It has been a difficult week for Manchester United fans after seeing the side lose at Brighton for the second season in a row. I wrote a small piece about United prior to the fixture at the Amex Stadium which can be read here.
With the defeat behind them the pressure has increased of Jose Mourinho and the club in general with many questioning the ambition, or lack of ambition, seemingly displayed in the summer transfer window. A loss to Tottenham Hotspur could lead to a major meltdown at Old Trafford and that is a huge fixture to be played on Monday evening.
The rest of the Premier League fixtures are played before Bank Holiday Monday and there are a number of teams looking to extend their 100% starts to the new seasons. Others are searching for the first points of the new season and the next couple of weeks are very important to some managers knowing the international break could be seen as a big chance to make changes if owners have lost faith in the men in charge.
Onto the Football Picks from this weekend's schedule.
Wolves v Manchester City Pick: The first game of this Round of matches in the Premier League comes from Molineux on Saturday afternoon and the television cameras will be in town as Wolves host the Champions Manchester City. The start made by Manchester City will only have encouraged the belief they can win back to back Premier League titles and become the first club to do that in a decade.
Even the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has not affected the way Manchester City have been able to dominate the first two opponents they have played. With a kind fixture list in front of them, Manchester City could make a start similar to last season which put their rivals in a very difficult position by the time we got around to Christmas, but this is not an easy game.
Wolves were a little disappointing against Everton in the 2-2 draw to open the season and I am not sure they win that match if their visitors don't lose Phil Jagielka to a sending off in the first half. They were much better against Leicester City and should have perhaps got more than the 2-0 defeat they suffered, but I would be a little concerned with the amount of goals and chances conceded.
Last season Wolves finished with the joint best defence in the Championship, but the step up in class is going to be hard to manage. While they did earn a 0-0 draw with Manchester City in the League Cup, the pressures are much different in a League game and I do think Wolves are going to need some luck to avoid a loss here.
The home team only lost twice at home in the League last season, but Everton showed they can be got at. This time they face a very strong Manchester City attack and I think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Pep Guardiola's men won 9 of their 19 away League games by more than a single goal margin last season.
Manchester City already won comfortably at Arsenal in the Premier League and a confident group of players can expose some of the Wolves defensive shortcomings in this one. I wouldn't be massively surprised if Wolves are able to play their part with their quality attacking players, but I think the issue is going to be that they won't have the bite to contain the Manchester City attackers and I am going to back the current Champions to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a tough introduction to life as a Premier League manager for Unai Emery, but Arsenal fans shouldn't be overly concerned in my opinion. Losing to Manchester City at home and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is disappointing, but both clubs will be tough tests for the very best teams in the Premier League.
The Gunners showed enough positives in both matches to think they will not drop from the recent standards set by the club. It will take time for Emery to get his methods really set in at Arsenal, but he has to stick to his guns as Arsenal get set to face a number of weaker teams.
First up is West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium and The Hammers have had a difficult time under Manuel Pellegrini despite all of the optimism they came into the season with. Back to back losses will knock confidence of players and fans especially West Ham United's 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth in a Premier League game they were leading.
Defensively West Ham United have looked a mess at times and I expect this Arsenal team to create plenty of chances. They did that at Stamford Bridge last Saturday and there is no doubting Arsenal have players who are capable of blowing away some of the weaker teams in the Premier League.
Last season they won all 14 games played against teams below them in the League table at the Emirates Stadium and Arsenal have a very strong record against West Ham United. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham United scored in this one, but they look very poor at the back and Arsenal can match the big margin of victory they secured in this corresponding fixture last season.
Emery's tactics will give West Ham United opportunities, but the manager will stick with his principles and Arsenal have enough through the midfield and attacking areas to punish this side. Both Emery and Pellegrini had to know there would be some teething problems at their new clubs, but this is a good chance for Arsenal to get their first win of the new season and I think they will earn this victory.
If Arsenal play anything near how they did in the first half at Stamford Bridge, they should have the opportunities to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.
Bournemouth v Everton Pick: Both Bournemouth and Everton have to be very happy with the starts they have made to the new Premier League season and I have no doubt that both clubs feel they can keep that going this weekend.
Bournemouth have be a surprise considering they were tipped up as a dark horse for relegation in a number of pre-season previews. 2 wins out of 2 will change some opinions, but Eddie Howe is likely to be very aware that West Brom won their opening 2 Premier League games last season and still finished bottom of the League table.
With that in mind Howe will be looking for Bournemouth to keep their positive run going which has picked up from where they left last season. Bournemouth have won 4 straight Premier League games, but Everton look to be a big test for any team in the form they have displayed under Marco Silva.
It took a little longer than they would have hoped to appoint Silva, but it looks to be a decision that the owners have got right as Everton bid to make big strides up the League table compared with last season. The performances against Wolves and Southampton suggests Everton can be very dangerous this weekend against a Bournemouth team who have offered up some big opportunities for their opponents in their 2 wins this season.
However I expect Bournemouth to be encouraged by the chances Everton have allowed to be created against them and I do think it will be a very good game of football. Both League fixtures finished with three goals shared between these teams last season and goals have flowed in their early Premier League games this time around.
There have been enough chances created by both and now they face two defences who have struggled which suggests Bournemouth and Everton can reach at least three goals shared out here.
Huddersfield Town v Cardiff City Pick: It might only be August, but you already have the feeling that both David Wagner and Neil Warnock will know how important a fixture like this one is for their Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City teams.
Both teams will likely be fighting to avoid relegation all season and these two teams went into the 2018/19 season as the leading two teams for relegation as far as the bookmakers were concerned.
The early results and performances will be a concern for both managers and there are issues to address. At least Huddersfield Town can say they have played two of the best teams in the Premier League and are where they would have expected to be after a couple of games, while Cardiff City have yet to score despite playing the likes of Bournemouth and Newcastle United who could be considered potential relegation candidates too.
I do think this could be a very tight match with very little between them and the layers have a similar feeling judging by the prices. Huddersfield Town did lay the foundations for their 2017/18 season in beating those teams around them at home in the Premier League and that has to be respected, but I do worry about the lack of goals in the side.
5 of the 6 home wins secured by Huddersfield Town in the League last season came against teams who finished 10th or lower in the table. That is going to be the key for them again, but the confidence can't be in a great position after two heavy losses and Cardiff City haven't been that far away from earning more than the single point they have secured so far.
Cardiff City have had a couple of very strong wins at Huddersfield Town in their most recent meetings here including two years ago when The Terriers secured promotion to the Premier League. Backing The Bluebirds to avoid defeat looks a tempting price especially if they can take the couple of big chances the have created and I will back Neil Warnock's men to add to the point they earned against Newcastle United last Saturday.
Southampton v Leicester City Pick: This is a very interesting match on Saturday afternoon as two sets of fans could probably sit down together and have a right good moan about manager Claude Puel. Neither Southampton fans or Leicester City fans really got behind their manager although Puel remains in charge of the latter and will be looking to guide his new team to another impressive win at St Mary's.
Life is made that much more difficult for him after Jamie Vardy's sending off last weekend which means the England international will not be available this weekend. With Riyad Mahrez moved on and Shinji Okazaki a doubt, Leicester City could potentially be short of goals this weekend as they look to build on their 2-0 win over Wolves.
Leicester City were a little fortunate in that victory and Southampton will feel they can get the better of an opponent missing key attacking pieces.
So far it has not been the best of starts for Mark Hughes and his team with just a single point on the board. Scoring goals looks to be a continued problem for Southampton who managed just 37 in the whole of last season, but the positive side is Danny Ings getting off the mark in the 2-1 defeat at Everton last weekend.
Home advantage should be key in deciding the outcome of this fixture despite the 1-4 win Leicester City had here last season. The Foxes have been in poor form on their travels in the Premier League with 4 straight away losses going back to last season while Southampton did improve at home under Mark Hughes.
1 win in 4 home games under Hughes might not indicate that, but Southampton did lead Chelsea 2-0 in one game that ended 2-3 to the London club, and Manchester City needed an injury time goal to win here too. Southampton weren't at their best in their goalless draw with Burnley to open the season, but there is more to come from them in my opinion and backing them on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture looks the way to go.
Liverpool v Brighton Pick: There will be much excitement on Merseyside with the start that Liverpool have made to the new Premier League season, but they have yet to gain any points from last season. Making up the big gap to Manchester City will mean either hoping the Champions drop off from the standards set, which looks unlikely on their current form, or Liverpool finding points where they dropped them last time around.
This is another fixture that Liverpool won last season and they will be big favourites to see off Brighton having crushed them 4-0 at Anfield on the last day of the season. On current form it will be very difficult to imagine anything but another comfortable win for Liverpool who have created some top opportunities in the first couple of games and have players who can punish Brighton.
All the credit has to be given to Brighton for beating Manchester United last weekend, but defensively they have a lot of work to do and will miss Lewis Dunk this Saturday. Watford created plenty of good chances against them in a comfortable 2-0 win at Vicarage Road and Brighton have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.
I expect Chris Hughton will want to set his side up to be hard to beat, but Liverpool are playing with too much confidence at the moment. If they score early it could be a very long day in the office for Brighton and I do think the home team will record another comfortable win to keep the positive momentum going.
It is a big Asian Handicap for Liverpool to cover, but they would have covered it in 8 of their 19 home League games last season. The worst case scenario here is that the result ends in a push as far as I am concerned and I will back Liverpool to cover and earn the same three points they did against Brighton at the end of the 2017/18 season.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: This does look an intriguing live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon with two teams who have made positive starts to the new season.
