We are down to the final four at the tournaments that have been played this week and at the same time the Qualifiers will be beginning for the four new events that are set to be played over the next several days.
I am still looking to round off this week with a positive run that can ensure a winning record and adding to the 2020 totals. That may finally be decided by how the Picks from the Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Saturday go. There are some good looking Semi Finals to be played through the course of the day, although I am going to have to add any selections from ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York to this thread once those markets are put together.
The other tournaments have managed to put some early markets together for their Semi Final matches and you can read the Picks below.
Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: For the third match in a row Pablo Carreno Busta needed a lot of time on the court to come through a three setter. The accumulated fatigue could be a potential issue for the Spaniard, but there has to be some confidence in Carreno Busta's play having saved Match Points on his way to beating Jannik Sinner on Friday.
That confidence can be built up by winning consecutive matches in a final set Tie Breaker, but Carreno Busta might have been able to win matches a little easier if he had not dropped the second set in every match played this week. Pablo Carreno Busta has also been saving a lot of Break Points so far in Rotterdam having faced twenty-three in the last two matches while creating just ten of his own.
The serve has been in decent nick throughout 2020 for Pablo Carreno Busta and he has won 66% of the points played behind serve in Rotterdam and has held 87% of the service games played. However there is a reason the results have not been as good as Carreno Busta would have wanted and that is largely down to the struggles he has had on the return of serve with breaks of serve in just 14% of return gams played so far this week.
It is going to be a big test for Pablo Carreno Busta on the return when facing Felix Auger Aliassime whose numbers in 2020 have been significantly better than the ones the Spaniard has been producing. The young player has spent a lot less time on court so far this week which may be a key difference on the day, while Auger Aliassime has some strong numbers behind him.
The Canadian has held 87% of service games played so far this week and he is winning 68% of service points played which should help Auger Aliassime try and stay on top of Pablo Carreno Busta. While those numbers are similar to Pablo Carreno Busta's, Felix Auger Aliassime has broken in 25% of return games played and that is where he can have a little more success than his opponent and thus get into a position to not only win the match, but also to cover the mark.
It has to be said that the return can sometimes be a little limited from Felix Auger Aliassime, but he should be the fresher player and has shown significantly better form so far this week. There is enough here to make me believe the younger player is worth getting behind here and that is what I will do.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Both of these Rotterdam Semi Finalists had to win a very tight opening set on a Tie Breaker and both will know the match could have easily begun in a very different way. Ultimately both Gael Monfils and Filip Krajinovic did win those Tie Breakers and then were deserved winners as they get set for the second week in a row.
Last week Gael Monfils beat Filip Krajinovic in the Montpellier Semi Final and he went on to win the title there and he is looking to defend his title here in Rotterdam too. The Frenchman's return has been huge for him so far this week and he has broken opponents regularly throughout the tournament and it might be the key difference between these two in this Semi Final.
It won't be easy for Monfils because Filip Krajinovic has been serving very well in the matches he has played here. He has held in 93% of service games played although that is a mark that is significantly better than where Krajinovic has been with his serve in the last three seasons.
Even this season Krajinovic has held 78% of the service games played on the hard courts so the feeling is that his mark will come back to his usual average at some point before the tournament is completed. Filip Krajinovic has returned well enough too as he has been able to free his arms thanks to the confidence he has earned from his serving, but the mark is some way below where Gael Monfils has been with his return game an I still think that gives the higher Ranked player a real advantage.
In their two previous hard court matches against one another, Filip Krajinovic has held 76% of the service games played compared with Gael Monfils' 87% mark. The match last week was fairly competitive, but Monfils was not really threatened on his own serve and there was a 10% difference between the two players in favour of Monfils when it came to percentage of points won behind the serve.
Neither player has been taxed in terms of the length of time spent on court and so I do expect to see the best of both of them. My edge has to be with Gael Monfils whose serve might be enough of a difference on the day to help the Frenchman win and cover.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 21-16, + 6.02 Units (74 Units Staked, + 8.14% Yield)
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Saturday, 15 February 2020
Friday, 14 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 14th)
A busy week is coming to a conclusion, but Friday remains a very busy day with twenty matches scheduled across the five tournaments as we get down to the Quarter Final Round at all of the events that are being played.
The quality of matches should be pretty good throughout the day when you think most players have the confidence of wins behind them and there is a good opportunity for big Ranking points to be picked up. The tournaments are largely looking quite open having seen some of the favourites already beaten, and that also makes things interesting with some competitive looking matches out there on Friday.
The Tennis Picks through Thursday have yet to be completed at the time of writing and some of the markets for the Quarter Final matches have yet to be put together. That means I may add a couple of selections on Friday when I will update the season totals too.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: The form that these two players have shown in their first two wins in Rotterdam suggests this is going to be a very good match between Gael Monfils and Daniel Evans. Both have been very deserving winners in the two wins they have put on the board, while Gael Monfils will have the additional confidence that comes from winning a title in Montpellier last week and being the defending Champion here in Rotterdam too.
That doesn't mean he is going to be able to breeze past opponents despite being a strong winner against Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. In this Quarter Final he has to deal with the hot serving that Daniel Evans has produced as he looks to set a new career best World Ranking at the end of the tournament.
The British player has held serve in 92% of service games played here in Rotterdam so far this week and he has won well over 70% of service points played which makes it very hard to put him under pressure. However Evans is now facing Gael Monfils who has broken in more than half of the return games played and who has regularly been a solid enough returner on the Tour with his athleticism meaning he can get more balls back in play than opponents may expect.
Gael Monfils will feel there is room for improvement behind the serve, and that is going to be tested by Evans in this match. This week has been a touch more difficult for Daniel Evans when it comes to converting breaks, but in general it is a strength of his game on the hard courts and he will believe he can frustrate his opponent into errors in what looks like a good match.
Their previous meeting was narrowly won by Gael Monfils when they met a little under three years ago in Dubai. Conditions indoors are a little different, but it is surroundings in which the Frenchman has played well and it may give him enough of an edge to come away with the win.
It is hard to imagine Daniel Evans maintaining his number on the serve that he has produced so far this week, and especially not against Gael Monfils returning the ball as he has been. That might be the difference between the players with the superior returning helping Monfils through to the Semi Final and I will look for him to do enough to cover this mark.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: With the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas out of the running, Andrey Rublev may just be the favourite to win another title in 2020. He had a strong first month of the season and the Russian has been as strong as anyone out there on the hard courts over the last twelve months, although he is perhaps still looking for a stand out win or two.
All the youngster wants to do is continue to show signs of improvement and his numbers to open 2020 have been very, very impressive. The serve has been a potent weapon for him so far and that has been the case in the two wins recorded this week in Rotterdam as Rublev has held every service game he has played.
More impressive is the fact that he has yet to face a break point and he rightly goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. Andrey Rublev has been winning 40% of return points and broken in 26% of return games on the hard courts in 2020, but he has improved both marks this week and his overall game looks in a perfect place.
He will be facing Filip Krajinovic who has also had a solid enough start to 2020, but the Serbian was a little fortunate to come through his Second Round match. I can't read too much into his First Round win over a local Wild Card who is Ranked at Number 172 in the World, although the win over Vasek Pospisil is more impressive considering the form of the Canadian.
In saying that I have mentioned that Krajinovic was a touch fortunate having saved eight of the nine break points faced in the Second Round. Filip Krajinovic only won five more points overall in that win over Pospisil, and his serve has simply not been as effective as the one that Andrey Rublev brings to the court.
They have split two previous meetings on the hard courts, but the more recent one saw Andrey Rublev crush Filip Krajinovic at the Davis Cup in November 2019. In that match Krajinovic struggled to get a handle on the Rublev serve, while his own was attacked with huge success for the Russian.
It might not be as comfortable as the Davis Cup win was, but I still think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Filip Krajinovic and he can cover the mark too.
Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Winning a title in Auckland means Ugo Humbert has made a strong start to 2020, but he has subsequently lost in First Round matches at the Australian Open and in Montpellier. Earning a bye through to the Second Round here where Humbert crushed Marcos Giron will at least be a boost for the Frenchman, but he is facing an opponent who has looked good so far this week.
Strong serving has been what we have come to expect from Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of years on the hard courts and it has been no different to begin the 2020 season. This week he has held in 88% of the service games he has played and Kecmanovic has been freed up on the return of serve to really make sure he wins matches with some relative comfort.
The return of serve has been an improving part of the Kecmanovic game, although it is going to be severely tested by Ugo Humbert if he continues to perform as he has been. Coming from the lefty stance already gives Humbert some edge and he has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2020.
It has allowed the Frenchman to have some freedom on the return of serve himself and it will be interesting to see which of these players can put their stamp on this match on that side of their game. In the overall numbers it is Miomir Kecmanovic who looks to have a slight advantage, but backing that up is the head to head between these two players.
They met twice in 2019, once on the grass and once on the hard courts, and it was Miomir Kecmanovic who won both matches. In the two matches combined, Kecmanovic held 94% of service games played, but it is the return numbers which have really impressed as he has restricted Ugo Humbert to holding just 63% of the service games he has played.
When they met on the hard courts seven months ago, Ugo Humbert was comfortably dismissed as he created a single break point and only won 50% of points behind serve and was broken four times.
There has been some strong performances from Ugo Humbert this year, but that head to head advantage can't be ignored. Miomir Kecmanovic has been playing well enough to back as the underdog and I think he has every chance of moving into the Semi Final if he can serve as he has been doing.
