We have almost reached the halfway mark of the 2018 NFL season but the bigger story over the next few days is going to be the trade deadline with teams looking more active than they ever have before.
The Oakland Raiders look to be trading anything and everything that isn't nailed down and there are going to be some awkward moments for Derek Carr before the deadline passes next week.
Amari Cooper was the big move Oakland made this week as they somehow managed to persuade the Dallas Cowboys to give up a First Round Pick in the 2019 Draft for the Wide Receiver. To say Dallas have perhaps given up too much is an understatement and I am not sure that is going to the move that puts the Cowboys over the line to make the Play Offs.
It looks like the New York Giants have joined that party with the likes of Eli Apple and Damon Harrison both leaving for New Orleans and Detroit respectively after the Giants went down to another loss on Monday Night Football.
I have no doubt the Giants are regretting holding onto Eli Manning through this season and not looking to upgrade the Quarter Back play and this looks another lost season for them.
The Le'Veon Bel drama has moved through another week as he does everything possible to avoid being traded from the Pittsburgh Steelers with his contract hold out moving through the Steelers Bye Week.
And we have also heard the likes of Denver will also be involved in trade talks in the next few days.
Week 8 will see the final game played in London in the 2018 season and each game is becoming more important as we begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Some Divisions look to be more one-sided than others and there are a couple of Divisions that make me wonder if they should really be producing any Play Off team. However all of that could change in the weeks ahead as we begin to find teams picking up their momentum to take into January.
There are some big games to come in Week 8 and the Picks can be seen below.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: Thursday Night Football comes from Houston in Week 8 as my Miami Dolphins visit the Texans in a game that could have serious Play Off implications.
It was not something I was envisioning back at the start of the 2018 NFL season with Miami surpassing all expectations to 4-3, but the fast start has slowed down and the best the Dolphins can hope for is a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs. Even that feels a long shot for Miami whose fan base may have been hoping for a high Draft Pick rather than another middling season, but players and Head Coaches don't worry about anything other than job security for themselves.
The Dolphins will need to try and win this game through various injuries as they are missing key Receivers. The starting Quarter Back, Ryan Tannehill, is also out and that means Brock Osweiler will return to Houston after playing one forgettable season for the Texans.
Osweiler may feel more comfortable with Adam Gase helping him along and he has not played badly for Miami in his starts in relief of Tannehill. However Osweiler is not a long-term option for Miami and he is going to find it very difficult to move the chains without key Receivers Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills out of the line up.
Going up against the Houston Texans Defensive unit is going to be very tough for Osweiler who won't have many friends here. The Offensive Line has not really offered the protection that Osweiler would have wanted and this is a Texans team who have begun to use the pressure they have generated up front to force turnovers.
With little likelihood of getting much going on the ground, the Dolphins could have a very difficult day moving the chains with any consistency in this one. Asking back up Receivers make big plays in a short week is a long-shot and the Texans may not give up too many points here.
This is still a big spread when you consider the Deshaun Watson injury which means he could not fly to Jacksonville in Week 7 but had to be driven on a bus. That really doesn't sound too good, but Watson may only need to put up 14 points to cover this number and he should be good enough to at least put Houston in a position to do that.
Watson is going to miss Keke Coutee who has stepped up for the Offense, but Lamar Miller should find more room up front to get the running game going and keeping Watson in third and manageable spots in this game.
Miami's Defensive unit have been capable of turning the ball over and they do get a significant push up front which can't be ignored, but Watson should be able to do enough to score the points needed to win this game.
The public look to be behind Miami so opposing them is a bonus, while the better teams have tended to dominate the Thursday Night Football games with the little preparation time between games.
Houston look to be that team and Miami's injuries just make it all the tougher. There is no way the Texans Defensive unit are going to want to lose to Brock Osweiler which should make them that much more hungry in this one and I think it is that unit who will put them in a position to win and cover.
You can't deny that some of the Coaching for the Texans is not up to the standard you would expect and that means they are a poor team to back to cover any spread. However Miami are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and I will look for the Texans to open up Week 8 with a win and a cover on Thursday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: When the three games were announced for the 2018 season to be played in London, this one between the Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles and AFC Championship Game Runners Up Jacksonville Jaguars looked the pick of the games.
However both teams have underachieved in the 2018 season and this is a big game for both to get back into contention in the NFC East and AFC South Divisions respectively.
The Jaguars are the host team and have become synonymous with London as a annual visitor to the United Kingdom to play a 'home' game over the last few years. That make give them an edge and turning back to Blake Bortles at Quarter Back is probably the right decision for Jacksonville considering how well he has played at Wembley Stadium.
It will be down to Bortles to make the plays to move the chains for the Jaguars and he can have some success in this one. Bortles is not expected to get a lot of support from the run game against this Eagles Defensive Line, but injuries have weakened the Secondary and Bortles can throw the ball with some success in this game.
The same can be said for Carson Wentz as long as the Eagles are not suffering a hangover from the disappointing home loss to the Carolina Panthers. Philadelphia blew a big lead in that game and fell apart in the Fourth Quarter, but this week they are facing a Jacksonville team who are short of confidence and who have perhaps been enjoying London a little too much.
There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that Wentz will feel he can expose and I do like the Eagles to beat a team who have enjoyed plenty of success in London. I expect to see Philadelphia have a little more balance on the Offensive side of the ball and I think they can work their way to a win by around a Touchdown.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: They may be one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the 2018 season, but the Kansas City Chiefs have yet to shake off the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West Divisional race. The Chiefs will be looking to keep the pressure on the rest of the Division by completing a second win over the Denver Broncos this season and also move up to 3-0 in AFC West games.
The first time these teams met it took a huge Fourth Quarter comeback from Kansas City to win in Mile High, although they were also helped by poor Quarter Back play from the criminally overpaid Case Keenum who was picked up this off-season after his first positive season with the Minnesota Vikings.
Keenum has some of the fans on his back after some inconsistent performances behind Center all season, but Chad Kelly's indiscretions saw him released from the team. That means there isn't a viable alternative for the fans to get behind and they have to stick with Keenum.
The Quarter Back had one of his better games in the Thursday Night Football win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 and that means he has had some additional time to prepare for this game. Case Keenum should have some success against the Kansas City Chiefs Defense which has not played up to the level of the Offensive unit in 2018.
Philipp Lindsay has formed part of a Committee at Running Back for the Broncos in 2018, but he should get the majority of the touches on Sunday with Royce Freeman expected to miss a couple of games. Lindsay has been one of the positives this season and he should be able to have some success against the Kansas City Defensive Line which has not been as strong against the run as they would like.
Keeping Denver in third and manageable should give Keenum a chance to find some of his big name Receivers but he has to be wary of the ball-hawking nature of the Chiefs Secondary. Kansas City have also been strong at getting pressure up front so there will be a real pressure on Keenum and the Denver Offensive Line whenever they are behind the chains.
The Broncos are going to need Keenum to have a strong game to stay with the Kansas City Chiefs who have scored at least 30 points in every game bar the first meeting with the Denver Broncos. They have managed to reach 40 plus points in their last couple of games and Patrick Mahomes has been a revelation for the Chiefs who traded away Alex Smith this off-season as a sure sign of how highly Andy Reid rates Mahomes.
Mahomes has not disappointed, but he may not need to have another 300 plus yard passing game in this one. The Denver Defensive Line have been terrible against the run so Kareem Hunt could be in line for a huge game for Kansas City, while Head Coach Reid is capable of getting the ball to the likes of Tyreek Hill in jet sweep looks that could see Kansas City moving the chains in chunks on the ground.
Denver have given up 148 yards per game at 5.3 yards per carry in 2018, but those numbers have been even worse in their last three games as they balloon to 220 yards per game at 6.8 yards per carry. The concern about the ability of Patrick Mahomes will mean Denver can't bring more men up to the line of scrimmage to protect against the run and I can see Kansas City having a huge Offensive game again.
Avoiding turnovers is key for Mahomes against a Denver Secondary who have made some big plays, but I do think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball efficiently all day.
This is a big spread when you think of how Denver could potentially control the clock on the ground, but I think the Chiefs will force a couple of errant throws from Case Keenum which can turn the tide in their favour. The last two home games Kansas City have had against Denver have seen them win by double digits each time.
Denver did cover at Arizona in Week 7, but they are 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen road games and they are 0-6 against the spread in the last six against the Chiefs. With Kansas City going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home, I will back the Chiefs to record another big win.
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders Pick: Jon Gruden was coaxed out of the commentary booth with the promise of a ten year contract with the Oakland Raiders and most felt he was going into a very strong situation. The Raiders might have been 6-10 in 2017, but the year before they had won double that amount of games and looked to have a decent young core of players.
That clearly isn't what Gruden has felt as Oakland have very much decided to reset and build the team in the mould the new Head Coach wants. Allowing Khalil Mack to be traded to the Chicago Bears has been a heavily criticised move with Gruden bemoaning a lack of a pass rush ever since giving up arguably the best Defensive End in the NFL.
Another trade was completed in the Bye Week as Amari Cooper was shipped off to the Dallas Cowboys for a First Round Draft Pick, but that has been a trade from which Gruden has been praised. With the Bears and Cowboys First Round Picks to add to their own, Oakland could get much better very quickly if they can make the right selections next April.
