Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2023 (January 21st)

Day 6 at the Australian Open sees the completion of the Third Round and we will be set for the business end of the tournament.

Upsets continue to be seen throughout both draws, but that should make for an exciting end to the opening Grand Slam of the season with a number of players 'expecting' to win the title.

As we move further into the draw, the quality of the matches should also continue to improve.

The Tennis Picks from Day 5 were largely successful and once again the numbers are moving in a positive direction.

There is still a lot of work to do to have a winning event, but I am happy with the way the opening week has gone as long as I can round off with another productive day on Saturday.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There is an obvious concern with the Novak Djokovic hamstring issue that was seen in the Second Round and something that had been a problem heading into the Australian Open, but the nine time Champion in Melbourne has remained in the tournament. That is more than some of the other players around him that have also been affected by injury problems and Novak Djokovic will have had a day of rest to try and manage his condition.

The draw is only going to get tougher from here on out and Novak Djokovic will next be faced by Grigor Dimitrov.

The veteran of the Tour has opened 2023 playing in superb form and that includes Grigor Dimitrov taking Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets at the United Cup earlier in the month. He has completely overrun the two opponents played at Melbourne Park, although Dimitrov will know full well of the challenge in front of him having lost nine of ten matches played against Novak Djokovic, including all six played on the hard courts.

Grigor Dimitrov has found a way to be competitive at times and that is not a surprise considering the talent he has, but Novak Djokovic has dominated the numbers overall and only the hamstring complaint will potentially hold back the former World Number 1.

Any hopes of an upset may depend on how well Grigor Dimitrov serves- he has only faced a single Break Point in the tournament and has yet to drop serve, which has contributed in freeing up the arm when it comes to the return. Serving as well as that against Novak Djokovic is a huge challenge for any player considering the Serb is arguably the best return player of all time, and in their head to head matches it has been the return that has put Dimitrov under immense pressure.

Like his opponent, Novak Djokovic has yet to drop serve this week too and he won the tournament in Adelaide while losing his serve just three times. This is a completely underrated part of the Djokovic game and I think he will put himself in a position to secure a good looking win as long as his hamstring holds up.

I think he will manage it well enough to do that and Novak Djokovic has held 88% of his service games played against Grigor Dimitrov on a hard court compared with the 69% mark for the Bulgarian.

Over the last twelve months, Grigor Dimitrov has found the top 10 Ranked players too hot to handle on the hard courts and his numbers have reflected that having produced a 1-4 record against those opponents on this surface. He has suffered some pretty one-sided defeats in that time and his return has not been good enough to put pressure on the best players on the Tour and I think something similar will occur in this Third Round match.

Novak Djokovic's fans will be concerned with his injury and how he will manage it, but he has shown in Australia before that he has almost superhuman powers of recovery and mental strength to overcome physical challenges and still win this Grand Slam title. I think he takes another step towards a tenth Grand Slam title in Melbourne with a strong win against a talented opponent who has not really reached the level many would have predicted for him.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Andy Murray: I am 0-2 on Andy Murray matches this week, although I am still not sure how he managed to fight back from two sets down and beat Thanasi Kokkinakis in the Second Round. That match lasted almost six hours and finished at a ridiculous time in the early hours of Friday morning and I simply do not know how Murray will be ready to compete in the Third Round.

One match alone lasting that length of time would be hard enough to deal with, but 35 year old Andy Murray with a metal hip needed almost five hours to win his First Round match. Some players won't have spent almost eleven hours on the court through the first week and I think it is a mammoth challenge for Andy Murray to prepare physically and emotionally for this match.

He is playing a veteran who also needed to fight back from two sets down in the Second Round, but Roberto Bautista Agut managed to turn things in his favour and win that match in under three hours. The win over a Qualifier has continued the Spaniard's strong start to 2023 and Roberto Bautista Agut remains a consistent threat, which is going to test Andy Murray's resolve to the fullest.

While he could play aggressive tennis against Kokkinakis and Matteo Berrettini, rallies could be much longer and gruelling against someone like Roberto Bautista Agut and I think that is going to be too much for Andy Murray to handle.

These two actually met here in Melbourne in 2019 in the First Round just days after Andy Murray hinted at retirement and it was Roberto Bautista Agut who came through in five sets in a match that lasted over four hours. The Spaniard blew a two set lead that day before rallying in the Fifth Set, but Roberto Bautista Agut has dominated the two matches they have played against one another since then and should have really won that match in Australia in 2019 in much more straight-forward fashion.

In the three matches beginning with the Australian Open meeting in 2019, Roberto Bautista Agut has won 95% of the service games played against Andy Murray compared with 65% for the British player. He beat Murray in straight sets on an indoor court in Basel a little over three months ago and I do think the consistency and the willingness to spend as long as he needs on the court will make this a step too far for Andy Murray.

This is a big handicap mark for Roberto Bautista Agut to cover and I would not have been touching it at this line if Andy Murray had not had other factors going against him. He looked shattered at the end of the Second Round match and I am not sure there is much left in the tank to push the World Number 25 for long enough to stay with him.

Even the additional time of being placed on the Night Session may not be enough recovery time for Andy Murray and I will look for Roberto Bautista Agut to end his run in Melbourne for the second time in five years.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-16, + 5.56 Units (76 Units Staked, + 7.32% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2023 (January 20th)

A couple of frustrating moments over the last couple of days have meant being unable to back up the First Round successes with the same in the Second Round.

Instead it was a much tougher couple of days thanks to two matches both seeing a pivotal third set move against the selections made.

At one point it looked like being a solid enough Day 4, but things twisted late and it has been back to back disappointing days for the Tennis Picks.

Day 5 will move into the Third Round action and that should mean better quality of matches.

The best two matches of the tournament so far have both involved Andy Murray, although the Australian Open organisers are going to have to do something with the way they operate the Night Session going forward.

Andy Murray and Thanasi Kokkinakis deserved so much better than having to compete past 3:30am and I am not sure how the organisers expect players to recover and head out onto the court on Day 6 with a realistic hope of winning matches.

Once again it has led to some suggesting best of five set matches should be scrapped, but I don't buy into that and I actually think they would be better off either starting the 'Night' session around two hours earlier or leaving only one match to be scheduled for the time slot rather than two that we have right now.