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: Any time you receive a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of a tournament it has to feel like you are playing with 'house money'. That is how Pedro Sousa must be approaching things in Buenos Aires this week as he reached the Quarter Final but all but one of his four matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100.
The other was against the World Number 99 and while Thiago Monteiro has yet to crack the top 70 in the World Rankings, he is a player who has always shown considerable form when the Golden Swing heads to South America. A title win in a Challenger event was followed by an early defeat in Cordoba last week, but Monteiro has two solid looking wins here already and confidence has to be high.
So far in 2020, Monteiro has won 68% of the service points played behind serve on the clay courts and he has won 40% against the opponent's serve. Those numbers have been steady in the two wins he has had in Buenos Aires, but here Thiago Monteiro is holding in 90% of service games played and broken in 30% of return games and that includes upsetting Borna Coric in the Second Round.
Pedro Sousa rode his luck at times in his win in the Second Round, and his numbers on the clay courts have long been relatively average which is underlined by his World Ranking being down at Number 145. He was beaten early at a Challenger event on the clay and failed to win a Qualifier in Cordoba last week which suggests he has been overachieving by reaching the Quarter Final here this week.
The Portuguese player has been a lot more efficient when it comes to having break point than when facing them in the two matches in the main draw here in Buenos Aires. Even then Sousa is holding just 75% of his service games and breaking in 29% of return games during this tournament and you do feel the break point numbers are going to drop backwards.
He has saved fourteen of the last seventeen break points faced, while taking five of the eighteen he has created. Pedro Sousa will have been given some confidence by his wins, but Thiago Monteiro is playing at a higher level and I think that will see the Brazilian prove to be too good on the day.
They did meet in Rio de Janeiro last year on the clay courts and it was Monteiro who won relatively easily despite being involved in a match where breaks came thick and fast. The service games being played by Thiago Monteiro this season suggests he won't be as weak behind the serve this week and he looks a decent back to cover the line being set for this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-12, + 0.82 Units (52 Units Staked + 1.58% Yield)
The quality of matches should be pretty good throughout the day when you think most players have the confidence of wins behind them and there is a good opportunity for big Ranking points to be picked up. The tournaments are largely looking quite open having seen some of the favourites already beaten, and that also makes things interesting with some competitive looking matches out there on Friday.
The Tennis Picks through Thursday have yet to be completed at the time of writing and some of the markets for the Quarter Final matches have yet to be put together. That means I may add a couple of selections on Friday when I will update the season totals too.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: The form that these two players have shown in their first two wins in Rotterdam suggests this is going to be a very good match between Gael Monfils and Daniel Evans. Both have been very deserving winners in the two wins they have put on the board, while Gael Monfils will have the additional confidence that comes from winning a title in Montpellier last week and being the defending Champion here in Rotterdam too.
That doesn't mean he is going to be able to breeze past opponents despite being a strong winner against Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. In this Quarter Final he has to deal with the hot serving that Daniel Evans has produced as he looks to set a new career best World Ranking at the end of the tournament.
The British player has held serve in 92% of service games played here in Rotterdam so far this week and he has won well over 70% of service points played which makes it very hard to put him under pressure. However Evans is now facing Gael Monfils who has broken in more than half of the return games played and who has regularly been a solid enough returner on the Tour with his athleticism meaning he can get more balls back in play than opponents may expect.
Gael Monfils will feel there is room for improvement behind the serve, and that is going to be tested by Evans in this match. This week has been a touch more difficult for Daniel Evans when it comes to converting breaks, but in general it is a strength of his game on the hard courts and he will believe he can frustrate his opponent into errors in what looks like a good match.
Their previous meeting was narrowly won by Gael Monfils when they met a little under three years ago in Dubai. Conditions indoors are a little different, but it is surroundings in which the Frenchman has played well and it may give him enough of an edge to come away with the win.
It is hard to imagine Daniel Evans maintaining his number on the serve that he has produced so far this week, and especially not against Gael Monfils returning the ball as he has been. That might be the difference between the players with the superior returning helping Monfils through to the Semi Final and I will look for him to do enough to cover this mark.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: With the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas out of the running, Andrey Rublev may just be the favourite to win another title in 2020. He had a strong first month of the season and the Russian has been as strong as anyone out there on the hard courts over the last twelve months, although he is perhaps still looking for a stand out win or two.
All the youngster wants to do is continue to show signs of improvement and his numbers to open 2020 have been very, very impressive. The serve has been a potent weapon for him so far and that has been the case in the two wins recorded this week in Rotterdam as Rublev has held every service game he has played.
More impressive is the fact that he has yet to face a break point and he rightly goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. Andrey Rublev has been winning 40% of return points and broken in 26% of return games on the hard courts in 2020, but he has improved both marks this week and his overall game looks in a perfect place.
He will be facing Filip Krajinovic who has also had a solid enough start to 2020, but the Serbian was a little fortunate to come through his Second Round match. I can't read too much into his First Round win over a local Wild Card who is Ranked at Number 172 in the World, although the win over Vasek Pospisil is more impressive considering the form of the Canadian.
In saying that I have mentioned that Krajinovic was a touch fortunate having saved eight of the nine break points faced in the Second Round. Filip Krajinovic only won five more points overall in that win over Pospisil, and his serve has simply not been as effective as the one that Andrey Rublev brings to the court.
They have split two previous meetings on the hard courts, but the more recent one saw Andrey Rublev crush Filip Krajinovic at the Davis Cup in November 2019. In that match Krajinovic struggled to get a handle on the Rublev serve, while his own was attacked with huge success for the Russian.
It might not be as comfortable as the Davis Cup win was, but I still think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Filip Krajinovic and he can cover the mark too.
Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Winning a title in Auckland means Ugo Humbert has made a strong start to 2020, but he has subsequently lost in First Round matches at the Australian Open and in Montpellier. Earning a bye through to the Second Round here where Humbert crushed Marcos Giron will at least be a boost for the Frenchman, but he is facing an opponent who has looked good so far this week.
Strong serving has been what we have come to expect from Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of years on the hard courts and it has been no different to begin the 2020 season. This week he has held in 88% of the service games he has played and Kecmanovic has been freed up on the return of serve to really make sure he wins matches with some relative comfort.
The return of serve has been an improving part of the Kecmanovic game, although it is going to be severely tested by Ugo Humbert if he continues to perform as he has been. Coming from the lefty stance already gives Humbert some edge and he has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2020.
It has allowed the Frenchman to have some freedom on the return of serve himself and it will be interesting to see which of these players can put their stamp on this match on that side of their game. In the overall numbers it is Miomir Kecmanovic who looks to have a slight advantage, but backing that up is the head to head between these two players.
They met twice in 2019, once on the grass and once on the hard courts, and it was Miomir Kecmanovic who won both matches. In the two matches combined, Kecmanovic held 94% of service games played, but it is the return numbers which have really impressed as he has restricted Ugo Humbert to holding just 63% of the service games he has played.
When they met on the hard courts seven months ago, Ugo Humbert was comfortably dismissed as he created a single break point and only won 50% of points behind serve and was broken four times.
There has been some strong performances from Ugo Humbert this year, but that head to head advantage can't be ignored. Miomir Kecmanovic has been playing well enough to back as the underdog and I think he has every chance of moving into the Semi Final if he can serve as he has been doing.
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: Any time you receive a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of a tournament it has to feel like you are playing with 'house money'. That is how Pedro Sousa must be approaching things in Buenos Aires this week as he reached the Quarter Final but all but one of his four matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100.
The other was against the World Number 99 and while Thiago Monteiro has yet to crack the top 70 in the World Rankings, he is a player who has always shown considerable form when the Golden Swing heads to South America. A title win in a Challenger event was followed by an early defeat in Cordoba last week, but Monteiro has two solid looking wins here already and confidence has to be high.
So far in 2020, Monteiro has won 68% of the service points played behind serve on the clay courts and he has won 40% against the opponent's serve. Those numbers have been steady in the two wins he has had in Buenos Aires, but here Thiago Monteiro is holding in 90% of service games played and broken in 30% of return games and that includes upsetting Borna Coric in the Second Round.
Pedro Sousa rode his luck at times in his win in the Second Round, and his numbers on the clay courts have long been relatively average which is underlined by his World Ranking being down at Number 145. He was beaten early at a Challenger event on the clay and failed to win a Qualifier in Cordoba last week which suggests he has been overachieving by reaching the Quarter Final here this week.
The Portuguese player has been a lot more efficient when it comes to having break point than when facing them in the two matches in the main draw here in Buenos Aires. Even then Sousa is holding just 75% of his service games and breaking in 29% of return games during this tournament and you do feel the break point numbers are going to drop backwards.
He has saved fourteen of the last seventeen break points faced, while taking five of the eighteen he has created. Pedro Sousa will have been given some confidence by his wins, but Thiago Monteiro is playing at a higher level and I think that will see the Brazilian prove to be too good on the day.
They did meet in Rio de Janeiro last year on the clay courts and it was Monteiro who won relatively easily despite being involved in a match where breaks came thick and fast. The service games being played by Thiago Monteiro this season suggests he won't be as weak behind the serve this week and he looks a decent back to cover the line being set for this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-12, + 0.82 Units (52 Units Staked + 1.58% Yield)
Thursday, 13 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 13th)
The last couple of days have been a touch frustrating as far as the Tennis Picks have been concerned and I am looking for a fightback on Thursday as the remaining Second Round matches are completed this week.
