Tennis Picks 2023 (August 1st)

Monday was a busier day than usual for scheduled matches on the Tour, but nothing of interest came up for the Picks.

After a solid end to last week, I am looking for the momentum to continue on Tuesday where I have a single selection from Kitzbuhel.

Any Picks from Washington and Los Cabos will be added to this thread.

Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 games v Marc-Andrea Huesler: A really poor run of form on the clay courts will be difficult to shift for Marc-Andrea Huesler as he takes on an opponent who has put some strong results together on the surface.

Daniel Altmaier is at a career best World Ranking and he can move into the top 50 for the first time with a decent run here.

Two years ago he reached the Semi Final in Kitzbuhel, while the German reached the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week. Overall his numbers on the clay courts have been pretty good and he is facing an opponent who has lost his last seven matches on the red dirt, including First Round defeats in Gstaad and Umag in the last couple of weeks.

The challenge only increases for Huesler when noting he has lost both previous matches to Daniel Atmaier and both of those were on the clay courts- he was beaten in Geneva two years ago, but Altmaier also won their meeting in the First Round at the French Open without dropping a set.

On that day Daniel Altmaier had a significant edge on the serve and he should be able to get into the Marc-Andrea Huesler serve in this First Round match too. I would expect Altmaier to have the majority of Break Points in the match and he is playing well enough to believe he can get the better of the Swiss player who has been struggling on the clay as much as he has in 2023.

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Two players who have had injury issues to drop them well out of the top 100 of the World Rankings are hoping the US hard courts gives them an opportunity to get closer to the level they once showed.

This only makes this a bigger match for both Lloyd Harris and Kei Nishikori, who enjoyed strong tournaments in Atlanta last week.

Out of the two, Kei Nishikori is perhaps going to be offered a couple more Wild Cards into the biggest events compared with Lloyd Harris and so the harder path back towards the top of the ATP Tour will definitely need to be treaded by the South African. His results on the hard courts have been mixed, but the run in Atlanta will have helped his confidence, although he is facing a Kei Nishikori that has found a decent level on his return to the Tour.

Taylor Fritz ended his run last week and went on to win the title in Atlanta, but Kei Nishikori has won a title at Challenger level on his favourite surface and the former US Open Finalist will still feel more is to come.

Of course you can never really know how your body is going to react after such a long lay off from the Tour and playing weekly is tough, but Kei Nishikori does hold a win over Lloyd Harris on the hard courts of Washington and that will give him a boost.

He should have the edge on the return of serve too and Kei Nishikori can battle past this opponent.

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: You have to first note that Yoshihito Nishioka made the Final in Washington last year and so has to be afforded a lot of respect as potential being a 'horse for course' in an environment he would have enjoyed.

However, the opponent has been less positive for Nishioka who has lost all three pro matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and on all three surfaces on the Tour. The defeat on the hard courts was a premature one as Nishioka had to withdraw in the middle of the match, but the defeats on the clay and grass have been much more routine and this is a tough match up for him.

2023 has already proved to be a tough year on the hard courts for Yoshihito Nishioka who was beaten early in Atlanta last week and has been beaten in his last five matches played on the surface.

In saying that, Emil Ruusuvuori had lost a bit of confidence having lost five matches in a row before arriving in Washington, but he was a solid winner in the First Round, which should help. He has shown he is a solid hard court player and Ruusuvuori is expected to have an edge on the serve, as has been the case in the previous meetings between these players too.

When you have been struggling for confidence, nothing will come easy, but the win in the First Round is expected to provide a major boost for the player from Finland. There should be breaks of serve both ways, but I am expecting Emil Ruusuvuori to come out on top more often than not and get the better of Yoshihito Nishioka again.

MY PICKS: Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2023- Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford (July 29th)

Boxing is a sport that will always show off elite talent in the most brutal of ways... There really is no hiding place once you've found out the opponent in the other corner is levels above your own skillset.

Sometimes you will see really good fighters find that out when facing an elite, generational talent and that was the case on Tuesday when Stephen Fulton saw his 122 pound World Titles ripped away from him in Tokyo by The Monster.

Naoya Inoue has looked like a superstar, but this was a genuinely tough test for him moving up in weight to face the best Super Bantamweight in the World.

He made it look easy.

Saying that does not make Fulton a bad fighter behind that performance, but it underlines Naoya Inoue's place in the sport right now and not many would pick any other fighter above in the mythical pound for pound list.

For me it was arguably the finest performance from any fighter since the pandemic and Naoya Inoue is almost certainly going to have an opportunity to become Undisputed in his next fight. Doing that in two Divisions in a row will elevate a fighter, who is already a superstar, and Inoue may soon be thinking of taking on Robeisy Ramirez who won comfortably on the undercard.

Stephen Fulton can come again, most likely in the Featherweight Division, but the spoils go to the victor and Naoya Inoue will be the one making the headlines... At least until Sunday morning.

Naoya Inoue would have been elevated to the top spot in most pound for pound Rankings on Tuesday, but on Saturday the Welterweight Division is expected to have an Undisputed Champion in place (assuming no draw) when Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford meet.