However all of these moves certainly means the remainder of 2018 may be a lost season for the Raiders who want to be a much more competitive team by the time they move to Las Vegas. There may be more moves to come before the trade deadline next Tuesday and that means it has to be difficult for the players to focus on Week 8 even out of a Bye Week.
Derek Carr is expected to remain with Oakland through the rest of this season, but it won't be a big surprise to see the Quarter Back moved on at the end of 2018. He does have a chance to help the Raiders score some points in Week 8 having overseen Oakland scoring a combined 13 points in their last couple of games, but Marshawn Lynch is out of the line up too and it might be all on Carr's shoulders.
They are facing an Indianapolis Colts team who have recovered from a losing run to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 and who will be looking to get back into contention in the AFC South by moving to 3-5 in the AFC South before their own Bye Week. The Colts have been stout up front with the Defensive Line being able to clamp down on Running Backs and that will put more pressure on Carr to perform with players and fans questioning the Quarter Back.
Carr has not been well protected by the Offensive Line and even a limited pass rush like the Indianapolis Colts possess could get after him if they can force Oakland into third and long situations. The Quarter Back has to worry about the Interceptions that Indianapolis have managed to pick up and he has to find Receivers without the presence of Cooper in the line up which could make it difficult to move the chains with any kind of consistency.
Moving the ball should not be a big problem for the Indianapolis Colts as long as they remain focused on the task at hand. I expect that will be the case with the team chasing the leaders in the AFC South and Andrew Luck is looking like he is getting back to his best after missing a number of months with injuries prior to the 2018 season.
Marlon Mack has been banged up at Running Back, but he should be good to go on Sunday and can provide a spark to open things up for Luck in the passing game. Mack should be able to trample on an Oakland Defensive Line who have really been worn down in each passing week this season and that should set Luck up to find the big plays down the field.
The return of TY Hilton is huge for Luck and I can see the two combining for a big game through the air as Oakland struggle to get any kind of pressure on the Quarter Back. Andrew Luck has shown he is capable of moving this Offensive unit up and down the field and I think the Colts are the right call even as a road favourite.
Indianapolis are 31-13 against the spread in their last forty-four games against a team with a losing record. I have to respect how strong Oakland have been coming out of their Bye Week in recent years, but the moves made must have affected the confidence of the players and I don't think they can keep up with the Colts in a shoot-out.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers go into Week 8 as the biggest underdog they have been in the Aaron Rodgers era when the Quarter Back is set to play. It won't surprise anyone to know the sharp money has come in on the Packers but they also look like being a public underdog in Week 8 as they get set to face the last unbeaten team in the NFL.
The Packers are in a tough NFC North with all four teams at 0.500 and the likes of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears looking very strong. It is going to be difficult to make the Play Offs without winning the Division, but the Packers are coming out of the Bye Week looking far healthier than when they went into it.
Aaron Rodgers looks like he could have almost fully recovered from the knee issues that have been blighting him in 2018. He was in full practice on Wednesday and Rodgers will also have been given a boost from the return of his full complement of Wide Receivers with Randall Cobb likely to be back in the starting line up too.
The Packers should feel that gives them every chance of challenging the Los Angeles Rams. They have been able to run the ball effectively enough and they should be able to challenge the Rams on the ground with the much vaunted Defensive Line of Los Angeles not playing as well as you would expect when it comes to stopping the run.
It will be important for Green Bay just so they have the balance for Aaron Rodgers to make his plays, but more importantly it could just ease off the powerful Los Angeles pass rush which can be a disruptive force. The Green Bay Offensive Line has not played as well they would like when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back, but Rodgers could help if he is feeling much better out of the Bye Week as he moves around the pocket.
There will definitely be some holes to exploit in the Los Angeles Secondary if Rodgers is given the time to throw downfield. The two big Corner Back signings Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are out or limited in Week 8 and Aaron Rodgers has to feel his Receivers can win those battles as Green Bay look to throw down the field.
While I expect Green Bay to move the chains, the Rams have been very strong Offensively thanks to Head Coach Sean McVay who is finding the right plays to put his team in a strong spot. Week 8 may be an easier game plan to put together with the Green Bay Defensive Line struggling against the run so I would expect to see a lot of Todd Gurley as Los Angeles look to control the clock and keep the chains moving.
Gurley has been having a great season and I think he will have another big game and that makes life much easier for Jared Goff at Quarter Back. Goff will need that support as he is likely to be faced with an intense pass rush if the Rams get behind the down and distance, while the Green Bay Secondary have just picked up their play prior to the Bye Week which could see them have some success against the likes of Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods.
Goff has just been a little looser with the ball in the last couple of games and that has to be a concern for the Rams against a team as strong as the Green Bay Packers. You don't want to be giving Rodgers and this Offensive unit extra possessions, but even then this is a lot of points for the Green Bay Packers to be getting as a head start.
Green Bay tend to be over-rated by the public and that has seen them produce some really poor numbers against the spread, but Aaron Rodgers should not be given over a Touchdown worth of points against any team. The Packers should come out of the Bye Week in better health and the Los Angeles Rams had won three games in a row by seven points or fewer before blowing out the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.
This is plenty of points for the Packers to be in receipt of and I will take the points on offer.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Sean Payton and the entire New Orleans Saints can tell anyone who listens that this game does not have a revenge factor in play, but it's simply not possible for players to ignore the events of January 2018. The Saints were leading in the NFC Divisional Round here against the Minnesota Vikings and Stefon Diggs grabbed what turned out to be a walk off Touchdown to send the Vikings through to the Championship Game.
The Saints have had to be thinking about that all summer and I am convinced they would have circled this game as soon as the schedule was released in April. Both teams are currently leading their respective Divisions so there are some Play Off implications on the line with a potential tie-breaker for a First Round bye as well as being able to host a Divisional Round Game at play.
We are still reaching the halfway mark of the season though and both the Saints and Vikings play in competitive Divisions that will need work to win. That means this game is very important to the winner to just keep their noses in front of their rivals and I think it could be a fun, high-scoring encounter between the teams.
Minnesota may have a winning record on the season as Kirk Cousins has given them an upgrade at Quarter Back, but the Defensive unit has been hit by injuries and are not playing to the standard they have set in the last few seasons under Mike Zimmer.
That could put some pressure on Cousins and the Offensive unit to move the chains and score the points to win the game. It will mainly be pressure on Cousins throwing the ball because Dalvin Cook is likely sitting another week and it will be tough for Latavius Murray against this New Orleans Defensive Line who have allowed 3.1 yards per carry over the course of the season.
Last season the Saints Secondary did take a step up with some rookies coming in and making an impact, but they won't find it easy to shut down Cousins, Diggs and an increasingly impressive Adam Thielen. The Quarter Back could be put under some pressure from the New Orleans pass rush, but I would still anticipate Cousins making some big plays through the air in what could develop into a shoot out.
The Defensive decline I have mentioned about the Vikings is likely going to be exposed even more by Drew Brees who has not dropped off his own level of performance as he continues to set new NFL records. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have offered some balance for New Orleans to make things even more comfortable for Brees, although the two Running Backs could struggle against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has stayed strong.
Drew Brees won't worry even if the Saints can't run the ball traditionally as he will make short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield who are dangerous out in space. The Minnesota pass rush has been effective, but Brees doesn't hold onto the ball for too long and his Receivers should be able to find holes in the Vikings Secondary that gives the Saints the chance to move the ball down the field.
The Vikings have won three straight games and they have played well in those games, but this is a big step up for them compared with games against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.
The spread has flipped with New Orleans now a narrow favourite to win here and that does change the mentality of the players a little bit. However the Saints are 15-3 against the spread in their last eighteen road games against a team with a winning record at home and they are 17-5 against the spread in the last twenty-two road games.
New Orleans were a little fortunate to beat Baltimore last week, but this Minnesota Defensive unit isn't as strong as the Ravens one. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home, but I will back the New Orleans Saints to edge them out in the big Sunday Night Football primetime game.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 8 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Thursday, 25 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 25th)
The WTA Finals will begin to set up the Semi Finals at this tournament over the next two days as the Group matches come to a conclusion.
First up is the White Group where all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final after four of the six Group matches have been completed.
For some there is no room for error- Petra Kvitova needs to win in straight sets and hope Elina Svitolina does the same if the Czech player wants to make it through to the Semi Final. Any other result will keep her compatriot alive, but Karolina Pliskova will feel destiny is her own hands and a first win over Kvitova will be enough to move her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the final match in the Group.
You would assume Elina Svitolina has made it through to the Semi Final, but two wins have not been enough to confirm her place in the Semi Final. She will know all the permutations by the time she takes to the court to play Caroline Wozniacki, but right now Svitolina will know one more set will be enough unless Petra Kvitova wins the early match when her place in the Semi Final will be secured.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: There is always some doubt around a player when they have not been able to beat another, especially when it comes to playing someone from the same country. That is certainly an issue for Karolina Pliskova on Thursday when she faces Petra Kvitova in the final Group match for both players.