Watford have really impressed in beating Brighton and Burnley and they look like a side that is going to have plenty to avoid relegation. Creating chances and limiting the threat posed by opponents means Watford have been well deserved of the six points they have earned and they will come into this one with confidence.
They may not have the greatest home record against Crystal Palace in recent years, but the first couple of games suggest they can break that run. 3 of the last 4 games at Vicarage Road between these clubs have ended in draws, but Watford might be playing at the top of their level right now which makes them hard to oppose.
I have plenty of respect for Roy Hodgson and his Crystal Palace team too having already won at Fulham this season and having won 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games. The counter attacking nature of this team certainly makes them look one that can be very effective on their travels and Watford will have to respect that.
However I think Crystal Palace were a touch fortunate to win at Fulham with the home team missing a number of chances and The Eagles taking the opportunities that came their way. They have a player who can take his limited chances in Wilfried Zaha and that makes Crystal Palace dangerous, but Watford look to be in the better form to open the season and with home advantage I give them the edge.
The 7 game home run without a win over Crystal Palace is a concern, but I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market. They have created much more than Crystal Palace and they have looked the more secure in defensive positions in the early part of the Premier League season and I will look for them to continue their run and take a huge step towards the 40 point mark they aim for every season and all before we complete the first month of the 2018/19 campaign.
Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: The second live game on Sunday afternoon from the Premier League is one that has taken on something of epic proportions for Chelsea fans with the struggles their team have had at St James' Park over the years. Even Championship winning teams have struggled to find their best form at this ground, but the current Chelsea team may not have a better chance to snap a poor run of 5 visits without a win and knowing 4 of those have ended in losses.
Newcastle United will be kicking themselves for not winning at Cardiff City last weekend and Rafa Benitez continues to voice his disappointment of the lack of funds available to him. There is nothing he can do until January, but Newcastle United might need some of the strong management the Spaniard has shown to make sure they are not in a perilous position when the next transfer window opens.
The big question for this Newcastle United team is whether they can find enough goals to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. The signing of Solomon Rondon isn't exactly one that has the fans whetting their appetite for an avalanche of goals, but this team have created the chance to have scored more than the single goal managed in the first two League games.
With a Chelsea team still learning what is required of them by their new manager there will be chances for Newcastle United. Chelsea have struggled defensively at times and Maurizio Sarri will insist his team continue to take some chances by building from the back so the home team here should have opportunities.
However the bigger issue for Rafa Benitez is making sure his team are much better defensively than they have been. The 47 goals conceded last season were the 7th best in the Premier League and that is a key foundation from which Newcastle United can build and earn the points they need to avoid relegation.
The first two performances have not indicated Newcastle United will be as strong defensively as they were last season and that is a worry against a Sarri led Chelsea. As much as The Blues need to improve at the back, they have looked threatening going forward and have the attacking options to cause plenty of problems on a ground where they have struggled.
That was factored in and prevented me from being too confident in taking Newcastle United with the start on the Asian Handicap. The one goal start could lead to a push at best, but these two teams look capable of creating chances in this League game and pushes me towards at least three goals being shared out.
All 3 games between Chelsea and Newcastle United hit that number in the 2017/18 season, while 5 of the last 6 at St James' Park have seen at least three goals shared out between these teams. With the attackers likely to have the better of the defenders in this one, I will back at least three goals to be scored in the second of the live offerings from Sunday afternoon.
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: We have already seen matches involving the top six teams from last season facing one another, but this is the first time two of the four Champions League entrants will play one another in the new season.
Tottenham Hotspur come into this fixture on Bank Holiday Monday in the better form having won back to back Premier League games to open the season. They will know the challenge is to step up when they face the top six clubs though as Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 of their last 10 away games at the current top teams in England of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
It could be said that Tottenham Hotspur couldn't pick a better time to visit Manchester United having lost 4 in a row at Old Trafford especially with the dark clouds that have gathered over this part of Salford.
Those clouds could be broken by the rumoured plane that is going to be carrying an anti-Ed Woodward message on Monday evening as the fans have stuck behind manager Jose Mourinho. The battle lines look to have been drawn up between Woodward, Mourinho and Paul Pogba and there is a fear that it is all going to come crashing down and ruin Manchester United's season before it has really begun.
The 3-2 defeat at Brighton was really disappointing in terms of the performance produced by Manchester United and the mistakes they made at the back were extremely costly. They can't afford to do that against Tottenham Hotspur but Manchester United have stepped up when they have faced the better teams in the Premier League and I do think we see a reaction here.
Manchester United have only lost to Manchester City out of the top six clubs in each of the last two seasons at Old Trafford. Take out the current Champions and Manchester United have actually won 6 of 8 games against Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal at Old Trafford over the last couple of seasons and they also beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final.
That is a positive and the slightly longer time Mourinho will have had to work with his players should produce a positive and also see some key players return. I wouldn't be surprised if Nemanja Matic is fit to give the midfield better balance and the return of Jesse Lingard to the starting line up to replace Juan Mata should be a positive from the attacking point of view.
Defensively United can't be as bad as they were at the Amex Stadium and the players do tend to produce better performances against the better teams. Last season they won 6 of 10 Premier League games against the top six clubs and I am not of the belief the players have downed tools on the manager.
Last weekend Paul Pogba questioned his own attitude as well as that of his team-mates and I think that would have been worked on all week. With Tottenham Hotspur's relatively poor record against the top teams I do think Manchester United look a big price to win this one.
However I will back them on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection and look for Manchester United to edge out Tottenham Hotspur again having beaten them 1-0 in each of the last three seasons at Old Trafford in the Premier League.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 10-8, + 2.98 Units (36 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)
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Friday, 24 August 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (August 24th)
The US Open draw was revealed on Thursday evening and I am going to be breaking down the outright selections on the final Grand Slam of the season by Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday I should have the US Open Day 1 Picks ready to go, but the early thoughts from the tournament coming up is that the women's draw is wide open outside of a very tough First Quarter, while defending Champion Rafael Nadal has to be very confident of his chances to go very deep in the draw.
That's for another day though and today the focus is on the Semi Final matches to be played at ATP Winston Salem and WTA New Haven. Surprisingly I do have three selections from the four matches that are to be played on Friday as I look to round off this week with some solid successes and momentum to take into the US Open beginning this Monday.
Julia Goerges v Aryna Sabalenka: It would be foolish to be anything but impressed with the performances of Aryna Sabalenka who looks like a player that could be a real force on the WTA Tour in the years ahead. The young Belarusian has really enjoyed the hard courts over the last month after a surprising Qualifier defeat in San Jose and she has backed up her Semi Final run at the Cincinnati Premier Event by reaching the same stage here in New Haven.
The big points have really been the key factor for Sabalenka who has held her nerve at important times in matches over the last couple of weeks. That does mean she has won a couple of matches that could have easily gone the other way and there is clearly some room for improvement even though she has produced a solid winning record in that time.
It does have to be acknowledged that Sabalenka has been playing at a much higher standard this week in New Haven compared with Cincinnati and that has resulted in two very strong wins over Sam Stosur and Belinda Bencic. The serve has been huge for her, but Sabalenka still has to be a little better on the return of serve and now she faces Julia Goerges who has been very good on the hard courts.
The serve has always been a big weapon for Goerges and she has actually improved slightly on the numbers she produced in 2017. The German was a little fortunate to get through one match here, but the other two wins in New Haven have seen Goerges playing very well and all of the tennis played by Sabalenka over the last couple of weeks could have an impact on her at some point.
I do think this will be a close match with both players looking to dominate behind serve. It is Goerges who has the slightly superior return game at this moment in their careers and I think that is the key difference in this one and I will back the top ten Ranked player to make it through to the Final.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: Over the last month I have been keen to get behind Daniil Medvedev on a number of occasions and I have to admit he has not really let me down. There continues to be a slight under-appreciation of Medvedev and the kind of tennis he can play on the hard courts, but that may have something to do with the youngster losing a little of the consistency which he had been building up.
The overall numbers produced by Medvedev on the hard courts in 2018 have been significantly improved on what he produced in 2017 and the Russian is 11-3 on the hard courts over the last month. A number of those wins have come in the Qualifiers, but that is the kind of level of opponent he will be facing in this Semi Final.
Taro Daniel has had a strong run in Winston Salem but he has been far from convincing in at least two of his four wins here. You have to credit any player for getting through the matches when they have been as tight as they have been, but Daniel is right to be the underdog in this one.
He can step up his level as he showed when beating Novak Djokovic at the Indian Wells Masters but that is arguably the best win of his career and there has been little sign Daniel can reach that level on any consistent basis. Daniel is holding under 75% of service games on the hard courts in 2018 which puts him under intense pressure all the time on the quicker surfaces, and that is highlighted by the fact he is breaking at under 25% of the time on the return.
Putting those numbers together and you do begin to see it will be difficult for Daniel to maintain strong runs through the draws and he has been far from dominant in Winston Salem as I have already mentioned.
The Medvedev return game has been decent on the hard courts with 38% of return points won on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those numbers get a little better when Medvedev is playing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and I do like the chances of the younger player winning and making it through to the Final with a cover of this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On Thursday I backed Pablo Carreno Busta and Kyle Edmund to win their Quarter Final matches, but Steve Johnson had other ideas. The American had shown very little form to take into the US Open, but he has produced some of his best tennis this week in New Haven and he will certainly be a tough out the rest of the way.
However I continue to insist Pablo Carreno Busta is being under-rated on the hard courts and he has already beaten Johnson in straight sets at the Miami Masters earlier in 2018. They did play a much closer match on the clay courts since then, but Johnson was perhaps a little fortunate that day having saved 11/14 break points in the match and taking his chances to win the second set.
