Tennis Picks 2018 (June 25th)

The build towards the third Grand Slam of the Tennis season continues this week with a big event in Eastbourne the highlight of the week before Wimbledon begins in seven days time.

This week the Qualifiers for Wimbledon will take place over the few days before the draw for the tournament is made on Friday, but the main attention will be on Eastbourne where a men's and women's event take place.

On Sunday I got this week off to a positive start after two strong weeks on the grass courts have helped put the season in a strong position. Keeping the momentum going through to Wimbledon would be the perfect way to head into that Slam where the Tennis Picks come thick and fast and hopefully I can round of June with some more positive results.

The winning selection came from the WTA event being played in Eastbourne and I am sticking to that tournament for my Tennis Picks on Monday too.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Sachia Vickery: This is a pretty big number when you think of the inconsistent performances Aryna Sabalenka has produced on the grass courts, but I think she will beat Lucky Loser Sachia Vickery in the First Round in Eastbourne,

Playing on the grass courts is a tough learning curve for some players but Sabalenka has shown enough to think she is good enough to win a match like this one.

The serve is an effective weapon for her on this surface and Sabalenka has been good enough to beat the kind of players that tend to operate at the same level as Vickery. The 2-2 record on the grass courts in 2018 means Sabalenka may be lacking some confidence, but the general level she has been playing at is at least one step above Vickery's and I do think she can serve herself into a position to win this match with some comfort.

Her opponent is in as a Lucky Loser and that can make Vickery dangerous, but she has to find better consistency at this level. While her overall numbers have not been too bad, Vickery has struggled when going up against players in the top 100 of the World Ranking.

Vickery's serve has been a real weakness in those matches and I think that could be a problem for her in this match even if she is facing an opponent in Sabalenka who has not really returned as well as she would have liked on the grass. I am expecting better from Sabalenka in this match though and there has been an improvement on the percentage of return points won compared with 2017 on the grass.

This is a tough number as I have mentioned, but Sabalenka should be able to earn a break more in each set of a straights win.


Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: The lack of grass court experience looked like it could be a problem for Mihaela Buzarnescu at this time of the season after a stunning rise up the World Rankings. However there have been no excuses made by Buzarnescu about inexperience and she has had a good month on the grass already.

Losses to Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova are not bad ones for Buzarnescu who has produced a 5-2 record on the grass after a good showing at the French Open. She upset Elina Svitolina in Paris and has done the same on the grass and you have to think confidence is very high.

That could partly be down to what have been some very strong numbers on the grass courts over the last month. The Buzarnescu serve has been very effective and that has allowed her to free up on the return of serve where she has produced some very good totals in the last month.

Buzarnescu will have to be at her best to beat Shuai Peng who is very comfortable on the grass courts, but who is making her first appearance on the grass in 2018. That may have had something to do with the injury Peng was carrying at the French Open and if she is less than 100% healthy for this match it is going to be a very difficult one to win.

In recent years Peng has been consistent on the grass courts and she is someone who has a decent serve and strong returning. I absolutely have to have respect for that, but Buzarnescu has been playing very well and looks to be healthier than Peng going into the First Round match.

That is enough for me to favour an in-form Buzarnescu to win this match and find the cover of a big number when they meet in Eastbourne.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: On first glance you would say this is a big number considering how talented Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is, but the grass courts have not been her favourite surface in recent years.

That might be a surprising statement when thinking back to 2016 and noting Pavlyuchenkova reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon. However that was a run filled with surprising wins for the Russian and the numbers have backed up the feeling that Pavlyuchenkova is not as convincing on the grass courts as she is on other surfaces.

The serve is a big weapon for Pavlyuchenkova on the grass and she returns better than you may expect considering the general poor record on the surface. That bodes well for her, but the match up with Karolina Pliskova is not one she has enjoyed and that may be the case again on Monday.

It is Pliskova who has won all five matches between these players and she has also won all ten sets competed in those matches. In only one of those matches has Pavlyuchenkova won more than six games against Pliskova and even in the exception she only reached seven games as she has struggled to cope with the big serve possesses by Pliskova.

Pliskova is the defending Champion in Eastbourne and she has performed well at this tournament and on the grass as a whole in recent years. The loss to Magdalena Rybarikova last week in Birmingham would have been an irritation, but Rybarikova is a solid enough player on the grass courts to be a defeat that should not overly concern Pliskova.

I would expect the Pliskova serve to be much more effective in this match and she has really begun to get her teeth into the return of serve on the grass in the last couple of years. With the strong head to head against Pavlyuchenkova I think Pliskova can be backed to continue her dominance of this rivalry and I believe she will be good enough to cover the big looking number at an appealing price.


Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: You can't deny the kind of talent Camila Giorgi possesses, but I do wonder if she is willing to put in the kind of work you need to do day to day to really fulfil the potential she has. In my opinion she should be much higher up the World Rankings as she possesses a powerful game, but inconsistent results continue to prevent her really making a big impact on the WTA Tour.

The Italian is a dangerous opponent though and she has regularly raised her game when facing some of the biggest names on the Tour and she can do that on some of the biggest courts in the world. That should mean Giorgi is not overawed at all by the occasion of taking on Caroline Wozniacki who has won one of the two Grand Slams that have been completed this season.

Giorgi holds two wins over Wozniacki too and she is facing a player who has yet to have a competitive match on the grass courts. She has produced some solid numbers on the grass courts over the last couple of years which makes her a player that has to be respected, but even with all that in mind I am leaning towards Caroline Wozniacki winning this match and covering the number.

The former World Number 1 may have lost a couple of matches to Giorgi, but she has won two matches against her and both of those have come on the grass courts. Both wins came in pretty dominant fashion for Wozniacki and she should also not be too concerned about playing her first grass court match here in Eastbourne as that has been the norm of her schedule in recent years.

Wozniacki has a very strong record in Eastbourne and was a Runner Up here in 2017 while her overall numbers on the grass courts are pretty good. Unsurprisingly Wozniacki has some strong return numbers on this surface like she does on many others, and what can sometimes be a limited serve is effective enough too which helps Wozniacki rack up the wins on this surface.

The only concern is Wozniacki makes a slow start in her first match back on the grass and Giorgi is able to take advantage and pull clear. However I think Wozniacki will weather the Italian storm and then take control of this match and I like her returning ability to be the difference maker at an event she has regularly enjoyed in recent years.


Kristyna Pliskova - 4.5 games v Harriet Dart: I am backing Kristyna's twin sister Karolina to win and cover a big number in Eastbourne on Monday and I think Kristyna will be able to do the same.

There is no doubt that Kristyna Pliskova has not been able to match the kind of success Karolina has had on the Tour, but she has a big serve and that is a strong weapon on the grass courts. Her service numbers have made good reading, but it is up to Pliskova to show a little better when it comes to the return of serve if she is going to have deep runs on this surface.

While I expect the return game to be the reason this Pliskova sister is not going to be a big threat at the tournaments ahead, I do think she is good enough to give Harriet Dart some real problems.

The young British player is yet to really have a consistent time on the Tour and she is perhaps a little fortunate to have been given a Wild Car into the main draw in Eastbourne. Dart has not played a lot of grass court tennis this summer and she is someone who has struggled with the return of serve which is not going to be improved when facing someone like Pliskova.