After the horrible scoring we saw in the United States last week, Boxing has needed a week like this one with two top fights within the space of a few days, but you have to still hope we don't see a Maxi Hughes kind of Decision in the main event.

I really hope Maxi Hughes gets another opportunity having deserved to earn the nod over George Kambosos Jr last weekend.

It was a close fight, but it did feel like Hughes had done enough... And that makes the 117/111 card handed in to favour Kambosos Jr feel all the more nonsensical.

He might not want to admit it, but George Kambosos Jr did earn some home cooking with his name preserved for someone else to beat him and not a fighter of little note world-wide like a tough veteran in Hughes.

Like in the WWE, the rub to beat Kambosos Jr can only be given to a name that can be made on the back of beating the former Undisputed Champion and that is where Boxing has always let itself down. While he will be able to move on to some big fights against the likes of Shakur Stevenson, Maxi Hughes has to hope to be given another deserved opportunity and that just seems unfair considering how well Maxi did in that fight.

Tuesday brought a solid return for the Boxing Picks thanks to Robeisy Ramirez winning in the first half of the fight, which hopefully gives us something to build upon.

The big card on Saturday will be coming from Las Vegas, but there is a decent main event taking place in the United Kingdom before that.

Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford

This has been a fight that has been close before, but never materialised to the frustration of the Boxing fans around the world.

No other fight has mattered in the Welterweight Division over the last couple of years, but it looks like we are finally here with all of the Belts on the line.

Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford have been amongst the best pound for pound fighters in the world for a long time- Crawford has to be credited for becoming Undisputed at Light Welterweight before maintaining that run at 147, while Spence Jr has long felt like he has been the King of the Division since knocking off Kell Brook to begin his run.

Fans of both will argue long into the night about the respective resume strength of their favourite compared with the other, while fans of The Truth and Bud will point to their man as the who is currently sitting on the Welterweight throne.

For me I have been a part of Team Truth for a long time and I do genuinely think Errol Spence Jr can win this fight.

In saying that, I have a lot of respect for Bud Crawford and he has shown a killer instinct that makes him very dangerous. He can sometimes need a couple of Rounds to warm into a fight, but once Crawford gets going, he can be very difficult to stop and that will be the challenge for Errol Spence Jr who is the naturally bigger man.

There is plenty of power from the Errol Spence Jr corner too, although he has shown a strong style to break down opponents and not go searching for a Knock Out that has eventually come more often than not anyway. He will feel he can try and fight in a similar manner to his victory over Mikey Garcia when Spence Jr used his size and strong Boxing skills to keep Garcia from mounting any kind of offensive game plan.

It will be much tougher to do that against Terence Crawford, who is bigger than Garcia and who has been at 147 for some time.

No one will doubt the talent that Terence Crawford has and he will certainly feel he can hurt Errol Spence Jr who has been rock hard in his career, but has had one or two moments when he has clearly felt a shot from an opponent. Most notably that happened in the win over Yordenis Ugas, although Spence Jr has suggested he was worried about losing his teeth rather than actually being hurt when momentarily stunned in that contest.

Someone like Crawford has shown he is like a shark that smells blood in the water- if he thinks he has you hurt, he is willing to unload everything to force the contest to an end. Even against an elite opponent like Errol Spence Jr, Terence Crawford will be looking to press those moments and it just has the makings of a really fun fight.

We have not seen Crawford hurt since moving up to Welterweight, but Spence Jr is the biggest, toughest puncher he will have fought in the Division. So while we have not seen it in a while, I don't think it is impossible for Errol Spence Jr to put Terence Crawford in a tough spot where he is forced to hang on.

However, Terence Crawford is a really smart fighter and you have to believe that after a few Rounds he is going to have worked out the established approach that Errol Spence Jr has long used to dominate his opponents. A sharpshooting counter puncher like Crawford could easily lure Spence Jr into a monster shot, while most will feel that Bud has a bit more creativity to his style which will allow him to make more adjustments if he feels the fight is slipping away.

It does feel like Errol Spence Jr's tactic has to work- he will find it tougher to make those in-ring adjustments and that is where the difference is perhaps being felt in Vegas who have Terence Crawford as the favourite. They will feel he can win this fight in more ways than Errol Spence Jr and ultimately that makes it much easier to pick Crawford as the favourite.

Of course that is not to say that Errol Spence Jr cannot make a fast enough start to bank the early Rounds and eventually take this on a Decision, but fans of Bud Crawford are going to feel that their man will make the necessary adjustments to turn this fight before too many Rounds have been lost. His counter-punching style and offensive output when an opponent is hurt will also have Crawford fans believing that he can put Errol Spence Jr down for the first time and potentially do enough to have the referee step in late.

Inactivity is going to be a problem for The Truth a little more than Crawford, while you can never really know how those car crashes that Errol Spence Jr has been involved in will catch up with him. Retina issues have also come up, which prevented Spence Jr from taking on Manny Pacquiao, and there does seem to be a few more miles on the clock compared with Terence Crawford.