You could argue Johnson is in the middle of his best form of the season on the hard courts having won his three matches as impressively as he has. It is easily the best three consecutive matches he has played on the hard courts since Delray Beach back in February and Johnson has to be playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
The American has to be respected for the big improvement he has made on the return side of his game which makes him more dangerous if he can maintain the numbers on the serve. While the 22% break percentage is perhaps not the greatest number you will see, it is an improvement from Johnson and makes him a player that could cause some problems in the upcoming US Open.
However there had been one or two struggles from Johnson in the last month prior to the week in Winston Salem and now he faces an opponent who is serving as well as at any time in his career. Pablo Carreno Busta was only broken once by Hyeon Chung, a very good returner, in his Quarter Final win and he was under very little pressure for much of the match.
The Spaniard is a very good returner on the hard courts which has sparked his good results on the surface over the last twelve months. I am sure Carreno Busta would like to be a little more clinical with the break point chances he is creating, but even with that in mind I would favour him to win this match and I think he is being a little under-rated in this match.
He was clearly the better player on the day when he beat Johnson in Miami and I will look for Carreno Busta to win and cover in this Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.94 Units (8 Units Staked, + 61.75% Yield)
On Sunday I should have the US Open Day 1 Picks ready to go, but the early thoughts from the tournament coming up is that the women's draw is wide open outside of a very tough First Quarter, while defending Champion Rafael Nadal has to be very confident of his chances to go very deep in the draw.
That's for another day though and today the focus is on the Semi Final matches to be played at ATP Winston Salem and WTA New Haven. Surprisingly I do have three selections from the four matches that are to be played on Friday as I look to round off this week with some solid successes and momentum to take into the US Open beginning this Monday.
Julia Goerges v Aryna Sabalenka: It would be foolish to be anything but impressed with the performances of Aryna Sabalenka who looks like a player that could be a real force on the WTA Tour in the years ahead. The young Belarusian has really enjoyed the hard courts over the last month after a surprising Qualifier defeat in San Jose and she has backed up her Semi Final run at the Cincinnati Premier Event by reaching the same stage here in New Haven.
The big points have really been the key factor for Sabalenka who has held her nerve at important times in matches over the last couple of weeks. That does mean she has won a couple of matches that could have easily gone the other way and there is clearly some room for improvement even though she has produced a solid winning record in that time.
It does have to be acknowledged that Sabalenka has been playing at a much higher standard this week in New Haven compared with Cincinnati and that has resulted in two very strong wins over Sam Stosur and Belinda Bencic. The serve has been huge for her, but Sabalenka still has to be a little better on the return of serve and now she faces Julia Goerges who has been very good on the hard courts.
The serve has always been a big weapon for Goerges and she has actually improved slightly on the numbers she produced in 2017. The German was a little fortunate to get through one match here, but the other two wins in New Haven have seen Goerges playing very well and all of the tennis played by Sabalenka over the last couple of weeks could have an impact on her at some point.
I do think this will be a close match with both players looking to dominate behind serve. It is Goerges who has the slightly superior return game at this moment in their careers and I think that is the key difference in this one and I will back the top ten Ranked player to make it through to the Final.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: Over the last month I have been keen to get behind Daniil Medvedev on a number of occasions and I have to admit he has not really let me down. There continues to be a slight under-appreciation of Medvedev and the kind of tennis he can play on the hard courts, but that may have something to do with the youngster losing a little of the consistency which he had been building up.
The overall numbers produced by Medvedev on the hard courts in 2018 have been significantly improved on what he produced in 2017 and the Russian is 11-3 on the hard courts over the last month. A number of those wins have come in the Qualifiers, but that is the kind of level of opponent he will be facing in this Semi Final.
Taro Daniel has had a strong run in Winston Salem but he has been far from convincing in at least two of his four wins here. You have to credit any player for getting through the matches when they have been as tight as they have been, but Daniel is right to be the underdog in this one.
He can step up his level as he showed when beating Novak Djokovic at the Indian Wells Masters but that is arguably the best win of his career and there has been little sign Daniel can reach that level on any consistent basis. Daniel is holding under 75% of service games on the hard courts in 2018 which puts him under intense pressure all the time on the quicker surfaces, and that is highlighted by the fact he is breaking at under 25% of the time on the return.
Putting those numbers together and you do begin to see it will be difficult for Daniel to maintain strong runs through the draws and he has been far from dominant in Winston Salem as I have already mentioned.
The Medvedev return game has been decent on the hard courts with 38% of return points won on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those numbers get a little better when Medvedev is playing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and I do like the chances of the younger player winning and making it through to the Final with a cover of this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On Thursday I backed Pablo Carreno Busta and Kyle Edmund to win their Quarter Final matches, but Steve Johnson had other ideas. The American had shown very little form to take into the US Open, but he has produced some of his best tennis this week in New Haven and he will certainly be a tough out the rest of the way.
However I continue to insist Pablo Carreno Busta is being under-rated on the hard courts and he has already beaten Johnson in straight sets at the Miami Masters earlier in 2018. They did play a much closer match on the clay courts since then, but Johnson was perhaps a little fortunate that day having saved 11/14 break points in the match and taking his chances to win the second set.
You could argue Johnson is in the middle of his best form of the season on the hard courts having won his three matches as impressively as he has. It is easily the best three consecutive matches he has played on the hard courts since Delray Beach back in February and Johnson has to be playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
The American has to be respected for the big improvement he has made on the return side of his game which makes him more dangerous if he can maintain the numbers on the serve. While the 22% break percentage is perhaps not the greatest number you will see, it is an improvement from Johnson and makes him a player that could cause some problems in the upcoming US Open.
However there had been one or two struggles from Johnson in the last month prior to the week in Winston Salem and now he faces an opponent who is serving as well as at any time in his career. Pablo Carreno Busta was only broken once by Hyeon Chung, a very good returner, in his Quarter Final win and he was under very little pressure for much of the match.
The Spaniard is a very good returner on the hard courts which has sparked his good results on the surface over the last twelve months. I am sure Carreno Busta would like to be a little more clinical with the break point chances he is creating, but even with that in mind I would favour him to win this match and I think he is being a little under-rated in this match.
He was clearly the better player on the day when he beat Johnson in Miami and I will look for Carreno Busta to win and cover in this Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.94 Units (8 Units Staked, + 61.75% Yield)
Thursday, 23 August 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (August 23rd)
We are now just days away from the start of the main draw at the US Open and so this remains a big week for players to get some much needed wins under them.
The WTA event in New Haven featured more players who could go very deep into the draw in New York, but injury and illness have seen some of those now go into the final Grand Slam with some questions to answer.
The ATP event in Winston Salem always felt a very good chance for players to touch up their game and pick up some vital Ranking points ahead of the next Grand Slam. Generally these weeks can be tough to read with players perhaps not as focused as they could be knowing the final Grand Slam of the season is almost set to get underway, but now we have reached the Quarter Final stage of both events you would hope that everyone involved will want to pick up the title and head to New York with some momentum.
Weather permitting there will be at least one day of rest for any players reaching the Final this week before they play their First Round match in New York and so I am confident that the focus will be there for all the players involved on Thursday.
I've only had two Tennis Picks this week because it can be tough to back anyone with a lot of confidence in the final week before a Grand Slam begins. So far it has been a decent return with both of those Picks coming back as winners, but I've made good starts the last couple of weeks and faltered down the stretch which is what I am looking to avoid this week to build some momentum for the US Open.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between these players have been very close over the years with both Petra Kvitova and Carla Suarez Navarro winning five of the ten matches played. They have shared wins on the hard courts despite this being a favoured surface of Kvitova, but that is much to do with the fact that the aggressive Kvitova can be frustrated by the defence of the Spaniard which leads to a lot of errors.
There has been some slippage of the Suarez Navarro return game this year on the hard courts and I do think that will have given the edge to the higher Ranked player.
The Kvitova serve remains a big weapon for the Czech player, but she can still be very inconsistent and there are times when she will go through a number of games making error after error. That is where Suarez Navarro is going to want to take Kvitova, but the decline in the returning numbers is a big problem for the Spaniard and a huge factor in her relatively poor 14-9 record on the hard courts.
One area of significance in this match is how Kvitova is feeling on the return of serve. While her numbers are decent enough, I do think Kvitova can be let down by this part of her game and she has to make sure she puts Suarez Navarro under the kind of pressure Sloane Stephens did when the American beat her comfortably in Montreal.
You don't always know what you are going to get with Kvitova, but I do think she is the kind of player who will either blow away Suarez Navarro or struggle in a surprise defeat. Recent form suggests there have been more good moments from Kvitova and I think she can edge out Suarez Navarro in a straight sets win which should see her have enough break point chances to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: In 2017 Kyle Edmund deservedly got the better of Steve Johnson both here in Winston Salem and also at the US Open and I think the British player can frank that with another win in this Quarter Final. Edmund did drop the first set when they met here at the same stage in Winston Salem in 2017, but he has won the next five sets against Johnson and he has played well enough on the hard courts to get past the home favourite again.
You can't completely ignore the poor record Edmund has had on the hard courts since reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. The struggles at Indian Wells and Miami continued over the last month, but Edmund has produced two strong wins in the Winston Salem tournament which may have restored some of the confidence.
Edmund has been a little unfortunate in a couple of losses where there was very little between him and his opponent, while his serve has been effective enough to think he can keep the pressure on Johnson. There has been an improvement in the Johnson return game which has to be respected, but he struggled to deal with the Edmund serve last year and the forehand to forehand battle is likely to be won by the British player off the ground.