A strong Monday has been followed by disappointing Tuesday and a really poor Wednesday, but I am happy with the choices made and just needed a bit better fortunes to the selections. The worst Picks were probably from the WTA St Petersburg tournament- I should have looked past Johanna Konta until she shows she is back to full health- but largely I've been happy and a couple of moments here and there and it would have been a much better week.
I have turned around the last couple of weeks after slow starts so I am hoping this week is not going to be a reverse of those after the strong start followed by a couple of poorer days. There is still four days to go to complete the week, but I am looking for things to begin improving as soon as Thursday and put some momentum into the remainder of this week.
The remaining Second Round matches across five tournaments are set to be played on Thursday before we head into the Friday Quarter Final matches. There look to be a host of matches that are ticking the boxes for me and you can read those Tennis Picks below.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It was a very difficult match for David Goffin on Wednesday as he came from a set down to overcome home favourite Robin Haase in the First Round in Rotterdam. He had to spend virtually two and a half hours on the court to win the match and off a long week in Montpellier it may have put David Goffin in a difficult position.
Ultimately he did win and I am not sure any professional player should be exhausted after playing one long match. It is a minor factor that has to be considered especially when he is facing an opponent who has moved into the Second Round of the tournament without hitting a ball.
Jannik Sinner has plenty of eyes on his game as the 18 year old Italian looks like a star in the making on the ATP Tour. He benefited from a walkover in the First Round, but there is no doubting the kind of talent he has having produced a strong year on the hard courts in 2019.
The majority of those were at a lower level than the main ATP Tour where Sinner will still be learning. He is just 1-4 on the hard courts in 2020 and he has just had a few issues behind the serve which is going to be examined by someone like Goffin who has broken in 33% of return games played on the hard courts prior to this tournament and who managed to create ten break points in his win over Robin Haase.
It is the Jannik Sinner return which could keep him competitive as he not facing a big server in this match, but the youngster admits he is still learning and he is just 1-4 on the hard courts when playing top 50 Ranked opponents. David Goffin is someone who will give Sinner the chance to build his rhythm, but the slow start to 2020 compared with the Belgian's should give the higher Ranked player the edge.
I have every belief that Jannick Sinner is going to be a star on the ATP Tour in the years ahead, but at this moment David Goffin is perhaps a little too consistent for him. There will be moments where we see the Italian showcasing some of his talent, but I think his serve has been a little vulnerable to open 2020 and David Goffin may edge two sets here.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: These two players are both 22 years old and both are on their way to career best World Rankings if they can win this big Second Round match. Out of the two it is Andrey Rublev who had more expectation on his shoulders and he is moving ever closer to cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time.
A 12-1 start to 2020 is helping the young Russian, and what is an ever improving serve has been the key to the successes he is having. It was the serve that dominated Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round and it has allowed Andrey Rublev to take one or two chances when it comes to the return of serve.
The return has been pretty steady the last couple of years on this surface and Rublev looks to have picked up from where he has left off in 2019. While those numbers have been similar in 2018, 2019 and from the small sample of 2020 matches, the serve has improve in each passing year and it has given Andrey Rublev the platform from which to dominate opponents.
Alexander Bublik was also a good First Round winner, but he did not face someone as strong as Basilashvili. The Kazakhstani has enjoyed winning records on the hard courts in each of the last four seasons, but the numbers have been largely average and he is just 4-4 on the hard courts this year.
His serve has to be respected, but Bublik has held in 80% of the games played on the hard courts. It is the reason he has not been able to win more matches because the return remains a limited part of his game and it would be a huge upset if he can pull off the win on Thursday.
Andrey Rublev has won the last two hard court matches between these players and both of those matches were played in 2019. While holding serve in 85% of service games played, Rublev has restricted Alexander Bublik to 69% in those matches and that huge edge should have produced two more comfortable wins than the Russian enjoyed.
In both matches he did produce a 6-1 set though and I think an ever improving Andrey Rublev can get into a position to win this match and cover the big line at odds against. He looks to be serving very big and the Rublev return game is decent enough on the hard courts to believe he can secure a good looking win in the Second Round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: To take the next step in his career I think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the first to admit that he needs to improve his return game on the hard courts. The big serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but it will be improvements made to the return of serve that will give the Greek superstar a chance to challenge the very best players and perhaps even start adding some Grand Slam titles to his collection.
On his day Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown he can compete with anybody on the ATP Tour, and his win at the ATP Finals shows the mentality of a Champion. However it was a poor Australian Open following a poor showing at the ATP Cup and Tsitsipas was in trouble in the First Round here in Rotterdam having dropped the opening set to Hubert Hurkacz and falling a break down in the second set.
His recovery was impressive, particularly the way he blunted what is a big serve and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to pick up confidence from the six breaks of serve converted. The return numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive from Stefanos Tsitsipas, but that was a rare day in which he excelled and it backed up what has largely been impressive serving.
The challenge to deal with a strong serve will be in front of Tsitsipas again on Thursday when he takes on Aljaz Bedene who upset Benoit Paire in the First Round. Aljaz Bedene is not that far below his career best World Ranking, but he has been an average hard court player and it is something of a surprise that he chose to miss the clay court swing in South America to play here instead.
Over the last twelve months Bedene has had better hard court numbers than clay court numbers though and his serve has been held in 86% of games played on the hard courts in 2020. Like his opponent, the return has held the Slovenian back and I do think whoever can get a bit more out of this side of their game will win.
Aljaz Bedene finished with a 5-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents last season and that has to be respected. However it is the return aspect of his game that he has really struggled and the serve is simply not as effective as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas brings to the court.
Those service numbers have taken a significant dent when Bedene has faced top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I think that will be the case here. You have to respect a player that could be dangerous with the chance of Stefanos Tsitsipas recovering breaks of serve a touch difficult with his own limitations on the return, but overall he should have the better of the match.
This is an intriguing line for the match, but the game handicap is one game less than where I would have placed it and I will look for Stefanos Tsitsipas to put another strong win in the books.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Go back fifteen months and Kyle Edmund was close to finishing the 2018 season and was up at a career best Number 14 in the World Rankings. Over the last twelve months the British player has struggled for consistency though and that has seen him drop back outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, although the tournament in New York offers Edmund a good chance to get some momentum back behind him.
He is only 3-3 on the hard courts in 2020 having won his First Round match here in straight sets, but Kyle Edmund has to also acknowledge he has been playing at a higher level than many of the other players in the draw here. One of those is Dominik Koepfer who is the World Number 94, although he might be playing with a bit more confidence having secured a sixth win of the 2020 season when beating last year's Finalist Brayden Schnur in the First Round.
Having a lefty serve makes Koepfer a little more awkward too, although I don't think Kyle Edmund will mind having his big forehand naturally going into the Koepfer backhand. Playing first strike tennis might be key for both players, and that is where Kyle Edmund could have the edge with his experience playing at a higher level.
As good as Dominik Koepfer's hard court numbers look on first glance, it is important to note that he spends a large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit. When he has stepped up to this level he has found his serve is not quite as effective and it is an area Kyle Edmund has to expect to have another advantage.
Confidence can be a funny thing in tennis though and my one doubt comes from the fact that Edmund does not have a lot of tournaments where he has put back to back wins together. He did do that last month in Auckland though and Edmund has beaten all three opponents he has played this season Ranked outside the top 50 and he has produced some very strong serving and returning in those matches.
His numbers are significantly stronger when taking on those players he is expected to beat over the last twelve months on the hard courts compared with his overall numbers. Kyle Edmund also is going up against Dominik Koepfer who is 4-15 in matches on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and the German has only held 75% of service games and found breaks in 14% of return games in those matches.
As I have said, confidence can lead to better than expected performances, but it would be a bigger surprise than the layers think if Kyle Edmund loses, at least as far as I am concerned. Backing the Brit to reach a second Quarter Final and cover the number is the selection.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-9, - 0.66 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.73% Yield)
A strong Monday has been followed by disappointing Tuesday and a really poor Wednesday, but I am happy with the choices made and just needed a bit better fortunes to the selections. The worst Picks were probably from the WTA St Petersburg tournament- I should have looked past Johanna Konta until she shows she is back to full health- but largely I've been happy and a couple of moments here and there and it would have been a much better week.
I have turned around the last couple of weeks after slow starts so I am hoping this week is not going to be a reverse of those after the strong start followed by a couple of poorer days. There is still four days to go to complete the week, but I am looking for things to begin improving as soon as Thursday and put some momentum into the remainder of this week.
The remaining Second Round matches across five tournaments are set to be played on Thursday before we head into the Friday Quarter Final matches. There look to be a host of matches that are ticking the boxes for me and you can read those Tennis Picks below.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It was a very difficult match for David Goffin on Wednesday as he came from a set down to overcome home favourite Robin Haase in the First Round in Rotterdam. He had to spend virtually two and a half hours on the court to win the match and off a long week in Montpellier it may have put David Goffin in a difficult position.
Ultimately he did win and I am not sure any professional player should be exhausted after playing one long match. It is a minor factor that has to be considered especially when he is facing an opponent who has moved into the Second Round of the tournament without hitting a ball.
Jannik Sinner has plenty of eyes on his game as the 18 year old Italian looks like a star in the making on the ATP Tour. He benefited from a walkover in the First Round, but there is no doubting the kind of talent he has having produced a strong year on the hard courts in 2019.
The majority of those were at a lower level than the main ATP Tour where Sinner will still be learning. He is just 1-4 on the hard courts in 2020 and he has just had a few issues behind the serve which is going to be examined by someone like Goffin who has broken in 33% of return games played on the hard courts prior to this tournament and who managed to create ten break points in his win over Robin Haase.