In all honesty Pliskova also has to get over the disappointment of losing a tight three set match against Elina Svitolina, a match that she should have arguably won. That would have been enough to secure a Semi Final spot in Singapore and now she has to face a dangerous opponent who may not have much to lose.
Petra Kvitova suffered a tough loss a couple of days ago too when she was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in three sets. That defeat has put her on the brink of exiting the tournament and Kvitova knows she can't even afford to lose one set if she is going to have a chance to play in the Semi Final on Saturday.
She hasn't really been playing well enough to think Kvitova is capable of doing that, but having won all three previous matches against Pliskova means she has the mental edge in this match. This is also a different sort of match for both players as they face another big hitter rather than a player who may be using their superior movement to get the better of them around the court.
It does mean first strike tennis is all important and I am giving the edge to Pliskova with the way she has been serving. Pliskova has also been winning a lot more tennis matches than Kvitova over the last six weeks since the US Open was completed and that may be enough for Pliskova to finally get in a position to better her compatriot.
The favourites have really struggled at the WTA Finals so far with their 1-7 record against the spread and just 2-6 record straight up. That may have a lot to do with how little separation can be made from the top players on the Tour at the moment but Pliskova can earn a win for the favourites by edging out Kvitova in three sets.
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Things will be much clearer for both of these players when they take to the court for the second of the Group matches to be played in the White Group on Thursday. If Petra Kvitova has beaten Karolina Pliskova it will be good enough for Elina Svitolina to have earned a Semi Final spot, but otherwise she is going to need at least one set from this match.
For Caroline Wozniacki it is clear that she needs to win this match but she will know that he has to win the match in straight sets if Karolina Pliskova has won the first Singles match going onto the court. A Kvitova win would mean Wozniacki just needs to win this match and so it could be a tense affair regardless.
This is the second season in a row that Wozniacki and Svitolina are meeting in the Group Stage of the WTA Finals, although last year it was the first match for the two players. On that occasion Wozniacki lost just two games in her win over Svitolina which also snapped a career record of 0-3 against the Ukrainian.
You would think that Wozniacki is very happy in the conditions and she has shown her desire to be here and defend the title she won last season in her win over Kvitova a couple of days ago. She will need to bring some of her best tennis to the court to beat Svitolina whose own confidence has to be in a good place after winning both of her previous matches, even if she was a little fortunate to be in the position to win the match against Pliskova.
Out of the two players it is Wozniacki who has shown more consistent form since the end of the US Open and she will be confident having beaten Svitolina here last year. There is a chance that Svitolina just relaxes having invested so much to win her first two matches in the tournament and I also think Wozniacki can get enough joy from the return of serve to be in a position to win this match.
I do worry that Wozniacki perhaps loses her own focus if Pliskova wins and she drops a set in this match. That would mean she is going out of the tournament whether she wins or loses this match and the desire may come off her game and reduce the intensity of her performance.
Personally I think Wozniacki will look to end her season on a high with a win no matter what it means for her future in the tournament and I will back her to cover as the favourite for the second time in Singapore.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 9-6, + 6.22 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.73% Yield)
First up is the White Group where all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final after four of the six Group matches have been completed.
For some there is no room for error- Petra Kvitova needs to win in straight sets and hope Elina Svitolina does the same if the Czech player wants to make it through to the Semi Final. Any other result will keep her compatriot alive, but Karolina Pliskova will feel destiny is her own hands and a first win over Kvitova will be enough to move her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the final match in the Group.
You would assume Elina Svitolina has made it through to the Semi Final, but two wins have not been enough to confirm her place in the Semi Final. She will know all the permutations by the time she takes to the court to play Caroline Wozniacki, but right now Svitolina will know one more set will be enough unless Petra Kvitova wins the early match when her place in the Semi Final will be secured.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: There is always some doubt around a player when they have not been able to beat another, especially when it comes to playing someone from the same country. That is certainly an issue for Karolina Pliskova on Thursday when she faces Petra Kvitova in the final Group match for both players.
In all honesty Pliskova also has to get over the disappointment of losing a tight three set match against Elina Svitolina, a match that she should have arguably won. That would have been enough to secure a Semi Final spot in Singapore and now she has to face a dangerous opponent who may not have much to lose.
Petra Kvitova suffered a tough loss a couple of days ago too when she was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in three sets. That defeat has put her on the brink of exiting the tournament and Kvitova knows she can't even afford to lose one set if she is going to have a chance to play in the Semi Final on Saturday.
She hasn't really been playing well enough to think Kvitova is capable of doing that, but having won all three previous matches against Pliskova means she has the mental edge in this match. This is also a different sort of match for both players as they face another big hitter rather than a player who may be using their superior movement to get the better of them around the court.
It does mean first strike tennis is all important and I am giving the edge to Pliskova with the way she has been serving. Pliskova has also been winning a lot more tennis matches than Kvitova over the last six weeks since the US Open was completed and that may be enough for Pliskova to finally get in a position to better her compatriot.
The favourites have really struggled at the WTA Finals so far with their 1-7 record against the spread and just 2-6 record straight up. That may have a lot to do with how little separation can be made from the top players on the Tour at the moment but Pliskova can earn a win for the favourites by edging out Kvitova in three sets.
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Things will be much clearer for both of these players when they take to the court for the second of the Group matches to be played in the White Group on Thursday. If Petra Kvitova has beaten Karolina Pliskova it will be good enough for Elina Svitolina to have earned a Semi Final spot, but otherwise she is going to need at least one set from this match.
For Caroline Wozniacki it is clear that she needs to win this match but she will know that he has to win the match in straight sets if Karolina Pliskova has won the first Singles match going onto the court. A Kvitova win would mean Wozniacki just needs to win this match and so it could be a tense affair regardless.
This is the second season in a row that Wozniacki and Svitolina are meeting in the Group Stage of the WTA Finals, although last year it was the first match for the two players. On that occasion Wozniacki lost just two games in her win over Svitolina which also snapped a career record of 0-3 against the Ukrainian.
You would think that Wozniacki is very happy in the conditions and she has shown her desire to be here and defend the title she won last season in her win over Kvitova a couple of days ago. She will need to bring some of her best tennis to the court to beat Svitolina whose own confidence has to be in a good place after winning both of her previous matches, even if she was a little fortunate to be in the position to win the match against Pliskova.
Out of the two players it is Wozniacki who has shown more consistent form since the end of the US Open and she will be confident having beaten Svitolina here last year. There is a chance that Svitolina just relaxes having invested so much to win her first two matches in the tournament and I also think Wozniacki can get enough joy from the return of serve to be in a position to win this match.
I do worry that Wozniacki perhaps loses her own focus if Pliskova wins and she drops a set in this match. That would mean she is going out of the tournament whether she wins or loses this match and the desire may come off her game and reduce the intensity of her performance.
Personally I think Wozniacki will look to end her season on a high with a win no matter what it means for her future in the tournament and I will back her to cover as the favourite for the second time in Singapore.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 9-6, + 6.22 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.73% Yield)
Wednesday, 24 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 24th)
The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the Red Group completes the second round robin matches with the two losing players and two winning players from Monday's action meeting one another.
As we saw on Tuesday, this doesn't necessarily mean we will have any confirmation of players that are through to the Semi Final or exiting the tournament.
However there will be some pressure on Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka to avoid becoming the first player to exit the WTA Finals. On the other hand Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens have made very strong starts to the tournament and any player who can win in straight sets will be in a very strong position to make it through to Friday's Semi Finals.
On Wednesday we will also see the continuation of the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel and Vienna as we get down to the final weeks of the 2018 season. With doubts about the fitness of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro there could be additional places available at the World Tour Finals which means there could be an exciting race developing in the next couple of weeks.
A number of those players chasing a spot at the O2 Arena in London are in action this week and will be looking to give themselves a shot in the arm with a deep run in either Basel or Vienna.
Angelique Kerber v Naomi Osaka: Two more matches were played at the WTA Finals on Tuesday in the White Group and the results mean the underdogs are 5-1 so far in this tournament. Both Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka will feel they should have won their opening matches as the favourites on Monday, but instead they could be fighting for their survival in the WTA Finals.
I have so much time for the way Osaka has been playing, but she will have to really understand her game plan more clearly if she is going to get back on track here.
The conditions looked like they could be very difficult for Osaka to deal with in her loss to Sloane Stephens and that could be underlined by someone like Kerber who can defend as well as anyone on the WTA Tour. It means there is a real pressure on Osaka to find the big serves frequently so she can play first strike tennis on a court where hitting winners is far from a straight-forward task.
If Osaka is not able to serve effectively enough then it will feel like Kerber can make it four wins in a row against the youngster with the more effective movement around the court and the ability to defend long enough to extract mistakes from Osaka.
The Kerber serve is something of a weakness and it will sit up on this court which will give Osaka every chance to attack and force the German backwards. It was the main reason Kerber was not able to get the better of Kiki Bertens in her first match in the Group and she will be well aware she needs to be better in that department.
In all honesty the match got away from Kerber, but she was arguably the better player against Bertens and she has enjoyed playing here in Singapore before. I do think the conditions favour her more than Osaka and I am looking for yet another underdog to come through with a win here at the WTA Finals.