A key for Johnson is going to be getting more out of the serve which remains a big weapon for him. The percentage of points won behind serve on the hard courts have declined over the last four seasons, but Johnson still has a decent enough number to hold between 82% and 86% of games per season in that time. That is a huge number, but Edmund did play very well against Johnson in their two hard court matches twelve months ago and I think he can do the same here against a player who had lost all three hard court matches played over the last month before putting two wins together here in Winston Salem.
I have to respect the fact that their numbers are very similar on the hard courts in 2018, but those two wins Edmund earned last year have to be a factor here. Neither player has faced a tougher opponent than the one standing across the other side of the net on Thursday, but Edmund looks to be on the stronger form all around and I will back him to beat Johnson for a third straight time and also to cover this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Hyeon Chung: The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final.
Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts.
Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled.
You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018.
Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain.
However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one.
I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.37 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)
The WTA event in New Haven featured more players who could go very deep into the draw in New York, but injury and illness have seen some of those now go into the final Grand Slam with some questions to answer.
The ATP event in Winston Salem always felt a very good chance for players to touch up their game and pick up some vital Ranking points ahead of the next Grand Slam. Generally these weeks can be tough to read with players perhaps not as focused as they could be knowing the final Grand Slam of the season is almost set to get underway, but now we have reached the Quarter Final stage of both events you would hope that everyone involved will want to pick up the title and head to New York with some momentum.
Weather permitting there will be at least one day of rest for any players reaching the Final this week before they play their First Round match in New York and so I am confident that the focus will be there for all the players involved on Thursday.
I've only had two Tennis Picks this week because it can be tough to back anyone with a lot of confidence in the final week before a Grand Slam begins. So far it has been a decent return with both of those Picks coming back as winners, but I've made good starts the last couple of weeks and faltered down the stretch which is what I am looking to avoid this week to build some momentum for the US Open.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between these players have been very close over the years with both Petra Kvitova and Carla Suarez Navarro winning five of the ten matches played. They have shared wins on the hard courts despite this being a favoured surface of Kvitova, but that is much to do with the fact that the aggressive Kvitova can be frustrated by the defence of the Spaniard which leads to a lot of errors.
There has been some slippage of the Suarez Navarro return game this year on the hard courts and I do think that will have given the edge to the higher Ranked player.
The Kvitova serve remains a big weapon for the Czech player, but she can still be very inconsistent and there are times when she will go through a number of games making error after error. That is where Suarez Navarro is going to want to take Kvitova, but the decline in the returning numbers is a big problem for the Spaniard and a huge factor in her relatively poor 14-9 record on the hard courts.
One area of significance in this match is how Kvitova is feeling on the return of serve. While her numbers are decent enough, I do think Kvitova can be let down by this part of her game and she has to make sure she puts Suarez Navarro under the kind of pressure Sloane Stephens did when the American beat her comfortably in Montreal.
You don't always know what you are going to get with Kvitova, but I do think she is the kind of player who will either blow away Suarez Navarro or struggle in a surprise defeat. Recent form suggests there have been more good moments from Kvitova and I think she can edge out Suarez Navarro in a straight sets win which should see her have enough break point chances to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: In 2017 Kyle Edmund deservedly got the better of Steve Johnson both here in Winston Salem and also at the US Open and I think the British player can frank that with another win in this Quarter Final. Edmund did drop the first set when they met here at the same stage in Winston Salem in 2017, but he has won the next five sets against Johnson and he has played well enough on the hard courts to get past the home favourite again.
You can't completely ignore the poor record Edmund has had on the hard courts since reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. The struggles at Indian Wells and Miami continued over the last month, but Edmund has produced two strong wins in the Winston Salem tournament which may have restored some of the confidence.
Edmund has been a little unfortunate in a couple of losses where there was very little between him and his opponent, while his serve has been effective enough to think he can keep the pressure on Johnson. There has been an improvement in the Johnson return game which has to be respected, but he struggled to deal with the Edmund serve last year and the forehand to forehand battle is likely to be won by the British player off the ground.
A key for Johnson is going to be getting more out of the serve which remains a big weapon for him. The percentage of points won behind serve on the hard courts have declined over the last four seasons, but Johnson still has a decent enough number to hold between 82% and 86% of games per season in that time. That is a huge number, but Edmund did play very well against Johnson in their two hard court matches twelve months ago and I think he can do the same here against a player who had lost all three hard court matches played over the last month before putting two wins together here in Winston Salem.
I have to respect the fact that their numbers are very similar on the hard courts in 2018, but those two wins Edmund earned last year have to be a factor here. Neither player has faced a tougher opponent than the one standing across the other side of the net on Thursday, but Edmund looks to be on the stronger form all around and I will back him to beat Johnson for a third straight time and also to cover this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Hyeon Chung: The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final.
Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts.
Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled.
You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018.
Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain.
However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one.
I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.37 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 August 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (August 21st)
This is the final week before the fourth Grand Slam of the Tennis season begins in New York and the WTA event in New Haven is clearly the tournament with more contenders playing in it.
The ATP event in Winston Salem has some decent players involved, but the main contenders in New York are all resting up to get ready for an assault on the title. There may not be as many Tennis Picks this week simply because my focus is beginning to turn to the Grand Slam which begins soon, but there may be some good options to play after two pretty poor weeks for the Picks in Canada and Cincinnati.
On Tuesday I begin this week with three Picks from the two tournaments being played.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: Both of these young players have produced some very good tennis on the hard courts over the last month which will give them some confidence to take into the final Grand Slam of the season. However for both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will see the week in Winston Salem as the chance to add some much needed World Ranking points which can stand them in good stead over the next twelve months.
Some could argue that both of these players should be looking at this week as arguably being even more important than the upcoming US Open. There is no guessing what kind of draw unseeded players like Medvedev and De Minaur will receive in New York so winning this match and moving deep into the event here is very important to them.
I don't think it could be a big surprise that both Medvedev and De Minaur have been so inconsistent in 2018. The latter has reached two Finals at this level on the hard courts which is very impressive, but De Minaur has not really had a big impact in any other event outside of Sydney and Washington, especially when it comes to the hard courts.
This does feel like it is going to be a very close match with their numbers on the hard courts being very similar over the course of 2018. One of the differences between them on the day could be the fact that Daniil Medvedev has already won one match in the tournament while the Seeded Alex De Minaur received a bye through to the Second Round.
Having some familiarity with the conditions will be a boost to the Russian underdog and he does have the slightly better numbers than De Minaur over the course of the season. The Medvedev form has been good and I think he can overturn the expectations from the odds and that is by winning this match as the underdog in the Second Round.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: The last twelve months have not been as positive for Johanna Konta as she would have liked and she has been more testy in press conferences as each month has passed by. The British Number 1 will be the first to admit that she has perhaps underachieved but her results have been poorer than the performances and I don't believe Konta is far away from moving back up the World Rankings.
The hard courts should be the favoured surface for Konta and her 15-10 record in 2018 is perhaps a little harsh on her with some tough losses taken. You can't deny the numbers are down on the serve compared with the last couple of years when Konta has thrived in her stunning run up the World Rankings, but she should still have enough from that side of her game to give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty of problems.
Suarez Navarro has slipped down the World Rankings and her hard court numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. The Spaniard remains a feisty competitor who can take advantage of any opponent not reaching a decent level of tennis, but she has a serve which can be vulnerable on the faster surfaces and Konta could definitely take advantage of that side of her game.
The key for Konta will always be how well she serves and that has been an aspect of her game which has been inconsistent at best. When at her best Konta can be very tough to break down, but if she is slightly off her game it could result in giving up too many breaks of serve which makes a cover of this number almost impossible.
Konta did crush Suarez Navarro when they met earlier in the year. Matching that won't be easy with the up and down nature of the Konta performances in 2018, but I do think she can return well enough to put Suarez Navarro under constant pressure. As long as Konta does look after her serve by holding Suarez to three or fewer breaks of serve in the match I think it will be enough for the British player to move into the next Round with a cover of the big number.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: In all honesty it has been a disappointing season on the hard courts for Caroline Garcia and this player still feels some way away from winning a Grand Slam title on any surface. That might be strange to say for a top 10 Ranked player, but I would be stunned if Garcia is able to make a significant impact at the upcoming US Open.
The Frenchwoman has really struggled when she has been asked to step up and take on the best players on the Tour, while her overall game still needs some real improvement. The Garcia serve is a decent weapon for her, but her return is not quite up to the level required to make an impact at the highest level.
However there has been a significant improvement when Garcia has faced players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those are highlighted by some strong numbers on the hard courts and there are improvements across the board in those matches compared with her overall numbers on this surface.
Garcia will respect Aliaksandra Sasnovich after needing three sets to beat this opponent at the Australian Open, while Sasnovich has already won four matches in New Haven after coming through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw.
Earlier this season Sasnovich reached the Final in Brisbane having seen off some top 20 opponents on the way, and she has a serve that needs to be respected. However the return game has been an issue for her and I think Sasnovich may just be put under enough pressure by the Garcia serve to feel scoreboard pressure and ultimately crack under that.
Both players will need the second serve to be effective to win this match and I am just about giving the edge to Garcia there. I also think she is the slightly superior returner and I will back the Frenchwoman to get through this match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
The ATP event in Winston Salem has some decent players involved, but the main contenders in New York are all resting up to get ready for an assault on the title. There may not be as many Tennis Picks this week simply because my focus is beginning to turn to the Grand Slam which begins soon, but there may be some good options to play after two pretty poor weeks for the Picks in Canada and Cincinnati.