It is the Jannik Sinner return which could keep him competitive as he not facing a big server in this match, but the youngster admits he is still learning and he is just 1-4 on the hard courts when playing top 50 Ranked opponents. David Goffin is someone who will give Sinner the chance to build his rhythm, but the slow start to 2020 compared with the Belgian's should give the higher Ranked player the edge.
I have every belief that Jannick Sinner is going to be a star on the ATP Tour in the years ahead, but at this moment David Goffin is perhaps a little too consistent for him. There will be moments where we see the Italian showcasing some of his talent, but I think his serve has been a little vulnerable to open 2020 and David Goffin may edge two sets here.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: These two players are both 22 years old and both are on their way to career best World Rankings if they can win this big Second Round match. Out of the two it is Andrey Rublev who had more expectation on his shoulders and he is moving ever closer to cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time.
A 12-1 start to 2020 is helping the young Russian, and what is an ever improving serve has been the key to the successes he is having. It was the serve that dominated Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round and it has allowed Andrey Rublev to take one or two chances when it comes to the return of serve.
The return has been pretty steady the last couple of years on this surface and Rublev looks to have picked up from where he has left off in 2019. While those numbers have been similar in 2018, 2019 and from the small sample of 2020 matches, the serve has improve in each passing year and it has given Andrey Rublev the platform from which to dominate opponents.
Alexander Bublik was also a good First Round winner, but he did not face someone as strong as Basilashvili. The Kazakhstani has enjoyed winning records on the hard courts in each of the last four seasons, but the numbers have been largely average and he is just 4-4 on the hard courts this year.
His serve has to be respected, but Bublik has held in 80% of the games played on the hard courts. It is the reason he has not been able to win more matches because the return remains a limited part of his game and it would be a huge upset if he can pull off the win on Thursday.
Andrey Rublev has won the last two hard court matches between these players and both of those matches were played in 2019. While holding serve in 85% of service games played, Rublev has restricted Alexander Bublik to 69% in those matches and that huge edge should have produced two more comfortable wins than the Russian enjoyed.
In both matches he did produce a 6-1 set though and I think an ever improving Andrey Rublev can get into a position to win this match and cover the big line at odds against. He looks to be serving very big and the Rublev return game is decent enough on the hard courts to believe he can secure a good looking win in the Second Round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: To take the next step in his career I think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the first to admit that he needs to improve his return game on the hard courts. The big serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but it will be improvements made to the return of serve that will give the Greek superstar a chance to challenge the very best players and perhaps even start adding some Grand Slam titles to his collection.
On his day Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown he can compete with anybody on the ATP Tour, and his win at the ATP Finals shows the mentality of a Champion. However it was a poor Australian Open following a poor showing at the ATP Cup and Tsitsipas was in trouble in the First Round here in Rotterdam having dropped the opening set to Hubert Hurkacz and falling a break down in the second set.
His recovery was impressive, particularly the way he blunted what is a big serve and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to pick up confidence from the six breaks of serve converted. The return numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive from Stefanos Tsitsipas, but that was a rare day in which he excelled and it backed up what has largely been impressive serving.
The challenge to deal with a strong serve will be in front of Tsitsipas again on Thursday when he takes on Aljaz Bedene who upset Benoit Paire in the First Round. Aljaz Bedene is not that far below his career best World Ranking, but he has been an average hard court player and it is something of a surprise that he chose to miss the clay court swing in South America to play here instead.
Over the last twelve months Bedene has had better hard court numbers than clay court numbers though and his serve has been held in 86% of games played on the hard courts in 2020. Like his opponent, the return has held the Slovenian back and I do think whoever can get a bit more out of this side of their game will win.
Aljaz Bedene finished with a 5-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents last season and that has to be respected. However it is the return aspect of his game that he has really struggled and the serve is simply not as effective as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas brings to the court.
Those service numbers have taken a significant dent when Bedene has faced top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I think that will be the case here. You have to respect a player that could be dangerous with the chance of Stefanos Tsitsipas recovering breaks of serve a touch difficult with his own limitations on the return, but overall he should have the better of the match.
This is an intriguing line for the match, but the game handicap is one game less than where I would have placed it and I will look for Stefanos Tsitsipas to put another strong win in the books.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Go back fifteen months and Kyle Edmund was close to finishing the 2018 season and was up at a career best Number 14 in the World Rankings. Over the last twelve months the British player has struggled for consistency though and that has seen him drop back outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, although the tournament in New York offers Edmund a good chance to get some momentum back behind him.
He is only 3-3 on the hard courts in 2020 having won his First Round match here in straight sets, but Kyle Edmund has to also acknowledge he has been playing at a higher level than many of the other players in the draw here. One of those is Dominik Koepfer who is the World Number 94, although he might be playing with a bit more confidence having secured a sixth win of the 2020 season when beating last year's Finalist Brayden Schnur in the First Round.
Having a lefty serve makes Koepfer a little more awkward too, although I don't think Kyle Edmund will mind having his big forehand naturally going into the Koepfer backhand. Playing first strike tennis might be key for both players, and that is where Kyle Edmund could have the edge with his experience playing at a higher level.
As good as Dominik Koepfer's hard court numbers look on first glance, it is important to note that he spends a large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit. When he has stepped up to this level he has found his serve is not quite as effective and it is an area Kyle Edmund has to expect to have another advantage.
Confidence can be a funny thing in tennis though and my one doubt comes from the fact that Edmund does not have a lot of tournaments where he has put back to back wins together. He did do that last month in Auckland though and Edmund has beaten all three opponents he has played this season Ranked outside the top 50 and he has produced some very strong serving and returning in those matches.
His numbers are significantly stronger when taking on those players he is expected to beat over the last twelve months on the hard courts compared with his overall numbers. Kyle Edmund also is going up against Dominik Koepfer who is 4-15 in matches on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and the German has only held 75% of service games and found breaks in 14% of return games in those matches.
As I have said, confidence can lead to better than expected performances, but it would be a bigger surprise than the layers think if Kyle Edmund loses, at least as far as I am concerned. Backing the Brit to reach a second Quarter Final and cover the number is the selection.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-9, - 0.66 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.73% Yield)
Wednesday, 12 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 12th)
It could have been a fabulous first two days for the Tennis Picks this week, but I am happy enough taking two good days instead.
With five tournaments being played it is no surprise that there are as many tennis matches being scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday as we have seen so far this week. That will continue up until the weekend with the Second Round and Quarter Final matches to be played before Saturday and I am hoping to have a stronger day on Wednesday to recover from the slightly inconsistent Tuesday.
There were no selections from the late matches to be played on Tuesday so the week update can be placed in this thread. A few of the Second Round match markets have yet to be properly put together so there my be additional Picks placed in this thread on Wednesday, but you will see them below.
As we reach the middle of the week, my selections can be seen below.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: Injury and loss of form has seen Robin Haase hurtle down the World Rankings and his Number 167 means he was not able to compete at the Australian Open last month. He was not able to earn a main draw spot with that Ranking slipping well out of the top 100 and the Dutchman decided he would not play in Melbourne, but instead try and boost his Ranking by taking in lower level tournaments.
Robin Haase did reach the Final of a Challenger event prior to the Australian Open beginning, but could not complete the match in a losing effort. Subsequently he was beaten in the Pune Qualifiers last week and Haase might just be grateful for his spot in the main draw of this ATP 500 event.
The Dutchman has been given a Wild Card from one of the few tournaments held in his home country, but the field is a tough one and it is no surprise that Robin Haase has been given a difficult opener against David Goffin. The latter also had something of a down season in 2019 compared with other years, but Goffin reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last week and he already holds a win over Rafael Nadal on the hard courts in 2020.
There is some real room for improvement in the service games David Goffin has been producing, but his return game has been in good shape and helped him to a 7-3 start. His serve could benefit from going up against an average returner like Robin Haase who has broken in just 18% of the return games played in 2020 despite playing at a lower level than the main ATP Tour.
Robin Haase will look for his serve to get him out of a jam and at least put the pressure on David Goffin in this one, but he is just 1-6 against the Belgian and it has been a difficult match up for him. David Goffin has won all four previous matches between them on the hard courts and he has managed to break serve in 34% of return games played compared with Robin Haase's 18% number.
It was a long week for David Goffin in Montpellier, but putting wins together can build confidence of players. He is not someone that you can comfortably back to cover a line like the one in front of him, but Goffin has matched up well with Robin Haase and he should be the more confident player if things don't go smoothly which can see him offer more fight than the home player.
Even the 6-11 record Robin Haase has in Rotterdam is not inspiring a lot of confidence in him here. That record slips to 3-10 when playing top 100 Ranked players in Rotterdam and I will look for David Goffin to try and get a second straight week off to a good, strong start.
Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: For the sixteenth season in a row Gael Monfils reached the Final of an ATP tournament and he managed to win the title in Montpellier for the third time in his career. He will now be defending his Ranking points in Rotterdam where he won the title in 2019 having reached the Semi Final the week before in Sofia so I do think motivation won't be a big problem for the Frenchman who has been given an extra day to prepare for this First Round match.
He is a strong favourite to beat Joao Sousa who is now down at Number 68 in the World Rankings and at 30 years old it does feel like the Portuguese player is on the slide in his career.
