday Day Session, and it might not have been the worst news for the latter.

Losing that match means finishing second and that also means Daniil Medvedev faces Jannik Sinner rather than Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.

In saying that, this might be as tough as a match with Djokovic would have been with Daniil Medvedev facing a quality opponent as well as the Turin crowd. He has also lost the last two matches against Jannik Sinner with both of those played on the hard courts since the US Open, although both have been incredibly competitive affairs, much as what the expectation is for this Semi Final.

Those wins have ended Daniil Medvedev's run of six straight wins over Jannik Sinner, which includes two wins earlier this year. One of those was on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam, while Medvedev beat Jannik Sinner at the World Tour Finals in 2021, although again in three sets.

Both of these players have enjoyed the fast, indoor hard court conditions in Turin and Jannik Sinner has held 95% of his service games, while Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his own. At the same time, both are breaking in 16% of return games and there is every chance that serve will dominate in this Semi Final.

Even a straight sets win for either player may see this total games line surpassed if Sinner and Medvedev continue to serve at the kind of level we have seen this week. Matches between the players have been highly competitive and the four played in 2023 have ended with a total of 30, 21, 26 and 32 games.

None of the Daniil Medvedev matches in this tournament have needed a decider, but two of the three matches won by Jannik Sinner have had a third set. The feeling is that both are playing well enough to win a set in this Semi Final and this should be the latest of an exciting, competitive match between the two players most likely to break the Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic dominance of Grand Slam titles in 2024.

Jannik Sinner may deserve the narrow edge as favourite, but Daniil Medvedev loves these kind of conditions and looking for the total to be surpassed is a better angle than trying to determine a winner.

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 23.5 games: The top four ATP players in the World Rankings have made it through to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals, although the World Number 1 and 2 will face off for a place in Sunday's Final.

Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have had to overcome Group losses to make it through to the final four so may feel they are destined to win this title.

Novak Djokovic in particular has to be grateful that Jannik Sinner put in such an effort to beat Holger Rune in the final Group match. It was a match that meant little in terms of Qualification for the Italian, but a professional performance has given Djokovic life in the World Tour Finals.

The defending Champion has not had things all his own way since the US Open- he needed three sets to beat alternate Hubert Hurkacz and that means Novak Djokovic it has been the case in six of his last seven matches played. In general he has won those, although Djokovic was beaten in three sets by Jannik Sinner in the Group Stage.

The serve continues to be an underrated part of Novak Djokovic's tennis, but the conditions in Turin have really tested his return. He may be considered the best return player of all time, but Djokovic has only broken in 14% of return games played at the World Tour Finals and he is not expected to get a lot of change out of Carlos Alcaraz.

After being used to a rivalry with a player from Spain, Novak Djokovic will be looking to make a mark on Carlos Alcaraz and earn the mental edge to take into 2024. Early in the season, Alcaraz will not have any World Ranking points to defend and will want to head to Australia with a big win over his top rival on the Tour as he looks to close the gap at the top of the World Rankings.

Winning this tournament would also do that and Carlos Alcaraz has looked comfortable in the conditions after opening up the Group with a defeat.

Like Djokovic, the Spaniard is performing very well behind serve, but has 'only' broken in 16% of return games played.

And much like the other Semi Final, this looks like a match that could need a decider between two players who have been separated by very little in all of their matches played against one another this year.

Carlos Alcaraz wilted at the French Open as the stresses cramped up the body, but won in five sets in the Wimbledon Final before Novak Djokovic needed all three sets to win the Cincinnati Final. Prior to the cramps at Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were involved in another tight scrap and the feeling is that this Semi Final is going to be extremely competitive too.

Their match in Cincinnati saw Carlos Alcaraz edge the returning numbers, but it was a tight, tight match and that is why so many want to see Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic competing against one another.

Both have to feel that the winner can go on and pick up the title on Sunday, which should only increase the tension in this Semi Final, and it is another match that may surpass a pretty high total games line for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Over 23.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 8-2, + 8.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 43.10% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 17th)

There was some uncertainty as to how the second Group match to be played on Thursday was going to develop after Novak Djokovic only edged to a win earlier in the day.

Jannik Sinner showed he is plenty professional by coming through another tough three setter to eliminate Holger Rune and he does have a day of rest between the Semi Final to recover.