On Tuesday I begin this week with three Picks from the two tournaments being played.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: Both of these young players have produced some very good tennis on the hard courts over the last month which will give them some confidence to take into the final Grand Slam of the season. However for both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will see the week in Winston Salem as the chance to add some much needed World Ranking points which can stand them in good stead over the next twelve months.
Some could argue that both of these players should be looking at this week as arguably being even more important than the upcoming US Open. There is no guessing what kind of draw unseeded players like Medvedev and De Minaur will receive in New York so winning this match and moving deep into the event here is very important to them.
I don't think it could be a big surprise that both Medvedev and De Minaur have been so inconsistent in 2018. The latter has reached two Finals at this level on the hard courts which is very impressive, but De Minaur has not really had a big impact in any other event outside of Sydney and Washington, especially when it comes to the hard courts.
This does feel like it is going to be a very close match with their numbers on the hard courts being very similar over the course of 2018. One of the differences between them on the day could be the fact that Daniil Medvedev has already won one match in the tournament while the Seeded Alex De Minaur received a bye through to the Second Round.
Having some familiarity with the conditions will be a boost to the Russian underdog and he does have the slightly better numbers than De Minaur over the course of the season. The Medvedev form has been good and I think he can overturn the expectations from the odds and that is by winning this match as the underdog in the Second Round.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: The last twelve months have not been as positive for Johanna Konta as she would have liked and she has been more testy in press conferences as each month has passed by. The British Number 1 will be the first to admit that she has perhaps underachieved but her results have been poorer than the performances and I don't believe Konta is far away from moving back up the World Rankings.
The hard courts should be the favoured surface for Konta and her 15-10 record in 2018 is perhaps a little harsh on her with some tough losses taken. You can't deny the numbers are down on the serve compared with the last couple of years when Konta has thrived in her stunning run up the World Rankings, but she should still have enough from that side of her game to give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty of problems.
Suarez Navarro has slipped down the World Rankings and her hard court numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. The Spaniard remains a feisty competitor who can take advantage of any opponent not reaching a decent level of tennis, but she has a serve which can be vulnerable on the faster surfaces and Konta could definitely take advantage of that side of her game.
The key for Konta will always be how well she serves and that has been an aspect of her game which has been inconsistent at best. When at her best Konta can be very tough to break down, but if she is slightly off her game it could result in giving up too many breaks of serve which makes a cover of this number almost impossible.
Konta did crush Suarez Navarro when they met earlier in the year. Matching that won't be easy with the up and down nature of the Konta performances in 2018, but I do think she can return well enough to put Suarez Navarro under constant pressure. As long as Konta does look after her serve by holding Suarez to three or fewer breaks of serve in the match I think it will be enough for the British player to move into the next Round with a cover of the big number.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: In all honesty it has been a disappointing season on the hard courts for Caroline Garcia and this player still feels some way away from winning a Grand Slam title on any surface. That might be strange to say for a top 10 Ranked player, but I would be stunned if Garcia is able to make a significant impact at the upcoming US Open.
The Frenchwoman has really struggled when she has been asked to step up and take on the best players on the Tour, while her overall game still needs some real improvement. The Garcia serve is a decent weapon for her, but her return is not quite up to the level required to make an impact at the highest level.
However there has been a significant improvement when Garcia has faced players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those are highlighted by some strong numbers on the hard courts and there are improvements across the board in those matches compared with her overall numbers on this surface.
Garcia will respect Aliaksandra Sasnovich after needing three sets to beat this opponent at the Australian Open, while Sasnovich has already won four matches in New Haven after coming through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw.
Earlier this season Sasnovich reached the Final in Brisbane having seen off some top 20 opponents on the way, and she has a serve that needs to be respected. However the return game has been an issue for her and I think Sasnovich may just be put under enough pressure by the Garcia serve to feel scoreboard pressure and ultimately crack under that.
Both players will need the second serve to be effective to win this match and I am just about giving the edge to Garcia there. I also think she is the slightly superior returner and I will back the Frenchwoman to get through this match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Saturday, 18 August 2018
Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 18-20)
Some may have felt the Premier League had never been away after seeing the top five from last season all win their opening League games of the 2018/19 season.
Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea all scored at least twice in their wins last weekend and there does feel there is a real gap that has developed between the top six and the rest of the Premier League.
I still think we will see the upsets that have been a part of the top flight of English Football over the years, but I also think those five clubs will recognise that they will need to get very close to 80 points to finish in the Champions League places and perhaps closer to 90 points to win the Premier League.
It makes any dropped points highlighted even more and that brings a pressure of its own as both Manchester United and Liverpool have to match the away wins the other three clubs have earned.
I have written a short piece about Manchester United and some of the problems surrounding the club which can be read here.
The remainder of this month is going to be a little busy for me, but I am planning to change up this thread and add some Fantasy plays going forward from September. While the majority of the thread will be focused on the Weekend Picks as it is now, I will list three or four players in the positions of Goalkeeper, Defence, Midfield and Attack who could have a big weekend.
As any Fantasy Football player knows there are a range of prices so I will try and produce a list of two lower priced options with two potentially more expensive choices ahead of each weekend. It is a new part of the thread so will take some adjustments to make it feel like I want it to, but that will begin from the first Premier League games after the September international break.
If that date changes I will update it in the coming weeks.
Now onto the Weekend Picks with the Premier League games spread from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from Wales as Cardiff City host Newcastle United with both clubs searching for their first points of the 2018/19 season.
Last weekend both Newcastle United and Cardiff City conceded twice in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth respectively and I imagine Rafa Benitez and Neil Warnock will be looking for a big response from the players.
You have to say that both squads look short of quality at the Premier League level, but they managers who will believe they can extract more out of their players to overachieve in the coming season. Games like this look to be vital for both and I will admit I was a little surprised Newcastle United are going in as the favourites despite being away from home.
Perhaps the layers have factored in the Newcastle United run of 5 successive wins at Cardiff City including when they last met a couple of years ago. It also should be noted that Cardiff City are one of the favourites for relegation and 3 of the 4 wins Newcastle United had away from home came against teams who finished below them including at 2 of the 3 clubs that were eventually relegated.
However there has to be a real adrenaline boost for the Cardiff City players in their first home game of the season against a team the fans will believe they can beat. The side were very good at home in the Championship and there was enough shown in the final third last Saturday at the Vitality Stadium to think Cardiff City can cause problems for this Newcastle United team.
On the other hand The Magpies should also be able to create some opportunities too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see both teams score.
I did lean towards backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap as the home underdog, but Rafa Benitez showed he can get enough out of his players to win games like this last season in the Premier League and that has to be respected.
The feeling is that Cardiff City and Newcastle United both create enough quality chances to score at least once each and so backing both teams to score at odds against looked the better angle of the two I considered.
Everton v Southampton Pick: The big reason Everton were able to move away from the bottom three last season was the strong form they displayed at Goodison Park for the most part. They have been very good at home in recent years and once again reached double digits in terms of home wins in the Premier League which gives Marco Silva something to build on.
The 2-2 draw at Wolves showed Everton in good light despite being reduced to ten men and they have made some good additions to the squad which underachieved for much of the last campaign. An attacking style will get the fans very much behind Silva and the players, which is so important to this club, and Everton will believe they are ready for a much better season all around.
Richarlison made his debut in style for Everton last weekend but other new faces are not expected to be available for this fixture. That means a similar team to last weekend will kick off this fixture with the potential of Kurt Zouma replacing suspended Phil Jagielka at centre half.
The performance was encouraging enough to think Everton can earn the three points here having won all 10 home games in the League agains teams that finished below them in the League table. You have to think that will be the case for Southampton who looked short of quality in the final third during their goalless draw with Burnley last weekend.
It was a big performance from Alex McCarthy which prevented Southampton from opening this campaign with a defeat and the goalkeeper is likely going to be very important again in this fixture. Southampton will look to make life difficult for Everton by being set up to be hard to beat, but the players look to have responded to Marco Silva in a positive way and I think Everton will earn the three points barring another early sending off like in the game against Wolves.
Everton do have a strong home record against Southampton over the years and I think they will pose enough of an attacking threat to edge out The Saints who scored just 17 away goals last season.
Leicester City v Wolves Pick: There have been some rumours that the Leicester City players are looking to get rid of another manager having downed tools for the likes of Claudio Ranieri and Craig Shakespeare over the last couple of years. It sounds like they have now had enough of Claude Puel despite the strong performance at Old Trafford in their first game of the Premier League season and that makes it tough to trust them.
Any club that have players who are willing to produce poor enough performances to ensure a manager is replaced can't really be backed to win games with the rumours around Leicester City. They were also a team that did have some difficulties getting up for games against the so-called 'lesser' clubs in the Premier League and that is highlighted by the fact that only 3 of their 7 home League wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
Having a derby game should mean the players are well aware of the importance of playing Wolves this weekend and I am not completely convinced the rumours about the player's dissatisfaction are on point. They played with some confidence at Old Trafford and better finishing might have stolen a point against Manchester United and I expect Leicester City to fashion some opportunities against this Wolves team.
Wolves played well enough to earn a point against Everton last weekend in their return to the Premier League and they have some big ambitions. The sending off of Phil Jagielka certainly helped the Wolves cause and I think there is going to be a tough learning curve for the club early in the season as they bed in players who are not used to playing at the Premier League level.
I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make Wolves hard to beat and I don't think Leicester City can take this for granted. I do edge towards the home team if they can replicate how they played at Manchester United last Friday and Jamie Vardy's return to the starting eleven will help with converting the opportunities they can create this weekend.