I have always been a fan of Errol Spence Jr, but Terence Crawford deserves the utmost respect and has proven himself as a good person outside of the ring with his charitable acts. I would not begrudge Crawford winning, although at this point I don't really want to see either of these absolute elite boxers lose.

Someone has to lose though and my heart is rooting for Errol Spence Jr, but my head is leaning towards Terence Crawford maybe doing just enough on the cards. He might even score a flash Knock Down that ends up being the difference, but Spence Jr is also more than capable of putting Crawford on the canvas and there is so little to choose between them.

This is genuinely the best fight we have had put together in a long time and I am going to stay firmly on the fence with any prediction- seriously, this is one to enjoy without any kind of pick.

Let's be honest, when you have a fight of this magnitude, the undercard does not have to be as loaded as other events.

That is the case for this one in Las Vegas, although there will be some interest to see the outcome of those bouts.

Sergio Garcia is heading back to the United States to try and pick up a win after losing to Sebastian Fundora and Tony Harrison in Decisions- the Spaniard has had the money come in on him with him down as the favourite against Yoenis Tellez, although little is really known about the Cuban who had a 23-6 amateur record.

It is an important fight for Garcia who will have opportunities in the Light Middleweight Division if Jermell Charlo decides to relinquish his Titles after becoming Undisputed and now moving up to face Canelo in September.

Yoenis Tellez is a late replacement, but was preparing for a fight next month, and this feels a considerable step up in class from the previous five professionals faced. He has fought on a big card before, but not with these kind of eyes on the event and Tellez may just find this is a steep learning curve.

This week we have already seen Naoya Inoue in action as he moved up to Super Bantamweight to win two World Titles in that Division, but he has left his Undisputed Titles fractured at Bantamweight.

One of his previous victims, Nonito Donaire, will be on the undercard looking to pick up the vacant WBC World Title when facing Alexandro Santiago in a fight that was pushed back a couple of weeks onto this card.

At 40 years old you have to wonder how much Donaire has left and even more so considering we last saw him being blitzed inside two Rounds by the aforementioned Inoue. That bout took place over twelve months ago and you have to believe that he is going to be vulnerable in this one against a decent fighter in his Mexican opponent.

A very close loss to then unbeaten Gary Antonio Russell shows what Alexandro Santiago is capable of, and the younger fighter has won three in a row since that defeat. The last two wins have been in the time that Donaire has not been out in the ring, so Santiago may have an edge thanks to activity, while a victory over Antonio Nieves is a decent one.

This is the biggest platform Alexandro Santiago will have had, and his toughest opponent on paper- if Donaire is anywhere near his best, you would expect him to win, but I can't help feel his best days are behind him and this is a big opportunity for Santiago to make up for what he will feel was a tough loss to Russell.

He will have to be wary of the power that Donaire has, but Alexandro Santiago can earn a mini-upset and win the World Title.

The chief support fight on the undercard will feature Isaac Cruz who continues to push for a rematch with Gervonta Davis.

He is facing an unbeaten opponent in Giovanni Cabrera who is taller by some margin and had a solid win over Gabriel Flores Jr twelve months ago, but inactivity is an issue for the American.

You can't help but feel that Isaac Cruz is being put in a position for that rematch with Tank and so his handlers are unlikely to have him in a risky fight. The two wins since his loss to Davis have both been inside the first half of contests and you have to believe he is going to come out swinging at the taller man.

Giovanni Cabrera has shown he has some skills so has to be respected, but Isaac Cruz is looking to make a big statement and I think he can achieve that relatively early.

Before all eyes turn to Las Vegas, there is a decent looking main event in the UK.

Moses Itauma needed the cards in his his third win as a professional in April, although that victory looks pretty handy considering Kostiantyn Dovbyshchenko was last seen stopping Matty Harris.

A hand issue seemed to be an issue for Itauma, but he can get back on the Stoppage trail with a victory against a tough opponent in Kevin Nicolas Espindola who had to retire with a hand issue in his defeat to Frazer Clarke.

Prior to that he had lost six times without being Stopped, but the feeling is that Moses Itauma can put enough punches together to maybe have the referee step in during this contest.

The main event will be a grudge fight between Jason Cunningham and Liam Davies.

There is clearly no love lost between them in what feels like a crossroads fight- Davies is looking to push on to the level that Cunningham has fought at, while the latter feels like he may be on the way down the mountain.

All credit has to be given to Jason Cunningham for making a career for himself that he has, but Liam Davies is younger, fresher and fighting in front of his fans. He is not exactly known for his punch power, but Davies has shown he has enough pop and the feeling is that he can wear down an older fighter with plenty of miles on the clock.

Jason Cunningham returned from a devastating loss to Zolani Tete to win a Ten Rounder in March, but that loss to Tete might still be on the back of the mind if Liam Davies is able to turn the screw in this contest.

The Decision win for Davies is the favourite play, but the suggestion is that the home crowd will keep Liam Davies motivated to finish this fight if the opportunity is there do that. There is no doubting the toughness of Jason Cunningham who has had a number of upsets in recent fights, but the younger, fresher Davies can turn it on late and force a Stoppage victory.