The start to 2020 has been very difficult for Sousa who has lost all three matches played and much of the problem has been the struggles behind serve. It has put the pressure on Sousa when it comes to fighting back from behind and the last thirteen months it has been a struggle for him on the return when it comes to hard court matches.
In those thirteen months Joao Sousa is holding in 80% of the service games played on the hard courts, but he has broken in just 13% return games. Those numbers have been worse in the only three matches played this season and Joao Sousa has struggled in his previous four matches against Gael Monfils having broken in just 14% of return games played while allowing the Frenchman to find breaks in 34% of the return games he has played.
Gael Monfils has been playing some inspired tennis to open the 2020 season culminating in the title win last week. His serve has been a huge weapon and I think that can set him up for a decent win in the First Round, especially as Monfils should have a few chances to get into the Sousa service games and find break point opportunities coming his way.
There is some pressure on Monfils to try and have a strong run here to prevent dropping some significant Ranking points, but he should be able to get off to a good start. I will look for Gael Monfils to find enough breaks of serve to cover this big looking line and get his tournament moving.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Oceane Dodin: A knee injury cut short Johanna Konta's 2019 season after the US Open and she has opened 2020 with two defeats in tournaments played. She returns for the first time on the Singles court since losing at the Australian Open in the First Round, but a Doubles win suggests Johanna Konta might be ready to compete a little more heartily now.
She is going to benefit from facing a Qualifier in the Second Round at the WTA event in St Petersburg, although it does mean Oceane Dodin is a little more battle hardened. The Frenchwoman reached her career best World Ranking of Number 49 back in 2017, but the last three years have been difficult for Oceane Dodin who is well out of the top 100 at the moment.
A couple of top 100 wins in the tournament here will have given Dodin a boost, and she did have a strong 29-10 record on the hard courts in 2019. However it has to be noted that the majority of those matches were played below the main WTA level and it has been difficult for her to find the consistency needed to compete amongst the top players.
Oceane Dodin has some elements to her game which makes her dangerous- the first serve can be a big weapon when she is feeling her game and it has been a key to her successes so far this week. Freeing up her arm on the return, Dodin has played very well and it is going to need a good effort from Johanna Konta to overcome this opponent.
In the last couple of seasons Johanna Konta has been a very solid hard court player and her serve is also a very important part of her game. We have yet to see that working through the first couple of matches played in 2020 as Konta is recovering match sharpness, but she is facing a relatively weak returner in Oceane Dodin and that should give the British player a real chance to feel her way into the match.
Johanna Konta is not exactly a great returner herself, but she does enough on that side of her game and she is stronger than Oceane Dodin. It might be the player that can dominate the opponent's second serve that can come out on top in this Second Round match and I do think Johanna Konta's win in the Doubles draw will help her mentally.
Her two losses have come against players significantly more consistent than Oceane Dodin has been and the latter is just 2-10 on the hard courts when playing an opponent who is Ranked in the top 50. This match will be closer because of the Johanna Konta lack of tennis over the last several months, but I think the British player can secure a first win of 2020 and she can cover this line on the way to a place in the Quarter Final.
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Fiona Ferro: A Lucky Loser spot was given to Fiona Ferro and she has taken full advantage by upsetting Caroline Garcia in the First Round. The challenge gets a lot tougher in the Second Round when Ferro faces Elena Rybakina and she has to make sure she is in a good place both emotionally and physically to compete against the home player.
Fiona Ferro is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings which is something of a surprise when you see that she has a losing record on the hard courts in main WTA tournaments. The Frenchwoman has better numbers on the serve from her small sample of matches in 2020 compared with the last couple of years, but Ferro won't have played too many players in the kind of form Elena Rybakina has been in.
The 20 year old Russian is at her career best Ranking mark and she has opened 2020 with a 12-2 record and both losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Ashleigh Barty are against solid opponents. Elena Rybakina has already reached two Finals on the hard courts in 2020 and she has a title already under her belt with signs that she is going to continue her improvement and crack through the top 20 in the World Rankings sooner rather than later.
Her serve has been very important to her successes and it means Rybakina is not being asked to dominate on return to win matches. The pressure being put on her getting through her service games is helping to crack opponents and I do think that could be a key to the outcome of this match.
I do think Fiona Ferro will test Rybakina with her own game looking in decent nick to open 2020 and having some confidence from her win over Carolina Garcia. However I think eventually it is going to be Rybakina who breaks through and she can get on top of a big number here.
Both players will believe they can serve out of trouble, but it is Elena Rybakina who looks to have the stronger shot and that can help her come through with a good win.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jozef Kovalik - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.08 Units (24 Units Staked, + 25.33% Yield)
With five tournaments being played it is no surprise that there are as many tennis matches being scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday as we have seen so far this week. That will continue up until the weekend with the Second Round and Quarter Final matches to be played before Saturday and I am hoping to have a stronger day on Wednesday to recover from the slightly inconsistent Tuesday.
There were no selections from the late matches to be played on Tuesday so the week update can be placed in this thread. A few of the Second Round match markets have yet to be properly put together so there my be additional Picks placed in this thread on Wednesday, but you will see them below.
As we reach the middle of the week, my selections can be seen below.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: Injury and loss of form has seen Robin Haase hurtle down the World Rankings and his Number 167 means he was not able to compete at the Australian Open last month. He was not able to earn a main draw spot with that Ranking slipping well out of the top 100 and the Dutchman decided he would not play in Melbourne, but instead try and boost his Ranking by taking in lower level tournaments.
Robin Haase did reach the Final of a Challenger event prior to the Australian Open beginning, but could not complete the match in a losing effort. Subsequently he was beaten in the Pune Qualifiers last week and Haase might just be grateful for his spot in the main draw of this ATP 500 event.
The Dutchman has been given a Wild Card from one of the few tournaments held in his home country, but the field is a tough one and it is no surprise that Robin Haase has been given a difficult opener against David Goffin. The latter also had something of a down season in 2019 compared with other years, but Goffin reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last week and he already holds a win over Rafael Nadal on the hard courts in 2020.
There is some real room for improvement in the service games David Goffin has been producing, but his return game has been in good shape and helped him to a 7-3 start. His serve could benefit from going up against an average returner like Robin Haase who has broken in just 18% of the return games played in 2020 despite playing at a lower level than the main ATP Tour.
Robin Haase will look for his serve to get him out of a jam and at least put the pressure on David Goffin in this one, but he is just 1-6 against the Belgian and it has been a difficult match up for him. David Goffin has won all four previous matches between them on the hard courts and he has managed to break serve in 34% of return games played compared with Robin Haase's 18% number.
It was a long week for David Goffin in Montpellier, but putting wins together can build confidence of players. He is not someone that you can comfortably back to cover a line like the one in front of him, but Goffin has matched up well with Robin Haase and he should be the more confident player if things don't go smoothly which can see him offer more fight than the home player.
Even the 6-11 record Robin Haase has in Rotterdam is not inspiring a lot of confidence in him here. That record slips to 3-10 when playing top 100 Ranked players in Rotterdam and I will look for David Goffin to try and get a second straight week off to a good, strong start.
Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: For the sixteenth season in a row Gael Monfils reached the Final of an ATP tournament and he managed to win the title in Montpellier for the third time in his career. He will now be defending his Ranking points in Rotterdam where he won the title in 2019 having reached the Semi Final the week before in Sofia so I do think motivation won't be a big problem for the Frenchman who has been given an extra day to prepare for this First Round match.
He is a strong favourite to beat Joao Sousa who is now down at Number 68 in the World Rankings and at 30 years old it does feel like the Portuguese player is on the slide in his career.
The start to 2020 has been very difficult for Sousa who has lost all three matches played and much of the problem has been the struggles behind serve. It has put the pressure on Sousa when it comes to fighting back from behind and the last thirteen months it has been a struggle for him on the return when it comes to hard court matches.
In those thirteen months Joao Sousa is holding in 80% of the service games played on the hard courts, but he has broken in just 13% return games. Those numbers have been worse in the only three matches played this season and Joao Sousa has struggled in his previous four matches against Gael Monfils having broken in just 14% of return games played while allowing the Frenchman to find breaks in 34% of the return games he has played.
Gael Monfils has been playing some inspired tennis to open the 2020 season culminating in the title win last week. His serve has been a huge weapon and I think that can set him up for a decent win in the First Round, especially as Monfils should have a few chances to get into the Sousa service games and find break point opportunities coming his way.
There is some pressure on Monfils to try and have a strong run here to prevent dropping some significant Ranking points, but he should be able to get off to a good start. I will look for Gael Monfils to find enough breaks of serve to cover this big looking line and get his tournament moving.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Oceane Dodin: A knee injury cut short Johanna Konta's 2019 season after the US Open and she has opened 2020 with two defeats in tournaments played. She returns for the first time on the Singles court since losing at the Australian Open in the First Round, but a Doubles win suggests Johanna Konta might be ready to compete a little more heartily now.
She is going to benefit from facing a Qualifier in the Second Round at the WTA event in St Petersburg, although it does mean Oceane Dodin is a little more battle hardened. The Frenchwoman reached her career best World Ranking of Number 49 back in 2017, but the last three years have been difficult for Oceane Dodin who is well out of the top 100 at the moment.
A couple of top 100 wins in the tournament here will have given Dodin a boost, and she did have a strong 29-10 record on the hard courts in 2019. However it has to be noted that the majority of those matches were played below the main WTA level and it has been difficult for her to find the consistency needed to compete amongst the top players.