While he is resting, Jannik Sinner will find out who that Semi Final opponent is on Friday with one more place still to confirmed and that could be decided as soon as the first match is played. A Carlos Alcaraz win would be enough, but Alexander Zverev is still hoping for a Daniil Medvedev favour, which would mean having an opportunity to earn his own spot in the Semi Final in the Evening Session.

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Two wins and both in straight sets has moved Daniil Medvedev through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday and so you have to wonder how much motivation he brings onto the court. The chance to beat Carlos Alcaraz and potentially knock him out of the tournament will offer some motivation, but Daniil Medvedev will not want to have to exert too much energy to do that knowing he has a Semi Final spot wrapped up.

It is not easy for a tennis player to come out and deliberately play poorly, but you would question how much Daniil Medvedev is going to want to run in this tough Group match. Even a straight sets defeat is not going to impact his place in the next Round, although there is the question mark about whether he wins the Group that is yet to be settled.

Ultimately he will know his potential Semi Final opponent with the other Group being completed on Thursday evening, but Daniil Medvedev has always indicated that he is a player that only concentrates on what is best for him.

The win over Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open should actually provide plenty of ammunition for the World Number 2 as he looks to reach the Semi Final for the first time at this event.

His comfortable win over Andrey Rublev means Carlos Alcaraz has some control about his own future at the tournament.

Winning in straight sets means Carlos Alcaraz wins the Group and Alexander Zverev is unable to Qualify, although any win for the Spaniard is going to be good enough to progress without having to worry about what happens later in the day.

The performance in the win over Andrey Rublev is encouraging and Carlos Alcaraz will feel that he deserved more when losing to Daniil Medvedev in New York City.

Prior to that, Alcaraz dominated two matches against Medvedev, including on the hard courts of Indian Wells, and the Spaniard may be willing to work that much harder than his opponent in this final Group match. Ultimately that can make the difference on the day and Carlos Alcaraz can certainly keep Daniil Medvedev on the back foot with his serving as long as he can reach the levels shown against Medvedev's compatriot.

Daniil Medvedev is a quality hard court player and loves the indoor conditions too.

However, the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz who has should showcase a lot more desire in this match compared with Daniil Medvedev. This should be a tight match, but those margins to determine the winner can be edged by Alcaraz, who has more to play for, and he can earn a priceless victory to move into the Semi Finals.

Andrey Rublev v Alexander Zverev: Straight sets losses can be very hard to overcome in the World Tour Finals Group Stage, but most would anticipate that two wins would be enough to take them through to the Semi Final.

This may not be the case in either Group this year so Alexander Zverev is likely going to have someone keeping an eye on the Day Session match in this Group. Any win for Carlos Alcaraz would mean the straight sets loss to Daniil Medvedev would have eliminated Zverev before taking to the court for his final match.

You could see in the body language of his defeat to Medvedev that Alexander Zverev knew the importance of losing in straight sets hours after Carlos Alcaraz had beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

That defeat has eliminated Andrey Rublev from reaching the Semi Final for a second season in a row as he prepares to play his final match of the season before turning attention to building and improving ahead of the January start for the 2024 Tour.

Andrey Rublev has shown frustration in his two losses and he has been well beaten by both Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz.

A run to the Final and reaching two other Semi Finals between the US Open and the World Tour Finals should have given Andrey Rublev plenty of belief, but he continues to struggle to impose himself on the other top players on the Tour.

However, Rublev has won all three matches played against Alexander Zverev this season having previously lost all five matches played on the Tour against the German. The last of those wins came last month in Vienna on an indoor hard court and there may be a good reason to back the underdog to upset Alexander Zverev in this last Group match.

In the two hard court matches played between Rublev and Zverev in 2023, the Russian has held 96% of his service games compared with the latter's 75% mark. Andrey Rublev did save all 6 Break Points played in that clash in Vienna, but those were only earned in two service games and Rublev actually created 10 Break Points of his own on that day.

He doesn't have anything to gain from this final match, but Andrey Rublev has performed like a player willing to give his all each time he comes onto the court. With the potential Alexander Zverev elimination already confirmed by the time the two come out on the court, Andrey Rublev can maintain his current positive run against the German and win this match as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-1, + 8.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 56% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Shakur Stevenson vs Edwin De Los Santos (November 16th)

The rumours had been building in a very short space of time and the announcement of the big Saudi card on December 23rd was made official with a press conference in London.