Either way there will be questions for the organisers and those in Paris and New York City to answer going forward.

Most of the big names are through to the Third Round, although both draws have lost big players too. Rafael Nadal went out on Wednesday and both Casper Ruud and Ons Jabeur, Grand Slam Finalists in 2022, were beaten in their own Second Round matches played on Thursday.

With Novak Djokovic struggling to stay on top of his hamstring complaint and Iga Swiatek also with some fitness doubts around her, I do think both Singles titles are there for the taking for any of the players who have been close, but not quite gotten over the line before.

Picking a winner is still tough- Daniil Medvedev has impressed in the men's and Aryna Sabalenka looks the danger in the women's draw- but at the moment it is still difficult to oppose Djokovic and Swiatek.

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Many have already spoken about the potential of Sebastian Korda and 2023 has started well enough to believe this may be the breakthrough year for the young American. At 22 years old, Sebastian Korda is approaching his career best World Ranking and I think he has to be focusing on cracking the top 20 as a minimum this year, while perhaps looking for a strong run or two at the major tournaments that are played on the Tour.

He reached the Final in Adelaide in the build up to the first Grand Slam of the season and Sebastian Korda managed to push Novak Djokovic to three sets, although he did come up short.

After reaching the second week at both the French Open and Wimbledon before, Sebastian Korda is looking to do the same at a Grand Slam played on the hard courts for the first time. He has matched his run to the Third Round from last year, but Korda will also be well aware that he has to be better than he has produced in the Australian Open if he is going to upset the back to back Runner Up at this tournament.

Daniil Medvedev has looked very comfortable back on the courts at Melbourne Park, but he is a smart player and will know that the players beaten in the first two Rounds are not of the level that Sebastian Korda can bring to the court. Like his opponent, Daniil Medvedev's run in Adelaide was ended by Novak Djokovic, this time in the Semi Final, but he has long been one of the top hard court players on the Tour and I do think the World Number 8 is going to come out on top of this match.

Out of the two players, it feels like the Daniil Medvedev serve is a little more reliable, while he will feel he is one of the top return players on the Tour anyway. That pressure is likely to be exerted on the Sebastian Korda game and the younger player is going to have to play the big points really well to stay with Medvedev in this Third Round match.

Neither of the players has served as well they would have liked at the tournament and that may have something to do with the tennis balls being used, which have been criticised by many of the players. They have contributed to making this feel like slower conditions than players would expect of the hard courts, but I do think it probably suits Daniil Medvedev a little more with his ability to keep the ball in the court.

Sebastian Korda has already faced thirty Break Points in this tournament compared with thirteen for Daniil Medvedev, while the latter has earned significantly more chances to Break even considering he has played two fewer sets.

These two met in Paris a little over twelve months ago and it was Daniil Medvedev's returning that made a big difference in the outcome of that match. I expect the same to happen here in the Third Round and Daniil Medvedev can cover what is a very big line at this stage of the tournament.

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: He may not have shown it, but Cameron Norrie has to have been disappointed to have failed to win the title in Auckland when losing to Richard Gasquet in the Final.

Instead he has talked up the positives of the run and how it has prepared him for the Australian Open and the British Number 1 is a favourite to reach the second week in Melbourne for the first time in his career. The World Number 12 has a pretty unremarkable Grand Slam record for someone in his position and that just seems to underline the fact that Cameron Norrie is very good when it comes to beating those players he should do.

It means having a strong record below the Grand Slam level and Cameron Norrie has largely dominated players from outside the top 20 of the World Rankings as he has compiled a 32-7 record on the hard courts against those opponents in a twelve month period.

His two victories so far this week have come against players Ranked Number 143 and 55, although Cameron Norrie made harder work of the Second Round match than it perhaps should have been. That is a worry for Norrie as the competition gets harder with his next opponent having already beaten one Seed in the tournament.

Jiri Lehecka has only just turned 21 years old and so is learning his craft on the Tour and he has only dropped a single set on his way into the Third Round. The First Round win over Borna Coric has opened up this section of the draw, but Jiri Lehecka will know how tough the challenge in front of him could be having suffered both losses in 2023 to players Ranked inside the top 12, including once against Cameron Norrie.

The serve can be a big weapon for the Czech player when he is at his best, but he has two losses on the resume against Cameron Norrie and both on a hard court. You have to credit Jiri Lehecka for taking a set in both matches, but he has been clearly second best in those matches judging by the numbers.

In those two previous matches, Cameron Norrie has created a lot more break points in both, including when they met in Auckland earlier this month. I have to credit Jiri Lehecka for playing the big points as well as he has against Cameron Norrie, but the British player is the superior player at this stage of their careers and I think that will show up here.

Jiri Lehecka does have a couple of top 20 wins on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but one of those was against Alexander Zverev earlier this month, a player who has only just returned to the Tour following a major injury last June.

As long as Cameron Norrie doesn't lose his focus or feel the nerves about reaching the second week at a Slam, I think he should have enough to win well.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 16-13, + 0.38 Units (58 Units Staked, + > 1% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2023 (January 19th)

The disruption of Day 2 and a busy day in general for me has meant this is going to be a shorter thread than the others this week.

With the Australian Open well underway, the remaining Second Round matches will be completed on Day 4 as some players are forced to play on back to back days at a Grand Slam event. That is far from ideal, although the big names have made their way through as scheduled thanks to the privilege of being scheduled to play on one of the show courts, which means the roof will allow matches to be played on time even when conditions for others make that impossible.

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: For a long time we have been waiting to see Caroline Garcia really fulfil the obvious potential she had and a brave decision was made by the Frenchwoman to tell of struggles off the court that had perhaps held her back. She looks to be in a much better place physically and emotionally right now and winning the WTA Finals should propel Caroline Garcia forward.

After playing some solid tennis in preparation for the opening Grand Slam of the 2023 season, Caroline Garcia was a comfortable winner over a young Canadian in the First Round. In the Second Round she faces a younger Canadian than Katherine Sebov, but one who demands even greater respect considering Leylah Fernandez is a former US Open Finalist.

Matching that incredible two weeks and finding the consistency on the Tour has been the challenge for Leylah Fernandez over the last sixteen months, but it has been tough. She did reach a career high World Ranking last August, but Leylah Fernandez has now dipped back down to World Number 40 and both young Finalists from the US Open in 2021 have struggled to back up that impressive tournament showing.