Oceane Dodin has some elements to her game which makes her dangerous- the first serve can be a big weapon when she is feeling her game and it has been a key to her successes so far this week. Freeing up her arm on the return, Dodin has played very well and it is going to need a good effort from Johanna Konta to overcome this opponent.
In the last couple of seasons Johanna Konta has been a very solid hard court player and her serve is also a very important part of her game. We have yet to see that working through the first couple of matches played in 2020 as Konta is recovering match sharpness, but she is facing a relatively weak returner in Oceane Dodin and that should give the British player a real chance to feel her way into the match.
Johanna Konta is not exactly a great returner herself, but she does enough on that side of her game and she is stronger than Oceane Dodin. It might be the player that can dominate the opponent's second serve that can come out on top in this Second Round match and I do think Johanna Konta's win in the Doubles draw will help her mentally.
Her two losses have come against players significantly more consistent than Oceane Dodin has been and the latter is just 2-10 on the hard courts when playing an opponent who is Ranked in the top 50. This match will be closer because of the Johanna Konta lack of tennis over the last several months, but I think the British player can secure a first win of 2020 and she can cover this line on the way to a place in the Quarter Final.
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Fiona Ferro: A Lucky Loser spot was given to Fiona Ferro and she has taken full advantage by upsetting Caroline Garcia in the First Round. The challenge gets a lot tougher in the Second Round when Ferro faces Elena Rybakina and she has to make sure she is in a good place both emotionally and physically to compete against the home player.
Fiona Ferro is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings which is something of a surprise when you see that she has a losing record on the hard courts in main WTA tournaments. The Frenchwoman has better numbers on the serve from her small sample of matches in 2020 compared with the last couple of years, but Ferro won't have played too many players in the kind of form Elena Rybakina has been in.
The 20 year old Russian is at her career best Ranking mark and she has opened 2020 with a 12-2 record and both losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Ashleigh Barty are against solid opponents. Elena Rybakina has already reached two Finals on the hard courts in 2020 and she has a title already under her belt with signs that she is going to continue her improvement and crack through the top 20 in the World Rankings sooner rather than later.
Her serve has been very important to her successes and it means Rybakina is not being asked to dominate on return to win matches. The pressure being put on her getting through her service games is helping to crack opponents and I do think that could be a key to the outcome of this match.
I do think Fiona Ferro will test Rybakina with her own game looking in decent nick to open 2020 and having some confidence from her win over Carolina Garcia. However I think eventually it is going to be Rybakina who breaks through and she can get on top of a big number here.
Both players will believe they can serve out of trouble, but it is Elena Rybakina who looks to have the stronger shot and that can help her come through with a good win.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jozef Kovalik - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.08 Units (24 Units Staked, + 25.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 11 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 11th)
There are a lot of First Round matches scheduled for Tuesday at the five tournaments being played this week as those events really begin to get going.
In this thread I am going to place the selections from the Tuesday matches, but I will have to update the totals from the Monday matches as soon as the late ones from New York have been completed.
It is likely to be the case for the majority of the week with the tournaments in North and South America scheduling some late starts, but at least I can place the full Tuesday selections in this thread having had the order of play from all five events already being released.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Winning back to back tournaments in January followed by a run through to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open has helped Andrey Rublev reach a career best Number 15 in the World Rankings. At 22 years old the Russian is not expecting this to be the peak of his career though as he continues to show improvement on the Tour and that is especially the case on the hard courts.
This is a big tournament in Rotterdam this week so there are no easy matches from the off and that is proven by Rublev being paired with Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round. The Georgian is still inside the top thirty in the World Rankings and was as high as Number 16 just last year, although it has been a more difficult start to the 2020 season for him than it has for Andrey Rublev.
Nikoloz Basilashvili was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and he is just 2-3 on the hard courts to open 2020. He has finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface, but Basilashvili has always produced average numbers which suggests there isn't much margin for error to prevent him from hitting a really poor run.
Draws will make a difference, but this looks to be a very difficult one for Basilashvili who was beaten by Andrey Rublev when these players last met back in August. Nikoloz Basilashvili was 2-0 in the head to head before losing to the Russian in Cincinnati, and that result also means they are now 1-1 on the hard courts against each other, although Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve.
Both might have ended up with similar percentages when it comes to the break of serve on the hard courts, but Rublev has won more return points and I think he is the superior returner. In their matches against each other on the hard courts, Rublev has broken in 20% of return games played compared with Basilashvili's 17% mark.
It might not look a lot, but it can make all the difference and the early season form certainly suggests Andrey Rublev's move up the World Rankings has yet to come to an end. The Russian has been winning a vastly higher percentage of service points compared with Basilashvili to open the 2020 season and he has also been stronger on the return which will have me backing him to cover the number in this one.
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitipas over 22.5 games: This is another First Round match in Rotterdam which underlines the status of the tournament as an ATP 500 event. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas are inside the top thirty in the World Rankings, although both are also returning to competitive tennis for the first time since disappointing Australian Open showings.
Both Hurkacz at 22 years old and Tsitsipas at 21 years old are hoping to be part of the 'Next Gen' group of players that are hoping to challenge the Big Three that have long dominated the ATP Tour. However the Polish player was beaten in the Second Round and Stefanos Tsitsipas was unable to defend the Semi Final points he earned from the tournament twelve months earlier as he was defeated in the Third Round.
That makes this a very important tournament for the two players who will open the evening session in Rotterdam and it is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has the edge having won four of their previous five matches since turning professional. All of those have been on the hard courts, but the last two have been split and Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have won both of those.
In actual fact the last three have all gone the distance between these players and I don't think it can be ruled out that this match will go the same way. Stefanos Tsitipas has held 90% of his service games played in the last three matches between these players while Hubert Hurkacz has held 87% of his own service games and both players have won over 70% of the points played behind serve which underlines how tough it can be to earn the breaks of serve against each other.
The serve is a huge weapon for both of these players, and, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has a slight advantage on that front, it is Hubert Hurkacz that has the slightly better return numbers. It is no surprise that matches have been as competitive as they have been between these players because neither is a really strong returner and they can serve their way through games to keep themselves in with a chance of winning.
On an indoor hard court I would think Hurkacz and Tsitsipas are able to get through service games efficiently, although the courts here in Rotterdam might not be playing as fast as some others on the Tour. There have been a lot of breaks in the early matches played in Rotterdam, but this is a match up that looks like it could produce a relatively long match.
The last three have all gone that way and I think there is every chance this one will too and so backing the players to combine for more than the total games line set looks to be the play.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-1, + 7.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58.33% Yield)
In this thread I am going to place the selections from the Tuesday matches, but I will have to update the totals from the Monday matches as soon as the late ones from New York have been completed.
It is likely to be the case for the majority of the week with the tournaments in North and South America scheduling some late starts, but at least I can place the full Tuesday selections in this thread having had the order of play from all five events already being released.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Winning back to back tournaments in January followed by a run through to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open has helped Andrey Rublev reach a career best Number 15 in the World Rankings. At 22 years old the Russian is not expecting this to be the peak of his career though as he continues to show improvement on the Tour and that is especially the case on the hard courts.
This is a big tournament in Rotterdam this week so there are no easy matches from the off and that is proven by Rublev being paired with Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round. The Georgian is still inside the top thirty in the World Rankings and was as high as Number 16 just last year, although it has been a more difficult start to the 2020 season for him than it has for Andrey Rublev.
Nikoloz Basilashvili was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and he is just 2-3 on the hard courts to open 2020. He has finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface, but Basilashvili has always produced average numbers which suggests there isn't much margin for error to prevent him from hitting a really poor run.
Draws will make a difference, but this looks to be a very difficult one for Basilashvili who was beaten by Andrey Rublev when these players last met back in August. Nikoloz Basilashvili was 2-0 in the head to head before losing to the Russian in Cincinnati, and that result also means they are now 1-1 on the hard courts against each other, although Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve.
Both might have ended up with similar percentages when it comes to the break of serve on the hard courts, but Rublev has won more return points and I think he is the superior returner. In their matches against each other on the hard courts, Rublev has broken in 20% of return games played compared with Basilashvili's 17% mark.
It might not look a lot, but it can make all the difference and the early season form certainly suggests Andrey Rublev's move up the World Rankings has yet to come to an end. The Russian has been winning a vastly higher percentage of service points compared with Basilashvili to open the 2020 season and he has also been stronger on the return which will have me backing him to cover the number in this one.
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitipas over 22.5 games: This is another First Round match in Rotterdam which underlines the status of the tournament as an ATP 500 event. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas are inside the top thirty in the World Rankings, although both are also returning to competitive tennis for the first time since disappointing Australian Open showings.
Both Hurkacz at 22 years old and Tsitsipas at 21 years old are hoping to be part of the 'Next Gen' group of players that are hoping to challenge the Big Three that have long dominated the ATP Tour. However the Polish player was beaten in the Second Round and Stefanos Tsitsipas was unable to defend the Semi Final points he earned from the tournament twelve months earlier as he was defeated in the Third Round.
That makes this a very important tournament for the two players who will open the evening session in Rotterdam and it is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has the edge having won four of their previous five matches since turning professional. All of those have been on the hard courts, but the last two have been split and Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have won both of those.
In actual fact the last three have all gone the distance between these players and I don't think it can be ruled out that this match will go the same way. Stefanos Tsitipas has held 90% of his service games played in the last three matches between these players while Hubert Hurkacz has held 87% of his own service games and both players have won over 70% of the points played behind serve which underlines how tough it can be to earn the breaks of serve against each other.