The derby nature of the fixture makes it a little tougher to predict too, but I am looking for The Foxes to edge out Wolves. I will back Leicester City on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but my feeling is that Leicester City will have just enough in the final third to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: A London derby will be played at Wembley Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur fans get used to playing in the national stadium for at least a couple of months. The delay to the move to the 'New White Hart Lane' is a bother to the club in general as they have to scramble to book venues to play their League and Champions League fixtures coming up, but the players will be focused on events on the field.
They showed they can do that after a positive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have some returning players to boost the squad ahead of this one. The form at Wembley Stadium was decent enough from Tottenham Hotspur, especially down the stretch, to think they won't be too bothered about having to play their next few 'home' games here.
Fulham also have some fond memories of playing at Wembley Stadium having secured their Premier League status with a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Championship Play Off Final in May. The 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace has shown how difficult the move to the Premier League will be for any club coming up from the Championship and it will be tough for Fulham to respond with a really positive result here.
In the last couple of seasons Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly dominant when hosting clubs in the bottom half of the table. They have won 9 of 10 against those clubs in each of the last couple of years and Tottenham Hotspur have enough attacking quality to win this one with some room to spare.
17 of their 30 Premier League wins over the last two seasons have come by at least a two goal margin for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will have a little too much for a Fulham team who are missing some key players. Fulham could play their part against a Tottenham Hotspur team who did have a couple of defensive mistakes in them last week, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture by at least two goals on the day.
West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Last week was a chastening experience for the West Ham United fans who have been dreaming of some very big things for their club this summer. The 4-0 defeat at Anfield may be something that other clubs experience, but it could be good for Manuel Pellegrini and his players to not be saddled with the huge expectations of the fans in their first home game of the new season.
The fans will still be expectant, but they will stay behind their team who may need some weeks to gel in together have signed a number of new players and also having a new voice to listen to in the dressing room.
I do expect better from West Ham United this weekend when they face Bournemouth at the London Stadium although they will have to show significantly better defensive desire to do that. Liverpool can cut open teams, but they were aided massively by the poor defending West Ham United produced and that is something Pellegrini would have worked on during the week.
It is important for West Ham United who will have their chances against Bournemouth but who have to be wary of the attacking intent shown by The Cherries in their win over Cardiff City last week. Bournemouth have had some success in East London at West Ham United since being promoted to the Premier League and their win last weekend will have given the players a boost in confidence to take into this fixture.
However Bournemouth have generally not been so good on their travels and they are a team who have struggled defensively in the last couple of years with at least 61 conceded in both seasons. There is enough about this West Ham United team from an attacking front to think they can get after this Bournemouth side although the fans can sometimes make it a tough atmosphere to play in.
That shouldn't be the case on Saturday with the optimism around the club and I expect West Ham United to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield. It will be a tight game at the London Stadium but I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake if this game ends in a draw.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The second live game in the Premier League on Saturday comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Arsenal meet in a London derby managed by two new faces.
Maurizio Sarri got off to a very good start as he guided Chelsea to a 0-3 win at Huddersfield Town, but this is a much bigger test for him against a quality opponent. The manager himself is downplaying some expectations for his team as he believes it will take a couple of months for the players to really get on board with his tactics, but Sarri is clearly looking for the players to enjoy themselves.
That is something most will get on board with much quicker than with hard taskmasters like Antonio Conte and Chelsea have the likes of Willian and Eden Hazard ready to be unleashed on this Arsenal team.
Unai Emery was given a real eye-opener as to how much work he has to do at the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal were beaten very comfortably by Manchester City. Some of the criticism of the manager has been a little over the top especially when it comes from 'tactical masters' like Sam Allardyce and Tony Adams, but Emery does deserve some of it.
He has to have know it would not be suitable for Arsenal to try and play from the back against the Manchester City high press with the players Emery could use in defensive players. That could be a real problem against Sarri and his Chelsea team if Emery has not learned a lesson and I do feel like this could be another very difficult match for The Gunners.
Last Sunday the Arsenal forwards couldn't really get into the game against Manchester City, but I do expect better from them at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had an easy day defensively against Huddersfield Town, but I would imagine a much sterner examination from Arsenal although this does feel like a fixture that the home side should have the edge in.
Last season Arsenal managed two goalless draws at Stamford Bridge to snap a 5 game losing run on this ground. They did have some fortune in those games to keep Chelsea out, but it will offer some encouragement to the players.
However I am not sure it will be enough on the day and Chelsea can back up their strong win at Huddersfield Town by adding another victory on Saturday. With the likes of Willian and Hazard likely to force mistakes in the Arsenal defensive areas, I think Chelsea have enough to earn the victory and will back them to do that.
Burnley v Watford Pick: Over the last couple of years it has been wins over teams in the bottom half that have helped keep Burnley in the Premier League and they will be looking to make Turf Moor a tough place for teams to visit again. Sean Dyche will be very keen to see his Burnley team pick up their first Premier League win at the first time of asking at Turf Moor, but the challenge is balancing the League with the Europa League commitments.
There were enough key players rested for the win on Thursday which will encourage Dyche that the Burnley squad can perform well both domestically and in European tournaments this season. It is still going to be interesting to see how Burnley handle the Thursday-Sunday combination this weekend having needed extra time to beat Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday evening, but at least that Second Leg was played at home so travelling is not a problem.
Regardless it is still a difficult test to have to play twice in a week against an opponent who will have been preparing all week for this fixture.
Watford made a strong start to the new Premier League season by comfortably beating Brighton 2-0 at Vicarage Road, but Javi Gracia will know The Hornets need to improve their away form to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Last season they did win 4 away games, but those who came pretty early in the season and Watford's run of 13 away games without a win during which time they have been beaten 12 times has to be a major concern.
They were beaten at all of the clubs that finished in the top nine of the Premier League table last season and 13 losses in 19 away League games is a very poor return. Watford lost the same number of away games the season before last and Burnley have shown they have kept their strong defensive discipline from last season which will make them very tough to beat.
I have some reservations about the fact that Burnley have little time to prepare for this one, but I think Sean Dyche did pick a team on Thursday with this Premier League game in mind. The poor Watford away record in the last couple of years in the Premier League added to the fact that Burnley have beaten them twice in a row makes me lean towards the home team earning their first League win of the season.
However the potential fatigue factor means I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. That is still an odds against price and looks the best way to back Burnley to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.
Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The big news this week is that Kevin De Bruyne suffered a knee injury in training for Manchester City which means Pep Guardiola will have to do without a key figure for what could be up to four months. The full diagnosis will come out this week prior to the Premier League game against Huddersfield Town but for the foreseeable future it looks like Manchester City will have to do without their Belgian playmaker.
The fixture list over the next couple of months is not one that will intimidate Manchester City who still have plenty of quality to fall back upon. David Silva may not be ready for this weekend, but the Spaniard will be fresh going forward as he has called time on his international career, while Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez could could be huge influences going forward.
A home game with Huddersfield Town should be one that Manchester City enjoy, although they had two tough Premier League games against them last season. Late in the season Huddersfield Town battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium and the fixture at the John Smith's Stadium was only decided in the last ten minutes in favour of Manchester City.
It will be very difficult for Huddersfield Town to produce the same kind of defensive performance they did a few months ago in the draw here. Over the second half of the Premier League season Huddersfield Town finished with the 19th best record in the top flight, while the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea on the opening weekend underlines the kind of struggles this club could be in for.
A lack of goals has to be a real worry for David Wagner and the Huddersfield Town fans, but they can come to the Etihad Stadium with nothing to lose and give it a really good go. Set pieces will be where Huddersfield Town could be dangerous, but Manchester City finished with the best defensive record in the Premier League last season and they can make it back to back clean sheets to open the 2018/19 campaign.
Backing Manchester City to win with the clean sheet looks the best way to approach this game with the home side being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap. I considered that with the goals Manchester City have in the squad, but Huddersfield Town were only beaten by three or more goals in 4 of their 19 away games last season and instead I will look to oppose them in the goalscoring market considering their struggles there in 2017/18.
Brighton v Manchester United Pick: By hook or by crook all Manchester United fans just wanted the team to help put the poor summer transfer window behind them and earn the victory over Leicester City to open the 2018/19 season.
It was a tough night at Old Trafford but the players made a very good start and then had to battle for the victory over The Foxes.
Ultimately the three points were most important although the Paul Pogba relationship breakdown with Jose Mourinho is a concern for the dressing room harmony. The comments made by Pogba after the win over Leicester City have led to further headlines during the week that the two men are barely on speaking terms at the moment and it does feel Manchester United could be one poor result away from things spiralling out of control.
That is a real concern when you consider backing Manchester United to win any game at the moment, but I do think they can get some revenge for an embarrassing 1-0 defeat at the Amex Stadium back in early May. With the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Ashley Young and possibly Jesse Lingard back, Manchester United have a group of players who should be good enough to win games like this even though they were beaten in this Stadium last time they visited.
On that occasion Manchester United had two or three very good chances to lead before Brighton scored with a rare foray into the final third and the home team will have to be a lot better than on the opening weekend to beat Manchester United again.
Brighton were comfortably beaten by Watford last weekend and they barely created anything of note in the fixture. They have been a much better team at home in the Premier League, but 3 of their 4 home losses last season came against sides who finished in the top five.
Generally those clubs had a little too much quality for Brighton and I do think Manchester United would have been another to win here if they had scored first at the Amex Stadium in early May when the chances came their way. This time they will have Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku at the end of those and I do think the dressing room are still on the same page as the management staff at the moment.