Much like her opponent, Leylah Fernandez was able to beat a compatriot of Caroline Garcia in the First Round and the manner of the victory over Alize Cornet is impressive. However, you cannot ignore the numbers that say Leylah Fernandez is still a fairly average hard court player and one that has a 5-7 record against top 50 Ranked players over the last twelve months on this surface.

You have to accept that Fernandez is someone who can get very hot within a tournament and that will see her string the wins together, but Caroline Garcia has to feel her serve can keep the younger player under control.

Leylah Fernandez has not had a top 20 win on the hard courts since Indian Wells in October 2021 and over the last twelve months she is 0-4 in those matches and largely been well beaten. In fact the Canadian has won a single set out of the nine played.

Caroline Garcia looks like a player that could challenge for a maiden Grand Slam in 2023, but I have to accept that her numbers have not been as impressive as they perhaps should have been. One of the areas of clear improvement has to be on the return of serve and Garcia has won fewer than 40% of return points played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, and that is a mark that is not overcome even when accounting for opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.

It also makes it hard to really trust her when it comes to covering spreads like this one, but I do think Carolina Garcia is playing at a superior level to Leylah Fernandez and has been for a number of months now.

The higher Ranked player should be helped by the pressure she can exert through her serving as Leylah Fernandez has won just 33% of return points played against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. With the Garcia serve operating as it is right now, I think the World Number 4 can win and cover here.

MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Linda Fruhvirtova - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 13-7, + 6.98 Units (40 Units Staked, + 17.45% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (January 18th)

The weather is going to settle down in Melbourne over the next few days, but it was a very strange day for the fans and players on Day 2 at the tournament.

To have a heat delay during the day is perhaps not that surprising considering the temperatures we can see in Melbourne, but on the same day there was a significant rain delay and it means a number of First Round matches have to be held over until Wednesday.

One problem for the organisers of the tournament is that Melbourne Park could be experiencing another extremely wet day- while three courts have roofs attached and can keep going, the tournament structure could be severely impacted. For starters, the majority of the matches scheduled for the show courts are Second Round matches from the top half of the draw and a really wet day will mean some players are through to the Third Round while others have not completed their First Round outings.

It could mean Day 4 is a very busy, while some of the Second Round matches involving players in the bottom half of the draw could be pushed into Day 5. This is far from ideal for those having to wait to complete matches as it could mean having to play on three consecutive days, which is especially difficult for the men playing best of five set matches.

That is something that will have to be considered when making selections going forward, although the biggest names will be happy enough as they remain scheduled to play on the main show courts, which will not be impacted by rain delays.

Day 1 was a strong one, but my Tennis Picks went 1-1 on Day 2, although two players are part way through their matches.

Thanasi Kokkinakis looks in a very strong position with a two set lead and already up a break in the third set, while Roberto Bautista Agut's match with Joao Sousa is still in the early stages of the second set.

On Day 3 the Second Round is scheduled to be played and you can read my Picks below.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: After admitting he was 'vulnerable' in the tough First Round draw given to him, Rafael Nadal rallied at just the right time to avoid becoming the first defending Champion dumped out in the opening Round of the following Australian Open in a couple of generations.

It was not always plain sailing for Rafael Nadal against the talented youngster Jack Draper and he even had a bit of a back and forth with his team as he struggled to get going. A poor second set saw the match levelled, but Nadal's vulnerabilities were not able to be completely exposed as Draper was let down by his own physical problems.

Rafael Nadal still feels it is going to take something special to defend the title he won twelve months ago, but he will be happier with a win under his belt. That means having a couple more days to get into this tournament, while also being able to build some rhythm ahead of this Second Round match on Day 3 at the tournament.

This should be a more comfortable match for Rafael Nadal- in the First Round there was a feeling that Jack Draper's aggressiveness and big game could be a real problem for the Spaniard, but Mackenzie McDonald is not expected to be as successful with that kind of approach.

Instead the American has long been a player that the top players feel comfortable facing with the rhythm you can build when facing McDonald, and that is summed up by his 1-11 record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts through his career. The win over Brandon Nakashima will have given Mackenzie McDonald some real confidence, but he had to spend over four hours on the court and that is going to have a physical impact on the lower Ranked player, something that will be tested and pushed by Nadal in this Second Round match.

Mackenzie McDonald can force opponents to have to hit an extra shot or two with his defensive skills, but this feels like a match that is going to be dictated by Rafael Nadal's racquet.

I do think Rafael Nadal is still nowhere near the kind of fitness level that he would have hoped to have had in Melbourne, but I think he will appreciate this match up. It should mean he can continue to build into the Australian Open and I do think he can cover a line that would have been at least two games higher if there were not the fitness concerns around the top Seed in the draw.

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 games v Jason Kubler: The run to the Semi Final at the US Open underlines the kind of talent that Karen Khachanov has, but he has not really found the consistency on the Tour that he would have hoped for.

He made a strong start here in Melbourne, where Karen Khachanov has had successes before, and I do think he will be able to handle the occasion. In January 2020 he faced Nick Kyrgios at the Australian Open and the crowd will never be as rabid as they get when Kyrgios is on the court so this match should feel serene in comparison for the Russian player.

Jason Kubler will be well backed, but he has a significant talent gap to bridge to Karen Khachanov.

The Australian has made a strong start to 2023, but it is a very small sample of matches played and the overall numbers from the last twelve months suggests Jason Kubler will do well to win two sets in this best of five set match. The return of serve is the strength for Kubler, but this is a big serve that is going to be in front of him and that only puts pressure on the lower Ranked player to serve at his very best.

Karen Khachanov is not really a player that has the best return numbers, but he can be aggressive on this side of the net and that could exert the pressure to break through and win this match.

I am expecting Khachanov to win this one three or four sets and that should be good enough to find the breaks of serve to cover this line.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-2, + 5.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.25% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (January 17th)

The first Grand Slam of the season is underway, but I did say in the Day 1 thread that I will have a few thoughts about how I believe the tournament could progress.

The men's tournament is still led by two veterans in Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although the latter has been a fitness worry entering the Australian Open and showed very little to suggest he can go all the way in his First Round win over Jack Draper.