Dart's own serve should not be one that puts Pliskova under enough pressure and I think it will be one of the better returning days from the Czech player. While a big number when you think of the limited return game of Pliskova, I think the match up should be a good one for her and I will back her to cover here.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.82 Units (2 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 24th)

Another week on the Tennis Tour is about to be put into the books with the four events this week all having their Finals played on Sunday.

We also have the beginning of the tournament in Eastbourne which is going to be the final preparation for players before the third Grand Slam of the season begins at Wimbledon in eight days time.

Last week was another strong one for the Tennis Picks to move this season into a strong positive position. One more this week will give me the kind of momentum I would like to take into Wimbledon and I am looking for a good start to open up the week which begins on Sunday to ensure the Finals are ready to be played next Saturday.


Donna Vekic - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The First Round begins at the WTA event in Eastbourne on Sunday and I do think Donna Vekic is capable of getting the better of Yulia Putintseva in this match.

You always have to credit a player for winning a Qualifier to get into the main draw and Putintseva is coming in off a surprisingly strong showing at the French Open. However it has to be said that Putintseva is not at her best on the grass courts and even a win in a Qualifier is not going to convince me she has suddenly figured things out on a difficult surface to master.

One of the problems for Putintseva is she has a serve which won't produce a lot of free points on the grass courts and it is a shot that opponents can attack from the off. Donna Vekic will look to do that in Eastbourne and she has been returning well enough on the grass in 2018 to think she will have considerable success when getting after Putintseva.

There would have been more wins put up by Vekic if she had served slightly better in her matches on the grass this season, but losses to Johanna Konta and Elina Svitolina are hardly big disappointments on this surface. Those players are opponents who can challenge the Vekic serve, but it may be a much bigger challenge for Putintseva who has been a poor returner on the grass in recent years.

Putintseva did return well to beat Christina McHale in the Qualifiers, but her numbers in recent years have been some way short of the standard that she will need in this one.

I would expect the Vekic serve to be good enough to keep Putintseva at bay in this match and I think she is a capable returner. It may be tough for Vekic to maintain the level of success she has had returning on the grass in 2018, but I do think she can keep that going here as she beats Putintseva and moves through to the Second Round with a win and cover.

MY PICKS: Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 25.84 Units (953 Units Staked, + 2.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 22nd)

The Quarter Finals are set to be played on Friday across the various tournaments that have been in action this week.

It the last of the big matches before Wimbledon begins, although there is a strong looking WTA field in Eastbourne next week. While those preparations are completed on the south coast, the majority of players will begin to think about the third Grand Slam of the 2018 season.

I'm still not convinced of the short turnaround between the French Open and Wimbledon, but the Tennis calendar is such that at least we have an extra week between those events compared to the situation a few years ago. Personally I would love to see more time between these two Slams and perhaps the change in the Davis Cup format which looks to be coming in will help as that is two weeks between the Australian Open and French Open which could be removed on the calendar which had traditionally been held for the Davis Cup.

We may then have the chance to see a slightly longer grass court season and better preparation time for the likes of Simona Halep and Rafael Nadal with the two French Open Champions both going straight into Wimbledon without taking in a grass court event.


So far it has been another positive week for the Tennis Picks as the bounce back from a disappointing French Open continues. Another winning day on Thursday has added to the solid numbers already and I am hoping to round off the week with a good three days as these events come to a close.

I've put together the analysis for the ATP Quarter Final matches, but I will add the Picks from the two WTA Tournaments to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Sam Querrey: The grass courts at Queens Club have proven to be some of the quicker ones on the Tour, but that has not stopped either Marin Cilic or Sam Querrey from finding a way to break big serves they have faced.

Both will be feeling confident going into this Quarter Final as former winners of this tournament, although it has to be said that it is Cilic who has had the more sustained success on the grass courts in recent years.

The Croatian has continued that success with a really good tournament and Cilic has found a way to create plenty of break points against decent servers on the grass Fernando Verdasco and Gilles Muller. His serve has been a huge weapon with just a single break going against him and Cilic is a combined 116% when it comes to the hold/break percentage in his two matches which are some impressive numbers.

Since 2016 it has been the norm for Cilic to prove to be a dominant server and someone who will create chances to break serve and that will see him put some pressure on Querrey.

Sam Querrey's numbers have been even more impressive than Cilic's so far on the grass on a very small sample, but you can't ignore some of the issues he had against Stan Wawrinka. The American needed to save set points at 5-4 down in the first set and managed to save twelve out of thirteen break points against an opponent who is not playing at the level that Cilic is.

Beating Gilles Muller should give Cilic the patience to wait for his chances to come against another big server although Querrey is a very good grass court player thanks to the serve he possesses. However Cilic has won all five previous matches against Querrey and four of those have come on the grass courts and he was dominating the American at Wimbledon last year with only one sloppy game making it a slightly tougher day in the office than it may have been.

Cilic won 41% of the return points in that Semi Final win at Wimbledon against Querrey and he has been locked in on the return so far. At key moments I think Cilic will exert enough pressure from the return to work his way to around three breaks in this match and that should be good enough to cover this spread.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: If Novak Djokovic has been lacking some confidence since returning to the ATP Tour the two performances this week will have given him some belief that he can find his best tennis again. After suggesting he would miss the whole grass court season in the wake of his defeat at Roland Garros, Djokovic has dominated John Millman and Grigor Dimitrov.

He wouldn't be overly concerned by what Adrian Mannarino produced in his win over Julien Benneteau in the Second Round either with the Frenchman perhaps fortunate to win his two matches so far.

It doesn't matter how you have performed to get to the Quarter Final but what you can do on the day, although it has to be said that Mannarino will have to be a lot better to compete against Novak Djokovic. Mannarino has not held serve as convincingly as you would hope on the grass courts, but the bigger issue has been a return game which has slipped from the standards he has usually produced on the grass.

It is only a small sample in 2018 to suggest it is a permanent decline, but Mannarino has been on the Tour a long time and I do think it will be an issue against Novak Djokovic who has yet to be broken at Queens. He has only faced the one break point in two matches and that came when leading Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 5-1 and I think Djokovic will keep the pressure on Mannarino in this match.

Djokovic has been very, very good when it comes to the return of serve so far this week and it was that aspect of his game which helped take him to the World Number 1 position and becoming the dominant player on the ATP Tour for a number of years. The Serb has broken in 50% of his return games in his two matches here at Queens and that is not good news for Mannarino who is holding at under 80% on the grass in the last thirteen months.

These two players met at Wimbledon last year when Djokovic came through with a comfortable straight sets win despite having some wrist issues which would later see him withdraw from the tournament and the rest of the tennis season. They have met two years in a row at Wimbledon and Djokovic has been strong on serve and dictated things against the Mannarino serve.

That kind of situation could unfold again when they meet for the third year in a row on the grass courts and I will back Novak Djokovic to win by a comfortable margin.


Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: This has been a very good month of June for Jeremy Chardy who has produced some of his very best tennis on the grass courts to put together an 11-1 record. He has won a title in Surbiton and backed that up with a run to the Final in Hertogenbosch before heading to London and putting another two wins into the books at Queens Club.

I do wonder when we will see some fatigue affect the play of Chardy, but he seems to be happy riding on the momentum he has picked up. Strong wins over Tim Smyczek and Daniil Medvedev have kept that going and it is a far cry from twelve months ago when Chardy was really struggling on the grass.

His serve really was a problem for him in 2017, but Chardy is back to a very high percentage of holds which does put some pressure on his opponents.

On Friday it is Francis Tiafoe who has a go at cracking the strong run Chardy has been on, but the American is yet to really convince on this surface. Both wins this week could easily have gone the other way if a few big points had swung to his opponents, but Tiafoe should at least feel he can be competitive on this surface.

Tiafoe has held serve at a high rate in his two grass court matches in 2018 which is a big improvement on 2018 but like opponent Chardy there have been some problems when it comes to the return of serve. Neither player has been very strong on the return of serve on the grass courts where the reaction time is simply not great news for those limited returners on the Tour.

Out of the two players you have to give Chardy the edge considering the numbers he has produced. While Chardy has the lower break percentage in 2018 on this surface, he has won a higher percentage of points against the serve and behind serve and I think the confidence will help Chardy keep that going.

Chardy's return numbers have been stronger this week than they have been throughout the grass court season so far and I think that has to be factored in too. While the layers think it will be close as they factor in the potential fatigue Chardy is feeling, I think the day off on Thursday was a blessing for the Frenchman and he can win this match and cover the spread being set by the layers.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Magdalena Rybarikova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 15-9, + 8.50 Units (48 Units Staked, + 17.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 21st)

The Tennis tournaments this week are a little easier to prepare in the middle of the week as far as Tennis Picks are concerned with the Second Round split over two days.

That usually means the markets are out considerably earlier than they would be normally and I have got my Picks prepared before the results from the Wednesday Picks are completed.


Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: I guess you would have to make Daria Kasatakina favourite for this match because of her overall performances this season, but I have to say the prices don't factor in the poorer record she has on the grass.

Her win in the First Round will have given Kasatkina some confidence, but this is clearly still a learning curve for her and I do think someone like Lesia Tsurenko is comfortable enough on the surface to give the young Russian something to think about.

My concern with backing a small underdog on the WTA Tour is that you can see sets run away from them and then even a deciding set loss is not enough to get within the number. Someone who returns as well as Kasatkina makes me a little more wary when it comes to this pick, but I think Tsurenko should be able to have some joy on the return herself to keep this one close.

I also believe Tsurenko has every chance to win this match outright which makes backing her on the handicap a little more comfortable for me. Tsurenko is a decent grass court player without being a world beater on the surface and I do think she will be able to have her moments in this one which makes the underdog more appealing.

Having the safety of the games behind me when I believe she is capable of winning the match outright helps me get behind Tsurenko in this one as Kasatkina continues to prove to herself that she can play on this surface.


Julien Benneteau v Adrian Mannarino: This is expected to the final season on the Tour as a Singles player for Julien Benneteau but he is making the best of the situation with a strong run here at Queens Club. The Frenchman came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw and Benneteau had a strong win over Tomas Berdych which will give him confidence as he gets set to face compatriot Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round.

Benneteau has always enjoyed playing on the grass and he has been in good form so far this week although I do wonder if he is playing above the level expected.

In 2017 Benneteau really struggled when it came to holding his serve, but he has been strong on that front in the three matches played to get into the main draw at Queens. However where Benneteau continues to pose a threat is off the return of serve and he will feel he can get the better of Adrian Mannarino despite the grass court pedigree the latter has displayed.

In recent seasons Mannarino has had some strong hold/break percentages on the grass courts although he has had a mixed start to 2018. A loss to Jeremy Chardy and a win over Daniel Evans is not bad form although I do worry about the head to head with the feeling it matters a lot when it comes to matches between French players.

Both players could find themselves under pressure when it comes to the service games and I would not be surprised if we see a number of breaks of serve even in the faster conditions in this part of West London. However I think it is Julien Benneteau playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and the head to head with Mannarino may be enough to make the difference at key moments of the match.

There will be some twists and turns along the way, but I like Julien Benneteau in what is almost a pick 'em contest.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There are signs that Novak Djokovic is getting somewhere near to his best, but I think there is still some way to go for the former World Number 1 to really have the belief in his own game. You got a sense of that when going out of the French Open in disappointing circumstances and immediately questioning whether he will play at Wimbledon in July.

Taking a Wild Card into Queens is a good sign for Djokovic, but in reality he is still very much searching to get comfortable on the court. His numbers have been decent enough throughout 2018, but the aura around him has gone and that means players are less likely to capitulate at his feet if they fall behind in a set.

Novak Djokovic was a dominant winner in the First Round here over John Millman, but the level of competition goes up drastically when going up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and very comfortable on the grass courts, although I am not sure the Bulgarian is feeling his best tennis right now.

Playing someone like Djokovic on this surface should get the adrenaline pumping for Dimitrov but he was struggling for his best in the First Round and really needs to step up his play. An area of concern for Dimitrov fans is the decline in the service numbers on the grass courts in four consecutive years and now coming up a returner as strong as Novak Djokovic can be is going to put the higher Ranked player under some pressure.

Dimitrov should enjoy some success on the return of serve though, even if he is not the best returner on the Tour. That is mainly down to Djokovic still not having full faith in that shot after the wrist issues of twelve months ago, but generally the Serb has been a strong server on the grass courts and even his 80% hold percentage in 2018 is not to be sniffed at.

I think Djokovic has the edge in this match and the head to head only adds to that. While I expect the former World Number 1 to go through some challenging moments in the match, I think Djokovic will have the majority of the break point chances and I will look for Djokovic to win and cover in this big Second Round match.


Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: Two players who are very comfortable on the grass courts will meet in the Second Round in Halle and it has all the makings of a match that may need to go the distance to settle it. Philipp Kohlschreiber has not been putting the wins together he would have liked and he won't have nearly the same kind of confidence as Matthew Ebden.

Ebden has reached back to back Semi Finals on the grass courts and that has earned him a Special Entry into the main draw in Halle. He has deserved that, but it also has to be noted that very rarely has Ebden played someone with the quality that Kohlschreiber brings to the court, while he will also have to deal with the spectators who will want the home player to win.

Where Ebden can be confident is the way he has been serving and the 91% hold rate from eleven matches played on the grass over the last couple of weeks has to be respected. The opposition may not have been the best in that run, but Ebden will believe in his serve and he is facing an opponent here who is not exactly the greatest returner on this surface.

You can see that from Kohlschreiber's numbers on the return of serve, but he himself is possessed with a solid serve on the grass courts and I think it will be a challenge for Ebden facing it. Last week Ebden did break the Gilles Muller serve at will on the grass which is a huge achievement, but Kohlschreiber may have a little more all around game which can help him maintain his own strong numbers on the serve.

This has the feeling of a match where one or two breaks of serve will decide it but I won't be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one. With the chances of this one going into a deciding set too I do think the total games can be surpassed although a straight sets win could be a concern if one of these players is not serving as well as expected.