There is no denying Brighton can make life difficult for an opponent if they get the chance to dig in and not fall behind too early, but they have to be a lot better than last week. I am not sure their new signings will have bedded in just yet, and I do think Manchester United will find a way to win here.
All 4 of Brighton's home losses came by two or more goals last season and Manchester United won half of their 10 away wins by the same margin. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap which will give us a full payout if they win by two or more goals, but still provide a positive return if Manchester United win by a single goal margin.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: It can be very easy to overreact to performances and results from the opening weekend of any domestic League campaign, but Liverpool fans won't feel they are doing that after the encouraging 4-0 win over West Ham United. This is a season in which the Liverpool fans have to genuinely believe they win the Premier League title and they can make a statement by winning at Selhurst Park.
While Crystal Palace have not exactly made this ground a fortress, the atmosphere should be very good on Monday night and Roy Hodgson has got the players pulling in the same direction.
The former England and Liverpool manager is well organised and you have to expect his Crystal Palace team to follow the instructions set out for them. They have been very good under Hodgson's guidance and even the losses to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United here were very unfortunate considering Crystal Palace led in the latter two of those before succumbing to late goals.
With Wilfried Zaha in the line up, Crystal Palace will try and hit Liverpool on the counter attack after frustrating them on the other end of the pitch, but keeping Liverpool out is not going to be easy. The front three have already settled into the new season and the addition of Naby Keita to the midfield was huge for them.
Even with that in mind I have to respect how improved Crystal Palace have been under Hodgson and I do think they can pose some real problems for Liverpool. I certainly expect better from Crystal Palace than West Ham United produced last weekend having gift wrapped a couple of the Liverpool goals and I also think Crystal Palace have a bit more going forward than The Hammers showed.
Like I said last week, it is hard to imagine Liverpool not scoring and I do think both clubs will be on the scoreboard this Monday. The last 8 between these clubs at Selhurst Park have featured both teams scoring, while 12 of the last 14 overall have also done the same.
I did consider backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap which looks a big number, but ultimately I just leaned towards both teams scoring a little more and will back that to be the outcome of this one.
MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2018/19 Update: 6-2, + 8.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 50.63% Yield)
Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea all scored at least twice in their wins last weekend and there does feel there is a real gap that has developed between the top six and the rest of the Premier League.
I still think we will see the upsets that have been a part of the top flight of English Football over the years, but I also think those five clubs will recognise that they will need to get very close to 80 points to finish in the Champions League places and perhaps closer to 90 points to win the Premier League.
It makes any dropped points highlighted even more and that brings a pressure of its own as both Manchester United and Liverpool have to match the away wins the other three clubs have earned.
I have written a short piece about Manchester United and some of the problems surrounding the club which can be read here.
The remainder of this month is going to be a little busy for me, but I am planning to change up this thread and add some Fantasy plays going forward from September. While the majority of the thread will be focused on the Weekend Picks as it is now, I will list three or four players in the positions of Goalkeeper, Defence, Midfield and Attack who could have a big weekend.
As any Fantasy Football player knows there are a range of prices so I will try and produce a list of two lower priced options with two potentially more expensive choices ahead of each weekend. It is a new part of the thread so will take some adjustments to make it feel like I want it to, but that will begin from the first Premier League games after the September international break.
If that date changes I will update it in the coming weeks.
Now onto the Weekend Picks with the Premier League games spread from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from Wales as Cardiff City host Newcastle United with both clubs searching for their first points of the 2018/19 season.
Last weekend both Newcastle United and Cardiff City conceded twice in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth respectively and I imagine Rafa Benitez and Neil Warnock will be looking for a big response from the players.
You have to say that both squads look short of quality at the Premier League level, but they managers who will believe they can extract more out of their players to overachieve in the coming season. Games like this look to be vital for both and I will admit I was a little surprised Newcastle United are going in as the favourites despite being away from home.
Perhaps the layers have factored in the Newcastle United run of 5 successive wins at Cardiff City including when they last met a couple of years ago. It also should be noted that Cardiff City are one of the favourites for relegation and 3 of the 4 wins Newcastle United had away from home came against teams who finished below them including at 2 of the 3 clubs that were eventually relegated.
However there has to be a real adrenaline boost for the Cardiff City players in their first home game of the season against a team the fans will believe they can beat. The side were very good at home in the Championship and there was enough shown in the final third last Saturday at the Vitality Stadium to think Cardiff City can cause problems for this Newcastle United team.
On the other hand The Magpies should also be able to create some opportunities too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see both teams score.
I did lean towards backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap as the home underdog, but Rafa Benitez showed he can get enough out of his players to win games like this last season in the Premier League and that has to be respected.
The feeling is that Cardiff City and Newcastle United both create enough quality chances to score at least once each and so backing both teams to score at odds against looked the better angle of the two I considered.
Everton v Southampton Pick: The big reason Everton were able to move away from the bottom three last season was the strong form they displayed at Goodison Park for the most part. They have been very good at home in recent years and once again reached double digits in terms of home wins in the Premier League which gives Marco Silva something to build on.
The 2-2 draw at Wolves showed Everton in good light despite being reduced to ten men and they have made some good additions to the squad which underachieved for much of the last campaign. An attacking style will get the fans very much behind Silva and the players, which is so important to this club, and Everton will believe they are ready for a much better season all around.
Richarlison made his debut in style for Everton last weekend but other new faces are not expected to be available for this fixture. That means a similar team to last weekend will kick off this fixture with the potential of Kurt Zouma replacing suspended Phil Jagielka at centre half.
The performance was encouraging enough to think Everton can earn the three points here having won all 10 home games in the League agains teams that finished below them in the League table. You have to think that will be the case for Southampton who looked short of quality in the final third during their goalless draw with Burnley last weekend.
It was a big performance from Alex McCarthy which prevented Southampton from opening this campaign with a defeat and the goalkeeper is likely going to be very important again in this fixture. Southampton will look to make life difficult for Everton by being set up to be hard to beat, but the players look to have responded to Marco Silva in a positive way and I think Everton will earn the three points barring another early sending off like in the game against Wolves.
Everton do have a strong home record against Southampton over the years and I think they will pose enough of an attacking threat to edge out The Saints who scored just 17 away goals last season.
Leicester City v Wolves Pick: There have been some rumours that the Leicester City players are looking to get rid of another manager having downed tools for the likes of Claudio Ranieri and Craig Shakespeare over the last couple of years. It sounds like they have now had enough of Claude Puel despite the strong performance at Old Trafford in their first game of the Premier League season and that makes it tough to trust them.
Any club that have players who are willing to produce poor enough performances to ensure a manager is replaced can't really be backed to win games with the rumours around Leicester City. They were also a team that did have some difficulties getting up for games against the so-called 'lesser' clubs in the Premier League and that is highlighted by the fact that only 3 of their 7 home League wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
Having a derby game should mean the players are well aware of the importance of playing Wolves this weekend and I am not completely convinced the rumours about the player's dissatisfaction are on point. They played with some confidence at Old Trafford and better finishing might have stolen a point against Manchester United and I expect Leicester City to fashion some opportunities against this Wolves team.
Wolves played well enough to earn a point against Everton last weekend in their return to the Premier League and they have some big ambitions. The sending off of Phil Jagielka certainly helped the Wolves cause and I think there is going to be a tough learning curve for the club early in the season as they bed in players who are not used to playing at the Premier League level.
I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make Wolves hard to beat and I don't think Leicester City can take this for granted. I do edge towards the home team if they can replicate how they played at Manchester United last Friday and Jamie Vardy's return to the starting eleven will help with converting the opportunities they can create this weekend.
The derby nature of the fixture makes it a little tougher to predict too, but I am looking for The Foxes to edge out Wolves. I will back Leicester City on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but my feeling is that Leicester City will have just enough in the final third to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: A London derby will be played at Wembley Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur fans get used to playing in the national stadium for at least a couple of months. The delay to the move to the 'New White Hart Lane' is a bother to the club in general as they have to scramble to book venues to play their League and Champions League fixtures coming up, but the players will be focused on events on the field.
They showed they can do that after a positive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have some returning players to boost the squad ahead of this one. The form at Wembley Stadium was decent enough from Tottenham Hotspur, especially down the stretch, to think they won't be too bothered about having to play their next few 'home' games here.
Fulham also have some fond memories of playing at Wembley Stadium having secured their Premier League status with a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Championship Play Off Final in May. The 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace has shown how difficult the move to the Premier League will be for any club coming up from the Championship and it will be tough for Fulham to respond with a really positive result here.
In the last couple of seasons Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly dominant when hosting clubs in the bottom half of the table. They have won 9 of 10 against those clubs in each of the last couple of years and Tottenham Hotspur have enough attacking quality to win this one with some room to spare.
17 of their 30 Premier League wins over the last two seasons have come by at least a two goal margin for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will have a little too much for a Fulham team who are missing some key players. Fulham could play their part against a Tottenham Hotspur team who did have a couple of defensive mistakes in them last week, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture by at least two goals on the day.
West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Last week was a chastening experience for the West Ham United fans who have been dreaming of some very big things for their club this summer. The 4-0 defeat at Anfield may be something that other clubs experience, but it could be good for Manuel Pellegrini and his players to not be saddled with the huge expectations of the fans in their first home game of the new season.
The fans will still be expectant, but they will stay behind their team who may need some weeks to gel in together have signed a number of new players and also having a new voice to listen to in the dressing room.
I do expect better from West Ham United this weekend when they face Bournemouth at the London Stadium although they will have to show significantly better defensive desire to do that. Liverpool can cut open teams, but they were aided massively by the poor defending West Ham United produced and that is something Pellegrini would have worked on during the week.