One or two concerns were raised about Novak Djokovic, but I am really not surprised that he is the odds on favourite to return to Melbourne and secure yet another Australian Open title and join his great rival Rafael Nadal on twenty-two career Slam titles.

Splitting these two legends in the market is Daniil Medvedev, the Runner Up in each of the last two years. I am not sure how he was beaten in the Final last year when seemingly firmly in control, and I am not sure Medvedev has much of an explanation himself, but he could take advantage in the top half of the draw.

Jannik Sinner is a dark horse having reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and I think I would be pretty surprised if the winner is not one of those names I've mentioned. I don't think Rafael Nadal can win the event barring a massive improvement in his fitness, and Novak Djokovic looks the rightful favourite.

Not for the first time in recent years, the women's event looks wide open and even more so when you think of some of the doubts around Iga Swiatek, the current World Number 1 and favourite to win the tournament.

Some suggested Iga Swiatek might not have been ready to compete, but she is in the draw and that means some big prices are available on some of the other key names to look out for.

I've long thought Aryna Sabalenka would win a Grand Slam and she looked in decent form leading into the Australian Open, while the timing might be right for Cori Gauff to really become a superstar of the sport.

In reality I think you could pick out ten names that have the potential to get hot over the next fortnight and take home a Grand Slam title- players like Caroline Garcia, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari all have to be respected.

Rather than ask me which of the two are most likely to make the Final a week on Saturday, I think you would have just as much a chance of getting your prediction right if you tossed ten names in the air and picked the two that landed the right way up.

The openness of the draw can be a stick that critics use to beat the WTA Tour, but I think it does make it intriguing for the fans. Making picks from the women's game can be a touch more hazardous though with players moving in and out of form every few days, let alone few tournaments, but I am hoping we can get two or three players who move clear of the pack to join Iga Swiatek as the top players on this Tour.

Day 1 is in the books and it was a decent start for the Tennis Picks.

While we have a loaded Day 2 schedule with the remainder of the First Round to be played, selections look a little harder to find and you can see my Picks below.

Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: There always plenty of intriguing storylines and players to watch at the start of any Grand Slam event and we do have some very good looking First Round matches at the Australian Open in 2023. Arguably the best of the bunch is the match between Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray as the two players hope for a year free from injury.

Both of these players have experienced success in Melbourne, although Andy Murray must always wonder how he was not able to win a Grand Slam title here. Those days of challenging for Slam titles look behind him, but Murray has arrived at the Australian Open in bullish mood and feels he is much closer to his best, which will allow him to take on the best players on the Tour with a real ambition to beat those players.

He did reach the Third Round at the US Open last September, but the run was ended at the hands of Matteo Berrettini in four sets and the same player will be in front of Murray to open his 2023 Grand Slam season.

2022 proved to be a tough year for Matteo Berrettini following his run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and he missed significant time on the court, including being unable to play at Wimbledon the year after reaching the Final in SW19. There we no Ranking points available at Wimbledon, but Matteo Berrettini has slipped out of the top ten in the World Rankings with the time spent away from the Tour and there will be some pressure to match the run he had at the Australian Open last year to prevent another slippage.

Matteo Berrettini has shown he is a confident player on any surface and his serve is a very dangerous weapon on the hard courts.

He wins a high percentage of points behind serve and unsurprisingly that means Matteo Berrettini is able to hold plenty of his service games. There is still room for improvement on the return of serve, but Matteo Berrettini has had more success when facing Andy Murray and has broken in 22% of the returns games played against this opponent.

In the two previous hard court matches against Andy Murray, Matteo Berrettini has broken in 21% of return games played compared with a 12% mark for the former World Number 1. When they met at the US Open, Matteo Berrettini created almost four times more Break Points than Andy Murray managed to do on the day and the performances at the United Cup showed that Berrettini might be feeling his confidence returning on the court.

I like Andy Murray and there was a time when he had the athleticism and returning skills to give an opponent like Matteo Berrettini fits.

However, Murray has never really gotten back to his top level on the court on this side of the net and I think he will be competitive, but ultimately come up short in a similar manner as when these players met in New York City.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The long recovery from injury for Dominic Thiem will have tested the former US Open Champion mentally and is only just inside the top 100 of the World Rankings these days.

He did have some decent runs at events after the US Open, but Dominic Thiem was well beaten in his first match of 2023 and this is a tough test for him.

Andrey Rublev may not be playing as well as he would like, but he had a strong World Tour Finals at the end of the 2022 season and three wins in a row over this opponent will give the Russian player a lot of confidence with the match up in front of him.

There is a lot to like about the way Andrey Rublev takes to matches on any surface and his aggression makes him dangerous. The serve has become a strong weapon for him and I think Rublev will be able to move into a position to earn his first win of the 2023 season after disappointing defeats in back to back events played in Adelaide.

Those losses will have dented some of the confidence, but Rublev will feel his opposite number is also having some issues finding the consistency he would want and the three wins in a row against the Austrian has to give Andrey Rublev more belief.

It is a spread that suggests the layers are not entirely sure what to expect from Andrey Rublev, but it may also be a line that represents what Dominic Thiem is capable of at his best. He has yet to find that level on his return from a long-term injury though and I think Rublev will be able to win this one in three or four sets, which should give him the opportunity to cover this line.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 5-1, + 6.52 Units (12 Units Staked, + 54.33% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (January 16th)

It is one of the shortest off-seasons in professional sports, but the Tennis Tour has returned for another long slog in 2023.

We are already two weeks into the season, but that is usually a time when I would take a look and see how players have used the time off between tournaments, while others are overcoming early fitness issues and mentally preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.

Over the last several months I have taken a bit of time away from the Tennis Picks as I have made a readjustment to how I am identifying selections. I believe I was making one or two mistakes with the selection process and that has to be improved going into the 2023 season after the drop between the 2021 and 2022 successes.

I will have a fuller post for Day 2 with a few thoughts on the draw at the Australian Open, but the nature of the event and the time difference between Melbourne and London means the focus in this thread is on the Day 1 Picks as the opening Slam of what could be another intriguing tennis season begins on Monday.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Kyle Edmund: It isn't that long ago that Kyle Edmund had taken over the top British player on the ATP Tour, but injury has really pushed him back over the last couple of years. Limited time spent on the Tour means Kyle Edmund is not well outside the top 500 in the World Rankings and the next twelve months is going to be a challenging time for the recently turned 28 year old as he looks to rebuild.