MY PICKS: Sergio Garcia to Win @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexandro Santiago to Win @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Isaac Cruz to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Moses Itauma to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Liam Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 34-61, - 19.32 Units (178 Units Staked, - 10.85% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 29th)

The tournaments being played this week are into the Semi Final stage on Saturday and I have something to build upon from Friday having seen the Tennis Picks end up with a 4-1 day.

It is the best single day since Wimbledon, and it was nice to be on the right side of a capitulation having had some tough luck losses of late.

With the tournaments winding down, there are only a handful of matches scheduled to be played and that is also because of the rain in Warsaw which means that event is playing catch up through Saturday.

Anna Bondar v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The tournament in Lausanne has seen some surprises this week and it has been an important one for the players who are trying to pick up some vital World Ranking points ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season. Many playing here will be much more comfortable on the clay courts compared with the hard courts and so there may not feel like a lot of opportunities to improve Rankings over the next month.

It has been a tough twelve months for Anna Bondar, but winning the tournament this weekend will mean pushing back into the top 100. This will give her plenty of motivation and her performances in her three wins here this week have been solid, especially behind serve.

A good win over Mirra Andreeva will have given Anna Bondar some confidence, but this is the toughest test she might be facing this week against Elisabetta Cocciaretto who is already assured of a new career high World Ranking inside the top 40. Winning the title might mean cracking the top 30 and giving her a chance of being Seeded for the US Open draw next month and there is no doubt how well Cocciaretto is playing after coming from 5-0 down to win thirteen of sixteen games in her Quarter Final win on Friday.

Both players have produced very strong returning numbers, but Anna Bondar has gotten a little more out of her serve and that could be the difference for the underdog in this Semi Final.

That was the case when Bondar beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto last year on the clay courts, although the improvement of the Italian over the last year and the loss of form of Bondar is likely to mean this one is more competitve.

Even with that in mind, Anna Bondar might just be able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve, especially the first serve, and that may make the difference for her in a week where she has found some of her best tennis. Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was Ranked Number 50 and she has shown enough quality on the clay courts to beat a specialist like Elisabetta Cocciaretto as the underdog.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: This is an ATP 500 event being played in Hamburg so there are some big names that have entered the draw.

It makes this Semi Final all the more surprising, although both Laslo Djere and Zhizhen Zhang deserve their place in the final four having produced some quality wins already this week.

Out of the two players, Laslo Djere can argue he has had the stronger victories compared with Zhizhen Zhang and that could be key in helping get through this tough Semi Final. It is going to be difficult, but it is a winnable match for Djere, although Zhizhen Zhang has to be given a lot of respect for producing his best tennis when playing higher Ranked players than himself.

However, his best win this week has been against the World Number 45 and that does not compare to the victory Laslo Djere produced against defending Champion Lorenzo Musetti.

The serve has been a big weapon this week, but Djere has shown a bit more consistency on the return compared with his overall numbers on the clay courts, while Zhang has been overachieving. Zhizhen Zhang has found a way to get to Break Points even though his return has not been the best on the surface in 2023 and he has played those points really well, but Zhang may also need a bit more out of his serve to win this match.

Both have served well in the conditions and have to be respected, but Laslo Djere looks to be performing a little bit better and can earn the edge over the course of a couple of hours on court in this Semi Final match up.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: Any player that can hand out the kind of one-sided beating that Arthur Fils put together against Casper Ruud has to be respected.

Doing so on the grass would be perhaps not so notable, but Fils crushed Ruud in the Hamburg Quarter Final on a clay court and there is no doubting the kind of confidence boost this could offer the young Frenchman.

He saw his compatriot Luca Van Assche struggle to make much of an impact against Alexander Zverev on Friday, but Arthur Fils may feel his overall game is much bigger than Van Assche's and that makes him more dangerous.

However, Arthur Fils may need to find another level even to the one he produced against Casper Ruud if he is going to be Alexander Zverev in this Semi Final. The home player has been well supported in Hamburg and Zverev has been a very strong winner in all three matches played here and is serving at a huge level.

This has allowed Zverev to really have a go when it comes to the return of serve and he has broken at least three times in all three wins. While Arthur Fils had a strong serving day in the Quarter Final, he was given more of an examination by Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round and the Fils numbers have been far overachieving his overall performance on the clay courts.

Like his opponent, Arthur Fils has used his strong serving to give him some freedom on the return of serve and that has certainly worked for him in his three wins in Hamburg.

Playing against Alexander Zverev should be much tougher and Arthur Fils will struggle to match the emotion of his Quarter Final win. It makes it all the more difficult considering how well Zverev is playing this week and the home fans can push their favourite through to the Final.

MY PICKS: Anna Bondar to Win @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10, - 1.60 Units (42 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 28th)

The Quarter Finals take centre stage on Friday at the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Hamburg event is already into the Semi Final Round.

Any selections from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals will be added to this thread on Friday, but the four Picks from the other events can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: It sounds like Alexander Zverev is going to deal with the latest allegations made against him very much in the same manner as he did the first and it has seemingly made little effect on his tennis.