Having both Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua signed up had some fans dreaming, but it quickly became clear that both would share the main event billing, but against other opponents.

Eventually the hope has to be that Wilder vs Joshua is the plan- both are Ranked highly by the WBC and could easily be called as a number one contender bout, while there is also the possibility that both could end up fighting for a vacant World Title, notably in the IBF organisation.

Filip Hrgovic, who is also heading to Saudi a couple of days before Christmas, will have plenty to say about that, as will Otto Wallin and Joseph Parker,

There has been plenty of excitement about the card, which has brought together rival promoters and rival fighters, but in the cold of light of day the feeling has to be a little different.

Of course it can only be good news that rivalries have been overcome and there is a potential that Saudi Arabian money is going to be able to put together some of the big fights fans have been asking for.

It's just not on this card.

Quality names and fighters are going to be showcasing their talents, but the oddsmakers rarely get things wrong and there are huge favourites set for every bout taking place.

Hopefully it is a card that is just setting up a monster event in 2024, and you can never discount the chance of seeing an upset or two when it comes to the Heavyweights. I will be tuning in on December 23rd, but for a lot of casual fans, it may not be the kind of main events that really draws them in.

Las Vegas is hosting the Formula 1 Grand Prix this weekend and that means a Top Rank card has to be moved to Thursday to avoid any clash with a big event.

It is an important card that is potentially setting up a future big fight, while also giving Shakur Stevenson a chance to earn his WBC World Lightweight Title.

Shakur Stevenson vs Edwin De Los Santos

There is a lot of excitement around Shakur Stevenson, but his reputation has perhaps made it more difficult for his promoters to tempt some of the big names in the 135 pound Division into the ring with the unbeaten American.

This is just the second fight in the weight class and Stevenson has a chance to pick up a vacant World Title that has been dropped by Undisputed Champion Devin Haney as he moves up to win a World Title in the Light-Welterweight Division.

For a long time Stevenson has been calling out Haney and he was even in the ring following Devin's controversial win over Vasyl Lomachenko, but that fight continues to marinate.

At this stage there is no guarantee that Devin Haney will head back to the Lightweight Division and unlikely if he is to win a World Title in the 140 pound Division.

With that in mind, Shakur Stevenson has to just continue his career and that means winning World Titles, unifying and then ultimately becoming Undisputed and force Devin Haney into the ring with him.

There are plenty of big names in the Lightweight Division that can be targeted- the winner of the rumoured Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr should be easy to make under his current promoter, while the likes of Keyshawn Davis, William Zepeda and Frank Martin are improving all the time and perhaps looking for those big fights at the back end of 2024 too.

Of course the main target right now has to be Gervonta Davis, but Shakur Stevenson cannot afford a slip up.

Edwin De Los Santos is a southpaw and has shown plenty of power, while his one loss was a slightly controversial one to then unbeaten William Foster. He is quite a bit down the current WBC Rankings to have been given the shot to fight for a vacant belt, but that only underlines the problems Stevenson has had in getting some of the bigger names into the ring.

You have to wonder if there is enough from De Los Santos to trouble someone as slick as Shakur Stevenson, but it is a long shot.

The expectation is that Stevenson will just use his defensive skills to frustrate and counter Edwin De Los Santos and really begin to take over once the first three or four Rounds are in the books.

He has stated as much himself and this does feel like an opportunity for Shakur Stevenson to impress with a strong, dominant performance to back up his first win in the Division earlier this year.

Shakur Stevenson was able to put his punches together to force a Stoppage, albeit perhaps in a fight that could have been allowed to go on, and the feeling is that he is going to want to put on a show as this one goes on. You can never discount a power puncher that Edwin De Los Santos looks to be, but he has not been in the ring with someone as good as Shakur Stevenson and could end up walking into some big shots as frustration builds.

The chief support has Emanuel Navarrete defending his WBO Lightweight World Title as he continues to 'chase' Shakur Stevenson up the Divisions.

This is clearly a fighter that Top Rank are lining up for Stevenson, even if there are options to unify within the 130 pound Division, but Navarrete has to focus on avoiding any slip up.

A third fight this year shows that Emanuel Navarrete is looking to continue his development with all of those being in this Division after a late win over Liam Wilson and then a strong win over Oscar Valdez.

Oscar Valdez has also suffered a loss to Shakur Stevenson and more comparisons will be made between the American and Emanuel Navarrete after this one.