Protected Ranking benefits will mean Kyle Edmund can enter some of the bigger tournaments and putting a few wins together will really see him rocket up the World Rankings and avoid having to completely 'start again'. However, Edmund will quickly have realised that the Tour has not stopped in his absence and a new group of talented players have deepened the ATP pool, which will contribute to the difficulty of getting his career back on track.

Two losses in opening matches in a couple of ATP events held in Adelaide will have given Kyle Edmund an indication of the kind of gap he has to bridge having been beaten by two players Ranked inside the top 30.

Kinder draws would certainly help Edmund as he looks to pick up the Ranking points while being able to use the Protected Ranking to enter the main Tour events, but that has not been the case in Melbourne as he prepares to face Jannik Sinner for a second time this month.

The Italian reached the Quarter Final at both the Australian Open and US Open last year and he was only beaten in an epic five setter by eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz at the latter event. The positives of the performance from that day will have Jannik Sinner enter this Grand Slam event with big expectations, even in the loaded top half of the draw which features the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal, the two Finalists from 2022.

Jannik Sinner will know that the serve has to be a little more reliable if he is going to become a Grand Slam Champion, but he is certainly progressing towards that. His return of serve can be very effective on the hard courts, as Kyle Edmund found out a couple of weeks ago, and I think Sinner is going to be able to exert enough pressure to break down a talented, but match rusty opponent.

Making 'easier' work of the early Rounds of a Grand Slam is another area in which Jannik Sinner can find improvement as he continues moving up the World Rankings and I do expect him to remain focused in this one. He can sometimes throw in a bad service game or two and that makes life more challenging, but Sinner dominated behind the serve against Edmund in Adelaide and he should be able to largely get on the front foot and dictate rallies in this one too.

This is a big spread, make no mistake about that, but I think Jannik Sinner has shown he has the kind of numbers on serve and return which can see him break down the Kyle Edmund game again, and come through relatively unscathed.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 14-16)

It is quite amazing how quickly time can fly- it feels like the 2022 NFL season only began yesterday, yet eighteen weeks later we have reached the PlayOffs.

Some of the favourites from pre-season have made their way into the PlayOffs as expected, but the NFL continues to show off the parity they are most proud of with a number of teams making the post-season that did not do so last season.

The Super Wild Card Round has been a lot of fun since its introduction and this season we even have a Monday Night Football PlayOff game for the first time. I am not sure that is going to be good news for the winner of the Tampa Bay-Dallas game with the winner most likely heading to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the rested Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round, but it is something that the winner will have to deal with if that is the outcome.

The Monday Night selection will be added to this thread on Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The NFC West has sent two teams to the PlayOffs and the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) will be given the opportunity to host this Super Wild Card Round game against the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) courtesy of being Divisional Winners. Despite the injuries, especially at the Quarter Back position, the 49ers have used the 'next man up' mantra to great effect and they are considered a real candidate to win the Super Bowl.

That is a long shot for the Seattle Seahawks who have overcome a run of five losses in six games to win their last two regular season games and back their way into the PlayOff. They needed a Green Bay Packers loss in Week 18 to do that and they edged out the Detroit Lions thanks to an early road win over the Lions giving Seattle the tie-breaker.

Recent performance levels as well as the fact that the Seahawks have lost both games to the San Francisco 49ers in the regular season makes Seattle a big road underdog in this opening PlayOff Game of the 2022 season. Spreads like this are hard to work out considering how well the underdog have performed in the recent past in the NFL PlayOffs, but the two losses to the 49ers underline the feeling we all have in that the Seahawks do not match up effectively against this Divisional rival.

That is an issue on both sides of the ball, while the decline in the Geno Smith level at Quarter Back has to be a major concern heading into the post-season. He did not play badly in the wins to close out the season, but the mistakes that have been evident throughout his starting career in the NFL have begun to show up again down the stretch, mistakes that Geno Smith had been firmly in control of earlier in the season.

Before last season, Super Wild Card underdogs had been on a really strong run, but those teams were just 1-5 against the spread in the 2021 PlayOffs. That does not bode well for the Seahawks who will try and run the ball against the 49ers Defensive Line to ease the pressure on Smith, who is also making his first PlayOff start, an unenviable position for a Quarter Back.

The same will be the case for Brock Purdy playing Quarter Back for the San Francisco 49ers and there is no doubt that the intensity of a post-season game is a level above what will have been faced in the regular season. However, even with that in mind, Brock Purdy has shown he can deal with the pressure of being a starter in the NFL and he is surrounded by players that can make the difference for him.

In all likelihood, the Seattle Offensive Line is not going to suddenly rip off big gains against the San Francisco Defensive Line considering they have not had much success in either regular season game. That is going to shift the pressure onto Geno Smith and the weather conditions expected in Santa Clara for game time is going to make the passing game that much more difficult to execute.

Geno Smith has talented Receivers, but the question is whether he will have a good enough grip of the football to throw down the field and whether he will get the time needed for the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to break open with the 49ers pass rush teeing off on the Quarter Back in third and long spots.

There have been one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exposed, but the conditions and the one-dimensional nature of the Seattle Offensive unit may may it difficult to exploit those. You cannot ignore this team averaged 10 points per game against the 49ers in the regular season and it is going to be tough for Smith and the team to produce much better against this elite Defensive team.

Throwing conditions won't be easier for Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are not a team looking for the big play, but simply asking the Quarter Back to get the ball into the hands of the skill players and let them do the work. Another huge advantage for Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers is that they are very much expected to establish the run and Christian McCaffrey should have another big game against this Seattle Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run all season.

Kyle Shanahan has shown he can find different ways to run the ball so I expect Deebo Samuel to also have his fair share of carries and all this means that Brock Purdy will be in front of the chains for much of the afternoon and not asked to carry the team. That means there is less pressure on this first-time starting Quarter Back compared with Geno Smith and Brock Purdy is not expected to be in situations where he can be forced into making mistakes.

Of course he will throw the ball at some point, but Purdy will be asked to make short throws into the likes of Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and those Receivers can pick up plenty of yards after the catch on their own.

Ultimately I simply don't think this is a positive match up for the Seahawks on either side of the ball and staying with the 49ers looks like it could be a step too far.