I did also think Matthew Ebden is a big price to win the match considering how well he has been playing and especially returning on the grass courts, but it should be a close match and I will look at the total games line.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Whenever you see a spread of this size you have to be a little careful and that is especially so on the grass courts where breaks of serve are not obtained easily.

For all the obvious greatness of Roger Federer, who won yet another grass court title last week in Stuttgart, sometimes you can question the return of serve and whether it will be effective enough to cover this kind of number. In his five wins on grass Federer has broken at just 18% so far this season and his 2017 number of 43.5% is clearly an out-marker compared to his general numbers which have been much more similar to where he is this season.

It will be interesting to see how he copes against Benoit Paire who has had some solid grass court results over the last thirteen months compared to his general feel on this surface. His hold percentage has been markedly improved and that has allowed Paire to free himself up when it comes to the return of serve and the main reason the wins have been put together on this surface.

In usual circumstances I would not hesitate to move on from this match, but Paire has had some issues with Federer in their previous meetings and rarely been competitive. That has to be in his head against an opponent who is the best grass court player in the world at this time and I do think it will give Federer a chance to produce the break points needed to cover this number.

The head to head is 5-0 in favour of Federer and in eleven sets played the Swiss player has only given up four or more games three times. He hasn't dominated Paire completely on the numbers, but Federer fashions his break points and tends to take them against this opponent which may have as much to do with the Frenchman's emotional state at those pressurised moments which can be questioned.

That may be the case when they play in Halle and I think Federer has been serving well enough to have three more breaks of serve than Paire which should be good enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.58 Units (38 Units Staked, + 19.95% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 20th)

It was a mixed set of results on Tuesday for the Tennis Picks but it wasn't a completely unimportant day as we are always building data which can help going forward.

What I have realised is I am very unlikely to back Nick Kyrgios or Tomas Berdych again this season.

One player is too emotional for me and you simply don't know how he is going to feel from day to day, while the other is on a decline which is getting more and more rapid. I like Kyrgios but I have long found him a tough player to trust, especially as a favourite, while Berdych's return game has slipped considerably.

I was disappointed with the returns on Tuesday, but at least this week is still in a profitable position and I am looking to add to that on Wednesday. The selections look quite difficult to find on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round at the events being played this week, but I do have a number which can be read below.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The First Round win over Joao Sousa was a lot harder work for Robin Haase than it perhaps should have been but it was another strong result on the grass courts for the Dutchman. The serve is an effective weapon for Haase and that is his best chance of putting Roberto Bautista Agut under pressure.

Over the last few years Haase has really been tough to break on the grass courts and he has continued that form so far in 2018. He has held serve at 85% or better in four of the last five seasons on the grass courts with 2016 being an exception as that number dropped down to 76%, but the consistency suggests he gets enough pop out of the serve which makes it tough for opponents to get into those games.

The main reason Haase has not produced as many wins as he would have liked is a limited return game and that was almost his downfall against Sousa in the First Round. It was the reason he was beaten in three tight sets by Roberto Bautista Agut earlier this season on the hard courts, although I am backing the Spaniard to win a little more comfortably in this Second Round match.

Bautista Agut may not have the same percentage of holds as Haase on this surface because he simply does not have as big a serve, but he has been very good on that side of his game. The edge goes to Bautista Agut when it comes to returning effectively enough and that helped him crush Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round after coming through some difficult moments in the first set.

The return has helped his combined hold/break percentage reach at least 100% in the last four seasons and I think Bautista Agut will get the better of Haase in this one. I like the way the latter has played on the grass courts but I think Bautista Agut will put him under more pressure on Haase's own serve and that can see him break him down over the course of this match and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The last couple of years have seen Kei Nishikori's grass court season end with an injury problem both times, but he may be coming into the 2018 campaign as healthy as he has been. Last year's injury came in Halle and it was soon afterwards that Nishikori was out for the rest of the year to recover and there have been signs he is getting back to his best.

Nishikori is perhaps an underrated grass court player simply because he has not racked up the kind of wins he could have done without injury coming in to prevent him doing so. The numbers have remained very good from Nishikori and he was a solid winner in the First Round here which will have given him a chance to get used to the grass underneath the feet.

In 2017 Nishikori was forced to pull out of a match against Karen Khachanov and it is the same opponent standing in his way twelve months later.

There isn't a lot of data on Khachanov on the grass courts having only really begun to play on the surface in 2017, but unlike idol Marat Safin it looks like a surface on which the young Russian will be very comfortable. His win over Mischa Zverev in the First Round has to be given a lot of respect and Khachanov will believe he has the shot making and power to give Nishikori plenty to worry about in this match.

I think that is the case too, but Nishikori's combined hold/break percentage on the grass courts have been very impressive over the years. There is every chance this is going to be a good looking match with both players having their chances, but I think Nishikori's superior return game will prove to be a difference maker at key moments of this match and I do think he is the better grass court player.

At the moment he may be a little underrated on the surface and I will back Nishikori to win and cover the number in a victory.


Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey over 24.5 games: The grass courts at Queens Club in West London tend to be some of the faster ones on the ATP Tour and that gives players like Sam Querrey the chance to be very effective on the surface. His overall record on the grass is very good which is not a big surprise considering the serve the American has been blessed with and it will be a key weapon for him in this Second Round match.

Querrey may be 1-5 down in the head to head with Stan Wawrinka, which includes a heavy loss at Queens Club, but it is Querrey who comes in as favourite which says a lot about where Wawrinka is with his comeback from an injury.

Both players defeated lower Ranked British opponents in the First Round and both Wawrinka and Querrey were deserved winners having held serve throughout the match. Both players will understand the opponent they face in the Second Round is likely to get a lot more joy on the return of serve, although I still think serve will be king in this match.

Out of the two players it is Querrey who has shown a little more out of the return on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but Wawrinka is someone who will try and put pressure on Querrey with bunted returns and force the big man to win longer rallies than he is used to.

That has proved to be effective enough in beating Querrey for the majority of their matches against one another, but there are some doubts about the fitness of Wawrinka which can't be ignored. Instead I am looking for a match where both players can put a huge number of holds on the board and I would not be surprised if we needed a third set to decide the winner.

Even a tight two setter has every chance of covering the total games line in this one and I will back the two players to combine for enough games to surpass this line.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: With the courts traditionally playing pretty fast in this are of West London it automatically feels like a big spread for the Number 1 Seed to cover. Marin Cilic may be very comfortable on the grass courts as a former winner here in Queens and also a former Wimbledon Finalist, but he is going to be tested by Gilles Muller who pushed Cilic the distance both at Queens and at Wimbledon in 2017.

The raw numbers from those matches suggest Muller was perhaps a little fortunate to be able to have gotten so close to beating Cilic in both of those events. Any time a player can force a deciding set they will feel they have a chance to win the match, but Cilic will have been disappointed to have lost either when looking the stronger player both times but allowing one poor service game to make life much tougher than it should have been.

One thing that sticks out the most from their matches on the grass in 2017 is that Cilic won a very strong 43% and 45% of return points in those two matches. That is a pretty incredible return against someone like Gilles Muller who has a big left handed serve that has seen him win at least 71% points behind serve in four of the last five years on the grass courts.