It is important for West Ham United who will have their chances against Bournemouth but who have to be wary of the attacking intent shown by The Cherries in their win over Cardiff City last week. Bournemouth have had some success in East London at West Ham United since being promoted to the Premier League and their win last weekend will have given the players a boost in confidence to take into this fixture.
However Bournemouth have generally not been so good on their travels and they are a team who have struggled defensively in the last couple of years with at least 61 conceded in both seasons. There is enough about this West Ham United team from an attacking front to think they can get after this Bournemouth side although the fans can sometimes make it a tough atmosphere to play in.
That shouldn't be the case on Saturday with the optimism around the club and I expect West Ham United to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield. It will be a tight game at the London Stadium but I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake if this game ends in a draw.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The second live game in the Premier League on Saturday comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Arsenal meet in a London derby managed by two new faces.
Maurizio Sarri got off to a very good start as he guided Chelsea to a 0-3 win at Huddersfield Town, but this is a much bigger test for him against a quality opponent. The manager himself is downplaying some expectations for his team as he believes it will take a couple of months for the players to really get on board with his tactics, but Sarri is clearly looking for the players to enjoy themselves.
That is something most will get on board with much quicker than with hard taskmasters like Antonio Conte and Chelsea have the likes of Willian and Eden Hazard ready to be unleashed on this Arsenal team.
Unai Emery was given a real eye-opener as to how much work he has to do at the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal were beaten very comfortably by Manchester City. Some of the criticism of the manager has been a little over the top especially when it comes from 'tactical masters' like Sam Allardyce and Tony Adams, but Emery does deserve some of it.
He has to have know it would not be suitable for Arsenal to try and play from the back against the Manchester City high press with the players Emery could use in defensive players. That could be a real problem against Sarri and his Chelsea team if Emery has not learned a lesson and I do feel like this could be another very difficult match for The Gunners.
Last Sunday the Arsenal forwards couldn't really get into the game against Manchester City, but I do expect better from them at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had an easy day defensively against Huddersfield Town, but I would imagine a much sterner examination from Arsenal although this does feel like a fixture that the home side should have the edge in.
Last season Arsenal managed two goalless draws at Stamford Bridge to snap a 5 game losing run on this ground. They did have some fortune in those games to keep Chelsea out, but it will offer some encouragement to the players.
However I am not sure it will be enough on the day and Chelsea can back up their strong win at Huddersfield Town by adding another victory on Saturday. With the likes of Willian and Hazard likely to force mistakes in the Arsenal defensive areas, I think Chelsea have enough to earn the victory and will back them to do that.
Burnley v Watford Pick: Over the last couple of years it has been wins over teams in the bottom half that have helped keep Burnley in the Premier League and they will be looking to make Turf Moor a tough place for teams to visit again. Sean Dyche will be very keen to see his Burnley team pick up their first Premier League win at the first time of asking at Turf Moor, but the challenge is balancing the League with the Europa League commitments.
There were enough key players rested for the win on Thursday which will encourage Dyche that the Burnley squad can perform well both domestically and in European tournaments this season. It is still going to be interesting to see how Burnley handle the Thursday-Sunday combination this weekend having needed extra time to beat Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday evening, but at least that Second Leg was played at home so travelling is not a problem.
Regardless it is still a difficult test to have to play twice in a week against an opponent who will have been preparing all week for this fixture.
Watford made a strong start to the new Premier League season by comfortably beating Brighton 2-0 at Vicarage Road, but Javi Gracia will know The Hornets need to improve their away form to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Last season they did win 4 away games, but those who came pretty early in the season and Watford's run of 13 away games without a win during which time they have been beaten 12 times has to be a major concern.
They were beaten at all of the clubs that finished in the top nine of the Premier League table last season and 13 losses in 19 away League games is a very poor return. Watford lost the same number of away games the season before last and Burnley have shown they have kept their strong defensive discipline from last season which will make them very tough to beat.
I have some reservations about the fact that Burnley have little time to prepare for this one, but I think Sean Dyche did pick a team on Thursday with this Premier League game in mind. The poor Watford away record in the last couple of years in the Premier League added to the fact that Burnley have beaten them twice in a row makes me lean towards the home team earning their first League win of the season.
However the potential fatigue factor means I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. That is still an odds against price and looks the best way to back Burnley to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.
Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The big news this week is that Kevin De Bruyne suffered a knee injury in training for Manchester City which means Pep Guardiola will have to do without a key figure for what could be up to four months. The full diagnosis will come out this week prior to the Premier League game against Huddersfield Town but for the foreseeable future it looks like Manchester City will have to do without their Belgian playmaker.
The fixture list over the next couple of months is not one that will intimidate Manchester City who still have plenty of quality to fall back upon. David Silva may not be ready for this weekend, but the Spaniard will be fresh going forward as he has called time on his international career, while Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez could could be huge influences going forward.
A home game with Huddersfield Town should be one that Manchester City enjoy, although they had two tough Premier League games against them last season. Late in the season Huddersfield Town battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium and the fixture at the John Smith's Stadium was only decided in the last ten minutes in favour of Manchester City.
It will be very difficult for Huddersfield Town to produce the same kind of defensive performance they did a few months ago in the draw here. Over the second half of the Premier League season Huddersfield Town finished with the 19th best record in the top flight, while the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea on the opening weekend underlines the kind of struggles this club could be in for.
A lack of goals has to be a real worry for David Wagner and the Huddersfield Town fans, but they can come to the Etihad Stadium with nothing to lose and give it a really good go. Set pieces will be where Huddersfield Town could be dangerous, but Manchester City finished with the best defensive record in the Premier League last season and they can make it back to back clean sheets to open the 2018/19 campaign.
Backing Manchester City to win with the clean sheet looks the best way to approach this game with the home side being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap. I considered that with the goals Manchester City have in the squad, but Huddersfield Town were only beaten by three or more goals in 4 of their 19 away games last season and instead I will look to oppose them in the goalscoring market considering their struggles there in 2017/18.
Brighton v Manchester United Pick: By hook or by crook all Manchester United fans just wanted the team to help put the poor summer transfer window behind them and earn the victory over Leicester City to open the 2018/19 season.
It was a tough night at Old Trafford but the players made a very good start and then had to battle for the victory over The Foxes.
Ultimately the three points were most important although the Paul Pogba relationship breakdown with Jose Mourinho is a concern for the dressing room harmony. The comments made by Pogba after the win over Leicester City have led to further headlines during the week that the two men are barely on speaking terms at the moment and it does feel Manchester United could be one poor result away from things spiralling out of control.
That is a real concern when you consider backing Manchester United to win any game at the moment, but I do think they can get some revenge for an embarrassing 1-0 defeat at the Amex Stadium back in early May. With the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Ashley Young and possibly Jesse Lingard back, Manchester United have a group of players who should be good enough to win games like this even though they were beaten in this Stadium last time they visited.
On that occasion Manchester United had two or three very good chances to lead before Brighton scored with a rare foray into the final third and the home team will have to be a lot better than on the opening weekend to beat Manchester United again.
Brighton were comfortably beaten by Watford last weekend and they barely created anything of note in the fixture. They have been a much better team at home in the Premier League, but 3 of their 4 home losses last season came against sides who finished in the top five.
Generally those clubs had a little too much quality for Brighton and I do think Manchester United would have been another to win here if they had scored first at the Amex Stadium in early May when the chances came their way. This time they will have Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku at the end of those and I do think the dressing room are still on the same page as the management staff at the moment.
There is no denying Brighton can make life difficult for an opponent if they get the chance to dig in and not fall behind too early, but they have to be a lot better than last week. I am not sure their new signings will have bedded in just yet, and I do think Manchester United will find a way to win here.
All 4 of Brighton's home losses came by two or more goals last season and Manchester United won half of their 10 away wins by the same margin. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap which will give us a full payout if they win by two or more goals, but still provide a positive return if Manchester United win by a single goal margin.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: It can be very easy to overreact to performances and results from the opening weekend of any domestic League campaign, but Liverpool fans won't feel they are doing that after the encouraging 4-0 win over West Ham United. This is a season in which the Liverpool fans have to genuinely believe they win the Premier League title and they can make a statement by winning at Selhurst Park.
While Crystal Palace have not exactly made this ground a fortress, the atmosphere should be very good on Monday night and Roy Hodgson has got the players pulling in the same direction.
The former England and Liverpool manager is well organised and you have to expect his Crystal Palace team to follow the instructions set out for them. They have been very good under Hodgson's guidance and even the losses to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United here were very unfortunate considering Crystal Palace led in the latter two of those before succumbing to late goals.
With Wilfried Zaha in the line up, Crystal Palace will try and hit Liverpool on the counter attack after frustrating them on the other end of the pitch, but keeping Liverpool out is not going to be easy. The front three have already settled into the new season and the addition of Naby Keita to the midfield was huge for them.
Even with that in mind I have to respect how improved Crystal Palace have been under Hodgson and I do think they can pose some real problems for Liverpool. I certainly expect better from Crystal Palace than West Ham United produced last weekend having gift wrapped a couple of the Liverpool goals and I also think Crystal Palace have a bit more going forward than The Hammers showed.
Like I said last week, it is hard to imagine Liverpool not scoring and I do think both clubs will be on the scoreboard this Monday. The last 8 between these clubs at Selhurst Park have featured both teams scoring, while 12 of the last 14 overall have also done the same.
I did consider backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap which looks a big number, but ultimately I just leaned towards both teams scoring a little more and will back that to be the outcome of this one.
MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2018/19 Update: 6-2, + 8.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 50.63% Yield)
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