There is a theory that beating the same team three times in a single season is tough to do, but those teams have won fourteen of the twenty-three games in that situation. You also have to accept that Divisional match ups in the post-season have favoured the underdog since 2014 with a strong 8-2 record against the spread, but neither game between the Seahawks and 49ers has been close in the regular season and I am not anticipating this one to be much different.

Seattle have been struggling down the stretch and are 1-7 against the spread in the last eight games played, while they have not covered in their last five against their NFC West rivals.

The Seahawks also have to deal with a poor trend going against teams that have not had recent PlayOff experience when facing an opponent that made the post-season in the previous year.

And of course there is that known issue that first time PlayOff Quarter Backs have had when set as the underdog- those teams are 7-18-1 against the spread since 2006, while San Francisco are trying to extend a run for home favourites of at least 7 points who are 13-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

I simply don't think Brock Purdy will need to make pressurised throws too often and the 49ers can wear Seattle down at the line of scrimmage with a strong win to return to the Divisional Round of the post-season and hosting a game next weekend.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: A few months ago you would have gotten some long odds on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) winning the AFC South and securing a home game in the Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. Five wins in a row have not only pushed the Jaguars into the PlayOffs, but they will feel like they are in the right mindset to deal with the post-season having won a 'knock out' game in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans.

Winning the Division means hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) and I do think there is plenty of pressure on Head Coach Brandon Staley after deciding to play his starters for the full game in Week 18. In most circumstances it would not have been a decision that is being questioned, but the Chargers had been locked into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC before kick off and the injuries picked up by Mike Williams and Joey Bosa have had fans shaking their heads.

Losing in the Super Wild Card Round will thus be a major blow for the Chargers Head Coach, even though both Williams and Bosa are expected to suit up.

Los Angeles are the favourites even though they were blown out at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season. The long trip to the East Coast is far from ideal too and I think this Jaguars team have shown an improvement through the course of the season while being guided by a Super Bowl Winning Head Coach that will make them very dangerous.

Trevor Lawrence is growing into the Quarter Back many believed he would be when selected as the Number 1 Overall Pick, but the Jaguars cannot be as sloppy Offensively as they were last week. It didn't help that they were not able to run the ball as they have come to expect against the very tough Titans Defensive Line, but at least this week there are likely to be more holes up front for Travis Etienne to try and burst through.

Jacksonville are going to need the running game working with an improving Chargers Secondary looking healthier and playing well down the stretch. They can put some pressure on Trevor Lawrence when he steps back to throw if they can put the Jaguars behind the chains and that could lead to mistakes, which has been an issue for the Quarter Back who has thrown 8 Interceptions, but also had 9 Fumbles.

At home, the Jaguars will feel they can have some success even after the inconsistent performance on this side of the ball in the Week 18 win over the Titans.

However, Doug Pederson may be leaning on his Defensive unit to play up to the level produced in holding the Titans to 16 points last week. Since allowing 34 points in a home win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Jaguars have allowed a total of 22 points in three games, although it should be noted the struggling Quarter Backs they have faced in that time.

Justin Herbert is not struggling and he is surrounded by some talented Receiving options and a decent Running Back in Austin Ekeler.

It has not been easy to run the ball against the Jaguars Defensive Line and they restricted the impact that Ekeler was able to make in their blow out win on the road over the Chargers. The Titans did have some joy on the ground with Derrick Henry and Joshua Dobbs from the Quarter Back position, but the Chargers will be happy enough throwing the ball if they have to.

That was not the case for the Titans and there are some vulnerabilities in the Jacksonville Secondary with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer likely to have the edge over the Defensive Backs. Justin Herbert is confident of finding those behind an Offensive Line that has offered their Quarter Back a bit more time throwing the ball down the field.

With Austin Ekeler a solid safety blanket in the passing game, I think the Chargers will be confident of earning the win on the road, but this really feels like a close game.

With that in mind, the spread is much harder to work out at the number below a Field Goal amount of points and I think I could make a case for both teams. Two inexperienced Quarter Backs in PlayOff Football clouds things a bit more, but my narrowest of leans has to be with the home underdog finding a way to win this one outright.

Instead of the spread, I am going to look for the two teams to finish below the total line set for the game.

The Defensive units look to match up pretty well with the Offenses they are going to face and I do think it will be a closely fought game.

The under is actually 11-3 in the last fourteen Jacksonville home games and it is also 5-1 in the last six Los Angeles Chargers games. With the teams looking to establish the run, I do think the game could be shortened and it should be a lower scoring game than the layers may expect if turnovers are avoided to offer up short fields.

Whoever wins is likely to be a significant underdog next week in the Divisional Round, but this is an important game for the development of the franchise Quarter Back for both teams, although it may be a game dominated by the Defensive units.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has been a season of progress for the Miami Dolphins (9-8), but it is likely going to end with a 'one and done' post-season appearance. And for all of the positives, there is a huge question mark over the franchise and that is what to do with Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.

After an uneven time in the professional ranks, Mike McDaniel has really gotten something out of Tua Tagovailoa, but the big problem has been the durability of a player that is going to want a huge contract extension sooner rather than later. The concussions are bad luck, but also partly down to the mismanagement of the early one that was suffered by Tagovailoa, but it has ruled him out of the Super Wild Card Round and it is hard to know if he will be activated even if Miami are to cause a monumental upset on Sunday.

When Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, the Miami Dolphins have looked like they could have a team that will develop into one that can win the Super Bowl. That is why there is a serious question for the Miami management team in deciding how to move forward, although I expect the Dolphins to be linked with a major name veteran or two during this off-season (book Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as those names).

For now the concentration for the Dolphins is how they can do enough Offensively to keep up with the AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills (13-3) who missed out on the Bye Week into the Divisional Round having played one game fewer than the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think many associated with Buffalo will care too much about that after hearing the news that Damar Hamlin looks to be taking the right steps towards recovery and I do think that news is something that can give the whole team a boost in the post-season.

They are a massive favourite to win this game with the Miami Dolphins banged up and potentially having to play third string Quarter Back, Skylar Thompson, again. Teddy Bridgewater has a damaged finger on his throwing hand so even if he gets the start, you have to believe he is going to have a hard time getting the ball out to the likes of Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill and this game does have the potential of getting ugly.