He was beaten in the Quarter Final in Bastad last week, but that was against a quality player in Andrey Rublev and it is the kind of result that may have happened at any time. If there was an impact from the latest news headlines, that has not been backed up by Alexander Zverev's performances in Hamburg this week as he has produced two solid wins and the fans have not really been on his back.

This looks like another very winnable match up for him when taking on Frenchman Luca Van Assche, who was perhaps a little fortunate to come from a set behind to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round.

Luca Van Assche has proven to have a pretty effective return on the clay courts, but he is facing a big serving Alexander Zverev who has faced just three Break Points in his two wins in Hamburg. The second serve is where Van Assche has to expect to get some joy, but Alexander Zverev is getting in a high percentage of first serves and you have to believe that he will largely contain the threat from the other end of the court if Zverev can continue to make 70% plus of his first serves.

If he can do that, Alexander Zverev will certainly have a lot of faith in his own returning ability having won 43% of return points played on the clay courts this season when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those have come in eighteen matches, so far from a small sample, while the German has broken four times in both wins in this tournament.

There are plenty of positives for the 19 year old Van Assche to take, but he is still growing into his body and the serve is likely to be improved once he does so. He is only winning 58% of service points against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and Luca Van Assche has been broken in 29% of his service games played against those stronger players.

Alexander Zverev will feel his serving can be one that builds pressure on the scoreboard too and this is a match that the German can win and cover this handicap as long as he remains focused.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Arthur Fils: There have been criticisms of the kind of schedule that Casper Ruud is willing to play, but it was still a surprise to hear him speak about it in his press conference in Hamburg.

Some believe his World Ranking is not justified as he plays, and wins, a lot of the ATP 250 tournaments, but Ruud is more than a flat track bully. Any player that has reached two French Open Finals and a US Open Final deserves more respect, especially as Casper Ruud has been unfortunate to lose those three Grand Slam Finals to Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

He has not enjoyed his time too much in Hamburg this week and had criticisms of the court, while the indoor conditions might be something Ruud has to face again.

Two tough wins over Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin might have just hardened Casper Ruud and this should be a little more comfortable as a match up.

That is not being disrespectful to young Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is still learning at this level even if he won the title in Lyon before the French Open. A win over Francisco Cerundolo to take the title home is one that has to be given credit, but Arthur Fils is just 1-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and his serve has proven to be a vulnerable one in those matches.

He has played well this week to win his two matches, but Fils will know this is a significant increase in level of opponent and the suggestion is that his returning may not be up to the level that may be needed to stay with Casper Ruud.

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: These two met last week in Gstaad and the match ended prematurely when Roberto Carballes Baena had to withdraw midway through the second set.

He looks like he is better this week after winning his Second Round match while dropping four games, but Roberto Carballes Baena has had a slightly disappointing season on the clay courts, which are usually where he is considered a specialist.

Of course he is facing a former French Open Champion, but one who is not the same player he was at his best. Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find the consistency to get back towards the very top of the Tour and at 38 years old it is very difficult to imagine he will have enough of an Indian summer to at least have another strong Grand Slam run.

Improving his World Ranking would help, but that has been tough for Wawrinka who is just 27-22 over the last twelve months.

Two wins in Umag will have given Stan Wawrinka confidence and he could be tough to stop if he serves as well as he can- he is holding 83% of his service games played on the clay courts this season and Wawrinka has only dropped serve three times in his two wins here. He has broken nine times in those victories over Filip Misolic and Federico Coria and Stan Wawrinka should have success against this Carballes Baena serve.

I would not put too much stock into the match in Gstaad considering Roberto Carballes Baena had to pull out, but Stan Wawrinka should have the Break Points to win this match. That hasn't always mattered this month, but creating the chances should put Wawrinka in a position to win this match against the higher Ranked player who only won 58% of his service points against Taro Daniel in the Second Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.26 Units (32 Units Staked, - 19.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 27th)

It was shaping up to be a brutal Wednesday after a couple of matches swerved away from the winning line late on, but a couple of solid results from Umag avoided the complete disaster.

There remain some frustrations with some of the Picks that have come close to crossing the line with a win, but fallen short, although I do feel the selections are still being identified in a decent way.

Ultimately that feeling will only be the right one if the winners start to pile in and there is time to make sure this is a solid week for the selections.

The focus on Thursday will be solely on Hamburg where all three Tennis Picks are played.

Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Finally getting one over on Francisco Cerundolo will have pleased Yannick Hanfmann, even if it came via a third set retirement, and the home player should be able to back that up against Zhizhen Zhang.

You would be foolish to completely dismiss the chances of Zhizhen Zhang only because we have seen Yannick Hanfmann throw in a poor match just last week in Gstaad, but the higher Ranked player has been the superior clay courter this season.

Zhizhen Zhang was beaten by the same opponent who eventually got the better of Yannick Hanfmann last week in Gstaad, but he has been good enough to take a set from Casper Ruud at the French Open and had a strong run in Madrid where he beat top 20 Ranked players Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz in consecutive Rounds. However, the majority of his clay court tennis over the last twelve months has been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and that makes his overall numbers a little disappointing.