Robson Conceicao was beaten by Stevenson in September 2022 in what turned out to be the latter's last fight in the 130 pound Division and he has fought just Two Rounds since that loss. At 35 years old, this is the Brazilian's last chance to win a World Title in all reality and the real question in this fight is whether Conceicao can get to the cards as he did in defeats to Oscar Valdez and Shakur Stevenson.

Emanuel Navarrete is crude and unorthodox, while he will not stop pushing forward and looking to crack the Robson Conceicao puzzle.

Early on you would expect the Challenger to put some Rounds in the bank, but the feeling is that Navarrete will build the momentum and can eventually crack through late in the contest.

Another Decision defeat for Robson Conceicao would surprise no one with his defensive skills, but he might be a bit rusty and the pace that Emanuel Navarrete pushes may be too much for a 35 year old with little ring time over the last fifteen months.

Being a prospect in the Welterweight Division will always draw some attention and this is a good platform on which Brian Norman Jr can impress.

He is fighting another undefeated fighter in Quinton Randall and both are stepping up their level of competition in this Ten Rounder.

However, Norman Jr has a real edge when it comes to the power and the expectation is that he can break down Randall and eventually find a Stoppage to continue his move up the World Rankings in a loaded Division, but one that could soon have Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford moving into Light-Middleweight to leave an opening at the top.

Brian Norman Jr will have to be patient before the really big fights come his way, but the next twelve months will be important to continue to step up his opponent level to get closer to the top names.

MY PICKS: Shakur Stevenson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.33 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Emanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brian Norman Jr to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 53-93, - 22.77 Units (269 Units Staked, - 8.46% Yield) 

NFL Week 11 Picks 2023 (November 16-20)

Week 10 proved to be the joint-worst performance of the season for the NFL Picks so the focus in Week 11 is to bounce back.

It is perhaps not a surprise that Week 10 was as indifferent as it was considering the upsets littered throughout the League, although there was a touch of misfortune with a couple of the selections.

The Green Bay Packers lost by four points (+ 3.5) and the New York Jets had their chances on Sunday Night Football as that fanbase is beginning to accept that this is going to be a lost season.

You do have to question the Jets management- as soon as Aaron Rodgers went down with a potentially season-ending injury after just a handful of snaps, they had to have known that Zach Wilson was not going to get it done at Quarter Back... I mean they traded for Rodgers knowing Wilson needed time away from the spotlight and the chance to work under a future Hall of Famer.

Fans will be looking at the Minnesota Vikings with plenty of envy- their decision to bring in Joshua Dobbs as soon as Kirk Cousins was placed on Injured Reserve has actually given the team every chance of making the PlayOffs.

He might not be an elite Quarter Back, but Dobbs could have made enough plays to back up a fantastic Jets Defensive unit and they would certainly feel they could challenge those top teams in the AFC.

Instead, Jets fans may already be thinking about the off-season and hoping for better in 2024 when Aaron Rodgers will be back.

A number of the top teams from my top five list from last week are returning from Bye Weeks so there is not a massive change in the standings.

1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1): we are going to learn plenty about the Eagles in Week 11 as they take part in a Super Bowl rematch.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2): the winner of that Monday Night Football game is going to be the number one team in these standings next week.

3) Detroit Lions (7-2): I had them down at number four last week, but a good win on the road at the Chargers and a healthier looking team pushes them up one place.

4) San Francisco 49ers (6-3): health is the key for the 49ers and they looked rejuvenated out of their Bye Week. A crushing road win over the Jaguars in Chase Young's debut pushes the 49ers right back amongst the elite in the NFL.

5) Baltimore Ravens (7-3): there are a number of teams that could have placed here after the Ravens lost to the Cleveland Browns in disappointing fashion in Week 10. A response is expected from Baltimore and we will know much more about this team, which is dealing with injuries, after a big Thursday Night Football game coming up.

The halfway mark is passed and the majority of teams have completed their Bye Weeks, which means the focus will be very much on building some momentum towards the PlayOffs.

The AFC remains very competitive right up and down the Divisions, while some separation is beginning to be seen in the NFC. These situations can change in a couple of weeks, but you could probably pick five of the seven NFC PlayOff teams right now with confidence and even the extra couple of places could be shored up sooner than later.