Kerber being without a coach this week is not a big concern and I think ultimately she is going to have enough defensive work to wear down Osaka although it may be another match in this tournament that needs three sets to separate the players.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Neither one of these players have been involved in the WTA Finals before so it was impressive to see both Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens hold themselves together to earn a victory in their opening match at the tournament.
The winner of this one is likely going to be playing in the Semi Final on Friday, although we have seen in the other Group that two wins is not necessarily enough to earn confirmation of that. However it would be a big surprise to win two matches and not make the Semi Final so both Stephens and Bertens will be looking to ease the pressure on themselves by winning on Wednesday.
You could make a decent case for both players, but I think it was Bertens who invested more emotionally in her win over Angelique Kerber than Stephens did in her three set win over Naomi Osaka. The swings of momentum in the Bertens-Kerber final set would have taken something away mentally and I am not convinced the Dutchwoman would have fully recharged in time for this match.
She had lost three of her final four Tour matches before the WTA Finals began which means Bertens could feel she is playing with 'house money' by being involved in the Singles draw here. However there can be a relaxation involved with knowing there is one more match to play to secure a spot in the Semi Final and that could see the intensity just drop off from the level needed to win the first match.
The conditions look tough for the players, but I would just give the edge to Stephens who is the better mover of the two. Bertens may possess the bigger serve, but she will need a lot of first serves to prevent being drawn into the longer rallies which should be won by the American.
Backing a favourite is not an easy thing to do in a tournament where the underdogs have been thriving. However I think Stephens deserves her spot here and she should be able to back up her win over Naomi Osaka by almost certainly earning a Semi Final spot here.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.12 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.33% Yield)
As we saw on Tuesday, this doesn't necessarily mean we will have any confirmation of players that are through to the Semi Final or exiting the tournament.
However there will be some pressure on Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka to avoid becoming the first player to exit the WTA Finals. On the other hand Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens have made very strong starts to the tournament and any player who can win in straight sets will be in a very strong position to make it through to Friday's Semi Finals.
On Wednesday we will also see the continuation of the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel and Vienna as we get down to the final weeks of the 2018 season. With doubts about the fitness of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro there could be additional places available at the World Tour Finals which means there could be an exciting race developing in the next couple of weeks.
A number of those players chasing a spot at the O2 Arena in London are in action this week and will be looking to give themselves a shot in the arm with a deep run in either Basel or Vienna.
Angelique Kerber v Naomi Osaka: Two more matches were played at the WTA Finals on Tuesday in the White Group and the results mean the underdogs are 5-1 so far in this tournament. Both Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka will feel they should have won their opening matches as the favourites on Monday, but instead they could be fighting for their survival in the WTA Finals.
I have so much time for the way Osaka has been playing, but she will have to really understand her game plan more clearly if she is going to get back on track here.
The conditions looked like they could be very difficult for Osaka to deal with in her loss to Sloane Stephens and that could be underlined by someone like Kerber who can defend as well as anyone on the WTA Tour. It means there is a real pressure on Osaka to find the big serves frequently so she can play first strike tennis on a court where hitting winners is far from a straight-forward task.
If Osaka is not able to serve effectively enough then it will feel like Kerber can make it four wins in a row against the youngster with the more effective movement around the court and the ability to defend long enough to extract mistakes from Osaka.
The Kerber serve is something of a weakness and it will sit up on this court which will give Osaka every chance to attack and force the German backwards. It was the main reason Kerber was not able to get the better of Kiki Bertens in her first match in the Group and she will be well aware she needs to be better in that department.
In all honesty the match got away from Kerber, but she was arguably the better player against Bertens and she has enjoyed playing here in Singapore before. I do think the conditions favour her more than Osaka and I am looking for yet another underdog to come through with a win here at the WTA Finals.
Kerber being without a coach this week is not a big concern and I think ultimately she is going to have enough defensive work to wear down Osaka although it may be another match in this tournament that needs three sets to separate the players.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Neither one of these players have been involved in the WTA Finals before so it was impressive to see both Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens hold themselves together to earn a victory in their opening match at the tournament.
The winner of this one is likely going to be playing in the Semi Final on Friday, although we have seen in the other Group that two wins is not necessarily enough to earn confirmation of that. However it would be a big surprise to win two matches and not make the Semi Final so both Stephens and Bertens will be looking to ease the pressure on themselves by winning on Wednesday.
You could make a decent case for both players, but I think it was Bertens who invested more emotionally in her win over Angelique Kerber than Stephens did in her three set win over Naomi Osaka. The swings of momentum in the Bertens-Kerber final set would have taken something away mentally and I am not convinced the Dutchwoman would have fully recharged in time for this match.
She had lost three of her final four Tour matches before the WTA Finals began which means Bertens could feel she is playing with 'house money' by being involved in the Singles draw here. However there can be a relaxation involved with knowing there is one more match to play to secure a spot in the Semi Final and that could see the intensity just drop off from the level needed to win the first match.
The conditions look tough for the players, but I would just give the edge to Stephens who is the better mover of the two. Bertens may possess the bigger serve, but she will need a lot of first serves to prevent being drawn into the longer rallies which should be won by the American.
Backing a favourite is not an easy thing to do in a tournament where the underdogs have been thriving. However I think Stephens deserves her spot here and she should be able to back up her win over Naomi Osaka by almost certainly earning a Semi Final spot here.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.12 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 23 October 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 23-25)
There is still one more international break to come between now and March, but this is a big month for teams in the Champions League and Europa League as they play a pivotal two games that begin to separate those teams chasing Knock Out spots and those who may be heading out of either competition.
Of course the third place team in the Champions League Group Stage will drop down into the Europa League, but that is not the ambition of the clubs in that competition.
All of the English clubs have work to do in the Champions League with none of the four teams involved earning more than four points from their first two Group games. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have double headers against the weakest team in their Group so will be expected to get their Champions League back on track after losing three of the four games they have played combined.
Manchester City will be confident of securing at least four points against Shakhtar Donetsk which will erase the disappointment of losing to Lyon on Match Day 1. Anything less and there will be a lot of work to do for a team whose own manager doesn't believe are ready to win the Champions League, although I do think Pep Guardiola is trying to deflect the pressure from his players.
Their cross town rivals Manchester United have the toughest of the double headers for the English clubs as they face Italian Champions Juventus twice. There is pressure on United having failed to beat Valencia at home on Match Day 2 and anything less than two points over the next two weeks may not be good enough for Manchester United in what has been a tough campaign so far.
The Europa League has bee much more comfortable for the English teams as both Arsenal and Chelsea have won their opening two Group games. Both clubs will be looking to secure their passage through to the Last 32 of the Europa League before the next international break which will give their managers plenty of opportunity to keep players fresh for the hectic period that comes immediately out of the November international break through to the New Year.
Rangers and Celtic are also involved in the Europa League Group Stage and both teams will feel they can get out of their difficult Groups after securing at least three points each from the first two games. Rangers look in the stronger position with four points secured and with a home game to come this week, but things can change quickly.
I have written a short piece about Manchester United which was posted before the positive performance at Stamford Bridge. You can read that here.
AEK Athens v Bayern Munich Pick: It can be hard to back a team like Bayern Munich who have been going through a relative crisis, especially when you know the layers are not going to give anything away with them.
No matter the form Bayern Munich are going to be favoured in almost every game they play and that can see some poor value being placed on them.
I am not sure that is the case in this Champions League tie though with Bayern Munich looking considerably stronger than AEK Athens who have conceded three goals in losing to both Ajax and Benfica. The 2-3 home loss to Benfica came in a game where their visitors had been reduced to ten men for the entirety of the second half and yet AEK Athens came up short.
And for all the negatives around Bayern Munich it should be remembered that they have won 5 of their last 6 on their travels in all competitions this season. Bayern Munich won 0-2 at Benfica on Match Day 1 and that result has seen them win 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and the side have scored at least twice in each of those wins.
Injuries are affecting the possibility of squad rotation for Bayern Munich who are an ageing team, but they should still be far too good for AEK Athens.
This is a big handicap for Bayern Munich to cover considering the poor recent run they had been on before beating Wolfsburg at the weekend. However I also think AEK Athens are considerably weaker than the usual level of opponent they will come up against and I will back the German Champions to put themselves in a very strong position in this Champions League Group with a big win.
Manchester United v Juventus Pick: This really does feel like the biggest European night at Old Trafford since Manchester United faced Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2018. There has been a Europa League Semi Final played at Old Trafford since that Quarter Final, but the big European nights involve the big names and Manchester United versus Juventus does bring back memories of past momentous occasions.
It is almost twenty years since Manchester United beat Juventus on their way to the Treble, but the clubs look to be in different spots these days. While Manchester United are scrambling to get back amongst the elite of European Football, Juventus are one of the favourites to win the Champions League.
Signing Cristiano Ronaldo shows the ambition of Juventus and he will return to Old Trafford for only the second time as an opposition player since leaving Manchester United in 2009.
Ronaldo will form the main danger for Juventus, but there are plenty of other threats carried by the Italian Champions who are favoured to win at Old Trafford. Juventus have scored at least twice in 4 straight away Champions League games and they have managed to do the same in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions in the 2018/19 season.