The serve has proven to be an effective weapon for Zhang and it will be important here, but he has not returned as well as Yannick Hanfmann who has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay this season. If you remove the nine clay court matches played against opponents inside the top 50, Hanfmann's break percentage improves slightly to 30% and he has served just as well as Zhizhen Zhang in the main.

The lower Ranked player has broken in 21% of return games played on this surface in 2023 and again it has to be noted that the majority of those have been against opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. In those six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhang's break percentage drops to 14% in games and this should mean Yannick Hanfmann has the edge in terms of chances to get to Break Point.

Numbers don't always tell the full story and Yannick Hanfmann has just produced a 'big' win which can be tough to back up. However, having the home support should help and produce a much better all around effort than the one he had in his loss last week, while the German has a 23-8 record on the clay when looking at results against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings.

He has won fourteen out of eighteen matches on the clay against players Ranked lower than him when they have played, and he would have covered this handicap margin in eleven of the thirteen best of three set matches Hanfmann has won.

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 games v Eva Lys: This has already been a strong week for Eva Lys who is pushing back towards her career high World Ranking after back to back wins in Hamburg.

In both matches she has beaten higher Ranked opponents and has opened up the draw by beating the Number 2 Seed in the draw, while the German home crowd will give Eva Lys another boost.

The run has been a surprise considering Lys had lost all four clay court matches played in 2023 prior to the start of the tournament in Hamburg. She has made use of her place in the main draw and Eva Lys has to be respected for not only winning her matches, but winning in the style she has been with dominant results.

You have to expect this to be a much sterner examination for the home player than she has had in the tournament so far when facing Arantxa Rus, although the World Number 60 has already had to spend over five hours on the court. Winning will help, but Rus would have preferred to have avoided having to win a deciding set in each of her two wins this week.

On paper this should be an 'easier' test, but Lys has some momentum behind her.

However, I have to like the fact that Arantxa Rus has a 30-5 record on the clay courts when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, and that record becomes 26-2 when only considering matches against opponents outside of the top 100. Only one loss has been against a player lower in the World Rankings than Rus when the match has been played and you have to believe her returning will be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final.

Eva Lys will feel her own returning has been effective enough to create Break Points considering how she has played this week. She has been able to step up her own personal level when facing players Ranked higher than herself on the clay courts in her career, but Eva Lys may just find Arantxa Rus a little too battle hardened in this one.

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 games v Noma Noha Akugue: There are a couple of home players that have made it through to the Hamburg Quarter Final and both have surprised by managing to do that.

Out of the two, Noma Noha Akugue has certainly had a tougher time than Eva Lys, although you have to respect the character shown in coming back from 6-0, 5-4 down to win the match in three tough sets. The two and a half hours spent on the court should not be an issue for the young lefty, but Noha Akugue would have invested a lot of emotional energy into her Second Round win over Storm Hunter.

It will see her move into a new career high World Ranking come Monday morning, but Noma Noha Akugue is going to have to beat a tough clay courter in the Quarter Final when going up against Martina Trevisan.

The Italian is another lefty and her two wins this week have been impressive in what has otherwise been a mixed year on the clay courts. Martina Trevisan had been able to look after serve well enough this week and that has seen her dominate her two matches, although it is a vulnerable shot and makes it a little harder to trust Trevisan to cover big handicaps.

However, Martina Trevisan has been able to beat players she is expected to beat with her three losses against players Ranked below her being against Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and in a retirement.

Breaks have to be expected in a match like this, but Martina Trevisan can put Noma Noha Akugue under pressure with her clay court nous and the German player could be a little flatter after a big win on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 4.08 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.69% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 26th)

The events being played this week have been affected by the rain and it has led to a number of matches in Umag and Lausanne that have to be played on Wednesday having originally been scheduled to be played on Tuesday.

Hamburg has also been a wet tournament, and there could be some more poor weather to come, although that is an event that has a court with a roof which is a bonus.

With the Second Round beginning and some First Round matches to be completed, Wednesday is going to be another busy day. The Tennis Picks for the day can be seen below and I am looking to push on from a winning day to try and put a strong week in the books.

Once again the main focus is on the event in Hamburg, but there are a few selections from the other events that are being played this week.

Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Strong clay court form post-Wimbledon has taken Sebastian Ofner into a career high World Ranking and his Seeding in the Umag draw meant direct entry into the Second Round.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in Bastad in the week after winning a title in Salzburg and so there has to be a confidence in his tennis right now. We did not always see that in his two tough wins last week, but this should be a favourable enough match up for Ofner on the red dirt of Umag.

Motivation may be the biggest question mark with a clay court tournament in Austria coming up next week, one that Sebastian Ofner will be targeting for a successful week. That may mean he is not ready to put in the fight he needs to really have a deep run in Umag, and Ofner is not going to be good enough to win matches without a full effort.

This potential lack of motivation is a concern for sure, but Sebastian Ofner has been given a decent draw against Alexei Popyrin who is not exactly known for his clay court pedigree. It is something of a surprise to see the Australian in Europe after Wimbledon rather than the hard courts of North America, and this is the first tournament Popyrin is playing after a disappointing grass court season as far as he is concerned.