His first match in 2018 saw Muller go down to a surprisingly easy defeat to Matthew Ebden and he did have some issues when it came to the serve that day. Playing against Marin Cilic will be a real challenge for Muller because he has the wingspan to get enough balls back in play and force Muller to hit more volleys than he is perhaps comfortable with.

Cilic is even more dangerous when looking at the stellar numbers produced by the Croatian on the grass courts since 2016. He dominated Fernando Verdasco in the First Round and playing a lefty will have given Cilic some idea of what to expect from Muller although the latter has a bigger first serve than Verdasco.

Last year Muller had an exceptional year when it comes to breaking on the grass courts but generally he is someone who has had issues when it comes to the return. If Cilic serves as he did in the First Round I think he can use the scoreboard pressure to find the two breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I think he is capable of doing that.

Covering is priced up at odds against and I think Cilic can do that with his returning ability on the grass courts and someone who has had considerable success against the Muller serve.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Dalila Jakupovic: This is a big number for Naomi Osaka to cover when you think of the limited success she has had on the grass courts in the past. Her opponent Dalila Jakupovic has come through the Qualifiers in Birmingham after having a successful week in Nottingham which makes her a dangerous opponent.

Any player who has come through the Qualifiers in back to back weeks is clearly playing with some confidence and so Jakupovic has to be respected. She has had some good wins on the grass courts with perhaps the biggest coming in the First Round in Birmingham as Jakupovic came from behind to beat Elise Mertens.

However the one defeat came to a quality player in Johanna Konta and I think Jakupovic may be playing an opponent who is much improved on the grass courts.

Osaka reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week and she had some very dominant wins on the grass courts in the last ten days which will have given her some confidence. The serve has always been a decent weapon for Osaka on this surface, but she is backing that up with some strong returning displays and I think that is going to be the key in helping her overcome this opponent and covering this number.

Jakupovic has some solid numbers behind serve and return, but they are slightly less effective than Osaka's numbers and I think that will show up in this match. It could have a similar feel to the way Jakupovic was beaten by Konta last week in Nottingham and I will back Osaka to cover here.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey Over 24.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 3.98 Units (30 Units Staked, + 13.27% Yield)

World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 19th-24th)

The World Cup has produced some memorable moments already with a classic match between Portugal and Spain the highlight of the opening games played, at the time of writing at least.

England's late winner over Tunisia did capture the imagination of the nation considering some of the issues the favourites have had in the opening Group games with Argentina, Spain, Germany and Brazil all failing to win their first Group matches despite opening the tournament as four of the top five favourites in the outright markets.

None of those nations should be panicking right now, but it just goes to show how well England did to break down Tunisia and deservedly pick up the three points with one of the better all around performances produced so far.

In this thread I will place all the Group Picks from the second round robin of games which can be the pivotal games as far as qualification for the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals are concerned.


Tuesday 19th June
Russia v Egypt Pick: The World Cup opened with the hosts hammering Saudi Arabia 5-0 and that has left a few more options on the table for Russia as far as this game is concerned.

At the beginning of the tournament it was felt Russia and Egypt were going to be fighting it out for the second Last 16 spot behind Uruguay and that remains the case. I don't want to go overboard about Russia's win over Saudi Arabia as the Asian Qualifiers looked distinctly short of the quality required at this level, while Russia scored their last three goals relatively late on to produce the 5-0 win.

That margin of victory eases the pressure on Russia, especially after seeing Egypt lose 0-1 to Uruguay late in the second game in Group A. Where a point might not have been what they were looking for from this game prior to the tournament, Russia should be very much happy to do that now knowing they have such a strong goal difference to fall back upon.

If Uruguay expectedly beat Saudi Arabia, the point may also mean Russia are in a comfortable position to avoid defeat to the top team in the section which would also guarantee a place in the Last 16. It is going to take a huge effort from Egypt to pick themselves up from the late loss to Uruguay even if Mohamed Salah is back in contention for a starting spot having failed to even come off the bench last Friday.

Russia look short at the prices to win this match as far as I am concerned, even if Egypt could leave spaces to exploit if chasing the game late on. It is easy to get carried away by Russia's performance against Saudi Arabia, but I think this is a much more difficult challenge for them and they may realise the importance of avoiding defeat rather than overcommitting and being beaten.

Having a small interest in the draw looks the way to go about this match, a result which would almost put the hosts through to the Last 16.


Wednesday 20th June
Portugal v Morocco Pick: There were contrasting emotions for Portugal and Morocco out of the first games in Group B as Portugal came from behind to earn a late equaliser against Spain hours after Morocco conceded an injury time goal to lose to Iran.

The draw in the other game means Morocco are far from out of the World Cup Finals, but obviously there is a blow in losing to what is considered the 'weakest' team in the section. Facing two big European nations in the final two games is a tough spot for Morocco, but a win would put them in a strong position going into the final game against Spain.

Beating Portugal looks a tough task for Morocco who looked very good against Iran and made all the running, but there was a little lack of quality in the final third which is a worry. Now they face two more tough defences and it won't be easy for Morocco to create great chances like they had against Iran.

Lacking composure in the final third will be a tough spot from which Morocco could earn the result they need to prolong their chances of earning a Last 16 spot in the World Cup. A defeat would guarantee Morocco are going home at the end of the next week, while a draw would mean having to beat Spain in the final Group game.

Morocco will have to take chances in this one against the European Champions and they need to do a better job containing Cristiano Ronaldo than Spain managed last Friday. Ronaldo remains the key figure for Portugal, but there were some nice attacking moments around the World Player of the Year which will be encouraging to the fans who want a deep World Cup run.

Portugal may have had to ride their luck to get a result against Spain, but a similar level of performance should be good enough to beat Morocco who will have to take chances. I expect Morocco will look to sit in deep initially and try and counter Portugal, but a draw is not really a great result for them and I think that means Portugal should have more opportunities to counter them and earn the three points that will give them every chance of making it out of the Group.

I did have some decent hopes for Morocco prior to the tournament, but the loss in the opener has put them in a very tough position. If they had won they could have maintained shape in this one and tried to frustrate Portugal, but the defeat means Morocco have to take chances in this one and I think the European team punish them.

There is a worry that Portugal are a cautious team by nature that they sit back on a narrow lead and potentially get caught late, but I think they are more likely to find something on the counter attack with the pace they have in forward positions. Backing Portugal to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick from this Group B game.


Uruguay v Saudi Arabia Pick: This looks to be a mismatch on paper especially if Saudi Arabia are anything as bad as they were in the opening World Cup Group game.

They are a team that did not play well away from home in the Qualifiers and that has been shown up in Russia already when battered 5-0 by the hosts. The defending was almost criminal with so many mistakes made at the back that were exploited by Russia and both Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani must be licking their lips as both bid to get their World Cup scoring off the mark.

Both had chances in the opener for Uruguay, but it was a central defender who helped Uruguay beat Egypt with a late winner. The Egyptians can be frustrating defensively, but Uruguay did have the chances to win that game much earlier than they did and if they can pick up from where they left off I do like Uruguay to win this one comfortably.