The struggles Manchester United have had defensively is a real concern in this fixture, but Jose Mourinho will be more encouraged by the attacking threat Manchester United have posed in their last couple of games. That includes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday and I do think Manchester United will cause problems for an ageing Juventus defence.
Both teams could play their part in this one and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this game on Match Day 3 of the Champions League.
I think Manchester United are better going forward than defending and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals. The Juventus defence is still a daunting one to break down and they have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets, but Manchester United should always pose a threat at home and the pace in the forward line should be a concern for Juventus to deal with.
Manchester United as a home underdog is appealing, but Juventus' superb recent away record in the Champions League has to be respected and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.
Roma v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Champions League Group has been blown open by CSKA Moscow's 1-0 win over Real Madrid on Match Day 2 which means the Russian side top the section with 4 points over the European Champions and Roma who both have 3 points on the board.
While it is still expected that Real Madrid will do enough to get out of the Group beginning with a couple of wins over Viktoria Plzen, both Roma and CSKA Moscow now get into a big double header against one another.
The team who take the most points over the next couple of weeks are likely going to join Real Madrid in the Last 16 and there is some pressure on Roma considering CSKA Moscow got 'bonus' points with the win over Real Madrid.
The 0-2 home loss to SPAL would have hurt Roma, but they can bounce back this week with their strong home record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months not to be underestimated. Of course CSKA Moscow need to be respected considering their own strong run of away results in Europe, but they were 2-0 down at Viktoria Plzen on Match Day 1 and Roma are a much better side than the Czech team.
Roma do score plenty of goals at home usually and so I won't worry too much about the result against SPAL this past weekend. They should be able to dictate the play in this one and CSKA Moscow will have to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to get a result here.
I backed Roma on Match Day 2 in their home game with Viktoria Plzen and I will go back to the same market here. They have scored enough goals to think they can cover the Asian Handicap against a CSKA Moscow team who were beaten 4-1 at Arsenal in the Europa League a few months ago.
Club Brugge v Monaco Pick: Two clubs who have lost both Champions League games played so far this season will be meeting in this early kick off on Match Day 3 and it does feel they are already competing for third place and a spot in the Europa League.
Thierry Henry will be taking charge of his first match in the Champions League and only his second in charge of Monaco on Wednesday. He has plenty of work to do with a Monaco team who have lost confidence and look like they are very vulnerable at the back.
The first task for Henry is to make the players believe in their ability again, but Monaco might already be considering the importance of domestic matters over European commitments. It could be something that is more obvious in the weeks ahead, but for now Henry has to be looking for any kind of win to give the Monaco players a shot in the arm.
It won't be easy to achieve in Brugge against the Belgian Champions who have been competitive in their two losses in the Champions League. There is a difference in level of quality which has to be bridged, but Club Brugge should be playing with more confidence than their visitors even if their own recent results have not been as good as expected.
Club Brugge do have a poor record in the Champions League which can't be ignored, but they have a team that can get forward and cause problems. Against this Monaco defence I would expect the home team to create chances and score goals, but their own defence should be challenged by a Monaco team who have scored in their last couple of games.
The absence of Radamel Falcao hurts Monaco, but I think both teams can contribute to an attacking game of football and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the way to go.
PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur have lost both Champions League Group Stage games played this season and there is little doubt that they will be chasing two wins from this double header.
Anything less would put both teams in a very difficult position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League and I think there will be regrets at both clubs.
They have both been beaten 2-1 by Inter Milan, but both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur took the lead against the Italian club. At least Tottenham Hotspur can point to the fact they have to host Inter Milan as they look to get back on track in the Champions League, but that will all be for nought if they can't beat PSV twice.
It won't be easy to win in the Netherlands as PSV Eindhoven will be playing with the confidence that comes from having won all nine Dutch League games. There is a big step up to the Champions League, but Ajax have shown it can be bridged and Tottenham Hotspur are not in dominant form at the moment.
At least there are some key players back for Tottenham Hotspur with both Hugo Lloris and Christian Eriksen set to play in this one after the 0-1 win over West Ham United at the weekend. Spurs could thank Lloris for that victory and they will need their goalkeeper to be at his best in this one as they look for a vital win on the road.
PSV Eindhoven will be a threat going forward, but I am not convinced about them defensively and Tottenham Hotspur should be good enough to expose those vulnerabilities.
The first goal should be critical in this fixture even if both teams have blown leads in the Champions League already this season. Tottenham Hotspur have scored enough away goals in the competition to deserve favouritism and I do think they can win here as they should have done in Milan on Match Day 1.
At odds against Tottenham Hotspur can be chanced to secure a vital three points in Eindhoven.
Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda Pick: There have been reports that a high Ranking official at Crvena Zvezda placed a huge bet on his team losing by exactly five goals at Paris Saint-Germain which is being investigated at the moment.
That investigation will play out, but I am not of the belief that something fishy went on in that game as Paris Saint-Germain were just a lot stronger than Crvena Zvezda.
Some will say it would look that way if their visitors were not trying, but the little I saw that day didn't suggest a team wasn't giving it their all, but simply Crvena Zvezda were being outclassed in a game they were expected to struggle in.
That could be the case again on Wednesday as they face a Liverpool team that look like they are not far away from really hammering someone. The 0-1 win at Huddersfield Town was a close one for Liverpool, but they had chances to seal that game emphatically if producing better in the final third.
With both Roberto Firmino and potentially Sadio Mane back in the starting line up Liverpool could more clinical with the chances that come their way. Last season Liverpool destroyed Spartak Moscow at home and they also recorded a comfortable win over Maribor in the Group Stage, although this Asian Handicap is a big one to cover.
It's that much bigger when you think of Liverpool's recent struggles in front of goal over the last month, but the quality of opponent has to be factored in. Take away Huddersfield Town and Liverpool have faced teams of a much higher level than Crvena Zvezda during their poor run of form and it is no surprise they haven't blown away the likes of Chelsea, Napoli and Manchester City.
Crvena Zvezda will try and frustrate Liverpool as long as possible, but I am not sure they will be able to contain their hosts. If they concede inside the first 20 minutes it could be a very long day for the Serbian Champions and I will back Liverpool to win this one big.
Paris Saint-Germain v Napoli Pick: With Liverpool expected to move onto 9 points after their double header with Crvena Zvezda over the next couple of weeks, the pressure is on Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli.
They go into their double header with 3 points and 4 points respectively and these two matches could be key in determining who is able to move through to the Champions League Second Round. If one of these teams are able to win both games on Match Day 3 and 4 I would expect them to move through to the Last 16 and leave the losing team needing a lot of help.
One win each would likely keep them in touch with Liverpool but I don't think either manager is going to settle for that in what should be two very good games to watch.
Home advantage is going to be very important in both Group games and it is Paris Saint-Germain who have that edge on Match Day 3. This is a team who have scored at least three goals in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some big wins over elite teams like Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti's Bayern Munich.
That match fourteen months ago turned out to be the last one Ancelotti managed Bayern Munich so he will be looking for revenge. However his Napoli team have regularly found themselves coming up short in away games in Europe and I expect that to be the case on Wednesday when the visit the French capital.
It is rare to see Napoli beaten easily though and all 3 away Group defeats last season came by the same 2-1 scoreline. Earlier this season Napoli were beaten 3-1 at Juventus though and this Paris Saint-Germain team can be frightening going forward when they are at their best.
In 2018/19 they have tended to be at their best at home and I think Paris Saint-Germain win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.
Leipzig v Celtic Pick: The last couple of years have seen Celtic negotiate the tough Champions League Qualifying Rounds to make it through to the Group Stage of that competition, but this year they are going to find it difficult to reach the Knock Out Rounds in the Europa League.
As soon as the draw was made it was clear Celtic were in for a real challenge to get out of a section containing Salzburg and Leipzig who both impressed in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds last season.
Celtic play with commitment and the tactics used by Brendan Rodgers means they will want to get on the front foot and cause problems for their hosts in this Group game. They have shown they can score goals even at the very best teams having done that in Paris against PSG last season and also leading at Salzburg in this Group.
However it is going to be very difficult to contain a team like Leipzig who have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 home games and have unsurprisingly won 3 of those. Leipzig had also won 5 straight home games in Europe before losing 2-3 to Salzburg on Match Day 1 and this is a team with a lot more experience of playing in European competition compared with twelve months ago.
If you take away the Qualifying Rounds, Celtic have conceded three times in 4 of their last 5 European away games under Rodgers and that makes it tough to win games. I think Leipzig are going to prove to have too much firepower for the Scottish Champions in this fixture at home and I am going to back the Bundesliga club to cover the Asian Handicap.
Sporting v Arsenal Pick: The hard work may already have been done by Arsenal as they bid to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League, but Unai Emery will want to wrap up a spot as soon as possible. That could be important with a very busy fixture list in the Premier League to come and so getting additional rest for key players is what Arsenal will be looking for.
Winning games against Vorskla and Qarabag are decent enough results for Arsenal but a trip to Sporting was looking like the toughest test in the Group as soon as the draw was made.