On the other side, teams like the Denver Broncos at 4-5 may feel they still have an opportunity to push into the Wild Card places and so games within that Conference are going to feel that much more important.

Selections in Week 11 begin with the Thursday Night Football AFC North game and this thread will have further Picks added to it over the next couple of days.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: We are at that time of the season when you begin to see some separation within Divisions and ultimately Conferences. In Week 10 it was stated that if the season was to end, the AFC North would have four teams featuring in the PlayOffs, while all four teams still have a winning record.

However, the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) will be looking to bounce back from incredibly disappointing defeats.

The Ravens blew a big home lead in the Fourth Quarter in a loss to Divisional rivals Cleveland Browns and have dropped to 2-2 in the AFC North, while only holding a narrow lead over the aforementioned Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Things did not feel much better for the Cincinnati Bengals who were upset by the Houston Texans and have actually dropped behind the Texans in the overall Conference standings.

It makes this Week 11 Thursday Night Football clash take on even more importance and games like this one could be pivotal in the final standings shake up.

Injuries have hurt both of these teams after Week 11 and there is little doubt that a short week will likely mean some key players will be missing out.

So while the Baltimore Ravens would love to get back to basics and run the ball effectively through Gus Edwards and Quarter Back Lamar Jackson, it might be a tougher task without some key Offensive Linemen. Ronnie Stanley will be a huge miss for the Ravens, even if Morgan Moses is expected back, and the Ravens may not be able to exploit the run Defense of the Bengals as much as they would if they were fully healthy.

Even then, you have to expect the Ravens to have success running the ball, while Lamar Jackson will be grateful that Sam Hubbard has been ruled out for the Bengals. Trey Hendrickson is going to play, but it should mean Jackson is able to bounce back from the mistakes made that ultimately cost Baltimore the win over the Cleveland Browns.

The Offensive passing game has yet to really operate at a level that many would have hoped, but Lamar Jackson is throwing into a Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It should help the Ravens if Jackson is in third and manageable when looking down the field and Baltimore have scored at least 30 points in four games in a row as they prepare to try and beat the Bengals for a second time this season.

Doing so will be tough and Joe Burrow is much healthier now than when the teams met in mid-September.

However, Burrow will be without Tee Higgins and the Ravens have a Defensive unit that have played very well this season, even with the capitulation against the Browns in mind. They were not helped by the Offense struggling as they did, and the potential absence of Marlon Humphrey is a big blow, but the Ravens have to believe they can make enough stops to edge this game.

Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is important for Baltimore and they will look to at least lock down Joe Mixon as a runner, although he can still be a threat as a pass catching Running Back.

They can bring some pressure against Joe Burrow, although this is an elite Quarter Back capable of making plays against the best Defensive units, even without a Receiver like Tee Higgins to help. Ja'Marr Chase has been a little banged up too and so it does feel like a challenging game for Burrow and the Bengals on a short week.

Trusting the Baltimore Ravens after what we saw last week is not easy, but you also have to remember they blew out the likes of the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks in home games before that. They are banged up and Divisional games in the AFC North have a habit of becoming tight and competitive right to triple zeroes.

It has been the Cincinnati Bengals who have gotten the better of recent meetings between these AFC North rivals, but the short week may favour the home team as both teams look to overcome being without some banged up bodies.

Both of these teams have been strong bouncing back from a loss, while they have strong trends as the home favourite/road underdog respectively.

My edge is with the Baltimore Ravens Defensive unit being able to make one or two bigger plays than their Cincinnati counterparts and that may make the difference in a pivotal Divisional game.

It would have been very nice if we could have gotten Baltimore below a key number, but the feeling is that they still cover and remain in control of this tough Division.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Double digit spreads are usually there to be opposed, but it has not been a bad approach for the NFL Picks this season to back big favourites to cover in the right spots.

This might be the right spot for the Miami Dolphins (6-3) who return from the Bye Week with their position at the top of the AFC East strengthened as the Buffalo Bills continue to struggle. They do have to avoid thinking ahead to a Black Friday clash with the New York Jets, which is a new addition to the NFL schedule, but losing in Germany to the Kansas City Chiefs and having two weeks to think about that should mean a big effort is put together by the Dolphins.

Mike McDaniels has made it clear that there is an importance to winning the Division and earning at least one home PlayOff game, while the remaining schedule is one that could see Miami push much higher than a Number 4 Seed they currently hold.