The serve is a huge weapon for both of these players, and, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has a slight advantage on that front, it is Hubert Hurkacz that has the slightly better return numbers. It is no surprise that matches have been as competitive as they have been between these players because neither is a really strong returner and they can serve their way through games to keep themselves in with a chance of winning.
On an indoor hard court I would think Hurkacz and Tsitsipas are able to get through service games efficiently, although the courts here in Rotterdam might not be playing as fast as some others on the Tour. There have been a lot of breaks in the early matches played in Rotterdam, but this is a match up that looks like it could produce a relatively long match.
The last three have all gone that way and I think there is every chance this one will too and so backing the players to combine for more than the total games line set looks to be the play.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-1, + 7.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58.33% Yield)
Monday, 10 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 10th)
Much like the Australian Open, the first half of the latest set of tournaments proved to be very difficult for the Tennis Picks, but things were much better at the conclusion of the events being played in Cordoba, Montpellier and Pune.
A strong end to the week added some more profit to the start of the 2020 season and that can only be a good thing to have three weeks of Tennis Picks and ending with a profit each time.
It is a new game beginning on Monday with five tournaments running this week from Asia, through to Europe and onto North and South America. At this time of the season I do have to factor in travel time for players on the Tour and how they are scheduled to play, especially early on in tournaments when jet-lag is perhaps a real issue.
For most I think the sensible decisions will have been made in terms of tournament selection- the majority of players involved in Cordoba are likely to move on to Buenos Aires for the latest stop on the South American Golden Swing. The two tournaments being run by the WTA this week are not too far away from the Middle East where back to back big events are played in Dubai and Doha, although some of the players involved have been playing Fed Cup this past weekend and may need to adjust to the stops in Hua Hin and St Petersburg.
This week we also have the first ATP 500 event of the season in Rotterdam which has regularly brought together some top names from the Tour and the only event that really looks out of place is the relatively new New York Open. Only four players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings are due to play in New York this week and the majority of that field will likely head to Delray Beach next week so it makes sense for those involved to try and pick up some important Ranking points from what looks a pretty wide open field.
In this thread I will add the Tennis Picks from the Monday First Round matches that will be scheduled at all of the events being played. Usually this is one of the quieter days as many tournaments will carry Qualification matches over before really getting their main draw matches going on Tuesday.
I have also updated the season totals below following the completion of the tournaments played last week.
With events being played across four continents, some Picks will have to be added once the market has been formulated for the matches as was the case last week in Cordoba.
Let's hope for another positive week to keep the solid start to 2020 going and back up the 2018 and 2019 season profits.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a long time since Pablo Carreno Busta would have decided to take in a hard court tournament over clay court events being played at the same time, but that is the case in February. Instead of heading down to South America for their 'Golden Swing' leading into an ATP 500 event later this month, the Spaniard is out in Rotterdam having been beaten early in Montpellier last week.
Overall the hard court numbers over the last twelve months have been decent from Carreno Busta on this surface and actually stronger than the numbers he had produced on the hard courts. However it has to be said for the majority of his career he has been little more than a better than average player on the hard courts and so it remains a surprise that he would play in Europe rather than South America.
In saying that Pablo Carreno Busta is going to need to improve his return game if he is going to make it worth his while playing in indoor hard court tournaments. So far in 2020 it has been the return which has let the Spaniard down, but he might be able to have a little more joy when facing Frenchman Adrian Mannarino who has opened 2020 with a 1-4 record and was also beaten early in Montpellier last week.
Adrian Mannarino has a lefty serve which is always going to make him a little awkward for other players to deal with. Ultimately it is not as strong a serve as he would like though and it is a part of his game which can be attacked even when someone has been out of form on the return of serve as much as Pablo Carreno Busta has.
His return can be a strong part of his game though and I do think Mannarino will cause problems against the Pablo Carreno serve. Much is going to depend on which one of these players can get more out of what has been the stronger part of their game so far in 2020, although you have to believe there is more room for improvement for Carreno Busta on his twelve month numbers on the hard courts.
I do expect to see a close match, but my lean is towards Pablo Carreno Busta finding a way to have the better of the contest. Three sets being needed would not be a massive surprise, but Carreno Busta can still find a cover as the slight favourite going into this First Round match and I will look for him to do that.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Winning one Qualifier has earned Marton Fucsovics his place in the main draw in Rotterdam this week as he continues to move back towards his career best World Ranking which was achieved eleven months ago. Earning a spot in the main draw has also continued a strong beginning to the 2020 season for Fucsovics who reached the Australian Open Fourth Round last month.
He will need to keep that going if he is going to upset Roberto Bautista Agut who has also made a very strong start to 2020. Unlike Marton Fucsovics, Bautista Agut may actually feel like he missed an opportunity to have a much better Australian Open than his Third Round exit turned out, but overall he has also looked like he has come into the season in fine form.
The Spaniard has played really well in the first month of the season, although you do have to be a little wary when a player has had a couple of weeks away from the Tour. That should not be a major issue for Bautista Agut considering Marton Fucsovics has only played the one match since his defeat to Roger Federer in Melbourne two weeks ago.
Marton Fucsovics has made a strong start to 2020, but his numbers have not been as strong as the results may indicate. He has been very good at taking the break point chances when they have come their way compared with 2019 and that is shown by a very minor increase in points won against serve leading to a lot more breaks of serve than it did last season.
Over the last twelve months Marton Fucsovics has been winning 60% of points behind serve and 40% on the return of serve which are fairly average numbers on the hard courts. I would expect someone like Roberto Bautista Agut to take advantage especially as his serve has tended to be a lot stronger than the one the Hungarian brings to the table.
The Spaniard has also been the more consistent return player on the hard courts and I expect that will show up on Monday in this First Round match. It could be a good looking match, but Roberto Bautista Agut looks like he could be the stronger player on the day and I will look for him to come through with a cover of this line.
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Vitalia Diatchenko: The Fed Cup was played this past weekend which meant the WTA Tour had a short break between the end of the Australian Open and the start of the events this week. Both events being played this week have put together some solid fields and this one in St Petersburg will have a number of local favourite performing.
One of those is Vitalia Diatchenko who came through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw. She is heading back towards a career best World Ranking, but Diatchenko will also know there is a big step up from beating two players Ranked outside the top 100 and now having to compete with a player on the brink of cracking the top 20.
Maria Sakkari is perhaps better than her numbers may indicate and she has reached a career best Number 21 in the World Rankings having made the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. I still can't ignore the fact that Sakkari has some pretty average hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, but the small sample from 2020 has suggested she could be improving.
The return game does need improving if the Greek player is going to beat the best players consistently and perhaps win some major titles, but her serve is decent and gives Maria Sakkari a chance. She has finished with a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 and 2019 which is a real issue, but the seven matches played in 2020 have seen slight improvement in the percentage of points won on both the first and second serve.
That is going to be key for her to stay in front of Vitalia Diatchenko who has struggled to protect her serve when it comes to main Tour events on the hard courts. The Russian has a 4-24 record on the hard courts when playing top 100 Ranked opponents and she has been beaten in thirteen straight matches in that situation.
These two players have met twice before on the hard courts and it is Maria Sakkari who has won both matches including in Adelaide last month. The Greek player dominated on serve that day and only a failure to take her chances on the break points made the match a little closer than it actually was.
Maria Sakkari should have the majority of chances in this one and I think she will be able to come through with a cover in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Giron - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2020: + 19.30 Units (197 Units Staked, + 9.80% Yield)
A strong end to the week added some more profit to the start of the 2020 season and that can only be a good thing to have three weeks of Tennis Picks and ending with a profit each time.
It is a new game beginning on Monday with five tournaments running this week from Asia, through to Europe and onto North and South America. At this time of the season I do have to factor in travel time for players on the Tour and how they are scheduled to play, especially early on in tournaments when jet-lag is perhaps a real issue.
For most I think the sensible decisions will have been made in terms of tournament selection- the majority of players involved in Cordoba are likely to move on to Buenos Aires for the latest stop on the South American Golden Swing. The two tournaments being run by the WTA this week are not too far away from the Middle East where back to back big events are played in Dubai and Doha, although some of the players involved have been playing Fed Cup this past weekend and may need to adjust to the stops in Hua Hin and St Petersburg.
This week we also have the first ATP 500 event of the season in Rotterdam which has regularly brought together some top names from the Tour and the only event that really looks out of place is the relatively new New York Open. Only four players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings are due to play in New York this week and the majority of that field will likely head to Delray Beach next week so it makes sense for those involved to try and pick up some important Ranking points from what looks a pretty wide open field.
In this thread I will add the Tennis Picks from the Monday First Round matches that will be scheduled at all of the events being played. Usually this is one of the quieter days as many tournaments will carry Qualification matches over before really getting their main draw matches going on Tuesday.
I have also updated the season totals below following the completion of the tournaments played last week.
With events being played across four continents, some Picks will have to be added once the market has been formulated for the matches as was the case last week in Cordoba.
Let's hope for another positive week to keep the solid start to 2020 going and back up the 2018 and 2019 season profits.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a long time since Pablo Carreno Busta would have decided to take in a hard court tournament over clay court events being played at the same time, but that is the case in February. Instead of heading down to South America for their 'Golden Swing' leading into an ATP 500 event later this month, the Spaniard is out in Rotterdam having been beaten early in Montpellier last week.
Overall the hard court numbers over the last twelve months have been decent from Carreno Busta on this surface and actually stronger than the numbers he had produced on the hard courts. However it has to be said for the majority of his career he has been little more than a better than average player on the hard courts and so it remains a surprise that he would play in Europe rather than South America.