The form shown by Arsenal has been impressive and has to be the main reason they are such a short price to win in the Portuguese capital. However this is a fixture coming at a difficult time for The Gunners and it would not be a big surprise if a number of key players are rested for the Premier League game against Crystal Palace which is played on Sunday.
That will make Sporting an appealing price, but I also think the home team are being underestimated in this one. They have won 14 of their last 16 home games in all competitions and Sporting have also won 5 of their last 7 home Europa League games including beating Atletico Madrid here in the Quarter Final last season.
Arsenal have been scoring plenty of goals which makes them dangerous, but I think this is a very tough game for them if they are resting some of their key players. A draw would likely be a result that Unai Emery would accept right now knowing a home win against Sporting in two weeks time will see them control the Group, but I also think Sporting can cause plenty of problems for their visitors too.
Backing the home team to avoid a defeat looks tempting enough here.
Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux Pick: In all of the European Groups being played this week it is clear that home form is going to be very important and determine which teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which could miss out.
Over recent years Zenit St Petersburg have really taken that to heart and they have been very good in front of their own fans.
On Thursday Zenit St Petersburg could move into a very strong position in this Group if they can see off Bordeaux, but you do have to consider how much stock the club are putting into the Europa League. After eleven games in the Russian Premier League Zenit St Petersburg are leading the table by 6 points and winning the title is clearly the biggest ambition they will have this season.
Zenit St Petersburg can put the Europa League to the back of their mind if they can take 4 points from Bordeaux over the next couple of weeks though and I think the players will know that.
They are facing a team who have lost both games in this Group, albeit narrowly, and who have not travelled well in Europe outside of the early Qualifying Rounds. Bordeaux have been inconsistent domestically and have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions including a 2-0 defeat at Montpellier last weekend.
This is a long journey for a team from Western Europe to be making and I think it will be a forlorn one for Bordeaux. The home price is not exactly going to get the pulse racing, but Zenit St Petersburg should be too strong for Bordeaux and can pick up the three points here.
Zurich v Leverkusen Pick: Both Zurich and Bayer Leverkusen have won their opening two Europa League Group games which has put them in a very strong position in this section before of a double header against one another.
They have done it in contrasting fashion with Zurich winning both games 1-0, while Leverkusen have scored at least three times in their wins.
I can see this one developing into an attacking game with neither team having much to lose. Zurich will look to be defensively resolute but they are facing a higher quality opponent who are going to get forward and try and score goals. That may mean Zurich have some opportunities on the counter attack in this one, but it will be difficult to contain Leverkusen too and so goals looks to be the order of the day.
This past weekend Zurich drew 3-3 at home with Young Boys so Bayer Leverkusen will believe they can score goals here and I do think they share out at least three on the night.
Besiktas v Genk Pick: With a Group containing all four teams locked on three points the double headers on Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are going to be huge to begin separating the four teams.
That is certainly what Besiktas and Genk will feel with both teams looking to secure four points from the two games against each other to put themselves in a strong position in the section.
Home advantage should be a key factor in both of the games coming up over the next two weeks and this week it is Besiktas who have that edge.
I think that will be all important with Besiktas winning 8 of their last 11 home European games and I do think they will do enough to edge out a tough Genk outfit. Genk have to be respected having just a strong run of 20 wins from their last 23 games in all competitions, but they were beaten in Norway last time out against an out of form Sarpsborg team and this is a big step up against a club who reached the Last 16 of the Champions League a few months ago.
Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the best play with half the stake returned in the event of a draw and that is down to the respect that is offered to Genk.
Chelsea v BATE Borisov Pick: The Europa League has not always been a competition Maurizio Sarri has taken really seriously, but he has seen his Napoli team have some success in it. There is an increased expectation on him at Chelsea as he looks to restore the club to the Champions League and early team selections in this Group suggests the Italian is keen to keep a second avenue into the Champions League alive.
Back to back wins to open the Group Stage has put Chelsea in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 32. Maurizio Sarri will be keen to wrap up that place over the next two weeks which means he can really pick weakened teams for the final two games in the Group and keep key players rested for the busy festive period to come in the Premier League.
Chelsea have not been dominant winners in either game they have played as far as the scoreboard has been concerned, but they have missed a host of chances.
On Thursday it is a chance for players to stake their claim in Sarri's plans for the months ahead as he will look to rotate his squad. Those players have yet to really impress as the manager would have liked, but Chelsea could prove to be far too strong for BATE Borisov if they can take the chances they are creating.
BATE Borisov remain the best team coming out of Belarus but they have struggled to compete with the stronger teams they tend to face in the Champions League or Europa League. The 1-4 home loss to PAOK on Match Day 2 has underlined that point and over the last twelve months BATE Borisov have lost heavily at FC Koln, Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven in European away games.
This is a big handicap for Chelsea to cover when you think of the chances they have missed in their previous two Europa League games which have both ended 1-0 to The Blues. However BATE Borisov have conceded at least three goals in each of the four games mentioned above and lost all of those games by at least three goal margins.
Chelsea can become the latest to record a big win over BATE Borisov and I think they will be able to do that on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard won't be available by all accounts, but that should not matter for Chelsea this weekend and I think they cover the big Asian Handicap.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Pick: When the draw was this Europa League Group was made you would have thought Marseille and Lazio, two teams who reached at least the Quarter Final of the competition last season, would have been leading the way through to the Last 32.
Instead it is Eintracht Frankfurt who have won both games against those much fancied sides and now have a double header against the outsiders in the Group, Apollon.
The Cypriot side need to be respected having come from 0-2 down to earn a draw with Marseille on Match Day 2, but that was played at home and it is a real challenge for them when they visit Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt are just outside the elite teams in the Bundesliga, but they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that makes them dangerous. The last three home games have all ended in wins and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 15 goals in those games with at least four scored in each one including in the 4-1 win over Lazio on Match Day 2.
There should be too much firepower for the home team again in this Europa League game and they will want to keep the momentum behind them having won 4 in a row in all competitions.
Apollon have lost 6 of their last 7 away Europa League games, although only two of those have come by two or more goals. However they needed an injury time goal to prevent that happening at Lazio on Match Day 1 and I think they struggle to contain their hosts here so backing Eintracht Frankfurt for a big win has to be the call.
Rangers v Spartak Moscow Pick: When the draw was made for the Europa League Group Stage it did look like a section in which Rangers would find it very difficult to move on to the Knock Out Rounds.
Steven Gerrard had already surpassed some expectations by taking Rangers through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group, but the start made to the section will have the fans believing their European adventure is far from over.
Rangers have earned an important point in Spain against Villarreal and then came from behind to deservedly beat Rapid Vienna at Ibrox on Match Day 2. That means they come into this double header with Spartak Moscow on top of the Group and I do think they can continue the positive momentum with another win at home.
In recent games Rangers have been dominant at Ibrox Stadium with their last 5 wins coming during a period in which they have scored at least three goals in each victory. That is the kind of pressure that could crack Spartak Moscow, although the Russian club have a lot more experience in European Football in recent years compared with their hosts.
Spartak Moscow have underachieved in this Group so far and their continued struggles away from home in European competition cannot be ignored. Losing games at PAOK and Rapid Vienna should be a big disappointment for Spartak Moscow and they have won just 1 of their last 13 away European games.
One Russian club has already lost in this part of Glasgow and I think Rangers can win this fixture as long as they not distracted by the upcoming League Cup Semi Final to be played on Sunday. I don't think Steven Gerrard will be allowing that to happen and I do think Rangers current home form makes it hard to make a case against them continuing their positive run.
Of course their hosts are more experienced, but Spartak Moscow have conceded plenty of away goals in recent games and especially in European competition. Backing Rangers on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw and I will back the home team in that market.
Leipzig v Celtic Pick: The last couple of years have seen Celtic negotiate the tough Champions League Qualifying Rounds to make it through to the Group Stage of that competition, but this year they are going to find it difficult to reach the Knock Out Rounds in the Europa League.
As soon as the draw was made it was clear Celtic were in for a real challenge to get out of a section containing Salzburg and Leipzig who both impressed in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds last season.
Celtic play with commitment and the tactics used by Brendan Rodgers means they will want to get on the front foot and cause problems for their hosts in this Group game. They have shown they can score goals even at the very best teams having done that in Paris against PSG last season and also leading at Salzburg in this Group.
However it is going to be very difficult to contain a team like Leipzig who have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 home games and have unsurprisingly won 3 of those. Leipzig had also won 5 straight home games in Europe before losing 2-3 to Salzburg on Match Day 1 and this is a team with a lot more experience of playing in European competition compared with twelve months ago.
If you take away the Qualifying Rounds, Celtic have conceded three times in 4 of their last 5 European away games under Rodgers and that makes it tough to win games. I think Leipzig are going to prove to have too much firepower for the Scottish Champions in this fixture at home and I am going to back the Bundesliga club to cover the Asian Handicap.
Sporting v Arsenal Pick: The hard work may already have been done by Arsenal as they bid to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League, but Unai Emery will want to wrap up a spot as soon as possible. That could be important with a very busy fixture list in the Premier League to come and so getting additional rest for key players is what Arsenal will be looking for.