Miami will have to respect the fact that the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) have won two in a row and are still firmly in the Wild Card race in the AFC, while interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce is earning a lot more respect from those in the Raiders locker room than predecessor Josh McDaniels.

However, the Raiders are playing with a rookie Quarter Back these days and wins over the two New York teams is not something that is going to impress that many people.

The expectation is that Miami will return from the Bye Week looking a bit healthier and they do match up pretty well with the Raiders from their Defensive standpoint. Shutting down Josh Jacobs is very important and the Miami Defensive Line have played the run pretty well through the entirety of the season and that will force the pressure onto the shoulders of Aidan O'Connell.

Completely clamping down on Jacobs is not going to be easy, but the Dolphins can do enough up front and then believe their scoring power may force the Raiders to need O'Connell's arm to keep up. He has a big time Receiver in Davante Adams, but O'Connell has only needed to throw for a little over 350 passing yards to help the Raiders win their last couple of games, while having 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Interception to his name since replacing Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting Quarter Back.

The Jets Secondary gave him problems and Vic Fangio has a healthier Miami Secondary that will certainly believe they can largely control what the Raiders can bring to the field. The pass rush is effective enough to rattle this Vegas Offensive Line and it may be a tough day for the Raiders on this side of the ball playing in the early Eastern Time slot.

Las Vegas have played well Defensively in their last two games, but facing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson is not exactly ideal preparation to deal with the Miami passing attack.

Recent games have just slowed the hype train, but the Dolphins have a stronger looking Offensive Line this week out of their Bye. Injuries have not helped get the run game going, which has been massively important for Miami, although the expectation is that they get back to basics in Week 11 and can pound the Raiders on the ground.

It will be a case of picking your poison for the Raiders considering the top two Receivers Miami will have on the field and Tua Tagovailoa may have enough time to make sure Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle are getting loose in the Secondary. The Dolphins have been massively impressive at home this season, where they are 4-0 against the spread, and they have the scoring power to pull away and put a crushing win on the board before focusing on the New York Jets.

The Raiders have been competitive for much of this season, but their biggest loss was at the Buffalo Bills and Miami might come out and put a big number on them here.

Miami are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight coming out of a Bye Week and beat the Houston Texans by 15 points in Mike McDaniels first season in 2022. Under their current Head Coach, the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite too and all of their home wins have been by at least 14 points.

A backdoor cover is always possible when dealing with a spread of this size, but the Miami Dolphins should be angry with their performance in Germany two weeks ago and they can get on top of the Las Vegas Raiders and force a couple of mistakes from a rookie Quarter Back to ensure a big win.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Time may feel it is running out for both of these teams if they have a genuine ambition of making the PlayOffs.

As we enter Week 11, the Green Bay Packers (3-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) have to get going as the two teams sit in 11th and 12th place in their respective Conferences. Winning Divisions is almost impossible for the teams, but the Wild Card Race has to be targeted, although the pressure is on the Packers and Chargers to put together strong winning runs.

Both come into this game having lost tight games in Week 10, which would have felt like a body blow. Injuries are not aiding either team, while the Green Bay Packers have to try and focus and not concern themselves with their Thanksgiving Day game at the Detroit Lions, which is played in Week 12.

Trading away Aaron Rodgers and turning to Jordan Love has been a real tough transition for the Packers, but the new Quarter Back will be frustrated by the injuries all around him. He is also throwing to a young Receiving corps and the main leaders as far as skill players go have not been available on the Offensive side of the ball.

Out of the two teams, the Chargers have shown a bit more life of late and had won two in a row before losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 10, but the Green Bay Packers fans might be seeing shoots of life from the struggling Offensive unit. This will bode well going into 2024 and Jordan Love and company can at least challenge their visitors, who are well backed by the public.

Aaron Jones is back and that means the Packers can at least rely on the run with Jones and AJ Dillon keys to any success they can put together. This was the plan at the start of the season and they can certainly get something going on the ground against this Chargers Defensive Line, which in turn should mean Jordan Love is able to find a bit more time to operate at Quarter Back.

Slowing down the Chargers pass rush will be an important part of being able to run the ball successfully, while third and manageable is always important for inexperienced Quarter Backs. Jordan Love will know there are some holes in the Chargers Secondary that can be exploited if he is given time and Green Bay look like a team that should be able to move the ball with some consistency throughout this contest.