After coming through Qualifiers, Alexei Popyrin did have solid runs at the clay court Masters events in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier this year so he cannot be written off. The serve can still be a big weapon for him, even on the slower clay courts, and that can build scoreboard pressure on opponents.

Alexei Popyrin does hold 85% of his service games that have been played on the red dirt, but that number drops a little bit when only considering matches against opponents who come in as higher Ranked players. He is 3-6 in those matches this season and Popyrin has really had issues on the return of serve, something that Sebastian Ofner has to look to exploit.

These two have split two previous meetings with Popyrin winning on the grass last year and Sebastian Ofner holding a hard court win from 2018. The clay courts should give the Austrian a bit more of an edge and he can do enough to win this match and cover this handicap mark.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Sebastian Baez: For a lot of players, a long week on the Tour can take something out of the legs and it can be hard to replicate the success of one tournament in the next one played.

However, Casper Ruud has shown he can handle the European summer after Wimbledon and is happy to head to three different clay court tournaments and expect himself to produce his best tennis in each of those.

Last week Ruud ended as Runner Up to Andrey Rublev in Bastad, but he has been given until Wednesday to begin his Hamburg efforts as he looks to win another title on the red dirt. In his career, nine of ten titles won have been in clay court events and Casper Ruud took the title home in Estoril earlier this year in an event where he beat Sebastian Baez on the way to the trophy.

That match up came in the Quarter Final, but Sebastian Baez has been struggling for form in recent weeks and an early loss in Bastad will not have helped the confidence of a player that has slipped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings. He was Number 30 back in April, which underlines the recent issues Sebastian Baez has had, although he is a solid clay courter who will need to be respected.

Unfortunately, Baez has struggled when facing the elite on the surface and has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the red dirt this season, including that straight sets loss to Casper Ruud in Estoril.

Half of the sixteen clay court matches won by Sebastian Baez this season came during the early Golden Swing in South America and his numbers have been a little weaker on serve and return since the clay court events in Europe have begun to be played.

Sebastian Baez can be dangerous on the clay courts and has taken a set from both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie on this surface this season, but Casper Ruud might be playing at a higher level than both of those players on the clay courts.

He might need a bit of time to get rolling, but Ruud should be able to create the majority of Break Points and in more return games than the other way around and he can win this match with a bit of comfort on the scoreboard.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: There haven't been too many 16 year old tennis players making the kind of impression Mirra Andreeva is doing on the Tour and the young player can make her way through to the Quarter Final in Luasanne.

This is a big spread for someone so young to cover, but Mirra Andreeva is making short work of opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts. This season she has a 20-1 record against such opponents on this surface, while Andreeva has an unbelievable 34-3 mark against players outside of the top 100 on the clay in her career.

From any player that would be impressive, but for a recently turned 16 year old, it just underlines the potential that so many believe Andreeva is destined to fulfil.

Sixteen of her twenty wins against players outside the top 50 on the clay would have seen Mirra Andreeva cover this handicap mark set and it is going to be very difficult for Anna Bondar to stay with her barring having a huge serving day.

Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 50, but injury and loss of form has seen her fall out of the top 100.

Anna Bondar has beaten Karolina Pliskova on the clay this season, but she has a 2-5 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2023. She was well beaten last week by another young Russian player, Elina Avanesyan, and it feels like a match where Bondar is going to be under immense pressure in the majority of service games played.

The Mirra Andreeva serve is still a work in progress, which is not a surprise considering her age, but the World Number 64 looks after that shot effectively enough to believe she produces another strong win here in Switzerland before yet another jump in her career best World Ranking mark.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Arnaldi - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 25th)

A quiet start to the week saw a couple of Picks split with a win and loss apiece, while Mirra Andreeva had a change in opponent.

That did not stop the young player from crushing Dayana Yastremska and Andreeva continues to look like a potential superstar in the making. Her serve will only improve as she gets older, while the return already makes her very dangerous and the overall tennis being produced is very impressive from a 16 year old.

A much busier day is in store on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played in the five tournament venues hosting tournaments.

My main focus early in the week is the joint ATP and WTA tournament being played in Hamburg, although there is also a selection from the ATP Umag event taking place on the clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: Any player coming through the Qualifiers has to be considered dangerous early on in a tournament, even for the top Seeds in the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti has to appreciate the fact that Elias Ymer has won two matches here in straight sets and he has clearly put the defeat to Leo Borg last week in Bastad behind him. Circumstances were not ideal with brother Mikael announcing he had been given an eighteen month suspension on the morning of the Elias Ymer match with Borg, but that was a painful loss all the same against someone Ymer should be beating.

He has looked strong in the Qualifiers, but Elias Ymer will know there is a considerable gap to bridge to the World Number 18 who lost a couple of places after his Semi Final defeat in Bastad last week. The Italian played well in his first two matches, but Musetti still has a tendency to leave players hanging around within matches, while has not always played his best tennis against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

This season Lorenzo Musetti only holds a 3-4 record in those matches on the clay courts, which is a massive surprise and perhaps suggests he does not focus as he should do. Three of those four losses have been against players who were lowly Ranked earlier in the year, but who are well inside the top 100 now and Musetti was able to win two matches as expected last week before he fell to Casper Ruud in the Semi Final.