Winning games against Vorskla and Qarabag are decent enough results for Arsenal but a trip to Sporting was looking like the toughest test in the Group as soon as the draw was made.
The form shown by Arsenal has been impressive and has to be the main reason they are such a short price to win in the Portuguese capital. However this is a fixture coming at a difficult time for The Gunners and it would not be a big surprise if a number of key players are rested for the Premier League game against Crystal Palace which is played on Sunday.
That will make Sporting an appealing price, but I also think the home team are being underestimated in this one. They have won 14 of their last 16 home games in all competitions and Sporting have also won 5 of their last 7 home Europa League games including beating Atletico Madrid here in the Quarter Final last season.
Arsenal have been scoring plenty of goals which makes them dangerous, but I think this is a very tough game for them if they are resting some of their key players. A draw would likely be a result that Unai Emery would accept right now knowing a home win against Sporting in two weeks time will see them control the Group, but I also think Sporting can cause plenty of problems for their visitors too.
Backing the home team to avoid a defeat looks tempting enough here.
Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux Pick: In all of the European Groups being played this week it is clear that home form is going to be very important and determine which teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which could miss out.
Over recent years Zenit St Petersburg have really taken that to heart and they have been very good in front of their own fans.
On Thursday Zenit St Petersburg could move into a very strong position in this Group if they can see off Bordeaux, but you do have to consider how much stock the club are putting into the Europa League. After eleven games in the Russian Premier League Zenit St Petersburg are leading the table by 6 points and winning the title is clearly the biggest ambition they will have this season.
Zenit St Petersburg can put the Europa League to the back of their mind if they can take 4 points from Bordeaux over the next couple of weeks though and I think the players will know that.
They are facing a team who have lost both games in this Group, albeit narrowly, and who have not travelled well in Europe outside of the early Qualifying Rounds. Bordeaux have been inconsistent domestically and have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions including a 2-0 defeat at Montpellier last weekend.
This is a long journey for a team from Western Europe to be making and I think it will be a forlorn one for Bordeaux. The home price is not exactly going to get the pulse racing, but Zenit St Petersburg should be too strong for Bordeaux and can pick up the three points here.
Zurich v Leverkusen Pick: Both Zurich and Bayer Leverkusen have won their opening two Europa League Group games which has put them in a very strong position in this section before of a double header against one another.
They have done it in contrasting fashion with Zurich winning both games 1-0, while Leverkusen have scored at least three times in their wins.
I can see this one developing into an attacking game with neither team having much to lose. Zurich will look to be defensively resolute but they are facing a higher quality opponent who are going to get forward and try and score goals. That may mean Zurich have some opportunities on the counter attack in this one, but it will be difficult to contain Leverkusen too and so goals looks to be the order of the day.
This past weekend Zurich drew 3-3 at home with Young Boys so Bayer Leverkusen will believe they can score goals here and I do think they share out at least three on the night.
Besiktas v Genk Pick: With a Group containing all four teams locked on three points the double headers on Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are going to be huge to begin separating the four teams.
That is certainly what Besiktas and Genk will feel with both teams looking to secure four points from the two games against each other to put themselves in a strong position in the section.
Home advantage should be a key factor in both of the games coming up over the next two weeks and this week it is Besiktas who have that edge.
I think that will be all important with Besiktas winning 8 of their last 11 home European games and I do think they will do enough to edge out a tough Genk outfit. Genk have to be respected having just a strong run of 20 wins from their last 23 games in all competitions, but they were beaten in Norway last time out against an out of form Sarpsborg team and this is a big step up against a club who reached the Last 16 of the Champions League a few months ago.
Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the best play with half the stake returned in the event of a draw and that is down to the respect that is offered to Genk.
Chelsea v BATE Borisov Pick: The Europa League has not always been a competition Maurizio Sarri has taken really seriously, but he has seen his Napoli team have some success in it. There is an increased expectation on him at Chelsea as he looks to restore the club to the Champions League and early team selections in this Group suggests the Italian is keen to keep a second avenue into the Champions League alive.
Back to back wins to open the Group Stage has put Chelsea in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 32. Maurizio Sarri will be keen to wrap up that place over the next two weeks which means he can really pick weakened teams for the final two games in the Group and keep key players rested for the busy festive period to come in the Premier League.
Chelsea have not been dominant winners in either game they have played as far as the scoreboard has been concerned, but they have missed a host of chances.
On Thursday it is a chance for players to stake their claim in Sarri's plans for the months ahead as he will look to rotate his squad. Those players have yet to really impress as the manager would have liked, but Chelsea could prove to be far too strong for BATE Borisov if they can take the chances they are creating.
BATE Borisov remain the best team coming out of Belarus but they have struggled to compete with the stronger teams they tend to face in the Champions League or Europa League. The 1-4 home loss to PAOK on Match Day 2 has underlined that point and over the last twelve months BATE Borisov have lost heavily at FC Koln, Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven in European away games.
This is a big handicap for Chelsea to cover when you think of the chances they have missed in their previous two Europa League games which have both ended 1-0 to The Blues. However BATE Borisov have conceded at least three goals in each of the four games mentioned above and lost all of those games by at least three goal margins.
Chelsea can become the latest to record a big win over BATE Borisov and I think they will be able to do that on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard won't be available by all accounts, but that should not matter for Chelsea this weekend and I think they cover the big Asian Handicap.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Pick: When the draw was this Europa League Group was made you would have thought Marseille and Lazio, two teams who reached at least the Quarter Final of the competition last season, would have been leading the way through to the Last 32.
Instead it is Eintracht Frankfurt who have won both games against those much fancied sides and now have a double header against the outsiders in the Group, Apollon.
The Cypriot side need to be respected having come from 0-2 down to earn a draw with Marseille on Match Day 2, but that was played at home and it is a real challenge for them when they visit Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt are just outside the elite teams in the Bundesliga, but they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that makes them dangerous. The last three home games have all ended in wins and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 15 goals in those games with at least four scored in each one including in the 4-1 win over Lazio on Match Day 2.
There should be too much firepower for the home team again in this Europa League game and they will want to keep the momentum behind them having won 4 in a row in all competitions.
Apollon have lost 6 of their last 7 away Europa League games, although only two of those have come by two or more goals. However they needed an injury time goal to prevent that happening at Lazio on Match Day 1 and I think they struggle to contain their hosts here so backing Eintracht Frankfurt for a big win has to be the call.
Rangers v Spartak Moscow Pick: When the draw was made for the Europa League Group Stage it did look like a section in which Rangers would find it very difficult to move on to the Knock Out Rounds.
Steven Gerrard had already surpassed some expectations by taking Rangers through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group, but the start made to the section will have the fans believing their European adventure is far from over.
Rangers have earned an important point in Spain against Villarreal and then came from behind to deservedly beat Rapid Vienna at Ibrox on Match Day 2. That means they come into this double header with Spartak Moscow on top of the Group and I do think they can continue the positive momentum with another win at home.
In recent games Rangers have been dominant at Ibrox Stadium with their last 5 wins coming during a period in which they have scored at least three goals in each victory. That is the kind of pressure that could crack Spartak Moscow, although the Russian club have a lot more experience in European Football in recent years compared with their hosts.
Spartak Moscow have underachieved in this Group so far and their continued struggles away from home in European competition cannot be ignored. Losing games at PAOK and Rapid Vienna should be a big disappointment for Spartak Moscow and they have won just 1 of their last 13 away European games.
One Russian club has already lost in this part of Glasgow and I think Rangers can win this fixture as long as they not distracted by the upcoming League Cup Semi Final to be played on Sunday. I don't think Steven Gerrard will be allowing that to happen and I do think Rangers current home form makes it hard to make a case against them continuing their positive run.
Of course their hosts are more experienced, but Spartak Moscow have conceded plenty of away goals in recent games and especially in European competition. Backing Rangers on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw and I will back the home team in that market.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Club Brugge-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 3 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zurich-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leipzig - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zurich-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 18-19-1, - 0.28 Units (74 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
WTA Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 23rd)
The WTA Finals has seen four matches played to open the Group Stage and all four of those matches have been won by the underdog.
On Tuesday we move onto the second round robin of matches in the Red Group with the two winners and two losing players from Sunday's opening matches playing one another.
It means we are almost certainly going to get at least one Semi Finalist confirmed, while the player with two losses on their record are going to find it very difficult to progress. The first match up on Tuesday is the two losing players from Sunday and that looks a tough match to call with Petra Kvitova holding the mental edge from the head to head with Caroline Wozniacki.
However my feeling remains the conditions in Singapore will suit Wozniacki more than Kvitova, although I was also convinced she would have been set as the underdog rather than the healthy favourite.
The second match is where my selection will come from on Tuesday- Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova both upset the odds with their wins on Sunday and I think the underdog could win the match which is almost a pick 'em contest.
Svitolina has won the last two matches between the players and I think the court speed will be in her favour here barring a huge serving day from Pliskova.
There are also some doubts about Pliskova's health as she played with a strong strapping in her win over Wozniacki, a match she had dominated.
However I think Svitolina is going to edge this match and I will back her as the underdog to do that.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 3-2, + 2.02 Units (10 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
On Tuesday we move onto the second round robin of matches in the Red Group with the two winners and two losing players from Sunday's opening matches playing one another.