Running the ball has been a way to get at the Buffalo Defensive unit, but once again Miami have picked up an injury at a bad time with Raheem Mostert likely to miss out. Jeff Wilson has had some success, but it was Mostert who ran the ball really well when these two Divisional rivals met last month and I think the Bills Defensive Line may choose to clamp down on the run and dare a banged up veteran or a rookie to beat them with their arm.

Miami's Offensive Line will offer up some time, but Skylar Thompson has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and this week is facing a Buffalo Secondary that has recovered some health. Damar Hamlin came in to replace Micah Hyde and the latter is not likely to play until the AFC Championship Game, if Buffalo get there, but I am not sure Miami have the tools to have a lot of success and this could be really tough if they fall a couple of scores behind.

There is every chance that could happen relatively quickly, even if Josh Allen has not played quite up to the level we all know he possesses at Quarter Back.

Unlike the Dolphins, Buffalo may not be able to lean on their running game as they have in recent weeks with the Miami Defensive Line continuing to clog up lanes and hitting Running Backs in the backfield for losses. Josh Allen is a dual-threat at Quarter Back and did have some big runs in the last game against Miami, and that element did allow the Bills to produce 150 yards on the ground in that narrow win in this Stadium so it could be down to Allen to open things up for his own passing game to thrive.

It will be another cold afternoon for these teams in Buffalo, but clearer conditions should give Buffalo's passing game a chance to shine.

Josh Allen did light up this Secondary in the win in December and I think he will be able to pick up from where he left off. The Miami Dolphins have played hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the absence of Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but there are too many weapons for Buffalo to exploit the problems that can be had in the passing game and I do think this will give Buffalo every opportunity to cover a mammoth spread.

It really would not be a massive surprise if Skylar Thompson throws an Interception or two to offer up short fields for Buffalo, which eventually leads to the blow out, although this spread is likely to be in play right into the Fourth Quarter.

Make no mistake about that with the number where it is and a backdoor cover could occur if the Bills have a big lead and decide to pull some of their starters. However, Wild Card home teams are a perfect 12-0 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 9.5 points and Buffalo can certainly pull away for a big win here.

Skylar Thompson would also be impacted by the trend that says first time PlayOff Quarter Backs are just 17-39-1 against the spread since 2004 when they are playing opposite an experienced PlayOff Quarter Back, while I expect a strong Defensive Head Coach like Sean McDermott to have one or two surprises for the rookie behind Center.

This is a big number, but Buffalo have all of the momentum and talent to cover... Blow out in my opinion.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Another rematch from a regular season meeting in December takes place in Minneapolis on Sunday in the Super Wild Card Round when home team Minnesota Vikings (13-4) host the New York Giants (9-7-1). This is not only a rematch between the teams, but they are meeting in the same venue and there is every chance this will be just as close as the regular season game.

The higher Seed is once again the favourite, but the spread is not as high as the first meeting and I think it is a massive shame we cannot get more than a Field Goal worth of points with the New York Giants again.

There is some pressure on the New York Quarter Back with Daniel Jones making his first PlayOff start, and I have mentioned the poor trend those first timers have when opposed by a Quarter Back that does have post-season experience.

However, the New York Giants should be able to move the ball pretty efficiently throughout the course of the Super Wild Card Round and the Giants are well rested having given the starters Week 18 to recover. The feeling is that will not have broken any rhythm that the Giants have picked up Offensively with Daniel Jones throwing to his patched up Receivers and having that week rest could be crucial.

The Vikings rested their own starters for much of the Week 18 win over the Chicago Bears too, but they have been a team that has struggled Defensively all season and I just don't know how that changes now.

A major problem has been an inability to stop the run and Saquon Barkley should have a strong performance for the Giants, while Daniel Jones can also move the ball with his legs. Establishing the run sets up everything that the New York Giants will want to do in this game and they have seen Jones find a solid enough connection with the Receivers on the roster that have stepped up as injuries have taken away some of the stronger players on the team.

Daniel Jones should be well protected and the Minnesota Secondary numbers down the stretch look better because teams felt they didn't need to throw against them as they have been gashed on the ground. This is a Secondary that can be exploited though and Jones should find himself having a few options whenever he gets into play-action calls coming through the headset.

I am quite critical of the Minnesota Vikings, but that is largely because their thirteen wins in the regular season seem vastly overinflated as to where they should have been.

However, the Giants have not been much better Defensively and I think the experience of Kirk Cousins coupled with the talent on the Offensive side of the ball should mean Minnesota have plenty of success when they have the ball in their hands too.

Dalvin Cook has remained one of the better Running Backs in the NFL and he should be able to put the Vikings in a position where they do not have to deal with third and long situations to move the chains. They may not have the same mobility out of the Quarter Back, but the Giants have struggled to clamp down on the run and Cook is capable of managing the workload and pushing ahead for the big gain at any time.

This is also very important for Kirk Cousins, who has not been as well protected by the Offensive Line as he would have liked and who would potentially be under significant pass rush pressure when the Vikings find themselves behind the chains. Avoiding mistakes is the key for Minnesota and allowing Cousins to use the play-action to slow down the pass rush and hit his Receivers down the field.

You do have to credit the Giants Secondary for the level at which they are performing, but closing down Justin Jefferson and this Receiving corps will not be easy. They should have some success if they can win at the line of scrimmage and I do think the Giants may have the slight edge in this game, which makes the points in their favour look appealing enough.

Backing Daniel Jones and the Giants means going against a very strong trend that would suggest the Minnesota Vikings are the right side, but I simply do not believe they are the better team and missing a push, at the worst, would be a disappointment.

These two teams both missed the PlayOffs last season and the home team in the Super Wild Card Round in that situation have gone 3-15 against the spread since 2006, which goes against the Vikings here.

Minnesota also closed the season on a 1-4 run against the spread and the New York Giants are 7-0 against the spread following a loss. With a rested team, I think the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings will both push one another, but this time I believe the Giants can earn revenge for the regular season defeat at this same Stadium.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Losing in Week 18 meant the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) were not able to force a coin-toss that would potentially have meant hosting this Super Wild Card Round game. Instead the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) secured home field for this big game, although teams who have lost their last regular season game and then facing the same opponent in the PlayOffs have tended to be very strong against the spread.