His return should be effective against the Elias Ymer serve, which has given up plenty of Break Points in the few matches he has had against top 100 Ranked opponents. The Swede does have a couple of wins on the clay courts in those matches, but was well beaten by Casper Ruud in the First Round of the French Open and Elias Ymer is expected to be put under pressure from the Musetti serve.

Elias Ymer can play well enough to create Break Points of his own, but this should be a match that is played on the Lorenzo Musetti racquet and the Italian can break down the Qualifier and pull away for a strong win.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Pedro Cachin: In general, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has beaten opponents that he would have expected to on the clay courts this season, but he did suffer a disappointing exit in Bastad last week.

The defeat has dropped his mark to 7-2 on the clay against opponents Ranked outside the top 20, although the Spaniard has the chance to make up for that when playing in the First Round in Hamburg.

Overall it has been a tough twelve months for Davidovich Fokina who has lost more matches than he has won, despite some quality performances. Stretching the wins together has been an issue and the Spaniard is close to slipping out of the top 40 in the World Rankings so this is an important tournament for him after reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg twelve months ago.

His return has not been an issue on the red dirt, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has not looked after his serve as well as he would have liked, although the numbers have been stronger when facing those outside of the elite on the Tour. Last week the serve kept Davidovich Fokina under pressure having to facing eight Break Points and he will need to be better when taking on a player who will be feeling really good after a very successful week.

Pedro Cachin is at a new career high World Ranking after winning the title in Gstaad on Sunday, the first ATP Tour title he has won his career.

He has played some solid tennis this season, but the emotion of Sunday could leave Pedro Cachin short both mentally and physically when he heads to the court just a couple of days later. The serve was a big weapon for him and Cachin was good for the Tennis Picks with wins in the Semi Final and Final, but it has to be noted that he has still to show more when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.

Last week he beat Roberto Bautista Agut to move to 3-5 in those matches in 2023, but Pedro Cachin was perhaps a little fortunate to win that tight match. His numbers have been dented in those tougher matches, although I would certainly give him more of a chance in this one if Cachin had not just played a long week with an emotional outcome.

A strong start may see him push through, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that may be in play and he can win and cover.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex Molcan: For the third time this season, Alexander Zverev and Alex Molcan are meeting in a clay court match on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev won very comfortably in Paris at the French Open, but he was made to work much harder last week in Bastad and needed all three sets to be played before earning a passage into the Second Round.

Some of that was down to wastefulness on Break Points with Zverev winning just four out of fifteen attempts compared with Alex Molcan's three conversions from six chances. He created a lot of chances to break in Paris too, but Alexander Zverev was much more ruthless on that day, while he also looked after the second serve a lot more effectively too.

Allegations from his personal life cannot be helping Alexander Zverev, but he has played on the Tour with those hovering over this head before and it was not the reason he was outplayed by Andrey Rublev in Bastad. Being back in front of home supporters should at least give Zverev more motivation having reached the Semi Final the last time he played in Hamburg and this is a match where he is expected to have plenty more Break Points.

Alex Molcan is struggling for form, but might have taken some confidence in winning a set against Alexander Zverev last week. He would have hoped for a kinder draw in Hamburg than having to face Zverev again, especially as Molcan has lost three matches in a row on the clay courts and having had a difficult time behind his serve.

He has played the big points well enough to avoid dropping serve at times, but this leads to pressure on his overall tennis and Molcan has been having his struggles on the court.

Maybe he can serve well enough to save another eleven Break Points in this match, but Alexander Zverev should be motivated to have a strong week in Hamburg and he can win this one with the Breaks needed to cover.

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Last year Francisco Cerundolo won the title in Bastad and reached the Semi Final in Hamburg in consecutive weeks on the clay courts, but his defence of the Bastad title ended in the Semi Final on Saturday.

The performance in the tournament was strong and Cerundolo was very unlucky to lose to Andrey Rublev, the eventual winner, so there is little doubt that this is going to be a confident player arriving in Hamburg.

He is facing one of the home players in the draw in Yannick Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo holds three wins over this opponent on the clay courts since February 2022. One of those came in straight sets at the French Open a couple of months ago and Francisco Cerundolo does look like he will enjoy the match up that Hanfmann brings to him.

In their two matches this year, Francisco Cerundolo has created thirty-three Break Point chances compared with eighteen for Yannick Hanfmann. The favourite will want to win a high percentage of the first serves that go in, but Francisco Cerundolo also has to be confident he can win the rallies that develop from second serves and he can make it four in a row against this opponent.

Yannick Hanfmann has enjoyed a solid year on the clay courts which has helped drag his World Ranking back up to Number 45, which is a career high mark. However, his service numbers have declined significantly when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this year and you have to believe that Francisco Cerundolo has the returning ability to keep the home player under pressure.

Nothing comes easy against Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo has all of the tools in his tennis to keep his run of wins going against the German player.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mayar Sherif - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)