It means we are almost certainly going to get at least one Semi Finalist confirmed, while the player with two losses on their record are going to find it very difficult to progress. The first match up on Tuesday is the two losing players from Sunday and that looks a tough match to call with Petra Kvitova holding the mental edge from the head to head with Caroline Wozniacki.
However my feeling remains the conditions in Singapore will suit Wozniacki more than Kvitova, although I was also convinced she would have been set as the underdog rather than the healthy favourite.
The second match is where my selection will come from on Tuesday- Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova both upset the odds with their wins on Sunday and I think the underdog could win the match which is almost a pick 'em contest.
Svitolina has won the last two matches between the players and I think the court speed will be in her favour here barring a huge serving day from Pliskova.
There are also some doubts about Pliskova's health as she played with a strong strapping in her win over Wozniacki, a match she had dominated.
However I think Svitolina is going to edge this match and I will back her as the underdog to do that.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 3-2, + 2.02 Units (10 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Monday, 22 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 22nd)
The WTA Finals got underway on Sunday and the two matches were both won by the underdogs as Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova stole a march on Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki.
Unlike every other tournament played on the Tennis Tour this does not mean the end of the event for Kvitova and Wozniacki, but they have been put in a precarious spot after both were beaten in straight sets and both won six games in their defeats.
While still alive now, the losing player on Tuesday is going to be virtually out of the WTA Finals, but the winner will stay alive and look to move through to the Semi Final when they play their final match on Thursday.
Those four players make up the White Group, but it is the Red Group which gets underway on Monday. All of the players in this Group have to believe in their ability to make it through to the Semi Finals in Singapore later this week, but that also means there is some pressure to perform from the start of the tournament instead of needing to play catch up.
First up is the match between the last two US Open Champions who are also making their debut in the WTA Finals and that is before the current Wimbledon Champion takes to the court.
On Monday it is also the start of the two ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna which begin First Round matches having seen the Qualifying matches played over the weekend. There are some big names from the ATP Tour who will be playing this week as we get closer to the end of the 2018 season and places at the World Tour Finals are still up for grabs.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have won the last two US Open titles and both Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens have deserved their place in the WTA Finals after strong showings in 2018.
Last season it was difficult for Sloane Stephens to follow up her success at the US Open which really came out of left field after the American had only recently returned from an injury. It took a few months for Stephens to appreciate her new status on the Tour and the target that had appeared on her back for other players, but she began to cope earlier in 2018 and that has seen her have success including reaching another Grand Slam Final.
Stephens was a surprise winner of the US Open in 2017 and her opponent Naomi Osaka has to be considered a surprise winner of the US Open in 2018. The Final may be best remembered for the Serena Williams meltdown which overshadowed Osaka's win, but the composure shown by the youngster that day should have given us an idea as to how she would react as a Grand Slam Champion.
So many other players have won a maiden Grand Slam and struggled to cope with the pressure that comes with reaching that kind of level. However that has not been the case for Osaka who has produced a lot of wins during the Asian hard court swing and who should be happy to compete in Singapore on the hard courts which look to be her most dangerous surface up to now.
The last couple of months has really seen Osaka pick up her game and she has been able to break down opponents with her big hitting. Her numbers on the hard courts have been impressive throughout 2018 and that makes Osaka very dangerous here in Singapore, but those numbers have taken a sharp upturn over the last six weeks since the beginning of the US Open.
In that time Osaka has improved the percentage of points won on both first and second serve while also improving her returning numbers. All of that doesn't bode well for Stephens who has 2-4 record on the hard courts since the end of the US Open.
The American has won a title in Miami and reached the Final in Montreal as well as the Quarter Final in the defence of the US Open. That is impressive stuff from Stephens, but the season has not wound down as she would like and I think Osaka can get the better of her here with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: A relatively poor 2017 saw Angelique Kerber miss out on playing in Singapore, but the Wimbledon Champion is back this year and this is the kind of hard court that should suit her game.
You would think winning Wimbledon would mean Kerber is coming into the WTA Finals with some confidence and comfort with her game. That may not exactly be the case after the decision was made to part with Coach Wim Fissette just days before the final tournament of the 2018 season was due to begin and I wonder if that is going to be a negative factor for her.
At least Kerber has some experience of this tournament format which is not the case for the other three players in the White Group. First up for Kerber is Kiki Bertens who has benefited from the decisions made by Simona Halep and Serena Williams to skip the WTA Finals with injuries ending their seasons earlie than expected.
Getting to the WTA Finals is a huge achievement for Kiki Bertens who has produced some solid tennis outside of the clay courts in the 2018 season. Her numbers on this surface had not been the most impressive earlier in 2018, but she has been very strong over the last three months and Bertens has regularly played tight matches with Kerber.
There is every chance this could be another very competitive match as long as Bertens isn't affected by nerves in playing alongside the top eight players for the first time. It shouldn't be something that bothers the Dutchwoman and a strong serving day should see her keep this one close against Kerber who has not played a lot of tennis over the last seven weeks.
Like Kerber, I think Bertens is going to appreciate the conditions in Singapore and this could be enough games for her to be competitive.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Unlike every other tournament played on the Tennis Tour this does not mean the end of the event for Kvitova and Wozniacki, but they have been put in a precarious spot after both were beaten in straight sets and both won six games in their defeats.
While still alive now, the losing player on Tuesday is going to be virtually out of the WTA Finals, but the winner will stay alive and look to move through to the Semi Final when they play their final match on Thursday.
Those four players make up the White Group, but it is the Red Group which gets underway on Monday. All of the players in this Group have to believe in their ability to make it through to the Semi Finals in Singapore later this week, but that also means there is some pressure to perform from the start of the tournament instead of needing to play catch up.
First up is the match between the last two US Open Champions who are also making their debut in the WTA Finals and that is before the current Wimbledon Champion takes to the court.
On Monday it is also the start of the two ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna which begin First Round matches having seen the Qualifying matches played over the weekend. There are some big names from the ATP Tour who will be playing this week as we get closer to the end of the 2018 season and places at the World Tour Finals are still up for grabs.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have won the last two US Open titles and both Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens have deserved their place in the WTA Finals after strong showings in 2018.
Last season it was difficult for Sloane Stephens to follow up her success at the US Open which really came out of left field after the American had only recently returned from an injury. It took a few months for Stephens to appreciate her new status on the Tour and the target that had appeared on her back for other players, but she began to cope earlier in 2018 and that has seen her have success including reaching another Grand Slam Final.
Stephens was a surprise winner of the US Open in 2017 and her opponent Naomi Osaka has to be considered a surprise winner of the US Open in 2018. The Final may be best remembered for the Serena Williams meltdown which overshadowed Osaka's win, but the composure shown by the youngster that day should have given us an idea as to how she would react as a Grand Slam Champion.
So many other players have won a maiden Grand Slam and struggled to cope with the pressure that comes with reaching that kind of level. However that has not been the case for Osaka who has produced a lot of wins during the Asian hard court swing and who should be happy to compete in Singapore on the hard courts which look to be her most dangerous surface up to now.
The last couple of months has really seen Osaka pick up her game and she has been able to break down opponents with her big hitting. Her numbers on the hard courts have been impressive throughout 2018 and that makes Osaka very dangerous here in Singapore, but those numbers have taken a sharp upturn over the last six weeks since the beginning of the US Open.
In that time Osaka has improved the percentage of points won on both first and second serve while also improving her returning numbers. All of that doesn't bode well for Stephens who has 2-4 record on the hard courts since the end of the US Open.
The American has won a title in Miami and reached the Final in Montreal as well as the Quarter Final in the defence of the US Open. That is impressive stuff from Stephens, but the season has not wound down as she would like and I think Osaka can get the better of her here with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: A relatively poor 2017 saw Angelique Kerber miss out on playing in Singapore, but the Wimbledon Champion is back this year and this is the kind of hard court that should suit her game.
You would think winning Wimbledon would mean Kerber is coming into the WTA Finals with some confidence and comfort with her game. That may not exactly be the case after the decision was made to part with Coach Wim Fissette just days before the final tournament of the 2018 season was due to begin and I wonder if that is going to be a negative factor for her.
At least Kerber has some experience of this tournament format which is not the case for the other three players in the White Group. First up for Kerber is Kiki Bertens who has benefited from the decisions made by Simona Halep and Serena Williams to skip the WTA Finals with injuries ending their seasons earlie than expected.
Getting to the WTA Finals is a huge achievement for Kiki Bertens who has produced some solid tennis outside of the clay courts in the 2018 season. Her numbers on this surface had not been the most impressive earlier in 2018, but she has been very strong over the last three months and Bertens has regularly played tight matches with Kerber.
There is every chance this could be another very competitive match as long as Bertens isn't affected by nerves in playing alongside the top eight players for the first time. It shouldn't be something that bothers the Dutchwoman and a strong serving day should see her keep this one close against Kerber who has not played a lot of tennis over the last seven weeks.
Like Kerber, I think Bertens is going to appreciate the conditions in Singapore and this could be enough games for her to be competitive.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)