In a friendly prior to the World Cup they beat Uzbekistan 3-0 and I would imagine Uruguay are good enough to match that margin of victory again. It will mean their final game with Russia is almost a dead rubber, but Uruguay will be looking to win the Group and will know goal difference could be a potential tiebreaker if Egypt have beaten Russia the day before.

There does look a clear difference in quality and I expect Uruguay to start much better than they did in the 1-0 win over Egypt. Backing Uruguay to win and cover the Asian Handicap is the play knowing the stake will be returned if they only win by a couple of goals on the day. Personally I expect a three plus margin of victory so backing Uruguay on the Asian Handicap looks a no brainer for me.


Iran v Spain Pick: After some difficult moments in the first half, Iran's manager Carlos Queiroz must have given himself a pat on the back with a game plan that produced a clean sheet and then a win with the only shot on goal in the second half. That is only the second World Cup win for Iran and one that means they can set up exactly as they like against the two European nations they finish up the Group with.

First up is Spain who showed immense quality going forward against Portugal in the 3-3 draw last Friday, although they will want better from the defensive areas of the pitch. That defence may not be challenged as much as they were by Cristiano Ronaldo and company a few days ago though and instead the onus will be on Spain to break down what is likely to be two banks of five in front of them.

No one should blame Iran for that as they will know a point here would be a real boost and one that could potentially put them in line for a place in the Last 16. Four years ago they frustrated Argentina before conceding an injury time goal to Lionel Messi, but I expect a similarly organised defensive unit who will look to prevent Spain from picking their way through them.

There will be some threat from Iran with the pace they have in forward areas, but the game plan will mean they are likely to sit deep and try to grind out a result. I can see the forwards getting isolated the longer the game goes on and Iran will look for set pieces to make an impact on this one, but ultimately the game will be dictated by Spain.

Queiroz is someone who will organise Iran to be a difficult team to break down so I am not anticipating this will be easy for Spain. However I did like the way Spain reacted to the loss of their manager in the overall performance against Portugal and I expect that will be good enough to see them break down this Iran team.

With Diego Costa up front, Spain have a different way to attack the Iran defence than simply passing them to death as they would have done when winning the World Cup in 2010. We saw that impact in the game with Portugal and I think Spain will be able to work their way through Iran as Morocco did and I like the European team to win this by at least a couple of goals.


Thursday 21st June
Denmark v Australia Pick: At the start of Group C I thought France was going to be the team who likely dominate things and then it would be Peru and Denmark who fight it out for the second place.

The Danes rode their luck at times to somehow come away with a 1-0 win over Peru in the opening game, but that isn't a guarantee they are going to make it through the section. While it is a big three points, Australia showed enough in their opening defeat to France to think they can make Denmark think about things in the second game in the Group.

With France still to play in the Group, Denmark may not be able to afford to settle for a draw as much it may seem, especially if Peru can either upset France. Even if they don't, a draw leaves the door open for Australia who have the kind of quality from set pieces that makes them very dangerous.

I do question the attacking quality of both of these teams, but they have shown they can create chances and take the opportunities when they come. I expect the same to happen here and I would not be surprised at all if both teams score in this one with the Australian team likely having to take a few more risks than Denmark.

However I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out between them on Thursday afternoon. Denmark showed some real vulnerabilities at the back against Peru who should have scored at least one, but possibly two goals with the clear chances they had, while the Danes also had some quality going the other way.

This Australia team have been used to scoring and conceding and they continued that in the opener against France. They will cause some problems, but I think Australia are a team who are still very vulnerable at the back as they showed in some of their bigger World Cup Qualifiers and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


France v Peru Pick: Anyone who thinks Peru were not hard done by in their opening World Cup game must have been watching a different game to me as I thought they were the better team when they faced Denmark. The defeat has left them in a difficult position in the Group when going up against the favourites in this section in the second game and Peru will know exactly what they need to give them a chance to make it through to the Last 16 prior to kick off.

In reality Peru would like to see Australia beat Denmark which would mean Peru are alive in the final round robin of games in the Group regardless of what happens here. That would also give the players the chance to express themselves against France in this game knowing they can play with the freedom of still having a chance of progressing from the Group no matter what.

However any other result than an Australia win would mean Peru have to find a result against France and I think that is going to be difficult for the South American nation who have been a revelation over the last twelve months. I don't doubt Peru can create chances against a France defence that looked nervous when facing Australia, but defensively Peru looked like they could struggle when facing the kind of attacking talent they will see in this fixture.

France should be playing with more freedom than they did against Australia as they perhaps started the tournament nervously. A win will have settled those nerves a little bit and this team is about as good as any Peru would have faced in Qualifying.

Peru did beat Uruguay in the World Cup Qualifiers and drew with Argentina twice, but Brazil managed to get the better of them in both home and away Qualifiers. I think the style of play will suit France much more than Australia's style which was set up to first contain France.

In this one I expect Peru will look to get the ball down and take the game to France and I think it will be an entertaining game in the Group. Ultimately I think France will have a little too much strength overall for Peru and I think they will show much better than in their win over Australia.

With the attacking threat that both teams can possess, I would be surprised if a single goal is enough for France and I will back them to win a game which features at least three goals shared out at odds against.


Argentina v Croatia Pick: Coming into the World Cup Argentina were considerable favourites to beat Croatia but the results in the opening Group game means they have drifted to odds against in some places.

They still look short as far as I am concerned when you think how much panic set in at the back whenever Iceland attacked Argentina in the first half. It was no surprise Iceland perhaps drifted backwards in the second half as they protected what score they had, but the lack of clear chances fashioned by Argentina will be a concern too.

I worried for Argentina prior to the start of the tournament and nothing much has changed my mind. This fixture is much tougher than the opener because Croatia will have a midfield that can control things and they should have a little more quality further up the pitch than Iceland which can give a vulnerable Argentina defence a lot of problems.

On the other hand the attacking intent of Croatia's should be much greater than Iceland's too and that should mean a little more space for the Argentina attackers which is where the strength of the team lies. Argentina will need more from Lionel Messi, but they also need some of the other talent in those areas to step up and show they can support Messi instead of relying on him to create the magic on his own.

Both teams to score is not the outrageous price it was for Argentina's first game, but at odds against that still looks very generous in this one. You also have to say Argentina look very short to win the game considering the problems they have been having for some time now and Croatia looking as good as they did in the first game as well as having some real quality in midfield who can dictate the tempo of this fixture.

For those who like the big prices, Croatia to win and both teams to score is a massive 9.00!!

However I think we should keep things simple here- I think both teams will score and I also think Croatia will avoid defeat. The last two friendly games between these nations have both featured at least three goals and I think the situation here means we could see an open game on Thursday with both teams having enough about them to combine for three or more goals.

1-1 will suit Croatia, but Argentina would be left very vulnerable if the result goes against them in the other Group game between Nigeria and Iceland and I think the onus is on the South American nation to attack. That is all well and good, but their defence looks vulnerable enough already and I think Croatia could exploit them on the counter attack if Argentina take too many risks.