A couple of weeks ago you might have suggested the same for the Los Angeles Chargers, but injuries have really hurt them on the Offensive side of the ball. Keenan Allen is going to play through the pain, but Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett are all out and Green Bay are going to be bolstered in the Secondary with Jaire Alexander finally expected to suit up.

Justin Herbert is a top Quarter Back and will still find some places to throw the ball, but it is tough being down a number of Receivers that can complement Allen. It also has been difficult for Herbert knowing the Chargers Offensive Line have not been able to open too many running lanes throughout the course of the season and so Austin Ekeler's biggest plays may be as a pass catching Back.

Pittsburgh were able to wear down Green Bay up front last week with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combining for 183 yards on the ground, but it feels less likely that this Chargers team can do that. Kenny Pickett had less success throwing and having Alexander back in the Secondary could mean the home underdog has the edge in this contest.

The Packers failed to cover last week as the underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four in that spot this season.

It tempers some enthusiasm for this selection, although it should be noted that Green Bay are 1-1 against the spread as the home underdog. They are also facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that has not exactly flourished when set as the road favourite and who could overlook a non-Conference opponent when knowing the high-flying Baltimore Ravens are next on deck.

As long as Jordan Love can avoid the mistakes that have proven costly at times, the Green Bay Packers can keep this one close and perhaps even earn the outright upset to move onto the Detroit Thanksgiving Day game with some confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: After big wins in Week 10 to remain on the coat-tails of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, fans of both of these teams would have been walking with a spring in their step.

However, the Cleveland Browns (6-3) fanbase have long anticipated something happening that would knock them out of their stride as they are not allowed to have good things happening with their team.

And on Monday, it happened.

Deshaun Watson played arguably his best game as a member of the team when leading them back to a win over the Ravens on the road, but it was soon revealed that he had picked up a shoulder injury and will miss the rest of the season. After losing Nick Chubb earlier in the season and with injuries ravaging key areas of their Offensive unit, the Browns now go with a backup Quarter Back the rest of the way.

The only surprise is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be given the keys to the Offense rather than PJ Walker. The latter made three starts while Watson was out earlier this season, but his 1 Touchdown and 5 Interceptions perhaps meant the Browns lost faith in him, although Walker was better than Dorian Thompson-Robinson who threw for 121 yards and had 3 Interceptions in his sole start.

Regardless of who will start (or finish) at Quarter Back, the Cleveland Browns know the Defensive unit is going to be key for them. In PJ Walker's three starts, the Browns won twice and they will feel that was down to the performance of the Defense rather than anything Walker was able to put together.

This week Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be tasked with 'not losing' the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3), a team that is massively over-performing compared with their overall numbers.

The Quarter Back would usually want to lean on the run game, but the Steel Curtain has been looking stronger up front in recent games and the focus for Pittsburgh may be to control the Line of Scrimmage and see if a rookie can beat them through the air. There are injuries in the Secondary that may be exploited, but it may be asking too much for Thompson-Robinson to do that, especially with the pass rush that the Steelers are likely to generate against a rookie that will need to go through his progressions when scanning the field.

Mike Tomlin has proven to be a very effective Head Coach and his Steelers team will be able to create chances Defensively, although they will be challenged on the other side of the ball by a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit.

The Steelers look to have gone back to 'old school' Steeler Football as they have leaned on the Offensive Line and two strong Running Backs to make sure the Offensive unit is moving the chains. In recent games there have been signs that the Pittsburgh Offensive Line is picking up their levels and they did rush for almost 200 yards through Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren alone last week against the Green Bay Packers.

Both of the Running Backs are expected to be key as the Steelers go for the road upset that will keep them right behind the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North. It has been made clear that the current levels of performances to produce wins should not be sustainable with Pittsburgh given up more yards than they gain, but the Steelers control the tempo of games and they will look to wear down Cleveland on the ground and then open up some passing lanes for Kenny Pickett.

The Quarter Back has struggled for consistency this season, but the Steelers are trying not to ask too much from Pickett, who has averaged under 160 passing yards per game in their last three games. The fact of the matter is that the Steelers have won the last two of those with that conservative approach and Mike Tomlin will not want his Quarter Back taking too many chances with a Browns Secondary that have thrived on creating Interceptions.