In saying that Pablo Carreno Busta is going to need to improve his return game if he is going to make it worth his while playing in indoor hard court tournaments. So far in 2020 it has been the return which has let the Spaniard down, but he might be able to have a little more joy when facing Frenchman Adrian Mannarino who has opened 2020 with a 1-4 record and was also beaten early in Montpellier last week.
Adrian Mannarino has a lefty serve which is always going to make him a little awkward for other players to deal with. Ultimately it is not as strong a serve as he would like though and it is a part of his game which can be attacked even when someone has been out of form on the return of serve as much as Pablo Carreno Busta has.
His return can be a strong part of his game though and I do think Mannarino will cause problems against the Pablo Carreno serve. Much is going to depend on which one of these players can get more out of what has been the stronger part of their game so far in 2020, although you have to believe there is more room for improvement for Carreno Busta on his twelve month numbers on the hard courts.
I do expect to see a close match, but my lean is towards Pablo Carreno Busta finding a way to have the better of the contest. Three sets being needed would not be a massive surprise, but Carreno Busta can still find a cover as the slight favourite going into this First Round match and I will look for him to do that.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Winning one Qualifier has earned Marton Fucsovics his place in the main draw in Rotterdam this week as he continues to move back towards his career best World Ranking which was achieved eleven months ago. Earning a spot in the main draw has also continued a strong beginning to the 2020 season for Fucsovics who reached the Australian Open Fourth Round last month.
He will need to keep that going if he is going to upset Roberto Bautista Agut who has also made a very strong start to 2020. Unlike Marton Fucsovics, Bautista Agut may actually feel like he missed an opportunity to have a much better Australian Open than his Third Round exit turned out, but overall he has also looked like he has come into the season in fine form.
The Spaniard has played really well in the first month of the season, although you do have to be a little wary when a player has had a couple of weeks away from the Tour. That should not be a major issue for Bautista Agut considering Marton Fucsovics has only played the one match since his defeat to Roger Federer in Melbourne two weeks ago.
Marton Fucsovics has made a strong start to 2020, but his numbers have not been as strong as the results may indicate. He has been very good at taking the break point chances when they have come their way compared with 2019 and that is shown by a very minor increase in points won against serve leading to a lot more breaks of serve than it did last season.
Over the last twelve months Marton Fucsovics has been winning 60% of points behind serve and 40% on the return of serve which are fairly average numbers on the hard courts. I would expect someone like Roberto Bautista Agut to take advantage especially as his serve has tended to be a lot stronger than the one the Hungarian brings to the table.
The Spaniard has also been the more consistent return player on the hard courts and I expect that will show up on Monday in this First Round match. It could be a good looking match, but Roberto Bautista Agut looks like he could be the stronger player on the day and I will look for him to come through with a cover of this line.
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Vitalia Diatchenko: The Fed Cup was played this past weekend which meant the WTA Tour had a short break between the end of the Australian Open and the start of the events this week. Both events being played this week have put together some solid fields and this one in St Petersburg will have a number of local favourite performing.
One of those is Vitalia Diatchenko who came through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw. She is heading back towards a career best World Ranking, but Diatchenko will also know there is a big step up from beating two players Ranked outside the top 100 and now having to compete with a player on the brink of cracking the top 20.
Maria Sakkari is perhaps better than her numbers may indicate and she has reached a career best Number 21 in the World Rankings having made the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. I still can't ignore the fact that Sakkari has some pretty average hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, but the small sample from 2020 has suggested she could be improving.
The return game does need improving if the Greek player is going to beat the best players consistently and perhaps win some major titles, but her serve is decent and gives Maria Sakkari a chance. She has finished with a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 and 2019 which is a real issue, but the seven matches played in 2020 have seen slight improvement in the percentage of points won on both the first and second serve.
That is going to be key for her to stay in front of Vitalia Diatchenko who has struggled to protect her serve when it comes to main Tour events on the hard courts. The Russian has a 4-24 record on the hard courts when playing top 100 Ranked opponents and she has been beaten in thirteen straight matches in that situation.
These two players have met twice before on the hard courts and it is Maria Sakkari who has won both matches including in Adelaide last month. The Greek player dominated on serve that day and only a failure to take her chances on the break points made the match a little closer than it actually was.
Maria Sakkari should have the majority of chances in this one and I think she will be able to come through with a cover in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Giron - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2020: + 19.30 Units (197 Units Staked, + 9.80% Yield)
Saturday, 8 February 2020
Boxing Picks 2020- Kell Brook vs Mark DeLuca (February 8th)
This is the first Boxing Picks being made in the 2020 season as I try and just readjust the sights on the way the selections are being made in the upcoming year.
I have ended in profit for the last couple of years, but the win-loss ratio needs improving to really start piling up the numbers. That is the key for the upcoming year, although Boxing has proven to be a sport which offers some very nice prices on outcomes once you look beyond the simple outright markets where you do tend to get some very heavy favourites week to week.
There are going to be some big fights in the year ahead and the biggest may be the potential two bouts Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will be competing in. The first of those is definitely scheduled for this month and the outcome by decide whether we need to see another later in the year, while the Heavyweights under the Matchroom banner are all going to be in action before the midway point of the 2020 year.
A couple of those potential fights are intriguing, but I think some of the biggest bouts that can be put together come from the lower weights and hopefully 2020 is going to be the year we get to see those.
On Saturday it is the return of Kell Brook having been out of the ring for fourteen months, while Gary Russell Jr insists he will increase his activity in 2020 as he comes out in February with plenty of time to schedule another bout in this calendar year.
The cards in Sheffield and Allentown are not that deep, but it is the start of the Boxing Picks for 2020 and hopefully a positive start to come.
I have ended in profit for the last couple of years, but the win-loss ratio needs improving to really start piling up the numbers. That is the key for the upcoming year, although Boxing has proven to be a sport which offers some very nice prices on outcomes once you look beyond the simple outright markets where you do tend to get some very heavy favourites week to week.
There are going to be some big fights in the year ahead and the biggest may be the potential two bouts Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will be competing in. The first of those is definitely scheduled for this month and the outcome by decide whether we need to see another later in the year, while the Heavyweights under the Matchroom banner are all going to be in action before the midway point of the 2020 year.
A couple of those potential fights are intriguing, but I think some of the biggest bouts that can be put together come from the lower weights and hopefully 2020 is going to be the year we get to see those.
On Saturday it is the return of Kell Brook having been out of the ring for fourteen months, while Gary Russell Jr insists he will increase his activity in 2020 as he comes out in February with plenty of time to schedule another bout in this calendar year.
The cards in Sheffield and Allentown are not that deep, but it is the start of the Boxing Picks for 2020 and hopefully a positive start to come.
David Allen vs Dorian Darch
A short lived retirement is over for David Allen who returns from his disappointing defeat to David Price back in July.
Once again the White Rhino is looking to put some momentum behind his career, although I am not convinced he should continue fighting after hearing his comments after the defeat to Price.
However it is up to Allen and if he thinks he is ready to come back and compete at a certain level I am not so concerned. I don't want to see him in with opponents who completely overmatch him again and he should be focusing on trying to pick up the British Title (as long as Daniel Dubois isn't Champion) and then call time on his career.
His comeback opponent looks a perfect one as Dorian Darch has long been nothing more than a journeyman. The Welshman has lost six in a row and he has been stopped in all of those with none of those bouts seeing out the Second Round.
It would be a surprise if this one is any different even though Allen is not really known as a big puncher. Very few of his fights have been stopped early, but I am not sure Darch has much left these days and if Allen can put together a couple of big punches he should be very comfortable on the day.
This has the feel of a comeback fight for David Allen and backing him to win in either the first two Rounds is an odds against shout I am happy to back.
Kell Brook vs Mark DeLuca
He looks fit and healthy, but there are still some real questions that Kell Brook is going to have to answer on Saturday in what might be the last time he fights in Sheffield.
Fourteen months have passed since Brook was last seen in the ring as he struggled to beat Michael Zerafa- that win didn't look so bad when Zerafa went on and beat Jeff Horn in August last year, although the latter has since gained some revenge in a Decision win.
Ring rust has to be a concern, but Kell Brook is back in the Ingle gym and he looks like he has put in the hard graft.
This is a big step up for American Mark DeLuca who has a decent 24-1 record, but with nothing standing out on his resume. From largely domestic level DeLuca is heading to Sheffield to take on a former World Champion and I am not happy when I see some of the body language he has displayed in the last week of the fight.
The final face to face is not always a great indicator of how a fighter is feeling, but DeLuca breaking eye contact and wanting to move away from Brook is not a good look no matter how much you feel that is going to be a factor.
Kell Brook does know he has to make a statement and I do think the potential ring rust could be a concern. The fight is likely going to see Brook come out pretty fast and I do think we will learn much about DeLuca very early on and how much he is going to be willing to take in this one.
The Michael Zerafa performance does raise some concerns, but I think Brook will come out ready to make a big time statement.
This should be a chance for him to do that against an opponent who is not half as good as Zerafa. Mark DeLuca has a big chance to announce himself on the world scene, but I am not convince he believes he can do that and backing Kell Brook to win in the first half of this bout.
MY PICKS: David Allen to Win Round One or Two @ 2.14 Bet Victor (2 Units)- Dutch him winning in Round One at 3.75 and Round Two at 5.00 with Victor.
Kell Brook to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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