We have to respect the attacking talent Argentina have too which makes them a threat to score the goals needed to win the game, and I think backing at least three goals shared out looks a big price.


Friday 22nd June
Brazil v Costa Rica Pick: There are some more concerns around the fitness of Neymar who had to limp out of a training session this week but I would expect the Samba star to take his place in the starting line up. It is a big day for Brazil who look to get back on track in the Group having drawn 1-1 with Switzerland in the first game, but they will need a better all around performance from the team.

One of my criticisms of the performance was the way Neymar was trying too hard and thus making some poor decisions with the ball. He would dribble when he should pass, pass when he should shoot or shoot when there were other options around and I think that is the pressure most Brazilian players feel after the way the 2014 World Cup finished.

Neymar needs to settle down a little bit and I think Brazil will be alright with the players they have in the squad.

Even though not at their absolute best, Brazil did create enough chances to steal the win over Switzerland and there won't be any panic. They are facing what looks to be the weakest team in the Group after Costa Rica were beaten 0-1 by Serbia and a similar level of performance could see them really struggle.

While Costa Rica had their moments, defensively they looked out of sorts and I think they will find it tough to contain this Brazil team who have a game under their belt in Russia. Even if Neymar is unable to take part, I think Brazil have plenty of players who can produce at this level to help them not only win, but win with some comfort.

Costa Rica took a couple of heavy losses in their final international friendlies in preparation for the World Cup and they could have lost by a significant margin against Serbia if the latter had taken the chances that came their way. I don't think Brazil will be as loose in the forward areas as Serbia were, especially not after missing some decent chances against Switzerland, and I will back Brazil on the Asian Handicap.


Nigeria v Iceland Pick: Neither Nigeria or Iceland won their opening World Cup game in 2018, but there is a completely different feel in both squads going into the pivotal second game.

While Nigeria looked as poor as any team in the World Cup Finals with a lack of intensity meaning they were comfortably dismissed by Croatia, Iceland have shown plenty of heart and determination to earn a 1-1 draw with Argentina.

It means the situation is much clearer for Nigeria who know they will be out of the tournament if they lose this game while they will be on the brink of elimination with a draw. With Argentina the remaining game after this one, anything other than a win would likely see the end of Nigeria's ambitions in Russia which would be a huge disappointment to their fans around the world.

Iceland may feel they need to win this game too, but they have a little more room for error knowing they have beaten Croatia already in the World Cup Qualifiers. However they won't want the pressure of being in a 'must win' situation in the final round of Group games so the win is going to be important to Iceland too which means we have the ingredients for a very positive match.

As well as Iceland have defended as a unit, they will offer up some chances and Nigeria have pace and better quality in the final third than they showed against Croatia. You have to think they will have an all around better performance anyway as no team can be that poor twice, while Nigeria will have seen a much changed Ghana score twice in a recent friendly in Iceland.

On the other hand Iceland will be very much believing they can create chances against a lacklustre Nigerian team and I am leaning towards the European nation finding the win in this one. However I don't think they will have it all their own way considering the number of goals Iceland have been conceding in recent months and the layers may be underestimating the kind of performance I expect Nigeria to make all over the pitch.

Both teams to score is odds against, but I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out. I do think both teams will have their chances to score and expect both to do that, but the situation means the 1-1 is not an ideal score for either team and so I can see both teams taking chances to try and win this fixture.

If the Argentina-Croatia game is a draw on Thursday you may want to consider changing your pick to both teams to score, which should be possible by laying off this selection on one of the more popular exchanges out there.

However I am anticipating there being a winner in the other game and that should mean these two teams are well aware of the importance of the three points here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Serbia v Switzerland Pick: Most expected Brazil to run away with the Group with these two nations fighting it out for second place between them, but the opening games results means it is Serbia who are in pole position to make it through to the Last 16.

A win on Friday will put Serbia into the Second Round at the World Cup but any other result means Switzerland are likely favourites to at least finish above the Serbs in the Group. The point earned against Brazil is a priceless one for Switzerland who are a team who punch above their weight, but they need to back up that performance having failed to get out of the Group in 2010 despite beating Spain in the opening game.

That was an upset result against the favourites to win the World Cup and they have done the same in 2018, but the expectation is that Switzerland can work their way through to the Last 16.

They will be looking to expose some of the defensive vulnerabilities that Serbia displayed in the win over Costa Rica who were punished for a lack of composure in the final third. The defensive play was always a big concern for Serbia heading into the tournament, but Switzerland have to find more from the forward areas with goals a problem for them.

I do think Switzerland will get opportunities from set pieces and I do think they can cause Serbia one or two questions that they could find tough to answer. However I also expect Serbia to continue attacking with the verve they showed in the opening game and there is some real talent in the final third which makes Serbia an interesting proposition in this tournament.

They created some huge chances against Costa Rica but they also lacked some composure when the opportunities came their way. I would expect better from Serbia when those chances come in this game and I think this could be a better game than it perhaps looks like on paper.

Both teams will likely take risks as the importance of the three points won't be lost on them. The draw would definitely suit Switzerland more than Serbia so expect the latter to make the running which could leave spaces to be exploited by Switzerland and I am going to back this game featuring at least three goals on Friday evening.


Saturday 23rd June
Belgium v Tunisia Pick: The opening 35 minutes of the Tunisia match with England could have seen the African nation down by two or three goals, but they settled into the match and perhaps feel a little unfortunate to have been beaten as late as they did.

In truth it was a deserved win for England as Tunisia looked to defend in numbers and frustrate their opponents in the second half, but it was a wastefulness in front of goal which really hurt England.

The Tunisians cannot expect the same from Belgium who are one of the higher scoring nations coming out of Europe and who found a way to wear down and beat Panama 3-0 in their opening Group game. Belgium were far from at their best in that game, but I am going to put that down to nervousness and I expect they will be much better in this fixture as they were against Panama once taking the lead.

With the quality Belgium have in the forward areas they will certainly feel they can match the chances that England created when they faced this team. Tunisia won't make it easy for Belgium, but they don't have a lot of threat going the other way and I expect Belgium to dominate the ball and find a way to grind down the Tunisian defence.

There were also some real concerns for Tunisia whenever England got a set piece or corners too and that could be the case again when you think of the quality of delivery that Belgium have. They also have a big team who can cause problems from those set pieces and I do think Belgium could profit as England did.

In this one Tunisia will likely have to take a few more risks too as they look for a positive result and everything points to Belgium winning and by a margin that slightly betters England's win over Tunisia. With the sides settled into the tournament after putting one game in the books I think Belgium begin much more assured than they did against Panama and I am going to back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


South Korea v Mexico Pick: There wasn't a lot of hope for a deep run at the World Cup Finals for South Korea prior to the tournament and those hopes would have lessened considerably off the back of the 0-1 defeat to Sweden.

A line up that was still not settled and a manager who didn't know his best formation was not ideal preparation for South Korea and the team struggled in the first game. If it wasn't for some poor finishing from Sweden, South Korea would have been beaten very handily and the competition gets tougher for them in the remaining Group games.