Turnovers are likely to be key to the outcome of this game and so playing a clean one when throwing the ball is vitally important.

After what we have seen from the backup Quarter Backs in Cleveland, you have to give a lean to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the further addition being that the public are behind the home team.

Having the chance to oppose them here is not a bad thing, while Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have the best cover percentage as an underdog of any team in the NFL since taking over as Head Coach ahead of the 2007 season (55-32-5). Since Ben Roethlisberger retired, Pittsburgh are 7-3 against the spread as the road underdog and the feeling is that they will have a game plan that will frustrate either of the two Cleveland Quarter Backs that may end up taking snaps in this one.

Next week the Steelers face another backup Quarter Back against a AFC North rival so this is the chance for them to make hay and really begin to cement a PlayOff spot, even as a Wild Card team.

The Browns will play hard for their backup Quarter Back and they are 2-0 against the spread as the home favourite, but the Steelers may match up effectively with them in Week 11 and earn the road upset.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The team are going to get an incredibly high Draft Pick barring a strong turnaround in form from the Carolina Panthers, but players do not think about what a franchise is going to do in the future. Instead, the Chicago Bears (3-7) come out of a mini-Bye with a 2-2 record in the absence of Justin Fields.

In Week 11, Fields is back on the, er, field, for the Chicago Bears as they look to spoil some of the fun for NFC North leaders Detroit Lions (7-2). At one point it felt like the Lions were going to dominate their Divisional rivals, but the Minnesota Vikings are creating a challenge within the North and the Lions will have to face them twice in the final three weeks of the regular season.

No will be looking that far ahead, but Thanksgiving Day could be a distraction with the Lions set to host the Green Bay Packers on the short week. They will still be focused on winning a Divisional game of course, but Detroit know they will have a big chance to underline their improvement to a national audience when opening the trio of Thanksgiving Day games.

Unsurprisingly the Chicago Bears have lost a couple of games by wide margins, but this is not an uncompetitive team and they have given Justin Fields plenty of time to return close to full health. That is important for them as they look to give the Lions something to think about in a tough road environment.

His ability to scramble from the Quarter Back position is important for the Bears and there is also the boost that the returning Khalil Herbert can give the running game. In recent games, it has been possible to establish the run against the Lions Defensive Line and having both Fields and Herbert in the backfield gives the Chicago Bears a chance to do that here and control some of the tempo of the game.

Justin Fields may also have a decent game throwing the ball- the Chicago Offensive Line has been pretty good in pass protection in recent games and the Lions are not flooding the backfield like usual, while establishing the run means they will have to be aware of the ability of Fields to get out of the pocket and scramble for First Downs too.

The feeling is the Bears can move the chains and they may also believe they are playing well enough to make the Detroit Lions a little one-dimensional on the other side of the ball.

The Bears Defensive Line has been very strong against the run all season and they may feel they can limit the one-two punch that has been so effective for Detroit all season. David Montgomery will be playing with a bit of fire having been allowed to leave the Bears despite securing 801 yards on the ground for them last season, but the Chicago Defensive Line have been very good defending the run and will look to force the Lions to take to the air.

Jared Goff won't be too concerned about that as the Bears Secondary have not matched the performance of those on the Defensive Line. Little pass rush pressure, even with the addition of Montez Sweat should mean Goff has all of the time he needs to locate some very good Receivers and the Lions should be able to move the ball when it is in their hands.

Of course the Bears may feel they can clamp down in the red zone and force Field Goals rather than Touchdowns, while a team throwing out of third and long on a semi-consistent basis makes it tough to keep converting.

You still have to expect the Lions to win and they have a solid 6-2 record against the spread when set as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season.

They have also dominated the NFC North in that time with a perfect 7-0 record against the spread compared with a Chicago team that are 1-7 against the spread in Divisional games. It does not make me feel much better knowing the Bears are 0-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing off a win and the Detroit Lions are plenty dangerous Offensively.

However, it does feel the most likely spot where you may get a relatively flat performance from the Lions, while the Bears should have had plenty of time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. Having those extra days and with Justin Fields returning at Quarter Back, coupled with the fact the Lions are returning home from a West Coast game with Thanksgiving Day looming large, and you have to feel the Bears can make this many points count.

It may need a backdoor cover to finally get over the line, but it looks a good situation for the Chicago Bears to do that with over a Touchdown worth of points in the bank.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 7 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)