That is about as positive as you can really feel about the Ravens who have simply put too much pressure on their own Defensive unit in the absence of Lamar Jackson. A big contract decision has to be made by the Ravens and Jackson in the off-season, but for now the Quarter Back position is one that has not seen good enough play without Jackson to believe the Ravens can have a very deep post-season run.

Despite playing a number of back up players and a third string Quarter Back in Week 18, the Baltimore Ravens did show they can be competitive against the AFC North Champions. Tyler Huntley could be back this week for Baltimore to give them stronger play out of the Quarter Back position, but Snoop has not really been able to come close to the production you would expect from Lamar Jackson and it has seen the Ravens fail to score more than 17 points in any game since the end of November.

As I said in Week 18, it does feel like the Baltimore Ravens match up poorly with the Cincinnati Defensive unit and I am not sure they are going to be able to produce much better in this Super Wild Card Round game. Tyler Huntley will get some help from the running game and he should be able to make some plays on the ground himself, but the Bengals have been pretty good against the run in recent games and I expect they are going to dare Baltimore to beat them with the pass.

Baltimore will have some success on the ground, but they need Huntley to find something in the passing game, anything that may force the Cincinnati Bengals to think twice about loading the box. There are some issues in the Bengals Secondary and Anthony Brown highlighted that by throwing for almost 300 yards through the air in the Week 18 defeat, although turnovers effectively made it a poor performance.

Turnovers have been very important for the Bengals of late and I do think they can produce a couple more on the day to take control of this game.

And there is almost no doubt that Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offense are going to have the stronger consistency when it comes to moving the ball when they have it, although they cannot underestimate how good this Baltimore Defensive unit can be.

Last week would have shown the Bengals how difficult the starting Baltimore unit are going to make life for them and Joe Burrow will know he is likely going to have to put the team on his shoulders to win the game. The Cincinnati Offensive Line have not been consistent in the run game, even with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and they are not expected to get a lot of change from the Baltimore Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run effectively.

In Week 18 they limited the Bengals to just 55 yards on the ground and the Ravens have to feel they can make the home team a little one-dimensional in this one too. Those turnovers mentioned were the key for Cincinnati in their win over Baltimore last week, but a cleaner game will give the road team some opportunities as they look for the upset over the current AFC Champions.

With the team likely to be in obvious passing positions on the field, Joe Burrow will have to deal with a Baltimore pass rush as he attempts to move the ball against a tough Secondary.

Joe Burrow does have some strong Receiving options and those are likely to win some of their battles on the outside, but I think Baltimore's key Defensive players will step up and keep this one close by holding down the Bengals Offensive output.

A first time Quarter Back playing in the PlayOff is a trend against Baltimore, but I do like the way teams have bounced back from losing their last regular season game and facing the same opponent in the opening Round of the post-season.

Cincinnati have been very strong at home and they have positive trends that support them, but I think John Harbaugh will have a plan for this game that gives Baltimore a chance. They are still likely to come up short, but the Ravens should be stronger than last week and I think they make use of getting more than a Touchdown worth of points as the underdog in this Super Wild Card Round game.

The road team is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine between these AFC North Divisional rivals and I think the Baltimore Ravens can find enough plays to secure a cover.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The final Super Wild Card PlayOff game of the weekend will be played on Monday evening and the winner will know exactly what the Divisional Round holds for them before kick off. However, the focus has to be on winning and extending the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) become the only team to host a PlayOff game with a losing record this season against the Dallas Cowboys (12-5).

All season we have been waiting for the Buccaneers to find their rhythm in the 2022 season, but that has not happened.

There were some positive signs in the important Week 17 win over the Carolina Panthers and the Offensive Line could have a boost with a potentially returning Ryan Jensen at Center. He has been a huge miss for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay team all season, but Jensen looks to be trending towards a return and that will be big for the Buccaneers.

Tom Brady will need all of the support he can get from his Offensive Line as the Buccaneers look for a home upset and a visit to either Philadelphia or San Francisco. Improved play up front will also be important to try and get something consistent out of the rushing attack, an area where the Buccaneers have struggled all season.

Even if they are finding their feet in run blocking, the Buccaneers are facing a Dallas Defensive Line which has shown improvement in clamping down on the run. They finished the season holding teams to 3.6 yards per carry and this Tampa Bay team are not expected to get much more going even if the likes of Ryan Jensen are back.

Where Jensen and company can make a difference is giving Tom Brady enough time to try and hit his Receivers down the field. Earlier in the season the Dallas pass rush was playing with freedom and hitting the Quarter Back time and time again, but that has changed in recent weeks and Brady is also someone who will get the ball out of his hands quickly enough to negate the pressure he feels.

And the slowing of the pass rush has also meant the Dallas Secondary have begun to give up some significant passing plays, which should also be very encouraging to Brady and company. Of course you do have to wonder if you can really trust a Tampa Bay team that have seemingly underperformed most weeks, but the same criticism can be levelled at the Dallas Cowboys who have regularly fallen short when it comes to the post-season.

The Week 18 performance will be a concern for long-suffering Dallas fans and they will know they cannot afford to see the team make the kinds of mistakes that they did in the defeat to the Washington Commanders. Dak Prescott has had good moments, but continues to turn the ball over and that is not the way you can win in the post-season.

The Quarter Back may point to a lack of success in establishing the run as a contributory factor in his recent performances, but Dallas may feel they can get Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard back on track against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line. It is very important for Dallas to do that and avoid leaving Dak Prescott in third and long spots and those obvious passing situations and the line of scrimmage may be where this PlayOff game is either won or lost.

If the Cowboys can stay in front of the chains, the Tampa Bay Secondary is one that can be exploited and Dallas do have Receivers like CeeDee Lamb who can make plays for them down the field. That is so important for Dallas as they bid to win a PlayOff game and build some confidence and momentum in the post-season, but this feels like the kind of game where they will come up short.

Dallas have been able to bounce back from losses very well, but they are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games.

It has been a season long struggle for Tampa Bay to cover in games as they have tended to be over-rated by the oddsmakers, but Wild Card road favourites are now just 7-8-1 against the spread in the last sixteen games with that situation. That includes Los Angeles Chargers failing to cover on Saturday evening and I think Tampa Bay with the points is the play here.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars-Los Angeles Chargers Under 48.5 Total Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New York Giants + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)