Poor finishing almost cost Mexico the chance of a big upset in the opening game but they hung on to beat Germany 1-0 and take command of this Group. The hopes back home is that Mexico can return to the Quarter Final of the World Cup having suffered six consecutive Last 16 defeats and winning the Group would be a huge step to achieving the 'quinto partido' the fans so desire.

The pace and quality of play up until the final shot cannot be dismissed and I expect Mexico will be able to create a number of chances in this Group game against a South Korean team that struggled against Sweden. It may be easier for South Korea without the physicality with which Sweden play, but I still expect Mexico to create chances and look for the second win which will give them one foot into the Last 16 ahead of the final Group game.

My feeling was that South Korea would struggle for goals at the World Cup and they looked a team destined for an early exit. I expect them to be on the brink of exit by Saturday evening and that will be contributed to by Mexico's win over them.


Germany v Sweden Pick: This is almost an ideal situation for Sweden having earned three points in their opening Group game and facing a desperate opponent in the next game. Of course many are expecting Germany to bounce back from their shock 0-1 defeat to Mexico, but Sweden will be comfortable knowing they can play their natural game and look to frustrate their opponents.

It was the style Sweden used to beat Italy 1-0 on aggregate in the World Cup Play Offs and I imagine they will sit in deep and hope to counter Germany when the latter perhaps get a little desperate. For the first hour the key for Sweden is to make sure they have the clean sheet and I expect some strong defending from the Swedes in this one.

They will have some chances to cause problems for Germany from set pieces too but I am also expecting a much better performance from the defending Champions than we saw against Mexico. It may suit them playing a team who won't spring from defence to attack nearly as quickly as Mexico did in the first game and I would be surprised if Germany are not able to wear down Sweden in this one.

Germany have some real quality in the midfield areas who can pick the right passes to get through opponents and a team sitting back may just allow them to dictate the tempo with a little more belief than they had against Mexico. I don't think Sweden have the same quality on the counter attack as Mexico displayed and I do think Germany win this game to get back into contention in the Group.

Backing Germany on the Asian Handicap or backing them to win with a clean sheet are both odds against and I like Germany in both markets. The recent German defensive performances are a slight concern, but I think Sweden's goal will be to keep a clean sheet and so I am not sure they will have enough opportunities to expose those defensive concerns for the defending Champions.

At the price I think it is worth backing Germany to win with the clean sheet.


Sunday 24th June
England v Panama Pick: There are a number of mismatches in the World Cup Group Stage which will only be exasperated when the tournament is expanded to 48 nations, but you can't take anything away from Panama having their moment in the sun.

They absolutely deserve their place in the World Cup Finals although it is clear they are some way short of the quality needed to really challenge the top two European nations in the Group. Panama did well to hold Belgium goalless through the first half of the opening game, but the older players perhaps tired as the game wore on and they are in for another test of their fitness on Sunday.

England made harder work of Tunisia than they perhaps should have having created a number of wide open chances before a controversial penalty was awarded against them. It then took some time to break down Tunisia, but the win will be huge for the confidence and I fully expect England to win this match and win fairly comfortably.

The pace in the forward areas will make life tough for Panama to contain England and I think it is much harder to defend with the same passion Panama did in the first game when you have already chased the ball around for 90 minutes a few days earlier.

I expect England to settle into this game very much as they did against Tunisia and this time I would expect a little more composure in the final third which could see England win well. I will back England to cover the Asian Handicap which offers a profit if England win by two goals and a bigger one if they win by three goals or more.

I'm leaning towards the latter being the margin of victory in this one so backing England on the Asian Handicap makes easy sense for me.


Japan v Senegal Pick: The World Cup has seen a number of upsets already through the first round robin fixtures in the Group Stage, but Group H may have been the most open Group prior to the tournament. So while I accept both results in the opening round of Group games were surprises, it is perhaps not of the same magnitude as seeing the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Germany fail to win their first games.

Japan got the better of Colombia thanks to the second fastest red card in history and Senegal later beat Poland which means these two nations come into this fixture knowing they can almost secure a spot in the Last 16 with a win.

I would be surprised if either was too keen on the draw especially as they play this match before the other Group game is contested. If there is a winner in that match, the draw won't suit one of these teams and I have a feel both camps will look at the other as the best chance to put another win on the board in this Group.

Japan are perhaps the team that will take the draw more than Senegal with the feeling they have beaten the best team in the Group. They were very much considered the also-rans in the Group at the start of play and I am not going to get too giddy about their win over Colombia and simply put it down to the situation of facing a team with ten more for almost ninety full minutes.

I don't think Japan are as good as the result suggested and they really did struggle before Colombia perhaps tired. That won't be the case against Senegal who showed huge amounts of energy in their win over Poland and I expect the camp to be bouncing having beaten a real contender for a Last 16 berth.

Senegal hadn't been at their best in recent friendly games, but the 2-0 win over South Korea will give them confidence. I expect their physicality to be very difficult for Japan to deal with and only another 'crazy' situation like Senegal being reduced to ten men for the majority of the game or something like that is likely to be the reason Japan can stay with them.

The African nation showed enough against Poland to think they can find the right plays to break down this Japanese team who may sit back and hope to contain Senegal. That isn't going to be easy against this team who have a threat from set pieces and plenty of pace out wide and I do like Senegal to win the game and perhaps secure their Last 16 spot by the end of Sunday evening.

This was a much bigger price pre-tournament, but I still like Senegal at odds against to win this fixture.


Poland v Colombia Pick: The two favourites to get out of Group H both suffered a defeat in their opening Group games which means the losing team here is almost certainly going to be heading home at the end of the week.

That puts some real pressure on both Poland and Colombia, but could also mean a game featuring plenty of chances at both ends of the field with neither team being able to settle for a draw and any team chasing the game having to take risks.

You have to expect better from Poland- while they weren't as poor as Saudi Arabia and Panama, those nations didn't come into the tournament with anything near the expectations Poland did. I would put them alongside Nigeria as the most disappointing of the teams in the first round of Group games and I would like to think the manager will get into them and ask for much better in this one.

Colombia will also be looking for more, but there is some sympathy with their plight after Carlos Sanchez was sent off in the first three minutes of the defeat to Japan. They didn't look a bad team, but tired as the game went on, while James Rodriguez has a few more days to get over the injury issue which forced him into a substitute role in the first game.

There is much to like about Colombia and I think they are far from out of the tournament even after losing the first game. History is against them, but there is some real talent in forward areas and I think they will give Poland plenty of problems when you think of the poor defensive record in Qualifiers and the way they played in the opening game.

With the situation as it is, Poland have to take chances too which will only expose those issues at the back and I am anticipating this being yet another Group H fixture which features at least three goals shared out. Both teams should have chances with the high profile attacking players at their disposal and I think this could be a decent game as an effective 'knock out' fixture with the losing team almost certainly going home.

Some teams may play a little more conservatively under those conditions, but I think the fact both lost their opening game means they will take chances to avoid any draw and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Russia-Egypt Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Portugal - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Uruguay - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Spain - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark-Australia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
France to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Argentina-Croatia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brazil - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nigeria-Iceland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Serbia-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mexico - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Senegal @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Poland-Colombia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin Two Update: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)